Top 10 blogging for October

As is normal, these may not all be FROM October, and I'll note those that are not.

As usual, reverse order from 10 to 1 with the appropriate drumroll at the end.

No 10 was a Texas Progressives roundup of white greed, white stupidity and more.

No. 9, slipping in stealthily, was a roundup of Texas Greens' infighting. As is the case from 2020 on, its over issues of transsexualism and transgenderism, and once again, a reminder that sex is not gender, and also a reminder that I reject both of the "twosiderism" two sides within state and national GPs (or former state GPs as in Georgia) on this issue.

At No. 8, I discuss the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine going to mRNA work.

At No. 7, I excoriated Warmonger Joe's linkage of Ukraine and Israel for a $100 billion bribe. (It looks, more and more, like Ukraine is on the back burner and may even be taken off the range. Will other NATO countries follow suit?)

In sixth place, another Texas Progressives roundup, which I edited into an explicit third-party and independent focus. (Why Brains never did this before he took his ball and went home, I don't know.)

No. 5? Wayne Christian following in the footsteps of Susan Combs in hating on the dunes sagebrush lizard.

OK, from here on out, the rest of the list will pick up on No. 6.

No. 4 is my discussion and analysis of RFK Jr.'s announcement of his independent political campaign for 2024.

No. 3? I wondered if Cornel West, Peter Daou or both were daft in Cornel West abandoning the Green Party to run as an independent. (From Bob Jr's POV in No. 4, I support him being an independent and not joining the Libertarian Party.)

No. 2? The Socialist Party USA just nominated Bill Stodden. For a number of reasons, I said I wouldn't be voting him in, if available here in Tex-ass by write-in. Note: All three of Nos. 4-2 are fairly, but not incredibly, long.

No. 1? Could it be bots? From two years ago, a Texas Progressives roundup that looked at the start of the 2022 election cycle and Southwest Airlines problems, a full year before the Christmastime 2022 meltdown.

Top blogging for November

Older posts had the lead in most viewed stories for November, some signal-boosted by me, others not.

An old blog post, from the end of Shrub Bush's first term, my blogging about the Dallas Snooze's take on how Shrub could reinvigorate his Cabinet, has been trending for a full month or so and I have no idea why. It doesn't even have a potential Chinese bot launch-triggering comment. (BTW, if you want an example of how stupid the Snooze was then — and pretty much still is now — on its op-ed page, just click that link. It's a short read.)

No. 2 was signal-boosted and is an September post about coronavirus "vaccine losers," namely, we the people of the US not having a non-mRNA booster, among other things, and why people with bigger popguns than me on Twitter weren't talking about that. It got signal-boosted in part because of a quote-tweet back-and-forth with Dr. Peter Hotez, who talked about what his institute is doing globally with non-mRNA vaxxes, but who went radio-silent when I said globally isn't Merikkka.

No. 3? Fresh stuff. My Texas elections post-mortem (for both Democrats and Greens). Related? No. 9, my take that the Texas Green Party, like I said two years ago about the national party, is past its best-by date.

No. 4 was also election-related, but on a national level. That's my call-out of the New York Slimes for attempting to revive Russiagate just in time for midterms.

And, No. 5? Also election related, and also a post-mortem, this time for one Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke, whom I said, in a visual typographic pun, should be called "Beat-0" for his lack of election prowess the last three cycles.

No. 6 was related. After Greg Summerlin appeared to be trying to make Beat-0 into some wild-eyed radical, I summarized his comments, and expanded on my responses, in a separate post calling out his ConservaDem-ness. And, I may not be done yet.

No. 7 was a Texas Progressives non-election roundup, during election week. Not sure what triggered its popularity, whether it was the part about pro-lifer grifting, Xi Jinping supposedly getting ready to meat MBS or something else.

No. 8? Again, election related. This was my take on Axios undermining its credibility over conflating QAnon with all conspiracy theories, then conflating conspiracy theories with the possibility of an actual conspiracy (while using that word loosely) followed by other thought.

No. 10? My take on the XBB coronavirus subvariant. (Background: I think we're at least moving toward endemic, and that big popguns folks like Walker Bragman have one foot, at least, in tribalism on this issue.)

Texas Progressives talk turkey and dysfunctional government

First, yes, Warmonger Joe's Dems had about the best showing possible during midterms; that doesn't mean your turkey, and even more, your King's Hawaiian Rolls, don't cost more than last year. They do.

With that, let's dig in.

First, Harris County's elections system is still crap, and there's no Stan Stanart to be fired. Per the Trib story, with a 4-1 Democrap majority on the Commissioners Court, IMO, Lina Hidalgo is under the gun to fix this, ASAP. It's really not Cliff Tatum's fault; it's the fault of not spending for software and other needs, and not fixing it makes her look yet more dysfunctional.

Next, SocraticGadfly offers his 2022 election post-mortem for Texas Democrats and Greens. 

Off the Kuff has a different idea about how to assess the performance of the Texas Democratic Party and its candidates in this election.

The Public Utility Commission's neoliberal bribery scheme to "fix" the power grid is drawing skepticism. Members of the Lege need to look at themselves, first, and ask if they're going to actually write legislation. They then need to look at themselves, second, and ask if they're going to draft a constitutional amendment to prevent a Gov. Strangeabbott from vetoing said bill, or any other, and essentially telling the Lege "fuck you" for two years without an every-year legislature or the power to call themselves into special session. Until then, Legiscritters like Lois Cockwhore will remain hypocrites.

Will the Lege finally tighten rules on concrete batch plants? Color me skeptical until it happens.

Sooo, Jarred Patterson wants to make "Peter Pan" a drag show?

Shock me Sm-elon Musk tried to start exploiting Twitter workers almost immediately. It's SOP at Tesla.

Your Local Epidemiologist reviews the current mortality data for COVID. 

The Austin Chronicle explains why Texas is so vulnerable to climate change.

Juanita is mad about that judge who barred the League of Women Voters from attending a naturalization ceremony.

In the Pink Texas takes a breath after the midterms.

Beat-0 is a wild eyed bomb thrower? Greg Summerlin makes me laugh

So said ConservaDem de luxe Greg Summerlin on my 2022 election post-mortem, probably having come there from Kuff, where I'd posted it.

I'm going to pull-quote the whole thing:

To win future statewide elections in Texas, the Democratic Party needs to nominate moderate, mainstream candidates who can appeal to both rural and urban voters. In short, our candidates should support legal (not illegal) immigration, border security, law enforcement, the military, low property taxes, civil liberties, investments in our infrastructure, better healthcare, and improvements to our educational system (while respecting parental input). Our candidates must support a person's right to own a handgun, shotgun, and/or hunting rifle, but should advocate for restrictions to military-style weapons (e.g., AK-47, AR-15). Our candidates should be pro-choice, in accordance with the guidance provided under Roe v. Wade. They should support renewable energy AND responsible oil and gas drilling (yes, we can both). Our candidates must also publicly reject the radical positions advocated by some members in the progressive wing of our Party (Critical Race Theory, "defund the police", transgenders in women's sports, socialism, open borders, etc.). In summary, if we want to win, our candidates must be tailored to the views of mainstream Texas voters.

Well, Greg?

If the likes of you think critical race theory is some secret tool to make all white schoolkids hate themselves, to expand on his comment and my response? Greg, I'm glad you're an EX HCSO deputy. And, if you think Beat-0 was some wild-eyed radical, when did you leave the Republican Party? As linked in the original but reposted here, Beat-0 WAS a Pander Bear (that's what you want) on O and G. Rurales? Dude went to Muleshoe even though I said it was stupid and that contra both him and you, the votes aren't out there. The reason the votes aren't out there is because most Anglos in those places believe the same bullshit you do.

 If you really think this is a problem with Democratic gubernatorial candidates? I give you, in order:

• Republican-voting Tony Sanchez;
• Chris Bell, Republican in sheep's clothing;
• Bill White, bland national neoliberal apparatchik before becoming bland neoliberal Houston mayor
• Wendy Davis, Capitol-connected insider and grifter
• Loopy Lupe Valdez, a "centrist" Dem to the degree she had much in the way of articulated positions on anything, and ex-military and tough on crime
• Beat-0 the Pander Bear.

There. You need not darken my doorstep again.

Since you ARE an ex-deputy at the HCSO, you either know, from the Commissioners Court there, that "defund the police" is Rethuglican BS, or else you are such an ignorant law-and-order winger you should go back to being a Rethuglican. If you weren't, then THAT's the problem: people like you are lifelong Dems. And, the fact you support the now-about-to-be less than 2 Rethugs on the Comm Court shows how deep your BS is. Seriously; you lost me right there.

But, while we're here on cops? Why don't you ever write about cops shooting suspects, especially suspects who shouldn't be suspects, without cause? (To your credit, you do actually call out Derrick Chauvin; that said, having known or known of multiple small town/small county bad cops and constables, the problem is worse than you would admit. Militarization of police is a problem that I'm sure you wouldn't admit.)

And, one more, on your "thugs attacking cops" in Harris? Robert Soliz was found not guilty Tuesday. Let's see how much you support "law and order" by what you say about the verdict.

Critical race theory? I've blogged about that. Even read a touchstone book, Derrick Bell's "Silent Covenants." That's surely one more than you're read. Per the first link in this graf, I think transgender people in sports is a complex issue, and I don't totally disagree with you. That said, there's probably fire on your part behind that smoke.

The only thing I learned from your blog is that the Chronic was bad enough to endorse Mealer.

The only thing I've learned from you is that probably the likes of Gilligan Hinojosa, instead of picking up paychecks from rurales Dems like Bill Brannon, instead of focusing on GOTV, need to do a better educational job on Republican half-breed ConservaDems like you. If you're spilling this nonsense elsewhere, Greg, whether intending to do so or not, you're recruiting people to vote Republican. So, as I said before, if you were a Rethug previously, you'd help Texas Dems by going back.

Texas 2022 election post-mortem

The Trib notes that some suburban "collar counties" that had been trending more blueish reversed that trend. Fort Bend County was the biggest reverser, of counties it samples, followed by Denton County, in my area, which had been close to getting purplish but now is not again. I continue to blame Beat-0 the Muleshoer. Denton is exactly the type of place he should have been not just doubling down on, but tripling down on, in his campaign. And, he never should have lost Tarrant, which turned slightly blueish in the two previous elections.

These things had downballot results, too. Tarrant County might have a Democratic county judge had Beat-0 spent more time there.

Meanwhile, Jamarr Brown, who is the executive officer for Gilligan Hinojosa on SS Democratic Minnow, openly admitted Dem leaders were a fail on GOTV and messaging. Hello, in that story, even Gilberto himself admits the party has problems. Turnout was at 47 percent, which the Trib gives a smiley face by noting that, while below 2018, it was better than previous midterms.

At the Monthly, Michael Hardy compares Texas Dems to Charlie Brown, as in, especially, of Lucy pulling away the football scenes. This:

Carroll Robinson, a Houston law professor and chair of the Texas Coalition of Black Democrats ... is one of several state Democratic leaders who told me the party needs to improve its campaign infrastructure, especially in rural counties, where it performed even worse than in 2018. But when consumers haven’t purchased your product for nearly three decades, it raises the suspicion that you are selling them a lemon. When Ford took its infamous Pinto subcompact off the market in 1980, it wasn’t because the company lacked a robust dealership network but because the Pinto had a well-documented tendency to explode.

Is all you need.

As far as "dealership network," Hardy notes that, despite Beat-0 the Pander Bear, Dems did WORSE in rural Texas than 2018. But, nobody, not Brown or Robinson, is talking about making Gilligan Hinojosa walk the plank yet. Well, Kim Olson, who lost the party headship race to Gilligan this summer, did just that, via retweet, but nobody's followed her lead. And, a Scott Uhl ConservaDem's idea of who should lead the party? Pass. Besides, as I noted at the time of that election, Olson herself is a hypocrite. And, yeah, per a political analyst in Hardy's piece, Dems are close to hitting permanent minority party status. That's between the old BS about "demographics as destiny" and the new BS about "nonvoters being sekrut Democrats."

As for the "bench" for 2024 to challenge Havana Ted, count Hidalgo out, IMO. The contracts cloud will probably still be over her head. The Castro bros will continue to take their hard passes. Nobody of the few Dems in the state Senate is interesting. Maybe a Clay Jenkins, not mentioned in that link two paragraphs above above, steps forward?

As for next year's Lege, Republicans appear to have added one seat in each chamber. Surely not enough for Tony Tinderholt to oust Dade Phelan as House speaker, but the extra seat on the Senate side will just embolden Danny Goeb more.

Forrest Wilder, in his run-Dems-up-the-the-flagpole-and-salute mode, blames GOP redistricting.

Dan Solomon goes worse and says Dems need a celebrity candidate. First, weren't Beat-0 and Loopy Lupe Valdez kind of that? Second, he ignores that Matthew McConaughey took a hard pass. As for ones he suggests? Gregg Popovich could be covered with Primo stench in two years. Eva Longoria ain't doing it.

Kuff weighs in with his own surprisingly good thoughts, starting with having some D officials from "battleground states" do a review of the Texas party, which he acknowledges isn't likely and also may only have a long-term, not short-term, solution. But, it's a good one. Look at how purplish Aridzona's become in relatively short time. Why can't Texas do that? He also notes that this may involved tougher federal action on the border and immigration, which Texas Ds may not like. Well, Aridzona's also a border state, and it's been turning purplish even in the face of all this. So, while Kuff I don't think intended it that way, that part could be seen as a bit of excuse-making for Texas Ds.

==

At least Texas Dems aren't Texas Greens, who suck, full stop, and probably have no more plans to do real change than do Dems.

==

Side note: Harold Cook, Democratic campaign whisperer and more, and apparently in ill health after a stroke a couple of years ago, is dead. Stace has a personal reminiscence. 

==

If the likes of Greg Summerlin think critical race theory is some secret tool to make all white schoolkids hate themselves, to expand on his comment and my response? Greg, I'm glad you're an EX HCSO deputy. And, if you think Beat-0 was some wild-eyed radical, when did you leave the Republican Party? If you really think this is a problem with Democratic gubernatorial candidates? I give you, in order:

• Republican-voting Tony Sanchez;
• Chris Bell, Republican in sheep's clothing;
• Bill White, bland national neoliberal apparatchik before becoming bland neoliberal Houston mayor
• Wendy Davis, Capitol-connected insider and grifter
• Loopy Lupe Valdez, a "centrist" Dem to the degree she had much in the way of articulated positions on anything, and ex-military and tough on crime
• Beat-0 the Pander Bear.

There. You need not darken my doorstep again. And, a more detailed take on Summerlin's plaint is here.

Election denialism cuts both ways, #BlueAnon

Beyond my blog post on Monday about the WSJ and Josh Barro's takes on Inflationmonger Joe's "look at those Republicans" pre-election speech, I'm extracting two things from my blog post on Tuesday about Texas Progressives' last pre-election thoughts.

Election denialism cuts both ways, per the header, and Dems' comments can turn off Dem-leaning voters. Lev Golinkin, also not a wingnut, also says Dems should look in the mirror. Golinkin specifically notes that "Russiagate" didn't happen, despite the NYT's feverish pre-election attempt to revive it, while at the same time calling out the reverse-conspiracy types by noting Russia DID meddle in our elections, even while no state or local voting was hacked, etc.

Putin got even more bang for a small amount of money than bin Laden did with his four airplanes, and Putin's still alive today.

Plus, let's not forget Hillary Clinton angling for Trump to be her opponent. There's LOTS of self-inflicted Democratic wounds that cut both ways. I agree with Golinkin that Democrats "triggered" Trump, while I'll also go beyond him in noting that Trump provided plenty of bad optics, such as calling on Assange to release more emails, that led to that.

I'll also note, which Golinkin and Matt Bivens, at the first link, don't, and that is that Putin is way too smart to have entangled himself with Trump in formal collusion. I've said this plenty of times before.

Per that Monday post, the WSJ was right that Stacey Abrams is a degree of election denier. That said, she did concede quickly to Kemp this time.

Can we call Beto "Beat-O"? Or for the pun, "Beat-0"?

Depending on your font, the typographic pun in the header, in the second set of scare quotes to be precise, may not be clear, but it's a reference to the number of races Robert Francis O'Rourke has won in the last three elections.

I mean, the man lost badly to Strangeabbott last night. In fact, he basically lost as badly as Loopy Lupe Valdez did in 2018. And, hyes, she WAS Loopy, in the Dem primary, repeatedly, despite Brains' wrong assumptions about my nickname, and in the general (where she brought bad baggage that was indirectly self-inflicted and others that was fully self-inflicted).

I start by again blaming Beat-0 as a bad campaign strategerist. He only made it worse, for my money, when he decided that, as long as he was chasing wingnuts in Muleshoe, he'd go full Pander Bear.

Meanwhile, will this serve as a wake-up to Gilberto Hinojosa and the rest of the majordomos within the Texas Democratic Party that the non-voters are not secret Dems? Probably not; it's been not quite a decade since I blogged about their ethnic assumptions on "demographics as destiny" and that was already old news then.

Beat-0 couldn't even win Uvalde County.

==

For the still-clueless among Texas Dems? Nationally, it looks like Dems will lose less than 30 House seats; maybe less than 25, and just possibly only about a flat 20. A good example next door? A Dem challenger had battled Yvette Herrell to a draw in NM CD-2, largely the southern, GOP-leaning part of the state, tho made more Dem-friendly in redistricting.

==

Kuff tries to spin Beat-0's results. (And fails.) Kuff says: "Look, Beat-0 did incredibly better than Wendy Davis!" And somewhat better than Loopy Lupe. "And the best of any Dem since Miss Ann!" In reality, the margin of loss by Beat-0, Loopy Lupe and Bill White, if we put it in terms of polls, would fall outside the margin of error.

Texas Progressives last election run-up thoughts

Off the Kuff reviews the problem of Secretary of State John Scott again.

SocraticGadfly describes a long-form piece in last week's NYT Magazine as nothing other than an attempt to revive "Russiagate" for the midterms.

The Trib says here's what to watch on election night in Texas.

The feds are warning people in Beaumont about anti-Black vote harassment.

Early voting is DOWN from 2018; what will happen on Election Night and who benefits?

The Fifth Circuit (natch) sprung True the Vote from jail.

Election denialism cuts both ways, and Dems' comments can turn off Dem-leaning voters. Lev Golinkin, also not a wingnut, also says Dems should look in the mirror.

Texas Progressives — final pre-election thoughts Texas and national

Following up on my blogging last week about a long-form Texas Monthly piece, Bud Kennedy, arguably now the dean of Texas political columnists, notes that women and youth voters won't save Democrats and in fact didn't save them during early voting.

Bud has more good stuff, including wondering why Beto-Bob and Collier, even more, since he WAS running for Lite Gov, attacked only Strangeabbott and not Danny Goeb.

And, yet more after that. In my blogging last week, I noted Texas Dems have long, and wrongly, relied on "demographics as destiny" on future Hispanic growth. Bud says another version of "demographics as destiny" also isn't true, namely that the Californication of Texas holds no hope and in fact, the average California new move is more conservative than the average Texan already here.

==

Of course, Beto-Bob is also fighting upstream against Warmonger Joe's inflation. (Notice that gas prices went back up again late last week, negating Warmonger Joe's latest SPR release?) "Democrats burn it all down" says Arin Gupta at Counterpunch. Even with the paywall, you get the gist in the portion you can read. But, that's not all from my quarter.

Remember that even the Congressional Progressive Caucus has signed off on the burn-down. Remember that Biden doesn't want diplomacy. Remember that the NYT tried to revive Russiagate to boost Dem chances (something even a Thom Hartmann was dumb enough to accept at face value) 

Oh, and the warmongers, Nat-Sec Nutsacks (and clueless Thom Hartmanns) of the world claiming that Putin doesn't want to negotiate? No, it's Zelenskyy, and Bezos Post spills the beans. US officials, though not really wanting to negotiate themselves, worry that Zelenskyy looks so intransigent that more and more Global South countries will tune him out. Of course, when Zelenskyy and the US feed off each other, it's easy to blame only him.

But, both Texas Dems, re the first half, and national Dems re the second half, will remain clueless because, per Mencken, their pay, along with fame and standing, depend on it.

==

Speaking of the last graph above? Readers have one more chance to hit those polls at right.

==

Texas SoS John Scott continues to muddle his message about Texas elections being secure. Going beyond the Trib, it's possible this is deliberate footsie on his part.

That impression is increased by the story about the one-eyed spavined but unconvicted mule, Ken Paxton, following in Scott's footsteps by sending a boatload of people to Harris County. They've responded by asking for federal monitors, though Merrick Garland had yet to respond at the time of the story.

Dan Crenshaw has gone further than Soctt and called out election deniers as knowing they're lying, saying they've said that behind closed doors.

Election deniers don't care what either Crenshaw or Scott say. Beyond anything else, per this longer read, there's money involved if you're doing a denialism tour, plus fame within the wingnut, or wingnut-squared, section of the GOP, and possible future campaign plans. (One person in the story was Crenshaw's primary challenger this year.)  But, foremost? Follow the money. A cool $25 a pop for a ticket to one of these events? You sell 200 tix for two a week? That's $5K a week. Even if half of that goes to overhead? Nay, 60 percent? You're still netting $2K a week. Nice side hustle. On the non-money side? Kenny Boy has spoken to (at least) one of these events. And, per the first link, Weston Martinez claimed he had a meeting with Scott; Scott said, yes, but it was with public and media there, and not any "close contact."

==

Texas churches continue to defy the IRS on electioneering. Bud Kennedy wrote specifically about Mercy Culture, to which I retweeted this:

Hey, Bud, per 2 Chron. 18:21, how does .@MercyCulture not know it might have a lying spirit in its midst? Since it keeps violating Romans 13 & refuses to submit to the governing authorities, I'd say that's PROOF .@landonschott is exactly that. Don't you hate ppl like me Landon?

— TheRealSocraticGadfly (@real_gadfly) November 5, 2022

Which applies to all churches doing it.

Axios conflates QAnon with all "secret cabal" beliefs, conflates this with tin-foil hattery

Actually, per Axios, it's Dear Leader's presidential pollster. Let's start here:

Joel Benenson, the renowned pollster for President Obama's 2008 and 2012 campaigns, gave a first look at the results of a question he'd never asked before: "We wanted to test QAnon's language that the world is controlled by a secret cabal."

OK?

Now, the graph will show the answers.

What? So, 37 percent of Dems believe in QAnon? No. 37 percent of Dems believe in a "secret cabal," which is quite possibly undefined by Benenson, and in Axios' two-bit mini-stories, the web version of USA Today, is clearly undefined.

And, not all "secret cabal" theories are created equal. Is the "military-industrial complex" a "secret cabal"? Get Ike out of his grave and on the phone! Does it "control America"? Well, two weeks ago, it controlled the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Nuff sed. Like the NYT trying to revive Russiagate last week, "Interesting" that this comes out just before the election.

Russia-Ukraine: Iran ups its game, and, Warmonger Joe, do you REALLY want to remove Putin?

First, on the former. Iran is reportedly sending not only more drones but also short range ballistic missiles to Russia. As far as US tut-tutting over how this could affect revival of the Iran nuclear deal? Well, the EU portion of the "quartet" had (temporarily?) walked away from it a few months ago. Add in the current round of turmoil in Iran, and the bipartisan foreign policy establishment's presumable hope that this could overthrow the mullahs — along with questions about the health status of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei — and the jeopardizing of renewing the Iran nuclear detail is an idle threat. (As far as earlier back-off from the West, Iran has its own fair share of blame.) 

As far as DoD tut-tutting over how much this signals Putin's "isolation," he's still got money to buy all of this from Iran, doesn't he?

==

As for deposing Putin, which Warmonger Joe said this spring, causing White House staff to madly scramble to walk that back?

"Replace him with whom?" To riff on Lincoln telling the Radicals in 1862 that he needed "somebody," not "anybody," to replace McClellan?

Per the Economist, the most likely "anybodies" might be even worse than Vladimir V., at least from the US foreign policy establishment's view.

==

Foreign Affairs' Kremlinology is a semi-fail. On the issue of Russian GDP expected to contract 6 percent this year? Without comparing that the NATO countries' GDP, or EU GDP or US GDP, it's pretty much a nothingburger. I mean, we KNOW EU GDP will contract the second half of this year. US GDP likely so. But, it IS from Nat-Sec Nutsacks™ so that's why you don't get the context. (Germany already expects recession next year.) Also, Finland and Sweden aren't yet members of NATO.

The clueless #BlueAnon at the Daily Texan

A dude named "Justice DuBois," whether a real name or a pseudonym riffing on W.E.B. DuBois (and sullying him), writes this howler for The Daily Texan, the "official newspaper" of (the Blue Anons of) THE (can't forget that) University of Texas, to wit: "Third party voting invalidates your vote."

As an ex-Green, I know it's typical Blue Anon bullshit. After the 2016 election, and up as late as last week, I've been told that in the 2016 presidential election, "I really voted for Trump," or that, in re this year's election, "I'm really voting for Abbott." (Does that apply to principaled undervoting as well?)

As I've also said before, I've never heard Rethuglicans broach the same about voting for Libertarians, even though in both Texas and nationally they draw higher than Greens. 

"Democrats: The party of fear!" is a great campaign slogan.

Back to the piece. 

It's also wrong, unless DuBois meant "statewide office" when he wrote "state office," and I'm uninclined to be that charitable. You ARE a newspaper, albeit one where a lowly sophomore rises to the level of "senior columnist."

But, again, it's wrong. Richard Winger at Ballot Access News, where I saw this first linked, has the goods.

Richard also noted that the "not so young" folks at the Chronic, undercutting part of DuBois' thesis, just endorsed a Libertarian in the CD-22 race in Fort Bend County.

This is the type of callow stupidity someone like Noah Horwitz would write.

Mr./Ms. DuBois would be better served, if a Blue MAGA, writing a piece on Democrats and Overton Windows, or re CD-22, about getting better candidates.

Texas Progressives talk start of midterms voting

SocraticGadfly has two strategery thoughts related to the midterms nationally, namely that neither inflation whataboutism of the Pelosi stripe, nor "But Republicans" (and the implied "Only Republicans" by Team Blue activists on entitlements privatization, are likely to work well with independent-minded independent voters.

Read about the secret plan to try to bring private school vouchers to the state.

Off the Kuff interviews Rochelle Garza, who would be the best Attorney General the state has had since the 90s if elected.

Axe 'em ALL, Jacks, seems to be the sentiment in Nac, at least the community sentiment, to Stephen F. Austin joining one of the four statewide Texas university systems. (Well, Tech's isn't statewide, if it's just Tech and Midwestern.)

How much trouble is Lina Hidalgo in? I'd say it might not be as bad as the Trib hints. But, it's not nothing.

Ill Eagle crossings are up, and not just in Texas. That said, many are from Venezuela, per the story, where Eagle Hunter Joe has invoked Title 42 health standards against them.

Trump continues to stiff the city of El Paso for $500K.

In something very problematic, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals (and what ruling by it is NOT problematic?) has said, in originalism on steroids, the funding mechanism for the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau is unconstitutional. This is, of course, a wedge or camel's nose issue for the Fifth.

The Dallas Observer reports on the violence that Texas nurses are seeing at their workplaces.

The Houston Press lists ten MRA and incel red flags to look for.

Paradise in Hell shakes his head at the DNA kit rollout in Texas elementary schools.

Beto-Bob is within 2 points of Strangeabbott? Color me skeptical

That's the claim of a new poll from Beacon Research posted today, that claims Beto-Bob, aka Robert Francis O'Rourke, is within 3 percentage points of Greg Abbott, and 2 percentage points among definite voters.

It contradicts everything we've heard in the past couple of weeks, or even past month, that said O'Rourke's effort to close the gap has stalled out, as I blogged just earlier today about the UT poll from late last week. It's why I doubted, a week ago, that Beto would catch up. In addition, among people who have identified as very likely voters in previous polls, the gap between the two has been GREATER than among plain old registered voters, and here the gap is a percentage point SMALLER.

And, as KXAN notes at the first link, Beacon does polling on behalf of progressive groups and Democrats. Stuff like this is GOTV efforts disguised as polls, no matter who does it.

To put it more bluntly?

"Dear Beacon: Try not to be so obvious."

Thoughts on this year's races as early voting starts

This will incorporate reflections on the polls at right, and also build on my "Gadfly slate" of last Friday.

First, here in Tex-ass, statewide offices.

I'm not yet ready to say Strangeabbott's odds against Beto-Bob are in above 80 percent, but they are at 70-79 percent. And, barring Kenny Boy Paxton busted for fucking the wife of a Republican official, if Strangeabbott wins, so does every other statewide Rethuglican. Jeebus Shot Sid Miller wins. Wayne "Oil Wells Are" Christian wins. Kenny Boy wins. So do others.

The Lege? I'm not analyzing 150 House races, or even 31 Senate races. Let's say the GOP gains two in the House and holds serve in the Senate. Dade Phelan holds on as Speaker.

Nationally? New inflation concerns, thanks to the latest OPEC cuts, plus tight diesel stocks, have slackened the sails of earlier Democratic tailwinds, as Jeet Heer notes at The Nation, with me discussing in more detail here. So, I've revised downward thoughts I had just a week ago.

And, I mentioned "denialism" in Nancy Pelosi's take on the inflation issue. Susan Glasser at New Yorker applies that word to Warmonger Joe's take on the whole election.

The Senate, I think, odds are about 50 percent it stays 50-50. I had originally had this at a bit above 50-50 that Dems hold serve or improve.

The House poll was the first one I started, when inflation was really bad. Wingnut nominees on the GOP side stand better chances in the House than the Senate. Inflation dipped, but now, gas prices have crept back up. I don't think Dems will lose 50, but, losing 40 wouldn't surprise me.

This could well make Kevin McCarthy as Speaker a slightly loonier, yet ultimately as wingnut-squared-challenged, as Boozing Boehner or Eddie Muenster Ryan. With that big of a majority, the Lauren Boeberts (if re-elected) and Marjorie Taylor Greenes will run wild and might not even be the worst.

Of course, that would relieve Nancy Pelosi of the onus of considering violating her pledge to step down as Speaker. It would also relieve AOC of the onus of having to vote against her, if she did that, in an even tighter House.

Abbott expands lead on Beto-Bob and why? "It's the economy, stupid"

Well, that's not the only reason, but that's a good starting point for why Greg Abbott, aka Strangeabbott, is up 11 points among likely voters in the Texas gov's race vs. Beto O'Rourke, aka Beto-Bob. (Per my "Gadfly slate" post Friday, this confirms that I'm likely to undervote this race. O'Rourke isn't going to win, and he's been a panderer deluxe on the campaign trail; as for options to him, I'm not voting for Second Amendment absolutist Delilah Barrios, even if she is a green. (Hold that thought; I'll have more on the Texas Green Party after the election.)

It may not be fair, per details of the polling, that the environment is the only thing voters trust Beto-Bob on more than Strangeabbott. But, there it is. And, the 50-50 split among Hispanic voters show that, whether it's a real concern or one inflated by Strangeabbott, Hispanics are concerned about immigration, even if Operation Lone Star really isn't doing much.

A 55 percent majority even supports Strange's busing of Ill Eagles out of state.

As for the header? "The state economy" was the second-largest concern among all likely voters, even though it didn't crack the top four among Democrats. Really? In denialism for the sake of a poll, like Passive Pelosi™ trying to pretend inflation doesn't exist (which also comes off as a bit New Agey, and contra Aaron Rodgers, "manifestation" doesn't exist), and Inflationmonger Joe of the frantic SPR releases?

Between various grocery stores last Saturday, I noticed that staples like brown rice are up again. "It's the economy stupid, and it's personal." It's not fair for state politicians to be judged on a national issue they can't control — setting aside the issue of how much or how little presidents can control the economy, and how much or how little they can control specific situations related to the economy. But, it is what it is; and, for both likely voters at the state level, and their candidates, to practice denialism? (That said, Strange hasn't said anything about the economy, but he doesn't need to.)

A 55 percent majority also favors stricter gun control laws, but Beto-Bob the Panderer, or Bob on a Knob, as I've called him before, has backed off that in places like Muleshoe. I mean, four years ago, Loopy Lupe Valdez was clueless. O'Rourke doesn't even have that excuse. Per my hammering O'Rourke as a bad strategerist? Abbott has an 11 point lead in the suburbs. I mentioned more of him needing to visit exurbs rather than suburbs per se, but the general idea applies.

Last note: 1 percent of Dems support Barrios; 0 percent of Rethugs support Libertarian candidate Mark Tippetts. That says something right there, doesn't it? 

Meanwhile, one lady I responded to, on Bud Kennedy's tweeting of the poll, brought out the state-level version of a "Vote for Stein is a vote for Trump." I reminded her (or informed her if she didn't know) that both duopoly parties have engaged in third-party vote suppression, as well as that a vote for somebody is a vote for somebody.

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Update: There's a new poll claiming Beto-Bob has made the race a statistical dead head. I am skeptical.

The "Gadfly slate" for Texas offices 2022

Unlike other current or former members of Texas Progressives, namely, Kuff, Stace and Brains, I haven't regularly done my set of endorsements. 

And, where I live at now, there's damned little to endorse below statewide races, anyway.

Democraps couldn't challenge Michael Burgess for the House, or Drew Springer for the state Senate, or David Spiller for the state House. Unsurprisingly in this part of the world, there's no Greens running for any of these slots. BUT? Texas Libertarians, who boasted a decade or so ago of having a candidate in every state Senate seat, are also AWOL on both the state races. (Sidebar: I'm wondering when there's going to be some Mises Caucus related showdown within the Texas LP, or TLP vs national.)

That said, here we go. For more info on state races, rather than the Tex-ass Secretary of State, I'll suggest you visit Ballotpedia.

On Congressional District 26? Libertarian Mark Kolls is pretty much in Dan "Taxation is Theft" Behrmann; wants to repeal all laws since 1911. Also claims that it was ONLY by marches, etc., and not marches that led to changes in law, that what we got in civil rights happened. A climate change denialist. In other words, a fucktard. And, a perma-candidate to boot. A clear undervote race.

Governor: Beto hasn't closed the gap enough to get my gun control vote, and his pandering on oil and stuff lost me anyway. (See the pinned post at top right for the Pander Bear stuff.) I'm undervoting the governor's race; see here for my initial mulling of that idea, months ago; Second Amendment absolutist Delilah Barrios, the Green candidate, lost my vote from the start with that. And, she is.

Lite guv? No Green running and Mike Collier is an even bigger pander bear than Beto-Bob. Pass.

Railroad commissioner? Not a fan of Green Hunter Crow even before this race. And, any Green saying gas should be $2 a gallon is a fucking idiot. BUT! That's just the starting point. He's ALSO a Texas secessionist! Luke Warford, the Dem, gets all the basic problems of the RRC correct, but doesn't go beyond that to "climate crisis" and should we even be drilling more at all? He does talk about Texas' "energy leadership," but wind, solar, geothermal and UGH hydrogen are mentioned in neoliberal market value terms.

Comptroller? I used to think Glenn Hegar was the one halfway sane Rethuglican in statewide office, but his antics of the last six months have thoroughly disabused me of that. Dem Janet Dudding may be worth a vote, if for no other reason than talking about how the Comptroller's office could intervene more in environmental issues. She also talks about the Comptroller's role in property taxes, especially vis-a-vis big biz. The Libertarian? Not worth discussion.

Ag Commish? Jeebus Shot Sid Miller did a GOP version of Pander Bear this summer when he suddenly talked about legalizing cannabis.  Susan Hays claims to be the real deal on that. She also talks TDA and rural health. But, for another reason, I won't vote for her. Contra her claim, cannabis IS addictive. That doesn't mean we shouldn't legalize it. It does mean, that for the minority of its users that become addicts, our health system, including our creaky Tex-ass rural health system, needs to be better prepared to help.

Land Commish? Vote Green, vote Alfred Molison to put the party above 2 percent on a statewide race and keep its semi-moribund dying carcass with ballot eligibility for 5 more election cycles, even if it's not deserving. (That said, I'm not going to die if he's below 2 percent.) Jay Kleburg is a ConservaDem former Republican. Sadly, Molison doesn't even have a Hunter Crow-level Google based website. Nor a Facebook. Oh, the independent, Carrie Menger, on gunz in schools and other things, is as much a wingnut as any Rethug. (I don't know if 2nd Amendment absolutist Delilah Barrios wants guns in schools or not.)

AG? Dem Rochelle Mercedes Garza deserves a vote just for not being Paxton. Plus, she favors legalized recreational cannabis. Libertarian Mark Ash is a shade-tree lawyer. Answered no candidate questionnaires. And, a perma-candidate.

Courts? I hate partisan elections for judges, but we have them.

No Greens running for the state Supreme Court. Since we have a bifurcated system here in Tex-ass and the state Supremes are about civil law only, not endorsing any Libertarians. But, if you do want to vote for a Democrat, or against a Rethug, per the Trib, Place 9 is your focus.)

No Libertarians are running for the Court of Criminal Appeals, so move along there, too. (If you do want to vote, one incumbent is unopposed, and one of the other two incumbents isn't necessarily a bad Republican. See here.)

At the same time, note that anything on a candidate info list from the Texas Civil Justice League should be taken with a grain of salt, as it also has a candidate-endorsing PAC, which has for years and years pushed "tort deform."

At the start of next week, I'll discuss those polls at right; feel free to hit them up now.

Nancy Pelosi, inflationary political idiot

New inflation concerns, thanks to the latest OPEC cuts, plus tight diesel stocks, which will likely minimize Warmonger Joe's latest effort to battle inflation, and which the Inflation Reduction Act does not do a lot of, have slackened the sails of earlier Democratic political tailwinds for the midterm election, as Jeet Heer notes at The Nation.

Of course, when you're in denialism, like Nancy Pelosi, and a reason I invented Passive Pelosi™:

Inflation’s an issue, but it’s global. It’s global. What’s (the Republicans’) plan? They ain’t got nothing. When you bring down unemployment, inflation goes up. So in any case, (President Joe Biden) brought unemployment (down), cut it in half. Inflation is there but it’s global and not as bad as it is in some countries. We’ll have to message it better in the next three weeks ahead.

How fucking stupid can you be, Pelosi? And, this statement of yours defines that yes, you need better messaging, because this messaging is crap.

I and other Americans are NOT voting globally on representatives to the UN General Assembly.

Jeet then nails Pelosi to the Hillary Clinton yardarm:

While Pelosi is at least urging fellow Democrats to take up inflation as an issue, the thrust of her comments suggests complacency: Other countries have it worse; unemployment is down; the GOP has no alternative; we’re doing great. It calls to mind the ill-fated “America is already great” message the Democrats ran on in 2016.

Oof.

Bernie Sanders said that Dems need to focus on the economy more, and many Dem activists said "but abortion is economic justice." That it is. But, even if you're a minority woman, you're not having a new baby, and considering its cost, every week. You ARE, if you're at the grocery store.

Heer notes that national Dems could take a page from John Fetterman and attack corporate profiteering, and more than just oil companies, which are low-hanging fruit. Yeah, sure.

Heer then suggests calling out Republicans for wanting to privatize Social Security and Medicare. Really? With the last three Dem presidents' history on that?

And, beyond that, you have Liemonger Joe claiming to Peter Doocy that "It's not politically motivated at all," of his latest Strategic Petroleum Reserve release.  But, despite Biden's attempt to low-key this, voters have loudly said "It's the economy, stupid" to Inflationmonger Joe and Passive Pelosi.

Is Beto-Bob going to catch up?

Beto-Bob has slightly more money than Strangeabbott. But, he's only very slightly narrowed the polls and remains well outside the margin of error.

Add in that his "let's go to Muleshoe" lunacy means that he's spent weeks, nay months, squandering time, energy, money and, above all, focus.

Winning?

I doubt it. Strange is right that the polls have essentially flatlined. As prognosticators said months ago, abortion isn't a big needle-mover. And, while he's running for gov, not Congress, inflation is a negative needle-mover against Beto-Bob.

And, he didn't make even more hay on electric bills during summer power warnings by ERCOT. He should have been visiting the fast-growing exurbs of our major metros, not Muleshoe, in July and August.

Agree? Disagree? Hit the polls at right.

Hey, Team Blue? Stop clutching your pearls over Madcow Maddow's unemployment hyping

Here's the reality behind that 3.5 percent September unemployment rate that she breathlessly pushed:

Employers added 263,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. It was the slowest month of hiring in 18 months, showing the red-hot job market is cooling slightly as the Federal Reserve hits the brakes on the economy. 

The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.5% in September as businesses continued to hire from a shrinking pool of workers. The labor participation rate fell slightly, indicating fewer people are working or looking for a job.

There you go.

Yes, per the rest of the piece, it's still a tight job market. 

It may "loosen up" once we actually get into recession.

Meanwhile, the piece also notes that the hiring numbers have been sliding for a few months.

The job market has been weakening for the past few months, with the three-month average job gains shrinking from roughly 530,000 a month at the start of the year to 370,000 today. Job openings fell by more than a million in August, to the lowest level since June 2021.

Quitting? Home sales money to make that easier? Just "taking a break"?

Meanwhile, there's the final angle, as the piece also notes.

If the Fed sees the unemployment rate, by itself, as a sign that inflation is still untamed, it may jack interest rates yet again even as gas prices are back on the rise.

Add to the mix? The nation's No. 3 railroad union rejected the contract that Amtrak Joe brokered to head off the strike. Per that link, via Mike Elk, a strike isn't imminent; the degree of opposition isn't high enough. Four unions have ratified the deal, per the link; seven others are in the voting process of 12 total, leaving the Teamsters' sub-union as the first to vote no. Nothing is expected before Nov. 19, which puts it past the midterms.

So, even to the degree this might be good news for #BlueAnon for the midterms? It could be catastrophic after that.