Why doesn't the Texas PUC just hire child labor? A modest proposal

Representatives of the Tex-ass Public Utility Commission testified to the Texas Senate on Wednesday that they're shorthanded, with a poor work-life balance and bleeding away employees, even as Tex-ass Legiscritters have reduced the work cap on total employee numbers.

So, since Rethuglicans in places like Idahell (Iowa, even Minnesota! — and, in case you're wondering, tho not as "blue" as 20 years ago, Dems control both houses of the Minnesota Lege) are talking about eliminating state child labor laws, why isn't Tex-ass? Some serious slackerdom going here. As the link in parentheses notes, New Joisey loosened child labor laws a year ago, too.

Those little kids could shinny up power poles like squirrels. Probably test for electrical shorts quickly.

And, the state could also make this a "workfare" requirement for kids of adults getting state assistance. (ARE THERE any adults who get state assistance? "Here's your $3 of food stamps on the Lone Star Card. Call us back in a week.)

Oh, a 5 percent pay raise for employees in the libertarian capital of Texas, aka Bay Area East? Won't attract more adults. Better hire more children.

Cedar Hill ISD could close school

Beltline Intermediate School in the suburban Dallas school district Tmay be shut downy. Why? Rick Perry's economic miracle declining property tax revenues, of course.

I'm still waiting for the next school funding lawsuit against the state. That will be three during Perry's reign. How long until even GOP soccer moms get tired of him, and the GOP Legislature he rode in on? Well, it's been a whole decade, two lawsuits, and even a legislative GOP that balked at Tricky Ricky's education funding moronity in the first 2005 special session. Since I don't have kids, I can laugh my head off at this schadenfreude.

That said, raising money from lobbyists for themselves apparently isn't a problem

Why Texas' debthole could be well over $27B

Why? Why might the nominal two-year deficit of the state of Texas, set at $27 billion if the GOPocrats actually wanted to maintain the current level of services, potentially be much worse than that?

Because the crunch in the housing market may not have bottomed out yet in Texas, that's why.

Proof? Foreclosure rates for 2010 in all of Texas biggest metro areas climbed well above those of 2009.

Houston was up 26 percent, the highest percentage increase in top 50 metro areas. Austin up 22 percent. Dallas-Fort Worth up 16 percent from 2009. San Antonio up about 13 percent.

That said, this is still all relative right now, as none of the cities' foreclosure rates cracks the top 100 metro areas for 2010. But, it could foreshadow more problems in 2011, which the Texas Legislature had better consider on things like school funding.

I've already said I wouldn't be surprised if the state faced yet another lawsuit over school funding issues. With it likely, in my estimation, that foreclosure rates in Texas metro areas will get worse this year than 2010, the likelihood of that lawsuit increases.

And, here's more on why those numbers might increase.

“Deep fault lines of risk remain and could potentially trigger more waves of foreclosure activity in 2011 and beyond,” RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer James J. Saccacio said.

The number of U.S. homes receiving a foreclosure filing will jump 20 percent this year as unemployment remains high, RealtyTrac said earlier this month.

The 10 cities with the highest foreclosure rates last year all had fewer filings than in 2009, the company said today. Six of them -- five in California -- also had declines from 2008. Still, filings “remained five to 10 times higher than historic norms in most of those hard-hit markets,” Saccacio said.

Further thought that, even as the subprime bubble in the Southwest starts to deflate, it could keep up in Texas.

One reason for this? A number of SoCal residents retired, sold out, and moved to Texas rather than California. In many cases, their investments may have gone south, payments on the houses they sold (or rented out) may be in disarray, and so forth.

I expect foreclosure issues to get significantly worse in 2011, followed by modest to moderate improvement in 2012.

If, with that, school districts win a funding lawsuit, the debthole is probably more like $40 billion.

How can Texas Lege make up $10B in education money?

According to page 6 of the Legislative Budget Bureau's budget summary, the Texas Legislature is $9.8 billion with-a-b short of fully funding school finance formulas.

And, given previous lawsuits over state funding for K-12 education, don't be surprised to see another oneat some point.

“They’ve got to pass a major school finance bill with major cuts in it,” said school finance expert Dan Casey, who predicts renewed interest in a lawsuit against the state “if you see cuts of this magnitude and no changes in standards.”

But, the draft budget will give no new money to school districts, neither to offset property tax declines nor to allow for student increases.

So, we'll get yet another in an ongoing series of lawsuits over education funding, wasting state and school district money on legal fees that could have been spent on education.

And, the Texas GOP damn well knows that.

It all stems from the revisions of the business/franchise tax that came in "under estimates." Frankly, I think when the tax was being revised, the Texas GOP knew it was going to lower revenues, and that's what it wanted.

In any case, it was warned.

To understand how this happened, you have to go back to 2006, when Texas lawmakers passed a massive tax reform plan. The goal was to cut property taxes without costing the state any money. Perry designed a “tax swap” that would reduce property taxes and replace the lost revenue with a new business tax.

There was one major flaw with this plan — it didn’t balance. Property taxes were cut by $14 billion annually. But the new business tax brought in only $9 billion a year in new money. As a result, the tax-swap plan has burned a $5 billion hole in the budget every year since. (In 2007, a booming economy helped mask the problem, and in the 2009 session, lawmakers used $12 billion in federal stimulus money to fill the gap.)
The imbalance was well known. The Texas comptroller’s office warned Perry in 2006 that his plan didn’t pay for itself. The comptroller’s office estimated the plan would result in a five-year deficit of $23 billion. Perry and other legislative leaders ignored those warnings. Some Democrats in Austin suspect that G.O.P. leaders intentionally created this structural deficit as a way tamp down state spending. And some Republican leaders and conservative activist groups have made statements in recent weeks that expressed downright giddiness at the prospect of deep cuts in state spending. Lieut. Gov. David Dewhurst referred to the budget gap in his inaugural speech on Jan. 18 as an “opportunity.”

Whatever the reason for the structural deficit, the bill is now coming due. The 2006 tax swap has resulted in a shortfall of at least $20.9 billion the past two budget cycles, according to an analysis by the Center for Public Policy Priorities, a left-leaning Austin think tank.

That $20.9 billion hole accounts for the majority of Texas’ current $27 billion shortfall.

Yeppers. But, big biz ain't the poor.

As CNN puts it, even budget deficits are bigger in Texas. So are the budget lies.

What RED state has a potential $100B deficit?

Nooohhh, that's not a blue state, it's not a deficit-loving liberal haven.

It's Tejas, controlled in governorship AND both houses of the same, part-time, Third World legislature for the whole last decade.

That's right — over the next two years of the two-year budget cycle of the unrepresentative Third World-type legislature that meets only ever other year, the current shortfall projection is $95 billion with a B. Round it up to $100 billion for convenience.

And, of course Texas Republicans never raise taxes, noooooo.

But, as documented in the story, which actually only tells the half of it, Texas Rethugs have had no problem increasing fee after fee, and even inventing new ones, over the last decade.

That said, Rethugs, now that you have a supermajority in the House and are likely to impose one in the Senate, like in 2009, you can drain away on the rainy day fun. Texas Democrats, you can't do a damned thing to influence the budget otherwise, anyway. So, you can either be ball-less Obamiacs, or force the GOP to round up unanimity to drain the rainy day fund itself.

Now, if the GOP in the Texas Senate pledges NOT to do what it DID do in 2009 - that is, lowering the supermajority bar from 2/3 to 3/5 - House AND Senate Dems may work more with their GOP counterparts. But, since the GOP now has a House supermajority, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Note: This corrects the original version, where I said the GOP had a supermajority in both House and Senate.

Is John Sharp about to become a Republican?

Check out all the GOPers, plus T. Boone, who will be with the alleged “Democrat” and former Texas Comptroller John Sharp at a Texas Workforce Commission to-do in January, per a TWC press release:

AUSTIN – Former Texas Comptroller John Sharp will join an impressive group of business and government leaders at the upcoming economic summit, Putting America Back to Work, scheduled for January 15 through 16, 2009 in Austin and hosted by the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC). Sharp will open the second day of the conference as the breakfast keynote speaker.

Top experts will gather to address critical regional and national economic challenges facing our nation today. Sharp will join other leaders in the areas of the economy, energy and manufacturing including:

• Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst
• Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Todd Staples
• BP Capital Chairman T. Boone Pickens
• TWC Chairman Tom Pauken
• Former Texas Secretary of State Phil Wilson, Senior Vice President of Public Affairs, Luminant.

“The United States is at an economic tipping point,” said TWC Chairman Tom Pauken. “Now is the time for serious, long-term thinking on the major economic issues facing America.”

Following a keynote address by T. Boone Pickens, panel discussions will address Lessening Our Dependence on Foreign Energy, The Texas Economic Model, Rebuilding Our Manufacturing Base, and Challenges of Our Business Tax Structure. Texas business, economic development and education leaders are invited to attend this important event to share ideas and develop strategies to move Texas forward during these challenging economic times.

All Republicans, including a possible Senate race opponent and one of the Texs GOP's top nutbars, plus a slick oilman wanting to make money off of his natural gas and water and an exec with Texas' dirtiest electric power generator.

Nice company, John. Why don't you go ahead and make it permanent?

In the real world, no, I doubt El Sharpie is actually changing parties. That said, with company like this, he's running to the right-hand edge of the Democrats, and will almost surely guarantee that he is not nominated.

Sorry, Paul Burka, but with something like this, John Sharp's political struggles are clearly more than just bad timing, though that is problematic enough.