Barf me: the "Ike Dike" is one (small) step closer

In what will surely please Kuff, most likely Brains and possibly David Bruce Collins as well (no shock, since the Texas Green Party to which the latter two profess allegiance showed itself on this year's constitutional amendment elections to be anti-environmentalist itself) design contracts have been awarded for the gates and dunes that are at the heart of the proposed dike.

Here's part of the environmental reality:

Still, environmental advocacy groups for years have expressed significant concerns about how a giant barrier built across an important ecosystem could harm birds, turtles, fish and other species by restricting the flow of water in and out of the bay and damaging or destroying habitat.

There you go.

Per my first graf at top, DBC was in fact a squish back in 2022. That's part of a piece that noted, at that time, the Texas GP's suck-ass website, related to this. Per this piece, around the same time, Brains supported it then. (At the Congressional level, Democraps showed themselves to also be fake environmentalists at this time.)

In addition, it will NOT offer the degree of protection proponents claim. I said THAT way back in 2017, and noted that even the Chronic, in a house editorial, admitted that.

What it IS, is a boondoggle by the Corps of Engineers and A&M's engineering school. I said that going back to 2018, while also calling out various lies.

That said, it's currently still just a small step because very little federal money has been appropriated. 

Texas roundup: TxDOT cheating, Alex Jones cheating, Three Percenters, Ike Dike

Wylie's Guy Reffert, described as a ringleader of stirring up Jan. 6 insurrectionist, now has his reward. It's seven years in the federal stir. Looks like sentences are getting tougher. Unfortunately, though legally understandable, the judge rejected a terrorism enhancement, and yes, why haven't prosecutors followed that angle before. 

===

The state is being sued for breaking the new Austin I-35 work into segments small enough to try to dodge environmental impact statements. It's by some of the same people who fought the I-45 expansion in Houston, and the story shows just how much TxDOT has used this dodge. This:

The case, filed in U.S. district court, raises larger questions about the federal government’s decision to give TxDOT the authority to approve its own environmental reviews.

is the key, and how it's laughable that the federal government outsources too much work to states. And whose fault is that?

Uh, Dear Leader's, not Shrub Bush and not Trump. Read the words:

In 2012, the Federal Highway Administration, or FHWA — which oversees the construction and maintenance of highways — created a program that would allow state transportation departments to assume federal responsibility to enforce NEPA.

Disgusting.

===

Dan Solomon comments on the lack of free speech implications in the Alex Jones trial. That's because Jones and his attorneys didn't care to pursue First Amendment angles. They DO care to abuse other parts of the legal process, with Jones' parent company filing for bankruptcy last week, and using a part of the bankruptcy code intended for small business.

UPDATE: In a colossal self-own, Jones has now been busted in lies about never using email and not being able to find Sandy Hook info on his smartphone when one of his attorneys accidentally shared some of Jones' cellphone records with attorneys for Sandy Hook people suing Jones for defamation. This of course opens Jones up to perjury charges. It also opens both him AND his attorneys, if they had any inkling that Jones was lying about this, to other legal sanctions or charges.

As for the $45 million punitive damages verdict?

Not only will it likely be legally reduced, but, per Jones' bankruptcy cheating, how much money anybody from Sandy Hook will ever get out of Jones is debatable. Months ago, I blogged that anybody suing Jones needed to ask the judge in the case for an asset freeze order right off the top of the bat, and he's now proven why.

===

The Senate OKed the antienvironmentalist Corps of Engineers to start planning for an Ike Dike that isn't funded yet, but once the Corps has its claws in it, probably will get the bucks, even though it's not only environmentalist but won't do half of what most people think it will do, and even that much is only if it works perfectly. Stuff it on this one, any Houstonians with whom I've argued directly or indirectly. I'm right, and I collected past receipts on this when I called out The Fraud (aka "The Squad") and other allegedly environmentalist House Dems for voting in favor of this a month ago. David Bruce Collins doesn't fully like the Ike Dike but doesn't think it's the end of the world, either. Texas Greens, by webmail and email, as well as Twitter, haven't answered me yet. Maybe they're less environmentalist than even the #GangGreen Sierra Club, which expressed concerns about an Ike Dike when the idea was first broached?

Update? Adding to the fun, the email address cochairs@txgreens.com doesn't work!

I would have searched on the website, but, guess what? The Texas Green Party's website ... doesn't have a search feature. This is 2022, not 2002. Seriously.

One Ike Dike Corps of Engineers grifting coming up?

Via Kuff, who's not an actual environmentalist type except to "own the wingnuts," AFAIK, word is that, contra my early, detailed, and ongoing, pleas for this not to happen, the House, in overwhelming bipartisan fashion, has approved funding for a so-called "Ike Dike." (That said, IIRC, Brains, who theoretically should know better, also has defended it, like he's defended the "bullet train to nowhere Roans Prairie."

Shock me. Too many librulz ignore the Army Corps of Engineers' woeful environmental record. (Were I your president, even though it's riddled with civilians, I'd take the Army part seriously and as Commander in Chief of the armed forces, order it to stop everything and not start anything new.)

I know the Water Resources Development Act includes much more than the Ike Dike, but people put it in there. And, sadly, not a single Democrat, including the Fraud Squad, and fake environmentalist Jared Huffman (on this, too) voted no.

Keep saying no to an Ike Dike

In his usual violation of at least spirit if not the letter of fair use regulations through his massive block-quoting, Kuff blogs about a new piece in the New Orleans Times-Picayune talking about the Ike Dike proposals for Houston. NOLA's lead-in is talking to the Army Corps of Engineers project manager who led the work on Crescent City's storm barrier system several years ago.

Kudos to the TP for saying the system would likely be woefully inadequate, just as the one in New Orleans is.

It has only 1 percent protection against 100-year storms, and that's using a definition of "100 year storm" that is itself getting outdated as we speak. This:

The Ike Dike is essentially a pre-disaster project done at a post-disaster scale.

Is the bottom line on that.

But, given that the Corps routinely underestimates costs for projects like this by massive amounts, a post-disaster project's costs? Maybe $100 billion?

At the same time, contra Jim Blackburn? The barrier islands alternative/complement isn't a solution, either. Those artificial barrier islands will be easily eroded. Who pays to maintain them? And, when the Thwaites Glacier disappears in Antarctica, they'll be underwater most of the time, too. Pre-disaster project.

I talked about all this and more five years ago, with an update four years ago, per links I dropped in Kuff's comments.

1. Environmental destruction would likely be worse than planned.
1A. The Corps is NOT an environment-friendly agency. A&M Galveston probably the same. This is an exercise in engineering wet dreaming for them, above all else.
1B. Given the Corps’ history, its construction cost estimates should be at least doubled if not more than that to be brought into the realm of reality.
2. An Ike Dike would do nothing to protect against surges on the inside side of Galveston Island, which is a lot of Helltown’s problems.
2A. An Ike Dike would certainly do nothing to protect against flooding from inland low pressure systems, definitely a lot of Helltown’s problems.
3. Options? Yes there are options. One of them is moving. If you really think you have to have it, a payment option for wingnuts and neolibs alike to back is a national carbon tax. (And, the pivot away from fossil fuels that would lead to would itself mean we'd have less need for petrochemical plant protection in Houston cuz they'd be doing less.)

Ike Dike hopes revived? I hope not

The Trib hopes that Biden's infrastructure bill funds an "Ike Dike." I hope they're most certainly wrong. 

Knowing that an Ike Dike is actually the most oversold bit of grift in Tex-ass this side of the Texas Central Railroad bullet train, and really wouldn't help that much, I hope it doesn't fund it. (Oh, Brains, I don't "hate everybody," but you're as wrong on the Ike Dike as on Texas Central.)

The Ike Dike has several problems.

One, per the "grift" angle is that it's almost certainly being underpriced, as is about any project involving the Army Corps of Engineers.

Second is that it's going to have environmental problems, as is about any project involving the Army Corps of Engineers. As the numbers of migratory birds continue to plummet, for example, we can't afford more environmental problems on the Texas Gulf Coast, in the Central Flyway.

Third is that it's not going to solve all of Houston's hurricane-related flooding problems and won't solve, or even address, ANY of its inland storm related flooding problems. 

On that point, the Chronic admitted two months ago in a house editorial that an Ike Dike won't even solve all hurricane-related storm surges. So, for water already inside Galveston Bay, it says the next time the Houston Ship Channel is dredged, that the soil from that should be used to create artificial islands in the channel. This, of course (it SHOULD be an "of course," but the Chronic ignores that) is only a temporary solution, as "regular" storms would erode those islands just as they'll erode the beach "thickening" on the island and Bolivar Peninsula that's been touted as part of the Ike Dike project beyond the dike itself, and that erosion has been noted, so the Chronic has no excuse for ignoring it.

Texas Progressives talk Bonnen, Ike Dike, more

Texas Progressives say RIP to Elijah Cummings, note that "thoughts and prayers" don't stop tornados in Dallas from happening (remember the "prayed it away" stupidity in 2015?) and didn't stop them from being started in the first place, all while wondering what the Houston Astros can do in this year's fall classic and whether they don't deserve to lose instead due to incredible boorishness about domestic abuse.

This corner also quotes Rick Perry and says "Adios, mofo," to state Speaker of the House Dennis Bonnen, who has now announced he's not running for re-election.


Texas politics — Bonnen

What's next for the state House, the Speakership and more, now that Bonnen is leaving? My updated take here.

Off the Kuff rounded up a variety of reactions to the infamous Bonnen-Mucus tape.

At D Magazine, Matt Goodman weighs in on Bonnen's now revealed hatred of city and county government. Goodman offers a good reveal of the Lege's growing practice of bracketing, which used to be limited to just private member's bills. (It was bad enough there.)

Robert Rivard compares Bonnen to Joe Straus and finds him wanting.

Stephen Young also looks at Bonnen's future.


Texas politics — other

At the Observer, Justin Miller asks how vulnerable John Cornyn might be. Sidebar: The infamous perpetual candidate Gene Kelly gave Cornyn his first break, winning a primary over a Dem lawyer who might actually have beaten Cornyn for chief justice of the state Supreme Court.

Brains has his P Slate on constitutional amendments. I agree.


Texana

Janis Joplin gets a new bio.

TransGriot celebrates the opening of an LGBT center at Prairie View.

Texas Signal notes that Dallas and San Antonio have joined Austin in renaming Columbus Day.


Dallas

Trump's tariffs aren't only against China, and not all of them not against China have been ended. In fact, new ones started Friday on Scotch, non-sparkling European wines, various European liqueurs, cookies and biscuits, some European pork products, and all your European cheese mainstays. Above my pay grade on restaurants, but tariffs on European food and wine are hurting the Dallas haute cuisine scene.


Fort Worth

Jim Schutze from the Dallas Observer jogs over to Cowtown news and reminds us that Atatiana Jefferson reportedly had a gun in her hand. This does nothing to address the stench of general Cowtown policing problems, but? I think Jimbo is on better ground here than his pre-trial bromancing the case of Amber Guyger. That said, per others' comments about Jefferson and the gun, including a family member saying she was NOT pointing it at anything but a window, I am not sure that Schutze is on THAT MUCH better ground.


Houston

Brains offers his P Slate in Houston elections.

Dos Centavos has his Stace Slate.

In the wake of new stories about the natural artificial sand dunes the Corps of Engineers has proposed as part of its "Ike Dike" being a cost-overruning tissue of lies, I've updated my story from a year ago calling it a cost-overruning tissue of lies back then. ("Word" to Kuff and partially to Brains; I don't know if David Bruce Collins ever drank that Kool-Aid or not.)


Texas-National

Socratic Gadfly talks about Beto, aka Bob on a Knob, O'Rourke, batting 0 for 2 on recent constitutional issues.

Texas Monthly profiles Trump's campaign manager, Brad Parscale, and details how this grifter insinuated himself into Trump's 2016 campaign, became a Trump Trainer as part of that, and what he's doing so far for 2020.

If Texas isn't in play, then why did Trump come here, the Trib asks. And even though Dennis Bonnen, according to Mucus' tape, worries about Trump's influence, Cornyn as well as Cruz sucked up to him.

Alex Jones lost his appeal on the Sandy Hook lawsuit. He'll surely take it to the state Supremes next. Note how we don't talk about him as much between the lawsuit and the social media boot?


National

SNL goes hilariously over the top with its open last week on the LGBTQ Dem Debate:

Close some national parks? Sounds radical, no? I actually agree with the idea, and the mindset behind it. If neither duopoly party is going to fund the Park Service more, shut some sites down. Read all the "related" pieces linked at bottom. Some are good or OK, others are stupid.

Brians looks at Dem Debate 4, especially the Medicare for All part.

The Lunch Tray connects universal free lunch to higher test scores.

Is the Corps about to foist an Ike Dike on us? (Updated 1 year later)

Both here and here, I provided various reasons why I did NOT want the hugely anti-environmentalist U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (along with state-level Texas A-M military and civilian engineering toadies) building a so-called Ike Dike for Houston.

In a nutshell:
1. An Ike Dike would do bupkis for Hurricane Harvey inland-generated flooding. Houston has had tropical storms and even tropical depressions, or just plain old weather systems, cause inland-generated flooding. An Ike Dike helps none of that; fixing the Corps-created reservoirs does more.
2. Claims of a Greater New Orleans Barrier in Greater NOLA as a starting point for an Ike Dike are simply bullshit. Oh, and who's already responsible for barriers, levees, etc., around New Orleans? No names, but its initials are C-O-R-P-S.
3. The cost of an Ike Dike would probably be at least triple of what the Corps claims. Other Texans should not be stuck with bailing out Houston, on a state share, nor should the rest of the nation be stuck with bailing out Texas, especially with a state led by climate change denialists.

But the Corps appears ready to foist upon us either an Ike Dike or an Ike Dike Lite. Riffing on my "numbers" worry, the boondogglers have already raised the cost to a $22-30 billion level, far above the $15 billion or less that was being discussed just a couple of years ago. The boondoggling will go higher if the Corps, as is likely given its past history, takes most of BOTH the A&M and Rice ideas into its master plan.

Update, Oct. 18/21, 2019: The Corps is proposing creating 14-foot "natural" sand dunes as part of a 44-mile-long mix of barriers and floodgates from High Island to San Luis Pass.

I don't hate to say I told you so, to Houstonians of all sorts of political stripes, because I did. The Chronic is now reporting these same cost and feasibility issues, just over the first part of the proposal on the sand dune barriers.

Going beyond that, here's my take from the 18th on the Corps announcement.

First, C-O-R-P-S, sand dunes you create aren't "natural." And, depending on how you create them, they may not have the same weathering resistance as actual natural dunes.

Second, you say you'll replenish them annually. That, in turn, probably assumes they weather as well as truly natural dunes. Given that such dunes don't exist there right now, that's probably not a warranted statement.

Third, you say you'll replenish them annually. Per point the second, if they deteriorate that fast (I'm also thinking of many other artificial barrier dune projects, so this point and the one above aren't pulled out of my hat), how much will this cost? If there's no dedicated budget line item in future years, how will people hold you to this?

And my take on the Chronic.

Nick Powell notes that the cost of dredging sand for both the original dunes and the replenishment will be a big cost factor. After all, even before the 1900 killer hurricane, there wasn't much sand on Galveston Island. There's not a lot more on the mainland coast. He also notes the Corps' current cost estimate does not include annual maintenance. I'll add that although the current gate for the Houston Ship Channel is not as environmentally catastrophic as the original, it's still not good.  Finally, A-M Galveston staff criticizing the Corps, per what I've said about A-M elsewhere, are doing so to row their own oar as much as they truly think the Corps is wrong. Don't trust everything they say, either, even if Powell gives them a pass.

And now, back to the original.

Also troubling is that many backers of the Ike Dike, such as John Cornyn on the floor of the U.S. Senate on Oct. 9, won't allow for, or even mention, climate change.

Anyway, the Corps will take both online and in-person comment, as well as holding meetings in Greater Houston. Tell it no.

Oct. 26: Here's details of the survey. Email contact to address the Corps is at top of page 1.

Oct. 31: The Sierra Club's Houston group also raises two/three other questions. They are: What will the long term maintenance costs be (or has anybody calculated this?), and who will pay them?

Update, Oct. 18, 2019:

Would an #IkeDike help Houston? Or be a big ripoff? Say #carbontax (updated)

Update, Oct. 31: In a "trick or treat," Gov. Abbott now wants $12 billion for an Ike Dike as part of a $61 billion federal bailout. Yeah, that word's about right, especially if Texas Congresscritters refuse to support a Manhattan Dike, since NYC is a lot more vulnerable to oceanic-related global warming effects than Houston is.

With a storm like the current Harvey, or the old Tropical Storm Allison, the answer is simply no, an "Ike Dike," first proposed after Hurricane Ike, would be of no help. Simply wouldn't. That's not only due to a Harvey primarily being a problem due to inland rain-induced flooding, not a storm surge, but that the surge that Harvey wound up generating on its final run was partially from within Galveston Bay, not being brought from the larger Gulf of Mexico INTO the bay. And, that will be true of other storms that run up the coast rather than coming in from offshore.

Yes, per one of the links that friend Brains posted on Twitter, A&M-Galveston is touting it. Of course they are — it's A&M, a fricking engineering school. And, with the Corps of Cadets centered on the main branch in College Station, it's the state's military school, too. That will tie in here in a minute.

Besides, contra AM-Galveston, there simply is no such newfangled post-Katrina item in New Orleans called the "Greater New Orleans Barrier." There is NO Wiki page for it and less than 200 Google hits. (Actually, less than 40 if you eliminate near-duplicates.) This is a fraudulent attempt to put a label on a nonexistent item, which is actually a group of post-Katrina cobbled-together upgrades, expansions and improvements to existing storm surge barriers.

It's also fraudulent to say that the Netherlands' work, designed to face North Sea gales with normal max 60 mph winds, and almost never above 75-80 mph, is the same as trying to block out a Category 5 hurricane. (The same is true for Venice's tidal gate system.)

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

It's also like the Army Corps of Engineers saying yet-higher levees is always the answer for Mississippi River floods, or some newer, higher dam, is always the answer for floods out west.

Per ProPublica, in Houston, city and Harris County officials need to focus on inland solutions — green spaces, permeable ground, and zoning — that are cheaper than dikes that will likely cost $10 billion, not $3 billion, that are hubristic, and that won't help inland flooding, either. And, it's no wonder that a leading private contractor (especially on military stuff) is also touting the so-called Ike Dike. This is the military-industrial complex gravy train at work. And, that same military-industrial complex was at work getting at least one Houston suburb to push for it. (On the "less than 200 Google hits," there's a number of Houston suburbs with city ordinances or similar city council agenda items like that.) Speaking of, the Corps' New Orleans-area work, per Wiki, has long been known to be laden with pork. And, the Corps' post-Katrina levees work, when Isaac came, moved flooding around more than anything else.

And, the Seabrook Floodgate, if that's what's meant, is nothing like a "Greater New Orleans Barrier."

And, again, an Ike Dike would be of ZERO effectiveness against inland, rain-induced flooding.

Something else that would be cheaper? Fixing, or even reversing if possible, ground subsidence.

And, leaders of Sun Belt megalopolises also need to read Ed Abbey (that's YOU, former mayor Annise Parker) and remember: "Growth for growth's sake is the theology of the cancer cell."

But, per my Houston vs Harvey blog post, Houstonians and Harris County voters keep electing "open for business" growth-only mayors, city councilmen, county judges and county commissioners. Your local answer needs to start with "vote the rascals out." And get the new people to fire city and county flood staff.

When President Obama took office, I said he should have used some of the Great Recession stimulus money to make new moves to Phoenix and Vegas go back to Cleveland, St. Louis or wherever as part of buying out underwater mortgages, before climate change made those cities essentially unlivable. To be honest, the same probably needs to happen in Houston, and New Orleans. Beyond all the problems mentioned above, both cities also face land subsidence from groundwater pumping that has turned them into giant bowls.

An Ike Dike as the semi-magic solution to these problems? It's what Evgeny Morozov calls "solutionism." It's what I've called here "salvific technologism." It's the stuff that makes Silicon Valley tech-neoliberals (as well as the military-industrial complex) salivate.

Folks in other places — Baton Rouge and parts of South Florida come to mind — are already at work on inland mitigation effects, including permeability, smart building, etc. Why won't greater Houston, and why shouldn't it?

==

As for cost? Kuff has numbers with higher estimates, depending on the project, than does Brains. And state Land Commish Pee Bush, per Vox, says $15M. They're still surely underestimates, once the military-industrial complex gets its hands on this. But, at least we are getting somewhat more serious.

Something else that would be cheaper and would help with flooding, though not a storm surge, is an underground conduit draining Addicks and Barker reservoirs straight to the Houston Ship Channel. It was first discussed 20 years ago. Even that would be less pricey than an Ike Dike, though it would still have the Corps involved.

And, neither Brains nor Kuff talk about the other costs, like environmental. How would this affect marine life? At the intersection of environment and business, how would this affect fishing and shrimping? Or simply business — how would this affect offshore oil exploration? (The channel would also have some environmental effect, though surely less than an Ike Dike.)

I mean, this IS the Corps of Engineers we're talking about, that is generally in neck-and-neck running with the Bureau of Recreation for among the most environmentally UNfriendly federal government agencies.

Even that reservoir conduit? It would be like the Mississippi River levees or moving around the New Orleans ones. A blast from it like Harvey's would probably tear up portions of the Houston Ship Channel unless IT was re-engineered. And, for how much?

An Ike Dike is a nice dream. No more than that. Per the above, probably not tremendously more realistic than an air-conditioned dome above all of Phoenix, or geoengineering the atmosphere with soot to try to reduce climate change.

And, if the real cost is $20 billion? Or even close? The only way I would consider paying for that is a national carbon tax, which the wingnuts who run Harris County, and the accommodators who run Houston, would never back.

And, per Ed Abbey and other things, were I the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., I'd refuse to fund an Ike Dike without a carbon tax. AND, I wouldn't sign off without Emmett, Turner et al agreeing to ALSO do mainland mitigation work.

In other words, if I were president, Houston and Harris County would have to pass zoning ordinances before getting money.

This is no different than my supporting single-payer national health care only if cost controls are attached. (And that is why I want the US to adopt at least elements of a British-style NHS.)

==

This is nothing against Perry, nor against other bloggers on the Texas Progressives list. Per what he said about another blogger, he's in many ways like a brother from another mother, or at least a cousin from another aunt. And, I have other friends, including two college classmates, who also live in Houston.

But, this is also about what's right for the country, what's right for the environment and what's realistic. I mean, we already have a country with unmet infrastructure repairs, improvements and upgrades so crappy in some places, along with income inequality, that an MIT economist recently labeled the US a "developing country."

And, on "realistic" and environmentalism, the Corps of Engineers usually runs neck and neck with the Bureau of Reclamation for lack of environmental concern among federal construction-type agencies.

And finally, no, it's not "too soon" to write this.

Politics and #Harvey and no, not too soon

This is going to be a roundup of stuff I've posted on Facebook and Twitter, or seen others post.

Houstonians, if Mayor Sylvester Turner won't stand up to developers and if Harris County Judge Ed Emmett lets a climate change denier, Russ Poppe, run the county's flood control board, and Stephen Costello, Mayor Sylvester Turner's flood control czar for Houston, also appears to be a climate change denier, when are YOU going to vote YOUR bastard out of office.

(Note to climate deniers — for every 1 degree Fahrenheit of air temperature rise, the air can hold 4 percent more water vapor. And, for Harvey, Gulf air temps were 2 degrees above normal. Was all of that climate change? Surely not. Was some of it? Surely yes.)

Don't forget Ted Cruz and John Cornyn both opposed federal aid for New York and New Jersey after Superstorm / Hurricane Sandy but immediately had their hands out on Harvey.

Also, if you live in Houston, better file property damage claims by Sept. 1, unless Gov. Greg Abbott finds a way to legally delay a bill — which he won't try to do — that this year's regular session of the Texas Legislature passed that reduces the penalty insurers pay when they chisel you.

Per that link, feel free to shit on Kelly Hancock's Twitter and Facebook accounts.

Why? Insurers give GOP money and the evil trial lawyers give Democrats money.

Local, regional and state politicians all pushing an "open for business" model (some Dems, like Turner, as co-signers) that says yes to everything the development industry wants.

Donald Trump, Tweeting about the Mexico border wall and still insisting on the idea that Mexico would be somehow made to pay for it, during the middle of the hurricane.

Texas Republicans — including old college friends who I know are politically conservative — may say this is unfair.

Sorry, but ... if you voted for these people, no its not. (That said, Turner is a ConservaDem.)

That said, if you live in Harris County and voted for these people, just look around. Start with Houston and Harris County both not having zoning ordinances.

If you support that, then .... to be honest ...

You got what you voted for. (And, you had an "open for business" Democrat Annise Parker running Houston before Turner and another nutbar Republican, Bob Eckels, before Emmett.)

At the local and regional level, especially, you've had 12 years since Rita and 9 since Ike to vote your bastards out. And, you've had Perry, then Abbott, in Austin.

For more on the issues faced by Houston, and how both recent and older politics have contributed, read this collection of articles by the Chronicle.

And, if you voted for Trump?

Well new FEMA head Brock Long (maybe he's also a climate change denier) is also among the politically connected useless idiots:

“You could not draw this forecast up. You could not dream this forecast up.”

Bullshit. Not only do we have ProPublica/Texas Tribune document Houston and Harris County exacerbating flooding, we have, from a year ago, the New York Times Sunday Review with a fictional-for-now essay modeling a Hurricane Isaiah far stronger than this. 

In other words, per an old phrase, if you've been voting for these people, you have "reaped the whirlwind.)

Of course, along with the refusal to have permeable green spaces, as the toxicity of floodwaters likely increases, is a city that has struggled for years with sewer issues.

Meanwhile, Trumpster himself says the National Flood Insurance Program won't go broke over Harvey and won't get caught in debt ceiling politics. And with that, I already see what's coming — he's going to demand the debt ceiling get connected to NFIP funding. Resist. Better yet, Dems need to offer a bill JUST for funding it. Now. Pre-emptively.

Two final notes.

First, "Nature bats last."

Second, per Ed Abbey, "Growth for growth's sake is the theology of the cancer cell."

Per that, if you really think that Rita is the only example on evacuation, not Ike, and that there's no way to truly evacuate Houston, then guess what? You got too damned many people living there.

Houston vs #Harvey (blasting Beaumont)

Harvey's projected longer-term path is firming up.
Weather Underground storm tracking map is linked to its updates, is live, not static.

A nightmare scenario first broached by the National Weather Service late Friday seems to be taking firmer shape, per midday Saturday forecasts and projections.

And, per the various sets of updates, the nightmare on rain has already happened and hasn't finished. It now looks like Harvey will ride the Gulf coastline until early Wednesday, eventually making its second landfall somewhere near Port Arthur, and pumping yet more rain into southeast Texas until then, perhaps another 15 inches northeast of Houston, and half that much, at least, closer into the city.

Parts of Harris County were STILL getting half an inch an hour of rain Tuesday morning. An inch an hour was falling to the east and north.

Update 3 p.m. Tuesday
6 p.m. Tuesday  — offshore 60 miles SSE of Galveston
6 a.m. Wednesday — landfall due south of Lake Charles
6 p.m. Wednesday — SSW of Alexandria, Louisiana
6 a.m. Thursday —  Due south of Monroe, Louisiana
6 a.m. Friday —  Oxford, Mississippi

Update 7 a.m. Tuesday — trajectory shifted yet eastward
Noon Wednesday — landfall SW of Lake Charles, Louisiana
Midnight, Wednesday/Thursday — Alexandria, Louisiana
Midnight, Thursday/Friday — above Greenville, Mississippi

Update 10 p.m. Monday — trajectory shifting eastward
6 a.m. Tuesday — Offshore due south of Houston

6 p.m. Tuesday — Closer offshore, due south of Galveston
6 a.m Wednesday — Just offshore of Port Arthur

6 p.m. Wednesday — North of Lake Charles, Louisiana
6 p.m. Thursday — SE Arkansas

Update, 10 a.m. Monday —  There has been a bit of a shift eastward, with the general paths remaining the same. Whether this will make thing better or worse for Houston? It could move rain bands away from Houston, but it could shove some sort of storm surge right up the Houston Ship Channel. In short, Houston is now in a situation similar to that with Ike nine years ago.
6 a.m. Tuesday — Offshore due south of Houston
6 p.m. Tuesday — Closer offshore, due south of Galveston
6 a.m. Wednesday — Near landfall on Bolivar Peninsula
6 a.m. Thursday — On the Toledo Bend Reservoir
6 a.m. Friday — Southern Arkansas

The latest models continue to show an accelerating clear-out after Harvey's second landfall.

And, speaking of "similar to Ike," no, it's not too soon to raise planning issues and the politics related to them.

Update, 10 p.m. Sunday (confirmed on 1 a.m. Monday update) — A bit of saving grace, perhaps. Harvey is expected to gain movement speed after making landfall again. That may mean a little less rain for Houston later in the week, but more before then, and longer over water.
Latest predictions:
Monday, noon — Matagorda or east
Monday/Tuesday midnight — Matagorda Bay
Tuesday, noon — Lake Jackson offshore
Tuesday/Wednesday, midnight — Freeport offshore, making landfall again
Wednesday/Thursday, midnight — East of Huntsville near Livingston
Thursday/Friday, midnight — near Ruston, Louisiana, southeast of Shreveport
Friday/Saturday, midnight — south-central Arkansas

Update, 4 p.m. Sunday — Latest NWS forecast is continuing to firm up and tighten.

By cities of larger size, here are approximates for storm center location through Friday:
Monday, 6 p.m. — Port O'Connor
Tuesday 6 p.m. — Offshore just off Lake Jackson
Wednesday 6 p.m. — Houston dead center
Thursday, 6 p.m. — Nacogdoches
Friday, 6 p.m. — Texarkana

Parts of Houston could get ANOTHER 15-25 inches of rain on top of what has already fallen. Petrochemical Alley could take a big hit.

(Contra a post from Space City Weather, I personally have not seen anybody claiming this will re-intensify to hurricane strength.)

Update, 11 a.m. Sunday: Per the NWS' 10 a.m. Sunday update, it's saying that its predictions from late last night are firming up, BUT, with part of the initial prediction coming back into play.

First, will come the semi-backup, or loop, out to Matagorda Bay. Then, moving inland NNE to NE. In fact, the backup has already started. Current movement is SSE.

Gasoline may become a factor as well. eXXXon is shutting its Baytown refinery. Houston Hobby airport closed. HISD closed all week. Some people are evacuating already.

Update, midnight Saturday/Sunday: now the NWS is saying it will head north-northeast by Wednesday, not due north. Houston not yet totally out of the woods, relatively speaking. NWS latitude and longitude put the eye, tentatively, over Franklin late Thursday night. And, I know where that is (due north of College Station) because I've been there before.

Update, 8 p.m. Saturday: The most recent forecasts, per the updated map, call for it to NOT back out, but slowly head northward.

Otherwise, this appears to be back to worst-case scenario for Houston. Houston ISD is already closing all week.

As of early Sunday afternoon, predictions look like they're starting to firm up for a longer-term path. Harvey should come JUST BARELY west of Houston on a NNE-to-NE path, then track about dead center over Huntsville, then head to Tyler.

Predictions still call for at least 20 inches of rain in the core area and now, as much as 40 inches in spots.

Gov. Greg Abbott was wrong last Friday about thinking Houstonians should evacuate already then. But, looking ahead to Wednesday night at the earliest, Friday morning at the latest, I think he's now shaping up to be right.

Indeed. Some of Houston's major freeways and parkways were reporting high-water closures already on Saturday. Pearland had 10 inches in 90 minutes late Saturday night. And we're a long ways away from next Wednesday.

Especially if you look at this ProPublica/Texas Tribune piece from a year ago, capped by this shorter follow-up specific to Harvey, about how Houston has become engineered by willful stubbornness to be a laboratory for human-induced floods, with elected officials from both Houston and Harris County spineless, and climate deniers running the county's flood control program, 20-plus inches of rain, continuing longer than those from named and unnamed storms of the past few years?

(Stephen Costello, Mayor Sylvester Turner's flood control czar for Houston, also appears to be a climate change denier.)

Not a chance.

Plus, per Weather Underground, if part of Harvey is hanging out over the Gulf for that full trip up to Houston, you'll have a continuous storm surge preventing rivers, creeks and bayous from fully and quickly draining. It's going to be a giant water backup.

Add in that parts of Houston are at, maybe slightly below, sea level to land subsidence from groundwater pumping?

I laugh sardonically now more than ever at former Houston Mayor Annise Parker's claim, while still in office, that Houston would pass Chicago in size in the not-too-distant future.

Wrong!

Chicago doesn't flood and it does have zoning. Something like Harvey, mixed with sluggishness in the energy petrochemicals, oil and gas, sector (ignoring possible damages from Harvey to boot) lack of green energy development in Houston, and Greg Abbott's Texas miracle turning as much to sand as Rick Perry's did, and Houston could get kind of unattractive.

Houston mayors haven't been kleptocratic thugs, unlike Rahm Emanuel. That's about the only thing going for them. And Harris County is simply a hotbed of hackery.

And, I haven't yet even discussed (h/t Brains and Eggs) the fictitious "Hurricane Isaiah" modeled in a New York Times Sunday Review piece a year ago.

Harvey will certainly not be THAT bad. But, it almost surely is going to be far worse than Ike. Ike was nearly a decade ago. Houston, Harris County, and the state of Texas have all had plenty of time to prepare.

And have failed.

No, we're scratching that.

And have refused.

At all levels of government, it's been "open for business" business as usual. Plus climate change denialism, tinged with touches of Agenda 21 conspiracies and more.

Speaking of, the "Isaiah" story gets some things wrong. It doesn't even mention the "carbon tax + carbon tariff" idea that would, contra its claims near the end, force the whole world on one page on climate change. And, rather than mention Houston and Harris County adding permeability and reducing concrete, it touts two different options on Venice Lagoon type dikes or gates.

Wrong.

They might stop an Isaiah, but as the main Pro Publica story shows, they wouldn't do a damn thing to fix rain-induced flooding.

For more on the issues faced by Houston, and how both recent and older politics have contributed, read this collection of articles by the Chronicle.

==

Related on disorganization/update: Brains says "no," the gov is wrong on the evacuation issue, and links to his personal experience evacuating from Rita. That said, Brains notes that Houston was unprepared for evacuation then. Theoretically, on things like lane counterflow, city, state and county are better set this time. After all, there were evacuations from Ike, which, per Wiki, went reasonably well other than those who refused to evacuate because of the Rita clusterfuck.

And, if you REALLY can't get that many people evacuated? Per Ed Abbey's "growth for growth's sake is the theology of the cancer cell," you got too damned many people there.

And, new FEMA head Brock Long (maybe he's also a climate change denier) is also among the politically connected useless idiots:

“You could not draw this forecast up. You could not dream this forecast up.”

Bullshit. Not only do we have ProPublica/Texas Tribune document Houston and Harris County exacerbating flooding, we have, from a year ago, the New York Times Sunday Review with a fictional-for-now essay modeling a Hurricane Isaiah far stronger than this. 

Dear #BigOil in #Houston — you have a self-inflicted problem

Actually, you have about 4 feet of self-inflicted problem. That's how much sea level rise is already, apparently, irreversible due to global warming's effect on the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Now, Big Oil is everywhere. It's in San Antonio with the Eagle Ford shale play. As the previous presidential administration of Mutt and Jeff showed, it was in abundance in Dallas.

So why pick on Houston?

Well, I could have picked on Port Arthur, or Beaumont, for similar reasons.

Here's why. Many places along the Gulf Coast are contending with subsidence from oil/gas extraction and groundwater pumping as well as beach erosion.

And, some of those could be at or a touch below sea level already. Indeed, some parts of older Houston, with a longer history of both water and oil extraction, may be at current sea level, or a touch below.

Houston area after a 5-foot sea level rise/NYT graphic

In other words, parts of Houston are in a bowl. Perhaps not as bad as New Orleans' lower Ninth Ward, but bad enough. At left is the scenario in Houston with a sea level rise of just about what the West Antarctic meltdown guarantees.

Other than the Ship Channel, but, schadenfreude, home of the refineries, Houston itself isn't in trouble. Galveston is, though.

And, while the West Antarctic meltdown may take as long as 200 years, ice elsewhere at both poles will also continue to melt.

And, this is just with calm seas, whether a prosperous voyage is also included or not, courtesy of Beethoven's muse or anything else.

Let's add in another thought, also from NOLA.

Katrina. Remember, Houstonians, the somewhat similar degree of pants-shitting happening down there over the precise course of Hurricane Ike?

OK, bring on another Ike, with that shoreline above, and give it a worst-course scenario. I'll not paint a totally black picture; Ike 2.0 will be kept at no larger than Category 3 on hurricane strength.

Anyway, Galveston gets obliterated.

The refineries in the Ship Channel get flooded out of operation for two weeks. The lowest parts of the city of Houston become a bowl of mosquito-infested water for the same length of time.

Houston area after a 12-foot sea level rise/NYT graphic

And, that's just with a rise of a little bit above four feet. The New York Times says the loss of these ice sheets could destabilize others enough to make the ultimate rise hit 10 feet or so.

Add in rising sea level from warmer ocean temperatures and other things, and you get something like the 12-foot rise pictured at left. Goodbye, Galveston Island. The entire Ship Channel is also underwater.

And, without Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula as giant breakwaters, Houston itself stares straight into the teeth of hurricanes hitting the upper Texas Gulf Coast.

How's them apples?

Big Oil doesn't care, or it continues the denialism. That's even as it finds it easier to spend big bucks spreading the denialism rather than doing something. And, note to John Roberts, the alleged "umpire" chief justice who needs to buy MLB's instant replay machinery to check his calls — it's this type of "dark money" spending which is the ultimate philosophy driving campaign finance today. If you can't see corruption, it's because you don't want to see corruption.

Anyway, Big Oil and friends has already helped guarantee this 4-foot rise is baked in. Unavoidable. Contra nutbars in the Senate like Ted Cruz, Jim Imhofe, and Tom Coburn, there's no god magically smiling on the USofA to stop this, either.

That said, Ted Cruz's grandson and Pat Robertson's great-grandson will someday blame this on teh gayz or something. Or else they'll claim it's a sign of the Apocalypse. But, sorry, there will be no god magically rapturing you out of your flooded home, either.

As for Big Oil? What do you expect from an industry in cahoots with the railroad industry that has workers cleaning out tanker cars in abominably unsafe conditions?

What happened during Katrina at NOLA hospital? Euthanasia?

The New York Times Magazine has an in-depth look at whether or not several critically ill patients were euthanized at Memorial Medical Center.

I think they were, but in situations that none of us can fully imagine. The best solution, in my opinion, would have been for the Orleans Parish grand jury to true-bill, rather than no-bill, several of the key decision-makers, then offer deferred adjudication in exchange for surrender of medical licenses. Perhaps not permanent surrender, but, maybe for a couple of years.

That said, the detailed story notes that more than four years later, and more than a year after Hurricane Ike hitting Galveston Island, the medical profession still lacks more specific directives for how to handle such a disaster.
-END-

We got Ike but no ice

Ahh, more FEMA brilliance at work. FEMA now says it’s not delivering ice among relief supplies.

Even worse, the policy has been on FEMA’s books since last year, but it hasn’t seen fit to tell state and local officials.

A FEMA spokesperson said it’s part of a more business-modeled policy. Oh, and this from the administration that blew a multi-trillion surplus and put a war off budget? Wunderbar.

And, that’s not the only Ike problem. A San Antonio-area truck driver is claiming drivers in the Ike recovery area are sitting idle, unable to deliver supplies. This particular trucker’s been trying to deliver for five days.

Three guesses as to what he’s got in his truck, and the first two don’t count!

You’re doing a heckova job, post-Brownie FEMA!

Ike update — stay home; eight dead in U.S.

Police in Houston sububs such as Seabrook are still barricaded away from going back home. Which is probably a good thing, given the amount of standing water still there, and the lack of electricity.

Here’s the rest of latest news of the Ike aftermath :
• Eight confirmed dead so far — five in Texas and three of those in Galveston. Given that 40 percent of Galveston residents willfully disregarded (“ignored” is way too polite, both legally and morally) a mandatory evacuation order, expect that number to go up.

• Houston has imposed a 9 p.m.-6 a.m. curfew for the entire Monday-Friday workweek. I’m sure many suburbs that are “open” are looking at similar.

• Galveston’s causeway to the mainland has been damaged, which could further hamper rescue efforts, and will certainly hamper the return of residents when that is allowed.

Hurricane Ike makes landfall – oil refineries and more at risk

As of noon, a bit of downward revision; 7.5 overall and 6.5-7 for Houston, it appears

Updated 12:30 p.m. Saturday

The eye officially coeme on shore at about 2:10 a.m., according to the National Hurricane Center. The National Hurricane Center says it officially fell 1 mph short of Categore 3 status, which is small potatoes. With high tide at about the same time as the eye made landfall, this could have been a likely disaster of great magnitude, but it appears we have dodged the worse.

The map above comes via Wired and illustrates major oil/petrochemical facilities at risk. The worst of the storm surge is predicted to hit right in the area of the Houston Ship Channel.

Gas prices?

Best scenario is 7-10 days on restarting the shut-down refineries.

Worst-case scenario? A month or more.

Given that the ship channel had at least a 10 percent chance of a storm surge of 23 feet or more, we could have ahd serious effects not only on gas prices, but as the Port of Houston is one of the nation's three busiest ports, on a variety of goods imported from China and elsewhere.

But, the storm surge was not measured above 15 feet anywhere, and not even that high in Houston itself. Probably no major damage to piers in the port. Heaviest storm surge appears to be in the Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange area.

Refineries now shut down in Houston and the surrounding area produce about one-fifth of U.S. oil products. The effects will be felt throughout the central states.

My guess on refineries is 10 days max in Houston itself, but possibly two weeks or more in Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange.

The worst of the storm surge appears to be from Baytown east, as far east as Port Arthur; indeed, the Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange area may suffer almost as much damage as Houston. The eye passed just about dead center through Galveston Bay after crossing the island; I'll put the storm surge in the ship channel area at an "8" on a 1-10 scale, based on what radar I see.

Shipping? A lot of known effects. Wal-Mart and Home Depot both have major distribution centers in metro Houston, at Baytown.

One pier at Galveston is already confirmed as damaged, as a storm surge of about 20 feet hit the island.

Obviously, hurricane winds and the storm surge have the port shut down as we speak. Whether shipping facilities will be severely damaged remains to be seen.

Skyscrapers have reported some damange in downtown Houston, as Ike had strong winds aloft as well as at the surface.

Electricity? As of early Saturday, almost 2 million customers were already without electric power. I would guess that Galveston Island will remain without power at least 72 hours, and that's very conservative.

Note: That is customers and not people... almost 5 million people are without power.

Conservative, indeed, on the island! Galveston City Manager Steve LeBlanc says it could be weeks before all power is restored on the island.

On the mainland, I would say Wednesday before Harris County is lit back up.

Overall, in dollar costs, Ike could be the U.S.'s third-most-destructive hurricane ever, after 1992's Andrew and Katrina in 2005.

I am not sure if this will hold; I will at least keep it in the top 10.

The human cost? One storm surge drowning in Corpus Christi, so far.

The continued pounding?

Information below from the National Hurricane Center:

It is likely to remain at hurricane strength by noon Central time. And, more likely to still be a tropical storm than a tropical depression by midnight Saturday/Sunday.

Tropical storm warnings cover the entire eastern half of Texas, including up here in Dallas. Tornado watches over half of Louisiana and all of lower east Texas. Almost all of coastal Louisiana is suffering a storm surge, including areas not yet recovered from Hurricane Gustav.

Up here in Dallas, it looks like it is going to start bending to the northeastward enough to spare us serious fallout; we started getting light rain about noon and winds are still below 25 mph on top gusts.



Update: More storm damage reports from the AP, AFP and elsewhere as of 3 a.m.:
• Landmark Houston restaurant Brennan’s burns;
• Already six feet of water in the Galveston County Courthouse;
• Multiple unextinguished, and currently unextinguishable, fires in Galveston;
• Nearly 40 percent of Galveston residents refused to evacuate, many invoking monotheistic religious fatalism;
• Electricity failed in Galveston as of 1 a.m.; that also means no potable water without power to run water supply equipment, as well as commingling of storm surge water;
• Port Arthur and other towns on the upper end of the Texas Gulf Coast could join Galveston underwater;
• At 3 a.m., the count on those without electricity was now 1.3 million;

From the AFP story, comes a preliminary estimate on possible damage costs:

Jack Colley, from the Texas Department of Emergency Management, said officials estimated the storm's economic impact would be "somewhere in between the 80-billion dollar and 100-billion-dollar range."

On the front lines, the Houston Chronicle (photo above of mingled fire and flood in Galveston) says we could run short of gas up here in Dallas, as Chris Newton, president of the Texas Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association, said tanker trucks can't safely travel in winds over 40 mph. (Ike is expected to still be at tropical storm strength when it gets up to us, and its outermost tentacles are just starting to do that.)

Dallas/East Texas update: Scattered power outages in East Texas; none here in the Metroplex. Trees waterlogged from Gustav are falling in some places in east Texas. And, across the state line, flooding as far east as Lake Charles, La., which has a bit more effect on oil prices.

Hurricane Ike – oil refineries at risk

The map above comes via Wired and illustrates major oil/petrochemical facilities at risk. The worst of the storm surge is predicted to hit right in the area of the Houston Ship Channel.

Go here for a much more comprehensive update.

Hurricane Ike gas price gouging in Dallas Metroplex

Specifically in Duncanville, there’s a Phillips 66 on South Main Street, across from the DrPepper StarCenter, that’s jacked its price 40 cents a gallon.

More info as this develops.

The heartless of BushCo on Cuba

As Hurricane Ike is set to basically obliterate Cuba, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says “I don’t think … lifting of the embargo (against Cuba) would be wise.”

Let’s see if John McCain toes the BushCo line for Cuban votes in South Florida or not.