SocraticGadfly: bin Laden (Osama)
Showing posts with label bin Laden (Osama). Show all posts
Showing posts with label bin Laden (Osama). Show all posts

October 06, 2023

Looking closely at Sy Hersh's nuttery on Osama bin Laden.

And, nuttery it is, not only as a conspiracy theory, but Hersh's apparent first ax-grinding against the Navy Seals, as I noted when first discussing his Nord Stream nuttery, or even more, the second piece about his ax-grinding. This is a prequel to another piece about Sy coming up. The original wound up being too long, and so is split.

In reality, the Seals that Sy seems to hate are likely saboteurs without all the cloak-and-dagger overhead that Hersh painted. I mean, look at how smoothly, overall, the bin Laden raid went. So smoothly that Sy had to paint a line of BS on that one, too. And that, in turn, ties back to his ax-grinding.

Let's look at that more.

To be blunt, it's conspiracy-theory mongering. Hersh claims:
The White House’s story might have been written by Lewis Carroll: would bin Laden, target of a massive international manhunt, really decide that a resort town forty miles from Islamabad would be the safest place to live and command al-Qaida’s operations? He was hiding in the open.
That this mission, as portrayed, didn't actually happen. At the same time, he claims it did happen as portrayed, only that bin Laden was an Inter-Services Intelligence prisoner.

Hersh never explains how bin Laden was arrested, in this case. Nor why the ISI arrested him, yet put him in Abbotabad. He does offer a "why" on his arrest, but is it plausible? The Taliban existed before bin Laden and al Qaeda relocated to Afghanistan. If push came to shove, they might "walk" on him. From there, like the typical conspiracy, Hersh cuts himself while trying to shave with something other than Ockham's Razor.

The biggest ridiculousness is that this much manpower would have been wasted on a mission if it were just kill-and-destroy. I mean, this IS Dear Leader, the man who had already drone-killed an American citizen, Anwar al-Awlaki.

Once should also note that this piece, just like Sy's Nord Stream piece, relies not on anonymous sourceS but source, singular. Per the link at top, yeah, Sy's track record isn't good in a lot of things. And, in things like the Seth Rich conspiracy theory, he's been willing enough, even gullible enough, to stick himself on a limb that can easily be sawn off.

And, specific to this story, with lone-source reliance, we also seem to have something else similar to Nord Stream. "Dirty" intelligence, with enough chaff in it to leave Hersh open for undermining once he publishes.

August 25, 2021

My thoughts on the withdrawal from Afghanistan

A good starting point is last Friday's "Roaming Charges" scattershooting column by Counterpunch's Jeff St. Clair. A few takeaways.

First, for L/libertarians now fellating Ron Paul? St. Clair reminds us that Paul voted FOR the Authorization to Use Military Force. Oops!

Second, for the Berners, while he opposed invading Iraq from the start, he supported invading Afghanistan from the start.

Third, we're reminded that the late drunken Snitchens, aka Christopher Hitchens, enthusiastically supported both wars from the start.

Now, me.

I supported the invasion at the start. But not with huge enthusiasm, and with caveats, the second of which I publicly spoke about in a newspaper column.

Had I known at the time about the Taliban willing to (allegedly, but hold that thought) talk about expelling al-Qaeda, and maybe even handing over Osama bin Laden, I wouldn't have supported the war.

OK, more on the "hold that thought." We now know that the Taliban was ... "talking turkey." We still don't know how sincere they were, what details they had attached to an expulsion, let alone a handover, and whether those details were unacceptable not only to the Bill Clinton-Democratic foreign policy establishment, let alone the more neocon Bush-Republican foreign policy establishment, but to people outside the foreign policy establishment box, as I was just starting to become at that time. There might have been real and legitimate sticking points. Or, the Taliban might have been stalling. I am not saying either WAS the case; I am saying either COULD HAVE BEEN the case. I've called out Howie Hawkins, Margaret Flowers and the late Kevin Zeese for playing twosiderism with Xi Jinping; we don't need twosiderism with the Taliban, either. (That said, the Taliban offered a deal again after the war started. Part of that was an amnesty request for then; in our hubris, we said no. That piece also makes the no-brainer observation that we could have left after nailing bin Laden's hide to the wall.)

Update: Here's another good big picture timeline of US involvement. That said, from all we know from stuff like this, Counterpunch's claim, via an Afghan informant, that the Taliban was ready to hand over bin Laden pre-9/11, with few strings attached, seems ... uh, not likely. And, Mohabbit may have had some axes to grind. In addition, the interview was by Alex Cockburn, who may have been committing one of the two sins that led me to de-blogroll Counterpunch for a number of years. That sin? It's the same as today's allegedly outside the box stenos like Max Blumenthal and Aaron Maté — a reflexive anti-Americanism that engages in twosiderism and says that everything the bipartisan foreign policy establishment gets wrong must therefore be right. (Xi Jinping and the Uyghurs is today's obvious example, whether seemingly a sincere belief from the likes of Aaron, or presumable grift/PR flak from the likes of Max.) 

Sidebar: Alex's other sin was, IMO, pushing the envelope of anti-Zionism into antisemitism. Now, my knowledge of how much and how readily the cudgel of conflating these two is used by Zionists has grown a lot since then. But .... within leftism and left-liberalism, other people raised an eyebrow at times about him.

Second, had I known at the time what eventually became evident, that even as the Afghanistan invasion was being launched, Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld planned a "pivot" to Iraq, which meant scraping up a thin global coalition of troops plus not always reliable Afghan allies to supplement the thin American troops that wouldn't be augmented, I wouldn't have supported the war.

Per what St. Clair says much later in the piece, any idiot is capable of knowing that the vaunted "boots on the ground" are needed for actual occupation; bombs don't occupy anything. And, under "lessons not learned from Vietnam," the U.S. military still over-values bombing. 

A second good read is from John Pilger, who reminds us that we're reaping what we sowed with our coup in the late 1970s after the overthrow of King Zahir Shah. Behind the US-backed coup? Zbigniew Brzezinski, the biggest Darth Vader of US foreign policy this side of Kissinger. More here on Carter-era meddling, and picking the wrong side when we did. And, more yet on how Carter also intervened in an inter-Yemen war when there were two of them, also prompted in part by Zbig. (Blue Anon leaders like Josh Marshall don't want to go back this far.)

Nor, per one tweet of a Friday thread of mine about this issue, do we need conspiracy theories.

First, for my thoughts on conspiracy theories vs. actual conspiracies in general, go here.

Second, in general, one factor on conspiracy theories vs. actual conspiracies is a, roughly, 20-year lifespan for evidence. If actual evidence supporting a theory doesn't pop up within 20 years, it almost certainly never will, and we can increase our assuredness that it is a conspiracy theory, not a conspiracy.

Take the late 1970s House Select Committee on  Assassinations. It found no major new evidence about JFK, RFK or MLK assassinations, and certainly nothing that would support actual conspiracy.

With that in mind, we're approaching the 20-year mark on Pat Tillman. I've seen nothing new to convince me, or even come close to convincing me, he was fragged. If he had been, surely somebody would have leaked a discussion by now.

His planned meeting with Noam Chomsky? Maybe known to a few military friends, but almost certainly NOT to high brass. And, in any case, we don't know exactly what Tillman planned to talk about.

How close the range was when he was shot? Well, even in modern war, sadly, the "fog of war" is real. 

==

Back to St. Clair, and other things.

Jeff wonders, of the many Afghan interpreters we're trying to fly out, how many participated in translations of torture sessions. To further his thought, how many deliberately misinterpreted them, just like some of our informants who were settling old grudges?

Didn't the neocons "own themselves" on this war 40 years ago?

If the Mujahideen were the “moral equivalent of the founding fathers” of Afghanistan, as some in the Reagan years proclaimed, then the Taliban must be the Afghan version of the Federalist Society, intent on enforcing an originalist interpretation of Sharia Law. The Taliban session at the next CPAC will be must-see streaming.

Yes.

St. Clair mentions Ted Rall. His infamous "sap and sucker" cartoon, with words like that on the white crosses of a U.S. military cemetery, looks even more disgusting with nearly 20 years of hindsight. AFAIK, Rall never discussed the economic necessity that drove many people into military enlistment in our all-volunteer army, despite being an alleged leftist-leaner of some sort.

==

Biden did fuck up the Afghanistan withdrawal, starting from the premise that he should have known Trump's original withdrawal timetable and plan had no actual plan. Nonetheless, we needed to withdraw and it was right. Why doesn't the MSM interview people like me, Popular Info asks. Besides, we knew a whole decade ago how corrupt Afghan officialdom was, Mondoweiss reports.

==

Beyond rejecting Pat Tillman conspiracy theories, I also reject those by Craig Unger, Michael Moore et al that Afghanistan was "all about the oil," or "oil pipelines," or whatever. Yes, US goverments and US and multinational companies had held talks about pipelines — and even more, discussed possible mining for heavy metals — in years before the invasion, but the relative lack of troops, even in the early days, puts the kibosh to that idea being serious as well. And, since the invasion, other ways to move oil from Central Asia have been developed. Besides, on the pipeline issue, Afghanistan's largely mountainous terrain says that's not realistic, not for major pipelines.

Yeah, the idea sounded tempting about 2003 or so. That's why Moore's problematic movie was such a hit with the people who are today's #BlueAnon. But, while Moore is a great polemicist, and a great auteur, he's not always so great with command of facts.

March 07, 2012

How much 'protection' is Bush giving Saudis?

That's the bottom-line thesis of Anthony Summers' great new book, "The Eleventh Hour." It's not as in depth as Lawrence Wright on what led up to 9/11, but it takes a good look at the 9/11 Commission, its report, and what it did and did not look at. That includes asking why the final chapter of the commission's report is almost totally censored.

From my Goodreads review:

The Eleventh Day: The Full Story of 9/11 and Osama bin LadenThe Eleventh Day: The Full Story of 9/11 and Osama bin Laden by Anthony Summers

My rating: 5 of 5 stars


Seeing Anthony Summers as co-author (along with his wife) made me both excited and a bit apprehensive about this new book overviewing 9/11. Summers has done great work on Nixon, but in his “The File on the Tsar” he gave credence to conspiracy ideas, claiming that at least Anastasia, if not other daughters of Nicholas II, escaped the cellar in Ekarterinberg.

Well, I was pleasantly relieved early on. Quite so.

Summers quickly dismisses conspiracy theories about the attacks, focusing above all on the Twin Towers. On the engineering side, he refers to the authoritative NIST report. On the common-sense side, he raises the rhetorical question of how could saboteurs plant thousands of pounds of C4 or whatever inside the Twin Towers and never be caught?

The middle 50 percent of the book gives an overview of how al Qaeda came to plot this. Not too much new here, primarily a good tying together of time line issue. But, he does note one thing in conjunction with the CIA’s quasi-criminal laxness on reporting would-be 9/11 hijackers to the FBI. (Plenty on that, a fair amount of the FBI’s bad-enough laxness.)

Reportedly, the CIA may have been trying to “turn” two of the eventual hijackers in an attempt to “penetrate” al Qaeda. Oops! Beyond that, some people claim that Saudi intelligence may have been using the same duo as a go-between, to try to “control” bin Laden.

Summers thinks that of little credence. But the general idea of how much Saudis, including royals, were connected to bin Laden, before, during and after 9/11? Different story.

The final quarter of the book uses as its starting point the fact that the whole final chapter of the 9/11 Commission’s report is still censored/redacted. Why?

Summers speculates, and has a few facts to offer. The censor is George W. Bush himself; he’s acting to protect those Saudi royals. And, there’s strands of evidence to indicate they were individually funneling money to bin Laden, and staying in some sort of contact with al Qaeda members, before 9/11, close to 9/11, and possibly even afterward.

I won’t give details of that; no need for too much spoiler alert. But … read!




View all my reviews

May 14, 2011

Huckabee says ...

Ted Nugent is running for president of the United States.

Nugent said he trained the Navy SEALs who took out Osama bin Laden to use deer-hunting crossbows to kill the al-Qaeda leader and that's why President Obama is hiding the Osama photos.

Donald Trump then immediately popped on Huck's show and said HE had killed bin Laden ... with his Trump-over hair.

May 10, 2011

Bin Laden's death boosted economic confidence??

Well, SOMETHING in the last week-plus caused this huge uptick in Americans' economic confidence.

If it was killing bin Laden, that says a lot of different things about average American mentality. I'll leave you the reader to fill in the blanks.

May 06, 2011

The "deather" conspiracy widens!

Even al-Qaeda is in on it!

I am sooooo waiting for deathers to spin this one.

Also, I am kind of curious about bin Laden's final tape message.

May 02, 2011

Bin Laden death and torture

Update, May 3: Unfortunately, any "debate" over Osama bin Laden's death and the value of torture has been clusterfucked by reporting by the AP and other MSM that give the appearance Khalid Sheikh Mohammed revealed the name of Osama bin Laden's courier under torture.

Rather, as Andrew Sullivan and Marcy Wheeler report, that's totally false.

Whether the reportorial problem lies more with the AP et al, or with confusing/bad early info from Team Obama, I'm not sure. But, we have this "meme" now out there which is ultimately irrelevant. — End update

So, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was a lead, if not the only one, to the lead that led to the Osama bin Laden assault that lead to his death. (And, per the NYT, which just says "Guantanamo detainees," there may have been several leads.)

The McClatchy story is right — this will reignite the debate over torture. (That said, when did McClatchy go "soft" and stop using that word?)

First, KSM could have given out inaccurate blather here just like he did with other things.

Second, at the time he named this courier, that person may not have been so close to bin Laden as he became in later years.

Third, the "right" result doesn't make a wrong action right anyway.

The larger civil liberties fallout of the hunt for bin Laden? Here is a good laundry list.

September 11, 2008

Bush: Ain’t my fault bin Laden got away

I’m only human, Prez claims

Giving credence to a new theory, namely that if one Republican woman lies, it’s open season for all GOPers of the “fair sex,” Dana Perino uncorks the latest White House whopper.
“This is not the movies. We don't have super powers,” said White House press secretary Dana Perino. “But what we do have is very dedicated people who are working with our allies and trying to bring (al-Qaida leaders) to justice.”

Would those “very dedicated people” include the Afghan tribesmen Bush and Tommy Effing Franks expected would seal the perimeter at Tora Bora?

Meanwhile, in the ongoing hunt for Osama, it looks like the What-a-gon plans on using more Predator drones.

That’s not a new strategy as much as it is an admission of failure of the old one. And, it might be no more likely to succeed.
Pakistani officials said the CIA and the U.S. military have played into bin Laden's hands by pursuing al-Qaeda with bombs and missiles. Pashtun tribes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, angry at the number of civilian casualties, see the United States as the enemy, the officials said. Despite a $25 million reward posted by the U.S. government, no one has been willing to turn in the al-Qaeda leader.

“Unless you have people who support you, human intelligence will never work,” said Ali Muhammad Jan Aurakzai, a retired Pakistani general who oversaw efforts to track bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders after 2001. “You have to have friendly people.”

At the same time, bureaucratic infighting between Pentagon and CIA has been an ongoing issue.

Read the whole story. It’s a pretty damning indictment of the BushCo clusterfuck in Afghanistan.

To add to the scariness, it’s now being reported that in July, Bush authorized cross-border excursions into Pakistan without Islamabad’s approval.

Well, that’s just wunderbar.

In international law, I think that’s called invading a sovereign nation.

July 15, 2008

Juan Cole — Obama either idiot or Just.Another.Politician.™ on Afghanistan

Juan Cole tells Obama to get real about the idiotic idea of putting more troops in Afghanistan.

Shorter Cole:
1. We know bin Laden et al regularly cross the border into Pakistan.
2. We know Pakistan will not let us pursue
3. Ergo, we’re not going to capture bin Laden, destroy al Qaeda, etc.
4. And, don’t forget the Soviet experience.

March 05, 2008

Afghanistan, al-Qaida and 9/11 — Ted Rall has a slightly different take

Rall this week gives his clearest enunciation to his thesis that Osama bin Laden did NOT orchestrate the 9/11 attacks.

Well, who, then? Is Rall a conspiracy theorist?

The answer to the second question is no. Rall doesn’t believe George W. Bush or Mossad orchestrated the attacks. He does finger Muslim radicals.

Only, he points the finger at the Egyptian-originated Islamic Jihad, not al-Qaida. Now, that said, Islamic Jihad was founded by bin Laden right-hand man Ayman al-Zawahiri, and in June 2001, Zawahiri officially merged it with al-Qaida.

So, if I’m reading Rall correctly, he’s arguing that Zawahiri had at least started this operation before the merger, and that he kept independent control of it afterward, to the degree he still had any hands on the operation in those last three months.

I think Ted is hair-splitting a bit here. Zawahiri and bin Laden were together long before the formal merger of their organizations. Even if bin Laden didn’t start the idea, he certainly was involved. That said, after the merger, Islamic Jihad controlled six of nine seats on the combined entities’ “board of directors.”

Anyway, this is a sidebar to Rall’s belief that we, contrary to Democrats who still want one war, shouldn’t be in Iraq OR Afghanistan.

First, as he notes, if we want(ed) bin Laden, well, he was almost certainly in Pakistan, not Afghanistan, on 9/11. There, he’s right. And, considering that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence had built up the Taliban hosts of al-Qaida and Islamic Jihad for years, we should have done more with Pakistan. Rather than warn Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to play ball with us, if we had any CIA capability, we probably should have looked at overthrowing him. At the least, we should have told him we would blockade the country if he didn’t seal his border against Afghanistan, and hand over bin Laden ASAP.

Anyway, back to Rall’s take on Afghanistan. He says that since Afghan President Hamid Karzai only controls about 15 percent of the country, even less than the official U.S. estimate of 30 percent, we’d be pounding sand down a rathole to follow up on Barack Obama’s “mini-surge” idea of sending 3,000-8,000 more troops to Afghanistan. Beyond the strategic issues are the social and natural geography ones: Afghanistan’s population is about 20 percent larger than Iraq’s and its land area about 50 percent greater.

November 07, 2006

Why no bin Laden pre-election tape?

Here’s my speculation.

First, as his 2004 pre-election activity shows, Osama bin Laden is not uninformed about the U.S. electoral process.

So, he must believe he has better reasons to “favor nobody” than to come out with a video that clearly favors Bush. (This is assuming that he either hasn’t seen the Republican National Committee’s bin Laden commercial, or he has and thinks it takes the place of a pro-Bush video by him.)

So, if this is the case, why is Osama playing this election neutral?

First, he knows Bush is a lame duck; nothing he can do there.

Second, and point major, he is hoping that a Democratic House provides enough traction to get us to at least start pulling out of Iraq (which we of course need to do), thereby clearing the playing field for more al Qaeda affiliate activity against Shiites there.

Or, as a variation on that, he understands the U.S. system well enough, and Shrub in particular, to see the gridlock of divided government as a godsend.

So, bin Laden had good reason to do nothing, especially once he saw the surge for Democratic Congressional candidates.