SF Chronicle reverses on paywall because of #Demand

Why?

The short answer is that, worse than editorial shortfalls, it's got massive management incompetence.

Yes, on occasion, newspapers have abandoned paywalls after raising them. Who can forget the unlamented Times Select at the New York Times, after all?

But, in the "Great Paywall Rush" of the last 18 months or so, where more than one-third of US papers have now paywalled at least some content, including all Gannett items other than USA Today, and the Washington Post, the San Francisco Chronicle is the first paper, to my knowledge, to abandon one.

The wall had only been up four months, which isn't enough time to test its effectiveness in terms of revenue, guaranteed non-skimming eyeballs for advertisers, etc.

So, why?

My header's a pun.

Demand Media, sadly known for low-pay "crank it out" filler items, apparently wanted it down.

The Chronicle's parent, Hearst, this spring tapped two top Demand execs to:

(D)igitally turbocharge and jumpstart its flagship but long-suffering newspaper.

A friend of mine speculates that's connected to this announcement.

KQED confirms that the pair of them made the decision. It adds this tidbit:

The Chronicle's former president, Mark Adkins, announced the paywall four months ago, calling the move "one more step in this Chronicle's journey through the digital age." Since then Adkins was transferred to Beaumont, Texas.

Boy, if that's not a fucking exile? But (see below), it's pretty deserved.

On the other hand, Demand hired the two just a month after putting up the paywall. And, the Chronicle's well-documented problems are on the editorial side, as the second link documents.

So, I'd say we can add management problems to editorial coverage problems. If it's true that the Chron is no longer in the US top 25 by circulation, the paywall didn't cause this. It's not a fix, but it's not the problem.

Of course, Gnu Media apple-polisher Matthew Ingram thinks this is good news.

Meanwhile, per Poynter, when your own staffers undercut the paywall, you've got problems beyond the coverage problem. Were I running the Chron, the next time I needed to swing the layoff axe, I know who'd get cut first. Editorial staff who deliberately undercut the paywall, even if it's kind of complicated.

That said, complicated it is! Running two different websites? Whoever convinced Atkins to start such a stupid idea is the one who should have been reassigned to Beaumont first. Though he still should have followed, for signing off on it. (More about how complicated it is here.)

And, you're right next to Silicon Valley, etc., and you come up with such craptacular ideas? You're lucky that your only daily competition is the wingnut Examiner Anschutz puts out.

This all said, much as I continue to find ways, more cumbersome all the time, to work around it, the Times' new paywall was done well. Start with 20 freebies on the meter, then, after you've gotten people hooked to a fair amount of free stuff, cut back to 10. Then, cut off freebie reading on Facebook links and defeat NoScript workarounds.

But, this move does not mean that paywalls in general are going to face new scrutiny.

Unfortunately, from what I've seen, a lot of media-related blogs are following Ingram's inane analysis as their lede.

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Meanwhile, in journalism news of the weird, GateHouse is going to start a big design center in Austin.

Why?

It has no Texas papers, therefore increasing the possibility of errors made by out-of-state copy editors. While some jobs will be new rather than transfers, it will have a net loss, company -wide, I'm sure. And that idea of selling your design services? Probably won't fly; smaller folks will undercut you and  lot of bigger folks will likely continue to do it in-house.

Meanwhile, rather that do a design hub at one of its newspapers, it will probably pee away money on Austin rent costs, too.

Baseball at midseason, 2013 version

Other than inexplicably touting Buster Posey over Yadier Molina for National League MVP, Jonah Keri's midseason awards are generally on the money, though I'd give more props to the Tribe as AL surprise, Angels as AL laff, and reject the idea of a Dodgers second-half surge.

More thoughts, from an email message to a friend of mine:

NL:

Wrong on Posey. (And I say that not just as a Cardinals homer, though that's in part it!) I don't overstress the "V" but there is some weight to it. The Gints aren't going anywhere, so that knocks him down a bit. Cards have best record, Molina's having a career year, and for the most part, is doing a great job with the young pitchers.

Agreed that we need to see more Yasiel Puig, even if Shelby Miller weren't otherwise No. 1 in the Rookie of the Year hunt.

Matt Harvey could ultimately win out over Waino, though it will be an uphill challenge, on the NL Cy Young.

I might bump Dodgers ahead of Nats as most disappointing, tho that's tough. And, Zona could go ahead of Pirates, perhaps, as surprise team.

And, I'd put Nats ahead of the Blue as most likely to surge in second half.

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AL:

Maybe Scherzer on Cy, yes, ahead of King Felix.

Given injuries (plus Bobby V effect) with Boston last year, I'd take the Tribe as most surprising. Might even rank A's ahead.

Would peg Angels as most disappointing, ahead of Jays.

Agreed that Yankees are most likely to slip back.

Here's his NL and his AL awards.

He doesn't mention managers of the year.

Right now, I'll put Clint Hurdle first in NL, then Kirk Gibson, then Mike Matheny. (And, why Baseball-Reference sent me straight to Hurdle's manager's page first, rather than player page, as with the other two, I don't know. And why it won't post blog links to managers' pages, either, is also a mystery.)

AL? Terry Francona first, then John Farrell.

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As for how the second half plays out?

I take the Cards to win the Central. The Pirates will fade enough for the Reds to take the first WC, but Pittsburgh will hold on enough to keep the second.  The Braves will win the East, with the Nats just out of the running. The D-Backs will win the West, and the Dodgers won't have much of a late surge. The Cards are the favorite to go to the World Series.

In the AL? The Tigers win the Central. Boston and Tampa finish as they are now, for a tight 1-2 in the East, and two playoff spots. The Rangers overtake the A's in the West, and both qualify. Cleveland stays above .500, even if missing the playoffs. The Yankees can't even do that. And, the Tigers are the favorite to go to the World Series, giving us an 81- and a 35-year "anniversary" match, if it goes down that way.

$5 gallon gasoline next?

We're already at $4 in selected U.S. spots. And, Peak Oil, not just the unrest in Libya, is a cause, it seems.

"Peak Oil" only comes strongly into play if demand is pushing upward fairly rapidly.

And it is.

China has already passed the U.S. in coal use. By 2020, it may pass us in oil consumption.

Since we may well have hit "Peak Oil" three years ago, if China doubles its oil use in a decade or less, that will inevitably put upward pressure on oil, and thus gasoline, prices.

In Canada, where gas prices are fairly similar to those in the U.S., gas is at $5 a gallon in liter equivalents already. That's leading to talk of gas at $2 a liter, or about $7.50 a gallon, being just a year or so away.

In case you think any of that is due to cheap Canadian money, the loonie is trading with the U.S. dollar at rough parity.

So, we could see gas at $5 a gallon in the U.S. heartland a year or so from now, and $6 a gallon in places like New York City and San Francisco.

Now, the one silver lining? Per Rubin's column from Canada, this could mean, if not the end, at least a partial reversal of globalization. He touches on that more in a book, Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization. And, he's not alone. Walmart, when oil prices hit $147 in 2008, was already talking about how some of its supply chain might have to move back from overseas.

That said, U.S. workers wouldn't benefit, in many cases. Mexican maquiladoras would see new spurts ... if U.S. companies could stomach the overhead of armed guards against drug lords.

That then said, such actions could spur Mexico into further disintegration, with major manufacturers extending their security forces outside their factories and creating de facto statelets.

At the same time, don't forget that hear in the U.S. President Obama refused to tackle the need for more regulation of commodities derivatives as part of financial regulation reform. If Peak Oil is here, Enron of a decade ago will seem like nothing.

Bonus scatblogging — San Fran wants Bush in the crapper

Memorialize the Preznit!

John Rinaldi is trying to get a new sewage treatment plant in San Francisco named after the Preznit:

Virginia-born activist and ordained minister John Rinaldi, a co-sponsor of the petition who ran unsuccessfully for mayor last year under his nickname “Chicken John,” said the initiative would turn “every toilet in San Francisco into basically a shrine for George W. Bush and all his great achievements in his eight years as our commander in chief.”

Rinaldi — flush with pride about the idea — said renaming the plant is “the highest honor available to us.”

If I were in San Fran, I would gladly “pull the lever” on this vote.

Or, get a toilet bowl brush with a George Bush head!

Update: I got to thinking — does Crawford, Texas, expect to need a sewer upgrade anytime soon?