Manu gone — end of a Spurs era

With the retirement of Manu Ginobili, only Patty Mills, a reserve guard back then, and the returning vagabond Marco Belinelli, remain from the San Antonio Spurs last title team in 2013-14.

Danny Green was traded to Toronto along with Kawhi Leonard. Tony Parker refused to accept the same reality that Manu did and so went to Charlotte as a free agent. Tim Duncan retired a couple of years back. And, the others are even longer gone, role players moving to other roles with other teams for more money, or else retired. Even Boris Diaw and his slow motion dekes are officially gone from the league. (He has now made his retirement official, and Manu said goodbye back, complete with revealing a nickname.)

So, it is the end of an era, as shown by this classic picture of the Big Three.

Would Manu have hung one more year if Kawhi and his Uncle Dennis hadn't forced their way out of town? Possibly.

But now, with DeMar DeRozan for two years, and the touted Jakob Poeltl as well in that trade back from Toronto, Coach Popovich faces some type of quasi-rebuild, whatever he calls it.

Per an ESPN question, he's a HOFer on NBA career alone; more than 100 Win Shares primarily coming off the bench says that. With his international work, he is a slam dunk.

Let's remember him with some career highlights.

Of course, there's only one person suitable, besides Pops, to be the emcee for Manu's official retirement event.

Sir Charles, what's your calendar look like this fall?

Kawhi to Toronto

Well, the Malcontented One (and Uncle Dennis) are now out of the hair of Gregg Popovich and the rest of the San Antonio Spurs.

It's a blockbuster. Kawhi Leonard PLUS Danny Green for DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and 2019 Toronto first-rounder.

Winner? Not immediately sure who wins long-term if Toronto pulls off the unexpected and resigns Kawhi, but even then, it's not a slam dunk.

Winner for one year short-term? Toronto, especially with LeBron gone from Cleveland.

Kawhi Leonard (top)
DeMar DeRozan 

Especially in the postseason, this gives them a better set of competitors.

Winner long-term if Toronto can't resign Kawhi?

Spurs, of course, but not necessarily hugely. DeRozan does have one more year on his contract — two years, plus a third year player option — left. But, he's only two-thirds of Kawhi's value on Win Shares and one-half, if that, on VORP. If Pops can get him to play better D, that ups his value. But, that remains to be seen if it can be done.

Green is a moderate loss to the Spurs. They'll have less three-point shooting, but, he might have left the team as well after next year.

Poeltl is not a stretch 4 and never will be. But, he's a good rim defender and an efficient scorer. That said, a two-bigs offense with him and LaMarcus Aldridge would likely congest the floor and won't get too many minutes. Still, he gets out from a logjam with Jonas Valanciunas and others.

The draft choice is fairly highly protected, on slots 1-20. It reverts to two seconds if it is in that slot. Also interesting that Pops didn't get — didn't want?? — Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby.

Red Satan has a timeline of the whole process, saying the quad issue may go back to late in the 2015-16 year. From that year to 2016-17, his last full year, his 3-ball percentage and rebounding go down, his free throws go up. Minutes per game unchanged. He had a career year on 3-balls in 2015-16, so maybe don't read too much in that. How big was his left shoulder injury? Unknown, since it was his left.

Did Tony Parker inflame Spurs-Leonard tensions with his "my injury was worse" comment? Possibly, but by then Uncle Dennis was running the Kawhi Show, and maybe this needed to be said. That said, in this San Antonio Express-News detailed breakout of the end, it's clear that Manu Ginobili was calling him out about as much.

Red Satan tackles this in a more detailed backgrounder. It spells out — no real shock if one was reading between the lines — that Kawhi and Uncle Dennis think Pops "used" TP et al, even at that players-only meeting?

Did he? Somewhat, at times, I'm sure. But, the players called their own players-only meeting. Even if Pops was already pushing the needle a bit, these are veteran players on a veteran team. From the Spurs' POV, ESPN says they wish that, if Kawhi and Uncle Dennis were that worried, they'd have decided to take the whole year off, and do so from the start. In that case, of course, the team could have asked for a medical exemption and gotten a replacement. They wouldn't have pushed Kawhi as much — either Pops or the players — with that. But, Leonard refused, when asked multiple times.

Is Pops blameless? No. That said, I think he carries no more than, oh, say, a 25 percent burden if you're going to try to put percentages on it. And, I think he would fess up to that much. At the same time, I doubt that Uncle Dennis would fess up to even 25 percent, let alone more.

Deadspin adds gas to the fire with this semi-serious, semi-snarky take. Perhaps Uncle Dennis, as well as Kawhi himself, held himself out of much of the year to protect his free agent value. Doubling down on Deadspin, maybe they decided to have Kawhi play a few games, then a few more, so that he didn't look TOO injured.

And, will Manu be back for one more year? I think so. And, with Green gone, his 3-balling will get used.

Overall predictions?

Toronto wins Atlantic Division and No. 1 seed in East — at least, if Kawhi plays either halfway happy or contract year energetic.

Spurs stay in playoffs in West, probably about 4-5 slot. Pops may not be done wheeling and dealing yet, etc.

ESPN disagrees greatly. In its latest NBA rankings, it puts San Antonio ninth in the West. Gotta disagree. Nuggets haven't improved that much. Neither has Utah. Nor the JailBlazers. Green will be missed, yes. Red Satan overrates Kyle Anderson. And, DeRozan, barring his own injury, will be playing for a full season, even if at a lower level than Peak Kawhi.

Give Toronto a B-plus overall on the trade and give the Spurs a B for getting as much as they did when no market materialized with other teams. But, if the Sixers offering was legit and firm, per Red Satan's analysis, give the Spurs no more than a B for not taking it, as I think it was a better offer.

Give Kawhi and Uncle Dennis a C-plus. Maybe a B for legit medical concerns but a D-plus/C-minus for how they handled this.

And, long term? Who knows who's speaking for Kawhi when he says he doesn't want to go to the Lakers to be second fiddle to LeBron? I suspect Uncle Dennis. I suspect that this may be taken into consideration next year by some GMs dealing with his free agency.

Speculation the Drakes will flip Kawhi to the Lakers? Unlikely. A healthy Kawhi gives them a shot at the NBA Finals. Whatever package the Lake Show would offer back does not.

Could Pops have gotten better? Probably not. Despite early speculation, it appears the Sixers offered only one player — Robert Covington — along with multiple draft choices. I like Covington, and think he's a better all-around player than DeRozan, but, I can agree with Pop's point of view that that felt more like a rebuilding trade. (Oh, and I Googled well enough for this info that whatever Red Satan has behind its insider paywall about other trade possibilities is now no longer of interest to me.)

Here's a blockbuster trade idea:LeBron for Kawhi, straight up + tidbits as needed

The San Antonio Spurs are not one of the teams favored to land LeBron James, should the King opt out of his current contract with the Cavs, according to Vegas books. That hasn't stopped Spurs fans or Alamo City sports columnists from making noises about landing him.

(Don't forget to vote in my poll at right while you're here.)

And, why wouldn't it? Yea, it's not a high-shine city, but, it's a team with a high reputation. And LeBron's marketing power goes anywhere.

At the same time, what if the team's relationship with Kawhi Leonard turns out to be broken, as I have indicated I think it is, and Alamo City folks hope it's not? (It's broken, to the point Bruce Bowen is ripping Kawhi.)

To me, the solution is simple, if he would agree. Sign Kawhi to that supermax and then trade them, straight up, with LeBron opting into his contract, or rather, signing a new one that must, from the Spurs POV, be at least two years long.

From Leonard's POV, it gets him to a new place, one where he can be a clear team leader, and in the weaker Eastern Conference.

For the King? Simple. This Spurs team is better than his current Cavs one. (That's assuming that Cavs GM Altman's "make nice" claims don't pan out.)

Simple comps show that.

And, even though we are pretty sure now that Kawhi won't agree to an extension, I still make this deal if I'm the Spurs. (If I'm Pops and R.C. Buford, I stop believing that, unlike LaMarcus Aldridge a year ago, I can sweet-talk Kawhi back.

Danny Green is a younger, starting, better defending version of Kyle Korver, or a better version of George Hill. (But he may go FA; he has opted out.

Aldridge is a much better scoring, even rebounding, near-even defending version of Tristan Thompson.

Tony Parker becomes a shoot-first combo guard with James and is a smarter version of JR Smith. Parker, like Green, has opted out, but I think he'll find the offers aren't there.

Manu Ginobili, assuming he stays unretired with the chance to play with LeBron, is a smarter, more levelheaded Rodney Hood.

And Pau Gasol is a poor man's Kevin Love on offense, and no worse than him overall on D. (That said, Option B is throwing in Gasol to make salaries match if there's no Kawhi extension.)

And, Pops stays coaching to run that team.

If the Cavs insist on a pot sweetener? Either next year's second round pick, or next year's first for next year's Cavs second if that's not enough. (Those are just starting points for negotiation.) Or a back-end player who's not pricey, like, say, Dejounte Murray, if salaries stay within 125 percent, if Pau's not  part of the deal.

As for the Vegas sports books thinking the Dubs are odds-on to land the King? That's stupid. Whether through massive salary dumps for a free agency signing, or massive trades, that would be a huge chemistry change.

OK, if Kawhi won't do an extension, and LeBron just does a new one-plus-optout, does either team do this trade?

If I'm the Spurs, yes, because, contra current-level Pops and RC, I admit it's broken. And, I'm hoping that LeBron will extend.

If I'm the Cavs, yes, especially if I can throw another contract of my own back if Pau is included with Kawhi, and I can get a draft choice, too. I do this if it's the best way to tank.

Will Spurs trade Kawhi Leonard?Here's four possible new locales

Kawhi Leonard — gone
from San Antonio?

Is the San Antonio tenure of all-NBA forward Kawhi Leonard at an end, with his not only not playing in the playoffs but literally not even showing up, as I have discussed in detail?

As Woj noted a few days ago, this is surely the Spurs' No. 1 issue, and one they will likely address as soon as coach Gregg Popovich is at a reasonable point in the process of mourning his wife's passing. The options are three – trade him, keep him but without a supermax extension, or given him the full palooza. (That said, per some new Woj, the relationship may not be broken.)

I honestly don't see a supermax, given what Pops said after game two against the Warriors, linked in my original piece. And, I honestly don't see Kawhi wanting to say without one.

So, that leaves a trade.

(Update, June 15: Kawhi, according to Yahoo's Shams Charania, wants out. On Twitter, Woj says the Lake Show is his preferred destination.

Update, June 19: Leonard and Pops finally had that long-awaited meeting. And ... Kawhi said he'd been deliberately dodging Pops and didn't like either Pops or Tony Parker for comments he felt weren't supportive of him. 

Lemme see ... the TP comments came after that player meeting shortly before the playoffs, the one where he said "my injury's worse"? Well, at least on paper, it WAS worse. Surprised he didn't throw Manu under the bus when Ginobili essentially said "He's dead to me for this season."

This is broken. Trade his ass. If he's hide-bound to go to LA in a year, trade him, even if not to either the Lake Show or the Clips. Get what you can.)

ESPN offers four possible good options, including the one Dwyane Wade first mentioned — the Celtics.

(Update, June 13: Red Satan has now expanded this to seven options in a new post, including two different Celtics trades, and tweaked the suggested return from the Sixers and Lakers.)

The other three? The Lake Show, Wade's own Heat, and the Sixers.

IMO, the Sixers offers the best deal for both teams. Markelle Fultz gets out from potential ongoing scrutiny in Philly and improves the Spurs backcourt a lot, if he gets anywhere near his potential. Dario Saric adds somebody younger to the team, with a fair upside, especially if he can play a stretch 5 in the occasional small ball lineup.. Jerryd Bayless is a nothingburger, really, but would offer additional depth at guard if Tony Parker joins Manu Ginobili in retiring sooner rather than later, and besides, the ESPNers say that Brandon Paul should go back to the Sixers. But, the Lakers' first-round draft choice is big.

I call it medium risk, high reward for both teams. (The revised version has Covington instead of Saric; it would be no worse.)

Second in order of favor? Kawhi and Patty Mills to the Heat.

Coming back? Goran Dragic headlines a package of Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo.

Even more than the Sixers trade, this makes the Spurs younger, setting aside Dragic.

ESPN says he would mesh well with LaMarcus Aldridge, as well as dramatically improving them at the point. Well, yes, but ...

He's never been fantastic on D and he's been in the league a full decade.

Let's look at the rest of the package.

Adebayo, a rookie with upside, would be a nice addition. But, the Heat would have to decide whether they want to trade him given production and mindset falloff from Hassan Whiteside. Winslow is nice, though I'm not as sold on him as ESPN is, and I note he lost minutes this year compared to last year. Not good for a third-year player. Richardson might be a younger, more athletic Danny Green.

Risk is medium to medium-high for the Spurs. Return is probably the same.

Risk is medium for Miami, maybe medium-low if Whiteside can be encouraged to get his act together.

Third? Kawhi to Boston for Kyrie Irving plus Boston's first-round pick, and whatever else Pops can get.

First, though he has no no-trade, would Kyrie like this? More immediately first, his knee has to check out as well as Kawhi's tendon. Second, would Danny Ainge do this?

Fourth? The Lake Show. Kawhi straight up for Brandon Ingram. (The revised version has three players and would be better for the Spurs.)

No. I'm not that impressed by Ingram. Lakers gotta throw me more than that.

From the Spurs POV? Focusing only on desirability, not likelihood, I give the Sixers trade an A, the Heat one a B/B+, the Celtics a B and the Lakers a D.

And, in the spirit of that, I offer a fifth, with two options.

The Pelicans, as ESPN notes here, need to decide whether to give Boogie Cousins a supermax, or some lesser extension, or let him walk a year from now.

Rather than resigning Cousins for a mid-level contract and trading him to another team for a wing player and a draft pick, it would be a resigned Cousins plus the Pellies first-rounder going to San Antonio for Kawhi. If that seems a bit high, the Spurs can throw in somebody like Brandon Paul, or give back their second-rounder.

That drastically changes the Spurs on both sides of the ball, no doubt. They become slower at times on offense, and more problematic defensively.

But, a healthy Cousins could hit the three-ball. He rebounded and blocked shots.

I give this one a C.

==

Sidebar: I wouldn't be totally surprised if Pops retires. I think odds, to the degree I would estimate odds, are against, but it wouldn't surprise me.

==

Sidebar 2: ESPN reports on the background of the semi-split. It notes changes in Kawhi's sports agency team are part of the problem. Bigger problem, some might say, is his Uncle Dennis. His rejection of a new Nike contract, for example, to me makes him sound like a junior version of Daddy Ball. And, we all know how brilliant LaVar Ball is. Just ask him.

==

Sidebar 3/May 9 update: ESPN suggests another trade, with Leonard and Gay going to the Raptors for DeRozan and and other pieces. I would rate this a C.

#Spurs gone? And then #Kawhi gone?Yes and hopefully yes

Kawhi Leonard: Headed
out of Dodge, or rather,
out of San Antone?

Game 1 of the first round of the NBA playoffs showed the San Antonio Spurs have little chance of beating the Golden State Warriors without Kawhi Leonard.

(Update: See my new post about possible trade destinations for Leonard if the Spurs pull the trigger and also see the poll at right to vote on that. That said, per some new verschnizzle from Woj, the relationship may not be broken after all.

And, as of the end of the NBA Finals, it became very clear that Woj's new verschnizzle was wrong.)

Update, June 15: Kawhi, according to Yahoo's Shams Charania, wants out.

Update, July 5: Via Yahoo, ESPN's Michael Wright said Kawhi hid from Spurs staff when they came to visit him in New York. Rather:

There was a point during his rehab process in New York that some of the Spurs brass went out to see him in New York. As soon as those guys arrived to the building, Kawhi’s people grabbed him and sequestered him to another part of the building. And so the Spurs’ people couldn’t even see him.

That's just chickenshit.  It's more chickenshit on the part of Kawhi's uncle Dennis Robertson, but it's chickenshit enough on the part of Kawhi.

In addition, per Zach Lowe, potential trade partners have no idea how healthy he is. And, in light of Haberstroh, have no idea if they would get to talk to Leonard and his team even if the Spurs allowed it! I'm kind of like one Spurs fan on that Deadspin link. Park Kawhi's ass on the bench. So bad that he rusts. Treat him like Joakim Noah.

Back to the original.

It also showed an attitude issue.

Leonard, out most of the year with a quad tendon problem — playing briefly after a conservative, quite conservative, Spurs medical staff cleared him, then sitting himself for the rest of the season — couldn't even be bothered to come to Oakland to be with the rest of ... what might or might not be his team right now, mentally, and may or may not be his team physically next season. That's even as Tony Parker, with a seemingly worse quad tendon injury, healed even quicker and without physical — or psychological — complications.

Steph Curry, with an MCL knee problem, was on the Dubs' bench. Kawhi was absent. (And, no, Kawhi wasn't even back in San Antonio; he's basically been separate from the team for much of the latter part of the year, though not all, since benching himself.) Marc Spears at The Undefeated is also asking "Where's Kawhi?" And

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich admits the injury has been perplexing. And, on this ESPN video, Amir Elhassan says he had an injury misdiagnosed a couple of years ago. This Twitterer talks more about that 2012 injury.

Let's talk more about this. (Click the link above for two more pages of talk.)

First, his own doctors obviously cleared him for the nine games earlier this season, otherwise, he wouldn't have played then, skippy.

Second, if he's not going to play this postseason at all, even needing to be in pre-pre-season shape for next preseason? That's four months away. He could be with the team on the bench, or first row courtside, for the playoffs.

Third, that said, his 2012 injury is connected to some degree to this year's by type, but on the other leg.

On the other hand, per Skippy the wonder Twitterer (account suspended, that's why you don't see the info now) I don't recall a massive brouhaha over him being misdiagnosed, though it eventually was rediagnosed as tendinopathy, which is more serious than tendonitis.

Meanwhile, if we're going to Reddit, skippy the wonder Twitterer, here's the Spurs Reddit with some better discussion, IMO.

(Update: At The Undefeated, Brando Simeo Starkley also tries to defend Kawhi. And also, in my opinion, fails.

First, the Tony Parker angle (settling aside the issue of whether or not TP was throwing passive-aggressive shade at Kawhi), He never was THAT fast, first, and second, he's got a lot more miles on older wheels. Hell, before his injury last year, during the regular season, I said Pops should bench him.

Second, the "Spurs cleared him to come back"? As I pointed out on my first point to Skippy the wonder Twitterer, so did Kawhi's own doctors/trainers/medical team.

Third, on the blame issue? If not Kawhi, maybe that team of his. Yes, he and/or they may be right to see Isaiah Thomas as a cautionary example.

We're still at the "not part of team for the playoffs" issue. Starkey doesn't address that, not even in the light of Pops' wife passing away.

For that matter, I don't know what Kawhi thinks. He hasn't touched his official Twitter account for 3 years. His "official" Instagram is by his sister and has just 11 posts.

Further sidebar: Just last August, the Saints fired two orthopedists who worked for both them and the Pelicans after a player misdiagnosis. If Pops and Buford thought their medical staff had done a similar screw-up, they'd be firing people too.

But, Kawhi's teamside absence indicates to me that Woj's earlier hints of discord are true – and cut both ways. Or three ways. Per Manu Ginobili's comments in February, I think a fair chunk of the team, not just Pops and R.C. Buford, have some issues.

Pops has now officially written him off for the playoffs, it seems. And, in video at that link, he bluntly, in best Pops style, refuses to answer a question about Kawhi's value as moral support being on the bench.

And, chocolate donut Twitter's Marcus Johnson has shown he's even more an idiot as a basketball commenter than he is a Hillbot. He saluted Kawhi:

I'm with Kawhi on this one. We all saw what happened to Isaiah after the Celtics team doctors pushed him to play hurt. Kawhi needs to protect his career. If he plays now & his injury gets worse, fans will be the first to try & ship him out. Do what's best for you. Cuz they will

— Marcus H. Johnson (@marcushjohnson) April 14, 2018

Yep, Hillbot dumb on basketball too.

Hey, Marcus? Spurs doctors pushed nothing. Note the "very conservative" above on hist treatment. (It also describes the likes of you as seen by the likes of me politically, so you should be able to get that.)

Now, back to Kawhi.

First, the current series. No Kawhi kills the Spurs offense, especially against a team like the Dubs. Patty Mills is the only guard fast and skilled enough to be a drive-and-kick player. Manu and TP aren't fast enough. Dejounte Murray and others aren't good enough.

Danny Green is the only good three-baller among the top seven of the rotation outside of Mills, and he's not the type who creates his own shot. That means a lot of slow dump-and-kick halfcourt sets revolving around Lamarcus Aldridge. Rudy Gay is an OK one, but he's past the point in his career at creating his own shot on a three-ball in general, and definitely not against a team like the Warriors.

Defensively, it's worse. The team has no great perimeter defenders. Kyle Anderson is decent inside. Aldridge is above average. Pau Gasol is near the end of the line. None of the three is fast on rotations, or fast enough to guard perimeter players on switches.

I'd be surprised if the Warriors don't sweep.

Second, to Kawhi not being in Oakland for moral support? If it is indeed possible he's out for the entire playoffs, then yet more rehabbing in New York, as he allegedly is doing, is unnecessary. Period. End of story.

There is no "I" in team is a cliché, yes, but with a grain or four of truth behind it.

The big tell? If he's not in the house at the AT&T Center for Game 3.

That leads to part the third ...

That said, will the Spurs move him in the offseason? D-Wade has already says yes, and says, Celtics the team. Who Boston would send back, I don't know. Would Pops and Buford want multiple draft choices that Danny Ainge has hoarded, maybe even throwing another player back, and go the rebuild route? Indeed, I said repeatedly on Twitter the last few weeks of the NBA season that the Spurs should tank and get in the lottery this year.

Basketball Reference says the Clips would be interested, but who do they have to offer back?

I mean, Parker is 35. Aldridge is 32. Green is 30. Manu of course is 40, and Pau is 37. If you trade Kawhi, then trade Aldridge as well for a team wanting a more traditional center, and see if you can get something for Gasol for a team wanting a backup stretch 4. Getcha a bunch of draft choices plus young players and get lucky if you can. And tank. Beyond that, if Elhassan is right and this injury is also worse than thought — but with the psychological side a factor there — don't the Spurs have to look to move him if they think he's got some permanent limitation?

From the Spurs POV, moving him might make sense psychologically, just as much as the Cavs moving Kyrie Irving. But, Kawhi will have to pass a physical AND look mentally committed to Boston or whomever for a trade to come off with any value to the Spurs.

At the same time, some people have commented on the Spurs' difficulty signing free agents, and the idea that no Kawhi would make that worse. Well, the Spurs have been good enough at retaining their own when getting lucky in the draft they haven't needed a lot of big-name free agents.

The real question is how free agents potentially coming to Alamo City would read the Kawhi-vs-et al showdown.

Tim Duncan retires; Spurs better off?

Yes, it sounds like heresy to say the 2016-17 San Antonio Spurs may be better off without the Big Fundamental, Tim Duncan, after he announced his retirement.

So, call me a heretic.

First, I'm going to assume that his right knee remained baulky.

Second, I'm going to state for the record, not just assume, that Pau Gasol in current health and age will be a better defensive as well as offensive player. No, peak Pau was not peak Timmeh. But TD was NOT a rim protector last year and Pau will at least be 50 percent of one. Yes, Duncan has the third best defensive win shares, says Basketball-Reference, in league history. But Pau is in the top 60, and in general, is modestly on the plus side.

Yes, a healthy Timmeh was great at defending the pick-and-roll and neither Gasol nor Lamarcus Aldridge are. But, TD wasn't fully healthy last year and might well not have been, at least in hoops terms, for the year ahead. Gasol is still a good shot blocker and at least an OK defender.

Third, I'm going to note Pau's at least as good a passer, and a better outside shooter.

Fourth, I'll note for the record that, between regular season and playoffs, Gasol has 15,000 fewer miles on the odometer. Even though Gasol had played just four fewer seasons, that's the equivalent of almost five seasons, really.

Fifth, Gasol is at least a vague 3-ball threat, with a higher effective shooting percentage, whereas Duncan was a nothingburger outside the arc.

But, beyond that?

This lets Kawhi Leonard make the team his, especially if Pops makes sure Tony Parker gets that message.

I assume Manu Ginobili is back with the Spurs .... and as productive as late last season. Can Patty Mills step up more? And, what's the long-term answer at the point? How much of a pay cut will TP accept after 2017-18? Will Pops stick? I think he will.

That said, had the Spurs not landed Gasol, TD might have come back. And he would have made the team better than one without either big.

Oh, you and I will see a more uptempo Spurs team next year.

Did Timmeh, Manu, Pops? and TP? of the Spurs just get a retirement gift?

Steph Curry is supposed to be out a minimum of two weeks with a sprained knee suffered Sunday against the Rockets.

This means he could be back for the Western Conference finals round, if the Warriors get past the L.A. Clippers (I presume) in the second round.

That said, given their own very strong season, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge and coach Gregg Popovich of the San Antonio Spurs, while not wanting to win this way, have to move to the head of the line in the Western Conference, right?

An easy win against the Grizz, with time to rest before playing the Thunder in a series that (sorry, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook) shouldn't go more than six. That said, we'll see how Billy Donovan as head coach vs. Scotty Brooks does in a matchup like this.

That said, assuming the Clipps beat the TrailBlazers in their first round series, could they beat the Warriors? I'll still give Golden State odds on that, but that's a series quite likely to go seven, no matter who wins. Sure, with Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and others, and Shaun Livingston a decent replacement, you can't bet hard against the Dubs. (That said, don't expect the emotion of Sunday's second half against the Rockets to be a constant.)

And, that's music for the Riverwalk in San Antone.

Meanwhile, if Los Spurs do take it all, I assume Timmeh and Manu, at least, are riding off into the sunset faster than Peyton Manning, if they have any brains. The sixth title would tie them with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, and go one up on Kobe Bryant.

What about Pops? He's 67, and the sixth title would put him behind just Red Auerbach and Phil Jackson.

At the same time, while Curry this year had the eighth-best season ever, the Warriors won a year ago with him outside the top 50. On the third hand, when he had more ankle problems in the past, they never could go higher than the second round of the playoffs.

My NBA playoff preview

First, it should be obvious who's the favorite to win it all. Second, I'm going against Vegas books for my No. 2, and also going with narrower odds overall, using percentages rather than odds.

That said, let's jump in.

Steph Curry

Golden State: 35 percent. As long as Splash Brothers Steph and Klay stay healthy, and Draymond Green stays emotionally involved, they're the definite favorite. Getting Festus Ezeli back from knee surgery will help on the few occasions they need extra bodies against a big man to supplement Green playing the 5, and normal center Andrew Bogut.

Why not higher? Well, the No. 2 team in the Western Conference had a near-record year of its own, and if anybody has the keys to beating the Dubs, it's Pops and his Spurs.

Klay Thompson

Plus, the Warriors struggled down the stretch, including a home loss to Boston. How much of that was unspoken pressure over the record chase, how much of it was running low on gas, and how much of it was, with the Celtics, a team matching up well with them and figuring them out, I'm not sure. But, it is a bit of concern. In other words, the Dubs deserve to be the favorite, but not necessarily an odds-on favorite. On the flip side, they're still a relatively young team, and they're deep.

That said, speaking of No. 2 in the West ...

UPDATE, April 25: Let's just put that Dubs coronation on hold and with Curry's bum knee, move the Spurs to the top of the heap.

San Antonio: 25 percent. Yes, I rank them higher than the Cavs, even though, barring massive upset, they'll have to face the Warriors one round earlier than Cleveland will, if we should get a repeat of last year's Finals.

Kawhi Leonard's taken another step forward, LaMarcus Aldridge has fit will with the team, and Manu Ginobili has bounced back from his surgery. Should they face the Dubs in the conference finals, Patty Mills will need to show more of what he did in the Spurs' one win, and Danny Green will be big, too. Down side is how much, or little, not just Tim Duncan but Tony Parker may have in the tank.

Cleveland: 14 percent. Why so low? Sure, the Eastern Conference playoffs won't be as tough as the West, but is Cleveland that much head-and-shoulders above the rest? I'm not so sure, especially given that the Cavs, after changing coaching horses midstream, were actually worse under Tyronn Lue at 27-14 than David Blatt at 30-11. King James, the GM of Oz behind the curtain, may not like that, but facts are facts. Given the struggles of both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving on D, which usually becomes more important in the playoffs, there's some chance this team doesn't even represent the Eastern Conference. The likes of a Kemba Walker could torch most that team, both mentally and physically.

Oklahoma City: 11 percent. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant continue to pace this team, and no guard in the NBA can stop Russ when he's on. But, the Dubs or the Spurs can put multiple players on him, or on Durant, to minimize one of the two options, knowing the Thunder fall off offensively after that. Trading out Scotty Brooks for Billy Donovan may help in the playoffs this year. Will it help in retaining Durant in the offseason?

Los Angeles Clippers: 5 percent. Unlike an old newspaper friend, I'm not convinced that DeAndre Jordan will be a great offensive threat to a small-ball Warriors offense which can, in any case, go big at the five as needed, and with depth. Chris Paul is a very good team leader, but a half a gear behind the top guards in the league. A relatively rested Blake Griffin may also help, if he doesn't mentally combust.

That leaves 10 percent for the rest of the league. Maybe 2.5 points each for Boston and Charlotte, whom I both like in the East, and 5 percent for the other seven playoff teams from both conferences combined.

What do the Spurs need to do for 2014-15?

Before the NBA Finals were even done, there was plenty of talk about the Miami Heat needing to upgrade its Big Three to a Big Four, with Carmelo Anthony coming to Miami on a max contract — IF the Big Three of LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade would all exercise their contract opt-out rights and come back for less, and other players would adjust their contracts as needed.

But, the San Antonio Spurs have their own needs, with several free agents, including Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner, and Patty Mills top the list.

Assuming Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are down with rejoining coach Gregg Popovich for one more run, which Tony Parker says will be the case, the next question is, how much will it cost for the other players?

Since Kawhi Leonard is the future of the Spurs, and with just one year on his contract, you have to keep him at any reasonable cost, and plan this offseason's resigning of in-house free agents in line with that. The Spurs have July 1-Oct. 31 to do an extension. I think, rather than a full four years, both sides will agree to extend 2015 by two years, with more money for next year, plus the two years beyond. Look for three years at, say, 5/7/8 on the yearly millions. That still gives Leonard, in a post-Duncan world, plenty of years to do two full-bore free agent contracts. Bonner? If you're lucky, he'll accept a "for the team" cut from $3M to 2.5. Diaw, you hope will resign for not more than $5M, compared to this year's $4.7. Neither Bonner nor Diaw should get more than two years. And, if NBA rules allow it, tearing up Leonard's current contract and giving him a two-year extension at $5M per would be good.

Mills? He's gone, Spurs fans, in all likelihood. He reinvented and rejuvenated himself, and has already made noise about wanting to start somewhere. So, Pops and R.C. Buford have to ask if they're comfortable going back to Cory Joseph as Parker's backup or not. The Spurs have the option of giving Marco Belinelli the keys to the second unit. Given that both Joseph and Belinelli are in the last year of contracts, I suspect there's going to be some strong preseason competition set up by Pops.

Danny Green has one year left. It's his chance to show how much he can improve as a dribbler and a passer.

So, the Spurs' goals? Resign Bonner and Diaw. Look for some filler option as a swingman or an inside banger. See if Joseph and/or Belinelli can pick up a reasonable part of the Mills slack.

#Spurs win Game 1, with good signs for #NBAFinals

Good sign No. 1? That's the health of Tony Parker and his ankle injury. If not 100 percent, he surely looked 85 percent. And, with an extra day of rest again until Sunday's game 2, should remain OK.

Related to that, the Spurs depth at the point helped. Patty Mills looked good and Marco Belinelli did nothing embarrassing, other than a couple of turnovers.

Good sign No. 2? The Spurs won despite all those turnovers. Even with the heat problems, you can't blame a slippery ball. Those third quarter turnovers, half of them were on dumb passing decisions. Any that were related to a slippery ball, from trying to do too much in traffic? It's called making adjustments.

So, let's call that semi-bad sign No. 1. The Spurs were forcing a lot of stuff last night. They know better, or should.

Good sign No. 3? To quote Charles Barkley? Mannnnuuuuuuu! Manu Ginobili was a sparkplug in the first quarter and had a great all-around game. If he's bringing that to the Finals, it's all Spurs.

Good sign No. 4? The Spurs depth showing up in the heat. In contrast to LeBron James cramping up, the Spurs were able to keep a lot of players fresh. Above all, Tim Duncan was able to stay on the bench well into the fourth quarter because Tiago Splitter suddenly realized he can score.

Other good signs for San Antonio? One is that, with Mario Chalmers and his funk, if it continues PG advantage is huge. Another is that they did all of this with little offense from Kawhi Leonard; if he gets untracked, that's all the more.

On the Heat side, Ray Allen still looks dangerous. Rashard Lewis had a cameo of his old self again, but doesn't seem to be a consistent threat, and Chris Bosh was OK overall, but with a questionable attempt or two of a non-corner 3; that's not his shot. Shane Battier got a few minutes off the bench, but contributed little.

Notice that I didn't mention Dwyane Wade until now? He was solid, like most of this year's playoffs and unlike last year's Finals. However, he was unable to take over the game when LBJ went out. If James is down at all in Game 2, Wade's the key to the game. 

And, what will LBJ's condition be? I heard Shannon Sharpe say on ESPN Radio that he thinks the cramps could carry over. And, Grantland, as part of breaking down Game 1, talks about "Crampgate."

So, there we go. Overall, signs look good for the Spurs, other than the mass of turnovers. Count on Gregg Popovich to beat that into the ground. 

But, don't get too confident too easily. Duncan isn't going 9-10 every night. Ginobili, while he hopefully won't revert to last year's Finals, won't always be as good as Game 1. Yes, Boris Diaw, like Leonard, didn't score much, but he did a number of other things very well that he might not do quite so well night in and night out.

Finally, I thought LBJ played "chippy" on the physicality long before almost getting a flagrant foul call. If Jeff Van Gundy thinks Splitter was flopping there, he can eat my shorts. Related to that, it's long been my opinion that LBJ plays at times like a junior Shaq, especially on dropping his shoulder and throwing it.

Related to that, that's why I don't like three-person broadcast booths in basketball. It's hard enough to add a third voice in baseball or football; basketball's pace just doesn't provide room.

ABC should can SVG, and move Mark Jackson back out. Maybe get a replacement for Breen at play by play, too. Make Jalen Rose the color guy; bring him out from the studio and Bill Simmons' shackles.

#NBAFinals: we have our rematch; will #Spurs turn the tables on the #Heat?

Well, after a hard-fought overtime battle, the San Antonio Spurs have dispatched the Oklahoma City Thunder (not helped by a number of turnovers by stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook) and so, we get a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, won by the Miami Heat in a seven-game thriller.

The Spurs face one question going into Game 1 on Thursday - that's the health of Tony Parker and his ankle injury, after he missed the second half of tonight's game. I'll assume for now that he's at or near 100 percent in five days.

What's changed this year from last year, then?

First, the Spurs have home court this year, versus Miami last year. 

Second, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich has rested his starters even more this year than last year. Since both teams are "veteran," but San Antonio arguably more so than Miami, this helps them more. Not that Eric Spolestra didn't do the same, especially with Dwyane Wade, but Pops did it more yet, with more players. In fact, not a single Spurs starter clocked more than 30 minutes a game in the regular season this year.

Third, Kawhi Leonard, with a year more of experience, adds more on offense, and more on defense to help guard LeBron James.

Fourth, the Spurs added depth this year, with Marco Belinelli and Patty Mills. 

Fifth, Miami's three-point artists are a year older, and one less. Shane Battier's been semi-nonexistent overall in the playoffs, and on defense, too. Rashard Lewis had a cameo of his old self against the Pacers, but don't count on him against the Spurs. Ray Allen seems timeless, but, he's probably not. And, of course, Mike Miller is gone. James Jones and Michael Beasley are NOT enough to pick up the slack.

And, because of all of that, I'm sure Pops has new ideas on how to handle Chris Bosh in corner 3 territory, among other things.

So, assuming TP's ankle is good to go?

I say Spurs in six. And, I didn't even mention Tim Duncan until here at the end. Or the one-of-a-kind Manu Ginobili.

Spurs in six.

The Lakers are tanking quite nicely without trying

While still being idiots.

The idiocy for the Los Angeles Lakers was getting greedy on the then-rumored rumored trade in the air between them and the Cleveland Cavaliers six weeks ago, which would have swapped disgruntled Lakers center Pau Gasol and currently disgrunted and temporarily suspended Cavaliers (and former Lakers) center Andrew Bynum. 

But, noooo .... 

They wanted even more from Cleveland, asking for Dion Waiters as part of the mix, as well as possibly at least some of the draft choice swapping Cleveland did with the Bulls.

So, Cleveland sent him to the Bulls for Luol Deng instead. Chicago did what LA could have done, and dumped him for cap purposes.

It was clear at that time that Laker management (Jim Buss? surely he's more in charge than putative GM Mitch Kupchak) thought the Lakers had a legit shot at the playoffs.

Well, after that, Kobe Bryant broke his leg, Steve Nash has pretty much remained Dead Man Walking, and the supporting cast has sucked so bad that the Lakers are now officially at the bottom of the Western Conference.

There's still four teams in the East that suck more, but, if not Andrew Wiggins or Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker or somebody else could fall in their laps.

That said, playing without Gasol might have pushed them a spot or two lower and made things even better. Plus, the Lakers would have done what the Bulls did, only one better, and dodged not only the cap, but a repeat violators' tax.

Instead, the Lakers and their fans still face suckitude, without giving themselves the necessary reality check, and with rebuilding that much harder.

Add to that the fact that Gasol doesn't like the current coaching situation, though he'd like to stay in LA, and other issues, and have fun Mitch. Or Jim.

Meanwhile, Kupchak says there's no regret over the Nash deal. I suppose he says the same thing over Kobe's whopper of an extension, with Kobe fixing to become the A-Rod of the NBA. Since the Lakers are the Yankees of the NBA, that kind of makes sense. That said, Kobe is arguably not the same villian as A-Rod, just the same lead anchor on rebuilding.)

Meanwhile, as Gasol's comments indicate, Mike D'Antoni pretty much sucks as current coach of the mess, Kupchak is pretty much castrated by now, and Jim Buss is on his way to being the Al Davis of the NBA or something.

Rebuilding differs in each major sport. Shorter max contracts in the NBA is the one saving grace of the Lakers right now.

As for other meanwhiles?

With the Lakers and Celtics both guaranteed to suck for two or three more years, ditto on the Knicks, nobody knowing about the TV wattage of the Clipps, and OKC joining San Antonio in small market teams commissioners love to hate at playoff time, I'm sure new NBA head honcho Adam Silver is just relishing this year's NBA Finals. That said, Miami as a big-market team didn't magically lift things last year. So, maybe baseball isn't alone in postseason TV struggles. And, the Super Bowl may even have hit a peak.

Well, Miami could well still win the East. But, what if they don't? A Thunder-Pacers Finals will certainly move the dials for TV watching — down.

#Popovich - worst #Spurs coaching in years

Update, June 20:  Great game 7, but I'm again going to criticize coaching genius Gregg Popovich. A few questionable substitutions and rotations, especially way too much Danny Green in the second half, when other than the 1 lucky three, he had nothing. Boris Diaw had been effective in the first; why not play him more?


Dan Wetzel gets it half right, or a bit more, in high column describing how San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich's questionable substitutions and no-foul strategy at the end of regulation and during overtime of Game 6 of the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat cost his team the game, but I don't think even Wetzel goes far enough on the man that ESPN's Bill Simmons is ready to put up as the fourth face on the Mount Rushmore of NBA coaching genius, along with Red Auerbach, Pat Riley and Phil Jackson.

Let's start earlier in the fourth quarter.

Despite how Pops allegedly isn't a sentimentalist, I can't think of any other explanation for why he left Manu Ginobili in the game as long as he did earlier in the fourth. I mean, everybody else in the world could see that he had become the Miami Turnover Machine. And, related to that, why did he leave Boris Diaw on the bench as long as he did into the fourth when, unlike Manu, Boris was putting together his second consecutive solid game, and also, unlike Manu, doing a better job of "playing within himself"?

From there, then, we've set the stage for Wetzel's further analysis.

It concerns Pops' subbing in and out for Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, mainly, subbing out for Duncan and not getting him back in on two key occasions that let Chris Bosh get key rebounds.

And Wetzel won't let him off easy.

If Indiana's Frank Vogel is shredded for pulling out 7-foot Roy Hibbert and leaving the rim exposed for LeBron in a critical loss in the Eastern Conference finals, then Popovich can be questioned for going with Diaw over Duncan with the title on the line.

That said, per my thought, both Diaw and Duncan should have been in there, and Manu OUT.  

And, Yahoo's Ball Don't Lie blog points out it could have been worse, on the substitutions. It was illegal, the blog says, to put Duncan back in the game while refs were reviewing Ray Allen's shot to make sure it was a 3. My question: did Pops know that and do it anyway, know that but forget in the heat of battle, or not know that? Neither 1 nor 3 is good, if true. (And I'm guessing that's a technical if refs catch it.)

From there, it goes on to the issue of Pops refusing to foul when Miami was in a situation where it had to shoot 3s, when Bosh grabbed that offensive board late in regulation.

Pops said that is simply not his policy.

He comes off making it look like it's not macho enough to deliberately foul when you're up by 3 rather than try to play "hard-nosed," or whatever phrase he would use, defense to lock down on 3-ballers.

Well, no, it's very smart, and it's not "weak" or worse. I guess this is Pops the Air Force guy slipping through. And, if that idea of macho is going to override his brains on a regular basis, that alone is reason enough to keep him off Mount Rushmore.

And, there's good reason to say that.

Since the Spurs' last title, in 2007, as the Spurs' own Danny Green demonstrated in the first five games of the Finals, the NBA world has changed a lot, especially on the 3-ball. Therefore, if you're such an alleged genius, you should change how you defend the 3-ball. That includes using the foul as a strategic defensive tool.

Wetzel also faults Pops for not calling a time out after Miami's last points, with 8.8 ticks in overtime left. I'll expand on that and go back to my original complaint.

In addition to his poor substitutions earlier in the game, I think Pops had poor use of timeouts in trying, or not trying, to keep the Miami crowd from getting back in the game as the Heat made its comeback run. Maybe that's more "macho" by Pops. If so, it's another #fail.

Kelly Dwyer notes one other occasion when Pops could have used a time out and didn't.

He also notes that the Spurs were gassed at times in the second half, and definitely in OT. LBJ's block on Duncan is testimony to that. That "old" issue, which looked like Manu put it to rest in Game 5 and Duncan in the first half of Game 6, may be alive and kicking.

But, that too gets back to Pops. In addition to substitution questions and time out use questions in the fourth quarter, it includes game pace issues. As in slowing it down, and getting his team to recognize that.

And, no, I don't expect the Spurs to win Thursday. The 1978 Bullets were the most recent team to win a Game 7 in the Finals on the road, and that was before the current 2-3-2 games match-up. Before them, the 1969 Celtics were the only other team to do it.

So, Pops will likely have a long summer to think about tactical fouling as part of defending against 3-pointers. And, if you can't learn the right answer, then, as a coach, you're as old as Timmy D. and Manu as players, and you should retire when Duncan does. Maybe this is a small part why it's been six years since you've even been to the Finals.

The NBA's gotten a lot more 3-friendly since 2007. Green's performance in Games 1-5 shows that. And that, not just his scoring, is why LeBron was guarding Parker more. Eric Spolestra wanted to shut down his drive-and-kick, too. That's also why Manu's Miami Turnover Machine hurt so much. Half of them were off drives with inaccurate kicks. 

As for particular situations? Somebody should have hammered Bosh's ass on that end-of-regulation rebound, before he could pass to Allen. Under 30 seconds left in a game, three-point differential? Hey Pops — learn how to foul. 

This all said, let's also repeat something else.

This is also about the Spurs' age. We saw that in the second half, especially the fourth quarter and OT. Does Pops need to get the team to slow it down more? Be more selective in its running? Stall just a bit more coming out of timeouts? Stall just a bit more at the free-throw line?

Probably all of the above and more. If he wants to get back on the coaching short list for Rushmore, it would be helped by learning how to steal seconds, and do anything else he can, to make the pace better, and find more rest, for his team. 

And, I'm angry about the loss because I don't like the Heat. I haven't ever since Dwyane Wade got all the phantom foul calls against the Mavericks in 2006. I haven't liked them even more since "The Decision" to start the 2010-11 season.

And, just because Commissioner David Stern hates the Spurs, I want the last NBA trophy he presents have to go to San Antone.

And, given that no road team has ever won both Games 6 and 7 to win a Finals since we went to the 2-3-2, the Spurs' best chance was last night.

The Spurs are NOT a dynasty

They’re very close, and a great team over a number of years, but, the San Antonio Spurs need to do me one thing —

Repeat.

Since Bill Russell retired in 1969, five/six different teams have repeated as champions: The mid-’80s Lakers, the late-’80s Pistons (who were one cheap foul call away from beating the Lakers in game 6, 1988, and thus getting the first of a three-peat); the 1990s Bulls (two separate incarnations, if you will), the mid-’90s Rockets, and the 2000s Lakers.

Heck, the Spurs haven’t even BEEN to the Finals back-to-back, let alone repeated. By that standard, the ’80s Celtics are more a dynasty than the Spurs.

Until the Spurs can at least make two consecutive visits, let alone repeat, no, they don’t count.