The yen of Yang

Ain't what it used to be. In a no-brainer, even for a brainwashed Yahoo board, CEO Jerry Yang has been given the boot.

So, is Microsoft interested again? Actually, I'll take Steve Ballmer pretty much at his word and say, "perhaps."

First, the poison pill on layoffs that Yang got passed will have to go bye-bye. Yahoo won't get more than a seat or two on an enlarged Microsoft board. And, Yahoo will have to accept that Microslob will jettison parts of the company to satisfy regulators, too.

I figured Jerry Yang and Yahoo had 60 days

That is, 60 days until shareholder tempers reached boiling point, if Yang hasn’t done enough to raise the value of Yahoo stock beyond the $33 a share Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer offered.

Well that was before I knew that Yahoo’s annual meeting is July 3.

Before then, say, by Memorial Day, we should know just what Yang can pull off.

Probably, not much. I think he’s still self-delusional about Yahoo’s value.

For instance, after he inched Yahoo’s stance down to $37 a share, he says he expected Ballmer to counteroffer. But, as the story notes, Yahoo hadn’t hit $33, let alone $37, in more than two years.

“The company is doing better than three months ago,” Yang said Monday. “I think in many ways this (takeover threat) has been good for us. We still have a lot of work to do to demonstrate that we can be successful, and I am focused on that.”

But Yang’s credibility has been undermined by Yahoo's repeated forecasts of better times ahead while its profits steadily eroded during the past two years.

“We are not willing to give (Yahoo) the benefit of the doubt that they can make meaningful improvement over the next three years,” UBS analysts Benjamin Schachter, Heather Bellini and Abhey Lamba wrote in a joint research note.

Well, Yang and Yahoo don’t have three years.

Beyond that, two pension funds have already sued Yahoo, and are amending their suits in light of Ballmer’s higher offer being rejected.

I give Yang no more than a 50-50 chance of surviving the July 3 meeting.