At the Monthly, not only is there not a CD Hooks piece fellating Cornyn one last time, but Ben Rowan offers a skeptic's guide to November, while getting people like Strangeabbott his own self to do some pearl-clutching. He offers this, halfway through:
Everyone I spoke to, in both parties, believes that the national environment is better for Democrats this year than in 2018—Trump is even more unpopular, facing inflation and the Iran war. And they believe Talarico is a better statewide candidate than O’Rourke. At roughly this point in 2018, O’Rourke trailed Cruz in the polls by 5 points. The polling aggregate currently finds Talarico running 1.5 points ahead of Paxton (he leads by as much as 8 in one survey and trails by as much as 2 in another). As one longtime GOP strategist, who requested anonymity given their current position, told me: “This is not a made-up race. You are covering a real race.”
I'm still more skeptical. We'll see. One reason for skepticism is most those polls had Talarico vs a generic Republican, before the runoff. That always favors a "name." Rowan notes that himself, later on.
And, he concludes with:
Even if Ken isn’t actually all that good, most everyone I talked to believed Democrats could still find a way to blow their advantage. After laying out his fantasy of exactly one GOP statewide candidate losing, and explaining how this year there really were signs a Democrat could win, the former Republican legislator caught himself mid-reverie. “Democrats are killing us now,” he started, “but—and I’m going to use a naughty word here, don’t hold it against me—Democrats can f— up a one-car parade.”
Bingo.
Kuff peddles some Kool-Aid on possible GOP defections. I'm not drinking.
Nate Cohn at the NYT talks about Hispanic numbers, ignores the Tex-ass reputation as a nonvoting state.
The Trib fellating John Cornyn? Not surprised.
At the Observer, Justin Miller doesn't fellate him, but does think Kenny Boy Paxton's win is "judgment day" for the Texas GOP. I shall officially laugh on Election Day.
Gus Bova there also salutes James Talarico's chances while noting the Anglo-ness of Dems' top candidates in general.
My initial guess? Talarico runs as close as Beto-Bob vs Havana Ted, 2018, but no closer.
No Green in the race? As I told Kuff, I'm undervoting for sure unless Talarico has a real, full-bore, statement about Gaza. That's at minimum and I'm not holding my breath on that.
