Mugabe could REALLY be in trouble

Running out of money to pay the army that keeps you in dictatorial power is usually not a good sign, not if your name is Robert Mugabe.

What’s up?

Sanctions are starting to bite. The Zimbabwean treasury is running out of paper from Europe to print banknotes. And, with hyperinflation, they’re running out of currency.

Ironically, the paper supplier, Germany’s Giesecke & Devrient, printed worthless currency for the Weimar Republic 85 years ago.

And, if you’ll read the full story, and look at the graphic at the bottom, you’ll see the situation in Zimbabwe is indeed rapidly approaching Weimar Germany.

The problem in Zimbabwe connected to South Africa

This waggish post at A Fistful of Euros (a great Euro blog) about the future of Zimbabwe, President Robert Mugabe and one-time challenger Morgan Tsvangirai says it all, in talking about the non-role that South African President Thabo Mbeki played:

Second, the regional approach to crisis resolution has failed i.e. leaving it to the Southern African Development Community. And it has failed because of Thabo Mbeki [Incidentally, I once heard a South African political comedian observe that you can't spell Thabo without Botha].

From a scientific point of view, that pair of sentences is carrying a boatload of baggage.

So much for China supporting African rights and democracy

Chinese troops have been seen on the streets of Mutare, Zimbabwe’s third-largest city. Zimbabwe’s democratically-ousted, but refusing-to-leave-office President Robert Mugabe signed trade pacts with China earlier this decade after Western ostracism. However, I don’t believe military forces are usually “traded” items.

Unfortunately, arms and munitions all too often are, and China has been caught trying to send a boatload of them to Zimbabwe:

China's support for President Mugabe’s regime has been highlighted by the arrival in South Africa of a ship carrying a large cache of weapons destined for Zimbabwe's armed forces. Dock workers in Durban refused to unload it.

The 300,000-strong South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (Satawu) said it would be “grossly irresponsible” to touch the cargo of ammunition, grenades and mortar rounds on board the Chinese ship An Yue Jiang anchored outside the port.

Three million rounds of AK-47 ammunition, 1,500 rocket-propelled grenades and more than 3,000 mortar rounds and mortar tubes are among the cargo on the Chinese ship, according to copies of the inventory published by a South African newspaper

According to Beeld, the documentation for the shipment was completed on 1 April, three days after the presidential vote.

That’s enough to start a war — or a civil war.

Robert Mugabe is not going to leave peacefully.

And he’s sure as hell not going to leave peacefully with blank-check support from his southern neighbor:

A South African government spokesman, Themba Maseko, said it would be difficult to stop the shipment.

Well, of course it will be difficult to stop as long as South African President Thabo Mbeki treats Mugabe with kid gloves. Which he has given no signs of stopping. What if his government reaches a deal with Beijing to take a “cut” while remaining a conduit to landlocked Zimbabwe?