Venezuela — between the devil and the deep blue sea

What prompts this post is an AP story, seen via The Dissident, about how a Homeland Security agent, Edwin Lopez, tried to get one of the pilots who flies Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to commandeer his plane and kidnap him into US hands:

The plot was hatched when a tipster showed up at the U.S. Embassy in the Dominican Republic on April 24, 2024, when Joe Biden was president. The informant purported to have information about Maduro’s planes, according to three of the officials familiar with the matter.

There's that.

More background:

A wiry former U.S. Army Ranger from Puerto Rico, Lopez was leading the agency’s investigations into transnational criminal networks with a presence in the Caribbean, after a storied career taking down drug gangs, money launderers and fraudsters. His work dismantling an illicit money-changing operation in Miami even earned him a public rebuke in 2010 from Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s predecessor. The embassy assignment was to be his last before retirement. 

The embassy was closed, although Lopez was still at his desk. He was handed a 3x5 index card with the tipster’s name and phone number. When he called, the tipster claimed that two planes used by Maduro were in the Dominican Republic undergoing costly repairs.

And, that's that.

This clearly was not a rogue operation.

We first know that per whom the AP interviewed:

Details of the ultimately unsuccessful plan were drawn from interviews with three current and former U.S. officials, as well as one of Maduro’s opponents. All spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were either not authorized to discuss the effort or feared retribution for disclosing it. The Associated Press also reviewed — and authenticated — text exchanges between Lopez and the pilot.

Followed by how this idea was "cleared":

Lopez had an epiphany, according to the current and former officials familiar with the operation: What if he could persuade the pilot to fly Maduro to a place where the U.S. could arrest him? 

Maduro had been indicted in 2020 on federal narco-terrorism charges accusing him of flooding the U.S. with cocaine. 

The DHS agent secured permission from his superiors and Dominican authorities to question the pilots, overcoming the officials’ concerns about creating a diplomatic rift with Venezuela.

OK. So, with Maduro in power now for a dozen years, the foreign policy, aka Nat-Sec Nutsacks™, portion of the "deep state" has become institutionalized.

Between the devil and the deep blue sea?

First, Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chavez, failed the Venezuelan people by not diversifying its economy more. He should have established oilfield engineering programs, or improved those that already existed, in Venezuela. This would let native workers extract and refine the "dirty" oil from the Orinoco basin.

He could have invested other oil money in coastal resorts, including gaming. He could have done all of this while keeping Cuba's Fidel Castro and Bolivia's Evo Morales propped up at 50 cents on the dollar. (My skeptical take on Morales is here. And here.) 

And didn't. And so, was already unpopular by 2002, and a coup attempt then. Indeed, part of the run-up to that coup attempt was that Chavez was basically trying to gut Petroleos de Venezuela, in part because of its workers' independence. (Side note: Non-skeptical leftists don't really like to talk about that.) While the US had advance knowledge, and swiftly recognized the coup's front man as president, there is no indication it ever gave it any assistance.

Then came the Great Recession and the plunge in oil prices. They were then kept down by the expansion of fracking in the US. 

Then Chavez died and henchman Maduro took over. I wrote my semi-takedown obit of Chavez here. (Wiki's page on Chavez has allegations that he actually died in December 2012, after re-election but before his new term started in 2013.) And, while Chavez maintained a veneer of electoral authenticity, it's arguable Maduro hasn't done that. Yes, Juan Guaidó has been a US flunky; that doesn't mean that Maduro didn't set the stage for a Guaidó to arise in the first place.

And, the 2024 election was almost certainly fraudulent. 

Hence, the devil and deep blue sea, part one.

Part two is that sanctions against Venezuela have had their bite worsened by Chavez's failure to diversify the economy, and Maduro not even trying. More on Venezuela's economy here. More on non-skeptical leftists or pseudo-leftists cutting blank checks to Maduro here.

Meanwhile, the US continues sanctions against Venezuela, except continuing to buy its oil, albeit with restrictions and surcharges, cuz Merikkka. 

Maduro is likely to live another 10 years minimum if not 20. A kidnapping rumor, along with Trump authorizing CIA covert operations which will surely fail and likely be comical, will only backfire.

As in many such cases, the US and "country X" become Brer Rabbit and Tar Baby to each other. 

As for drug-dealing allegations? Likely true. And, those drugs are being used by people in the US, including Trump supporters. See the paragraph above. 

109 more reasons I'm not a Democrat

Per the Clerk of the House of Representatives, that would be the number of Democrat Congresscritters voting yes on a resolution "denouncing the horrors of socialism." 

NOTE: "Socialism," not "Communism."

The bill attacks not only the "obvious commies," but (natch, being sponsored by Florida Woman Maria Elvira Salazar, both Hugo Chavez and Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, and Nicaragua's Danny Ortega.

It also, in its attacks on Stalin, refers to the Holodomor. Here's the first lie, a lie by omission. By percentage of population, the collectivization death rate was higher in the Kazakh SSR than in the Ukraine.

On inflation rate? Dependent on exact survey date last year, either South Sudan or Turkey may be higher than Venezuela. The wingers also ignore that the US has partial responsibility (but not total!) for Venezuela's inflation.

Here in Tex-ass, such non-shockers as Colin Allred, Henry Cuellar, Vicente Gonzales and Mark Veasey. (And, per Kuff, there's already blather about Allred challenging Havana Ted for the Senate in 2024.) To the west, ConservaDem Gabe Vasquez of the southern district in New Mexico. Among names I know from elsewhere? Dan Kildee of Flint. Knew his dad personally; my dad knew him better.

Then there's the "present" Dems, including Peanut Butter (and Eddie Bernice) Johnson replacement Jasmine Crockett, Houston fauxgressive Sheila Jackson Lee, California's Eshoo, and The Land of Disenchantment's other two Dems — Fanta Se's Teresa Leger Fernandez and Albuquerque's Melanie Stansbury. (The Monthly somehow thinks Crockett is a pergressuve.)

More on the maybe not-so-dumb Obama-IEA oil dump

That joint agreement by the United States and the International Energy Agency to release crude oil from strategic petroleum reserves? The one that had everybody scratching their head over its timing?

Well, there's more to it. As in, this may have been the equivalent of a pool bank shot, primarily involving Washington, the EU, speaking through the International Energy Agency, ... and the Saudis.

As early as May 11, Mr Obama telephoned King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to “discuss bilateral issues”, according to the Saudi press agency.

Boom ...

And, this wasn't a spur-of-the-moment thing:

For three months, dozens of senior oil officials from the US, South Korea, Germany and Japan worked secretly to execute what was one of the most daring moves by the International Energy Agency since its creation in 1974.

And, that's about the time we first started bombing Libya, on the usual delusional American belief that we'd topple Gaddhafi in a week or two.

There's one "interesting" part. In a story about how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating "suspicious" trades in oil just before the decision was announced, it notes the Saudis had already agreed to a production increase.

Maybe the White House thought it would take too long. Or that it would be of too low a quality compared to Libya's vaunted low-sulfur crude.

Or maybe all involved wanted to send a double-slapdown message to ... ohhh ... Iran and Venezuela?

Per the FT article linked at top:

In early May, Mr Obama dispatched a team of senior advisers to the region, including Michael Froman, White House deputy national security adviser, Daniel Poneman, deputy energy secretary, and Neal Wolin, deputy treasury secretary, for talks with Riyadh, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi.

Washington found the Saudis willing to ensure adequate supply.

The IEA nonetheless decided to send a clear message to the market that it was ready to act. On 19 May, at the conclusion of a regular meeting of its board of governors in Paris, the agency said: “We are prepared to consider using all tools that are at the disposal of IEA member countries.”

Venezuela and Iran, along with Algeria, were the three hardliners in the most recent OPEC meeting against raising production.

At the same time, Western nations didn't want to look like this was being done for too narrowly economic reasons, but, after the Saudis couldn't "carry" OPEC with them, decided to act. Japan, Britain and South Korea were other major "movers" on getting the IEA to act.

The primary beneficiary? Most of Libya's oil, of a very high quality, goes to Europe. So, even though the White House started the ball rolling, Europe had good reason to jump in, via the IEA.

The U.S.? Well, analysts as far away as Hong Kong are saying this will be the gateway for more "quantitative easing," but by different name and means. In fact, Forbes calls it QE2.5. If that's the case, and if it actually gets Obama himself, not just Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, to do something more in the way of stimulus-like action, then that's good.

El Presidente de Venezuela es il Duce!

Venezuelan voters, by a 54-46 margin, approved a constitutional referendum removing all term limits from politicians. Say hello to President-for-Life Hugo Chavez.

Sean Penn on the real Hugo Chavez - as part of Tres Amigos

Penn pulls the mask of the mainstream media, Vice President-elect Joe Biden (and Obama?) and the rest of the turgid "bipartisan foreign policy establishment to take a look at the real Hugo Chavez.

And, no, this wasn't some touchy-feely Hollywood liberal thing.

Accompanying Penn were respected, renowned historian Douglas Brinkley, not a touchy-feely liberal in anybody's book, and the acerbic, skeptical, insightful political and intellectual wild card ... Christopher Hitchens.

It's a much more realistic report than the bullshit PBS put out yesterday on Frontline.

That said, the Raul Castro part wasn't quite so well. He would meet only with Penn, not Brinkley or Hitch, and not even with Penn's Hispanic majordomo riding shotgun. He said that was because he'd informally promised his first official interview as president to somebody else.

That said, did you know Cuba's military and that of the U.S. have held monthly meetings over Guantanamo-related issues for more than a dozen years? And that Raul is willing to open Cuba's offshore oil rights to foreign exploration? Castro also refutes (and has U.S. military conformation) the idea that Cuba sponsors drug smuggling.

That said, Penn asked about, and Castro denied the mass existence of, political prisoners in Cuba.

Read the full story for the real story on both Raul Castro and Hugo Chavez.

Chavez wants nuclear power

And you thought Bush and the neocons were crapping bricks about Iran!

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says he wants a nuclear reactor.

Add to the pants-crapping factor — Vlad the Impaler Putin has already offered Russian help, Chavez says.

Worldwatch roundup — Scientology, Chavez, Japanese glass ceiling, tundra Armageddon

Scientology is on trial in France. Charges? Fraud and illegal drug prescription.

The fraud is from an individual who bought an “electrometer,” which basically sounds like an (alleged) at-home gizmo to check your engrams, or tune in Scientologist John Travolta’s old “Kotter” episodes.

Can’t wait to see Tom Cruise go postal on the Champs Elysees. I’m sure Parisians can wait a long time for that.

More seriously, why can’t OUR government ever nail the ElRons on fraud charges?

Yuriko Koike’s goal? Become Japan’s first woman prime minister. She’s competing with three challengers to head Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, which is by no means guaranteed retaining its hold on Parliament. She’s on the good side of relatively popular ex-PM Junichiro Koizumi.

Hugo Chavez tweaks the Yanqui nose in the White House by hosting some Russian warships.

Hugo says, “Go ahead and squeal, Yankees!”

And, since Palin-land is sounding more and more like a foreign country, and the Governor to Nowhere’s hubby once wanted it to be independent, you should take note …

Alaska will be home safe when the rapture comes.

Honduras makes left turn from U.S. to Chavez

Honduras, long considered a U.S. ally, is now cozying up to Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. Yesterday, it joined the Chavez-created Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas, or ALBA, based on complementary trade and cooperation instead of free-market competition.

Well, this should put a kink into CAFTA, too.

If Obama is a real progressive, he will embrace this move. We’ll see.

OPEC claims it can grow production until 2030

Umm, sure you can. This actually sounds like more Saudi oil propaganda.

As for the talk that OPEC can boost nonconventional resource production, the only OPEC member with huge nonconventional resources is Venezuela and its heavy sour oils. And it remains an open question whether or not Hugo Chavez’s nationalization of Venezuelan oil drove away enough expertise to hinder development of those oils.

Hugo Chavez officially busted by Interpol on FARC

Interpol confirms that the computers found in Ecuador on a raid by the Columbian government, and allegedly belonging to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, are the real deal, were not tampered with by Columbian governmental officials, and have a shitload of data on them.

As the Guardian notes, a summit of Andean nations opens Friday in Peru. The shit is going to hit the fan this weekend. (I could almost consider this an early Friday scatblogging post, but that’s stretching it a bit.)

More seriously, I’m not sure where Peru’s President Toledo will break. And, while Chile is liberal, it’s not left-liberal; it will certainly come down on Columbia’s side.

Will Chavez say ‘eff you’ back to Bush?

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez doesn’t have to “explain … its conspiring” to anybody, especially not a Bush Administration that risks looking like Yanqui imperlialistas.

The U.S. is accusing Chavez of conspiring with Columbia’s FARC guerillas against its elected government:

“It will either have to commit itself to using its relationship with the FARC to promote peace or it will have to explain why members of its government are conspiring against a democratic neighbor,” Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannonsaid in a speech in California.

That’s after a FARC leader’s laptop allegedly, allegedly had info about FARC ties to some Venezuelan officials.

First, Columbia got the computer by a cross-border raid into Ecuador that inflamed tensions in northern South America. Second, although neither Chavez nor FARC leaders have denied the computer’s content, you never know with this administration. Stovepiping evidence is just one step away from planting evidence.

Hell, Columbia’s President Alvaro Uribe could have had the evidence planted before turning the computer over to Washington.

Second, just what does “conspiring” mean in Washington’s mind? Does Dick Cheney think Chavez was meeting with FARC leaders in Prague?

Third, even Bush, while mendacious about oil matters, isn’t that stupid about them.

What’s he going to do, announce a trade embargo against Venezuela and watch oil prices climb even higher? Yes, oil is fungible, but, indirect transport still jacks up prices, as does the worry of instability.

Hugo Chavez nationalizing fellow Latin Americans now

After nationalizing oil operations last year, this time, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is nationalizing his country’s largest steelmaker, after union talks broke down.

But, this isn’t ExxonMobil. Ternium-Sidor, which is majority owned by Argentina’s Techint. How well will the “Bolivarian Revolution” go amongst Chavez’s fellow non-Yanquis?

Oil, corn, soy, rice all surge as Bernanke wilts

Oil jumps past $126/bbl. Inflation in the Eurozone means the European Central Bank won’t be cutting rates anytime soon. And, with the EU economy larger than the US economy (yes, you read that right, we’re no longer the world’s largest unified economy), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s hands are tied and his efforts on the US economy more limp and impotent all the time, as he lives up to his moniker of Worst Fed Head Since Greenspan™.

The oil surge was prompted by Venezuela jitters as the country and President Hugo Chavez’s ties to FARC rebels in Columbia are closer than the US first thought. If the US tries sanctions against Chavez, he might just turn off the pumps. And, since most of the oil industry in Venezuela is nationalized, he can do that.

Ag costs surged because the USDA expects corn production to drop 7 percent this year due to wet-weather planting delays.

Soybean futures were up mildly, while rice futures in Asian stock markets climbed the maximum permissible. The Myanmar cyclone devastation is certain to have a major impact on its rice crop. And, if reports are true that the country could have 500,000 dead, obviously the rice harvest is problematic anyway.

Oh, and I guess somebody forgot to give Uncle Fester Cheney the memo that the US economy was no longer No. 1.

Tom Friedman smears Venezuela

Friedman claims that Venezuela is part of a sphere of non-democratic petro-autocracies.

No, Tom, no. Hugo Chavez willingly accepted that he did not win a referendum last year to expand his powers.

That said, Tom, your neo-neo friends inside the U.S. government, who backed the coup against Chavez four years ago, tried to make Venezuela into a non-democratic petro-autocracy, but you’ve seen fit not to mention that, either then or now.

Just remember that however flat the world is, it’s not as flat as Tom Friedman’s head.

Venezuelan assets unfrozen as ExxonMobil loses legal round

London’s High Court has suspended a plan to freeze $12 billion of Venezuelan assets. ExxonMobile is seeking $12 billion in compensation from PDVSA, the Venezuelan national oil company, after its interests were nationalized by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez last year.

Sure Columbia found a computer

Columbia’s national police chief, Gen. Oscar Naranjo, claims his government has found a laptop computer belonging to left-wing rebel group Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a computer that allegedly has documents showing FARC is interested in buying uranium.

This line of international affairs BS is so straight out of Washington, specifically sounding like neocons in the Pentagon’s Office of Special Plans drew it up, it’s no wonder Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez have both moved troops to their borders with Columbia and, temporarily at least, suspended diplomatic relations.

As I said, this sounds like an OSP, or similar neocons’ group, baby.

BushCo probably has a few dozen laptops still on hold in the Whatagon’s Office of Special Plans. Besides the Iran and FARC ones, there's the Libya one, which didn’t have to be used, maybe the Somali one, the Syrian one, the Hezbullah one, etc.

That said, this idea could spread. Picture new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, or new PM Vladimir Putin, announcing he has just found a Chechen laptop. Or that China has found a Tibetan, or Mongolian, or Uyghur laptop.

BushCo pots and kettles, international division

In the wake of Argentina trying to extradite a citizen the U.S. is putting forward as a witness in a case accusing four others as being illegal foreign agents of Venezuela, State Department spokesman Sean McCormick had this to say:

“We have talked about (Venezuela’s) interference in the affairs of other countries. They have tried to insert themselves into various elections throughout the region and in several cases it has backfired.”

Just like your tacit support of the Venezuelean coup against Chavez backfired, eh?