Tank, Warriors Tank!

I know it's the Golden State Warriors' first year in their new Ozone Arena, or whatever, I mean the Chase Center, in San Francisco. BUT ... since Steph Curry officially needs surgery for his broken hand and will be out three months? (And that's a minimum; he'll be "reassessed" at that time.)

It is totally the right decision.

Yeah, coach Steve Kerr may not like it, but he was a GM in a previous incarnation, and he knows it's right, too. Whether the fans in the West Bay accept it or not? Well, the Dubs rolled the dice on leaving Oakland.

Anyway, it's right.

Klay Thompson may be out the full year. Kevon Looney is out for how long with his neuropathy, and how effective when he gets back? D'Angelo Russell, in the short sample size of this year, isn't fitting in well. In the same short sample size, Draymond Green is bricking threes and actually playing fewer minutes per game than last year. (And, he injured a finger Friday night. Warriors are waiting to see how bad this one is.) We'll see if he has more in the tank as a leading producer and not a complementary player with Klay out, now Steph out, too, and KD and Iggy both gone, along with Shaun Livingston.

When you're expecting Willie Cauley-Stein to be some sort of boost with Looney out? You're not a playoff team. You've got the third-worst plus-minus in the league so far.

Tank now, let the rest of the West beat you up, and get near the top of the lottery draw.

The Warriors scoffed Thursday, after Curry's injury was known, but before the need for surgery was.

And contra a semi-conspiratorial Twitter correspondent who said he could heal much faster, Red Satan's Stefania Bell says no — assuming a plate or other hardware had to be implanted — three months is not unreasonable, especially when rehab, not just for the hand in general, but for basketball-specific activities, is included.

(Update on that, Nov. 11: Kerr said he expects Curry to play sometime this season, which could be seen as both an indication that the Dubs weren't overselling the severity of the injury AND that they're more open to tanking. Given that he won't even have the pins removed for another month, yeah, San Francisco dumb fuck, it's a real three-month injury. I mean, the Celts have ruled out Gordon Hayward for six weeks with just a single broken bone in his left hand.)

I took the Dubs at face value, and since my Yahoo fantasy league doesn't have an IR setting, since the NBA doesn't, I dropped him.

Plus, per Brian Windhorst, you can tank under the guise of "checking out the youngsters." You can also trade Russell to a non-tanking team who might have dire need of him.

Kevin Durant, Warrior whiner

Best of luck to KD in rehabbing his Achilles and on his future with the Brooklyn Nets, but in his recent Wall Street Journal interview, Kevin Durant comes off as a whiner about his time with the Golden State Warriors.

I've read elsewhere that he and coach Steve Kerr reportedly didn't get along. The story mentions that he and Draymond Green had issues.

But he says it's more than, and different from, that, as far as why he decided to check out. He mentions feeling an outsider when he first came there, and name checks Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala as, from coming up within the team, leading to that outsider feeling.

Dude.

First, you knew that going there. And now, going to the Nets, a team with no A-grade people who came up with the team as draft choices (Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are nice, but not all that), you'll get to avoid that, in addition, with friend (really?) Kyrie Irving as a fellow free agent taking the first vagabond hits, you'll be spared that further. (At least Kyrie manned up on his time with the Celtics, or did so for show.)

Second, you'll have people wonder if that's part of why you chose the Nets.

Third, on claims that you never choke, you'll have people wondering if you didn't like the pressure.

Fourth, with the dissing of the Warriors offense on top of this, you'll have people wondering how much you tried to fit in, in the first place.

Have fun with the Nets. You've already been called out as a whiner elsewhere. And, this makes you look more mercenary, not less. Either deal with it better or stop inflicting it on us.

If part of this is being an introvert, that's fine. Just own up to it.

#NBAFinals2018 — a bizarre Game 1 in Oakland

JR Smith, as nailed on Twitter

JR Smith doing his Chris Webber at the end of regulation was bizarre. Whether more or less bizarre than his Friday spinning claiming he knew the game was tied vs. Thursday seeming to say "I thought we were ahead" is debatable. That said, he arguably could have been saying "I thought we were ..." whatever else follewed. Update, June 2: JR admits people know how to read lips and that he fucked up. Nice that he didn't stick with the BS.

Klay Thompson's brain fart of his own on D right before that, eventually forcing the foul on George Hill and the 1-of-2 free throw shooting, was bizarre for sure.

Kevin Love playing not just OK, but actually good defense, at least for him, even on Steph Curry, was definitely bizarre.

Tristan Thompson being charged with not just a flagrant, but a flagrant 2, on Shaun Livingston at the end of OT was definitely bizarre. And, we'll have to see if the punch to Draymond Green's face on top of that is enough for a Game 2 suspension. It should be. (Update: The foul, rightly, has been reduced to a flagrant 1; he gets a fine for the Draymond incident, but no suspension.)

King James getting ready to strangulate JR Smith.

NOT bizarre  — the reversal of the call on the LBJ / KD play to call the King for a block. As I saw it, he didn't finish his slide left until Durant was already pushing off his jump plant foot. That's a block. I agree with Stan Van Gundy, though, that fouls should be an all-or-nothing on when you can review them.

Update: Refs stand by reversal of call. They would have had to huddle, anyway, whether with video or not, because they disagreed from the start. Read the whole piece, about the difficulty of reffing, the self-review they have to do and more.

Besides, in a regular season game, a similar reversal, off video, has already occurred.

And, sorry to Ken Silverstein, but since the Dubs aren't my most fave team, but, at the same time, they're your NBA version of the Patriots, I think my credibility here is as good as yours.

Beyond that, after the way James mugged Jordan Bell in game 2, and Bell then got called for the foul? He personally and Cavs fans in general got NO room to bitch. (Bell went off on LeBron afterward with definite NSFW language.)

(And, per alleged increases in player-ref issues this year? Hell, refs could throw 4-5 Ts a game, easy.)

Most bizarre of all?

That last 27 seconds of OT between the Cavs' missed last shot attempt and Thompson's foul.

Cavs are only down eight. But, they essentially surrender. Nobody's trying to steal the ball. Nobody's fouling any Warriors, whether after an attempted steal or no steal attempts. Sure, you don't want a 5-minute hackathon, but for one or two possessions, don't you have to foul, put a Warrior on the line, then try to hit a quick 3-ball at the other end? And, IMO, that's in part on Ty Lue. If he's seeing the players give up, and he's not pushing them, then it's ultimately his surrender.

Other thoughts?

Warriors looked chippy in the third. They looked like they were going to start one of their patented runs, then a mix of poor ballhandling, indecisiveness and poor movement killed that idea.

Draymond got lucky on his late game 3's, but Steve Kerr still needs to chew his butt for shooting that many.

Kevin Looney was OK, but Livingston was a stabilizer and all around good player tonight. Assuming Iggy is still out, I say, let's see a few more Livingston moments in Game 2.

The Cavs, beyond Hill's missed free throw and JR's brain fart, in general missed a chance to steal a game they needed to steal sometime, preferably before Iggy's return.

The reffing in general was chippy, or crappy. TT shouldn't have been charged with any flagrant, let alone an F2. Several clean strips were called fouls.

Maybe both teams were tired from tough Game 7 efforts in the conference finals, as far as a bit of the brain farts. Still, they had three-four days to rest.

Dr. J and Magic Johnson are wrong; so is Riles

Steph: Would he and
Warriors top all teams
from any era?

Both Magic Johnson and Julius Erving have claimed their early-to-middle 1980s teams would have beaten this year's Warriors with Steph Curry and the rest of the gang.

Magic Johnson: The
greatest ever? Not
likely in today's game.

Maybe, under rules of their era. Today? No. And, under today's game rules, sorry, Pat Riley, but Magic wouldn't rank in the top five. Not a great 3-ball (that shot-put shot would be swatted today), actually not THAT fast, and not that great of a defender. He might work as a point forward instead of a guard.

With the 1985 Lakers, Magic says, who would guard Kareem? I respond, who would be recharging his oxygen tanks, because he would be totally gassed. Michael Cooper would be solid in today's era — he'd play fast and shoot even more 3s while still doing defense. Byron Scott would still be good. Jamaal Wilkes, with lack of rebounding and no 3-ball to make him a stretch 4, along with little defense, would be on the bench today.

James Worthy would have been the interesting one. A decent ballhandler for his size, he was not a great playmaker, shot-blocker or 3-baller. He couldn't have done the stretch 4 either.

The Doctor claims that Moses Malone could run the floor. Not like that, he couldn't. Andrew Toney of "Boston Stranger" infamy might have shot the 3 today with more frequency. Mo Cheeks was not a 3-baller. Neither was Doc. Nor Bobby Jones. And Malone was never a good, nor a frequent, passer out of the post.

One team from way back that just might have beaten today's Warriors? And under today's rules? The 1971-72 Lakers. Huge points differential per game. Wilt was still in pretty good shape, and recognized he didn't need to shoot a lot, but when he did, hit 65 percent.

Jerry West: Would
The Logo & Wilt have
beaten Steph et al?

Picture that team in today's era for this reason. Both The Logo and Gail Goodrich would have bombed the 3-ball today. Keith Erickson and Flynn Robinson would have popped a few. Jim McMillan might have too. Hell, even Magic's coach, might have gone downtown on occasion.

Versus today's Warriors? West, underrated on D, could have gone mano-a-mano with Curry, IMO. Ditto Goodrich and Klay Thompson. Results wouldn't have been perfect, but it would be better than this year's Cavs, from what I see. And, both Steph and Klay would have to play D back on two bombers of their own.

So, this year's team might well have beaten last year's 73-win team. But, the Lakers of that era would have had nobody match up well with Kevin Durant. That said, if he were playing center, maybe Wilt could halfway hang with him. It would be tough.

Finally, for the leprechauns? The 86 Celtics. First, Kevin McHale would be riding the pine with Worthy and some of the Lakers. Robert Parish might have had limited minutes. Dennis Johnson, ditto, as he didn't have a 3-ball.

Danny Ainge? Might have played OK today. He had a 3-shot and was a better defender than is credited.

Larry Bird would still
rock in today's NBA.

Finally....

Larry Legend. Bird would indeed be balling today, with even more freedom. A point forward, a stretch 4 and more.

But, that Celtics team as constituted in 1986? Nobody was as old as Kareem, and it was overall better as a 3-point team, but still would have lost.

But Larry would be rocking.

Draymond Green: The next Dennis Rodman?

It's by no means a guarantee that Golden State's Swiss Army knife, Draymond Green, could turn into as unstable of nitroglycerine as Dennis Rodman of Madonna and North Korea fame, among other things.

But, it's possible. I think it's quite possible after reading this ESPN piece. (And already seeing him pick up a dumb taunting-type technical in last night's opener.)

And, one problem with the Warriors' chemistry is that they're lacking someone like one particular player head coach Steve Kerr played with. The Warriors have no Michael Jordan.

He may have gotten some pushback from Klay Thompson last year, and some more quite control from Steph Curry. But, neither of them is MJ in that regard, and Kevin Durant isn't either. Andre Iguodala has the presence, in once sense, but I think Green would ignore him.

On the flip side, the Warriors, with the depth they now have, can ultimately decide to walk away from Green after his current contract ends. Of course, they've got four years left. If they can win a title, smooth over appearances and hit a peak, it would be a gamble, but they could trade him and try to rebuild on the fly at the end of the current season.

Cavs vs Dubs ... who wins the rematch?

Kyrie Irving: Difference maker?

Cleveland's got a healthy Kyrie Irving this year. And a Kevin Love who's on the active roster (except the fourth quarter). Plus the midseason addition of Channing Frye.

So, this is not your grandma's Cavaliers, or just LeBron James'. Add in a new head coach in Tyronn Lue (while not overrating him) and this will be a different team in this year's NBA Finals.

Cleveland will certainly be deeper than last year, and have more rotation options than before.

Steph Curry: He's back, rested

On the other hand, Steph Curry appears to be fully healed (and the rest with his down time might have been a bonus), and Klay Thompson is playing his best playoffs ever.

Meanwhile, coach Steve Kerr, having made his midseason roster adjustments a year ago to win the title, has had the luxury this year of doing more playing around the edges with the record-setting Warriors.

My prediction?

Same as last year: Warriors in six.

Yes, this year's Cavs team, at least as far as playoffs Cavs teams, and definitely as far as Finals Cavs teams, is definitely better than last year's. But, this year's regular-season Warriors were almost as much better than last year's. They're more flexible, and can counter the changes/healthiness Cleveland has.

One of the trio of Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala and/or Draymond Green can guard Frye out at the three-point line, while still boxing him off boards and keeping him from posting up. Nobody in the Cavs' previous playoff opponents had people who could do this. Either one of the trio, or even Andrew Bogut in short spurts, can guard Love, depending on what lineups Kerr uses. If Cleveland goes big, playing Timofey Mozgov or Tristan Thompson with Frye, or those two together, two of the trio, or more likely, Bogut plus one of the trio, occasionally Festus Ezeli plus one of the trio, can handle it. And I hadn't even mentioned Swiss Army knife Shaun Livingston.

Meanwhile, Irving is still no better of a defensive player than a year ago, while Klay Thompson is one of the best defensive guards in the NBA, as shown by his work on the sometimes unstoppable Russell Westbrook.

In short, the Dubs have enough defensive weapons to make sure not more than one Cavalier at a time is "beating" them. Cleveland doesn't.

And, even with a healthy Irving and active Love, a "rest of the lineup" of Mozgov, Frye, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova as your next five after the Big Three plus Thompson just doesn't compare with Golden State depth, which allows Kerr to push tempo more.

Finally, per a parenthetical comment above, while making some allowance for a transition period, and for offensive and defensive experimentation, let's note that Lue's regular-season record was three games worse than David Blatt's, and that the team didn't exactly overwhelm the lesser-level Eastern Conference, at least until the first two playoff rounds.

As long as Green doesn't play dirty like he did against Steven Adams, and risk firing up the Cavs, this series is the Warriors' to win or lose.

My NBA playoff preview

First, it should be obvious who's the favorite to win it all. Second, I'm going against Vegas books for my No. 2, and also going with narrower odds overall, using percentages rather than odds.

That said, let's jump in.

Steph Curry

Golden State: 35 percent. As long as Splash Brothers Steph and Klay stay healthy, and Draymond Green stays emotionally involved, they're the definite favorite. Getting Festus Ezeli back from knee surgery will help on the few occasions they need extra bodies against a big man to supplement Green playing the 5, and normal center Andrew Bogut.

Why not higher? Well, the No. 2 team in the Western Conference had a near-record year of its own, and if anybody has the keys to beating the Dubs, it's Pops and his Spurs.

Klay Thompson

Plus, the Warriors struggled down the stretch, including a home loss to Boston. How much of that was unspoken pressure over the record chase, how much of it was running low on gas, and how much of it was, with the Celtics, a team matching up well with them and figuring them out, I'm not sure. But, it is a bit of concern. In other words, the Dubs deserve to be the favorite, but not necessarily an odds-on favorite. On the flip side, they're still a relatively young team, and they're deep.

That said, speaking of No. 2 in the West ...

UPDATE, April 25: Let's just put that Dubs coronation on hold and with Curry's bum knee, move the Spurs to the top of the heap.

San Antonio: 25 percent. Yes, I rank them higher than the Cavs, even though, barring massive upset, they'll have to face the Warriors one round earlier than Cleveland will, if we should get a repeat of last year's Finals.

Kawhi Leonard's taken another step forward, LaMarcus Aldridge has fit will with the team, and Manu Ginobili has bounced back from his surgery. Should they face the Dubs in the conference finals, Patty Mills will need to show more of what he did in the Spurs' one win, and Danny Green will be big, too. Down side is how much, or little, not just Tim Duncan but Tony Parker may have in the tank.

Cleveland: 14 percent. Why so low? Sure, the Eastern Conference playoffs won't be as tough as the West, but is Cleveland that much head-and-shoulders above the rest? I'm not so sure, especially given that the Cavs, after changing coaching horses midstream, were actually worse under Tyronn Lue at 27-14 than David Blatt at 30-11. King James, the GM of Oz behind the curtain, may not like that, but facts are facts. Given the struggles of both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving on D, which usually becomes more important in the playoffs, there's some chance this team doesn't even represent the Eastern Conference. The likes of a Kemba Walker could torch most that team, both mentally and physically.

Oklahoma City: 11 percent. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant continue to pace this team, and no guard in the NBA can stop Russ when he's on. But, the Dubs or the Spurs can put multiple players on him, or on Durant, to minimize one of the two options, knowing the Thunder fall off offensively after that. Trading out Scotty Brooks for Billy Donovan may help in the playoffs this year. Will it help in retaining Durant in the offseason?

Los Angeles Clippers: 5 percent. Unlike an old newspaper friend, I'm not convinced that DeAndre Jordan will be a great offensive threat to a small-ball Warriors offense which can, in any case, go big at the five as needed, and with depth. Chris Paul is a very good team leader, but a half a gear behind the top guards in the league. A relatively rested Blake Griffin may also help, if he doesn't mentally combust.

That leaves 10 percent for the rest of the league. Maybe 2.5 points each for Boston and Charlotte, whom I both like in the East, and 5 percent for the other seven playoff teams from both conferences combined.