SocraticGadfly: Abbott (Greg)
Showing posts with label Abbott (Greg). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Abbott (Greg). Show all posts

November 26, 2025

CAIR suing Greg Abbott

That's the big story, to me, out of Strangeabbott declaring the Council on American-Islamic Relations, and the Muslim Brotherhood, as "transnational terror organizations" then directing his butt-flunkies at DPS to open an criminal investigation against both.

That latter is clearly a page out of Donald the Demented's playbook.

The former? First, since Strangeabbott is not a president of a country (contra Tex-ass exceptionalism of the Texas nationalist type of wet dreams) is nugatory, first of all. 

It's also baseless, even per Donald the Demented's State Department:

Neither the Muslim Brotherhood nor CAIR is listed on the U.S. State Department’s list of terrorist groups.

There you are. 

It's also bullshit:

Abbott also said the investigation will target people or groups “who unlawfully impose Sharia law,” which he said violates the Texas Constitution.

Because these groups don't do that. 

Speaking of? This part:

Murtaza Sutarwalla, president of the Muslim Bar Association of Houston, spoke at the same news conference and rejected Abbott’s “repeated claims that the Sharia law is banned in Texas.”

Is true. 

Federal law allows the use of private religious law between consenting private religious individuals and authorities.   

Strangeabbott is either legally ignorant himself, playing off others' ignorance, or some combination. 

Ditto for him attempting to fuse and conflate CAIR and the Muslim Brotherhood. 

Here's the bottom-line legal angle:

Abbott’s declaration opens up an array of potential constitutional issues, said Emily Berman, a professor at the University of Houston Law Center. Limiting property purchases based on viewpoints and religious affiliation could prove problematic under the First Amendment and the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause. 
“What is the motivation of these designations?” Berman said. “Is it about their religious views? Is it about their viewpoints on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which would be another First Amendment red flag? You can’t discriminate on the basis of someone’s viewpoint.” 
The designation also raises due process concerns, Berman said, given that it’s not clear how groups can formally challenge the designation. 
The U.S. Secretary of State holds the power to designate a group a foreign terrorist organization, though they must notify Congress and publish the designation in the Federal Register. An organization can appeal that designation within 30 days of that publication. 
It’s not clear whether such a process exists at the state level. In the order, Abbott said he consulted with Freeman Martin, Texas Department of Public Safety director, and the state’s Homeland Security Council to determine whether to make the designation as required under state law. Whether groups can appeal the state-level designations is unclear. 
It’s possible CAIR, for example, could challenge the law in court by arguing the state is overstepping its bounds by making laws around national security matters, Berman said.

Period. End of story. 

The second story? 

As I told Kuff in commenting on his Off the Kuff story about Abbott's original proclamation, we all know what this is about: Palestine and Palestinians. The dog that IS barking, repeatedly, in Texas and that Kuff refuses to write about. And, Kuff and other Democraps who refuse to talk about the barking dog only encourage mouthbreathers like Strangeabbott and Legiscritter Cole Hefner.

Happy Thanksgiving, you bigotry and genocide fellow traveler. 

See, Abbott is one of many modern American conservative cafeteria Catholics who have approached modern fundagelical Protestants on many issues, including Israel and Zionism, even though Rome, like old mainline Protestant churches, is officially amillennial on the book of Revelation. 

Per the bullshit above, though, Abbott would turn a blind eye toward a Kiryeas Joel in Tex-ass. 

June 18, 2024

Texas Progressives talk abortion, elections, more

So, alt-white wingnuts, the True Texas Project, schedule conference for next month in Cowtown, at city-owned Botanic Gardens. Multiple speakers say they were unaware of full agenda and other speakers, including the alt-whites. They cancel. Organizers pull the plug, even while the Botanic Garden says we won't host this racialist dreck. Then? TTP lawyers approach City of Fort Worth, which says "it's back on." That said, the people claiming they were unaware? Like Todd Bensman at the Center for Immigration Studies, which itself has a racist and eugenicist past? Not buying it.

Off the Kuff reminds you that your school district's budget crunch is Greg Abbott's fault

SocraticGadfly talks about Mark Lee Dickson's abortion sanctuary city lies and grift

Stace, offers his memories of Tejano Pioneer Johnny Canales, who passed away last week.

If there were a hell, Paul Pressler would have headed straight to it with his death last week. Sadly, there isn't, and still-living Southern Baptist enablers of him won't go there either.

Gilberto Hinojosa, skipper of the SS Texas Dem Minnow, has plenty of clueless Gilligans with him if party leaders think they can flip the state House over school vouchers. Reason No. 944 Texas Dems have remained in a statewide majority for more than 25 years and counting.

Who might buy Infowars now that Alex Jones is being forced to sell? No. 1 on the list of possibles Dan Solomon considers is a rich nutbar like Elmo Musk. Would Musk do it himself? Roger Stone says he's trying to put together a consortium. Other possibilities are more off the wall.

What is there to say about the Supreme Court calling unconstitutional the ATF action banning bump stocks even though even the NRA liked it at the time?

Well, there's the Supreme Court decision essentially letting Team Biden lie to Ill Eagles about court dates.

Eric Johnson doubles down on being a junior wingnut, all while refusing to talk about his city of Dallas losing population.

Neil at Houston Democracy Project said it is a given Houston’s many license plate monitor cameras will be used for repression in an each-day more conceivable authoritarian situation. (Yeah, not that likely, no matter what the ACLU says; at least that one wasn't as stupid as last week.)

 The Bloggess has another Laura Perea update.  

In the Pink would have had some good questions for Martha-Ann Alito, too. 

 Texas 2036 answers your questions about our electric grid. Sort of. Nuclear's not an answer, and small nuclear even less so. Plus, any article that fails to mention Tex-ass was once part of the national grid, fails to suggest that now, and fails to talk about why it's not so is a fail.

The Fort Worth Report eulogizes legendary Fort Worth ISD coach Robert Hughes, the winningest coach in U.S. high school boys basketball history. 

Scott Braddock congratulates Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton for handing Donald Trump "one of the most embarrassing losses of his political career". 

The new CityCast Austin podcast talks to Shanisha Johnson, the public relations and volunteer coordinator for Central Texas Juneteenth, and to Evil MoPac about Cybertrucks.

March 07, 2024

Texas Progressives' non-primary Roundup thoughts

Income inequality in America is probably EVEN WORSE than even a Piketty says.

The State Bar of Texas fined and gave a probated suspension to Starr County DA Gocha Ramirez for his attempt to prosecute for murder a woman doing a home-brew abortion. Cue the wingnut dogwhistles about the state bar.

SocraticGadfly has a roundup of duopoly and third-party/independent presidential thoughts.

Federal judge David Ezra hit the pause button on the unconstitutional SB4, pushed on the House side by my legiscritter, lawyer David Spiller. Above all, he rejected the idea that Texas is being "invaded" by Ill Eagles in any legal sense. At the Monthly, Forrest Wilder says the border crisis is the best thing that happened to Strangeabbott. The Fifth Circuit quickly reversed, but paused that a week for the Biden Administration to appeal to SCOTUS.

Ivan Cantu is the latest possibly innocent man executed by Texas.

The RRC continues to boast about plugging abandoned wells even as it continues to try to dump responsibility for which wells are under its oversight.

It's looking more likely that Kenny Boy Paxton will primary John Cornyn in two years, even though Big John is more Trumpy than Havana Ted Cruz. (How a conviction in his securities trial next month would be worked around remains to be seen. Cornyn referenced that in Tweeting back at Kenny Boy that "It's hard to run from prison, Ken!" AFAIK, Big John, not staff, does many of his tweets.)

Off the Kuff interprets Greg Abbott's incoherent BS about IVF.

CVS and Walgreens are about to start selling mifepristone, the primary abortion by medications drug.

Sorry, Caitlin Clark, but #RockChalk Lynette Woodard and fuck the NCAA.

Credit where credit is due: Genocide Joe is actually doing something on student loans.

Neil at the Houston Democracy Project asked how Houston police & Mayor Whitmire would respond to Trump's openly-planned mass round-ups of migrants. 

The Texas Tribune tells you how to help and how to stay safe in the Panhandle during the wildfires.

Ryan Puzucki reports from the YMIBY conference in Austin.

The Texas Living Waters Project brings highlights from their first Texas Water Trust Workshop. 

The Dallas Observer listened to Ted Cruz's podcast with Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson so you don't have to.

And, a late primary thought: As seen in the San Antonio Current, via Kuff, Biden, more than "uncommitted," had an expressly pro-Palestinian candidate among his Texas opposition. I'm not a Doink, but if I had known more about the platform of Armando Perez-Serrato in advance, I would have publicized him. As I told the person quote-tweeted at the end of the piece, per SAC, the real question is what will the likes of Perez-Serrato do in November?

February 27, 2024

Paxton and Abbott anti-endorsements fray Texas GOP

That's even as they sometimes battle each other.

Per this piece, many of the wingnuts-squared who are running against wingnuts for state House seats, and with the endorsement of Abbott and/or Paxton, are deliberately stiffing media. My own House seat is interesting. Incumbent David Spiller, one of the House impeachment managers, nonetheless flip-flopped on vouchers in the last special session and has Abbott's endorsement. He's advertising in traditional media. His opponent, Kerri Kingsberry, a true whackadoodle wingnut squared, is not. It's also clear, per that piece, that many of these people actually believe the lies they tell. And, with her, not only is she not advertising in traditional media, I've not even seen any mailbox flyers. She's either really low on cash, or else it's a campaign of entirely visiting the new GOP's Kooky KonKlaves.

The Trib has another piece noting that the Paxton and/or Abbott endorsement vendetta is making tempers run raw among a number of rural House incumbents. Another is Travis Clardy, who's the flip of Spiller. He opposed impeachment, so has gotten Paxton's endorsement, but opposed vouchers all of the special sessions, so has earned Abbott's vindictiveness. As part of that, Abbott is getting called out, when he goes on the road, for having endorsed many of these incumbents now, and instead, running a single issue anti-endorsement. With Clardy, Paxton has been called out by a few wingnuts-squared for going soft.

The bottom line? Except in a few cases, like that of Rogers, most these anti-endorsements will fail. There will be more House-Senate divisiveness on vouchers, and after Paxton's trial, presuming he's convicted, more divisiveness there, as Dan Patrick will refuse to eat crow.

But, because billionaires flush with money (thanks Clinton and Obama for keeping Poppy Bush and Shrub Bush tax cuts in place) want to fuel these issues, and because Abbott's vindictiveness is well known, but only second to Patrick's, this won't stop.

And, with Glenn Rogers, it doesn't help that he beat Farris Wilks' son-in-law to first get in the House. (Wilks, for the unfamiliar, and his brother Dan, are the less visible tagalongs to Christofascist Tim Dunn.)

That is part of Chris Hooks' take on this. That said, I doubt this will radicalize the House that much, for reasons I note above. Most of these anti-endorsements will fail. Yeah, the general pressure of Wilks and Dunn is unremitting. But, the pushback is still there.

Nor will Democrats make any pickups directly related to this in cases where it does work. That's because Democrats have no candidates in most these places. If Mike Olcutt beats Glen Rogers, he's in. If Kingberry beats Spiller, she's in.

December 30, 2023

Texas Progressives vouch for Abbott with this year-end Roundup

The Trib takes a semi-deep dive on how Abbott lost the battle for vouchers in the House side of the Lege. TL/DR is that refusal to make the program limited and means-tested was the big failure. Part of this was Abbott eyeing the national stage. As if he had a chance for the presidency in 2024. What a chud. Of course, Christofascist Tim Dunn wouldn't want something like that, either, and neither would Dannie Goeb in the Senate. That said, contra Abbott's politically framed polling, the House GOP holdouts were hearing from constituents. Big question, not asked by the Trib: Per the stereotypical 5 percent of voters turning out for GOP primaries, what will the swing be in these districts? Two months ago, it might have mattered for me, but with David Spiller being a weaselly voucher-flipper in the last special, now it doesn't. Sidebar: Here's a list of House candidates Abbott, and Kenny Boy Paxton over his impeachment, are targeting.

I have followed Ballot Access News for years. Richard Winger has many smart observations. But, late last year? Setting aside issues of "ripeness" and whether courts should intervene in primaries as well as general elections, his post on the Colorado Supreme Court knocking Trump off the ballot essentially wants to make the 14th Amendment's portion on ballot disbarment nugatory. I told him it was the stupidest thing he's ever written.

How many lawyers are there in Fredericksburg? How many are lining up in San Antonio? Gillespie County's plan to hand-count votes in the March primary (and likely with ZERO extra money from the Secretary of State on the cost side) will be a clusterfuck that's gonna lead to lawsuits in close races.

SocraticGadfly looks at national and world politics and takes a deeper dive on the Supreme Court Dobbs ruling, Putin, and Israel-Gaza.

Channelview's Jacintoport area's been bombarded by Cancer Alley benzene for nearly 20 years that the state knew about and said nothing.

Off the Kuff reminds us again that there are no easy fixes to the disaster caused by Republican abortion bans, and that Republicans themselves cannot and will not do anything to try to make it less bad. 

Pandering Kenny Boy is on a trans health care fishing expedition against a Seattle hospital. Whichever of the more than two sides one is on, on this issue, this is just bogus.

In re Katie Cox, the Texas Supreme Court wants to hear from the Texas Medical Board. Whether they listen is another matter. The TMB has said it's punting while any cases are in the court system. That timidity is what Texas Rethuglicas want.

Trump getting booted from the Maine ballot is bigger than Colorado. It's a more swing-y state, among other things. And, it was done administratively, by the Maine Secretary of State; might make it harder to legally challenge.

Neil at the Houston Democracy Project said the extensive police powers of SB 4 well-serve an authoritarian vision. 

 The Dallas Observer salutes one "Concerned Parent in North Texas" for their service. 

The Texas Observer takes a deep dive into the career of Kelly Siegler, former Harris County prosecutor turned true crime TV star that's still doing the same old thing.  

Texas 2036 reviews some top stories in K-12 education. 

The Texas Living Waters Project does its year in review.  

In the Pink Texas discovers the true spirit of Christmas.

July 24, 2023

Cowards Biden and Garland vs Strangeabbott and McCraw

So, why hasn't President Joe Biden's Attorney General Merrick Garland publicly announced that he's starting a federal investigation into Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's blockading the Rio Grande and DPS Executive Director Steve McCraw's enforcement of it? Yeah, the DOJ says that Strangeabbott has until today to "commit to" (big loophole right there) removing it.

Update, this afternoon: Wallmonger Joe is suing, after all. Why no criminal charges?

Abbott's border offensive is probably not that effective, per the WSJ (as well as not being wanted by many Texas border counties and burning a hole in the budget) but it is inhumane. Border/Lines discusses in more detail, as well as discussing Biden and the Border Patrol.

Above and beyond that, why hasn't Biden told Strangeabbott: "Since you think you and McCraw are so damned good at border protection, I'm removing ALL Border Patrol from the Texas sector immediately"?

Reality? As places like Border/Lines have long reported, Biden has replaced Trump's Title 42 with a tech-neoliberal equivalent of it, and somebody in the White House knew that that's what Biden's craptacular-working smartphone app for asylum application would be. Jeff St. Clair talks more in the second half of last Friday's Roaming Charges.

Bottom line is that Appmonger Joe and Strangeabbott are playing kabuki theater with each other.

December 06, 2022

Biden and the border; Hypocrisy alert

Team Biden (maybe in part the Deep State within DOJ, but the buck has to stop somewhere) refused to make publicly available documents on the legal negotiations re the Fisher private border wall until threatened with legal action. The new story on that makes pretty clear why, IMO; Biden doesn't want to actually remove the wall.

Sounds like the tonks at the Border Patrol are abetting Strangeabbott and the DPS on locking up Ill Eagles. Be nice if Biden fired more people. Be nice if he also pushed to restore mandatory service location rotations. Neither is likely to happen. For a mix of political reasons and, I believve, personal belief, Biden's actually pretty hardcore on border issues, at least for a Democrat.

Speaking of tonks and hypocrisy, or something, Kyrsten Sinema would indeed think it's a grand compromise to help out the Dreamers, in exchange for BOTH extending Title 42 another year (at least, could be more!) AND giving the tonks even more money than Trump was asking for in his 2018 proposal. Also, any idea that allegedly "immigration moderate" Rethugs like Cornyn will buy in, as long as he's claiming Biden's not enforcing the border, is baloney.

October 24, 2022

Thoughts on this year's races as early voting starts

This will incorporate reflections on the polls at right, and also build on my "Gadfly slate" of last Friday.

First, here in Tex-ass, statewide offices.

I'm not yet ready to say Strangeabbott's odds against Beto-Bob are in above 80 percent, but they are at 70-79 percent. And, barring Kenny Boy Paxton busted for fucking the wife of a Republican official, if Strangeabbott wins, so does every other statewide Rethuglican. Jeebus Shot Sid Miller wins. Wayne "Oil Wells Are" Christian wins. Kenny Boy wins. So do others.

The Lege? I'm not analyzing 150 House races, or even 31 Senate races. Let's say the GOP gains two in the House and holds serve in the Senate. Dade Phelan holds on as Speaker.

Nationally? New inflation concerns, thanks to the latest OPEC cuts, plus tight diesel stocks, have slackened the sails of earlier Democratic tailwinds, as Jeet Heer notes at The Nation, with me discussing in more detail here. So, I've revised downward thoughts I had just a week ago.

And, I mentioned "denialism" in Nancy Pelosi's take on the inflation issue. Susan Glasser at New Yorker applies that word to Warmonger Joe's take on the whole election.

The Senate, I think, odds are about 50 percent it stays 50-50. I had originally had this at a bit above 50-50 that Dems hold serve or improve.

The House poll was the first one I started, when inflation was really bad. Wingnut nominees on the GOP side stand better chances in the House than the Senate. Inflation dipped, but now, gas prices have crept back up. I don't think Dems will lose 50, but, losing 40 wouldn't surprise me.

This could well make Kevin McCarthy as Speaker a slightly loonier, yet ultimately as wingnut-squared-challenged, as Boozing Boehner or Eddie Muenster Ryan. With that big of a majority, the Lauren Boeberts (if re-elected) and Marjorie Taylor Greenes will run wild and might not even be the worst.

Of course, that would relieve Nancy Pelosi of the onus of considering violating her pledge to step down as Speaker. It would also relieve AOC of the onus of having to vote against her, if she did that, in an even tighter House.

Abbott expands lead on Beto-Bob and why? "It's the economy, stupid"

Well, that's not the only reason, but that's a good starting point for why Greg Abbott, aka Strangeabbott, is up 11 points among likely voters in the Texas gov's race vs. Beto O'Rourke, aka Beto-Bob. (Per my "Gadfly slate" post Friday, this confirms that I'm likely to undervote this race. O'Rourke isn't going to win, and he's been a panderer deluxe on the campaign trail; as for options to him, I'm not voting for Second Amendment absolutist Delilah Barrios, even if she is a green. (Hold that thought; I'll have more on the Texas Green Party after the election.)

It may not be fair, per details of the polling, that the environment is the only thing voters trust Beto-Bob on more than Strangeabbott. But, there it is. And, the 50-50 split among Hispanic voters show that, whether it's a real concern or one inflated by Strangeabbott, Hispanics are concerned about immigration, even if Operation Lone Star really isn't doing much.

A 55 percent majority even supports Strange's busing of Ill Eagles out of state.

As for the header? "The state economy" was the second-largest concern among all likely voters, even though it didn't crack the top four among Democrats. Really? In denialism for the sake of a poll, like Passive Pelosi™ trying to pretend inflation doesn't exist (which also comes off as a bit New Agey, and contra Aaron Rodgers, "manifestation" doesn't exist), and Inflationmonger Joe of the frantic SPR releases?

Between various grocery stores last Saturday, I noticed that staples like brown rice are up again. "It's the economy stupid, and it's personal." It's not fair for state politicians to be judged on a national issue they can't control — setting aside the issue of how much or how little presidents can control the economy, and how much or how little they can control specific situations related to the economy. But, it is what it is; and, for both likely voters at the state level, and their candidates, to practice denialism? (That said, Strange hasn't said anything about the economy, but he doesn't need to.)

A 55 percent majority also favors stricter gun control laws, but Beto-Bob the Panderer, or Bob on a Knob, as I've called him before, has backed off that in places like Muleshoe. I mean, four years ago, Loopy Lupe Valdez was clueless. O'Rourke doesn't even have that excuse. Per my hammering O'Rourke as a bad strategerist? Abbott has an 11 point lead in the suburbs. I mentioned more of him needing to visit exurbs rather than suburbs per se, but the general idea applies.

Last note: 1 percent of Dems support Barrios; 0 percent of Rethugs support Libertarian candidate Mark Tippetts. That says something right there, doesn't it? 

Meanwhile, one lady I responded to, on Bud Kennedy's tweeting of the poll, brought out the state-level version of a "Vote for Stein is a vote for Trump." I reminded her (or informed her if she didn't know) that both duopoly parties have engaged in third-party vote suppression, as well as that a vote for somebody is a vote for somebody.

==

Update: There's a new poll claiming Beto-Bob has made the race a statistical dead head. I am skeptical.

September 07, 2022

Beto-Bob needs to fire himself as a campaign strategerist

No, seriously, Shrub Bush reference and all.

Why is Beto-Bob doubling down on his 2018 strategery (sic) of chasing diminishing numbers of overall overall voters in hardcore rural red-dom? Especially on the issue of gunz, actual political strategists know that suburban (and exurban, like say Sherman outside the Metromess 60 miles) "soccer moms" are where the political action is at.

It didn't work then, as, legend aside, Beto didn't do significantly better in any 2018 Texas statewide election than any other Dem candidate with the "memorable" exception of Loopy Lupe Valdez.

This:

O’Rourke lost to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz statewide by 3 percentage points, but the margin was 51 points in counties with fewer than 50,000 people — virtually the same deficit Hillary Clinton had against Donald Trump in those counties two years earlier.

Sums up the problem. It's a waste of money, and even more, in a state the size of Texas, now that we're past the Labor Day traditional start of the political home stretch, it's a waste of time.

Beto should be in the Shermans, the Weatherfords, the Conroes, the New Branfelses, the Sulphur Springses or even more, the Greenvilles, and maybe, say, the Fredericksburgs of the world. Per the photo in the story, stopping in an Abilene is fine. Per the text? Places like Quanah and Junction are not. Per a political analyst quoted in the piece? 

“O’Rourke’s commitment to campaigning in rural Texas is a reflection of the fact that Democrats can’t rely simply on urban and suburban voters and expect to win statewide elections in Texas,” said Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. “And they definitely can’t expect to do this while they continue to lose rural Texas by margins of 3-to-1.”

I simply disagree, per what I just said. Finding new voters in the cities I mentioned, along with doubling down on GOTV in strongholds, are a better strategery. In suburban and exurban areas, that also includes targeting the Californicators and other recent transplants. And, if they have kids, state school funding as well as gunz is low-hanging fruit.

Also, having met and interviewed Bill Brannon before, I'd not put heavy weight on his thoughts, either.

Plus, as the Chronic chronicled yesterday, at least some of the time, what's happening to Beto-Bob is he's getting his ass handed to him by raucous crowds in these places, even as he tries to very publicly backpedal from or soft-soap some of his more voluble statements from campaigns past, mainly the aborted (I see what I did there) 2020 presidential run. (This place? Muleshoe, where he shouldn't be.)

Meanwhile, at the Observer, Justin Miller interviews R.F. O'Rourke. Beto-Bob talks abortion even though post-Dobbs polling (limited so far) shows it's not a dial-mover. Miller also reminds me that, with Beto-Bob's spread-out campaign, contra Blank et al, you can't repeat a local focus once every three weeks. You can't visit Conroe in mid-August, then early September, then end of September, etc. As preachers and the like know, repetition is key to selling a message.

Oh, hit the polls at right.

==

Update, Oct. 22: Per my hammering O'Rourke as a bad strategerist? Abbott has an 11 point lead in the suburbs, per the latest UT poll of likely voters. I mentioned more of him needing to visit exurbs rather than suburbs per se, but the general idea applies.

July 09, 2022

Texas gov: Abbott whipping — or trimming — Beto among independents

Latest poll from CBS: Abbott's kicking Beto's ass by 55-30 among independents. Now Kuff says "pre-Dobbs," but ignores that, in the run-up to that, after the Supreme Court leak, Dems and Dem-leaners said inflation was by far their No. 1 worry.  I suspect that's likely still the case.
 
(See new polling, including the first post-Dobbs one, further down.)

Now, some parts of inflation, notably gas prices, have ameliorated recently, but there's no guarantee that's more than short-term. And, the shock of higher school lunch prices in the fall may bring that issue back before voters who are parents.

These poll results are EVEN THOUGH Abbott's approval rating is underwater right now.

If they hold up, he remains too far out for me to vote for him, despite me agreeing with him on guns. So, since I ain't voting for Green candidate Delilah Barrios, rather than hold my nose and vote Beto, this is likely an undervote as of right now.

That CBS poll up top put the overall gap at 49-41. A couple of days later, but still pre-Dobbs, a UT poll put the overall gap at 45-39. A lot of people still don't want to weigh in, there. It also puts the indy gap at 32-22 in detailed breakouts. Kuff uses that to scoff at the 55-30 above, which would be 55-40 in this case if percentages scale up. I'd just say it shows how soft the race is among indys. Related to the CBS poll? Although UT didn't have a breakout on the gov's race, by their stances on guns and abortion, "independents" in Texas tilt closer to Republicans than Democrats. Kuff can say that this is closer than Shrub's margin of victory over Miss Ann in 1994. BUT? Per Wiki, Bush had a solid if slim lead on Richards well before the election. Remember that in 1990, she got lucky enough to dray Clayton Williams of "lay back and enjoy it" comments. Even with that, she won with only a plurality not a majority. So the tea leaves that Kuff is trying to smoke after reading them don't support his librul thoughts and prayers interpretations.

To be fair, after I had written this in advance, I noticed an hour or two after it posted that Kuff linked to a new Trib piece (with his usual violation of fair-use quoting) there are other factors. At the same time, Bob on a Knob points to GOP-leaning pollster Quinnipiac, that shows him having a 15-point gap in December and now closing it to 5. My only guess at that? GOP support on Abbott's right is still soft post-primary. He'll probably be increasing border stunts and things like that. How much hay Beto can make? Don't know. At the same time, BK ignores that national polling this spring, right after the leak, said that Dobbs did NOT top Dems' and Dem-leaners' concerns. Besides hoping inflation goes back down, at the Texas level, if the continuing long, hot summer leads to power surges and flickers or even brownouts, he's got the ERCOT angle in play.
 
(Update: We now have our first post-Dobbs poll. And? The gap is 49-44, or one percentage point closer than UT. Also of note? Beto-Bob leads by only 9 points among Hispanics. Libertarian Mark Tibbetts gets 2 percent support, while Green Delilah Barrios isn't on the polling radar screen. Re the "Big Two," Abbott's support among Republicans is slightly softer than O'Rourke's among Dems. And, interestingly, Abbott's favorability rating is above water. Beto's is negative.
 
Update 2: From March-June, Beto-Bob has outraised Strangeabbott. He appears to have more small-dollar donors. That said, reading through RF's silence on one issue, Abbott appears to have more Texas donors.)

And, visit the poll at right!

March 15, 2022

Texas Progressives: More primary post-mortems

This corner of the Texas Progressives Alliance has no idea where the people of Ukraine honestly stood on things like NATO expansion before the Russian war, so won't claim it knows where to stand with them, and leaves that at that while introducing this week's roundup.

Texas Monthly has the post-mortem on Harris County primary vote-counting and Isabel Longoria. Why County Judge Lina Hidalgo hired such a hack, and what this may say for her longer-term political future, who knows? 

Democrats won't win more races until they recruit better candidates. (As the piece notes, many potential such candidates refuse to do the dirty work on statewide races.)

And, related to that? Dem primary turnout was down, GOP numbers were up, the Observer notes. Personally, I doubt it's primarily due to SB1; rather, it's anti-Trump animus driving Dems in 2018 vs. anti-Biden animus and the GOP today. Add in a more sharply contested GOP gubernatorial primary and there you go.

As for that bill? The Trib reports 18,000 mail ballots rejected in the 16 largest counties. But, we don't know the GOP/Dem split on this, nor statewide numbers, nor the GOP/Dem split on them. Off the Kuff rounds up news reports about mail ballot rejections from the 2022 primaries.

The Observer dives in to the GOP AG runoff between Kenny Boy Paxton and Pee Bush.

The Texas Signal takes a deeper look at that Abbott-supporting oligarch's lawsuit against Beto O'Rourke.

Department of Family and Protective Services, already short-staffed and already under a federal court order about its family services, is the agency Strangeabbott picked to meddle into family privacy on issues of transgender and transsexual children and medical and related issues. (They're two different classes of people, folks.) Rightfully, a judge put this on hold.

Collin College is facing its third First Amendment lawsuit from an ex-professor.

Internationally, Anatol Lieven has a good take on the real elites connected to Putin: Not the oligarchs, but those who rose to power with him in the post-Yeltsin world. Interestingly, his long-time Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, gets only a listing, and no discussion. Stand-in President Dmitri Medvedev doesn't even get a listing.


February 25, 2022

In the Army ... and in the union!

Cue up that old Village People song, even though it's about "In the Navy."

The Justice Department last month greenlighted the right of national guard troops to unionize while on state duty, saying that, during that time, they're state employees, not members of the military. Strangely, Strangeabbott has been silent about this, even though the Texas National Guard has been a leader in this push because of Strangeabbott keeping them called up on long terms for Operation Lone Star, then kicking them in the nads in various ways.

The first meeting of the Texas State Employees Union’s Military Caucus is set for this week.

Update: They have met, are officially organized as part of the Texas State Employees Union and met as the Texas State Employees Union's Military Caucus. Since the meeting, the Texas Military Department has moderately addressed two of the concerns Guardsmen had. 

And Military News profiles Hunter Schuler, the man behind the unionization drive. Also, per this piece, while TMD may have moderately addressed a couple of Guardsmen concerns, it has at the same time gone into anti-union demagoguery and more, all surely at the beck and call of Strangeabbott.

Question: Where's R.F. O'Rourke, aka Beto-Bob, on this? As of a day or two ago, I saw nothing on his Twitter feed after direct questioning about his stance. Per that update, it's clear that many Guardsmen think they're being used as political pawns. Open, outright and vocal support of their unionization would seem to be a no-brainer. That said, per the Military News link, at least in the past, Democrats haven't looked on military unionization much more favorably than Republicans.

February 04, 2022

I call bullshit on Blue Anon Texas freeze & snowpocalypse claims

(Sidebar: It's certainly possible that not all the "gotcha" was from Blue Anon Democrats, or from Democrats, period.)

First, without posting or embedding any Tweets, already Wednesday, I was seeing Tweets of totally empty shelves. Bullshit!

I live up on the Red, where, in the eastern half of Texas, this baby hit the hardest. My Tom Thumb had lines a-plenty at 2 p.m. Wednedsay, and shelves were thin in some places, but none of them were empty. NONE. I walked to my Walmart at 7 p.m. yesterday, and no empty shelves. NONE.

It's just as much bullshit as when the MAGAts were Tweeting #EmptyShelvesBiden a month ago, and after the initial run on toilet paper in the early days of COVID, or in response to the Trump Train a month ago, #BlueAnon was tweeting #EmptyShelvesTrump.

Political Twitter is more and more a puerile cesspool that would be even more damaging than Hucksterman's Meta-Fuckbook if it were the same size.

Second, I am embedding a Tweet to call bullshit on its author, Nick Wagner.

The bullshit, which is shown more in a thread of which that is just one post?

I quote-tweeted, and linked to the San Antonio Report story for which he shot the photos. Lindsay Carnett's story did NOT go down the "Gotcha Abbott" angle. It noted more clearly that the weatherization was NOT limited to temporary enclosures and was not even limited to the power plant per se. It also noted that some of the weatherization was summerization, not winterization. (She didn't note, which I did in the quote Tweet, that ERCOT is supposed to set summerization standards this spring.)

As for the temporary part? People who live up north note that this is just fine for a short-term need. And, it's San Antonio, not the Red. As I also said in my quote Tweet, overnight lows there were predicted to stay well above 20 last night, and are again tonight.

Third? Blue Anon of course invoked the name of Robert Francis O'Rourke, aka Beto, when talking about Strangeabbott, power supply and of course the Railroad Commission.

They ignored, or are ignorant of, even though the Trib wrote about it, as did Splinter Mag working off David Sirota, that, as a Congresscritter, a 2018 Senate candidate and a 2020 Prez candidate, that Beto took himself some oil and gas money, too, including from execs, not just rank and file.

And, folks, things like this are why I remain ... not a Democrat!

January 31, 2022

Abbott's "the lights stay on" promise to get its biggest test yet (updated)

#WinterStormAbbott as I have hashtagged it on Twitter, is headed to Tex-ass with the coldest weather since the killer Winter Storm Uri a year ago. 

Per Weather Underground, here's what things were predicted to be like in the Texoma area as of last night, when I was writing this:


First, and thank doorknobs, that's a reduction in the initial snow forecast; 24 hours earlier, nearly 8 inches was predicted.

Second, I am already anticipating the wingnuts showing how this means global warming and the larger climate change are both unreal.

It of course does no such thing.

If anything, since we're supposed to, overall, have warmer than average winter this year with the La Niña influence, the repeated irruptions of polar vortexes show just how true it is that climate change is real.

Third, per the header, is Abbott's promise. It's interesting he went on teevee to say that rather than talking to print media, or doing a presser for everybody. But Peter Lake of ERCOT then did a presser and it was Strangeabbott's idea.

Then, there's this surcharge on our electric bills, which R.F. O'Rourke has been hammering as the "Abbott tax."

So, how severe will the challenge be? With a chance of snow and two nights of overnight lows in the teens as far south as Waco? Two lows of a flat 20 with ice down in Austin? Abbott's probably got his fingers crossed. (South of Austin, and definitely on the Gulf coast, it looks like the weather will be inconveniencing, but not more than that.)

==

Update, 6 p.m. Monday: Strangeabbott is going to get lucky, it looks like. The storm's power is going to diminish, or coming in more from the west will weaken it or whatever. Temps in Austin stay above 20 with room to spare, and ice out of the forecast. Temps above 15 the full time in Waco, and "wintry mix" but not bad. Ditto for the Metromess.

Up here on the Red? Temperatures warmer ... no single digit problems. BUT? That ice predicted for Austin 24 hours ago? Now it's ours. The amount of precipitation continues to lessen, though.

Update, noon Tuesday: The Weather Service is still predicting single-digit lows Thursday. I'm not buying it. But, even it says winter storm "watch" not "warning" as of this time. That said, it's in more agreement with WU further south in Tex-ass.

==

Sidebar: Sadly, Twitter had plenty of seemingly Blue Anon-driven "gotcha."

November 15, 2021

Beto throws his hat in the ring against Strangeabbott

Announcement on YouTube:


I had not-jokinging asked rhetorically on Twitter which Robert Francis O'Rourke would run.

Would it be the the neoliberal ConservaDem of 2018 who refused to back Medicare for All? (Despite that, and hoping for a place at the party table, then-insurgent Sema Hernandez endorsed him anyway. Go here for my overall take on that. Go here for Hernandez's transmogrification from insurgent to Just.Another.Politician.)

Or would it be the (likely pandering) wild man of the 2020 presidential run, going far left of his previous position on gunz and other things? (He in reality remained a ConservaDem on most issues, like loving him some oil money. But, since he's running for state not federal office, he can dodge single-payer questions.)

Well, per the video, it appears he's taking a page from Railroad Commish candidate Luke Warford and starting with Winter Storm Uri. The "competence" angle is smart. It avoids the "old Beto" vs "new Beto" issues and gets at something that will come back to people's minds when post-bailout power bills start coming in.

That said, Beto did call, by calling it a matter of focus, for legalizing pot. That must be something poll-tested.

At the Trib, Svitek is right: He IS a weaker candidate than in 2018.

That said, Abbott is vulnerable, and if Allen West and Don Huffines push him, could feel the need to tack yet further right in the GOP primary, which would be an issue in the general.

And, a final political chess question.

Now that Beto is in, where is Matthew McConaughey? In or out, and if in, as a ConservaDem or an independent? And, in or out, when does he give us some word?

August 20, 2021

Coronavirus, week 71B: Delta and the future, and more Abbott

From last night, before we get to the initial main header? It may just be temporary, but even temporary buys time. The Texas Supremes told Abbott and Paxton that they would NOT overturn any lower court temporary restraining orders against Abbott's mask mandate ban. Instead, this will play out through the normal court process.

Meanwhile, Paris ISD found a novel way to be safe AND tell Abbott to fuck himself in the loophole. Masks are part of the dress code there.

On the big picture? Here's my bottom-line thought:
And now, to the regular programming that had originally started this.

Ed Yong talks in detail about just that issue, the Delta variant. He focuses in part on one issue I've long noted about Merika: "magical thinking."

He also puts "breakthrough" infections into context. He says that with Pfizer and Moderna, and other mRNA vaccines, they're very low. He doesn't mention Johnson and Johnson. (I don't know what other vaccines follow its adenovirus basis.)

But, on transmissibility by the vaccinated? We're still in the woods as a society:
Delta’s extreme transmissibility negates some of the community-level protection that vaccines offer. If no other precautions are taken, Delta can spread through a half-vaccinated country more quickly than the original virus could in a completely unvaccinated country.
And, that's the key: as a society, not individuals.

Yong tackles that next:
Here, then, is the current pandemic dilemma: Vaccines remain the best way for individuals to protect themselves, but societies cannot treat vaccines as their only defense.
He then discusses wingnut governors such as Strangeabbott and DeSatan before noting there are options:
There are better ways to do this. On a federal level, Congress could make funding contingent on local leaders being able to make their own choices, Lindsay Wiley of American University, an expert in public-health law, told me. On a state level, leaders could pass mask mandates like Nevada’s, which is “ideal,” Julia Raifman, a health-policy expert at Boston University, told me. It automatically turns on in counties that surpass the CDC’s definition of high transmission and shuts down in counties that fall below it. An off-ramp is always in sight, the public can see why decisions have been made, and “policy makers don’t have to constantly navigate the changing science,” Raifman said.
There you go.

Finally?

Delta has ensured that COVID will remain with us as an endemic disease, just as the Spanish flu eventually became modern influenza.

===

Delta has also raised the standard for herd immunity, and may, for practical purposes, have put it out of reach.
 
Politico shows how antiquated state public health systems, from old and inadequate computers through lack of personnel on to hospitals engaging in bad reporting practices, has had state reporting on COVID far, far behind the real-time curve and otherwise problematic.

The Atlantic tackles timetables and other issues for having a vaccine available for children under 12.

China appears to have invented a fake Swiss doctor, and more importantly, a fake Facebook account for him, to spread disinformation claiming that WHO's work about searching for the origins of the pandemic would become politicized. The Swiss embassy raised the issue of the nonexistent doctor, but naively, or more, kowtowingly? said that it assumed this was done in good faith. I thought a country that was armed to the teeth against invasion had more balls than that. Rainier Shea, Margaret Flowers and Howie Hawkins, Max Blumenthal and other Xi Jinping Thought stanners have yet to weigh in.


August 17, 2021

Greg Abbott has got the COVID — my hot takes (and a few others)

And, of course, on hearing this news, I couldn't resist hot takes on Twitter.

Like this:

Given that he's been attending maskless crowds, it IS schadenfreude well earned.

So?

There's this:

Two schadenfreude bitches with one stone.

And this:

Like shooting fish in a barrel.

And this:

C'mon, you would, too!

And this:

Nothing like throwing a dollop of conspiracy-theory pot-stirring in the mix.

And this:

And this:

I'll be here all week, folks!

Here's one or two that aren't mine:

Nice ...

And, kinder, gentler schadenfreude?

Sure!

And seeing the flip side? A COVID oldie but goodie:

Yep.

This one goes political.

Political schadenfreude!

On the serious side, living in Texas, I know that Danny Goeb takes over if Strangeabbott goes to his COVID non-afterlife reward. At the same time, AFAIK, Tex-ass has no state equivalent to the 25th Amendment.

Per Ballotpedia, the Texas Constitution does talk about, under Lite Guv powers, the "temporary incapacitation" of the guv, but unlike the 25th Amendment, in part since Tex-ass has Dick Cheney's plural executive, it doesn't say HOW that's determined if the guv doesn't admit it on his own. The full Article 4 of the Tex-ass Constitution only confirms that. There is no 25th Amendment type provision for Abbott going stir-crazy and then, say a la Nietzsche, kissing a horse and weeping over it or something.

So, what happens if Strangeabbott goes in a coma? Or kisses a horse because, per Nietzsche, it will make him stronger since it's not killing him?

No third special session, for starters.

Update: Rumor has it that Abbott skipped line and got a booster ... and it still didn't save him from his politically-driven foolishness.

July 14, 2021

Texas House Dems execute Runaway Scrape 2.0: First thoughts

I had wondered a month ago if House Democrats in the Texas Legislature would pull off a new version of 2003's "Living on Ardmore Time," the new update of that classic hit.

You get Don Williams' version, not Clapton's, because Williams was first and Clapton's a racist and an asshole.

I figured several things had changed since then.

1. Democratic president, so Strangeabbott, unlike Tricky Ricky, couldn't lie to FEMA about missing planes.

2. Narrower margin in the House side than then.

3. Generally more organized Dems. Yeah, there's still a few ConservaDems in the House, but nobody like Helen Giddings of back then whoring herself out for Tom Craddick plum committee assignments. Dade Phelan is newer to the House than Craddick was back then, and brand-new as Speaker.

Anyway, they've done it. For non-Texans or new arrivals unfamiliar with the original Runaway Scrape, click that link.

Per this update from the Trib, at least four Dems — three from ConservaDem districts, the fourth retiring, have stayed.

Four Democrats were present on the House floor Tuesday morning: Reps. Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City, Tracy King of Batesville, Eddie Morales Jr. of Eagle Pass and John Turner of Dallas.

It appears a few others, per the math, have also not fled. 

And, gone to DC, which as the Federal District, is not like a state in some ways. Had they gone to Ardmore again, in part, Okie Gov Kevin Stitt certainly would have helped Abbott round them up. Had they gone to New Mexico, like some of them in 2003, Michelle Lujan Grisham would have resisted more, but Abbott would have pushed harder.

Different in DC.

So, how long can this last?

Well, several things are in play. 

One is the suit against Abbott defunding pay of Legiscritter staff, which starts Sept. 1. If the veto is still in play, will Republicans be less likely, or more likely, to compromise if that hasn't been settled?

Possibly more.

Let's not forget that there's the special special session for redistricting that has to happen, and that won't happen until after Sept. 1 for sure. GOP Legiscritters are going to want staff there to help them crack and pack, though they probably could try to do it with outside consultants only.

Since 2010 redistricting ultimately went to court anyway, Dems have no incentive to return for THIS special special any more than for the regular special sessions, until some negotiations happen.

Will they?

How long before trust gets burned out and Democrats stop pretending that collegiality exists at some core level?

That determines whether negotiations happen before House Dems de-scrape or not.

What if the whole 30 days run out and nothing happens?

Do House Dems, expect for a purely symbolic few, not even bother showing up in the first place when Strangeabbott calls his second special session?

I think they have to do that.

Given that Abbott has now said he'll arrest them upon their return, and given that the quorumless House GOP took a vote to that effect, giving the whiny little titty-baby (look at his face, it looks like a perpetual pout) surely relishing the opportunity to posture, why would they return?

Abbott will send state troopers to their hotels and rented houses if the whole House Democratic Caucus shows up for the next special and there's been no movement between now and then.

Besides, there was no good faith at the start of this session, not even on the more collegial House side, Morales claims.

June 24, 2021

Texas Progressives look at Abbott's veto cancel culture

It was hot outside last week, and ERCOT shows it still doesn't work right. I address the root cause at the bottom of this week's Roundup.

Meanwhile, Abbott made sure it will be hot inside the Pink Dome for any special sessions with his big action.

Let's dig in.

Texas stuff

Strangeabbott did it — he issued a likely unconstitutional veto of legislative and legislative staff pay. But, it's no surprise that wingnuts within the GOP, having long lost touch with the US Constitution, would start doing the same with the state version, too.
 
Mike Hixenbaugh reviews a few of the other bills Greg Abbott vetoed. Hypnosis as investigative junk science remains in law. Requiring school students to learn about domestic and dating violence? Out.

From winter storm to heat wave, and still, all ERCOT can do is say "buckle up and use less power." That's even as SB 3's weatherization requirements have semi-toothless fines and other problems. At the Monthly, Loren Steffy has more on the latest clusterfuck and it being part of an ongoing mega-clusterfuck that Abbott et al don't want to expend the effort to fix. Also there, Andrea Zelinski asked four experts if enough had been done to fix the system. Shockingly, the two in the traditional energy bidness said yes. Non-sarcastically shockingly, a consumer advocate halfway agreed. As for whether this needs further addressing as part of a special session, the consumer guy said yes, the one traditional energy guy said no (with no comment from the other), and the fourth, representing renewables, also said no.

Speaking of, "Win Free Electricity for a Year!" The fine print? We can control your thermostat and remotely adjust it if ERCOT issues an alert. And, we will.

Danny Goeb, against wingnuts selling guns to terrorists until he was for it. (The same goes for Strangeabbott, of course.)

Mark Levin talks about how Goeb hates criminal justice reform.

The Observer talks about an apparent "trans panic" legal defense, one that not officially called that, or officially framed that way by defense attorneys.

Texas Monthly has its biannual best and worst of the Lege. Interestingly, Senate Dems are among the "worst." (They deserve it, TM notes, starting with voting unanimously for Goeb's budget.) Special awards include "Cockroach" Bryan Slaton.

Off the Kuff introduces you to median districts and shows how they have changed over the course of this decade.

The ACLU of Texas shows you 15 ways that the lives of Texans will be impacted as a result of the recent legislative session.

Lisa Gray installed rooftop solar panels so you could learn from her experience. (Blogowner’s note: Rooftop solar will never be a big deal in Tex-ass without a state income tax to offer tax deductions, unless the state OKs a consumer version of a Chapter 313. They also won’t be a big deal until Texas follows western states and adopts a feed-in tarrif.)  

Kimiya Factory tells why she celebrates Juneteenth. 

Luby's sold to Chicago-based catering company that promises, as much as possible, the 32 purchased locations will stay open with most staff. Deal does NOT include the restaurants' physical real estate. Per its website, that leaves not quite 25 restaurants still not sold, it would seem. With Fuddruckers sold off, I can't see these remaining restaurants getting sold.

Texas-national-global

SocraticGadfly says we need some climate radicalism, which we're not getting, in the battle against climate change.

National

At least within African-Americans, being perceived as beautiful may affect income more than sex, or the Black-White race gap.

Steve Vladeck observes that you can't evaluate the Supreme Court's term without also considering the “shadow docket.”

Are some Black people, even if not Republicans, against Critical Race Theory? Sure. Barrington D. Martin makes an "interesting" case, talking about Blacks being upstanding (even though he ran again against John Lewis in last year's primary as a pro-pot legalization guy), hard-working (though he's a pro-Basic Income guy and knows the stereotypes on that) and Christian (even though as someone pro-pot and pro-BI, he should know that's pandering, and also that Black Nones are growing almost as fast as White Nones.)

Global

The Mayor of Kabul talks about the pending departure of (nearly? remember those 1,000 Biden didn't originally count?) US troops from Afghanistan.