Kasich has good reason to stay in GOP race

John Kasich

Of the 17 remaining GOP primary events, nine are proportional in some way, seven are winner-take-all and one, today's Wisconsin, is winner take most — the winner is guaranteed a certain percentage, but the overall divvy of the other delegates is at least somewhat proportional, according to that first line. Per Wiki, New York, Connecticut and Washington have 20 percent thresholds, but Kasich, I'll venture, has a good shot at the threshold in Washington State, at least a decent shot in Connecticut, and who knows in New York State? That said, Wiki says Wisconsin is WTA, not WTM. 270 to Win notes that it's WTA for 18 statewide, then a separate WTA for three delegates per Congressional district, and, that's plurality wins, no absolute majority needed, for both the Congressional districts and statewide.

Kasich could win a congressional district or two, and thus still rack up a few delegates. As long as he does that, he arguably keeps some degree of viability until April 19. And, who knows how much Trump could implode until then.

Cruz and Trump are in a virtual tie there.

And, after Wisconsin, there's nothing in the hopper until the April 19 New York et al. So, why drop out just because of one primary? Beyond the delegates Kasich has, Rubio still has his.

Meanwhile, the Democratic side is a big test for Bernie Sanders. Open primary in a state that's largely white outside metro Milwaukee. On the other hand, Ohio and Missouri, both somewhat similar and both open primaries, were both won by Clinton. But, not totally similar ... both those states have twice the African-American population percentages as Wisconsin. Of course, Michigan of his narrow win had an even slightly higher black population.

Polling remains split in the state.

From the 'Duh, it's politics' department

Shock me that McKinsey, a consulting firm known for being worldwide apostles of neoliberalism, would politicize a non-study "study" of Obamacare to make it look like it will cause employers to drop health insurance policies.

Per TPM's original post, McKinsey claims:

"45 to 50 percent of employers say they will definitely or probably pursue alternatives to [Employer Sponsored Insurance] in the years after 2014. Those alternatives include dropping coverage, offering it through a defined-contribution model, or in effect offering it only to certain employees. More than 30 percent of employers overall, and 28 percent of large ones, say they will definitely or probably drop coverage after 2014."

But, that hasn't happened in Massachusetts with Romneycare.

Now, since McKinsey won't release the study details, will some leaker inside the company tell us who paid for it to be done?

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The Wisconsin GOP is running fake candidates in the Democratic primaries for recalled GOP state senate candidates. Should Dems do the same? One group says yes.

I agree. But, Democrats generally anymore have no cojones, so, ain't likely.

Obama and the ghost of 1968

Will yet another undeclared war launched by President Barack Obama potentially make 2012 his 1968, as in the 1968 of LBJ?

Steve Chapman, in a good column, argues it's at least a possibility.

Liberal Democrats are already pushing to get us out of Afghanistan by the end of this year, even as Obama wants us there until 2014.

With U.S. troops, still around 100,000, in Afghanistan next January, while snow is on the ground in Iowa and active voters are caucusing in Des Moines and Waterloo, will Obama get a Eugene McCarthy? If so, whom?

Chapman says yes to that first question, too, and speculates Russ Feingold from his left. Or maybe Jim Webb from his right, and rear.

Webb, I kind of doubt. Feingold? Iowa IS next door to Wisconsin.

Other than Feingold, Denny the Dwarf Kucinich could mount another challenge, but, the "seriosness" factor would hurt him, unfortunately.

Howard Dean's not that liberal, and he's on Obama's side. No current or former Democratic governor jumps off the pages at me.

Scott Walker becomes even more lying and sneaking

Somebody acting on the Wisconsin governor's behalf officially published legislation stripping collective bargaining rights from state workers despite a court injunction.

How?

The measure was published to the Legislature's website with a footnote that acknowledges the restraining order by a Dane County judge. But the posting says state law "requires the Legislative Reference Bureau to publish every act within 10 working days after its date of enactment." ...

The restraining order was issued against Democratic Secretary of State Doug La Follette. But the bill was published by the reference bureau, which was not named in the restraining order.

In other words, Walker continues to show that he thinks he's above the law.

Wisconsin voters need to push to change state law to allow recalls of officials before they've served two terms in office.

The "false equivalence card" on Wisconsin

I thought Alex Leonard at Salon was better than this. But, no, both parties get blamed equally for raising partisan temperatures. If only Dems had enough gonads to make that true.

Wisconsin Dems cave

If this WSJ story is correct, "cave" is the only word to be used for the 14 Democrats of the Wisconsin state senate.

The 14 think that bill Gov. Scott Walker wants to pass, ending collective bargaining for state unionized employees, will "taint" him and the rest of the state GOP.

"Taint"? As if far-right GOPers are worried about that.

Once again, Democrats lack both clues and gonads at the same time.

On the clueless front, here's Dem. state Sen. Miller:

He said he thinks recent polls showing voter discontent with Mr. Walker over limits on bargaining rights have been "disastrous" for the governor and Republicans and give Democrats more leverage to seek changes in a broader two-year budget bill Mr. Walker proposed Tuesday.

Really? Let's hear from the other side of the aisle.

Republican Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald said Sunday night that the "budget repair" bill can't be amended at this point. But it's possible that over the next few weeks adjustments could be made to Mr. Walker's broader budget plan, he said.

I'm sure any such adjustments will be minor and cosmetic.

Beyond that, what if they're wrong? Looking at this in a zero-sum way, Walker wins because Dems caved. That's going to be the story line.

Why wouldn't it? In another story, the Wisconsin 14 admitted negotiations had failed, and apparently, they weren't ready to play hardball beyond that, depsite poll numbers trending their way.

Of course, Walker said polls didn't sway him. (Unless funded by the Koch brothers, of course!):

"If I governed by polls I'd still be in the state Assembly," Mr. Walker said on Friday. "I won reelection twice as county executive in an area of the state that went two-thirds for President Obama by identifying a problem, telling people how I was going to deal with it, and then moving forward with the solution."

Again, Walker was ready to play this as a zero-sum game, and so he won.

And, it's not just the collective bargaining bill. It's the zero-sum, winner-takes-all tactics in general. Don't the Wisconsin 14 read e-mails or whatever from their constituents, talking about stuff like this?

I understand you have a senator who is seven months pregnant. That said, to be honest, even if it sounds a bit cold, how that affected your calculations should have been discussed in advance of the walkout. If you had followed the details of the similar situation in Texas of several years ago, you knew that you could be out of state for quite some time.

And, speaking more of tactics ... what if union works just stay home from the polls more, figuring Wisconsin Democrats are fair-weather friends?

As for the claims of Miller that the Wisconsin 14 haven't announced a "date certain" for return, that's just window dressing. You've announced you're throwing in the towel and that's the bottom line.

Does Wisconsin have much of a Green party?

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Update: First, this TPM story touted as proof the WSJ story is wrong? The first two grafs are spin, nothing more. There's no "denial" there.

Second, state Sen. Chris Larsen's Facebook comment, and the Politico storyreferencing it? Two specific additional points.

1. While the WSJ news department, on political news, isn't as bad or close to it as its op-ed page, nonetheless, it isn't sterling. If Miller in particular, or the Wisconsin 14 in general, had nothing new to say, then why tell that to the WSJ?
2. If you really, really aren't coming back until Walker pulls the bill and resubmits it without the collective bargaining issue, why not draw a line in the sand? If one of the quasi-sympathetic Republicans in the state senate will be sympathetic enough to walk out with you, you can do that for sure.

Friday scatblogging - a big, wandering cat

But, this ain't no kitty-cat. Nope, it's a cougar spotted inside the Twin Cities that, per scat evidence, also traipsed six nearby Wisconsin counties last winter. Given typical puma wanderings, I'm sure sharp-eyed people will find more of its scat elsewhere.