SocraticGadfly: 12/15/24 - 12/22/24

December 17, 2024

Greg Casar elected head of the Pergressuve Cucks; And?

That's what I call the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and with good reason.

Casar, a freshman Congresscritter from right here in Tex-ass, has been elected head of the group.

The only way he can make the org better is to boot about half its members, one of the things I said at that top link that's a problem with it.

Unfortunately, per the Trib story, he likely won't:

He would rather build coalitions than pass ideological purity tests that have pushed voters away from the left. He espouses a more working class message, steering away from the culture wars and back to economic concerns that dominated voters’ minds this year.

Business as usual. Oh, sure, in various places in various stories, he condemns the Joe Manchins of the world, but says it wasn't that Yachtsman Joe wasn't too liberal or too conservative, but that they didn't offer enough progress. It's statements like this that lead me to use the word "pergressuve."

Current head Pramila Jayapal, one of the worst cucks, didn't run again, because she was term-limited.

That said? 

Nobody else wanted it.

Indeed, per this piece, Casar was unopposed.

Also meanwhile, what if anything will the Cucks as a caucus say about Ukraine, the issue in my top link that got them the name "Pergressuve Cucks." Or Israel and Gaza, where the Cucks' cave-in got Jayapal designated as "one of the worst cucks." I mean, St. Bernard of Sanders follows the left hand of the duopoly party line on foreign policy, slight noises on Israel aside.

Well, actually, we know Casar is a cuck on this issue. He willingly conflates anti-Zionism and antisemitism, supports full support for Israel, opposes BDS etc. And, Greg? The two-state solution is as dead as a fucking doorknob because Israel killed it. He opposes "offensive" military aid for Israel, but who knows what that is? None of this is different from St. Bernard. The Austin chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America unendorsed him, in fact in this year's general election to his second term.

Let's get back to this "unopposed," though.

OK, the Cucks tout having about 100 members. And, NOBODY besides Casar — a freshman, I remind you — wanted this? Shit, that's a caucus that has clearly decided to File 13 itself. Seriously. It's like saying, "We're OK with being semi-irrelevant."

Will the Texas Rethuglicans really censure anybody?

The Trib looks at the possibility of the Texas Republican Party censuring anybody who does not vote for David Cook, choice of the House GOP Caucus, for Speaker. It also looks at the possibility, nay probability, of legal action by the censurees.

Sadly, it does not look at the possibility of a post-Gilberto Hinojosa Texas Democratic Party shifting its Overton window right and recruiting any censurees.

Censures were enacted against the likes of McDade Phelan in 2023. But, the 2024 state convention said the party can block a censuree from the next primary ballot, as a major change.

The Trib talks lawsuits.

“It's very unusual for a group of unelected party members to essentially say that they are going to deny duly elected officials the ability to run under the party's name,” said Joshua Blank, research director at University of Texas-Austin’s Texas Politics Project. “I think the one thing that's guaranteed here is that this will lead to a lawsuit if it's applied.”

The Trib cites state and federal court opinions in similar cases. On the other hand, some of those other cases were about restricting voting and not valid parallels, and others were decisions about individual candidates based on their backgrounds, such as "honorary" ex-Klansman.

The party censure's fallout is a different kettle of fish.  A censured candidate MIGHT win a primary ballot access lawsuit, but I'd by no means guarantee that.

==

Meanwhile, Dustin Burrows still claims he has the votes to be Speaker. Will this soften his support further, which started eroding the day after the House GOP Caucus meet? Per this Trib update, he now stands publicly at 71.

And will Strangeabbott and his paid political consultants, whether working on his behalf or not, continue to try to play both sides against the middle?

==

Chris Hooks weighs in at the Monthly, noting that whomever succeeds McDade will be the fourth Speaker in six Lege sessions, comparing them to the wives of Henry VIII. He sets out the background terms of these struggles in a nut graf:

For two decades, two Republican factions have struggled for control of the lower chamber. You could describe these sects as “far right” and “centrist,” but those terms obscure as much as they clarify. Whatever differences exist between the two cohorts on most policy issues are narrow. It is perhaps more accurate to say that this is a fight between what you could call institutionalists, who cling to a Burkean idea that the House should have sovereign authority over itself, and populists, who believe the body should function as an appendage of the party’s right-wing base and, though they prefer to de-emphasize it, its billionaire funders.

I think that gets it right.

Next, we get a petard-hoist side note:

Burrows helped institute the principle that the Speaker should be elected by the caucus, and command the support of its members, before any vote by the full House.

There you are!

Hooks speculates about the possibility of a third GOP candidate. Per my "started eroding" link, I said House Dems leader Gene Wu should have been actively encouraging that at the time of the GOP Caucus meet, even if he had been elected Dem head just a day earlier.

December 16, 2024

Climate crisis news: Tipping point in the Arctic, Atlantic circulation, drying planet

Climate scientists, especially those who worry more than climate change Obamiacs like Michael Mann and Katharine Hayhoe, talk regularly about "tipping points."

And, in the past year, per the headline, we may have hit one of those.

The Arctic last year became a net carbon emitter. Remember that "carbon" in these discussions includes other greenhouse gases besides carbon dioxide. In this case, of course, it includes methane releases from a warming tundra.

This probably is NOT a one-off. I'm sure the climate science world will be giving this more scrutiny over the next year or so. 

The study notes that increased Arctic wildfires are removing more and more cover from tundra areas, helping accelerate the methane release.

==

Second?


The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a hot-cold deepwater conveyor belt, is showing definite if modest signs of weakening, as more glacier melt from Greenland screws with the northern end of the deep waters beneath the Gulf Stream.

Per a follow-up piece at Yale Climate, how much of a worry is this? More than you might think, unless you know a fair amount about what all is involved, including that this will affect global ocean currents, not just the North Atlantic. And, yes, that includes a tipping point on moving from weakening to collapse. Per links inside the piece? It could be just 30 years or so, a bit past midcentury. It may be longer. (Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, authors of both pieces, say early next century.) But, per the early possible date? It could be in OUR lifetimes, not the stereotypical children's or grandchildren's.

Northern Europe will bear the brunt of the problem. But, per some modeling, and what I said about "global"? It will affect everybody:

By the time the collapse was done, the impacts included Arctic sea ice spreading far into the North Atlantic and wet and dry seasons trading places in the Amazon. The average February temperature plummeted by a bone-chilling 15 degrees Celsius (27 degrees Fahrenheit) in London and by around 3°C (5°F) across the mid-Mississippi Valley of the United States.

There you go. Worse than the Little Ice Age in northwestern Europe. Pre-Industrial Revolution, or late Little Ice Age, in the heartland of the US.

==

Already, other large scale climate effects have made three-quarters of the planet's land area drier. Yale Climate noted that an AMOC collapse would flip wet and dry seasons in Brazil. It's also one of the worst places for increasing dryness, and the ongoing deforestation doesn't help.