Alt-history: Kinky Friedman as Texas Gov

 

Kinky Friedman, who (in)famously, and hilariously, ran for Texas governor in 2006, and who passed away a couple of weeks ago, probably could have had the job if he had serious-ed up at some point.  That said, per that link, years of hindsight later made me realize that, at some point, he thought he might just win, that scared the hell out of him, and refusing to serious up was the antidote.

Texas Monthly offers its thought on what would have happened had he won. It first notes that he shot himself in the foot on at least one occasion when he DID get serious, per his "crackheads and thugs" comment. 

Personally, I thought he had no idea what his constituency was. If he really believed it was the Venn diagram overlap of people who wanted both legal marijuana and organized prayer in public school, it was pretty small.

And, it was pretty weird for a Jew who traded on his Jewishness to want prayer in public schools, but I digress. Back to the Monthly.

Good alt-history only changes one big thing. This changes one moderate serious one, by having state officials rule against Strayhorn Rylander on having "Grandma" as part of her ballot listing. It then moves from alt-history to alt-degeneracy with having Friedman challenge Democrat Chris Bell to a drinking contest to combine their campaigns.

After that, it gets seriously non-serious. And, so, we'll ignore analyzing that laugh track piece and look at reality.

Other than taking up the idea of Rylander not being "Grandma" (and using that to camouflage multiple marriages, too), here's the serious skinny.

It involves Kinky getting serious. Versus the other three, as I noted at the time, he had openings. Beyond that, his schtick wore thin with repetition anyway.

Other than the laugh track, per link No. 3, the first part of getting serious was, per link No. 3, figuring out your constituency. Since Kinky ran later, twice, and as a Democrat both times, that's easy. So, going more serious than the Monthly, we get Kinky to realize that Democrats don't back school prayer. But, would he have? After all, in 2006, some people were pushing him as being to the right of Tricky Ricky.

That said, alt-history also has to have some chance at really happening. Given that Kinky was still supporting prayer and the 10 Commandments in school as late as 2013, and went beyond that on religious intolerance by saying "love Jesus or go to hell," this had about as much chance as Kinky kicking away a rescue dog in Utopia. That second link in the paragraph is an adapted version of a newspaper column I wrote about his campaign. Sadly, per that first link, he almost won the Dem primary for ag secretary in 2010. (Contra Gilberto Hinojosa, skipper of the SS Texas Democratic Minnow, that's another sign of the ongoing weakness of the party statewide.)

Beyond that, the Monthly is laughable in another way. IF Kinky got just serious enough to be elected, by inciting non-Grandma and Tricky Ricky to attack each other even more, by knowing his constituency, and by belittling Bell, there would have been no second term.

First, he had no coattails, so no help in the Lege.

Because of that, the Lege would have dramatically tightened ballot petition signature rules for independent candidates. Kinky as incumbent would have gotten on the ballot again. Nobody else.

Second, the wingers would have co-opted his "five Mexican generals" on the border, or more serious versions of that.

So, the only real alt-history questions are:

1. How little would Kinky have gotten done in his solo term?

2. How badly would he have gotten crushed in 2010?

3. Who would the GOP crusher be?

That last one's the curious one.

In reality, Kay Bailey Cheerleader Hutchison challenged Tricky Ricky in the 2010 primary. Would Perry have been hors de combat after the 2006 loss, or stubborn enough to try again and possibly lose anyway? Would some other non-Bushie GOPer make the run? (In reality, Perry took 51 percent in a three-way primary. Debra Medina, No. 3, was a Tea Party nutbag.) As in, would Strangeabbott have thrust himself forward four years early? Can't see who else it would have been; John Cornyn wasn't leaving the Senate.

In this, we'll say that relative unknown Abbott has to go to a runoff against Hutchison, where he wins. Little else changes in Texas politics.

And, with all of that said, also consider this more of a takedown obit than my original.

Is the Texas economy fixing to implode?

The so-called Texas Miracle, whether under Rick Perry's name or Greg Abbott's, has always been based on two things:

1. Robust oil profits;
2. Lots of cheap immigration.

Well, wingnuts of the Dan Patrick stripe, along with Trump federally, have gnawed away at the second.

And now, the first looks in trouble. (As does the smaller scale Permian-driven "New Mexico miracle"; see end of post for more.)

Non-coronavirus bad news for the Texas economy popped up Friday. Talks between Russia and Saudi Arabia for extending the OPEC+ expanded oil producers agreement broke down, and oil prices tanked along with it. WTI had been below $50/bbl before that, making the great majority of fracking wells in the Permian Basin unprofitable. We're now officially in Ponzi scheme territory, where the only reason companies will drill is fear of losing overvalued leases that cannibalize each other as is, as I've blogged about in recent weeks. Whether it will get as bad as what Aubrey McClendon inflicted on Chesapeake in the gas biz remains to be seen. It's not likely, but it's certainly possible.

And, at end of biz on Friday? West Texas Intermediate was at $42/bbl. And, it got worse over the weekend. The Saudis, after initial indications that they couldn't afford to fight the Russians, started doing so, first with a price splash. By last night, WTI was trading around $30 a barrel. There will be some bounce-back, to be sure. But, no way it gets back above $45 for some time.

And even that isn't likely any time close to soon. Goddam Sachs said oil could drop into the $20s, at least with spot dips, and its prediction is that WTI will remain in the $30s for the rest of the second and third quarters.

“The prognosis for the oil market is even more dire than in November 2014, when such a price war last started, as it comes to a head with the significant collapse in oil demand due to the coronavirus,” the firm added.

In addition, the Dallas Fed has already reported that hiring is flat out in the Permian. And, related to that, that rents have finally flattened.

Russia made clear, per that first link, that it wants this. Remember, the Saudis tried to force such a collapse a few years ago under MBS' pushing, but couldn't pull it off. Russia is less dependent on oil as a somewhat smaller sector of its economy and can take lower oil prices.

Update, Monday evening —

Oh, goodie! We get to read Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar give us some PR spin a passel of lies about the state of the Texas economy:

“The fundamentals of the Texas economy remain strong. The agency is monitoring weakness in financial markets, including commodities and energy markets. We have been tracking revenues carefully since markets began to soften. 

 "Certainly, Texas has exposure if oil prices remain depressed for a sustained period of time, and slowdowns in economic activity related to the COVID-19 outbreak could also be a headwind. We are still only six months into the current budget cycle, however, and it is too early to tell with certainty how current fluctuations will impact long-term economic performance and state revenues."

Yeah, nice try, Glenn. With half the new oil in the Permian actually being halfway to condensate, and between that and increasing water cuts, half the new drilling in the Permian being underwater, this would be a lie even before last Friday. OilPrice.com is predicting a daily surplus of 3 million barrels by the end of the second quarter.

That said, the amount of trouble oil majors as well as oil minors already face over economically unviable fracking says that the Saudis three years or whatever ago actually pulled it off more than they knew. Don't think the Russians don't know that, as well.

There's also the geopolitical angle. As it looks to extend its reach in Syria in particular and the Middle East in general (Yemen, anybody?) Putin wouldn't mind weakening Saudi Aramco, and some of the government it supports, just as much as ExxonMobil. Or it wouldn't mind continuing to help the legitimate government of Venezuela.

The flip side is that nationally, Larry Kudlow has already made murmurings of selective business help in the country's economy as needed. This also, of course, shows that other than in libertarian wet dreams, and the public speaking out of them, that the Platonic idea of capitalism simply doesn't exist.

I guess a silver lining is that a slowdown in drilling, per that second link, will delay Peak Permian by a couple of months. That said, at the fringes of the Permian, reinforcing what I said about companies seeking out marginal drilling, Apache is withdrawing from the Balmorhea area after claiming it had the secret sauce to find deposits in the Alpine formation there.

Another silver lining? This is possibly the best refudiation yet of #TheResistance that claims Trump is and has been colluding with Russia.

Update, March 30: DeSmog Blog now notes that many refineries are likely to be shuttering in weeks ahead. The typical refinery can't cut production below about 65 percent without shutting down whole units. The problem is a complex one, and more complex than in previous hydrocarbon gluts. A number of these refineries are on the Texas Gulf Coast, including one in Baytown that Exxon has already announced it is shutting.

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And, despite Joe Monahan's denialism, the problems (and rightful concern) are spreading to New Mexico. Update: The state has officially banned public gatherings of more than 100 people.

Texas Progressives tackle cheating, missing ballots and the high cost of Texas living (no really)

This outpost of Texas Progressives reminds an in-state wingnut climate denialists that weather isn't climate, that any cold blasts you feel are normal, and that none of the above refutes the fact that we had the hottest decade on global record, with eight of the 10 hottest years on record, and that last year was the second hottest year on global record. (Even nutters at the Daily Mail admit it!)

Texas sports

SocraticGadfly did a non-political double dip on Texas sports, first talking about the glories of Luka Doncic, then noting why he, along with a majority of other non-Houstonians, thinks the cheating Astros got off light.

And, while we're here, from Twitter:

So, a bunch of Texas pro football fans, knowing the Dallas Cowboys haven't been to the Super Bowl in 20 years & might not go 4 another 20, and ditto for the Houston Texans, are out of butt hurt jealousy tweeting "Dallas Texans" & "Houston Oilers"?

Got it.

Go fuck yourself. #GFY

— reallyDonaldTrump 🚩🌻 (@AFCC_Esq) January 19, 2020

Yep, that's about right. (Yes, I know some, per Brains, are trying to claim this was just a riff on the roots of the two teams in the 1962 AFL title game. Lemme see, December 1962 was FIFTY-SEVEN years ago. About 2 percent of Twitter users are old enough to have been alive, let alone old enough to remember, the original game. It's butt-hurt jealousy tweeting, no matter how much of the actual history you can present, if you didn't actually experience it.)

Cort McMurray gets to the heart of the Astros' cheating scandal.


Texas politics

C.D. Hooks talks about "schadengreg" on his refugee rejection, which has since been blocked by a federal court.

Texana

Not quite Duke of Duval County George Parr and Landslide Lyndon, but a ballot box that went missing after a November bond vote in Midland ISD finally resurfaced and has now (finally???) flipped the bond vote to "no." And, really? Midland ISD said it needed not one but TWO new high schools? Why?

Trump's lies about wanting to do something about gun control are more fully exposed now that he is allowing 3D printable gun blueprints back online.

The Observer, after a series of stories on rural hospital closures and other country health problems, asked for reader stories. They got plenty. The solution, as I've said before? A British-style National Health System.

Blacks got less favorable coverage than women from Texas newspapers over protests.


Dallas

D Magazine notes that, while Dallas County DA John Creuzot appears committed to bail reform, the reality on the ground is a hot mess. The piece is a good read about Creuzot's efforts, his department's work on the Amber Guyger case and more. Will OK Jim Schuetze be kind enough to reference that Guyger part?

And, interesting indeed, on the civil justice side. Judge Tonya Barker wants to ramp up instructing civil juries, as part of their deliberation instructions, to work to avoid implicit bias.

Bizzy week for problems in Dallas. Due to environmental concerns and other things, the Byron Nelson is leaving Trinity Forest. The course's co-owner, who got a sweetheart deal from the city to build the course, admitted it wasn't the ideal spot. Nelson ticket sales confirmed that. Of further concern is that, although the city incentives required 25 percent of rounds to be offered to the public, ie, nonmembers, that wasn't actually happening.

The Dallas Observer also notes that the city just took it in the shorts on a First Amendment case re the city's panhandling ordinance.


The Metromess and Helltown ain't cheap

When transportation sprawl, and housing and other costs relative to pay are all factored in, both Dallas and Houston are LESS affordable than New York City. For whatever reason, even though the Metromess and Houston are almost dead even on these costs, Texas Monthly writes its story on the issue only about Houston. (Unless it does the rewrite I suggested.) Related? Contra former Houston mayor Annise Parker's past bragging about how Helltown would eventually pass Chicago? The Windy City is cheaper, per the first link. And that ignores the humidity, skeeters and flooding of Houston, along with the climate change that will exacerbate all. Do we file this under "Rick Perry's Texas Miracle" or "Greg Abbott's Texas Miracle"?

The Dallas Observer DID pick up on the Dallas angle.


Houston

Off the Kuff interviewed three Democratic candidates in HD138: Akilah Bacy, Josh Wallenstein, and Jenifer Pool.

John Coby wraps up the 2019 city of Houston finance reports.

National

Brains offers a wrap on the latest Dem Debate, especially its "she said, he said."

Therese Odell revisits Impeachment Corner.

Miscellaneous

The Great God Pan Is Dead revises its Best Comics of the Decade list.

The Lunch Tray looks at a new effort to eliminate "lunch shaming".

TX Progressives look harder at the Lege while wondering what Strangeabbott will still veto

Gov. Greg Abbott has until June 16 to sign bills, veto them, or let them become law without his signature. Among the things he can do nothing about, short of a special session is the non-law that did not address sunset issues and keep state plumbers' regs in place.

So, the Lege doesn't give a shit about shit, even as a protest of licensed plumbers is reportedly headed to Austin. And with that, here's the Roundup.

The Lege

Justin Miller at the Observer reports that Dennis Bonnen pulled some short-term punches as first-term speaker with an eye on longer-termGOP power, starting with 2020 Census redistricting.  At the same time, Vicky Camarillo notes the Lege refused to spend money to help the Census in its counting, which could cost the state big time. 

Sexual harassment fared poorly in the Lege even as it addressed sexual assault. Details here. 

The Lege joined 18 other states in the newest War on Drugs stupidity, thinking “robotripping” is a threat to our way of life as we know it and banning minors from buying NyQuil.

It also made pipeline protesting a felony.

Better Texas Blog has three Top Fives from the legislative session.

Stephen Young has his own Best and Worst list from the session.

Texana

Rural East Texas has pockets with some of the higher suicide rates in the nation. The Observer has details. Although it’s not part of the West, it mirrors in some degree the West’s sociological profile — and that area leads the nation in suicides, especially of older white men. 

Trump’s new tariffs on Mexico could seriously ding the Texas economy.

SocraticGadfly looked at a key period of early Anglo-Texas history to discuss how much of northern Mexico President Polk wanted, when and why, and connected this to the Compromise of 1850.

Off the Kuff was all over the reports of Republican Census rigging that emerged from the computer files of a deceased redistricting guru.

Benjamin Collinger warns that exposure to lead-based paint is still a big health risk for children.

Sunland Park, New Mexico, sadly caved to Kris Kobach et al on a privately built strip of border wall.

Royce West continues to "do his due diligence" about running in the Dem primary to face John Cornyn. Royce is taking about as long to shit or get off the pot on this decision as Joaquin Castro, and having lived in his state senate district most the previous decade, say he'll probably get off the pot. He's got too much of a black eye potential from old Dallas Inland Port shenanigans, as both I and Jim Schutze know. He also was MIA on some south Dallas development issues next to his beloved UNT-Dallas. Beyond that, he and former Houston black state senate peer Rodney Ellis both have taken powders in the past on statewide runs. Read everything with my Royce West tag for more.

Houston

David Bruce Collins documents the newest implosion of the Harris County Green Party. 

Dallas area

Stephen Young documents that the old Dallas business coalition still considers itself in the business of mayor-picking. D Magazine also got the secret recording, and also blasts the Dallas old guard for untruthfulness.  In a related matter, Jim Schutze tells Dallasites to vote for Scott Griggs because that's a vote against the Morning Snooze; Schutze shows how its op-eds have actually gone backwards under its current op-ed head.

(Please, activist investors, force Belo to privatize this POS, and put up a higher paywall for the online version so that few people other than that Dallas Old Guard read it.)

Young also gets emails about his piece about the city of Dallas' old Confederate statues. Great laughs.

Jim Schutze takes the Catholic Diocese of Dallas to the woodshed over its response to a Dallas PD raid for material related to allegedly child-abusing priests and kicks it hard in the ass. 

National

Iowans have more opportunities than ever to get sick of Robert Francis O’Rourke.

Rick Perry's back pain meds must be acting up, as the Department of Energy talks about "molecules of freedom." Juanita weighs in, getting high on Freedom Gas.

Brains has a Dems 2020 update, with a climate change scorecard.

Mean Green Cougar Red touts the virtues of less-visited countries.

Sarah Martinez reports on a fake Buc-ee's spotted in the country of Jordan.

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Sneak peek at next week's Roundup: We'll have an update on what Strangeabbott has sined and what he has made die on bills the Lege passed, a look at not-so-progressive librul Supreme Court justices and more. Last week's issue is here.

#IronyAlert: Tricky Ricky Perry benefits from the First Amendment

Texas' Third Court of Appeals has said that one of the two criminal charges facing former Gov. Rick Perry over his threats to veto funding for the Public Integrity Unit out of Travis County unless Travis DA Rosemary Lehmberg resigned is unconstitutional.

The court ruled that Texas' coercion of a public servant statute is an unconstitutional limit on a public official's free speech, and therefore that count is dropped.

The state district court that originally heard Team Perry's appeal of the charges had said the statute was constitutional. Special prosecutor Michael McCrum has not yet indicated if he will appeal. And, given that a constitutional issue is involved, if both parties are ready to appeal all the way out, this could eventually land in federal court.

I'm unsure on this ... per this NPR story, Perry at least pushed the edge, but, courts likely do see free-speech concerns, and, on the political side, separation-of-powers issues.

If this holds up, that leaves Perry facing just one misdemeanor, and it's hard to see how McCrum is going to make that stick, because that's largely dependent on the line of reasoning that led to the felony, which was originally two charges.

Friend Perry has more thoughts on the political background and ramifications.

There is no #MissCongeniality in this GOP contest

The Dallas Morning News notes that, with less than three weeks left until the first GOP presidential debate, scheduled for Aug. 6 in Cleveland and limited to the 10 candidates riding highest in a consortium of five polls, several people are fixing to be on the outside staring in.

Among those? Since Rick Perry couldn't correctly count to 3 three years ago, it's not much surprise he can't count above 10 now; he is on the border of the cut. Rick Santorum's polling isn't a frothy enough mix. Bobby Jindal can't get enough potential Republican voters to play Jenga with him. John Kasich, not officially in the race until today, of course isn't officially in the polling. Carly Fiorina is no more popular than she was with Hewlett-Packard. And, George Pataki hasn't yet climbed above the level of one of Alphonse D'Amato's potholes.

How's THAT for snark?

Oh, and Huckleberry J. Butchmeup isn't butch enough for voters. Don't forget that.

Well, no, that's not enough snark.

Given that the Faux News debate rules say candidates must meet all constitutional requirements to be president, any chance we get some Ted Cruz birthers popping up? We could only hope.

TX Progressives tackle ethics, racism, Perry, Clinton, voting

The Texas Progressive Alliance is happy there's no hint of any special sessions to come as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff notes that while Travis County is ready for the Supreme Court to legalize same-sex marriage, there's likely to be no small amount of chaos in the state once they do.

Letters from Texas explains how a recent ruling in a North Carolina redistricting case may bode well for Texas' plaintiffs.

LightSeeker at Texas Kaos calls "ethics reform" in Texas for what it is.  Government is for, by and of the highest bidder.  Texas leads the pack. Texas Ethical Reform - DOA.

SocraticGadfly, reading about a new study that claims classical psychological conditioning during sleep can reduce racist tendencies, has two thoughts: it's either too good to be true, or, if it has real and lasting change, it's probably got an element of Clockwork Orange.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is glad McAllen ISD and others are taking care to feed children during the summer.

Do you think Greg Abbott's first legislative session as governor was a success or a failure? PDiddie at Brains and Eggs wants to know.

From WCNews at Eye on Williamson, the threat was enough for the clandestine video scheme that may have changed the game on the budget and taxes in 84th Texas Legislature, Timing Is Everything.

Neil at All People Have Value offered a framework about how to live our lives. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

Nonsequiteuse missed the Houston Mayoral Candidates Arts and Culture Forum, but it got her thinking about getting arts organizations out of their silos and engaged as advocates for progressive change.

On her long road seeking the Presidency, one of Hillary Clinton's greatest challenges will be to re-create the infamous Coalition of 2008.  This week at Houston's Texas Southern University, she worked hard to mend some fences, and shared some important views on Voting Rights.


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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Texas Watch celebrated its victories from the legislative session.

Grits can't wait to see if the state's new junk science writ will be interpreted broadly or not.

The Texas Election Law Blog asks if our government is supposed to represent everyone, or just everyone who is allowed to vote.

The Texas Living Waters Project warns of a new environmental danger to the Brazos River.

Molly Cox bemoans low voter turnout in San Antonio.

Keep Austin Wonky explains how percentage-based homestead exemptions help fuel inequality.

Paradise in Hell is not impressed by Rick Perry 2016.

Texans for Public Justice and Public Citizen call Greg Abbott "just plain wrong" on the matter of dark money and disclosure.

Texas Vox managed to find a few small rays of hope from the legislative session.

Equality Texas produced its report card for the 84th Legislature.

ICYMI: Weekly Prez roundup: #BernieSanders, #LincolnChafee, #RickPerry

Last week was a busy one in the world of politics, with two new announced presidential candidates of note and issues about media coverage on one already in the race.

First, is Bernie Sanders getting treated unfairly by the "mainstream media"? In the wake of Columbia Journalism Review, I argue yes. This is of relevance to coverage of third-party candidates, too, whether Green, Libertarian or other.

Second, former GOP governor of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee jumped in the Democratic race to also challenge Hillary from the left.

Yes, you heard that "from the left" correctly and I defend it here. Yes, Chafee once supported Shrub Bush's idea of a partial (note: partial, not full, but still not excusable) privatization of Social Security. Yes, Hillary Clinton opposed that.

That said, she's not that liberal on Social Security herself. Add in that she's a warhawk, a supporter of the national surveillance state, and arguably to the right of Chafee on big and dark money in politics, bank regulation and other things, and I stand behind the argument that he's to her left.

To the right of both of them, and a bigger grandstander and bloviator, is Rick Perry. As I noted, in a piece with extensive links to old blogging about him, his "Texas miracle" is largely a sand castle, he's still under indictment, and he probably has a snowball's chance in the GOP race, among other things.

#RickPerry 2.0 and #RickPerrysTexasMiracle = Kinky Friedman 1.0

Being against Dodd-Frank and attacking big banks in the same breath, as former Texas Gov. Perry did in his presidential campaign announcement, is about like Utopia dogcatcher, novelist, raconteur and independent Texas gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman favoring legalizing pot, on the one hand, and putting public-led prayer in public schools on the other hand.

Both represent pandering at high levels of shamelessness and low levels of artfulness.

As for his alleged economic miracles while governing Tejas? It was about oil and illegal immigration. That's why I said "hasty lumbago" to him when he announced he wasn't running for re-election. Most Republicans, including in Tejas, want to cut the immigration pipeline to zero. The oil part of that? Rick Perry didn't invent fracking, and the Saudis have now found how to undercut it on price.

So, move along, folks. Per the saying in Perry's own Texas?

All hat, no cattle.

And, let's not forget, per the picture, that abuse of power indictment hanging over his head.

A nuttier than normal week in #txlege and #txpolitics

First, my state rep (and state senator, even though this wasn't a bill on the senate side of the aisle yet!) officially declared themselves supporters of pre-emptive unconstitutionality. State Rep. Kyle Kacal, along with State Sen. Brian Birdwell, favored Rep. Cecil Bell's HB 4105, which would pre-emptively bar Texas governmental officials like county judges, justices of the peace, etc., from performing gay weddings, or county clerks, etc., from issuing gay couples marriage licenses, if the Supreme Court rules later this summer, as expected, to legitimize gay marriage across the nation.

Click that link. Besides my own hot take, it's got a link, and the nut grafs of, the Waco Tribune's professional house editorial take on their surly intransigence.

In my mind, this is nothing more than an updated version of George Wallace standing on the steps of the Alabama State Capitol and chanting his famous, or infamous "segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever" statement as part of his 1963 gubernatorial inaugural address.

Beyond that, it’s guaranteed to cost the state of Texas far more in legal fees — both bills and money lost in settlements — than Greg Abbott as attorney general incurred in his generally losing record suing the Obama Administration.

I don’t like every Supreme Court decision myself; “Citizens United” comes immediately to mind, as does a 35-year string of rulings before that which all equate “money” to “speech.” But, I’m not handed a constitutional menu card and told I can pick any two side items I want and discard the rest.

Disgustingly, Bell hasn't accepted this or anything else; even though his bill got chubbed by House Dems, he's still dreaming of attaching it as a rider to something else.

Next, second-term state Sen. Charles Perry got a restraining order from a stripper. While I first noted that the jokes right themselves, further research showed that Cyndi Ortiz has a full decade as a fairly serious campaign donor, and five years as a teaparty activist, leading me to wonder exactly what sort of fire is behind the smoke.

Speaking of jokes writing themselves, Charles' non-relative, former gov. Rick Perry, announced on May 15 that he would announce on June 4 his plans to run for seventh place in the GOP presidential contest. Wife Anita wondered how the whole family could "play a role." I suggested she double, or even quadruple, his back pain meds, then offer the same to other GOP candidates.

Speaking of governors, I suggested Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez as a candidate in 2018. I noted that, at a minimum, she couldn't be worse than the Dems' sacrificial offering in the last five races, and that the might actually have more appeal to groups like Valley Hispanics that don't vote than did any of those folks.

Meanwhile, quality control cheapness, or other issues, have come home to roost in Brenham. Blue Bell is canning nearly 40 percent of workers, and furloughing about the same percentage. I call out the company for letting this happen, and for why it happens. Given that Texas congresscritters are among the leaders in fighting the federal regulatory system, this definitely connects to Texas politics, too.

Rick Perry to announce that ..

He's running for 7th place in what will be a 9-person GOP field after he makes the first of his three announcements on June 4 in Dallas. The second will be on June 5, followed by one planned for June 6 that he will of course forget about and thus have only two actual announcements.

So, that part's snark. Finishing higher than 7th place?

Well, that would put him ahead of Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson.

Going "meta," isn't an announcement of an announcement itself still an announcement?

Otherwise, I got nothing.

And, other than a half-empty bottle of back pain meds, neither does Rick.

Meanwhile, wife Anita is Tweeting out that:

(Gov. Perry and) I have been discussing the future of this great country and how our family can play a role.

I got your answer right here:

How can you "Play a role"? Double, or quadruple, his back pain meds? Then offer the same to the other eight GOP candidates?

Now, I got nothing, and neither do you or the hubster. Order more back pain meds. 

Perry calls Abbott a wingnut over #JadeHelm15; Breitbart alums films #txlege

1. Yep, you read the header for this right. From your pots & kettles dept., Rick Perry is calling Greg Abbott a wingnut over #JadeHelm15. Is somebody running for president? Did Tricky Ricky double down on his back meds?

Congressman Mac Throneberry already questioned Abbott, so Ricky's got a bit of covering fire anyway. Not too much of a branch he's out on.

(That said, in this piece by a Bloomberg writer who doesn't even know Abbott's first name [sigh], the Trickster arguably schwaffles like he's at Perkins.)

Otherwise, if he does officially jump in the race — and he's getting pretty slow with the GOP now up to Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker and Mike Huckabee — he's just got to look more statesmanlike, and less wingnutlike, than most of those folks.

Shit, I could do that in my sleep. Or on Rick Perry's back meds.

And, applied back to Perry is the old phrase: "Takes one to know one."

As far as Tricky Ricky running for Prezzy Wezzy, I think if he's not in by June 30, he's out. I've listed eight candidates above, and haven't even gotten to the (unlikely) Chris Christie, the vapid Donald Trump or others. The oxygen, and the money, are being sucked out of the GOP dance hall.

Question/provocative thought: Why isn't Kory Watkins and Open Carry Tarrant County on the Jade Helm patrol?

2. Speaking of wingnuts, a former apprentice to Breitbart non-documentary filmmaker James O'Keefe has decided to turn the camera not on alleged welfare cheats but on GOP stalwarts, in the possibility they're being wingnut cheats and not the real deal. Joe Basel promises a finished video project. This ought to be fun indeed. Will wingnuts implode, circle the wagons, or what? Will Jonathan Stickland asked to be filmed as a fetus, or what?

Question/provocative thought.

Will Basel start filming Perry next?

3. The Texas Railroad Oil-Loving Commission has promised to hire a second seismologist. But, will commissioners actually listen? It's dragged its heels in the past, but the pressure may be cracking up the ground beneath its feet, all puns intended. And the current semi-agreement still sounds like kind of a head fake.

#SCOTUS on #gaymarriage as teh stupidz burns in the #txlege

First, per SCOTUSBlog, and a hat tip to Perry, I think that a 6-3 decision in favor is possible. Likely? Not as likely as a 5-4 maybe, but more likely than a 5-4 against.

A "tell," on the current reporting, is Justice Kennedy's higher emotional level when asking questions of the plaintiffs (the states where an appellate court said gay marriage should remain illegal) about whether this wasn't disruptive to gay couples with children and other things. (At the same time, this is why Kennedy tilts pro-life, yet I think would oppose any attempt at an outright ban of abortion.)

Otherwise, I think Kennedy, in raising the past history of marriage, was trying to encourage the defendants, gay marriage supporters, to address that issue as part of their narrative. His later questioning showed that what he has elsewhere mentioned as the "dignity" and "sacredness" of marriage is a key issue to him, not the argument for biological procreation.

Meanwhile, in additional current reporting, Nino Scalia must be slipping. In his interrogations today, he never once compared gay marriage to bestiality. Justice Alito at least partially picked up for him by raising polygamy as a red herring.

(Actually, as long as the person already in a marriage informs a potential second or third spouse about said other marriage, I'm OK with that. Make it felony fraud not to do so, and we go from there. Besides, Religious Right, let's not forget that the "Judeo" fig leaf half of your "Judeo-Christian values" was so "down" with polygamy that Jesus' ancestor Jacob married multiple wives, as well as having additional kids by legally recognized concubines. Beyond that, the Judeo was so down with other open marriage ideas that Abraham married his half sister. Good times!)

Roberts, per both those top links above, could indeed "swing," so to speak. Per Perry, he fought against anti-gay discrimination in the workforce and won, on the major Romer case. Per the arguments now, Roberts at a minimum seems to give the Constitution's comity clause — that states should respect each others' laws — a fair amount of weight. If Texas is forced to recognize gay marriages from Illinois, then it's essentially game over anyway.

And, speaking of Texas, our lord high executioners in the Legislature are already seeking to craft various workarounds, at the state level, should the Supremes legalize gay marriage.

Of course, the justices' ruling isn't expected until after the Lege's session ends.

So?

If wingnuts led by Rick Perry called an anti-abortion special session in 2013, you bet wingnuts led by Greg Abbott will consider the same this year. Bank on it. And lawsuits against the feds and more.

After all, Gov. Strangeabbott, despite his alleged fiscal conservative credentials, is our state's chief money waster.

Feb. 2: #HugYourFavoriteSniperDay

Chris Kyle: Large, no longer in charge, and very dead.

At least here in Texass, it is.

Gov. Greg Abbott, two weeks into his new administration as governor of the Great State of Texas Pointy Abandoned Object State™,  has wasted no time in showing that his predecessor, Rick Perry, has nothing to show him in the school of pandering to wingnuts.

Abbott has proclaimed today Chris Kyle Day. Even as, per this piece, many Americans reject the spin on Kyle, and the movie "American Sniper," that wingnuts are trying to foist on us.

So, go out and hug your favorite sniper!

But, why stop there?

Since the wingnuts to whom Abbott is pandering in Texas have other goals and agendas, let's have some more "days" we can have here in Texas, by all means.

March 9: Navy SEAL School Crossing Guard Day. Navy SEALs with untreated PTSD are offered the chance to be school crossing guards, complete with full weaponry. The day is proclaimed in conjunction with legislation making ex-SEALs school security on a trial program basis, just in case some kid brings a gun to school under new open carry laws.

After all, as Chris Kyle's own apotheosis (sic, and sick) shows, it can't be any worse than other gun-related therapy for military veterans with untreated PTSD now, can it?

April 4: SEALs in Huntsville Day. Abbott, deciding to pander for national red state support even out to conservative Utah, signs a pilot program to emulate the pre-1980 Beehive State of Gary Gilmore fame and bring death by firing squad to the Texas state pen. Knowing that Chris Kyle was "the most prolific sniper in history," (stand by, Abbott's got a fact-check phone call in to Guinness Book of World Records), who better for the firing squad for him and his buddies? Especially if they have untreated PTSD, they'll have no moral reservations about executing a man with a sub-70 IQ. Or two. (I do NOT want to hear three and five is very right out.)

May 12: Take a Sniper to a Tea Party Day. Knowing that American snipers, as down to earth, mentally stable, small-town freckle-faced, apple-pie, hot-dog-eating, Chevy-driving next door Americans love nothing more than a small town tea party, Abbott proclaims this day to encourage all patriotic, Texas-loving Tea Partiers to invite their favorite snipers and personally thank them.

August 11: Texas Olympics Day. Because everything is bigger, and badder-ass, in Texas, Abbott announces this day as the kickoff of his plan to petition the International Olympic Committee to make sniping an Olympic sport.

Finally, if we have a Chris Kyle Day, why not a Charles Whitman Day? A nice clean-cut ex-Marine, and a prolific shooter to boot.

Michael Moore talks here about his Tweet that started the wingnuts to slavering and slobbering. He talks here about what he sees as a decade-old "slippage" by Clint Eastwood. Hmm, maybe he's our new Charlton Heston, Alzheimer's and all?

Now, I'm no blank-check fan of Moore's. That said, his Tweet is more about the limits of Twitter than it is about any stupidity on his part.

The nationalistic and American exceptionalism bottom line, of course, is that THEIR snipers are cowards, while OUR snipers are heroes.

And, if you think I'm snarky, read Matt Taibbi's review. Beyond snarky, he notes, bluntly, that the real life Chris Kyle was more of a dick than Eastwood buffed him up to be.

$60 oil looks locked in for next year — consequences both good and bad

First, Saudi Arabia has planned for oil to trade from the upper $50s to the low $60s next year. (And, in case it's not clear, when I talk about "$60 ... locked in," I'm talking about a range. Details of my guesstimates near the bottom.)

Yes, that means a budget deficit for the government, but "only" about 15 percent, which is still a bit less than the current US deficit, and easily handled by the Saudis.

Second, the Saudis are OK with the price going even lower. It's probably true that Russia and Iran are their main targets, but per this story, US fracking may be in their gunsights as well.

That said, I doubt that oil prices take a sustained drop below $55, but, it's certainly possible they flirt with $50/bbl for the next few months, with them continuing to slide now.

Effect? While it may be good overall globally, it will have fallout otherwise.

Russia is probably headed not just for recession, but a near-depression recession. Given today's Russian political news, more unrest is possible, as is harsher crackdown by Vlad the Impaler Putin.

Venezuela is likely headed in the same direction financially. Possibly a milder version of the same political results.

Not sure how this might affect religious tensions in Nigeria.

I'm sure that it won't be fantastic for Mexico.

And, domestically? Texas may also face some sort of recession even as Tricky Ricky Perry, with his exit, dodges the consequences of his alleged "miracle" collapsing.

Given that Gov. Greg Strangeabbott appealed John Dietz's Texas school finance ruling, weaker oil revenues could be a signal for him to side with wingnuts in the Texas Lege and slash at schools and other portions of the state budget.

The Texas state revenue stream faces a bit of a double whammy here, per the Dallas Morning News. First, state production taxes are based on the per-barrel price, which has of course nose-dived. Second, if less is being produced, of course, there's less to tax. That means the idea of giving TxDOT extra money out of the Rainy Day Fund (rather than something sensical like mandate 100 percent of state gas tax money go to transportation, then raise TAXES! elsewhere as needed), roads could get hamstrung again. (Cue up the toll roads Batsignal.)

That said, it's ridiculous that the state gas tax, which is a per-gallon rate, not a price-based rate, hasn't been changed since 1991.

Oil just has to stay at around the $60 for a couple more months to put significant crimps on US fracking for another six months after that. (I disagree with the SMU prof in the Snooze piece who expects oil to bottom out in another month or two and hit $75 relatively quickly thereafter.)

I wouldn't be surprised if it's at $65 or a touch higher by midsummer, but, it could slump back to near $60 again by September 2015.

It should be noted that tar sands oil will likely NOT be greatly affected at current prices; it would probably take sustained prices of $45 or so for that to happen. Therefore, with a new Congress about to enter into office, President Obama will have to face Keystone XL issues once again.

Meanwhile, even with the budgetary challenges, Saudi Arabia itself is likely among the net winners, primarily for all these geo-petro-political reasons.

Rural #redstate Texas gets left out

The Texas Trib, for all I like to kick it, and all the kicking it deserves, has a good series of enterprise stories about how "Rick Perry's Texas miracle" (which never really existed in the first place, as it was built on out-state moves to Texas plus illegal immigration) has left much of the state behind.

First, you know how Perry, the rest of the GOP, and hangers-on like to tout how the state's electric grid is largely separate from the rest of the nation? (Well, except when cold snaps mean we have to "borrow" power from Mexico.)

Well, that "isolation" may be part of why the energy boom, especially in West Texas, is adding a pretty penny to electric bills.

Second, in many of the same rural areas, for a variety of reasons (like the now-unconstitutional school finance system) has stuck municipalities, small school districts, and small counties with ever more debt. You can find out your local debt load here.

And, at the same time, taxes (along with "fees" and other euphemisms) also get pushed down from Austin to local levels.

But yet, all of these places won't "bite" on Wendy Davis' sometimes pandering rightward. She could sell them a real populist message on corruption at CPRIT that's connected to both opponent Greg Abbott and incumbent Rick Perry. She could talk about how Medicaid expansion will help poor white folks as well as poor minorities. She could talk about how Abbott's blockade of better school funding hurts their small town schools. None of that panders rightward.

Texas school finance unconstitutional: Judge Dietz slaps down Perry, Abbott

State District Judge John Dietz, upholding his initial ruling of last year on review, says that Texas' school finance system is unconstitutional.

Here is the basic background, to refresh you:

The case grew out the Legislature's cutting $5.4 billion from public education in 2011, prompting more than 600 school districts responsible for educating three quarters of Texas' 5 million-plus public school students to sue. 

 They claimed they no longer had sufficient resources to educate students. The lawsuit cited Texas' school enrollment growth of nearly 80,000 students per year due to a booming population and the Legislature's increased demands for standardized testing and curriculum requirements to graduate high school.

As it turned out, of course, Texas' economy was nowhere near that dire, and Comptroller Susan Combs had good reason to know that before giving information that she did the the Lege.

Here's what happened next:

Dietz's initial verbal ruling came after 44 days of testimony, but he held off compiling a written ruling that would start the appeals process. Four month later, lawmakers restored more than $3.4 billion to classrooms, translating to a 2014-2015 public education budget worth nearly $56.3 billion, and slashing the number of standardized tests required for high school graduation from 15 to five. 

 Dietz then reopened the case this past January, hearing testimony on how the extra funding and curriculum standards overhaul had affected school districts. But the new evidence wasn't enough to change his mind.

Why?

Basically, because math!

Note that $3.4 billion is $2 billion less than $5.4 billion, first. Second, note that that was one budget cycle ago and didn't account for growth in student population. Third, even the 2011 budget before the $5.4 billion cut was inadequate.

The Dallas Morning News, here, addresses the growth issue part of the ruling.

The lawsuit cited Texas' school enrollment growth of nearly 80,000 students per year due to a booming population and the Legislature's increased demands for standardized testing and curriculum requirements to graduate high school.

The cut in standardized tests may have helped somewhat, but, it didn't address 80,000 new students per year. 

More details here from the Austin American-Statesman. Here's the bullet points of a 404-page ruling that notes Dietz found four specific constitutional problems.

• The Legislature has failed to suitably provide for Texas public schools because the school finance system “cannot provide a constitutionally adequate education for all Texans,” Dietz said in his order.
• The finance system is inadequate because it does not provide enough money to accomplish a “general diffusion of knowledge.
• The system effectively imposes a property tax, in violation of the Texas Constitution, because districts do not have “meaningful discretion” over how the taxes are raised, assessed or spent.
• The system is financially inefficient because all Texas students do not have equal access to the educational money needed.
“Consequently, the court enjoins further funding under the system until the constitutional infirmities are corrected,” Dietz wrote. 

As the ABC story at the second link notes, this will be a campaign issue.

As the Houston Chron notes, complete with the ruling documents on site, there's one small twist that's different from a year ago:

The ruling wasn't a victory for all the plaintiffs, however. Dietz denied declaratory relief for a group of charter schools that joined the suit, as well as a sixth group of so-called "efficiency interveners" pushing school vouchers and reforms to teacher tenure laws.

Whether that will cause a new wave of charter school creations, I don't know. And, the other issues have to make folks like the Texas State Teachers Association a bit leery. 

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis has already asked why the office of Attorney General and GOP gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott is defending the case. Assuming he appeals to the Supreme Court, that becomes a bigger issue and a bigger question.

Plus, per that story, assuming the state Supremes haven't made their final ruling before next year's Lege starts (I'm assuming Abbott appeals directly to there), it will create fireworks there for Speaker Joe Straus, the new guv, and the new lite guv.

Per the Chron, the political optics are already starting:

"Republicans like Sens. Dan Patrick (GOP lieutenant governor candidate) and (GOP Comptroller candidate) Glenn Hegar have touted their education cuts as a victory, and Attorney General Greg Abbott defended those cuts in court," Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said. "The decision today is clear: these cuts were bad for Texas students and our state."

That's about right.

Speaking of, Abbott's released a statement:

"Our obligation is to improve education for our children rather than just doubling down on an outdated education system constructed decades ago. In my campaign for governor, I have proposed substantial improvements for our schools that will do a better job of educating Texans while spending tax dollars wisely. My plan will make Texas top-ranked in the nation for education by returning genuine local control to school districts, ensuring all children are reading and doing math at grade level by third grade, and graduating more students from high school than ever before."

Translation? 

"I'm cheap, I'm hoping that the new loophole for charter schools is a massive one, inner cities are still SOL, and rural wingnuts are stuck with me."

Dan Patrick's is even stupider; he says that it's ultimately for the Lege to decide all of this, rejecting the idea of judicial review.

I don't know if Davis has a statement out yet or not.

Until she, her campaign, Battleground Texas, etc., learn that weekly newspapers exist in Texas, I'm not going fishing for any statement of hers, either. That said, it's not just her. It's Dan Patrick vs. Leticia Van de Putte. I'm sure that, as other statewide races gear up, it will also be other Democrats vs. other Republicans. If you're a Democrat running for statewide office and has a campaign staffer savvy enough to do email blasts, and you're refusing to reach out to smaller newspapers, I don't have a lot of use for you. You are somewhat fulfilling stereotypes that this is all about seven-eight counties in the state.

Meanwhile, back to the main point.

And, also, as if his abuse of power indictment isn't a political boat anchor enough, this, too could weigh on a 2016 Presidential run, if Perry is dumb enough to continue down that road.

That said, let's get back to Dietz's bullet points.

The first and second tie in with the Texas franchise tax and a Perry-pushed "reform" that's what, almost a decade old now? At the time, everybody with brains said it was inadequate and that's proven to be the case.

Bullet point 4 could be a bit dicey. It gets more at the issue of "equalization," beyond the failed "improvement" to the franchise tax. It could be interpreted as saying that the state needs to find better ways of distributing money, as well as distributing more of it, and not just for equalization purposes.

Bullet point 3? Depending on how it's interpreted, that sounds, although it's not new out of Dietz' mouth, like it could be a ticking time bomb.