How close to toast is Robinson Cano?

Robinson Cano

When people talk about the bottom 5 or bottom 10 current worst baseball contracts, they may think of the lumbering 35-year-old Albert Pujols (or older, according to the occasional rumor), the potential and expected decline of Miguel Cabrera, and the fragile, relapse-possible Josh Hamilton.

Not mentioned in those? Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano.

Maybe he should be. (Showing that even the best sportswriters can be fallible, Jonah Keri didn't even list Cano's current contract ($24M/year through his age 40 season) on his bottom 10. He didn't even give it a dishonorable mention.

Second base, defensively, is the most grinding position other than catcher. And history shows that.

Roberto Alomar's last good season was at age 33. Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker, both of whom should be with Alomar at Cooperstown, were only part-timers at the second sack after 35. Ryne Sandberg's last really good year was at age 32, his last semi-good one at 33, and his first retirement one third of the way into his age-34 year. Rod Carew had more WAR at second, but moved to first at age 30. Frank Frisch's last good season was at age 33, and last decent one at 36. Plus, between days off and time at third base, he was a 3/4 time second baseman by 33.

Even the cream of the cream in the Hall aren't all immune. Rogers Hornsby hit the wall at the end of his age-35 season. Nap Lajoie had a terrific year at 35, but was a two-thirds time player after that.

Eddie Collins, Joe Morgan and Charlie Gehringer are the only seeming exceptions. And, then, only by a couple of years. Collins was down to two-thirds time after age 37. Gehringer retired after a partial-play season at age 38. Morgan is the greatest outlier. After an injury-shortened age-37 year, he played through his age-40 year with more than 500 plate appearances at age 38 and 39, as a 2B.

And, Cano's slightly older contemporary, Chase Utley, has had noticeable slipping himself.

One could claim Craig Biggio as an exception, but he didn't move there until age 26. And, though he didn't totally lose his bat, he was a negative defender for most of his plus-30 seasons.

Cano is only 32, but it's 32 with a lot of mileage.

He's already No. 30 in career games played at second. He's an even higher No. 25 at career double plays by a second baseman. And of course, takeout slides by runners coming from first on potential double plays are a large part of that position's wear and tear.

How much does all of this play into what seems to be a major fielding slump this year, per Fangraphs? And, how much does it play into his batting slump? Or Utley's, for that matter?

A fair amount, I'd say. And, contra people who say short is as tough as second? I beg to disagree.

Above all, on double play attempts, you're facing straight down the runner from first. You can see the angle of a potential takeout slide, and you don't have to worry about making a pivot.

Second, Ozzie Smith, Derek Jeter, and Barry Larkin are among HOF shortstops who played semi-regularly, even regularly, to near 40 or beyond. From the classic past, Honus Wagner did past age 40. Luis Aparicio had a full season at short at 39. In the non-HOF division, Omar Vizquel had a full season at short at age 40.

#Sabermetrics: The Pujols advantage over other big boppers at first base

When Miguel Cabrera signed his big new contract with Detroit earlier this year, the response of this blogger and many pro sports writers was: Too long. Specifically, we generally cited the similar contract of Albert Pujols.

There's two other first basemen of roughly the same age to throw into this mix. That's Prince Fielder, traded from Detroit to Texas to let Miggy move from third to first, and Ryan Howard.

But, there's one difference between them.

Pujols is a plus fielder at first; none of the others are. In fact, none of them are close.

A friend of mine scoffed when I called Pujols a plus fielder, but the record doesn't lie. First, there's the two Gold Gloves — and four Fielding Bible awards. But, let's move beyond that into sabermetrics, since FB uses them much more than GG traditionally has.

The basics? Prince Albert has a career total (which includes a few OF and 3B games) of 134 fielding runs. And he has a career positive of 1.9 dWAR. 

For reference, the fielding and mustache god of modern first basemen, Keith Hernandez, has only, yes, only, 117 fielding runs and 0.6 career dWAR.

Now, to the others.

Howard's long been regarded as a statue, and stats don't lie. He weighs in with -46 fielding runs and -12.4 dWAR for his career.

Fielder? A couple of years ago, a lot of allegedly sabermetrically informed writers and bloggers talked about when he'd lose his range at first. I got news for you all — he never had it. At -93 fielding runs and -17.8 dWAR, he's worse than Howard. He's had a slightly longer career, but not that much longer. In other words, on average, each has cost his team a little more than a full point of dWAR, and around 7-10 fielding runs, per year.

Miggy, actually, comes off as relatively not so bad. At -77 fielding runs and -12.0 dWAR, in a career longer than Fielder's, let alone Howard's, and noting that most of this was at third not first, perhaps some of us have been a bit hard on him? 

Actually, no. His first couple of years at 3B in Miami weren't too bad, but he soon looked like crap. Detroit, let us not forget, quickly moved him to first after trading for him, before getting the even more immobile Fielder.

(All Baseball-Reference stats are for all positions for those playing multiple spots.)

Just to dip to Fangraphs, on a cross check, on total zone runs and ultimate zone rating per 150 defensive games.
Hernandez: 121/(no UZR)
Pujols: 96/6.2
Cabrera: -7/-2.0
Fielder: -38/-5.5
Howard: 14/-3.4 (really)
All Fangraphs numbers are for first base only. 

I did not include Joey Votto in any comparisons, for two reasons.

First, he's got an even shorter MLB career to date. Second, he doesn't have the "statue" reputation.

Sidebar: this shows that "we" still have a ways to go in advanced defensive metrics. While Baseball-Reference is my go-to for stats, and I generally rate it over Fangraphs, Fangraphs has its value. This isn't the first time the two have differed a lot on defensive issues. I don't really believe Fangraphs on Howard; on the other hand, I don't totally believe B-R that Pujols is in the same league as Hernandez. On the third hand, B-R's advanced fielding says that Prince Albert has just six fewer ground ball double plays initiated than does the Merry Mex. For comparison, Howard has about 80 fewer and Fielder about 75 fewer, so, maybe B-R shouldn't be doubted quite so much as I think.

Anyway, given all that I wrote above, on fielding, it makes me wonder if Prince Albert hasn't even been underappreciated in some way.

Anyway, moving on ...

Future realities?

Cabrera could go to DH as early as next year, if the Tigers don't resign Victor Martinez, or land another DH-first person. That, in turn probably depends on other things, starting with whether or not they resign Max Scherzer.

Fielder? Mitch Moreland's at DH now, and hits arbitration next year. He could be traded, or not. Why he's not the primary 1B in Arlington now, I have no idea other than two words: "Ron Washington." Of course, we know what he thinks about sabermetrics.

Howard? He should be traded to an AL team, but no trades out of Philly (sorry, Cliff Lee) are happening until Ruben Amaro is finally fired. That said, given that Howard refuses to adjust a lot, he's not that good of trade bait, except to AL teams with a short right field. Calling the Steinbrenner brothers!

Pujols? He's still a plus fielder. He's said he'll take a day here and there of being "spotted" at DH, but, as long as he's an even fielder, as well as a plus fielder (he started a 3-6-3 double play recently) why would you do anything but keep him at first? This is also part of why on overall WAR, and even more WAA, he's a cut above Cabrera and at least that much above the others.

It's also an advantage to the team. If you have someone who's still bringing this level of power and who can at the same time make a positive contribution with the glove or, at minimum, even a few years down the road, not make a negative one, it gives you more lineup flexibility.

Speaking of adjustments, most of Pujols' early home runs have been on high strikes. Whether he's guessing well, has lost a few pounds (it looks possible), has gone to a lighter bat, or is quicker on turning on the ball without the fasciitis, or some combination of the above, I don't know. But something's happened.

This all also shows that, even if Pujols' contract still turns out to be a long-term overpay, and even if 1B is not a defense-first position, it's still going to be much less of an overpay than Cabrera's new one, or even Fielder's current one, in all likelihood; that said, Fielder being younger helps a bit. Howard? We already know the truth about his albatross; the Phillies are just lucky on its shorter length.

And, let's not forget that, with passing the 500-HR mark, he's probably more likely to pass 600 than most the others on this list are to pass 500. 

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Welcome, visitors from Fangraphs and elsewhere. See some of my other recent baseball blogging, including my touting of a new Kozma Line as a sabermetric replacement for the old Mendoza line and, with the century mark at Wrigley, my take on Babe Ruth's called shot.

Tigers overpay for Miguel Cabrera at an Albert Pujols and A-Rod level

Speaking of that, congrats to Miguel Cabrera and his agent, firm SFX. With a 10-year contract worth nearly $30M per year (and, with two vesting years, I'm counting this as a likely 10-year contract AFTER the buyout of the two years remaining on his current/old contract1), he's now officially passed Alex Rodriguez in the payroll pantheon.

And, per the "Insider" head-scratchers on the sidebar of the ESPN piece, yes, Dave Dombrowski, you've joined Hank Steinbrenner and Arte Moreno, on the Albert Pujols contract, as "biggest bonehead overpay."

Let's look at it the way I laid it out. I've not seen details of the vesting options, but, given how dumb this was in general, I'm assuming they are player-friendly, and my general scenario holds.

The new contract starts when he's 33. That's one year older than when Pujols was at the start of his current deal and also one year older than A-Rod was at his 2008 extension. Miggy's less of a fielder, even at first, than Pujols. Certainly less in the field than A-Rod was at the start of his contract, and arguably less than A-Rod was at the time of his extension. Even without the two vesting years, this would be an overpay. With them, it's a massive one.

As for the Tigers? I was willing to consider that Dombrowski was still a smart GM after the Doug Fister trade, and definitely after he refused to meet Scott Boras' price on a Max Scherzer extension. No longer. Trading Prince Fielder to save and free up money, then blow it like this?

Per this Twitter pic, unless Miggy has the Honus Wagner, or Mel Ott, or even Frank Robinson fountain of youth somewhere, it's a huge overpay. Not just an overpay, but a huge overpay. And, I doubt it. Wagner and Robinson were both known for defense, one indication of why they aged better. Ott was playing his older years against undrafted "leftovers" during WWII. (Related: This Dave Cameron piece at Fangraphs.)

And, speaking of, Pujols can probably still log at least three more years as a first baseman first without any serious defensive loss. By the time he's 36, Miggy will almost surely have to be installed as a DH first.

Plus, per this blog, what if Miggy pulls another David Freese move behind the wheel? He's been sober a few years, but, still ...

1 — Update: Dombrowski says each of the two additional years vests only if Miggy is in the top 10 in the previous year's MVP voting. So, given Pujols' and A-Rod's track records, it may turn out to only be eight years after the two "eaten" years of Cabrera's old contract have passed.

That said, I still think this is a bad contract. Another reason why? Jon Heyman likes it.