The #Phillies love song of J. Scott Proefrock

With apologies to T.S. Eliot, let us look at "The Love Song of J. Scott Proefrock," as the team bids a not-totally-fond farewell to lame-duck general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

THE LOVE SONG OF J. SCOTT PROEFROCK

Let us go then, you and I,

When the evening is spread out against the sky

Like Amaro, etherized upon a table;

Let us go, through a half-deserted stadium,

The muttering tedium

Of restless nights in one-night cheap hotels

And sawdust restaurants with oyster-shells:

Streets that follow like a tedious argument

Of lamentable intent

To lead you to an overwhelming question ...

Oh, do not ask, “What is it?”

Let us go and make our visit.

In the room the women come and go

Talking of Ruben Amaro.

The yellow fog that rubs its back upon the window-panes,

The yellow smoke that rubs its muzzle on the window-panes,

Licked its tongue into the corners of the evening,

Lingered upon the pools that stand in drains,

Let fall upon its back the soot that falls from chimneys,

Slipped by the terrace, made a sudden leap,

And seeing it was a gameless October night,

Curled once about the house, and fell asleep.

And indeed there will be time

For the yellow smoke that slides along the street,

Rubbing its back upon the window-panes;

There will be time, there will be time

To prepare a trade to counter the trades you get;

There will be time to murder and abet,

And time for all the works and days of hands

That lift and drop a question at home plate;

Time for you and time for me,

And time yet for a hundred indecisions,

And for a hundred visions and revisions,

Before the taking of a toast and tea.

In the room the women come and go

Talking of Ruben Amaro.

And indeed there will be time

To wonder, “Do I dare?” and, “Do I dare?”

Time to turn back and descend the stair,

With a bald spot in the middle of my hair —

(They will say: “How his hair is growing thin!”)

My morning coat, my collar mounting firmly to the chin,

My necktie rich and modest, but asserted by a simple pin —

(They will say: “But how his arms and legs are thin!”)

Do I dare

Disturb the major leagues?

In a minute there is time

For decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse.

For I have known them all already, known them all:

Have known the evenings, mornings, afternoons,

I have measured out my life with trade returns;

I know the voices dying with a dying fall

Beneath the music from a farther room.

               So how should I presume?

…

He grows old ... He grows old ...

I shall pay more for my first baseman cold.

Shall I part my hair behind?   Do I dare to trade a Lee?

I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk beside the sea.

I have heard the boo-boos cawing, Utley, Utley.

I ignore that they still will sing to me.

I have seen them riding seaward on the waves

Combing the white hair of the waves blown back

When the wind blows the water white and black.

We have lingered in the chambers of the sea

By sea-girls wreathed with seaweed red and brown

Till human voices wake us, and we drown.

Injury bug hits #Cardinals again; could lead to creative trade

Adam Wainwright's Achilles tendon blowout was the first serious injury for the Cardinals this year.

Now, they've got a second that, while not quite that bad, isn't good.

Matt Adams, out for
awhile after a Joe Kelly
baserunning oops

Matt Adams, taking the wrong page from the Joe Kelly baserunning playbook, has torn his quadriceps tendon badly enough that he could need surgery, and will be out significant time, with or without that. (Remember that Kelly didn't have surgery on his bad hammy, and missed a couple of months.) GM John Mozeliak is now using the words "long term."

Update, May 28: Looks like he's semi-officially out for the season.

That means more time for Mark Reynolds, immediately.

Below that? Unless Xavier Scruggs becomes more than he's shown so far, he's not a long-term answer. And, Reynolds wasn't supposed to be a starter himself, though so far this year, he's actually been batting better than Adams. But not enough to cover up a combined struggle at the spot.

So, what are some other semi-realistic options?

Allen Craig? Please; there's a reason the Sawks sent him down to Pawtucket.

Ryan Howard: Is a
St. Louis homecoming
"in the Cards"?

Ryan Howard? He's actually having an Indian summer year, being an above-average batter so far. Problem is, that means Ruben Amaro will increase his ask, especially if Mozeliak wants Amaro to eat a lot of salary.

But, here's a gamble worth considering. If Mo can convince Amaro that Jon Jay's early-season struggles are just due to his bum thumb, he could be trade bait for Howard, if Amaro will still eat at least 80 percent of that contract. It's essentially a gamble against that on Mo's part, and a gamble in favor of the idea that Peter Bourjos can keep up his current production.

And, at an 80 percent salary-eat, that makes it an official wash on money. (Not counting the $10M buyout on Howard in 2017, which I originally forgot about. Anyway, that's bridge that can be crossed later. Maybe you could get Howard to do a 2/$15 extension or something that eases the hit for the Cards.)

It also, with Jay gone, probably puts more somewhat more pressure on Mo to resign Jason Heyward.

But, hey, it's all moving puzzle pieces. And, with Randal Grichuk raking, and Stephen Piscotty probably getting a September call-up, if not sooner, the pressure isn't THAT big. Besides, with Jay 30 this year, and me not sure why Mo gave him a two-year deal this past offseason to buy up his final arbitration year as well as the current one, he might not have had a long-term Cardinal home anyway. If the Cards don't resign Holliday, but do resign Heyward, that would give you, from left to right, Piscotty, Grichuk and Heyward in two years, keeping Bourjos as your fourth OF. Or put Piscotty in right if Holliday stays, in part due to not resigning Heyward.

Anyway, back to that trade. Mo can even throw in Pete Kozma for infield depth.

This is a trade I make if Amaro eats 80 percent of the salary, not counting that buyout. I'll consider it at 75 percent. If Amaro eats 75 percent of his current salary plus any portion of that buyout, I definitely make that trade.

And, this offseason, if nothing else, you can trade Adams for a backup catcher better than Tony Cruz who's a righty bat and can also play backup 1B. Some follow-up thoughts here.

No Lester — will the Sawks chase Hamels yet?

Cole Hamels —
next stop Boston?

Now that Jon Lester has inked his free agent contract with the Chicago Cubs instead of heading back to Boston, what will Red Sox GM Ben Cherington do next?

The general consensus is that if he wouldn't pay for Lester, then he sure won't pay for Max Scherzer.

And, if he was looking lefty-specific, too, that leaves trading for the Phillies' starter Cole Hamels as his next move.

So, if you're Ruben J. Amaro, with a chance to ask high — but yet realistically and not idiotically (you're wrong in your vote of confidence, Pat Gillick) — who do you want?

Here's a possibility.

I’d “accept” Allen Craig back with Mookie Betts and, say, Jackie Bradley plus top catching prospect Blake Swihart if I don’t push for Xander Bogaerts. (Jimmy Rollins is still OK, at least, so Bogaerts is not a "must," unlike OF upgrades.) Takes multiple OFs off Sawks hands, gambles on any sort of bounce back year from Craig, who can, of course, play 1B against righties if you don’t move Ryan Howard, or play 1B all the time if you do, and theoretically gives you your backstop of the future to replace Carlos Ruiz. And, by taking Craig's not small, but growing, contract, it does a bit of a financial "solid" back to Cherington while still reducing payroll and also building for the future.

Or, if you want to rebuild pitching, see if Matt Barnes might be in the mix.

This isn't set in stone, but something like this is quite realistic.

It's, note to Phils manager Ryne Sandberg? This is enough that it should "blow you away," as well as Ruben. And, it's something where you shouldn't idly sit by, waiting for Cherington to talk to you first, Ruben.

The package that ESPN suggests Theo would offer for Hamels? If it's lacking all three of Betts, Swihart and Barnes, I pass, if I'm Amaro. (And, Phillies fans, don't blame him if he does.) That's written from ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes and is as much PR for the Sawks as it is reality — it offers nothing but lower-level prospects and possibly Bradley as a throw-in.  And, that's far from the first time that Edes has written something that's as much PR as it is straight sports reporting, in my opinion.

For once in the past five years, Amaro is at least halfway in the driver's seat. Ask high, especially if you're willing to take Craig back on a gamble.

Besides, Hamels has better sabermetrics than Lester, albeit with a few more innings on his arm, and costs less, if only a touch less.

Of course, Boston is on Hamels' no-trade list, and may not change his mind.

As for a few fans, on HBT, who think it's ridiculous? "Aceepting" Craig back ... remember, his contract accelerates a lot in 2016 and 2017, and a bounce-back is a definite gamble ... would theoretically increase Amaro's haul. That's part of why I suggested it. It is a bit like eating some of Hamels' salary, but getting a small bit of return back. So, I think my idea is more reasonable than what Edes thinks the Sawks should offer. If Swihart is too much of an "ask" without return, offer Chooch back as part of the deal.

As for fans who would wonder why I could "tell" Theo this or that? I'm just blogging about a realistic trade possibility between two teams.

ESPN still won't cry uncle on A.J. Burnett

During spring training, I blogged about how bad the Phillies' contract for A.J. Burnett was. True, it was "only" for two years (despite ESPN claiming it was a 1-year deal at first) for a sweet $33.5 million. (I consider any X-year contract with a player option to be an X+1-contract for the obvious reason that, if he's teh suck, the team's still stuck with him for X+1 years.)

That's in refutation to ESPN's Jonah Keri, who said, at that time, when I asked if he was going to update this year's bad contracts list, he said "no," saying on Twitter:

Burnett had a great 2013 & signed 1-year deal, so no.

I would NOT call that last year "great."

And, as noted, I would not call his contract a 1-year deal.

Even I, though, was generous. Here, on that blog post, is my preseason prediction for Burnett:

185 innings. ERA+ of 102. A WAR of 1.3 and WAA of -0.2. 

He may well get the innings pitched. But, at a current ERA+ of 90, WAR of 0.9 and WAA of -0.3, the rest of his year would take a "push" to hit those numbers.

And, in a trade deadline piece, Jayson Stark is admitting the player option is a reason the Pirates don't want him back. However, he's still not willing to call it a bad contract. Nor a two-year contract.

#Sabermetrics: The Pujols advantage over other big boppers at first base

When Miguel Cabrera signed his big new contract with Detroit earlier this year, the response of this blogger and many pro sports writers was: Too long. Specifically, we generally cited the similar contract of Albert Pujols.

There's two other first basemen of roughly the same age to throw into this mix. That's Prince Fielder, traded from Detroit to Texas to let Miggy move from third to first, and Ryan Howard.

But, there's one difference between them.

Pujols is a plus fielder at first; none of the others are. In fact, none of them are close.

A friend of mine scoffed when I called Pujols a plus fielder, but the record doesn't lie. First, there's the two Gold Gloves — and four Fielding Bible awards. But, let's move beyond that into sabermetrics, since FB uses them much more than GG traditionally has.

The basics? Prince Albert has a career total (which includes a few OF and 3B games) of 134 fielding runs. And he has a career positive of 1.9 dWAR. 

For reference, the fielding and mustache god of modern first basemen, Keith Hernandez, has only, yes, only, 117 fielding runs and 0.6 career dWAR.

Now, to the others.

Howard's long been regarded as a statue, and stats don't lie. He weighs in with -46 fielding runs and -12.4 dWAR for his career.

Fielder? A couple of years ago, a lot of allegedly sabermetrically informed writers and bloggers talked about when he'd lose his range at first. I got news for you all — he never had it. At -93 fielding runs and -17.8 dWAR, he's worse than Howard. He's had a slightly longer career, but not that much longer. In other words, on average, each has cost his team a little more than a full point of dWAR, and around 7-10 fielding runs, per year.

Miggy, actually, comes off as relatively not so bad. At -77 fielding runs and -12.0 dWAR, in a career longer than Fielder's, let alone Howard's, and noting that most of this was at third not first, perhaps some of us have been a bit hard on him? 

Actually, no. His first couple of years at 3B in Miami weren't too bad, but he soon looked like crap. Detroit, let us not forget, quickly moved him to first after trading for him, before getting the even more immobile Fielder.

(All Baseball-Reference stats are for all positions for those playing multiple spots.)

Just to dip to Fangraphs, on a cross check, on total zone runs and ultimate zone rating per 150 defensive games.
Hernandez: 121/(no UZR)
Pujols: 96/6.2
Cabrera: -7/-2.0
Fielder: -38/-5.5
Howard: 14/-3.4 (really)
All Fangraphs numbers are for first base only. 

I did not include Joey Votto in any comparisons, for two reasons.

First, he's got an even shorter MLB career to date. Second, he doesn't have the "statue" reputation.

Sidebar: this shows that "we" still have a ways to go in advanced defensive metrics. While Baseball-Reference is my go-to for stats, and I generally rate it over Fangraphs, Fangraphs has its value. This isn't the first time the two have differed a lot on defensive issues. I don't really believe Fangraphs on Howard; on the other hand, I don't totally believe B-R that Pujols is in the same league as Hernandez. On the third hand, B-R's advanced fielding says that Prince Albert has just six fewer ground ball double plays initiated than does the Merry Mex. For comparison, Howard has about 80 fewer and Fielder about 75 fewer, so, maybe B-R shouldn't be doubted quite so much as I think.

Anyway, given all that I wrote above, on fielding, it makes me wonder if Prince Albert hasn't even been underappreciated in some way.

Anyway, moving on ...

Future realities?

Cabrera could go to DH as early as next year, if the Tigers don't resign Victor Martinez, or land another DH-first person. That, in turn probably depends on other things, starting with whether or not they resign Max Scherzer.

Fielder? Mitch Moreland's at DH now, and hits arbitration next year. He could be traded, or not. Why he's not the primary 1B in Arlington now, I have no idea other than two words: "Ron Washington." Of course, we know what he thinks about sabermetrics.

Howard? He should be traded to an AL team, but no trades out of Philly (sorry, Cliff Lee) are happening until Ruben Amaro is finally fired. That said, given that Howard refuses to adjust a lot, he's not that good of trade bait, except to AL teams with a short right field. Calling the Steinbrenner brothers!

Pujols? He's still a plus fielder. He's said he'll take a day here and there of being "spotted" at DH, but, as long as he's an even fielder, as well as a plus fielder (he started a 3-6-3 double play recently) why would you do anything but keep him at first? This is also part of why on overall WAR, and even more WAA, he's a cut above Cabrera and at least that much above the others.

It's also an advantage to the team. If you have someone who's still bringing this level of power and who can at the same time make a positive contribution with the glove or, at minimum, even a few years down the road, not make a negative one, it gives you more lineup flexibility.

Speaking of adjustments, most of Pujols' early home runs have been on high strikes. Whether he's guessing well, has lost a few pounds (it looks possible), has gone to a lighter bat, or is quicker on turning on the ball without the fasciitis, or some combination of the above, I don't know. But something's happened.

This all also shows that, even if Pujols' contract still turns out to be a long-term overpay, and even if 1B is not a defense-first position, it's still going to be much less of an overpay than Cabrera's new one, or even Fielder's current one, in all likelihood; that said, Fielder being younger helps a bit. Howard? We already know the truth about his albatross; the Phillies are just lucky on its shorter length.

And, let's not forget that, with passing the 500-HR mark, he's probably more likely to pass 600 than most the others on this list are to pass 500. 

===

Welcome, visitors from Fangraphs and elsewhere. See some of my other recent baseball blogging, including my touting of a new Kozma Line as a sabermetric replacement for the old Mendoza line and, with the century mark at Wrigley, my take on Babe Ruth's called shot.

Shock me: Phillies' Amaro channels Al Davis again with Burnett (updated)

Even if Cole Hamels reportedly might not be ready at the start of the season, flushing out $16M to former Pirate A.J. Burnett? That's just nuts.

I stand corrected. It could be up to $33.5 mil for 2 years, with a mutual option that Ruben Amaro, should he be lucky enough not to be fired, will surely be dumb enough to pick up. Jayson Stark adds that the contract also has a 20-team no-trade clause.

Stark also comments on that option year:

But even if both sides don't exercise that option, Burnett also has a player option for 2015 that would be worth between $7.5 million and $12.75 million, depending on his performance this season. And there are $1.75 million worth of what one source described as "reachable" performance bonuses in each of the two seasons. 

Holy crap, this is a hugely bad contract.

But wait, it's worse. Yes, worse!

This may, depending on mid-season call-ups and such, push the Phillies over the salary cap/lux tax limit. 

(Update, April 15: It's worse yet. Burnett has been, if not teh suck, kind of "indifferent." And know we know why: He has an inguinal hernia.)

Even with a healthy Hamels AND a Burnett signing (for less money), the Phils still have a good shot at finishing fourth in that division again. And, an outside shot at dragging the bottom.

Might be time for Jonah Keri to update this year's bad contracts list.

And, he says "no," saying on Twitter:

Burnett had a great 2013 & signed 1-year deal, so no.

I would NOT call that last year "great."

1.7 WAR? 107 ERA+? Even at a bit of a high price of $7M/WAR, it's still a 33 percent overpay. 

I was speaking somewhat tongue in cheek, knowing it's just a one-year deal. It's still an overpay, and probably more than 33 percent. Keri said he wasn't interested in 1-year numbers off B-R, so, longer term?

He's only had above a 110 ERA+ once in the past six seasons and above 2.4 WAR just once in the last eight. Both 2010 and 2011 were negative WAA. Maybe $12.5M for one year, but not $16. And, $12.5M, albeit per year for four years, is what Matt Garza got.

Jonah's still trying to make a case that even longer term, ERA isn't a good measure. But, ERA+, not ERA, does track reasonably close to fielding-independent pitching over longer term. And, I like Baseball-Reference better than Fangraphs for other reasons, including free RSS feed links to players for we bloggers.

Sorry, Jonah, but Amaro panicked for a team that ain't making the playoffs anyway. Hell, the Pirates didn't even given him a tender offer, and he had still been sitting on the shelf drawing almost no interest until Hamels came up with a bum wing.

Sadly, he's not alone in calling Burnett's recent work "great" or similar. Here's a fan blog:

Burnett was outstanding in his two years in a Pirates uniform, winning 26 games, pitching to a 3.41 ERA while being an innings eater, hurling 393.1 frames over his two years in Pittsburgh.

That's "outstanding"? Not. Not even close. And, let's add in that Burnett will be 37. Due for a bit of further age-related decline. It's also a sad day when 200 innings is an "innings eater." Speaking of innings eaters, I'd say this is worse than what the Snakes gave Bronson Arroyo, even if that was 2 years for $23.5 with the option buyout on a third year. (Speaking of, please note the poll at top right.)

Also, and not "sadly," but ... Jonah, you're wrong!

If you want me to go to Fangraphs, I can do that, Jonah? And, you know what? There, Burnett's 2013 FIP looks like a fluke. Fluke. His 2.80 is a career low and the only time he's been below 3.1. Thank you very much, and it's an overpay on your own stats terms, Jonah.

I got more reasons he's a fluke, looking at B-R. His 0.5 HR/9 ties a career low. His WHIP (and pitchers control walks, too) the lowest in six years. Sure, it's possible he can be in the same ballpark on all of these stats next year, but likely? I think not.

He seems to have "regression candidate" written across his forehead.

My predictions for a 2014 Burnett? 185 innings. ERA+ of 102. A WAR of 1.3 and WAA of -0.2. And, that might be generous. Have fun with your $16M, A.J. Have fun blowing money for a possible last-place team, Ruben. And, have fun as  defending this as not an overpay, all and sundry.

Plus, as David Schoenfield notes at ESPN's Sweet Spot, Burnett benefited from the Pirates doing a lot of strategic defensive shifts.

As noted often during their run to the playoffs, Pittsburgh was among the most aggressive teams in regards to infield shifts. Burnett is on record as being opposed to the shift; however, since 2012 the Pirates' staff batting average allowed on groundballs is .216 -- second lowest in the majors. Burnett's personal average since joining the club is .214. The league average for the same time frame is .231. Over the last two years, Burnett was the pitcher of record for 1,135 outs. Of those, 41 percent have come on the ground. 

The Phillies aren't much into that, plus their infield isn't a lot better than the Yankees. Thus, FIP wasn't so "independent," if you will.

Based on those estimates, the Pirates' offer of $12M, still a bit of an overpay, makes more sense. Per a friend, I don't know why he wasn't slapped with the tender label. Would $2M more too much for the Pirate payroll? That said, he's not a $16M man.

I hear petards hoisting, for both Amaro and Keri, I think.

Your thoughts? Feel free to vote in the poll at top right.

And, Jamie Moyer? Don't go in that broadcast booth just yet. I'll bet you've got Amaro on speed dial. If not, you should.

I'm sure that Amaro will once again refuse to trade anybody at the midseason trade deadline, either.

Have fun not rebuilding, Ruben. Have fun not getting value out of Cliff Lee. Speaking of Uncle Cliffy, and Ruben Amaro, and Jonah Keri, if the Phils do need to be in rebuilding mode, and I think two of the three of us agree on that one, paying a league-average 37-year-old $16 million on a 1-year contract isn't how you rebuild. Trading your top trade asset, an All-Star level lefty who can still bring value to an aged team with a thin farm system, is how you rebuild.

I mean, Amaro talked about midseason trades of Lee, Hamels or both last year but then never followed through. True, potential trade partners may have been lowballing him, but he may have been highballing them. And, if the Rangers and Tigers could make their big blockbuster trade this offseason, surely Lee could have been moved, too.

But I'm just a blogger, not a always-brilliant part of the ESPN/Grantland baseball writers studio, you know? I guess I don't know, even if I can quote Fangraphs as well as Baseball-Reference. But, if you really think buying Burnett instead of trading Cliff Lee is how Amaro should rebuild, well, OK, then. Maybe, after Amaro gets fired, you can be the next Phillies GM.

Add to this that, per the updates, Keri's doubling down on this not being a bad contract.

And, sarcastic? Me? Never.

Also, one-year contracts may not be so bad, but, if a team gets a regular history of overpays on 1-year contracts, cumulatively, they are bad.

Should the Phillies play hardball with Rollins?

With Jose Igelesias' stress fractures having him on the shelf for the Detroit Tigers for half the season, speculation next turned to free agent Stephen Drew as a possible signing. But Dave Dombrowski has put the kibosh on that.

He has been burning up the trade talks telephone, though. One obvious thought would be Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies. However, he's a 5-and-10 veteran who would have to waive his no-trade rights and so far, that's a definite not gonna from him. In part, his reasoning is that he's just 60 hits short of Mike Schmidt's Phillies career team record. On the other hand, new manager Ryne Sandburg has already shown he can make Rollins' life hell.

One way to make his life hell? Keep him at less than 434 plate appearances this year so his vesting option doesn't kick in. I'm not sure who you could replace him with, but, if, per Rollins' statement that he wouldn't even consider a trade unless the Phils are well out of the race, that would be a good excuse to try a AAA or even a AA and a AAA prospect at the big club, and, in turn, block Rollins from his vesting.

That would then make him a free agent, with the QO hanging over his head.

I mean, César Hernandez certainly looks ready enough to step up. And Drew's own injury history aside, he's still four years younger than Rollins, which means that J-Roll probably isn't worth as much in trade bait as Amaro thinks he is, or as Rollins does.

This week in MLB: Bad contracts, broken Rangers, good contracts, #Cardinals cockamamie

Bad contracts? Here's my take on the badness of Philly overpaying for A.J. Burnett, especially since we now know it's a two-year deal, not one year. Phillies fans, is it time to place props bets, or over-unders, on GM Ruben Amaro lasting out the season or not?

Broken Rangers? The rotation in Arlington looks pretty shaky to me if Matt Harrison's latest back woes are a harbinger. Will Jon Daniels chase Ervin Santana or Jeff Samardzija? Should he?

Good contracts? It still seems odd, hence my year-early comment, but, all contracts are a gamble and the Braves seem to be doing right by Andrelton Simmons. That said, doesn't this mean that Arte Moreno and Jerry DiPoto realistically have one month left to do something team-friendly and player-friendly both with Mike Trout? And, from the team's point of view, the Orioles' cheap deal for former Ranger RF Nelson Cruz is fairly good, though I think it's not perfect. It also will likely do one of two things: It will either quickly clear up much of the remaining free agent logjam, or it's going to lead a couple of players  (read: agents) to dig in their heels.

Falling between good and bad? I'm not sold on the megadeal for Homer Bailey. That includes arguing that middle-market teams shouldn't put that many contract-egg dollars into middle-level players.

Cardinals cockamamie? Bernie Miklasz cues up the mythical "Cardinal way," with some extra sugar of St. Stan Musial, to implore Ozzie Smith and Tony La Russa to kiss and make up. Read more of my thoughts on why this is quite possibly the worst column Bernie's ever written.

And, speaking of Ozzie, no, Derek Jeter, Yankeedom and all, is not a better lifetime shortstop than him.

Finally, I talk about why I prefer Baseball-Reference to Fangraphs in making those and other observations.

Post-Tanaka, one pitcher missing in trade rumors

With Masahiro Tanaka now signed, the MLB rumor mill has moved on to not only further free agent dominoes, but the possibility of trades of top pitchers.

We hear plenty about David Price. Some about James Shields. Even a bit about Max Scherzer.

Where's Cliff Lee in the mix?

He's signed for two more years plus an option, so under more control than any of the above three. Generally good health, for another plus. And, a lefty.

All we need now is for Ruben Amaro to finally push the "rebuild" button.

And, here's a "possible."

Sending Uncle Cliffy to the Red Sox.

For whom?

Let's say Will Middlebrooks, Mike Carp, and a minor league pitching prospect and a minor league OF or SS prospect.

That, especially with Jon Lester willing to give Boston a home discount on a contract extension, plus the possibility of rolling over John Lackey's 2015 option into a new contract, gives the Sox a great top of the rotation. And, they can then let both Jake Peavy and Ryan Dempster walk after this year, or trade one of them now. That, in turn, frees up free agent money for 2015.

It also lets Boston address the jam on the left half of the infield by resigning Stephen Drew and going with him and Xander Bogaerts.  And, it certainly lets the Phillies rebuild, and get younger.

If not Boston, I'm sure there are other "possibles." Would the Rangers be interested? It would probably be more prospects and fewer MLB players in a trade from them. The Mariners?

Why don't I think the Phillies would get more?

Lee's 35 this season, for one thing. I noted he's generally been healthy, but, at some point, he's likely to start running out of gas in the tank. 

Second, as runs on pitchers have shown, they're that valuable. So, getting a top minor league prospect, maybe even two, would definitely help for the long term.

Third, Philly is a batters' park. Freeing up his salary lets them focus on restocking on position players in free agency, per the link.

#ESPN fluffs another non-HOFer, Jimmy Rollins of Phillies

ESPN seems to have reached another new low in touting a player as a potential Hall of Famer who's not even close. This time, it's Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins, and the touting isn't from Jayson Stark or Jim Caple, but David Schonfield at the SweetSpot blog.

Here's all you need to know about why, per physicist Wolfgang Pauli, Schoenfield is "not even wrong": Rollins' career OPS+ is below 100.

That's right, he's a below-MLB average hitter for his career.

My minimum, for batters, is generally 110. Rollins' 97 isn't close. Other negatives? Career WAA below 20, and there's no chance he'll get it above 30, let alone 35, by the time he retires.

That said, he plays a skill position, shortstop, right?

But, he's no Ozzie Smith. He's not even a Barry Larkin.

And, the last of his Gold Gloves? Won with a dWAR of exactly zero. And, he's not going to win any more.

Oh, by the time he ends his career, I'd put him in the Hall of Very Good. But not the HOF.

But, here's what all Schoenfield claims as "Yes" material:

• Career length. He's already at 2,024 hits as he enters his age-34 season; 3,000 is probably out of reach (he'd have to average 154 hits through age 39), but he should end up well north of 2,500.
• Speed. He has 403 career steals and just 83 caught stealing. His career total of 61 baserunning runs ranks 16th since 1901, according to Baseball-Reference.
• Power at a premium defensive position: 421 doubles, 105 triples, 193 home runs. Since 1901, he's 13th in extra-base hits among players who played at least 75 percent of their games at shortstop or second base. (Eight of the 12 ahead of him are in the Hall of Fame, and the others are Jeff Kent, Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada and Lou Whitaker. Five of the next seven are Hall of Famers as well.)
• Defense. Four Gold Gloves and pretty good advanced defensive metrics (plus-51 runs via Baseball-Reference).
• Durability. Nine seasons of 154-plus games. Durability is a skill.
• That MVP Award in 2007. It was much-maligned in some circles at the time, due to his .296 average and .344 OBP (offensive numbers were still sky-high in 2007), but it wasn't that egregious as he ranked sixth (Baseball-Reference) and seventh (FanGraphs) among NL position players in WAR. I mean, this wasn't Andre Dawson 1987 or anything.
• Championship teams. Played on five straight division winners and has a World Series title. So far.
• Fame. I'd say yes.

Let's dissect those in reverse.

1. He won't break 2,500 in the next three years. The way he's tailed off, he probably ends at just over 2,600. That's not "well north" of 2,500.
2. Speed? Yes, he is good at that. But, not as good as Oz, who had nearly 600 steals.
3. Power at a primo defensive position? Yes, he's good, but in a bandbox ballpark for much of his career, and he's overrated as a fielder at his primo position.
4. Defense? He's below average for his career on range factor. I've noted his fourth GG was undeserved. He's not good at all on total zone runs. His career putouts, assists and DPs turned as shortstop aren't fantastic.
5. Durability? Three of his last five seasons have missed that mark.
6. MVP award? Schoenfield himself qualifies it.
7. Championships? Not the primary cause of them, himself.
8. Fame? Per Schoenfield, now we ARE back at the Jack Morris argument.

Puhleeze.

Finally, Schoenfield misses the "smell test," or rather, the "eyeballs test."

Do you, if not immediately, fairly quickly think "Hall of Fame" when you look at Rollins? I don't.

Was this the Phillies' last, best chance?

IT sure looks the Philadelphia Phillies could age overnight, at least at the plate. The AP confirms that 1B Ryan Howard did tear his Achilles tendon in Friday's NLDS loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. Per Cot's Contracts, their biggest player contract decision is on Roy Oswalt, followed by Jimmy Rollins. Raul Ibanez is a no-brainer to let go, unless he comes back cheap.

Given that he's not had a killer full season since 2008, I can't see Philly agreeing to the $16M mutual option. Will Oswalt agree to something like 2/$24 or 3/$33? Would Philly do that? Would it do that with an eye to a sign-and-trade?

Rollins hasn't played above replacement level since 2007. He's gone, unless he comes back for what he made this year.

Per position player free agents, Philly could aim for Jose Reyes and/or look for an outfielder on the cheap if it doesn't trust John Mayberry Jr. to step up and replace Ibanez.

And, the Phillies' outlook next year also depends on what the Atlanta Braves do. Late-season meltdown aside, the Braves' record was about what I thought it would be at the start of the season. Coming back angry next year, especially if management takes a free-agent plunge, I think the Braves have to be considered NL East favorites.

Phillies' injury woes pile up

First it was Chase Utley. Now it's Placido Polanco who's ailing in the Phillies' infield.

Polanco insists he's not worried about a hyperextended elbow:

"It's just a day-to-day thing I think," Polanco said. "When I've had it before, I never stopped playing. But since I had surgery, they took me out."

Polanco was limited to 132 games in 2010 while dealing with chronic left elbow pain. He had scar tissue and bone spurs removed from the arm when he underwent surgery in November.

"It's right where I had the surgery, but it's nothing bad," he said. "I've had it before. I've had it a million times. But the fact that I had surgery on that elbow, we're being safe. We're playing it very safe. We'll see how it feels tomorrow and the next day, take it a day at a time."

Reality?

If he's dinged enough to play no more than 130 games this year, and at last year's OPS+ of about .726, and if Utley comes in with about the same .832 OPS+ of last year, assuming Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard don't improve on last year, and that batting order doesn't strike a lot of fear anywhere.

Add in the tendinits of Brad Lidge, whether he winds up as closer or set-up man, and I wouldn't print those Red Sox-Phillies World Series tickets and programs yet.