What wins will Texas Dems actually get?

From last week, on Texas Public Radio, Mark Jones of Rice, who's in most Texas political reporters' Rolodexes, weighs in. 

First, Talafreako:

Mark Jones of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, who coauthored the report, said Talarico's performance is the strongest late-campaign performance he's seen from a Texas Democrat in decades. 

"Even in 2018, [Democratic nominee and then-U.S. Rep.] Beto O'Rourke was trailing [Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz] in virtually every poll at this point in the race," Jones said. "In contrast, in most polls being done, Talarico has an advantage. Sometimes it’s as small as two [percentage points], like in this poll, or one. In a few, it’s as high as three or four, but it’s rare to find a poll that’s not linked to some party or some organization which is at least implicitly or explicitly towards Ken Paxton that has Paxton up." 

While the survey shows 98% of likely Democratic voters planning to vote for Talarico, only 88% of likely Republican voters said they plan to vote for Paxton. Six percent of Republican voters said they plan to vote for Talarico, compared to 1% of Democratic voters who plan to vote for Paxton.

I agree. For a full month now, Talarico has never trailed, and in most cases has had a polling lead at or outside the margin of error, as is the case in the UH/Hobby poll cited in the piece. Barring something extremely weird, I would say Kenny Boy Paxton is semi-toast. I won't go as far as Kuff and say this race is baked in, but it is semi-baked. 

Jones talked to Newsweek last week as well, this about Libertarian Ted Brown's presence in the race. Jones and Mark Rottinghaus note that he's a refuge for Republicans wanting to not vote Paxton but also not undervote. That said, even though Jones said polling shows about half of Brown's supporters are Republican and about half are the mythical "independents," and very few are Democrats, Brown claims Talarico supporters as well as Paxton backers have been pushing him to step aside.

They're not "vote Talarico" ads, but I have heard "don't vote Paxton" ads even on country music stations.

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Next, a briefer thought from Jones on most other statewide races:

"I think the only unknown for Republicans is will they be able to ensure that their voters actually turn out to the vote [this] cycle," Jones said. "And to the extent to which Republicans vote instead of staying home, Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, [state Sen. and Attorney General candidate] Mayes Middleton, [state Comptroller] Don Huffines, and others should be in good shape, although they may be sweating a bit until midnight passes and they see where most of the early vote and Election Day vote has been cast."

Semi-agreed. Dannie Goeb has claimed to be semi-sweating, but is he really? I don't totally agree with Jones on the gov's race, as, even though most polls have had Strangeabbott ahead, in his case, that's often been INside the margin of error.

He's probably got more sweating to do than any other Tex-ass statewide candidate, with one exception.

Step on up, Bo French:

The one other potential trouble spot Jones sees for Republicans is in the race for Texas Railroad Commissioner. Republican nominee Bo French has been embroiled in multiple scandals over social media posts over the past year and a half — the most recent being a screenshot of students of color at a University of Texas football game, which he claimed was evidence that "foreigners" were displacing Americans. 

The new survey shows French leading his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Jon Rosenthal, by 45% to 43%, with Libertarian Arthur DiBianca at 2% and 10% of voters still unsure who they'll support. 

"We do know that the more people learn about Bo French, the less they like Bo French," Jones said. "But if more than half of voters don’t know who Bo French is, that’s good for both French and bad for Jon Rosenthal, who by comparison also is not at all well-known, with close to three out of four likely voters having no idea who Rosenthal is."

Agreed there. Rosenthal has lamented the lack of money in his campaign coffers. (That said, he got about 75 percent as much as French in the third quarter, the Trib says.) Other than money, the biggest thing that would help him? Talafreako co-campaigning at several events. Or, especially in metropolitan areas, Jasmine Crockett hitting a couple of his events. But time is running out.

I have looked at the Ag Commish and RRC races last week. I've written plenty about the Senate race and a fair amount about the governor's tilt.

In the Lege, I'll give Texas Dems eight House pickups, maybe 10 at the outside. I'll still eat my hat if they win a dozen, contra a dumb Trib article that I wrote about a while back. I'll eat Kendall Scudder's hat and say he's not all bad, contra my most recent of many takes otherwise, if they take control of the House. 

Per this decent-sounding prognosticator recommended by CD Hooks at Texas Monthly, as of last Tuesday, it appeared EV was giving Democrats a strong edge, especially as rural voting trailed previous elections. 

I may do a second update of this on pre-Election Day Monday, or may not. 

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Anyway, I'll give you some percentages.

Talafreako is more than odds on.

Hinojosa is about 30 percent, and Goodwin about 20 percent.

If either or both lose by less than 2 percentage points, as I said on Wednesday, part of the blame will either be on them for not trying to land joint campaign appearances with Talafreako or else on him for dismissing those attempts.

Otherwise?

First, pollsters claim they are adjusting for MAGAts deliberately spoiling polls. Are they adjusting enough?

Second, it's more than a cliche or stereotype. Tex-ass is a low-voting state until proven otherwise, and that helps Rethuglicans.

Third, despite somewhat "wired" rural Republicans like Suzanne Bellsnyder hinting that it's OK to vote Democrat (while having one hand on the bible and the other on the Constitution of course!) many rural voters are still locked in to pulling the R lever, metaphorically speaking since we don't have straight-ticket voting any more. Some may undervote Paxton, but that's it.

Fourth, Strangeabbott has shown he has no problem passing out empty promises like Halloween candy, such as his vacuous "audits" of and "pause" on data centers and his "pause" on Flock grants. Indeed, the Observer notes that the state has continued permitting data centers even after his pause, and then lying about it.

Fifth, for the rurales, Trump has shown that, via Brookie Rollins at USDA, and trying to get some of Putin's diesel, he's ready to pass out all sorts of ag bribery — even as he pisses off ranchers with his imported beef orders and rounding up alleged Ill Eagles at feedlots and meatpacking plants.