It's clear that a 30-year period of reckoning for Great Britain vis-a-vis the EU has finally come due. Britain must choose whether to be part of a more financially integrated EU, even if it stays out of the Eurozone, or decide what it wants to do outside of that.
And, of course, this is all complicated by politics within the UK.
Assuming that financial services is that much a part of the British economy, I think Tories have to ask whether it will shrink more as part of the new EU or outside of it.
Frankly, a tighter monetary EU will, eventually, boost the Continent's role in finances, especially if any directives from Brussels are ultimately influenced by glances at Berlin. So, if Prime Minister David Cameron wants to walk around in EU purgatory, or even, as Tory backbenchers clearly want, leave the Union entirely, I think he's an idiot.
Sign on. Britain's financial sector will take some sort of hit, true. But, not immediately, and not in a way that Cameron, if he has any brains (questionable) can't actually fulfill his talk about leading a new type of Conservative Party.
The option of playing at the EU edges? Assuming Merkel and Sarkozy can pull something off, that's not a long-term option.
Cameron's stiff upper lip talk otherwise, larger EU-27 institutions will lose relative power if the narrower eurozone gets new financial strength, new financial regulations strength and, above all, is less unwieldy and more open to easier reform of governance. Eventually, the other "outsiders," even those already given tentative eurozone approval, will have to sign off on the bottom line, too. So, unless Britain can convince a minority of "outsider 10" to follow it, a two-tiered EU just doesn't sound that plausible.
So, ditching the EU entirely? Unhelpful. Despite new openness on banking, Switzerland's tight world would make it equal to an independent UK as an EU counterweight. The rest of the Commonwealth? Canada's tied to the US. Australia is largely independent. Other countries matter less.
Labour would, albeit reluctantly, surely take the plunge, also liking more of Brussels' regulatory powers and ideas.
Per Indiana Jones and the Holy Grail, choose wisely, Mr. Cameron. You may not get a second chance.
And, per U.S. conservatives, don't root for Cameron to choose to opt out. The "special relationship" will only be diminished if Britain itself is.
At least not at the head of a government.
That said, if this leads to a referendum, Labour won't be able to do any "straddling" itself.
And, whoever leads the country, if Britain winds up in financial outer darkness, does it wind up as more a "lapdog of the US"? Thoughts for all British political leaders.
It's not the choice of the EU vs. a more independent UK. That ultimate 30-year reckoning on alignment may be coming due.
Roger Cohen agrees about that and about Cameron's short-sighted stupidity.
Showing posts with label Sarkozy (Nicolas). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sarkozy (Nicolas). Show all posts
December 09, 2011
November 29, 2011
DON'T throw a #TARP over the #Eurozone
Stop me if you've heard this before:
Only now, the Eurozone's collapse is going to destroy Europe.
Of course, Wall Street wasn't allowed to collapse.
BUT, while I don't agree with tea partiers about not having acted in 2008, as well as disagreeing with the idea of running a nation without some sort of central banking system, it's clear that the no-strings TARP "cure" for Wall Street wasn't a cure for the American economy in general, either in 2008 or 2001.
So, let's hope that Western Europe's version of paper-pushing technocrats attaches some strings to Eurozone reform. If Greece needs the boot, then boot it. If the European Central Bank, or the degree of "federalism" emanating from Brussels, needs to be strengthened, then strengthen it. And, if member nations can't agree to that, then wind down the Eurozone.
We probably could have "wound down" Wall Street, too, if its kleptocrats refused to accept tight strings as part of TARP. Unfortunately, the corruption of mainstream bipartisan American politicians, including in having deliberately reduced shareholders' power to sue corporate boards, meant that the wind-down option here in America wasn't that viable. A Darwinian Goldman Sachs and JPMorganChase likely would have survived. A vulture-like low-feeding George Soros would have repeated his 1998 international exploits on an even grander scale.
That said, because Europe's crisis is in part a monetarist crisis, or so it seems, failure to achieve a good resolution one way or the other probably will enable the Soroses of the world even more than the Goldman Sachses.
At the same time, because the Eurozone "project" isn't the same as the U.S., the whispered-about possible cataclysm isn't likely, should Eurozone ministers "fail."
I actually see the current crisis as worse, from the financial world POV, and from member nations' POV, than the U.S. debt supercommission, but not as serious as TARP. Germany IS too big to fail. The U.K., which has problems enough of its own, is outside the Eurozone. The Netherlands is fine. If push comes to shove, for France, Nicolas Sarkozy will perform financial cunnilingus on Angela Merkel, if necessary, to bind Gaul that tightly to the Deutschland. Both Euro and non-Euro parts of Scandanavia are doing well, too, as is Switzerland.
That all said, per my one poll on the left, it is indeed possible that the combined European Union economy, including Eurozone and non-Eurozone members, will fall behind the U.S. as a result. It is even vaguely possible that the EU, not just the Eurozone, could at least "reformulate," if not break up.
And, maybe it needs to.
Just don't throw a TARP over it.
If nothing else, maybe the U.S. can still teach Europe a thing or two -- about what not to do.
If (it) fails, bank lending would freeze, stock markets would likely crash, and ... economies would crater. Nations ... could see their economic output fall temporarily by as much as X percent, according to ... forecasters. The financial and economic pain would spread west and east as (Europe) and Asia get ensnared in the credit freeze and their exports ... collapse.Oh, yeah, October 2008. Wall Street's collapse was going to destroy America.
Only now, the Eurozone's collapse is going to destroy Europe.
Of course, Wall Street wasn't allowed to collapse.
BUT, while I don't agree with tea partiers about not having acted in 2008, as well as disagreeing with the idea of running a nation without some sort of central banking system, it's clear that the no-strings TARP "cure" for Wall Street wasn't a cure for the American economy in general, either in 2008 or 2001.
So, let's hope that Western Europe's version of paper-pushing technocrats attaches some strings to Eurozone reform. If Greece needs the boot, then boot it. If the European Central Bank, or the degree of "federalism" emanating from Brussels, needs to be strengthened, then strengthen it. And, if member nations can't agree to that, then wind down the Eurozone.
We probably could have "wound down" Wall Street, too, if its kleptocrats refused to accept tight strings as part of TARP. Unfortunately, the corruption of mainstream bipartisan American politicians, including in having deliberately reduced shareholders' power to sue corporate boards, meant that the wind-down option here in America wasn't that viable. A Darwinian Goldman Sachs and JPMorganChase likely would have survived. A vulture-like low-feeding George Soros would have repeated his 1998 international exploits on an even grander scale.
That said, because Europe's crisis is in part a monetarist crisis, or so it seems, failure to achieve a good resolution one way or the other probably will enable the Soroses of the world even more than the Goldman Sachses.
At the same time, because the Eurozone "project" isn't the same as the U.S., the whispered-about possible cataclysm isn't likely, should Eurozone ministers "fail."
I actually see the current crisis as worse, from the financial world POV, and from member nations' POV, than the U.S. debt supercommission, but not as serious as TARP. Germany IS too big to fail. The U.K., which has problems enough of its own, is outside the Eurozone. The Netherlands is fine. If push comes to shove, for France, Nicolas Sarkozy will perform financial cunnilingus on Angela Merkel, if necessary, to bind Gaul that tightly to the Deutschland. Both Euro and non-Euro parts of Scandanavia are doing well, too, as is Switzerland.
That all said, per my one poll on the left, it is indeed possible that the combined European Union economy, including Eurozone and non-Eurozone members, will fall behind the U.S. as a result. It is even vaguely possible that the EU, not just the Eurozone, could at least "reformulate," if not break up.
And, maybe it needs to.
Just don't throw a TARP over it.
If nothing else, maybe the U.S. can still teach Europe a thing or two -- about what not to do.
March 20, 2011
Arab League goes hypocritical on Libya
Did the Arab League, whose support for the current air action against Libya was crucial to internationalizing its support, really think there would be no casualties? Or, did you think the U.S. wouldn't make the no-fly zone easier to enforce by taking out Ligyan air capacity?
Stop complaining, whether it's from hypocrisy or cluelessness.
That said, it's really not "internationalized." It's the U.s., with a dash of lapdog Britain and a little French opening elan, since President Nicolas Sarkozy is facing an election soon. Surprised Berlusconi isn't flying a few planes over Libya to obscure his possibly pending trial.
Meanwhile, U.S. talking heads are all over the place on this issue. Neocons talking abou8t our image in the Arab world. What a laugh.
Stop complaining, whether it's from hypocrisy or cluelessness.
That said, it's really not "internationalized." It's the U.s., with a dash of lapdog Britain and a little French opening elan, since President Nicolas Sarkozy is facing an election soon. Surprised Berlusconi isn't flying a few planes over Libya to obscure his possibly pending trial.
Meanwhile, U.S. talking heads are all over the place on this issue. Neocons talking abou8t our image in the Arab world. What a laugh.
April 20, 2010
Reading Sarkozy's mind
A hilarious column by the French president, as played by Roger Cohen. And, it actually rings at least semi-true.
January 07, 2010
A "Google tax"? Sounds promising
Unfortunately, right now, it's just under consideration in France, not the U.S.
President Nicolas Sarkozy wants to tax Google to pay for the preservation and continuance of various "creative" services in France.
President Nicolas Sarkozy wants to tax Google to pay for the preservation and continuance of various "creative" services in France.
October 30, 2009
Tony the Pony NOT a lock as EU prez
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair is finding his shot at the European Union presidency taking a sudden swan dive, primarily due to lack of support from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Why? Politics. The two want a leader from one of Europe’s center-right parties, like themselves.
Also hurting Blair’s candidacy — Britain being outside the Eurozone. What puzzles m e is why this hasn’t been held against him all along. Especially since he never did hold up his promise to push this.
Interestingly, parties of the center-left in Europe have kind of written off the presidency already, and are focusing on the EU foreign ministry. Read the full Guardian article for more such details.
Why? Politics. The two want a leader from one of Europe’s center-right parties, like themselves.
Also hurting Blair’s candidacy — Britain being outside the Eurozone. What puzzles m e is why this hasn’t been held against him all along. Especially since he never did hold up his promise to push this.
Interestingly, parties of the center-left in Europe have kind of written off the presidency already, and are focusing on the EU foreign ministry. Read the full Guardian article for more such details.
September 29, 2009
Sarko mocks nuclear-free Obama dream
At the UN General Assembly, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, in essence, said U.S. President Barack Obama needs to rethink his specifics-free nuclear disarmament idea and start living in the real world. And, he’s right, overall.
The Wall Street Journal op-ed page now weighs in, with its own winger twist. What took so long?
Even if nuclear disarmament is a nice idea, it doesn’t square with today’s reality.
And, like other Obama ideas, on specifics, “Where’s the beef?”
Or, “Where’s the reality-based community?”
The Wall Street Journal op-ed page now weighs in, with its own winger twist. What took so long?
Even if nuclear disarmament is a nice idea, it doesn’t square with today’s reality.
And, like other Obama ideas, on specifics, “Where’s the beef?”
Or, “Where’s the reality-based community?”
July 10, 2009
Baby got back and Obama got eye
OK, per Jimmy Carter, it was only in his eyeball, but President Barack Obama clearly had more than just climate control on his mind at the recent G8 summit. Pic at the link. And, will Carla Bruni be mad at Sarko, too?
That said, the video suggests Obama might not have been quite so blatant.
If I had seen this, noting that Greta von Susteren, true conservative, had “busted” the original pic, or this, I would have framed the post differently from the start. That said, I’m glad I didn’t run the picture myself.
And, I will confess — the NY Post having the pic gave me hesitation; I guess Rupert Murdoch’s sunk to a new low in fishing for controversy.
And, comparing the photo and video, you know can see that you can make a photo "lie" without any of the more technical tools of Photoshop, just by catching the photo at just the right, or wrong, time, and using nothing more than the digital version of old darkroom techniques.
That said, the video suggests Obama might not have been quite so blatant.
If I had seen this, noting that Greta von Susteren, true conservative, had “busted” the original pic, or this, I would have framed the post differently from the start. That said, I’m glad I didn’t run the picture myself.
And, I will confess — the NY Post having the pic gave me hesitation; I guess Rupert Murdoch’s sunk to a new low in fishing for controversy.
And, comparing the photo and video, you know can see that you can make a photo "lie" without any of the more technical tools of Photoshop, just by catching the photo at just the right, or wrong, time, and using nothing more than the digital version of old darkroom techniques.
April 03, 2009
Steve Pearlstein gives G20 two thumbs up
His hit all corners take on the summit?
1. Sarko got at least the appearance of IMF reform;
2. Brown got to rail against the “old system” while still standing apart from Sarko;
3. Obama gets Western Europe to actually do more stimulus work, albeit via the mechanism of IMF loans, and at the same time can use Sarko’s reform call as a cudgel at home.
At the next G20, in September in New York, we’ll see how this has played out.
1. Sarko got at least the appearance of IMF reform;
2. Brown got to rail against the “old system” while still standing apart from Sarko;
3. Obama gets Western Europe to actually do more stimulus work, albeit via the mechanism of IMF loans, and at the same time can use Sarko’s reform call as a cudgel at home.
At the next G20, in September in New York, we’ll see how this has played out.
April 02, 2009
Sarko: We’re moving beyond ‘the Anglo-Saxon model’
He’s of course talking about the Anglo-Saxon financial model, which a combination of old-school business conservatives and neolibs getting yet another Democratic presidential administration home still try to foist on the rest of the world.
“He” is French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who said, “a page has been turned” on financial regulation and related issues at the G20 summit.
Now, some neolibs, and with better standing, a few non-neo liberals, will say Sarko is “just posturing.”
Is there some degree of posturing in his statement? Sure.
But, “just” posturing? Wrong.
That said, Sarko said the deal wasn’t perfect. He wanted tighter regulation on securitization issues.
THAT said, with something on the books, and the Eurozone still the world’s largest economy (see poll at right on homepage), an opening wedge on this issue can now be further developed in one segment, at least, of the global economy.
More on Sarko’s take on the G20 from the Wall Street Journal.
And, pushed by Sarko, the G20 has asked the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to publish a list of tax havens; Sarko said he expects that list to be released at any time. And, with help from President Obama, he apparently got China, not an OECD member, to go along, at least for public consumption.
“He” is French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who said, “a page has been turned” on financial regulation and related issues at the G20 summit.
Now, some neolibs, and with better standing, a few non-neo liberals, will say Sarko is “just posturing.”
Is there some degree of posturing in his statement? Sure.
But, “just” posturing? Wrong.
That said, Sarko said the deal wasn’t perfect. He wanted tighter regulation on securitization issues.
THAT said, with something on the books, and the Eurozone still the world’s largest economy (see poll at right on homepage), an opening wedge on this issue can now be further developed in one segment, at least, of the global economy.
More on Sarko’s take on the G20 from the Wall Street Journal.
“Controlling hedge funds doesn't create a job in the French textile industry...but this turns the page of the madness of all those years of deregulation,” he said. “This is without precedent.”
And, pushed by Sarko, the G20 has asked the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to publish a list of tax havens; Sarko said he expects that list to be released at any time. And, with help from President Obama, he apparently got China, not an OECD member, to go along, at least for public consumption.
March 28, 2009
Continential Europe says no to Brown on stimulus
On the eve of the big G20 confab, German Chancellor Angela Merkel made clear to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown that the Continent is definitely not interested in a $2 trillion (€ 1.45 trillion or so) stimulus package.
And it wasn’t just Germany.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes said the same thing.
So Brown will be an impotent, impotent G20 host while the Conservatives look for Labor to fall further in polling.
Perhaps Merkel, Sarko and others even spoke loud enough for not only President Barack Obama, but also Paul Krugman, to hear.
And it wasn’t just Germany.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes said the same thing.
So Brown will be an impotent, impotent G20 host while the Conservatives look for Labor to fall further in polling.
Perhaps Merkel, Sarko and others even spoke loud enough for not only President Barack Obama, but also Paul Krugman, to hear.
March 01, 2009
Brown looks across pond to outfox Sarko
It’s been clear for several months now that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown have been vying for supremacy in leading Europe’s response to the global recession and financial mess.
Well, Brown has now decided to play the “special relationship” card with President Barack Obama.
Good luck with that. Somehow, I suspect Sarko won’t be happy at all, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is probably less than fully happy.
Well, Brown has now decided to play the “special relationship” card with President Barack Obama.
Good luck with that. Somehow, I suspect Sarko won’t be happy at all, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is probably less than fully happy.
February 14, 2009
Communism coming to France?
Well, enough French think the Socialist Party is too conservative in facing the current economic crisis, and what’s to the left of the Socialists?
Well, not called as communists, but the new far left in France is the New Anticapitalist Party. And, it’s strong enough (and remember, French citizen political action doesn’t have as many “sheeple” as in the U.S.) that French President Nicolas Sarkozy is worried about the specter of French 1968 street riots redux.
Well, not called as communists, but the new far left in France is the New Anticapitalist Party. And, it’s strong enough (and remember, French citizen political action doesn’t have as many “sheeple” as in the U.S.) that French President Nicolas Sarkozy is worried about the specter of French 1968 street riots redux.
January 08, 2009
Sarko, Merkel fire warning shot across Obama bow
Say U.S. will not be world’s only financial regulator
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are presenting a united front to the U.S. in front of the April G20 summit of economically developed and strongly-developing nations. They say the European Union’s work on its own set of financial regulatory reforms won’t take second place to any American ideas.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are presenting a united front to the U.S. in front of the April G20 summit of economically developed and strongly-developing nations. They say the European Union’s work on its own set of financial regulatory reforms won’t take second place to any American ideas.
May 07, 2008
News briefs – Blair, Begala, FBI, evangelicals
FBI caves on another National Security Letter
This one against an online library, not bricks and mortar.Begala shoots self in foot
Claims that Dems can’t win with blacks and eggheads.Evangelical leader calls for step back from politics
Leith Anderson, president of the 30 million-member National Association of Evangelicals, is calling for fellow believers to detach from partisan politics.No EU presidency for you
French President Nicolas Sarkozy has thrown in the towel on his effort to get Tony Blair named first president of the European Union Council.April 25, 2008
France pushes for E.U. boycott of the Olympics opening
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already pledged to boycott the Beijing Olympics opening ceremonies. French President Nicolas Sarkozy continues to make noises about the same. Now, Sarko wants the 27-member European Union collectively on board.
France will hold the rotating EU presidency during the time of the games in August, so this is a serious push Sarko is making. At the same time, he says he doesn’t want to marginalize China.
Unclear in all of this is how much Sarko should be flagged for a pander alert, since Paris was the site of the strongest anti-China protests during the international Olympic torch relay, forcing the torch to be extinguished and put on a bus.
France will hold the rotating EU presidency during the time of the games in August, so this is a serious push Sarko is making. At the same time, he says he doesn’t want to marginalize China.
Unclear in all of this is how much Sarko should be flagged for a pander alert, since Paris was the site of the strongest anti-China protests during the international Olympic torch relay, forcing the torch to be extinguished and put on a bus.
December 11, 2007
Sarkozy’s Libya cuddle-up doesn’t please his own party
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said he was “resigned”. to Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi’s visit to Paris while President Nicolas Sarkozy's junior minister for human rights said France shouldn’t do business with Gaddafi without getting more human rights guarantees. I guess Sarko really is trying to be more like U.S. leadership.
More seriously, can Sarko risk alienating too much of his Cabinet this early in his administration while dealing with the transport strike and other domestic issues?
More seriously, can Sarko risk alienating too much of his Cabinet this early in his administration while dealing with the transport strike and other domestic issues?
October 26, 2007
Will Sarko give a slap to Shrub’s CO2 face?
Or, in plainer English, could a European Union carbon excise tax on non-Kyoto countries push even Bush to actually address global warming?
Because that sort of excise tax on countries that have not ratified the Kyoto treaty on carbon dioxide emissions is exactly what French President Nicolas Sarkozy has just proposed:
It’s part of a larger tax package, and Sarkozy’s drive to realign France’s economy and public service sector.
And, it’s drawing rave domestic reviews.
I don’t know exactly what World Trade Organization regulations have to say about such a levy. But, so far, not a peep from Bush, so Sarkozy may just be on firm ground.
Arguably, this is a good reason for getting a Kyoto II started, that would include China and other developing countries, even if they’re not held to the same standards as the EU, US or Japan. It would finally, in a way, include environmental standards in international trade issues.
Because that sort of excise tax on countries that have not ratified the Kyoto treaty on carbon dioxide emissions is exactly what French President Nicolas Sarkozy has just proposed:
French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Thursday called for a national "carbon tax" on global-warming pollutants and a European levy on imports from countries outside the Kyoto Protocol.
It’s part of a larger tax package, and Sarkozy’s drive to realign France’s economy and public service sector.
Wrapping up a four-month forum on the environment that brought together the government, industry and the green lobby, Sarkozy said he would consider shifting part of France's tax burden from labour to pollutants, a key demand of environmentalists. …
“We need to profoundly revise all of our taxes... to tax pollution more, including fossil fuels, and to tax labour less.”
And, it’s drawing rave domestic reviews.
France's star environmentalist Nicolas Hulot, who pushed green issues to the top of the agenda of the last presidential campaign, said he was “happy and confident” following Sarkozy’s speech.
Arnaud Gossement, spokesman for France Nature Environment, an umbrella group of 3,000 associations, also reacted positively.
“For the first time, we have a president who does not pit economy, growth and ecology against each other... even though he was elected on a pro-growth platform,” he said.
I don’t know exactly what World Trade Organization regulations have to say about such a levy. But, so far, not a peep from Bush, so Sarkozy may just be on firm ground.
Arguably, this is a good reason for getting a Kyoto II started, that would include China and other developing countries, even if they’re not held to the same standards as the EU, US or Japan. It would finally, in a way, include environmental standards in international trade issues.
September 26, 2007
One good thing about the change of French governments
The Sarkozy Administration appears to have become open to the European Union candidacy of Turkey than the previous Chirac Administration.
I always thought it was both ludicrous and duplicitous for Chirac to, on the one hand talk about the Christian heritage of Europe as a reason to oppose Turkey’s EU membership bid, then on the other hand work to keep the would-be EU constitution as secularist as possible.
Of course, Sarkozy himself was originally against the Turkey bid, too. But, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who is rapidly looking like a serious practitioner of Realpolitik, convinced President Sarkozy to approach talks with Turkey with an open mind.
I always thought it was both ludicrous and duplicitous for Chirac to, on the one hand talk about the Christian heritage of Europe as a reason to oppose Turkey’s EU membership bid, then on the other hand work to keep the would-be EU constitution as secularist as possible.
Of course, Sarkozy himself was originally against the Turkey bid, too. But, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who is rapidly looking like a serious practitioner of Realpolitik, convinced President Sarkozy to approach talks with Turkey with an open mind.
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