SocraticGadfly: Los Angeles Angels
Showing posts with label Los Angeles Angels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Los Angeles Angels. Show all posts

May 06, 2021

Hats off to Albert Pujols, however old he is

Word has just come out that the Angels will designate for assignment Albert Pujols, aka Phat Albert, aka The Machine, likely leading to his unconditional release.

Let's be honest; that IS what will happen. For anybody to seriously pick him up, it would have to be an AL team flush with money, if they can't get the Haloes to eat most the contract, and to be thin at DH, at a minimum, and maybe there and 1B both. The BoSox are fine overall at these positions. The Yankees are loaded at DH and OK at first. The Jays are solid at both. On paper, here in Texas, the stRangers and Astros could both use some degree of help, but I don't see either one shelling out money for a waivers claim, and most certainly not the Arlingtonites.

(Update: This new post discusses his possible landing spots on the MLB minimum should he clear waivers, with a second update specific to a certain team.

Update 2: I did NOT have the Dodgers on my Phat Albert dance card; my thoughts.)

That means no shot at 700 homers, and no shots at passing people like Henry Aaron, Willie Mays, Stan Musial or big-head Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez in any counting lists like career runs, RBIs, total bases, etc.

It also makes me wonder how much longer the Tigers will fish or cut bait with Miguel Cabrera, who now officially has the most onerous contract in baseball, although Stephen Strasburg may claim that distinction soon enough.

I will still remember him jacking Brad Lidge, along with the looks of Roger Clemens from the dugout and Nolan Ryan from the Astros ownership box:


That said, per the header? I have long thought he was a year older, at a minimum, than his officially stated age. (And, I'm far from alone in that. A former Marlins GM, I believe at the time that Pujols was using the Phish mainly as chum to get other teams to step up to the plate, wondered about Pujols' age back then. And, I don't doubt that Mozeliak did the same.)

And, as I said four years ago, when he first approached my "Kozma line" named after Pete Kozma? This has been looming for some time, just as happened with A-Rod and will happen some day with Miggy.

In any case, enjoy some career highlights, including his 3 HRs in a World Series game against the Rangers: 

And, hit the Pujols tag for more of my extensive writing about his career.

Because of that extensive rating, I can tell Red Satan that there's no reason to pay for its clickbait "Plus" story about whether he's the best 1B ever or not. He's not. That's  Lou Gehrig.

And, per the second graf above, I also have no need to pay to read a rhetorical question from Red Satan's pay division about whether or not this is the end of the line. It is.

Yeah, it's possible that he clears waivers AND some team then picks him up for the MLB minimum. But ... is he going to go there, when he'll likely play no more than he would have for the Angels?

Pujols says he still wants to play. The Angels essentially honored his desire after it being clear there's no room in the inn in Anaheim.

Per the top dogs in the AL?

It WOULD be weird to see him wearing RedSox togs or Rangers ones, per World Series history. Would be weird in a Stros uni, too, of course. And, following A-Rod's steps at the Pinstripes? Delicious.

And, it's only going to be the AL. He's not playing in the NL, where, except for interleague, he has to play first on a regular basis. Now, that said, I guess AL teams who really think he might have gas in the tank could get in a bidding war about the MLB minimum for his services. He HAS had a long reputation of starting slow, and a week ago, was around .240 on batting and over .700 on OPS.

Returning to St. Louis would be nice and sentimental. But, he's not going ahead of Goldschmidt, not when they also have Matt Carpenter as a cheaper backup 1B.

As for the Angels? It boils down to whether they're better with Taylor Ward in RF and Jared Walsh at !B rather than Walsh playing halfway out of position in right and Pujols at first. And, the answer is likely the former, and Pujols doesn't want to ride pine. Neither did A-Rod at his end.

December 27, 2019

Phat Albert still standing as other 1B start slipping

If you had told me four years ago that Albert Pujols would have a better 2019 at age 39 (let alone possibly age 40 or even 41) than Miggy Cabrera but also not that far off from Joey Votto, I would have laughed my head off.

But, here we are.

Pujols is at league average on OPS+ and still logging 80 percent of his game time at first and NOT DHing. Hell, he even played at third this year!

Cabrera's slippage started showing up three years ago, a bit later into the age cycle than a reported-age Pujols but maybe the same as an actual age Pujols.

The biggie is, especially this year, his power stroke seems to be gone. And, playing primarily DH, he has a heavier dWAR burden to carry, putting him in negative overall WAR this year.

Finally, his contract, with four years left vs Pujols' two, and at higher AAV by a million or two, is looking like it could be about the worst in baseball.

That said, he was already having some "core" related nagging injuries four or five years ago, so this isn't totally unexpected, just a sharper drop than Phat Albert.

That said, while El Hombre has always had an edge of "thickness," Miggy looked almost svelte when younger:



Votto? Many of us, including myself, may forget that he's just a year younger than Cabrera. He is a touch ahead of Pujols on OPS plus and almost a full point ahead on WAR. But, for the second straight year, his BA, OPS, and SLG have all dropped, and dropped, not just slipped. In addition, his Ks are well ahead of his BBs, indicating, like Pujols and Cabrera, he's losing bat power and trying to cheat with more early pitch guessing.

He like Miggy has four years left, but at more than $5 million per year less. That said, the Reds are a smaller market team. Add in 5-and-10 rights, and both are pretty immovable. Also, with him still below 40 WAR, Votto's shot at Cooperstown is starting to fade away.

Of course, NONE of these three may actually be the biggest albatross contract at 1B.

That likely belongs to, and will continue to belong to, the Orioles' Chris Davis. By virtue of swinging his bat one-third less this year than in 2018, he managed to "improve" from -2.8 WAR to "just -1.0. He's all Baltimore's for another three years at $23M per. Having just three years left is the one thing that might make this no worse than Miggy's deal.

With an expiring contract, and not likely to get a new one, at least not a big one, Ryan Zimmerman, between apparent age-related decline and injuries, is also behind Pujols though not as old. Zimmerman has said he'll either stay with the Nats or golf more. Zimm hasn't had 600 PAs since 2013, the last time he broke 3 WAR; whatever contract the Nats offer will be cheap on the base, albeit perhaps with some incentives.

Not an albatross, but ... worrisome for his team? Brandon Belt had only 0.6 WAR this year at 31. He has two relatively inexpensive years left, but barring a turnaround, might not have another big payola.

The St. Louis Cardinals hope that this year's decline of Paul Goldschmidt at age 31 was more a blip than a precursor of his future. He still had nearly 3 WAR, but it was his worst full season in his playing history.

Eric Hosmer continues to not justify what the Padres are paying him. Bright side? Just three more years at $21M per and then it declines to $13M a year, unless he's dumb enough to opt out.

Daniel Murphy, though he managed to get back in the plus side of the WAR column this last year, is toast at any infield position. Fortunately for the team, he's a small contract for the Rockies and has just one year left, outside a mutual option year.

April 09, 2019

Albert Pujols 2019 milestones season preview part 2

In part 1 of my career milestones 2019 season preview for Albert Pujols, I looked at career power stats. But Pujols, certainly the best roiding-free batter in all of baseball his first decade, has other statistical milestones in his crosshairs this year. And, with three years left on his contract, counting this one, he has possibility for significant movement up the ranks in several major career statistical areas in front of him beyond the power statistics.

Let's focus on 2019 and see what might be possible by the end of this year, given his current stats and reasonable projections. In this part, I'm going to look at power-related states.

On runs scored, Pujols, batting cleanup much of his career, is further down the list, in "just" 22nd place with 1,773. But, 57 runs scored this year will vault him all the way to 15th, passing, from bottom to top, Charlie GehringerPaul MolitorTed WilliamsCarl YastrzemskiEddie Collins and Frank Robinson.

On hits, Pujols is currently 23th with 3,090. (ESPN sez 22nd, but ESPN and baseball are sometimes only loosely connected.) Already this season, he passed the just-retired Ichiro Suzuki, who was seven ahead of him. Just 103 vaults him past Dave WinfieldAlex RodriguezTony GwynnRobin YountPaul WanerGeorge BrettAdrian Beltre and Cal Ripken into 15th.

Bonus: Albert gives his side of post-2012 free agency talks with the Cardinals. He's probably right that they didn't give that much imperative on keeping him. But, it was the right decision.

April 02, 2019

Albert Pujols 2019 milestones season preview part 1

The Angels' aging designated hitter / first baseman / immovable object Albert Pujols has three years left on his contract, counting this one, and movement up the ranks in several major career statistical areas in front of him, with several possible all-time top five finishes and one or two top threes or better.

Let's focus on 2019 and see what might be possible by the end of this year, given his current stats and reasonable projections. In this part, I'm going to look at power-related states.

I'll start with home runs.

Albert currently has 633, in sixth place. If he hits a halfway reasonable 28 more, that puts him past Willie Mays into fifth.

Doubles? Pujols is currently 10th with 639. Depending on what we think is reasonable, he could move three or more slots up. Just 19 vaults him into seventh place, past Nap Lajoie, Carl Yastrzemski and Honus Wagner. If he hits 27, that moves him into sixth, past George Brett. And 30 would put him ahead of Craig Biggio into fifth.

RBIs is next, and Albert will move up two places for sure and very possibly three, from his current seventh place and 1,982. Just 15 puts him past Lou Gehrig and Barry Bonds into fifth, and three more gets him to the magic 2,000. A total of 94 ribbies gives him fourth, passing dead-baller Cap Anson.

So, in three big, big career statistical categories, Phat Albert could end this year in the top five.

One other stat is primarily power-based but also connected to total hitting, and that is total bases.

Pujols is currently ninth place with 5,652. A late-career challenging but not totally unreasonable 203 total bases puts him in fifth place there, too, passing from bottom to top Pete Rose, Babe RuthAlex Rodriguez and Ty Cobb.

May 04, 2018

It's 3,000 hits for Albert Pujols! What's next?

Albert Pujols: what's up
for 2018 and beyond?
With a single May 4, Albert Pujols becomes the 32nd player, and second active behind Adrian Beltre, with the retirement earlier this week of Ichiro Suzuki, to hit that milestone.

So, what milestones remain for him, with nearly four contract years left? (That's assuming Haloes owner Arte Moreno doesn't do something like Hank Steinbrenner did with Alex Rodriguez and essentially convert his playing contract into a personal services deal, which Pujols actually has already guaranteed at the end of his contract if he plays it out.)

First, this season on hits. He will pass Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline, Wade BoggsRafael Palmeiro and Lou Brock by mid-June or so; indeed, he passed Clemente Friday night with a second hit in that game. Rod Carew, Ricky Henderson and Craig Biggio should then fall by the wayside by the end of July or so, putting him in the top 25. If, as is likely, he passes A-Rod, Ichiro and Dave Winfield by the end of the year, he's in the top 20.
Here's video:
In a bit of irony, he got that hit in Seattle the day after the Mariners pushed Ichiro into retirement. And the hit came off ex-Card Mike Leake.

Career in that department? Even allowing for nagging injuries and continued decline, he should get at least 3,550 hits, which would put him past Tris Speaker into fifth all time. (That's on an allowance of 155 hits this year and an average of 145 per year over the four remaining contract years. Another 81 — which might be a tough challenge — would give him 3,631, and Cardinals fans know who that's about.)

Beyond hits, he now joins A-Rod, Willie Mays and Henry Aaron as the only members of the 3,000 hits/600 HRs club. And, whatever his exact ranking at the end of the year on the RBI totals, with 65 more, he joins Aaron in a two-person club of 3,000 hits, 600 HRs and 2,000 ribbies.

With 620 homers, Ken Griffey at 630 is next on the chase list there. Mays at 660 is likely out of the chase until next year. If he plays out the contract, he should catch Mays for sure, probably A-Rod, and possibly Babe Ruth.

Aaron's mark for career extra-base hits is an outside possibility. Pujols needs 179 total, or about 45 a year, to pass Barry Bonds for second. He needs 216, or about 56 a year, to pass Aaron.

He likely wont catch Aaron on career total bases, but should pass everybody else for second.

And, Albert still has a decent shot at one all-time career record. Right now, he's 480 short of The Hammer on the career RBIs mark. Throwing out his injury-plagued 2013, he's met or beaten that mark every year with the Haloes. Ruth is in second, just 398 ahead of Pujols. Barring serious injury, Albert catches him. Even with more injury problems, he's just 270 RBIs away from passing A-Rod into sole third place.

And, on runs scored, he's got a shot of joining Ruth and Aaron in the 2,000-run, 2,000-RBI club.

Again, that's if he plays out the contract.

Per my comment above, how long WILL he stay around, if he can't play better than he did last year? (Allowing for Pujols' typically slow starts to seasons, he is playing somewhat – but not incredibly — better this season.)

Old Redbirds skipper Tony La Russa told the Boston Globe that he thinks Albert will know when it's time, if it is before his contract ends, and will accept that.

On the other hand, sports book author Jeff Pearlman tweeted this May 3:
And, to be honest, not primarily because I am a Cards fan but under general observations, Pearlman may not be all right, but he's not totally wrong, either.

That said, on his self-honesty, and his health? If he heats up, relatively speaking, from this April/early May, he could well finish with, let's say, a 110 OPS+. That's enough for him to play next year for sure.

And, on self-honesty, and related issues? This is all complicated by the fact he may be 40, not 38. Still takes nothing away from a great career. (And Trueblood is wrong that Albert's post-30 sticks out like a sore thumb if he's indeed 38; five other players on his list are like Pujols or worse.0

We'll examine 2020 and 2021 possibilities down the road.

Enjoy for now! Even you, Brad Lidge.



I still like the look on the face of Roger Clemens in the Astro dugout. And LOVE the look on the face of Nolan Ryan in the Astro exec box.

Or, Mike Shannon's version of the call:



Finally, some career highlights of The Machine:

June 03, 2017

Phat Albert gets No. 600!



Albert Pujols: what's ahead
for 2017 and beyond?
Albert Pujols, aka Phat Albert, Prince Albert and other monikers, will never reach his St. Louis Cardinals level of skill in his "twilight" years with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. (And Downey and other places?)

Nonetheless, he keeps moving up various baseball milestone ladders. So, what's ahead for him for 2017 — and beyond, with a full five years left on his contract, shy of Arte Moreno doing an A-Rod-style buyout?

Per the header, he's just knocked out No. 600 Saturday night. And a grand slam to boot! He is the ninth to pass that. MLB.com video here. Another video, on YouTube, from someone at the game, on the left field seats, here.

He'll have a chance to move further up the career rungs this season, too. Sammy Sosa at 609 and Jim Thome at 612 should easily be surpassed; Ken Griffey at 630 may have to wait until next year.

Pujols joins Sosa as the first two players born outside the United States to crack the 600 mark.

Another milestone also lies ahead. Starting the year at 2,825 hits, Pujols is eyeing 3,000 hits. (That said, Pujols hasn't had 175 hits since 2010 —though he was close in 2011 and 2012 — so this may wait a year.) He should, though, at a minimum, pass the likes of Pudge RodriguezBabe Ruth and Barry Bonds and move into the 35th-place slot on the career hits list. (Passing Bonds by 1 would be 111 hits.)

Career in that department? Even allowing for nagging injuries and continued decline, he should get at least 3,550 hits, which would put him past Tris Speaker into fifth all time. (That's on an allowance of 155 hits this year and an average of 145 per year over the four remaining contract years. Another 81 — which might be a tough challenge — would give him 3,631, and Cardinals fans know who that's about.)

On career homers, let's give Pujols 29 for this year for a career total of 620. While I don't see him catching the big three of Bonds, Hank Aaron and Ruth, that still gives him a good shot for passing 700 with 20 a year for the rest of his contract, and 24 a year would push him past Ruth. At a minimum, after Junior Griffey, he'll catch Willie Mays, then should pass A-Rod.

Pujols has also joined Bonds and Ruth in the 600-homer, 600-doubles club.

And, Albert still has a decent shot at one all-time career record. Right now, he's 480 short of The Hammer on the career RBIs mark. Throwing out his injury-plagued 2013, he's met or beaten that mark every year with the Haloes. Ruth is in second, just 398 ahead of Pujols. Barring serious injury, Albert catches him. Even with more injury problems, he's just 270 RBIs away from passing A-Rod into sole third place.

Aaron's mark for career extra-base hits is also a possibility. Pujols needs to average 54 a year. Outside of the injurious 2013, Pujols was well over that mark until last year. If he can't catch Aaron, second place, at least, is almost guaranteed, with about 47 XBHs a year needed to pass Bonds, and third is a cinch.

He likely wont catch Aaron on career total bases, but should pass everybody else for second.

Oh, and while he's not the fielder he once was, and accumulating injuries have moved him more and more to DH, he's still and already 11th in career assists by first basemen. By the end of his career, there's still a chance he passes the likes of George Sisler to move as high as sixth place. (that said, coming off his latest foot surgery, he will start this year solely at DH.)

April 24, 2015

Josh Hamilton, Texas Ranger?

Josh Hamilton
According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, with Bill Baer at Hardball Talk rounding up several additional links, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Downey, and Owner Cluelessness are prepared to make a "dump" trade of — no stereotyping words — outfielder Josh Hamilton to the Texas Rangers, the city where he made good.

And, it's reportedly a done deal, with the Angels eating all but $15M of his salary.

Several questions, issues, and thoughts.

1. On that "eating salary," per more information, on USA Today and a Hardball Talk commenter, reportedly this is NOT adding up to $68M + $15M. The Angels are allegedly saying that because Texas has no state income tax, Hamilton:
(I)s also expected to help offset the remaining $15 million, according to a person involved with the talks.
I am sure this is not the first trade of a player from a state with income tax to a state with none, or vice versa, with one party eating contract. On the vice versa, the stRangers ate some of A-Rod's contract, but the Yankees weren't asked to "help Alex out" because he would now be paying state income tax.

To me, this sounds like a violation of the collective bargaining agreement between owners and the players union.

And, it's a bogus argument anyway. Twenty-one states have laws on their books to tax the salaries of visiting athletes in road games, meaning the "tax-free state" argument is bullshit. There's more here on how accountants who specialize in working for athletes have to deal with this. Wikipedia even has a jock tax page.

But, per the latest update on the situation, with Hamilton getting an opt-out after just 2 years (like he's gonna use that), Hamilton is eating $6 million of contract money.

Oh, and does anybody think Josh Hamilton is either:

1. Dumb enough to exercise that opt-out and leave $30M on the table (or $28M, after 1/3 of that $6M "no state income tax" is deducted), or
2. Going to have a banner year in 2015 or 2016 making it worth his while to opt out?


If the MLBPA thinks that's worth eating $6M, the players ought to fire Tony Clark and see if they can get Donald Fehr back, or somebody.

A lot of fans, I'll bet, don't get that the money per se isn't the issue; it's a player voluntarily undercutting a signed contract by renegotiation. See Section 2 immediately below.

2. Grant says originally said a buyout of Hamilton's contract is was being mentioned, with the Rangers then signing Hamilton for the veteran minimum, rather than Angels' owner Arte Moreno eating a chunk of the current contract. Unless the buyout is for 100 percent of what's left on the contract, the Players' Association and current executive director Tony Clark have to get involved, don't they?

Do they have that power? Well, if the attempted trade of Alex Rodriguez by the Rangers to the Boston Red Sox is an indicator, the answer is yes:
And the MLBPA nixed it. The union had to approve any alteration to a player’s contract that would reduce his salary. It also had to look out for the best interests of all its members, for whom Rodriguez’s contract was a benchmark rising tide that lifted all boats. And so it said no.
Sounds simple enough. 

That said, per the update, Tony and the union need to get involved on the "no tax, Josh will help us" issue.

3. What is Commissioner Corleone's role, if any?

We know that Rob Manfred, as former Commish Bud Selig's right-hand man for labor issues, was the person who got the Budster to bring the hammer down on A-Rod over Biogenesis. We know that he's been lackadaisical, even when called out on it, in looking at who leaked about Hamilton being under a potential disciplinary gun. Is he seeing this as a chance to push the union, if buyout is the operative word?

4. Given Hamilton's latest relapse is connected to him filing for divorce, and his sobriety support network starting with his soon-to-be ex-wife and ex-father-in-law — as Christian Right/prosperity gospel wingnutty as they are, as I discussed here — what sort of structure does he have for support, or does he expect to have?

Ron Washington is no longer the manager there, after all. With his own background, even if no addiction was involved, of having used cocaine, perhaps Washington, generally known as a "players manager" in terms of clubhouse chemistry, was part of that previous support — and on-field success — too? Jeff Banister may be a decent enough guy, but he didn't manage Hamilton before.

That said, Grant notes:

The Rangers have worked through a number of scenarios, including how Hamilton would fit back into the clubhouse. It should be noted that Roy Silver, who was hired as a special assistant in player development over the winter, operated the faith-based baseball academy at which Hamilton was reintroduced to baseball in 2007.
So, that may help. Or may not.

After all, just a month ago, Silver said Hamilton should retire.

5. Whether as a buyout for "considerations" or a straight trade, who do the Rangers send back? A few people on Hardball Talk have suggested Shin-Soo Choo. That would be even dumber, IMO, for Moreno than keeping Hamilton. Sure, it's over twice as many years, but Choo's remaining contract is 50 percent more than Hamilton's. I've suggested Elvis Andrus, who's just starting a long-term contract that's a moderate but not humongous overpay. Either he or incumbent Erick Aybar could be moved to second, as I highly doubt that Johnny Giovotella's start this season will last.

6. That said, per other fans, I don't get what's in this for the Rangers, other than a marketing deal. They're nowhere near contending this year, and many thought they'd be lucky to finish ahead of the Astros and stay out of the cellar, especially after losing Yu Darvish for the year to Tommy John surgery. Maybe they want butts in seats that badly, and the price was cheap enough, given that we have yet to hear any names of players going back to the Angels.

7. How will he do? Better than in LA, on non-park-adjusted stats, since Arlington's a launch pad and Anaheim is slightly to moderately pitcher friendly.

Adjusted stats? He'll probably do somewhat better than with the Haloes, but a fair amount worse on both adjusted and unadjusted stats than he did with the Rangers the previous go-round. And with him in left and Choo in right, Leonys Martin will have to bring his A game defensively every night.

April 16, 2015

Josh Hamilton and the 'disease theory' of addiction

Josh Hamilton, neither
'good' nor 'bad" but possible
'ugly' of addiction.
Now that Los Angeles Angels former star outfielder Josh Hamilton will officially get no suspension for an alcohol and cocaine relapse, both the moral scolds and the "there, there" folks are coming out in force.

The scolds say that Hamilton just needs to "man up" or whatever. The "there, there" types usually talk about addiction as a "disease" where Hamilton just can't help himself.

The moral scolds? They've been a thorn in the side to addicts long before Alcoholic Anonymous as the first 20th-century addiction recovery support. They're generally off base, and often of the type to selectively apply their "man up" ideas.

That said, note that I called AA "20th-century." I did NOT call it "modern."

Second, for the "there there" folks, outside of 12-step circles, the "disease theory" of addiction does not have universal support.

Given that it came from a non-medical organization, and is also decades old, and that things like the "neurotransmitter theory" has been shown to be incomplete at best on depression and serotonin and, more directyl to this issue, on "rewards" and dopamine, we probably should back off on a broad-brush use of the idea, even more so when you add in that we still don't know a lot about consciousness or free will and volition.

(And, if a person on Hardball Talk thinks that his HMO disagrees with me, and that article, for any other reason than money, namely meds being cheaper than talk therapy, they're stupid indeed. Or, at a minimum, simplistic.)

Beyond that, nobody is "powerless over alcohol," nor over an illicit drug. If so, nobody would ever quit.

Of course, the 12-step movement solves this with the injection of god, then adds irrational insult to irrational injury by claiming it's not religious.

This is like the Lutheran "single predestination," one even more illogical than Calvinist double predestination. People get blamed for their addiction, but not credited for stopping it.

Again, nobody is "powerless" over alcohol or other addictive substances. One may become close enough to powerless after starting addictive use again to never quit for good, but that's why this has more than two sides.

Beyond that, "good liberals" should note what this piece says: promulgating the disease theory may be harmful to addicts. Take that with a grain of salt, though; a BIG grain of salt. It's by Stanton Peele, who pushes "moderation" for and to too many people, in my opinion.

That said, a 20-year-old kid with his first DWI shouldn't be force to attend AA; neither should he be forced to attend a secular alternative. In many cases, moderating one's behavior should be the first approach.

And, on both that issue, and understandings of addiction in general, that's why, once again, we need to quote the Iranian philsopher Idries Shah:
“To 'see both sides' of a problem is the surest way to prevent its complete solution. Because there are always more than two sides.”

Exactly.

Often people want to see only one other side not just because it's easier to think in black-and-white than shades of gray, but also because it's easier to "win" an argument if there's only one other "side." Hey, I can still be like that myself.

Now, the situation at hand, since an arbitrator has ruled Hamilton did not break league drug policy?

I'm not looking for MLB to throw the book at Hamilton. Nor am I looking at MLB or the Angels to treat him with kid clubs. I expect both, beyond their business interests and legal restraints, to treat him in the best way possible for him.

Related to the legal angle, I have to disagree with Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk. It's possible that at least part of the leaks in all of this were NOT by the Angels, but rather by Hamilton trying to stay ahead of the story. "Goes to motive," as the old legal saying avers — an old legal saying which Calcaterra, a formerly practicing lawyer, knows. And, with Hamilton, I believe he has the mindset to do that.

That said, it's more likely that the Angels were the leakers. I suspect that GM Jerry DiPoto is "venting" anger he'd really like to direct at owner Are Moreno for pushing for the Hamilton signing. DiPoto, let's not forget, at the time Hamilton was a free agent, wanted to resign then-Angel Zack Greinke rather than letting him walk in free agency. Survey shows that would have been a MUCH smarter move. Sabermetrics shows that, outside of one fantastic year in 2010, adjusting for The Ballpark's hitter friendliness, Hamilton was good to very good, but not great, otherwise, with the Rangers. (That said, Greinke, if we compare ERA+ to OPS+, straight up, has been throughout his career what the non-2010 Hamilton was in Texas.)

Steve Howe, with his seven suspensions and still not "learning," shows that, just like Christians talk about "why some and not others" on "being saved," that addiction is a mysterious issue. It also shows that it's not the business of MLB, or the Angels, to, well, to go beyond business. They will help him to the degree it accords with best business practices first, and true sympathy second. They will cut him off at the pass to the degree they can to the degree it accords with best business practices.

(For those who can't remember, Howe died in a one-vehicle rollover where he was the driver, and toxicology reports show he had meth in his system.)

Speaking of, one person has a good perspective on this: Angels manager Mike Scioscia, who played with Howe on the Dodgers.

Of Howe, at his death, Scioscia noted:
"Clearly, he was a kid who never reached his potential, but for a short time he did. The feeling of regret, he never expressed, as far as I know."

That second sentence, especially, is noteworthy.

Of Hamilton, he said last week
“(A)ddiction is a terrible thing, and he’s trying to deal with that.”
 “I don't know if there is any use looking back, whether surprised or relieved or whatever,” Scioscia said. “I could go either way, but most important is for Josh to pick up the pieces and get himself where he needs to be first with these issues and then we'll see where he goes from there as far as getting to baseball activities. So we’ll see.”
Scioscia may not even remember what he said about Howe. But, the idea is important. Hamilton’s not too likely to be going down the same road if he’s regretful.

As for “problems”? Howe, if not “born to be wild,” was certainly determined to be that way.

Hamilton? I think, per his Wiki page, his car accident, a small determination to be a little wild, and perhaps smothering parents that he wanted to escape, are all factors.

One point in common so far? Evangelical Christianity didn't "save" Steve Howe from his addiction; so far, it's not been a magic cure for Hamilton, either. That's not to claim it's all Christianity's failure, but it is to note above that the 12-step movement's "god deal" ain't so totally true, again.

Meanwhile, back to addiction in general.

Alcohol is not that strongly addictive physically. And, even many illicit drugs, without repeated administration on a regular basis, are less physically addictive than the nicotine in cigarettes.

This all gets back to the medieval "cur alii, non alii?" question. In English, that's "why some, not others?" In other words, whether for salvation or overcoming addiction, why do some "get it" but not others.

As for addiction in general? I still lean toward the idea that, if you've crossed some invisible barrier into "abuse," to use the professional phrase, abstinence is almost surely the best option. But, that's not set in stone yet, either.

And, let me take this as a chance to say that AA and NA, and the 12-step movement in general aren't the best answer for many, and, as we enter into the world of evidence-based medicine, aren't the scientifically proven be-all, on average, for anybody.

There are secular — non-religious but NOT anti-religious — options out there. I recommend one called Lifering Secular Recovery.

(Meanwhile, on the baseball-playing front, Commissioner Corleone, aka Rob Manfred, seems determined to risk a repeat of the 1994 lockout.)

August 28, 2014

Angels should trade for Colon to save Arte Moreno from himself

Mike DiGiovanna at the LA Times says that that the L.A. Angels don't want to trade withj the Mets for Bartolo Colon  because it will push them too close to the lux tax limit next year, and, as a sidebar, could prevent them from chasing a top-tier free agent.

Welll, on Colon alone, wrong; on Colon preventing the latter, maybe that's good.

First, the Colon alone situation Looking at Cots Contracts for the basics of 2015 Angel overhead, here we go.

The Angels have $123M committed next year. Colon would make it 134. Huston Street's option goes to $141M. There's what, $12M or so that each team owes MLB for pensions, etc. annually, that counts toward the lux tax? (I'm not exactly sure what the 2014 number is, but it was just under $11M for 2013.) That's $153M now. David Freese on his final arbitration year? We'll say that's at $6M for $159M on our count. Other arb cases, by my math, come in at $17M, on a rough guess, for $176M. Let me add $4M, or a bit over 2 percent, to take that up to $180M.

Others? Jason Grilli and Joe Thatcher are gone, if necessary. Even with minor league call-ups, the Angels are below $189M for next year. Other small free agents, like John McDonald, also will be let go.

Plus, if any MLB player is traded for Colon, his pay comes off that total, remember.

It would be tight, yes, but very doable.

Second, as for Colon instead of another free agent, or Colon being too old, or whatever?

First, Colon's age.

Sure, a younger pitcher would be nice, yes. That said, Colon's not bad. If he has 1.7 WAR for next year, going on 1 WAR = $6.5M, he's exactly earned his keep. And, is that unrealistic? No. Especially given that the Angels don't have an idea yet on Garrett Richards' 2015 time frame, Colon could be desirable well into next season.

It's true that DiGiovanna says "push right up against," not over, but notes in the next clause that Arte doesn't want to go over. That's why, with my math, there's some flexibility.

Now, let's look at Moreno hunting great white shark free agents next year.

In starting pitching, there's aces Jon Lester and Max Scherzer, then a step down to James Shields. Especially for just the one year at $11M, I'll argue that, from looking at the 2015 free agent list, Colon is better than a lot of the dog's breath out there.

And, even without Colon in 2015, Scherzer or Lester pushes Arte over the lux tax right there. Even a James Shields is going to push you over, in all likelihood. And, all three, given Moreno's track record, are "magnets" for him to overpay.


If he's going to pursue a B-level pitcher, why not just sign Colon now? Angels fans should see the logic in it, and encourage Jerry DiPoto to push a Colon trade to save Arte from himself.

After that, Moreno and DiPoto can chase David Price in 2016, go over the lux tax for a year, then get back below the next year.

And, Mike DiGiovanna? Per my original blog post, you were bloviating. If yours was a straight news story, you didn't crunch numbers enough. If it was a column, you didn't mention Moreno's past overspending history.

==

Besides that, 2015 is next year. Per many analysts, the Angels could use, really use, Colon now. He'd give them better odds of staying ahead of the A's and winning the division rather than a wild card. He'd also give them better odds of winning more games in the playoffs.

August 26, 2014

Yes, the Angels can sign Bartolo Colon (updated)

Mike DiGiovanna at the LA Times bloviates that the L.A. Angels can't sign Bartolo Colon without going over pushing the limits of the lux tax of $189 million next year.

Wrong.

Looking at Cots Contracts for the basics of 2015 Angel overhead, here we go.

The Angels have $123M committed next year. Colon would make it 134. Huston Street's option goes to $141M. There's what, $12M or so that each team owes MLB for pensions, etc. annually, that counts toward the lux tax? (I'm not exactly sure what the 2014 number is, but it was just under $11M for 2013.) That's $153M now. David Freese on his final arbitration year? We'll say that's at $6M for $159M on our count. Other arb cases, by my math, come in at $17M, on a rough guess, for $176M. Let me add $4M, or a bit over 2 percent, to take that up to $180M.

Others? Jason Grilli and Joe Thatcher are gone, if necessary. Even with minor league call-ups, the Angels are below $189M for next year. Other small free agents, like John McDonald, also will be let go.

Plus, if any MLB player is traded for Colon, his pay comes off that total, remember.

It would be tight, yes, but very doable.

Update, Aug. 27: DiGiovanna responds to an email from me.

He's right that he didn't say Colon by himself would push them over the limit; hence the first-graf update.

That said, my response?

Well, a younger pitcher would be nice, yes. That said, Colon's not bad. If he has 1.7 WAR for next year, going on 1 WAR = $6.5M, he's exactly earned his keep. And, is that unrealistic? No. Especially given that the Angels don't have an idea yet on Richards' 2015 time frame, Colon could be desirable well into next season.

True that you say "push right up against," not over, but you note in the next clause that Arte doesn't want to go over. That's why, with my math, there's some flexibility. And why I'm only halfway apologetic for the word "bloviate," especially since a journalist at the mighty L.A. Times had to look up the damned thing and email me the definition, in case I didn't know it.

Dear Mike: I did know it. That's why I used it.

And, even without Colon in 2015, Scherzer or Lester pushes Arte over the lux tax right there. Even a James Shields is going to push you over, in all likelihood.


If he's going to pursue a B-level pitcher, why not just sign Colon now? Looking at the 2015 free agent list, Colon is better than a lot of the dog's breath out there.

August 22, 2014

#Schadenfreude is a waiver-wire bitch, Orioles fans

Manny Machado, limping. / Photo via NBC Sports
After the season-ending knee injury to breakout Angels starter Garrett Richards, the Baltimore Orioles, per Peter Gammons, "are claming everyone," i.e., waivers on any pitcher being run through the wire who has half a fastball, including Bartolo Colon and Scott Feldman.

Well, if Matt Shoemaker can continue on his recent success, Hector Santiago pick it up, and C.J. Wilson start to earn his big free agent contract, the Angels, who have been lucky with starters this year until now, may not be too back off. (That said, Wilson's gotten a lot worse since the All-Star break, but Santiago's been steady and Shoemaker has improved.)

Also?

Now, it's time for payback for the Orioles, too.

The O's standout third baseman, Manny Machado, is done for the year with a knee problem, congenital not injury-related, it seems, that requires surgery.

And, the Orioles' in-house options to replace him, brave Bawlmore fans aside, are as bad as the Angels' local options for a pitcher.

Right now, they're trying the "mysteriously" "regressed" (read into that whatever you want, I'm surprised allegations aren't thicker) 1B Chris Davis there, even though he's played less than 80 games there in his career. Other "options" include Ryan Flaherty, who is below both the Mendoza Line of old-time baseball fame for Mario Mendoza and the Kozma Line of my modern sabermetric invention to "honor" Pete Kozma.

Other Orioles options are no better. ESPN lists Cord Phelps, who has played less than 5 games at third and less than 100 MLB games overall as the next option. Why ESPN says that, I don't know.

Utility man Steve Pearce is definitely the better option with the bat, but he's only played 10 games at third himself. They could keep Davis at third, but Pearce hasn't played a lot at first, either.

In any case, defense will also definitely drop off.

As for the schadenfreude? The Yankees, Royals, Tigers, M's, Jays, and Indians all have legitimate, "ethical" reasons to gobble up any infielder run through the waiver wire right now. Have fun in Charm City.

But yet, at NBC's blog on the news, Oriole fans are delusional enough to think they're going to get Adrian Beltre off the waiver wire. Man, I can be a Cards fan without being a stereotypical idiotic "homer" like that.

I hadn't realized that he'd already cleared waivers, per my comments over there, not checking that, just because I was primarily focused on pointing out how stupid all the Orioles fans are who thought they could get an easy deal on him, ignoring that he'd never clear that many waiver hurdles.

If the fans commenting at NBC are representative of O's fans' general intelligence, you deserve every bit of schadenfreude you're getting.

And, as for the one commenter who called me out for "busting a dream"? It wasn't even a dream, it was pure fantasy. No reality basis to it. Beyond that, many of the same Oriole fans were surely chortling over their own management blocking the Angels from waiver-wire pitching pick-ups.

And, with that, we've moved from schadenfreude to 100-proof hypocrisy.

May 10, 2014

Looking at Albert Pujols' long-term future — he could be an all-time leader

Now that Pujols appears to be over most of his plantar fasciitis problems, and hitting like something near the 2011 version of Pujols (sorry, Arte Moreno and Mike Scioscia, you're not getting the 2008 version or whatever back), where will he wind up in terms of career numbers? I'm noting that, with Josh Hamilton back by the end of this month, and hopefully batting reasonably well for the 3.5 years he has remaining with the Haloes, and Mike Trout there for years to come, this is based on a modest-to-moderate normal career decline arc through 2016, gaining some speed in 2017-2018, and arcing downward more for his last three seasons, albeit offset by playing more at DH.

So, here's some tentative predictions as to where he'll finish on some counting, and sabermetric, numbers in relation to Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and others, whether great classic figures of the past or people with some "help" in more recent years.

That includes noting that he has an outside shot at becoming the all-time leader on at least one counting stat.

First, slugging percentage. Pujols is currently seventh. I expect him to fall no lower than No. 11, staying ahead of current No. 12, Miguel Cabrera, and possibly just to ninth, ahead of current No. 10 Joe DiMaggio. That would still leave him above the majority of people on the list above.

Park-adjusted OPS+ is a good all-around measure of a player. Pujols is currently 10th, at 165. Aaron and DiMaggio are among a group tied for 22nd at 155. Cabrera and Joey Votto are among those tied for 25th, one point lower. Ed Dehalanty is 30th at 152. I certainly don't see Pujols going lower than that.

Next? Total bases, where Pujols is No. 50, with just over 4,450. A strong, but not overly aggressive prediction of 1,950 for the rest of his career gives him 6,400, behind only Aaron. Even a conservative estimate of 1,680, or 225 per year, which he's easily done every non-injury year, still puts him ahead of Musial in the No. 2 slot. (And yes, Stan Musial is No. 2 in career total bases; I just wish more semi-casual, but semi-serious, baseball fans would see this and recognize just how damned good he was.)

In RBIs, Pujols is 49th. He's 773 behind Aaron, 690 behind Ruth and 651 551 behind No. 3 Cap Anson. An output of 90 RBIs per season for the rest of this year and the next 7 full seasons left on his contract would put him past Ruth.  With 85 or so ribbies, he's past Anson, at least. We'll put him there, with a shot at Ruth. He can get just under 70 per year and pass Bonds into No. 4, which seems it should be no problem. (Per the commenter, thanks for the catch on the math on Anson. It still will be somewhat of a sled to catch Anson.)

And, finally, Pujols has a semi-reasonable shot at becoming the career leader on one list. That's if he can get about 430 more total extra base hits.

As of early May, he was 25th on the career list, 428 behind Aaron and 391 behind Bonds. If he has 58 extra base hits the rest of this year, for 76 on the season, that leaves 360 in the next seven years. Just 52 extra-base hits a year puts him past Aaron.

Possible? Yes, but not easy. For obvious reasons, I'm not going to look at Bonds.

A few others:
Aaron had 318 extra base hits his last seven years
Musial: 291
Mays: 275
Ruth (not counting his partial year in 1935): 495.

However, especially with not counting 1935, Ruth's career ended three years earlier than those other gents. For his last four full seasons, he had 240 extra-base hits. But, 47 a year over three more extrapolated years would put him at the 380 mark.

So, it's possible. And, just 46 extra-base hits per year after this year puts him after Bonds.

April 24, 2014

#Sabermetrics: The Pujols advantage over other big boppers at first base

When Miguel Cabrera signed his big new contract with Detroit earlier this year, the response of this blogger and many pro sports writers was: Too long. Specifically, we generally cited the similar contract of Albert Pujols.

There's two other first basemen of roughly the same age to throw into this mix. That's Prince Fielder, traded from Detroit to Texas to let Miggy move from third to first, and Ryan Howard.

But, there's one difference between them.

Pujols is a plus fielder at first; none of the others are. In fact, none of them are close.

A friend of mine scoffed when I called Pujols a plus fielder, but the record doesn't lie. First, there's the two Gold Gloves — and four Fielding Bible awards. But, let's move beyond that into sabermetrics, since FB uses them much more than GG traditionally has.

The basics? Prince Albert has a career total (which includes a few OF and 3B games) of 134 fielding runs. And he has a career positive of 1.9 dWAR. 

For reference, the fielding and mustache god of modern first basemen, Keith Hernandez, has only, yes, only, 117 fielding runs and 0.6 career dWAR.

Now, to the others.

Howard's long been regarded as a statue, and stats don't lie. He weighs in with -46 fielding runs and -12.4 dWAR for his career.

Fielder? A couple of years ago, a lot of allegedly sabermetrically informed writers and bloggers talked about when he'd lose his range at first. I got news for you all — he never had it. At -93 fielding runs and -17.8 dWAR, he's worse than Howard. He's had a slightly longer career, but not that much longer. In other words, on average, each has cost his team a little more than a full point of dWAR, and around 7-10 fielding runs, per year.

Miggy, actually, comes off as relatively not so bad. At -77 fielding runs and -12.0 dWAR, in a career longer than Fielder's, let alone Howard's, and noting that most of this was at third not first, perhaps some of us have been a bit hard on him? 

Actually, no. His first couple of years at 3B in Miami weren't too bad, but he soon looked like crap. Detroit, let us not forget, quickly moved him to first after trading for him, before getting the even more immobile Fielder.

(All Baseball-Reference stats are for all positions for those playing multiple spots.)

Just to dip to Fangraphs, on a cross check, on total zone runs and ultimate zone rating per 150 defensive games.
Hernandez: 121/(no UZR)
Pujols: 96/6.2
Cabrera: -7/-2.0
Fielder: -38/-5.5
Howard: 14/-3.4 (really)
All Fangraphs numbers are for first base only. 

I did not include Joey Votto in any comparisons, for two reasons.

First, he's got an even shorter MLB career to date. Second, he doesn't have the "statue" reputation.

Sidebar: this shows that "we" still have a ways to go in advanced defensive metrics. While Baseball-Reference is my go-to for stats, and I generally rate it over Fangraphs, Fangraphs has its value. This isn't the first time the two have differed a lot on defensive issues. I don't really believe Fangraphs on Howard; on the other hand, I don't totally believe B-R that Pujols is in the same league as Hernandez. On the third hand, B-R's advanced fielding says that Prince Albert has just six fewer ground ball double plays initiated than does the Merry Mex. For comparison, Howard has about 80 fewer and Fielder about 75 fewer, so, maybe B-R shouldn't be doubted quite so much as I think.

Anyway, given all that I wrote above, on fielding, it makes me wonder if Prince Albert hasn't even been underappreciated in some way.

Anyway, moving on ...

Future realities?

Cabrera could go to DH as early as next year, if the Tigers don't resign Victor Martinez, or land another DH-first person. That, in turn probably depends on other things, starting with whether or not they resign Max Scherzer.

Fielder? Mitch Moreland's at DH now, and hits arbitration next year. He could be traded, or not. Why he's not the primary 1B in Arlington now, I have no idea other than two words: "Ron Washington." Of course, we know what he thinks about sabermetrics.

Howard? He should be traded to an AL team, but no trades out of Philly (sorry, Cliff Lee) are happening until Ruben Amaro is finally fired. That said, given that Howard refuses to adjust a lot, he's not that good of trade bait, except to AL teams with a short right field. Calling the Steinbrenner brothers!

Pujols? He's still a plus fielder. He's said he'll take a day here and there of being "spotted" at DH, but, as long as he's an even fielder, as well as a plus fielder (he started a 3-6-3 double play recently) why would you do anything but keep him at first? This is also part of why on overall WAR, and even more WAA, he's a cut above Cabrera and at least that much above the others.

It's also an advantage to the team. If you have someone who's still bringing this level of power and who can at the same time make a positive contribution with the glove or, at minimum, even a few years down the road, not make a negative one, it gives you more lineup flexibility.

Speaking of adjustments, most of Pujols' early home runs have been on high strikes. Whether he's guessing well, has lost a few pounds (it looks possible), has gone to a lighter bat, or is quicker on turning on the ball without the fasciitis, or some combination of the above, I don't know. But something's happened.

This all also shows that, even if Pujols' contract still turns out to be a long-term overpay, and even if 1B is not a defense-first position, it's still going to be much less of an overpay than Cabrera's new one, or even Fielder's current one, in all likelihood; that said, Fielder being younger helps a bit. Howard? We already know the truth about his albatross; the Phillies are just lucky on its shorter length.

And, let's not forget that, with passing the 500-HR mark, he's probably more likely to pass 600 than most the others on this list are to pass 500. 

===

Welcome, visitors from Fangraphs and elsewhere. See some of my other recent baseball blogging, including my touting of a new Kozma Line as a sabermetric replacement for the old Mendoza line and, with the century mark at Wrigley, my take on Babe Ruth's called shot.