Hey, Team Blue? Stop clutching your pearls over Madcow Maddow's unemployment hyping

Here's the reality behind that 3.5 percent September unemployment rate that she breathlessly pushed:

Employers added 263,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. It was the slowest month of hiring in 18 months, showing the red-hot job market is cooling slightly as the Federal Reserve hits the brakes on the economy. 

The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.5% in September as businesses continued to hire from a shrinking pool of workers. The labor participation rate fell slightly, indicating fewer people are working or looking for a job.

There you go.

Yes, per the rest of the piece, it's still a tight job market. 

It may "loosen up" once we actually get into recession.

Meanwhile, the piece also notes that the hiring numbers have been sliding for a few months.

The job market has been weakening for the past few months, with the three-month average job gains shrinking from roughly 530,000 a month at the start of the year to 370,000 today. Job openings fell by more than a million in August, to the lowest level since June 2021.

Quitting? Home sales money to make that easier? Just "taking a break"?

Meanwhile, there's the final angle, as the piece also notes.

If the Fed sees the unemployment rate, by itself, as a sign that inflation is still untamed, it may jack interest rates yet again even as gas prices are back on the rise.

Add to the mix? The nation's No. 3 railroad union rejected the contract that Amtrak Joe brokered to head off the strike. Per that link, via Mike Elk, a strike isn't imminent; the degree of opposition isn't high enough. Four unions have ratified the deal, per the link; seven others are in the voting process of 12 total, leaving the Teamsters' sub-union as the first to vote no. Nothing is expected before Nov. 19, which puts it past the midterms.

So, even to the degree this might be good news for #BlueAnon for the midterms? It could be catastrophic after that.

Coronavirus and check marks vs V's on recovery

Unemployment dropped again in June, it was announced last Friday. Good news, right? Well, it's good news that will probably go away again in next month's numbers.

A number of employers last week, including biggies like United Airlines, announced major job cuts ahead. Per the Washington Post, it reinforces that the post-COVID economic recovery will have a "check mark" recovery path, if that, not a V. The Trib agrees, expecting numbers to go up again in next month's report. The Dallas Observer reminds us that no State Fair will mean job losses at the end of summer. SEVEN THOUSAND.

It also is an incomplete picture, masking other realities.

Speaking of large-number sevens, there's another issue. An estimated seven MILLION Americans have suffered coronavirus wage cuts. Others who are still employed are underemployed, the story notes. (It doesn't note that some of them may have taken on second jobs, if they could find them, because of this.)

Two other takeaways?

This is hitting not starter jobs but more solidly middle class ones, which make it more worrisome for the larger economic picture.

Unlike job losses, which have disproportionately affected low-income workers, the pay cuts are mostly hitting workers in white-collar industries, according to the study of ADP data. Three-fourths of the cuts in pay fall within the top 40 percent of wage earners, researchers said.

Per stories in the piece, if you have a big financial anchor, like a mortgage, even if you can get it tweaked, that leaves you little room for discretionary spending.

Second? Many of the affected workers feel that they have no choice but to accept this.

The trend also suggests that employees feel they have no better options than to accept less money for the same work.

Americans believe they have a less than 50 percent chance of finding a new job within three months if they became unemployed today, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey — a drop of more than 16 percentage points from a year ago.

So, some tough news that will likely remain an issue for not just weeks but months ahead.

That's now confirmed by CEOs, reports the Wall Street Journal. With new surges, they're turning furloughs into firings and more. Details:

“We cannot defy gravity and continue with the business model we had before the pandemic,” Pret A Manger Chief Executive Pano Christou said on Friday as the sandwich chain reported an 87% drop in U.S. sales and announced plans to close nearly 20 stores.

Executives who were bracing for a monthslong disruption are now thinking in terms of years. Their job has changed from riding it out to reinventing. Roles once thought core are now an extravagance. Strategies set in the spring are obsolete. 

So, "congrats" to Donald Trump, Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis. Your rush to "reopen" America, Texas and Florida has officially shot itself in the foot.

But, per Capital and Main, "congrats" to neoliberal Dems like Gavin Newsom on this issue, too.

And, "congrats" to Trump medical enabler Deborah Birx.

Republican depressions, Democratic capitulations

In the past century, we have had:

1. The Great Depression, caused largely by Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon along with tensions between the Fed and the New York Fed, and exacerbated by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, officially hit the fan under Herbert Hoover, but stock speculation plus farm belt recession was already entrenched under Calvin Coolidge.

FDR did do a fair amount to alleviate it, aided by Marriner Eccles at the Fed, Harry Hopkins and Harold Ickes with relief efforts, and Henry Wallace at Ag. But, he himself, as shown by his 1932 campaign against Hoover, was at heart a fiscal conservative in many ways, and turning off the pump-priming in 1937 led to another dip. In addition, with delayed payments on the Social Security system and other things, the system wasn't fixed that well.

Result? Per that chart, unemployment remained above 14 percent the entire decade. That's contra an implication by Ted Rall that the 25 percent peak was kind of a blip and thus OHMYGOD the coronavirus is worse. Yes, he does say that for "most of the Depression the unemployment rate averaged around 15 percent." That still sells it short. Because, in reality, for ALL of the Depression and even into alleged recovery times, it averaged about 15 percent. In reality, per these year-by-year numbers in text, beyond that, for all of 1931-36, five years straight, it averaged above 16 percent. And for four straight years, 1932-35, it averaged above 20 percent. And it went back to 19 percent in 1938, plus, after steady to strong growth in the GDP from 1934 on, the economy contracted again that year.

(It's not the first time I've questioned Rall's use of economics numbers.)

2. The Great Recession, caused largely by Shrub Bush, along with Fed head Alan Greenspan, who never should have been running the Fed in general, let alone 20 years straight, goosing the economy too much after 9/11 and then not restraining it quicker.

Barack Obama famously did the first post-presidential compromising the compromise away in advance in public when he pegged the stimulus at below $1 trillion. He also caved in by silence when (shades of the first paragraph) New York Fed head Lil Timmy Geithner refused to take direct action against some of the larger banks' grifting.

3. And now, we have what could be the Trump Depression and will surely be the Trump Recession. (The first quarter will likely have an economic contraction, if we haven't already determined that, and the second quarter surely will, thus meeting the official recession definition.)

Assuming Joseph R. Biden is elected (and yes, Dems, shut up, that's an assumption; look back to 2016), does anybody think he'll do even as well as Obama, let alone as well as FDR?

==

Side note — for anybody wondering whether or not the Great Recession was worse than the Carter-Reagan double-dip? It's arguable that, although income inequality wasn't as bad, the mix of the high inflation in the Carter half, plus the Paul Volcker pain in the Reagan half, means it was still worse. And I remember it.

Side note No. 2 —Look at the Panic of 1893 period. Note that the high unemployment actually covered not only all of Grover Cleveland's second presidency but most of William McKinley's first term. Arguably this was the second-greatest economic catastrophe in American history.

Side note No. 3 — the unemployment info doesn't go back to the Panic of 1873 or its aftermath. That said, I don't think it was as acutely bad as any of these others, but it did have the pains of drawn-out deflation.

Jobs report: Will 14.7 percent of Americans ...

The header comes from the new jobs report, putting the unemployment rate at 14.7 percent, the worst since the Great Depression.

With that in mind, some quick questions.

1. Will 14.7 percent, or more, of MAGAs finally realize Trump doesn't care about them, and simply is using them as tools and fools?

2. Will 14.7 percent, or more, of Democrats realize Biden doesn't care much more? And that Obama didn't before him? As if they needed more proof, per the photo?

3. Will 14.7 percent, or more, of either No. 1 or 2 realize that the answer is in third-party voting and that this third party is NOT the Libertarians?

4. Will 14.7 percent, or more, of coronavirus conspiracy theorists, including from that Green Party third party, stop it?

5. Will 14.7 percent, or more, in the various groupings above who consider themselves anarchists in some way realize that, while it might be fun at first, it's eventually puerile and sterile and doesn't actually solve anything?

6. Will 14.7 percent, or more, of Americans as a whole learn anything from all this?

Regular readers will recognized these questions as all being rhetorical and all expecting the answer "no." On 1 and 2, as long as neither duopoly party embraces national health care, they DO NOT CARE. Libertarian nuttery on deregulation is bad enough in general and horrendous at a time like this on No. 3. Unfortunately, as I've blogged before, on the horseshoe theory, there's too much of No. 4. No. 5? The only anarchists over 40 are professional philosophizing ones; that's the puerile. The sterile? As the Black Bloc has shown, by nature, anarchism only destroys. It doesn't create anything new.

No. 6? There's COVIDIOTS in the broad as well as narrow sense.

Texas progressives: Coronavirus, week 5

As with the previous four weeks, this corner of the Texas Progressives is splitting the weekly Roundup of news and opinion into two parts. This is the coronavirus half. The usual interesting stuff will come later in the week.

And for April 7 week, here. Ditto for Week 6. Here's Week 7, and Week 8.

Sadly, the "interesting" part on coronavirus news is that CONFIRMED deaths in the U.S. passed 20,000 last week. Worldometer is again a great resource link. Globally, throwing out city-state sized places, Spain leads the world in cases per capita and is narrowly ahead of Italy now in deaths per capita. The US per-capita death rate is 20 percent higher than the Iran that wingnuts love to mock.


Texas

It may not be quite as bad as Florida, but the Texas Workforce Commission's current situation on unemployment filing also sucks.

Special education students, and their parents, are being especially hit by school closures.

Rural counties are likely facing more cases than limited data shows or than Gov. Strangeabbott and Death Panels Danny Goeb would like to admit.

Get your art fix online. The Observer has the details.

Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins and Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson are squaring off more and more on coronavirus issues, with John Wiley Price, frustrated that Jenkins has long ceased to be his puppet, pouring fuel on the flames when he can.  Jim Schutze weighs in with a piece on Johnson's general cluelessness.

The Texas Signal worries about the rise of anti-Asian racism.

The Lunch Tray deconstructs stress eating and "anxiety baking".

Jose Benavides documents how he got tested for coronavirus.


National

The virus, with fatalities, is already hitting rural areas. And not just chic ski resort rural areas. The NYT has the details.

Contra one hope held previously by some scientists, but pushed by wingnuts, it appears like that that COVID is unlike seasonal flu in another way: It appears UNlikely to substantially weaken in warm weather. That's the National Academy of Sciences weighing in.

Kelsey Atherton writes about how the Trump Administration's dysfunctional response brings us closer to the cyberpunk world of movies and stories like "Blade Runner," and how this could become a vicious circle.

National Review, in the wake of the Wisconsin debacle, supports nationwide no-restrictions voting by mail.

Fauci, trying not to be or look like too much of a Trump toady, has been making the rounds of the news channels. In a livestreamed interview, he said that he thinks we ought to permanently get away from hand-shaking, even post-COVID. That said, though speaking on his own, and though noting a number of problems in the government that may have exacerbated its spread, he refused to use the word T-R-U-M-P.

Parts of rural Virginia are turning on Trump.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has long played up his Trumpian ties and background connections. Now, it appears that, because of his Trumpian-like response to coronavirus, his popularity is caving, just as Trump's is stagnant at best, contra normal crisis politics and rallying around the president.

We don't need legends of Rousselian noble savage American Indians (or any other New Agey shit) possibly undercutting coronavirus treatment.

With Trump-Kushner grifting, to riff on Eisenhower, is it too early to talk about the coronavirus-industrial complex?

Much of Georgia has been a black hole of COVID stats. The AJC has the details.


Global

Ugly Chinese nationalism now includes attacking Taiwan, complete with Chinese Twitterbots.

It started in Belgium and has, sadly, gone "viral": the totally false bullshit that 5G wireless caused this. Shock me that RFK Jr. is peddling this.

Lies, damn lies and unemployment stats

The gummint claimed last week that there are ONE MILLION more jobs than job-seekers. No, really:

The Labor Department said Tuesday that job openings jumped 2.4 percent in December to 7.3 million. That is the most since records began in December 2000. It is also far greater than the number of unemployed, which stood at 6.3 million that month.

Well, as with other recent previous "ain't this economy grand" news, it needs to be debunked.

If you're over a certain age, under a certain lightness of skin tone, or outside of the boundaries of larger metropolitan areas, you're not getting any real job offers, are you? Nor is your current employer offering a raise to keep you in place, is he? That's especially true if you fall into two of three of these pigeonholes.

The Eehh-Pee does partially admit that.

Many industries with the biggest increases in job openings include mostly lower-paying jobs. Restaurants and hotels advertised more than 1 million jobs, 84,000 more than in November. Health care job postings rose 79,000 to 1.2 million.

So, there you go. Hate McDonald's? Go to Burger King or else become a wiper of other people's bottoms as a certified nursing assistant:



What else is really out there?

The U-6 unemployment rate is still above 8 percent, and with a half-point spike to be its highest in a full year. And, the "normal" unemployment rate gained a tenth of a percent again.

I've not linked to the BLS' U-3 rates. I don't think they're accurate on age, vis a vis U-6, and I can't quickly find a U-6 rate by either age or ethnicity. And the BLS doesn't at all do a good job on rural vs metro employment, or quality of jobs available by purchasing power parity.

That said, this last issue is why I oppose a $15/hour minimum wage nationwide, rather than something like Oregon's $15/$12/$10 for urban/suburban/rural areas. A $15/hour minimum wage nationally, let alone Ted Rall's $25/hour or whatever stupidity, would kill rural areas. Period. End of story.

Many of the "discouraged" unemployed — and many of the "frustrated" currently employed — have "soft skills" that are supposedly so valued.

But, as long as we have private "benefits" health insurance at escalating rates, employers don't want to hire people who they don't already have enserfed, too. Beyond THAT? Restaurants are notorious for "scheduling on demand." Beyond pay, that's another reason people don't want those jobs.

And, the same gummint claiming we have 1 million surplus jobs continues to lie about how fast the economy is growing and expected to grow.

My latest resume – online

I'm still looking to move from journalism to other fields, preferably something like public relations and other writing work in the nonprofit sector at a place whose ideas and ideals agree with mine. A full copy of this is available as a Word document to anyone interested.

STEPHEN J. SNYDER

117 Lakeview Drive, Apt. 104

Marlin, TX 76661

936-419-1539 (cell, primary)

E-mail: stephen.j.snyder@hotmail.com

SUMMARY: Whether you need crisp, clear, concise news releases, in-depth presentations, branding or similar writing, brainstorming and idea generation, web and social media outreach, a PowerPoint or public speaking, I have the experience you need — award-winning experience.

PROFESSIONAL SKILLS: I have than 10 years of award-winning editing, writing and design experience, including researching information, analyzing and defining needs for story focus, creating and selling ideas via persuasive informational writing, managing and multitasking projects. I have additional experience with website content management and the use of various social media. Among my other skills and experience are desktop publishing, photography and photo editing, volunteer marketing and public relations.

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Persuasive communications: Editorials work — I helped defeat a school bond issue shortly before the housing bubble hit, saving suburban Dallas taxpayers major headaches and money. Public speaking: Whether it’s serious, straight or a bit of both, I hit the style of speaking needed for an audience and event. Analysis and Research: I have conducted fact-finding, research and conclusions for detailed investigative news stores; as part of that, I know what facts are important and what are not, and what facts capture attention and what don’t. New Media: I have both personal and professional experience and thoughts to offer. A Tweet — that’s a newspaper headline in new format. Facebook involves branding, customer service, marketing and more. Blogging and in-depth website posts offer ways to communicate in detail.

COMPUTER SKILLS

• InDesign • Photoshop • Quark • Office suite  • Web content  • Social media  • Video

PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE

Editor and Publisher, September 2012 — Marlin Democrat, Marlin, Texas

• Do-it-all small-town publisher — editing, desktop publishing, managing bookkeeper and ad salesperson, plus selling ads myself, both with regular customers and an occasional cold call.

Managing editor, Dec. 2011-Sept. 2012 — Marble Falls Highlander, Marble Falls, Texas

• Marketed and reported arts, entertainment and news as editor of a community lifestyles publication as well as a semiweekly newspaper, managing two staff writers, two other editors

Copy Editor, September 2009–December 2011 — Odessa American, Odessa, Texas

• Led editorial office as Sunday slot editor      • Was part of teamwork winning state awards

• Helped surpass profit-share goals      • Helped improve daily success for on-time publication

Managing editor, September 2007- July 2009 — Today Newspapers, Duncanville, Texas

• Started blog, Twitter account for group of four newspapers  • Improved social media use

• Hired and managed staff writers        • Edited and managed company website content

• Edited, updated website content        • Marketed newspaper operations to public

Managing Editor, January 2007- September 2007 — Navasota Examiner, Navasota, Texas

• Edited and managed editorial staff, freelancers                     • Edited, updated website content       

STEPHEN J. SNYDER

Page 2

Editor, later also assistant managing editor, April 2000 to January 2007

Today Newspapers, DeSoto, Texas; contact information above

• Assisted in redesign of newspaper     • Improved publication timelines

• Won numerous state awards              • Named top regional journalist

Previous experience:

Managing editor, weekly newspaper: • Moved paper from deficit to profit

City editor-reporter, daily paper: • Wrote feature and news stories on a daily basis.

College adjunct instructor: • Taught English, business writing, sociology, psychology

Proofreader, book publisher: • Proofread nonfiction books, with occasional copy editing work

Intern minister • Supervised work included teaching, religious instruction, counseling

PROFESSIONAL HONORS

• North and East Texas Press Association — Journalist of the Year, weekly division, 2005.

• Texas Press Association Better Newspaper Contests — First place, sweepstakes: 2002, 2005; first, general excellence, 2004, 2009; first, page design, 2002, 2003; first, news writing, 2002; first, editorials, 2005

• North and East Texas Press Association contests — first, editorials, 1999; editorials, news, special sections, 2001; columns, 2002, general excellence, headlines, sports 2005; (partial list).

• Texas Press Association, Better Newspaper Contest committee, 2006.

EDUCATION

Master’s Degree

Concordia Seminary, St. Louis, Mo.

•Trained in administration, public speaking, teaching, church marketing, and counseling.

• Started new class by petition drive, and developed syllabus, objectives for course.

• Served on student senate.

Bachelor of Arts

St. John’s College, Winfield, Kan.

• Elected student body president, 1983-84.

• Elected to three years of student senate.

COMMUNITY and OTHER

• Diversity and conflict resolution training from Greater Dallas Community Relations Commission

• Board of directors, Lancaster Chamber of Commerce (ex officio)

• Member, Lancaster Human Relations Commission, city of Lancaster; elected chairman 2003

• Volunteer work and leadership positions, various volunteer groups

WORK SAMPLES and SUPPORTING INFORMATION

Writing, design, photo clips: https://drive.google.com/#folders/0B1imgeBDYOFDWm5ha3pybGpPbk0

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/steve-snyder/8/59a/561

Still looking for work!!!

See my mini-resume....

STEPHEN J. SNYDER
212 W. Wintergreen Road, #2073
DeSoto, TX 75115
936-419-1539 (cell); 972-223-7111 (home)
E-mail: socraticgadflyAThotmailDOTcom

OBJECTIVE: A communications position using my skills and experience in writing, editing, desktop publishing, management, public speaking, and analytical and synthetic thinking.

BACKGROUND: More than 10 years award-winning editing and writing; also marketing, public speaking, page layout/design, photography/editing, research. Strong analytical abilities.

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Persuasive communications: Editorial writing helped pass city and school district bonds, 2004-05, defeated other school bond, Lancaster. Public speaking: Trained in public speaking and speech writing; have spoken on behalf of newspaper employers to various organizations. Creativity: Have written opinion columns in haiku and other poetic formats; have created editorial cartoons in Photoshop. News: Pollution investigative journalism led to company CEO being terminated; other investigative work connected to Centers for Disease Control tracking a medical syndrome to a Golden Corral restaurant, already closed after reporting on sub-par health inspections. Uncovered newly-constructed high school with non-lockable classrooms and cosmetology classroom in violation of state standards. management: Partial oversight of four news editors and other staff as assistant managing editor, Today Newspapers; managed staff writer(s), Navasota, Lancaster; managed freelancers, Navasota, Jacksboro.

PROFESSIONAL HONORS
North and East Texas Press Association — Journalist of the Year, weekly division, 2005.
Texas Press Association Better Newspaper Contests — First place, sweepstakes: 2002, 2005; first, general excellence, 2004, 2009; first, page design, 2002, 2003; first, news writing, 2002; first, editorials, 2005;

COMMUNITY and OTHER
Diversity and conflict resolution training from Greater Dallas Community Relations Commission
Board of directors, Lancaster Chamber of Commerce (ex officio)
Member, Lancaster Human Relations Commission, city of Lancaster; elected chairman 2003
Volunteer work and leadership positions, various support groups

The jobless recovery is now a job-loser

Of course, Team Obama is touting the plus side of today's news, that the unemployment rate is down to 6.3 percent. The down side, of course, he'll ignore.

And, that's that 800,000 new people who left the work force. Per this NYT blog, as far as people in the workforce, we as a country have given up all the labor participation gains made since the start of this year.

Well, maybe that's not the down side.

Maybe it's that wages stayed flat, even with declining unemployment AND fewer workers in the job force.

Or maybe it's that wages stayed flat and people left the economy even as Wall Street set new records.

Much more than than the relatively mild Poppy Bush recession or the moderate Shrub Bush recession, even more than the Carter-Reagan double dip recession, the Great Recession's recovery is hollow indeed.

Now, monthly unemployment numbers are always subject to revision. But these are serious issues that "revision" won't totally cover up.

Add to that the fact that unemployment filings also jumped, and the drop in unemployment rate is obviously camouflaging a lot of ongoing weakness.

And, just figuring out "why" is only one step. Related to that, Gallup says this is part of a larger mixed bag, albeit with generally slightly declining trends.

Whether Dear Leader actually gets his hands dirty on trying to change that "why" is another. Ditto on the Federal Reserve doing anything besides further phasing back on its "quantitative easing."

Maybe Obama was right last week

First, let's not be too hasty based on one month's numbers and second, let's not forget about eurozone issues. But, today's news that jobless claims hit a 3 1/2 year low has to be seen as some sort of good news for larger, longer economic growth.

That said, the story offers a caveat:

Another concern: The economy has been here before.

In February, unemployment claims fell to 375,000. Companies added about 200,000 jobs a month for three months. But then oil prices spiked and Europe's debt problem got worse. Employers added just 53,000 jobs in May.

But, nonetheless, an irregular pitter-patter of financial news for the past two months has cautiously moved more optimistic.

That's not all. Add to it not only the fact that the Federal Reserve sees decent growth in 2012 but, as noted in the same story, three of Ben Bernanke's inflation-hawk opponents on the Fed's policy-setting board will rotate off next year:

The Fed made no mention of a new communications strategy in its statement. But economists say it could be unveiled as soon as next month, after the Fed's Jan 24-25 policy meeting.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, said the November minutes showed the Fed discussed adding an interest rate forecast to its quarterly economic projections.

Swonk said the Fed may be trying to build a stronger consensus before announcing the change. She also noted that three Federal Reserve regional bank presidents who opposed key policy changes this year will not have votes next year.

Charles Plosser of Philadelphia, Richard Fisher of Dallas and Narayana Kocherlakota of Minneapolis all dissented from the Fed's policy statements in September and August after citing concerns that the actions introduced at those meetings could fuel inflation.

Good riddance to all three. And, it will free Bernanke's hands a bit more in a variety of ways, which could help us all.

As the first story notes, we still need more hiring, especially as halfway good news tempts those who have dropped out of the job hunt to drop back in. There are the Europe worries. And oil price worries.

But, if U.S. growth can top 2.5 percent next year, some sort of recovery can keep going.

And, per Obama's "60 Minutes" comments, unemployment may just drop down to 8 percent by, say, the end of next summer.

Depending on who the Republicans nominate and how bloody the battle is, that number would look very good to the president.

8.6 percent and 2012

First, even allowing for more people dropping out of the work force, the unemployment numbers are good. And, while I know government economists are spinmeisters, nonetheless, the background news about rising sales in many areas is true, I know.

Meanwhile, this has big import for 2012. If unemployment is down to 8.5 percent in mid-summer, especially if some of the teachers and such get hired back, comparing the two mainstream parties, I give Obama more than a 50 percent chance even against Romney and well over that against other GOP candidates.

The lower unemployment rate could have short-term negatives, though. The GOP is likely to push even harder against another extension of long-term unemployment benefits. But, at the same time, more people back to work, paying taxes, etc., will slowly cut the deficit again.

If the projected 2013 deficit gets below $1 trillion by midsummer 2012, then Obama's really in the gravy, if the unemployment scenario I listed above holds true.

#RickPerrysTexasMiracle climbs to 8.5 percent

For the third month in a row, Texas unemployment has risen. I guess while he was praying for rain, Rick Perry forgot to pray for jobs. And, most interestingly, the increase is worse in rural areas. All major metropolitan areas are flat or better.

And, you want to know why? State education cuts. All those small-town school districts are hurting. As are the small towns where the schools, the city hall, and maybe the county courthouse, if it's a county seat, are the top three employers. That's the bulk of the nearly 9,400 government job losses, I'm guessing. Those small-town teachers.

I'll give you 2-1 odds unemployment in Texas goes at least 0.1 percent higher before the end of the year.

Anti-unemployed bill will solve nothing

I don't know whether President Barack Obama's push, in the American Jobs Act, to ban want-ad discrimination against the long-term unemployed, is more naivete, cluelessness about how the online job applications process works today (this from Preznit Technology Pusher) or political posturing.

I totally agree that this is a real problem. But, Obama's solution is a non-solution, as far as real-world practicality.

Large and medium companies don't have an HR person look at our Word document resumes any more. Instead, we upload it on their browser, where add-on software like Taleo or ICIMS parses it out. So, short of outright lying (hey, list volunteer work as a job, and be creative about your "volunteerism," if needed), a bill prohibiting want ads from saying "no unemployed need apply" will help nothing. Long-term unemployed will still get filtered out by medium and large companies, and even smaller ones.

Oh, sure, you could write a very detailed and specific bill, targeting not just ads, but human and software filtrations, too. But, how are you going to enforce that one? Really. And, if you do think of a way to enforce it, what penalties are you going to attach to it?

Frankly, I'd rather have it as it is now, and see the ugly "honesty"of Social Darwinism in the light of day than be hidden away.

Now, what can be done that has more potency, and is more realistic at the same time?


1. Those tax credits for hiring unemployed? Why not target them to hiring of long-term unemployed?
2. Many of the longer-term unemployed are older. Start bringing federal age discrimination investigations, which might discourage companies from firing these folks in the first place. Add in the threat of the Department of Justice automatically filing an amicus brief on any age discrimination suit brought by an older worker recently shown the door.

3. If the longer-term unemployed really have lost skills, then give on-the-job training tax credits to companies that hire them, too.


Nos. 1 and 3 have more of a carrot than the Obama bill offers. No.2 swings a bigger stick.
As for the options above, I suspect Preznit Kumbaya is naive/clueless more than posturing on his original bill. But, what the hell. Contact the White House and tell him the truth. Offer alternatives, whether mine or yours.

At the same time, there's the economic wingnuts at Reason, who mock a "long-term unemployed activist" by asking if "unemployee" is going to become a new job title. While you're at it, you can email Tim Cavanaugh about that stupidity. (And, it's stuff like this that keeps me from going to Reason as a civil liberties source.)

#RickPerry and the 8.4 pct unemployment miracle

Ripped from the AP headlines:

The unemployment rate in Texas jumped to 8.4 percent in July, hitting the highest level since 1987 while climbing at the fastest pace since the state was still stuck in a recession two years ago, according to employment figures released Friday.

Let's see Tricky Ricky try to spin away this baby.

Well, a flunky already is:

"Texas continues to feel the effects of a stagnant national economy," Texas Workforce Commission Chairman Tom Pauken said in a statement.

(Pauken, for the information of non-Texans, is a former state GOP chair, amongst other things.)

And, here are more details that show this isn't just a blip:

The jobless rate in Texas increased from 8.2 percent in June, and after being at 8.0 in May, the rate has now risen 0.2 in consecutive months for the first time since the recession in 2009.

Government and construction were down. The 9,400 government jobs lost last month was the sharpest monthly drop since September, with Central Texas taking the brunt of those losses.

In other words, this is a trend, not an aberration. Two consecutive months of two-tenths increase means Texas' economy (sadly for those of us who live here and know that Perry, and much of the state GOP, are nuts) is in trouble.

The second quoted paragraph? The drop is government jobs is primarily, I think, school districts already cutting jobs due to the GOP-passed austerity budget of June. Look for more of that in the next month or two. The construction jobs drop? That's more worrisome yet. It heralds, perhaps, a more general economic slowing. It may also indicate homeowners are more worried about buying houses, among other things.

Sadly, between Comptroller Susan Combs refusing to tell voters last October just how bad the state budget was shaping up to be, and the general "Perry luck" in elections, he's again dodged a bullet that could and should have prevented him from continuing to run Texas into the ground while boasting about his gubernatorial greatness.

#Friedman hits a new low in offensive-stupid with jobs

Teapot Tommy Friedman, aka My Head is Flat, never ceases to surprise me at the new ways in which he can simply be obtuse about the real world.

Now, it's about the idea, and even more, the naive acceptance of its likelihood of success, about how each of us needs to become a lifelong one-person entrepreneur in the business world.

Here's Teapot Tommy, full agog at the latest stimulation to his semi-wet brain:

Whatever you may be thinking when you apply for a job today, you can be sure the employer is asking this: Can this person add value every hour, every day — more than a worker in India, a robot or a computer? Can he or she help my company adapt by not only doing the job today but also reinventing the job for tomorrow? And can he or she adapt with all the change, so my company can adapt and export more into the fastest-growing global markets? In today’s hyperconnected world, more and more companies cannot and will not hire people who don’t fulfill those criteria.

OK, let's unpack his opening presuppositions and show what's wrong with them.
1. Do CEOs ever get asked this by their boards, at least without snowing the said boards on their multimillion-dollar value? Nope.
2. Does Friedman even understand ideas of business ethics, ethical societal behavior and related issues? No.
3. Does Friedman understand that for every boss open to innovation, there's 10 that aren't and 10 others who say they are but are more than willing to pass the buck if anything fails? Again, no.
4. Does Friedman ask how successful companies might also help employees deal with change? Nope.

Teapot Tommy then blithely heads down the road:

LinkedIn founder Reid Garrett ... Hoffman says, that means ditching a grand life plan. Entrepreneurs don’t write a 100-page business plan and execute it one time; they’re always experimenting and adapting based on what they learn.

Ahh, the CEO of a vastly overvalued Internet company, one as lazy as Microsoft about not weeding out spam now that he seems to have it "made in the shade," is full of ideas for the average Joe/Jane.

Hoffman won't tell us, and Friedman either won't tell us or is even more ignorant than usual, that for people who aren't the engineers in Silicon Valley, working there is an unethical anti-union, anti-labor hellhole.

So, with that background in mind, what Hoffman is saying is that YOU need to reinvent yourself without any aid from a company, or any government aid (unlike Export-Import Bank aid, etc.) and, if you don't, you're simply Social Darwinist road kill.

Hoffman then gets insulting:

Hoffman ... has a book coming out after New Year called “The Start-Up of You,” co-authored with Ben Casnocha. Its subtitle could easily be: “Hey, recent graduates! Hey, 35-year-old midcareer professional! Here’s how you build your career today.”

Hoffman adds: “You can’t just say, ‘I have a college degree, I have a right to a job, now someone else should figure out how to hire and train me.’ ” You have to know which industries are working and what is happening inside them and then “find a way to add value in a way no one else can. For entrepreneurs it’s differentiate or die — that now goes for all of us.”

First, for those of us not 21 or 22 with helicopter moms, we didn't grow up believing this.

Second, what if you're already at Hoffman's paradise and booted out because it's cheaper to outsource to India? Well, per Hoffman, if you don't not only reinvent yourself, but reinvent yourself to work for less than that Indian, you're Social Darwinist road kill.

Third, the financial meltdown showed us nobody can guess perfectly "which industry is working."

Beyond that, Teapot Tommy ignores, overlooks or is ignorant of the countless unemployed already trying to reinvent themselves as self-employed, and .... sadly falling short.

Friedman hit a new low not just in lack of smarts but lack of morals. I'd like to see the NYT fire him and let him try to reinvent himself.

Technology depersonalizes unemployment in U.S.

The New York Times had a decent article about how various factors have made the current unemployment crisis in America not become a sociological fire-starter. They include:

• Greater dispersal of the unemployed;
• Greater suburbanization of the unemployed;
• Lower voting rates of the unemployed, and, related,
• The unemployed coming from lower-voting demographics, and
• Unions struggling for survival to the point of not having time/money/energy to focus on organizing the unemployed. (The story ignores 30 years of GOP antipathy to unions since the last great recession and 20 years of Democratic indifference.)

That said, the story buried one factor on page 2.

Today, though, many unemployment offices have closed. Jobless benefits are often handled by phone or online rather than in person. An unemployment call center near (community organizer) Barney Oursler, for instance, now sits behind two sets of locked doors and frosted windows.

I add "U.S." to the header, because the story goes on to note that unions in Europe have successful used the Web as an organizing tool whereas here, it's just to help people hunt for jobs and file for benefits.

Why this is, I don't know. But, most American unions probably need to address this.

Meanwhile, as the story notes, with a warning for President Barack Obama, historian Nelson Lichtenstein notes that after a year or two of him in office, many Depression unemployed started to sour on FDR:

Mr. Lichtenstein, the historian, notes that it took awhile for the poor to mobilize in the Great Depression. Many initially saw President Roosevelt as an ally and only later became disillusioned. As Langston Hughes wrote in a 1934 poem, “The Ballad of Roosevelt”:

The pot was empty,

The cupboard was bare.

I said, Papa,

What’s the matter here?

I’m waitin’ on Roosevelt, son,

Roosevelt, Roosevelt,

Waitin’ on Roosevelt, son.

For the moment, jobless Americans are waiting on President Obama. If unemployment stays as high as many expect, and millions exhaust their benefits, they may just find their voice in 2012.

Let's hope they do, and recognize that neither Obama nor Romney or whomever is going to represent them, be they blue collar, gray collar or white collar.

Bring back the WPA

Paul Krugman argues well for programs like the Depression-era Works Progress Administration to be revived today to combat "structural unemployment."

Long-term unemployed 99ers, without help, set record

Behind the smiley faces of falling unemployment rates in most states is this ugly reality: the long-term unemployed, those unemployed more than 99 weeks and therefore ineligible for further extended unemployment benefits, is now at 2 million.

People unemployed more than 6 months is nearly half the total. People unemployed more than a year is nearly one-third the total.

And, as the story notes, there's people who land jobs, only to lose them again in just weeks or a couple of months, often through no fault of their own. Since they got a full-time job, no matter how short, it broke the "streak" so they don't count as 99ers.

Add in the social-Darwinist job ads that say "no unemployed need apply," sounding vulgarly reflective of the 1840s "no Irish need apply," and it's clear that we have a long ways to go before we should be smiling too much.

Jobless bounce Obama's post-bin Laden bounce

Commentators said any political "bounce" President Barack Obama would get from the death of Osama bin Laden would be brief.

Brief indeed, with new jobless claims hitting an eight-month high. Team Obama and some analysts are trying to point to special and one-time factors. But, the four-week rolling average climbed throughout April, so that seems weak.

My personal guess is that half of the problem, maybe, is due to special issues, but no more than that.

That said, the $10 drop in oil prices may help hiring pick up again. (Unless you're a hedge fund manager or commodities speculator that now has to put a new yacht purchase on hold for a week. But, since Team Obama still shows no desire to further regulate commodities, you won't have to worry too much.)

Unemployment still not changing

The seasonably unadjusted numbers for unemployment and underemployment still aren't budging.