Rasmussen’s new poll has Big Bad John Cornyn up by a whopping 55-40 margin and even worse for Rick Noriega, up 54-32 among unaffiliated voters. Plus, amazingly, Cornyn still has a better favorable/unfavorable ratio.
And, spare me the claims of Rasmussen’s GOP bias. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight says it ain’t true.
As I’ve blogged before, there’s going to be plenty of finger-pointing, and even a circular firing squad or two, if Cornyn actually winds up with a double-digit win.
I would prefer seeing the circle-jerk within Kos and other MSLBs even more than that within the Texas Democratic Party.
Showing posts with label Noriega (Rick). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Noriega (Rick). Show all posts
October 24, 2008
October 21, 2008
Noriega campaign shows shortcomings of MSLBs
By MSLBs, for non-regular readers, I mean MainStream Liberal Blogs. ’Twas them, from the top down, starting with Kos (which should give you a clue as to how ‘real’ this “reality-based” effort actually was), who pushed for an undistinguished state legislator to run for Senate, and inflict upon voters a campaign as disorganized, disastrous and dim-witted as a Dennis Kucinich presidential campaign, doorknob bless him.
No, I take that back.
Kucinich actually comes off as halfway professional or more.
First, Kos has kind of a fetish for “men in uniform” Democratic candidates. Probably something psychological there, but I have both better and less scary things to engage in than psychoanalyze Kos — like playing tag with a pack of javelinas.
I will say, though, that I said four months or so that Noriega needed to find more to run on than a military uniform. If he hadn’t “discovered” populism after the lenders’ bailout, he’d be foundering worse — like a pack of scared javelinas caught in quicksand.
And, doesn’t this seem like a modern, Internet-driving version of “backroom politics,” except powered by lattes, not Montecristos?
But, beyond that, it shows that backroom politics as anti-backroom politics probably isn’t a good idea. The Texas Dem insiders who stayed away from Noriega probably did so in part because they weren’t stroked. Victor Morales and his self-starting red pickup campaign were one thing; this may have been another.
Finally, on the blogosphere side, is it not things like this that are decried against the mainstream media, actually believing itself to be a fourth estate?
At the same time, massive primary turnout aside, it shows the Texas Democratic Party as a statewide force is more illusion — by far — than reality.
If there’s one thing Texas Dems need to learn from the Noriega loss (and loss it will be, in all likelihood — I’d bet on a McCain win before a Noriega one) — is that it’s 18 months and pocket change until the 2010 gubernatorial election.
Back to specifics of the Noriega campaign.
Whether his fault or Texas Dems, we have little in the way of North Texas/Metroplex appearances, no sense of campaign urgency up until now, etc.
Both a better candidate and a better campaign are necessities. No Kinky Friemdmans or pistol-packing Strayhorns will be around to provide false hope.
No, I take that back.
Kucinich actually comes off as halfway professional or more.
First, Kos has kind of a fetish for “men in uniform” Democratic candidates. Probably something psychological there, but I have both better and less scary things to engage in than psychoanalyze Kos — like playing tag with a pack of javelinas.
I will say, though, that I said four months or so that Noriega needed to find more to run on than a military uniform. If he hadn’t “discovered” populism after the lenders’ bailout, he’d be foundering worse — like a pack of scared javelinas caught in quicksand.
And, doesn’t this seem like a modern, Internet-driving version of “backroom politics,” except powered by lattes, not Montecristos?
But, beyond that, it shows that backroom politics as anti-backroom politics probably isn’t a good idea. The Texas Dem insiders who stayed away from Noriega probably did so in part because they weren’t stroked. Victor Morales and his self-starting red pickup campaign were one thing; this may have been another.
Finally, on the blogosphere side, is it not things like this that are decried against the mainstream media, actually believing itself to be a fourth estate?
At the same time, massive primary turnout aside, it shows the Texas Democratic Party as a statewide force is more illusion — by far — than reality.
If there’s one thing Texas Dems need to learn from the Noriega loss (and loss it will be, in all likelihood — I’d bet on a McCain win before a Noriega one) — is that it’s 18 months and pocket change until the 2010 gubernatorial election.
Back to specifics of the Noriega campaign.
Whether his fault or Texas Dems, we have little in the way of North Texas/Metroplex appearances, no sense of campaign urgency up until now, etc.
Both a better candidate and a better campaign are necessities. No Kinky Friemdmans or pistol-packing Strayhorns will be around to provide false hope.
October 16, 2008
Texas Senate debate II liveblogging
Grades and wrap-up at the bottom
First, an apology; I got here late due to having to repair an old, crashing computer at work, but I listened to the radio broadcast on the way home.
I heard some HUGE hypocrisy from Cornyn.
Claiming he is FOR more financial sector legislation, that he wants grand juries looking at Wall Street, etc. Utter bullshit. The rest of the debate was in this same vein, of Cornyn fighting "entrenched Washington" while striving for bipartisanship.
Cornyn apparently pulled up Texas House Dems' flight to Ardmore over the redistricting fracas at some time, too. I heard him reference Ardmore at about 8:20.
He then said Noriega wouldn't do anything re a bailout. And then, he said the bailout brought tax benefits to Texas. Noriega did some instant judo on that, with the pork for wooden arrows, Puerto Rican rum, etc.
For Rick Noriega, at least, he seems more fired up than the first debate.
8:33 Gromer Jeffers asks great question about addressing poverty
Cornyn talks about getting people opportunities to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps.
Noriega: “Some people don’t have boots.”
8:35 Cornyn – nobody likes the way Washington works in a non-bipartisan sense. Another lie. This one coming from Bush’s Texas lapdog, vs. his No. 10 Downing Street lapdog.
8:39 Cornyn opposing TXU’s coal plants now?
8:40 I LOVE the idea of the video clip interview as a debate question set-up.
8:41 Cornyn – Noriega health plan will cause rationing, etc.
Hey, John, we ration healthcare now.
8:44 Paul Burka asks if Cornyn has pushed Perry and Craddick to do more at the state level with S-CHIP.
8:48 Noriega – government as “negotiator” for lower insurance rates. Sounds a bit brreaucratic, and convoluted.
8:52 Interesting final question by KERA’s Shelly Kofler – both candidates asked to pretend being a small businessman themselves, with a crew of illegals showing up.
Noriega tries to dodge, then says, “I don’t look and assume. It’s not a fair question.”
Cornyn agrees system is broken, including the documentation part of it. Rides Noriega's coattails without having to offer up his own dodge.
But, is it broken? Immigration and Customs’ raids on meatpacking plants show the documentation of workers is not a broken part of the system. ICE knew who to arrest, and later, on the "Iowa Kosher" plant, was able to figure out who was underage.
Yes, some aspects of the system may be broken, but the system as a whole is not broken as far as what it's supposed to do. What's broken is the issue of how seriously we want to sanction employers and how seriously we want to monitor the border.
Noriega also whiffed on a shot to look at trade issues and foreign policy in this context.
So, both candidates dodge the question. Or, both lie about it.
Cornyn closing. Thanks, etc., and re-elect me.
Noriega. “This government is in the ditch.” (Earlier, he mentioned lack of trust in the system.) He should have condensed his thank-yous to the bare minimum, though.
Wrap-up: Noriega did better than in the first debate. Seemed somewhat more vigorous, but somewhat overprepped at the same time. He gets a B-minus overall.
Cornyn gets a C-minus. It was a nice attempt of his to try to be "Mr. Outsider," but I think Cornyn pinned enough Bush on him for a bit of it to stick. But, Cornyn may be able to dodge the worst.
Bottom line? It's still Cornyn's election to lose, but the margin for losing tightened at least a little. I still say Dem 527 groups should fund Libertarian Yvonne Schick to bite at Cornyn from the farther right.
First, an apology; I got here late due to having to repair an old, crashing computer at work, but I listened to the radio broadcast on the way home.
I heard some HUGE hypocrisy from Cornyn.
Claiming he is FOR more financial sector legislation, that he wants grand juries looking at Wall Street, etc. Utter bullshit. The rest of the debate was in this same vein, of Cornyn fighting "entrenched Washington" while striving for bipartisanship.
Cornyn apparently pulled up Texas House Dems' flight to Ardmore over the redistricting fracas at some time, too. I heard him reference Ardmore at about 8:20.
He then said Noriega wouldn't do anything re a bailout. And then, he said the bailout brought tax benefits to Texas. Noriega did some instant judo on that, with the pork for wooden arrows, Puerto Rican rum, etc.
For Rick Noriega, at least, he seems more fired up than the first debate.
8:33 Gromer Jeffers asks great question about addressing poverty
Cornyn talks about getting people opportunities to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps.
Noriega: “Some people don’t have boots.”
8:35 Cornyn – nobody likes the way Washington works in a non-bipartisan sense. Another lie. This one coming from Bush’s Texas lapdog, vs. his No. 10 Downing Street lapdog.
8:39 Cornyn opposing TXU’s coal plants now?
8:40 I LOVE the idea of the video clip interview as a debate question set-up.
8:41 Cornyn – Noriega health plan will cause rationing, etc.
Hey, John, we ration healthcare now.
8:44 Paul Burka asks if Cornyn has pushed Perry and Craddick to do more at the state level with S-CHIP.
8:48 Noriega – government as “negotiator” for lower insurance rates. Sounds a bit brreaucratic, and convoluted.
8:52 Interesting final question by KERA’s Shelly Kofler – both candidates asked to pretend being a small businessman themselves, with a crew of illegals showing up.
Noriega tries to dodge, then says, “I don’t look and assume. It’s not a fair question.”
Cornyn agrees system is broken, including the documentation part of it. Rides Noriega's coattails without having to offer up his own dodge.
But, is it broken? Immigration and Customs’ raids on meatpacking plants show the documentation of workers is not a broken part of the system. ICE knew who to arrest, and later, on the "Iowa Kosher" plant, was able to figure out who was underage.
Yes, some aspects of the system may be broken, but the system as a whole is not broken as far as what it's supposed to do. What's broken is the issue of how seriously we want to sanction employers and how seriously we want to monitor the border.
Noriega also whiffed on a shot to look at trade issues and foreign policy in this context.
So, both candidates dodge the question. Or, both lie about it.
Cornyn closing. Thanks, etc., and re-elect me.
Noriega. “This government is in the ditch.” (Earlier, he mentioned lack of trust in the system.) He should have condensed his thank-yous to the bare minimum, though.
Wrap-up: Noriega did better than in the first debate. Seemed somewhat more vigorous, but somewhat overprepped at the same time. He gets a B-minus overall.
Cornyn gets a C-minus. It was a nice attempt of his to try to be "Mr. Outsider," but I think Cornyn pinned enough Bush on him for a bit of it to stick. But, Cornyn may be able to dodge the worst.
Bottom line? It's still Cornyn's election to lose, but the margin for losing tightened at least a little. I still say Dem 527 groups should fund Libertarian Yvonne Schick to bite at Cornyn from the farther right.
October 12, 2008
Sean at FiveThirtyEight drinks Noriega Kool-Aid
Sean Quinn at FiveThirtyEight.com says Rick Noriega is “a credible candidate in the Lone Star State.”
Either Sean is uninformed, he’s delusional, or he’s right, in the sense that Texas Dems have a fairly low “credibility bar” for statewide office. Here’s what I told Sean:
Beyond that let’s not forget Noriega barely avoided a primary runoff against a halfway credible schoolteacher, a security guard and the “other” Gene Kelly.
Noriega can still "sell" me if he does a hell of a lot better in the second debate.
Either Sean is uninformed, he’s delusional, or he’s right, in the sense that Texas Dems have a fairly low “credibility bar” for statewide office. Here’s what I told Sean:
Sean, has Noriega been selling you some cheap crack? He’s NOT that credible; he’s a bland and relatively uninspiring speaker/campaigner, he ran too hard too long on his “I’m a war veteran” shtick, has been an indifferent fundraiser (Mikal Watts and his private war chest would have been a MUCH better choice.) And, it ‘s not just Noriega; can the Texas Dems as a party not raise money?
Hell, he just barely avoided a primary runoff against a teacher (halfway legitimate opponent), a security guard and the “other” Gene Kelly.
As for “winners,” by her not acting too bat crazy, I said Libertarian Yvonne Schick won the first Senate debate. Maybe Noriega would be more likely to win if liberal 527s would back-door Schick some money, especially (and, I’m not joking) if she could get a Kinky Friedman endorsement.
Beyond that let’s not forget Noriega barely avoided a primary runoff against a halfway credible schoolteacher, a security guard and the “other” Gene Kelly.
Noriega can still "sell" me if he does a hell of a lot better in the second debate.
October 09, 2008
Cornyn-Noriega debate I wrap-up
Here’s my wrap on the first John Cornyn-Rick Noriega Texas Senate debate, liveblogged here.
That said, first of all, Jim Lehrer, Tom Brokaw and especially Gwen Ifill could learn boatloads about how to run a debate from the moderator and panelists tonight.
Second, the Commission on Presidential Debates could learn have to have something closer to a real debate.
OK, how did the candidates do, and how does this play out politically?
Libertarian Yvonne Schick got enough exposure to not seem a total whacko, and yes, the bailout may have sent a lot of phone calls to her website. What would really help her?
A halfway endorsement, or hat tip, from Paul. Or, without a full-fledged embrace, some sort of favorable comment from Kinky Friedman.
That said, what if she pulls down 5 percent of the vote Nov. 4? And, should some Democratic-focused 527 look at funneling her money?
Second, Cornyn made no huge gaffes, but just took a detour around the truth on some bailout-related issues and healthcare. His version of “there you go again,” told in two or three different ways, didn’t sound convincing.
Noriega did a solid but not spectacular job of selling himself. He needs to set his pants on fire in the second debate or we can finish writing him off.
And, if it turns out that in Kentucky, a Democrat can pull down powerhouse Mitch McConnell, but Noriega can’t topple a one-term senator, it’s going to reflect badly on both him and the Texas Democratic Party.
Grades? Schick B/B-minus. Noriega B-minus. Cornyn B-minus/C.
Beyond the grades, Schick is the biggest winner by far for the visibility factor with only a moderate kookiness level attached.
That said, first of all, Jim Lehrer, Tom Brokaw and especially Gwen Ifill could learn boatloads about how to run a debate from the moderator and panelists tonight.
Second, the Commission on Presidential Debates could learn have to have something closer to a real debate.
OK, how did the candidates do, and how does this play out politically?
Libertarian Yvonne Schick got enough exposure to not seem a total whacko, and yes, the bailout may have sent a lot of phone calls to her website. What would really help her?
A halfway endorsement, or hat tip, from Paul. Or, without a full-fledged embrace, some sort of favorable comment from Kinky Friedman.
That said, what if she pulls down 5 percent of the vote Nov. 4? And, should some Democratic-focused 527 look at funneling her money?
Second, Cornyn made no huge gaffes, but just took a detour around the truth on some bailout-related issues and healthcare. His version of “there you go again,” told in two or three different ways, didn’t sound convincing.
Noriega did a solid but not spectacular job of selling himself. He needs to set his pants on fire in the second debate or we can finish writing him off.
And, if it turns out that in Kentucky, a Democrat can pull down powerhouse Mitch McConnell, but Noriega can’t topple a one-term senator, it’s going to reflect badly on both him and the Texas Democratic Party.
Grades? Schick B/B-minus. Noriega B-minus. Cornyn B-minus/C.
Beyond the grades, Schick is the biggest winner by far for the visibility factor with only a moderate kookiness level attached.
Liveblogging Cornyn-Noriega debate I
So far, Noriega has had some decent talking points but not inspiration. Cornyn got called out on using tax cuts for rich as part of paying for bailout, and whiffed.
Libertarian Yvonne Schick? A lot of people say her time in the debate hurts Noriega by taking time away from him. But, it may help if she is halfway intelligent, in taking votes away from Cornyn. OTOH, she's thrown out an occasional doozy.
And, she's a Scientologist to boot? Whooooo.....
8:23 Noriega both good and bad on immigration, as far as political play.
The good? Talking about how the Cornyn plan would take private property from Americans.
The bad? Talking about expanding visas.
8:26 Cornyn lies about Medicare fraud, and doesn’t put it into context of fraud in private insurance, where fraud is higher.
As for the S-CHIP lack of sign-ups, that’s an issue that’s ultimately at Rick Perry’s feet. And Noriega is whiffing on chance after chance to ion the tail of Perry as well as Bush to Cornyn’s backside.
That said, Cornyn is right that Medicare is in shakier straits by far than Social Security. And, speaking of which...
8:32 Noriega nails Cornyn on wanting to privatize Social Security in light of the Dow's bleeding the last couple of weeks.
Good question on gun shows and sales loophole – well-phrased. Schick doesn’t describe how closing this loophole would somehow infringe that right.
Noriega schwaffles and panders to Texas chapter of NRA.
Cornyn stresses his Texas AG fence.
8:36 Patriot Act – Schick is right… repeal it. Noriega’s “review” it is weak.
8:40 Fairness Doctrine? Another good question.
Cornyn goes in the tank for Big Media. Schick is hard-core libertarian. Noriega twists answer to Cornyn opposing journalism shield law.
8:42 War on Drugs – David Jones asking another damn good question.
Noriega – I’m law and order from my border service. Cornyn – I was Texas AG, remember! Schick – End the WOD.
8:45 Earmarks – Cornyn – I’m seeing the light of transparency. Schick – cut government. Noriega – I oppose; why did bailout have to have sugar attached, rather than homeowner help.
8:47 Public campaign finance – Schick – take a guess. Noriega – “get money out of politics,” then talks about money in judiciary, which is a state not a federal issue. Cornyn – against.
David Jones then tanks with a “wow, Barack Obama” question for Noriega, as wild cards go to one candidate, no follow-up.
Schick asked on Bob Barr support. Supports most, but disagrees with him “dissing” Ron Paul, when it was actually the other way around.
Cornyn – what to do w/Mexican drug cartels? Do what we can, but Mexico is sovereign.
Libertarian Yvonne Schick? A lot of people say her time in the debate hurts Noriega by taking time away from him. But, it may help if she is halfway intelligent, in taking votes away from Cornyn. OTOH, she's thrown out an occasional doozy.
And, she's a Scientologist to boot? Whooooo.....
8:23 Noriega both good and bad on immigration, as far as political play.
The good? Talking about how the Cornyn plan would take private property from Americans.
The bad? Talking about expanding visas.
8:26 Cornyn lies about Medicare fraud, and doesn’t put it into context of fraud in private insurance, where fraud is higher.
As for the S-CHIP lack of sign-ups, that’s an issue that’s ultimately at Rick Perry’s feet. And Noriega is whiffing on chance after chance to ion the tail of Perry as well as Bush to Cornyn’s backside.
That said, Cornyn is right that Medicare is in shakier straits by far than Social Security. And, speaking of which...
8:32 Noriega nails Cornyn on wanting to privatize Social Security in light of the Dow's bleeding the last couple of weeks.
Good question on gun shows and sales loophole – well-phrased. Schick doesn’t describe how closing this loophole would somehow infringe that right.
Noriega schwaffles and panders to Texas chapter of NRA.
Cornyn stresses his Texas AG fence.
8:36 Patriot Act – Schick is right… repeal it. Noriega’s “review” it is weak.
8:40 Fairness Doctrine? Another good question.
Cornyn goes in the tank for Big Media. Schick is hard-core libertarian. Noriega twists answer to Cornyn opposing journalism shield law.
8:42 War on Drugs – David Jones asking another damn good question.
Noriega – I’m law and order from my border service. Cornyn – I was Texas AG, remember! Schick – End the WOD.
8:45 Earmarks – Cornyn – I’m seeing the light of transparency. Schick – cut government. Noriega – I oppose; why did bailout have to have sugar attached, rather than homeowner help.
8:47 Public campaign finance – Schick – take a guess. Noriega – “get money out of politics,” then talks about money in judiciary, which is a state not a federal issue. Cornyn – against.
David Jones then tanks with a “wow, Barack Obama” question for Noriega, as wild cards go to one candidate, no follow-up.
Schick asked on Bob Barr support. Supports most, but disagrees with him “dissing” Ron Paul, when it was actually the other way around.
Cornyn – what to do w/Mexican drug cartels? Do what we can, but Mexico is sovereign.
Can Rick Noriega ‘get in the game’ tonight?
With John Cornyn’s first of two Texas Senate race debates with Rick Noriega up today, Noriega has the opportunity to get name recognition. And he needs it, because, in a sign of the state of his campaign, he allegedly doesn’t even have enough of it in what should be his base in South Texas.
I agree that I’ve not seen much yard sign activity for Noriega — or for Cornyn.
But, Enrique Rangel cautions us to remember even Victor Morales.
That said, I think Noriega needs to hit Cornyn harder on the home foreclosures, not just more abstract parts of the bailout. He needs to explain to independents his opposition to a border fence in a larger context. If he’s having name recognition in the Valley, he needs to address that. He also needs to ride Obama’s coattails to get down-ballot black votes from what will be a heavy black turnout.
That said, I’m not optimistic for him unless Obama or Biden show up in Texas to do more than cash campaign checks, or else the Slickster follows in Hillary’s footsteps.
I agree that I’ve not seen much yard sign activity for Noriega — or for Cornyn.
But, Enrique Rangel cautions us to remember even Victor Morales.
That said, I think Noriega needs to hit Cornyn harder on the home foreclosures, not just more abstract parts of the bailout. He needs to explain to independents his opposition to a border fence in a larger context. If he’s having name recognition in the Valley, he needs to address that. He also needs to ride Obama’s coattails to get down-ballot black votes from what will be a heavy black turnout.
That said, I’m not optimistic for him unless Obama or Biden show up in Texas to do more than cash campaign checks, or else the Slickster follows in Hillary’s footsteps.
October 08, 2008
Cornyn starting to sweat a bit?
Texas Sen. John Cornyn, with a 10-1 cash advantage over challenger Rick Noriega, has a lead of less than 10 percentage points in external polls. But, he and campaign manager Rob Jesmer are still worried. An internal memo by Jesmer says:
Jesmer expects Noriega to start running TV ads Thursday. And, don’t forget Thursday’s debate at 8 p.m. on KERA and other public TV stations. Unfortunately, no third-party candidates are included.
“We are operating in an extremely volatile and fluid political climate. … we will likely have to navigate some bumpy days as the election approaches.”
Jesmer expects Noriega to start running TV ads Thursday. And, don’t forget Thursday’s debate at 8 p.m. on KERA and other public TV stations. Unfortunately, no third-party candidates are included.
October 02, 2008
Cornyn lead over Noriega slipping
The latest Rasmussen poll puts the Senate battle at just 50-43. The Snooze speculates that just as the economic woes have hurt Schmuck Talk Express™, Big John is getting dinged, too.
Speaking of that, even the presidential race here has a visible horizon, now: McCain is up just 9 points.
Speaking of that, even the presidential race here has a visible horizon, now: McCain is up just 9 points.
September 08, 2008
Intrade, Gadfly style
Yes, “Intrade” is probably copyrighted by the folks who started the concept but, short of “Horsetrade” or something like that, no eye-catching name has come to me yet.
OK, let’s keep this simple, and in percentages.
First, even though Palin is “started the concept,” that’s not the same as her getting the boot from the ticket.
So, Palin withdrawal/booting odds? 6 percent. With Schmuck Talk Express™ himself striving to quash Troopergate, she's not going away.
Obama vs. McCain? 55-45. I’ll tackle a guesstimate on third-party percentages and such starting in a week, but that will come; can’t have just the duopoly listed.
For more insight yourself, Electoral-Vote is invaluable.
FiveThirtyEight.com is better in some ways, with Intrade-type odds lines. It also isn’t afraid to critique things like ad quality from the presidential candidates.
Meanwhile, of course, the real Intrade is all about wagering, right? Well, some high muckety-mucks from various European Union countries and the EU bureaucracy have also For more insight yourself, placed their bets.
Cloture-proof Democratic Senate? 10-90. (I’m deliberately putting that on the low side, but, honestly, I don’t think it’s going to happen.)
And, what if the Dems get 59 Senators? Rather than boot Joementum out of the caucus, will they instead beg and plead with him to make 60? Or, will they try to get some GOPer to turn… hmmm.
On the Texas state level, now…
Cornyn-Noriega: 57-43. Sorry, but I just don’t feel Rick Noriega burning up the bushes. Psst., Rick… like McCain, you have to run on something more than military service. (FiveThirtyEight.com lists this seat as strongly leaning Cornyn.)
Noriega has not translated his Lege service into a winning campaign message. Also, he does not have Mikal Watts' money, nor much from the DSCC, and also does not have Watts' other pluses, which I thought Noriega would have transcended by now.
Electoral-Vote’s Senate tracker covers Cornyn-Noriega and all other Senate races. Per its link to Texas Senate race polling, you can see why I remain bullish on Cornyn — but NOT personally, of course!
Dems regaining the Texas House? 40-60
And, here in Dallas County?
Valdez-Cannady for sheriff: (Again, a pet peeve — why do we elect sheriffs?) 50-50. This race boils down to what Dallas power broker John Wiley Price does or does not say or do for Valdez.
And, a commodities shot:
Oil below $100/bbl this year? 20-80.
The Guardian tells us OPEC, next week, will fight hard and plot strategy to keep it above $100/bbl.
And, on the personal side?
Odds of me voting Obama instead of McKinney? Less than 10 percent, and that's charitable.
Tune in next week!
OK, let’s keep this simple, and in percentages.
First, even though Palin is “started the concept,” that’s not the same as her getting the boot from the ticket.
So, Palin withdrawal/booting odds? 6 percent. With Schmuck Talk Express™ himself striving to quash Troopergate, she's not going away.
Obama vs. McCain? 55-45. I’ll tackle a guesstimate on third-party percentages and such starting in a week, but that will come; can’t have just the duopoly listed.
For more insight yourself, Electoral-Vote is invaluable.
FiveThirtyEight.com is better in some ways, with Intrade-type odds lines. It also isn’t afraid to critique things like ad quality from the presidential candidates.
Meanwhile, of course, the real Intrade is all about wagering, right? Well, some high muckety-mucks from various European Union countries and the EU bureaucracy have also For more insight yourself, placed their bets.
Cloture-proof Democratic Senate? 10-90. (I’m deliberately putting that on the low side, but, honestly, I don’t think it’s going to happen.)
And, what if the Dems get 59 Senators? Rather than boot Joementum out of the caucus, will they instead beg and plead with him to make 60? Or, will they try to get some GOPer to turn… hmmm.
On the Texas state level, now…
Cornyn-Noriega: 57-43. Sorry, but I just don’t feel Rick Noriega burning up the bushes. Psst., Rick… like McCain, you have to run on something more than military service. (FiveThirtyEight.com lists this seat as strongly leaning Cornyn.)
Noriega has not translated his Lege service into a winning campaign message. Also, he does not have Mikal Watts' money, nor much from the DSCC, and also does not have Watts' other pluses, which I thought Noriega would have transcended by now.
Electoral-Vote’s Senate tracker covers Cornyn-Noriega and all other Senate races. Per its link to Texas Senate race polling, you can see why I remain bullish on Cornyn — but NOT personally, of course!
Dems regaining the Texas House? 40-60
And, here in Dallas County?
Valdez-Cannady for sheriff: (Again, a pet peeve — why do we elect sheriffs?) 50-50. This race boils down to what Dallas power broker John Wiley Price does or does not say or do for Valdez.
And, a commodities shot:
Oil below $100/bbl this year? 20-80.
The Guardian tells us OPEC, next week, will fight hard and plot strategy to keep it above $100/bbl.
And, on the personal side?
Odds of me voting Obama instead of McKinney? Less than 10 percent, and that's charitable.
Tune in next week!
June 20, 2008
Science policy questions for Cornyn and Noriega
And, Eddie Bernice Johnson and her challenger, Fred Wood, while we’re at it.
From the folks who TRIED to bring us ScienceDebate 2008 during the presidential primary season, but for the pointed lack of cooperation of both Republican and Democratic candidates, with the input of readers, here is the list of seven questions related to science policy that every candidate for the House or Senate should be asked.
The basic categories are innovation, climate change, energy, education, water, research and health. Read the whole thing for a detailed question in each category and more, as well as links to learn how to fire science-related questions at your candidates.
A list of questions for the presidential candidates is forthcoming.
From the folks who TRIED to bring us ScienceDebate 2008 during the presidential primary season, but for the pointed lack of cooperation of both Republican and Democratic candidates, with the input of readers, here is the list of seven questions related to science policy that every candidate for the House or Senate should be asked.
The basic categories are innovation, climate change, energy, education, water, research and health. Read the whole thing for a detailed question in each category and more, as well as links to learn how to fire science-related questions at your candidates.
A list of questions for the presidential candidates is forthcoming.
May 10, 2008
How Rick Noriega can close the gap on John Cornyn
Both John McCain, against either Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and John Cornyn, against Rick Noreiga, are polling below 50 percent right now.
Especially with Cornyn being an incumbent, he and the GOP have to be worried about that.
Cornyn has vulnerabilities, beginning, of course, with Iraq. And every Democratic activist knows Noreiga’s story of National Guard service in Afghanistan, so I won’t go into the details other than to say this is a big wedge issue.
Cornyn’s also on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Noriega can hang the most controversial recent Supreme Court decisions, as well as the actions of former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, on him.
Cost overruns, bad troop quarters, the horrors of Walter Reed, etc., beyond being connected with the stupidity called Iraq, can also be laid at Cornyn’s feet given that he’s also on the Armed Services Committee.
And, Cornyn’s failure to get an immigration bill through the Senate is a personal legislative failing.
Other recent votes up for exploitation include his opposing S-CHIP expansion, his opposition to federal stem cell research, and his support of tax breaks for Big Oil.
With anger over rising gas prices, that last one is a no-brainer. With the recession hurting incomes, so is the first.
Especially with Cornyn being an incumbent, he and the GOP have to be worried about that.
Cornyn has vulnerabilities, beginning, of course, with Iraq. And every Democratic activist knows Noreiga’s story of National Guard service in Afghanistan, so I won’t go into the details other than to say this is a big wedge issue.
Cornyn’s also on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Noriega can hang the most controversial recent Supreme Court decisions, as well as the actions of former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, on him.
Cost overruns, bad troop quarters, the horrors of Walter Reed, etc., beyond being connected with the stupidity called Iraq, can also be laid at Cornyn’s feet given that he’s also on the Armed Services Committee.
And, Cornyn’s failure to get an immigration bill through the Senate is a personal legislative failing.
Other recent votes up for exploitation include his opposing S-CHIP expansion, his opposition to federal stem cell research, and his support of tax breaks for Big Oil.
With anger over rising gas prices, that last one is a no-brainer. With the recession hurting incomes, so is the first.
July 10, 2007
Rick Noriega looking official to seek nomination to oppose Cornyn
Texas State Rep. Rick Noriega will announce Thursday, June 12, that he is forming an exploratory committee to consider seeking the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate against John Cornyn. The announcement will be on the south side of the Texas Capitol in Austin at 11 a.m., at the Heroes of the Alamo monument.
From Noriega’s press release:
In other words, Noreiga, who has a solidly liberal record, has Cornyn “covered” on both the military/“war on terror” and the immigration/border issues, and a better option for Democrats to back than Mikal Watts. From what I know of Watts, I don’t think he would be the worst candidate in the world by any means, but Noreiga has legislative experience, and the two big “neutralizers” I mentioned above.
From Noriega’s press release:
Rick Noriega, 49, was first elected to the Texas House of Representatives in 1999. He has served on key committees throughout his tenure. This past session, he was a member of the Appropriations Committee and Budget and Oversight Chair for the Defense Affairs and State-Federal Relations Committee.
A 26-year veteran of our country’s armed forces, Noriega spent most of 2005 running training facilities in Afghanistan as part of the Texas National Guard. He missed the 2005 legislative session because of the assignment, and his wife Melissa served in his legislative seat during his absence.
Noriega also ran a National Guard border-security operation in Laredo, and Houston Mayor Bill White had him manage the housing of Hurricane Katrina evacuees at the George R. Brown Convention Center.
John Cornyn, the incumbent, is the least popular member of the Senate who faces reelection in 2008. The latest USA Survey poll, released June 19, 2007, showed that only 42 percent of Texans approve of the way Cornyn is handling his job, with 43 percent disapproving.
In other words, Noreiga, who has a solidly liberal record, has Cornyn “covered” on both the military/“war on terror” and the immigration/border issues, and a better option for Democrats to back than Mikal Watts. From what I know of Watts, I don’t think he would be the worst candidate in the world by any means, but Noreiga has legislative experience, and the two big “neutralizers” I mentioned above.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)