SocraticGadfly: Valdez (Lupe)
Showing posts with label Valdez (Lupe). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Valdez (Lupe). Show all posts

March 02, 2024

Early regional Texas primary predictions

I'm talking regional, above county level, Rethuglicans, and Democraps where available.

I think David Spiller holds on to HD-68. Kerri Kingsberry may win local Cooke County, but not the whole district.

Stacy Swann is running on the D side. 

Update: Spiller won going away.

==

I think SD-30 goes to a runoff, possibly both major parties. For Republicans? Brent Hagenbuch is in, as are one of the two of Carrie de Moor and Jace Yarbrough. I don't know which one. The fourth candidate, Cody Clark, is out. Besides, he's a secessionist, which led the Snooze to unendorse him

On the D side, my guess is that Dale Frey wins, no runoff, in a three-person race.

Would be nice if Greens had a candidate. Not holding my breath.

Update: Called this right on the R side in that Hagenbuch is in the runoff and Clark is out. Yarbrough is the other one who's in. De Moor performed poorly.

Got this wrong on the Doink side. Frey not only will not avoid a runoff, he's second to Michael Braxton as of 11 p.m. and yikes, Election Day Doink turnout is in the terlet.

==

CD-26?

Clearly a runoff in the GOP race. Can Brandon Gill make the runoff, with the Kiss of Trump offsetting the PAC blasting him for his financial services work in NYC for "woke" and Chinese-tied companies? Gill, for the unknowing, is also the son-in-law of Dinesh D'Souza. Guess that's why he got the Trump kiss without Trump research. I'm going to guess the less abrasive wingnut-squared John Hoffman is in. I won't venture to call Gill in or out. I'll also add that Scott Armey, while being old-schoolish of sorts, which might have some appeal in more urban parts of the district, won't make the cut, even with all the division otherwise. Robeson, the former state district judge, might be the old-school type to make the runoff instead of Armey.

Sidebar: With the PAC attack on him, and we all know what "Let's Go Brandon" means, are "Let's Go Brandon Gill" yard signs smart or dumb?

Ernest Lineberger is unopposed on the Doink side. Hope Greens run somebody, and somebody real. Hope Libertarians run a non-nutter, non-perennial candidate type, unlike two years ago.

Update: Gill appears to have won outright. The PAC, Conservatives for American Excellence, reportedly opposes wingnut candidates supported by the House Freedom Fries Caucus, worried that any more of them will make the Republican majority (if it holds on) even more fragile and combustible.

==

Outside my immediate area, I note that Loopy Lupe Valdez wants her old job back as Dallas County Sheriff. It's a five-person Dem primary. I expect it will go to a runoff, presumably between her and incumbent first-full-term Sheriff Marian Brown. That said, if Loopy Lupe performs as bad in this race as in her guv run in 2018, it either won't go to a runoff, or if it does, she won't be one of the two finalists.

Update: It is headed to a runoff with those two.


November 09, 2022

Can we call Beto "Beat-O"? Or for the pun, "Beat-0"?

Depending on your font, the typographic pun in the header, in the second set of scare quotes to be precise, may not be clear, but it's a reference to the number of races Robert Francis O'Rourke has won in the last three elections.

I mean, the man lost badly to Strangeabbott last night. In fact, he basically lost as badly as Loopy Lupe Valdez did in 2018. And, hyes, she WAS Loopy, in the Dem primary, repeatedly, despite Brains' wrong assumptions about my nickname, and in the general (where she brought bad baggage that was indirectly self-inflicted and others that was fully self-inflicted).

I start by again blaming Beat-0 as a bad campaign strategerist. He only made it worse, for my money, when he decided that, as long as he was chasing wingnuts in Muleshoe, he'd go full Pander Bear.

Meanwhile, will this serve as a wake-up to Gilberto Hinojosa and the rest of the majordomos within the Texas Democratic Party that the non-voters are not secret Dems? Probably not; it's been not quite a decade since I blogged about their ethnic assumptions on "demographics as destiny" and that was already old news then.

Beat-0 couldn't even win Uvalde County.

==

For the still-clueless among Texas Dems? Nationally, it looks like Dems will lose less than 30 House seats; maybe less than 25, and just possibly only about a flat 20. A good example next door? A Dem challenger had battled Yvette Herrell to a draw in NM CD-2, largely the southern, GOP-leaning part of the state, tho made more Dem-friendly in redistricting.

==

Kuff tries to spin Beat-0's results. (And fails.) Kuff says: "Look, Beat-0 did incredibly better than Wendy Davis!" And somewhat better than Loopy Lupe. "And the best of any Dem since Miss Ann!" In reality, the margin of loss by Beat-0, Loopy Lupe and Bill White, if we put it in terms of polls, would fall outside the margin of error.

October 04, 2018

Lupe Valdez: Can't one be charitable AND organized?

Brains, in saying he will vote for Lupe Valdez in her race against Gov. Greg Abbott, cites a Jonathan Tilove piece about her generosity in giving below-market rents on some of her Dallas properties to up-and-coming entrepreneurs, especially those of color.

And, that leads to my header.

Can't Loopy Lupe have more generosity and yet pay her property taxes on time? Even more, why doesn't she have a foundation or something to help with this?

As Tilove notes, the late payments aren't a one-time thing. They've been ongoing for years.

And, as I will say in an upcoming piece about decently-paid public school teachers living beyond their means, if you can't budget, you may have problems. I mean, Valdez was making $139,000 a year as sheriff, as I note here, and when the property tax issue first broke, her spox had a crappy explanation. It was also a wrong explanation. As Tilove notes, most the properties Valdez owns have had no real appreciation to speak of, therefore their property taxes have been entirely predictable. It's something he could have easily pointed out himself, but maybe he's still hungover from a Beto Kool-Aid drunk.

Again, why not start a small foundation, sheriff? If your rents are truly and consistently below market, you could surely claim tax deductions. You could do that for a foundation, if you set one up, rather than yourself individually. You could grow your properties, including that community garden you dream of.

The story is good indeed about Valdez's care for poor and near-poor people, as Brains rightly notes. But it also continues to demonstrate her organizational faults.

I've met her before, more than once, when I lived in the Metromess. Found her to be personable and engaging. I also had a friend who was arrested, then forgotten about in Lew Sterrett for 48 hours or so. Personable is great, but disorganized continues to go on and on. It's not just my arrested and forgotten friend. I had four years professionally to see Valdez in operation professionally. Click the tag. In the four years before I left Dallas County, I never saw serious development in her organizational skills. Haven't in the nine-plus years since.

Again, setting up a nonprofit corporation shouldn't be that hard. Yes, it would have some "fanfare"involved, but that too might help Valdez's goals, whether or not it helped her personally on her finances that much.

==

Updates: First, per my two polls at top right, I'll eat my hat if Valdez does better than White did in 2010. And, to segue to my second point, if that DOES happen, it will be because Beto was the rising tide lifting all boats in the Doink party, not her.

Second and speaking of, is she not trying to coattail on him more? (Maybe she is and he's brushing her off.) I can accept Brains' angle that voting for her, and pushing others to do so, might help downballot races. I still don't think it will help as much as he thinks it will help.

Third, a rhetorical question to Brains, per our exchange of comments. If Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner somehow got the Doink's gubernatorial nod in 2022, and Tilove or somebody else found out that he was making some modest below-market rents to a few black residents in the relevant black wards of Houston, would you vote for him rather than undervote, letting that news trump everything else you know about him?

Fourth, on the missing gun? Whoever's fault it ultimately was for being lost, Valdez admitted she didn't follow protocol for turning it in. Disorganization.

Sidebar: I just Googled, but haven't come across any post-debate polling on the race, which would partially reflect just how well Valdez did. Her Rainy Day Fund comment was good.

August 22, 2018

TX Progressives look at Beto heating up

The Texas Progressive Alliance looks at how the Beto O’Rourke campaign is heating up to almost Hotter ‘n Hell One Hundred temps — hot enough to get his first "longform" national political puff piece, analyzed here — to lead off this week’s Roundup, while yet wondering if he is playing debate chicken games.

Off the Kuff considers some secondary goals for the Beto O'Rourke campaign.

Brains and Eggs revises upward his estimation of Beto’s chances.

The Dallas Snooze looks at downballot Dems drafting off the Beto boom at his campaign rallies.

The Week notes that Beto is being boosted by dislike of Havana Ted Cruz.

At the Dallas Observer, Stephen Young notes the seven steps to getting to Cruz begging Donald Trump for help.

SocraticGadfly has some fun introducing Loopy Lupe Valdez (and her gun) to Aerosmith. (Yours truly will have a couple of Beto pieces in next week's roundup.)

Jim Schutze wonders if Walt Humann or friends of his are trying to gut the city of Dallas deal (which Monte Anderson — I know him — calls very good) to privatize Fair Park operations.

The Chronicle does some analysis on Nancy Pelosi’s Houston visit.

In Part 4 of its nine-part series on borderland waters and climate change, the Texas Observer looks at shared aquifers, an important issue in general given Texas’ differentiated treatment of surface vs underground waters.

The Lunch Tray takes issue with a partnership between Houston ISD and Domino's Pizza.

BeyondBones warns of the Bananapocalypse.

Better Texas Blog can't understand the arguments against paid sick days.

Grits for Breakfast flags another scam charity that claims to benefit police families.

Paradise in Hell laughs at a dumb Trump quote.

The TSTA Blog sees through Dan Patrick's phony concern about teachers' health insurance premiums.

A Houston ISD school gets black marks for using a quote by the Mayflower Madam to shame girls.

August 17, 2018

"Lupe get your gun," or "Lupe's got no gun"!

On the news that former Dallas County Sheriff Loopy Lupe Valdez (sorry, Brains, she's earning it more and more) "misplaced" her Dallas County Sheriff's Office service sidearm, a Beretta 9mm, sometime after transitioning out of office as of Dec. 31 last year, the head-shaking just gets worse.

This explains more of how her sheriff's office could "lose an inmate," I guess. It doesn't excuse it, of course, it just explains it.

Just another apparent example of bumbling that has kind of described her career as sheriff and now as guv candidate.

 Anyway, in light of this, we need some campaign theme music for her.

We can either say "Lupe get your gun" per a classic musical of 1950:



Or per Aerosmith, say, "Lupe's Lost a Gun":



Hey, Gilberto Hinojosa and other Texas Democratic Party poobahs? I know it's too late for him to establish Texas residence. But, if celebrity lawyer Michael Avenatti doesn't run for prez in 2020, (and why, per Brains, doesn't CNN list him?) maybe you could recruit him four years from now?

Meanwhile, readers, feel free to vote in BOTH polls at right if you want. Will Loopy Lupe do better, the same or worse than either Wendy Davis in 2014 or Bill White in 2010?

==

Update: The gun has been found, and it wasn't Valdez' fault. Rather, it was the Sheriff's Office. Of course, this is the SO she ran for 13 years.

==

Whoever's fault it ultimately was for being lost, Valdez admitted she didn't follow protocol for turning it in. Disorganization. A property room custodian has been reprimanded, or perhaps more accurately, made into the fall guy.

May 28, 2018

TX Progressives talk Memorial Day, runoffs, hurricanes

The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds you that Memorial Day started as a day to honor Union dead from the Civil War, not as the day for Southern Republican whites to think Bobby Lee died for their sins as it offers this week’s roundup.




In additional political blogging, at the Texas Monthly, R.G. Ratcliffe notes Empower Texas and Mucus, aka M.Q. Sullivan, took heavy hits in state lege races. At the Texas Observer, C.D. Hooks thinks little of state Democrats’ fall chances.

At the Statesman, Jonathan Tilove looks further at the upcoming governor’s race, and at the News, James Barrigan asks  if Lupe Valdez can drive general election Latin@ turnout, both writing before Lupe Valdez’ latest kerfuffle, over unpaid property taxes.

In a hot regional race, David Bruce Collins analyzes Lizzie Fletcher’s margin of win in the Democratic CD7 runoff.

Brains and Eggs takes a first look at the Harris County judge general election showdown.

In Dallas, at the Dallas Observer, Jim Schutze says black Dallas has an old guard problem as bad as white Dallas.

Jim Schutze pops up again to note the lawyers for the State Fair billed $1,200 for reading one of his stories, at an hourly rate of $795. Not sure whether the grifting itself or the ridiculous rate is worse.

SocraticGadfly reviews Amy Chozick's "Chasing Hillary" and one-stars it for several reasons to save you the trouble.

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In other Texas blogging news, Alberto reminds us hurricane season has an early start.

 Space City Weather heralds the start of the hurricane season.

The U.S. Chemical Safety Board reports Arkema knew well in advance of Hurricane Harvey about flood risks, according to Texas Vox. I noted at that time how self-proclaimed skeptics bashed the media over early Arkema reporting, while turning out to be  pseudoskeptics with a vested interest in the bashing, and tribalism.

Fort Bend County is suing the Corps of Engineers over Harvey-related flooding. Good luck, but you won’t win.

Grits for Breakfast deplores the state scaring people away from calling 911 on drug overdoses.

Colin Strother tries to wrap his mind around the Korean Summit debacle.

Bay Area Houston channels the Congressmen who nominated Trump for a Nobel Prize.

Juanita checks in on Blake Farenthold.

Monica Faulkner analyzes a recent report about youths in Texas foster care who are pregnant or already parents.

The TSTA Blog is not impressed by Greg Abbott's roundtable on gun violence.

Houston Press says thank the European Union for the privacy notices in your email.


May 24, 2018

Loopy Lupe Valdez craps the bed again

Sorry, can't put a politer title on the post than that, after learning that she owes $12K in back due property taxes.

But wait, that's not all!

On her financial disclosure forms, she failed to list one property and has incorrect names for two companies.

But wait, that's not all!

She says she's paying off the taxes on a monthly basis —

Because she can't afford to pay them all at once. On her $139K sheriff's salary until she resigned in December. 

And that's not counting what she makes off any of these companies. Or any investments, federal pension, etc.

And, speaking of portfolios, we have another Democratic candidate who, on financial issues, isn't that populist:
Online property tax records show Valdez personally owns or has an interest in 15 properties — including her two-story Oak Cliff homestead and several other houses along with several vacant lots — and has not fully paid taxes on six in Dallas County and one in Ellis County.
And, the "vacant lots" could lead to a quasi-slumlord question.

Meanwhile, for properties listed in her personal name, not whatever companies she has, Dallas County Appraisal District says they're not worth that much. The Snooze claims two of the properties, 2608 Bakersfield and 2635 Chalmers, are the same property with two different address listing, according to a Valdez spox. But DCAD has them listed with vastly different values. At a minimum, the Snooze needs to do an explainer ASAP on whatever folo it has. There's also the one property where her partner, Lindsay Browning, is listed first, but they're listed as 50-50 owners for what is their primary residence. (Also interesting is that that property is listed as 711 Edgefield, but the couple's address is listed as 707 Edgefield, which means DCAD may indeed be a bit goofy at times.) A bit more about their relationship is here.

(Update, May 28: As far as I can tell, the Snooze has no explainer or update on the two addresses, allegedly same property, but different valuations issue. And, with its semi-hard paywall, it is harder for me to search than before.)

Ellis County Appraisal District lists one property in her name at approximately $82,000. And on descriptor, lists her mailing address as the Dallas office of the Texas Veterans' Land Board, presumably due to a VLB mortgage or similar. The C/S after her name is presumably for conditional sale.

But, that's not all.

This is just another example of 14 years of craptacular political management.

Lew Sterrett out of compliance longer under her than under Jim Bowles et al.

Her showboating CNN on a Lew Sterrett tour when it was not yet in compliance and not giving political patron John Wiley Price or the rest of the Dallas County Commissioners Court a heads-up.

Those events and more I witnessed during my years at suburban Dallas newspapers, as I noted when she announced her candidacy. That includes getting sued for false imprisonment.

And that Snooze link has the same Valdez spox, Juan Bautistsa Dominguez, claiming he had the same late payment issues in 2015.

That's not a defense; that's a further admission of incompetence.

And, it didn't stop when she announced her run for governor. (See two polls at top right for how you think she'll do in the general election.)

She's had plenty of misstatements and stumbles during the Dem primary.

She's now blaming all of this, via Dominguez, on Greg Abbott having too high of property taxes, when property taxes aren't even set by Austin.

Her seeming cluelessness about how government works if she really believes that. (And, about half of her taxes would be city and county, NOT school district, therefore she can't even blame Abbott indirectly, for not funding schools, for half of this, if she's honest.)

Dominguez also claims property taxes are "unpredictable."

Yet another plea of incompetence, or of Valdez being out of touch with local government. And, if it's a veiled protest that property taxes in the Metromess are "unpredictable" because valuations rise so quickly, THAT is playing right into Abbott's hands on calls for valuation rate hike caps.

This also goes back to Texas Democratic Party head Gilberto Hinojosa.

Shouldn't he, by now, have forced some "handlers" onto the Valdez campaign staff? She IS his handpicked candidate. And, she couldn't do Oppo Research 101.

Per the timing on this information coming out two days after the runoff, if it is in part a tempest in a teapot, her handling of it doesn't make it look that way.

And, as for getting suburban independent voters in Texas' big cities? Forget it.

Many such voters, seeing that she was an officer in the Army and management-level as a federal detective, will probably wonder if she got Peter Principle advances due to tokenism.

I don't think that's true, but ... IMO, we're at a level where I have to say that it's not unreasonable for people to wonder such things.

And, that's another reason I'm a leftist not a liberal and that I try not to have too much white liberal guilt, per Doug Henwood.

==

And, disagreeing with Kuff, I think her campaign might be a small boat anchor on Beto. I note he framed that issue narrowly, so I'll say now it will be a bigger anchor on Lege races.

May 06, 2018

#Txpolitics and Dem guv runoff debate time
Loopy Lupe Valdez vs Whiter than White

Time for Andrew Whiter than White vs Loopy Lupe Valdez.
Lupe Valdez of my nickname and Andrew White of Brains' moniker, the detritus leftover for a runoff in the Democratic governor's primary here in the Pointy Abandoned Object State™, will have a debate on Friday, May 11.

Brains calls the spot, the Friday before Mother's Day, a bad choice. Assuming both candidates agreed, this isn't quite like the DNC trying to bury Bernie-Hillary debates, and besides, it's right before early voting in the runoff.

He doesn't like my nickname for Loopy Lupe, which is part of why I put it in the header, especially as I – while respecting him for saying why he doesn't like it in a follow-up – disagree with his why. (If she were of Anglo heritage, let's say with the same last name as the current governor of Wisconsin, I might just call her "Wacky Walker," Brains.) As I told him, I've used it off and on since Loopy's Dallas County Sheriff's Office arrested and forgot about my teacher friend a decade ago, and thus got herself and her agency sued. (And I think my friend may have used it before I did, and given that she's of mixed ethnicity and other things, if she used it first, I likewise feel confident about her lack of conscious, or subconscious, racial animus.) But, that's OK. Brains knows that I disagree with him on the actual-from-childhood nickname of Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke, in that it's not (merely) an adult marketing scheme. And, while I've occasionally, since our talks about that, called him Beto-Bob ... I have yet to call him simply Bob and don't plan on changing.

In tagging Brains yesterday on Twitter with the top link, about the debate, I said we'd get "I personally" responses (White) vs. incoherent ones (Valdez). For the background on the incoherent, especially re Latin@ youth and immigration, see Jonathan Tilove and links.

Couple other nuances vis a vis Brains. He indicates he will quite likely undervote the race if White gets the nomination and there's no viable write-in or Greens with Janis Richards as the nominee don't regain ballot access. I'm with him. But, he stays silent on what he'll do if it's Valdez.

Sorry, kimo sabe, but Valdez ain't that far left herself on that many issues. Not far enough to offset a long, long track record of incoherence and incompetence. (Side note: I might appreciate her candor, but not her naivete, which should have been greatly reduced through two primary and four general election campaigns for sheriff. This ain't a rerun of "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.")

As per Brains' worrying about her past cooperation with ICE? She was in the Army, and as an officer, not a grunt. She then, after county jailer time, worked as a federal jailer, then, essentially, as a federal detective, per Wiki. One can be a minority, and yet law-and-order, even wingnut law and order, a la Sheriff Clarke in greater Milwaukee, to look at Wisconsin again. And, per the other reason he doesn't like my nickname (which is again a wrong deduction), one can be LGBT and conservative, even a wingnut. Look at Milo Yiannopoulis of alt-right infamy. Yes, ethnic minorities, and gender-identity minorities, are more likely to be liberal, even leftist, than conservative, or wingnut. But, that's not an absolute; it's not with atheists, either.

Besides, undervoting if she should be the nominee (which I doubt) would (I hope) send a message to Gilberto Hinojosa and the rest of the Texas Democratic Party apparatchiks to stop selecting and favoring tokenism candidates.

Speaking of write-ins, Brains then talks about the possibility of a Democratic Socialist of America candidate, linking to a NYT piece touting them in Texas in general and Houston in particular.

Problem? Which he knows.

The DSA is an activist group inside the Dem Party, basically. It isn't a third party. It never endorses to the left of the Dem Party. Likelihood of a DSA write-in? Slim and none.

Now, a Socialist Party USA write-in? Or a Green-affiliated one if the party isn't on the ballot? Maybe not much more, but perhaps a touch.

May 02, 2018

TX Progressives watch Loopy Lupe Valdez, mayors,
school board president, shoot selves in the foot

The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds you to vote in May 5 municipal elections if you have them, then runoffs in late May, as it brings you this week's roundup.

Speaking of … the Jolt Texas event, by Latin@ youth, endorsed Whiter than White Andrew over the Latina Loopy Lupe Valdez, saying she “ came across as ill-prepared or ill-informed .” Senate candidate Beto-Bob O’Rourke also faced scrutiny at the event.

Off the Kuff is all about the redistricting arguments at the Supreme Court.

Neil at All People Have Value posted a picture of the violence initiated by Board President Rhonda Skillren-Jones against lawful and peaceful citizens advocating for Houston school children at a Houston School Board meeting.

Stace at Dos Centavos also addressed Skillren-Jones’ actions, calling them same-old, same-old.

The Contributor notes that more than 100 mayors nationally are on the record supporting Net Neutrality. Austin’s Steve Adler is on the list as is San Antonio’s Ron Nirenberg. Even Brenda Gutner from San Angelo and Shelly Brophy from smaller yet Nacogdoches. But Houston’s Sylvester Turner, Dallas, Mike Rawlings and Fort Worth’s Betsy Price are AWOL.

SocraticGadfly offers up a profile of gadfly lawyer Ty Clevenger.

The Texas Observer reports the city of Dallas says it will cost too much to remove its Confederate War memorial and may instead add a lynching memorial.

G. Elliott Morris interprets the latest Congressional special election results.

The Dallas Observer catches “former fetus” Jonathan Stickland once again being a current idiot.

Raj Mankad cries out for pedestrian fatalities to be treated with the same sense of urgency as flooding.

Sanford Nowlin has some fun with Brad Parscale's rants about San Antonio bidding for the 2020 GOP convention.

Julie Hendricks ponders the architecture of a more resilient Houston.

Better Texas Blog brings good news and bad news on family planning.

Texas Living Waters Project wonders if reservoirs are an outdated approach to meeting the state's water needs.

Grits for Breakfast says the Texas Lege could learn from its revenge porn statute being declared unconstitutional – but probably won’t.

January 11, 2018

#TxPolitics on the issues — Wakely, Valdez, Richards for gov

Here's my first summary of position stances of the actual and possible progressive candidates of note in this year's Texas governor's race, with Democrat Lupe Valdez, Democrat Tom Wakely and Green (pending party achieving ballot access) Jan Richards.


The sharp eye will note a few things.

One, at least a sharp Green eye will note, is that Richards still needs to flesh out a few positions.

The other, that anybody with two brain cells will note, is that Valdez currently stands for nothing.

As noted, these come from campaign websites or Richards' GP page. Don't believe me? Look for yourself.

Valdez's website is nothing but a giant campaign contribution solicitation at this point.

Maybe this is how Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa and other TDP honchos advised her to run — on nothing but a story and a name.

That just might work if it gets her a runoff vs ConservaDem Andrew White. But, what if it's her and Wakely in that runoff?

Or, what if people who don't get to hear a brief soundbite from a short in time, packed in candidates forum like that in San Angelo, don't hear anything. or read anything, to sell them on her, and she doesn't even make a runoff?

Hey, Lupe? If you or your handlers update your website, I'll update this chart.

If not? I'll keep reposting it. (I'll edit fonts and font sizes as necessary, now that I know more how it fills out.

Brains offers a bigger picture "Resistance vs. Revolution" as part of a series, with a first-post overview, including a good butt-kicking for Andrew White.

December 06, 2017

Lupe Valdez is OFFICIALLY in the ring for Texas governor (updated)

Lupe Valdez, fmr Dallas Co. Sheriff
What was rumored a couple of weeks ago now seems official — Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez has announced she has resigned to run for governor.

UPDATE, Nov. 30: The Texas Trib says there appears to have been some gun-jumping by North Texas media last night, whether out of enthusiasm for her candidacy or misinformation by the Dallas County Democratic Party. She has NOT officially resigned as of Thursday morning.

UPDATE 2, Dec. 6: It's now official, per announcement.

On the surface, this seems to  check all the boxes that Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa and allies could want in terms of visibility. (The Chronic notes that she's reportedly his personal choice.) Beyond local, regional and possibly state visibility, she is also "connected," connected enough to have been named to the Democratic National Committee in 2010. (Meanwhile, it's funny AND weird that Gromer Jeffers says she's expected to officially file "as early as next week." Gromer, she's only got 12 days left, and you know the calendar.)

Beyond that, she checks the right boxes on social issues, and, in the wake of Senate Bill 4 on sanctuary cities, checks the right box on that, too.

Indeed, that's part of her story. She was born the child of migrant farm workers, so she knows the immigration story. As is being lesbian along with a woman. No arguing that. (Also no doubt that in her first run for re-election, she faced definite right-wing smears, led by then-Dallas Snooze op-ed "pundit" Rod Dreher.)

In fact, in 2015, looking ahead a couple of years, I said the party, at a minimum, could do far worse. (Andrew White, this year, certainly comes to mind.)

I've met Valdez in the past, when I lived in the Metroplex. Never did an actual interview, but talked with her at one community event in the Best Southwest suburbs. Besides her "story" she is generally personable, no doubt about it. And, per that link immediately above, her story, unlike that of Wendy Davis, needs no "polishing."

But, she's got baggage.

That starts with the failed state jail inspections in years past at Lew Sterrett. Yes, that started under her GOP predecessor Jim Bowles. But, it continued under her. Even if we assign the 2005 fail, as well as 2003 and 2004 to Bowles. she still, with 2006-09 failed inspections, had one more than him.

John Wiley Price, Our Man Downtown, took her to the proverbial woodshed in the middle of that period, for not keeping him in the loop — whether she was legally required to or not. Worse, the "loop" was having the Discovery Channel film improvements at Lew Sterrett — improvements that still weren't good enough for the state of Texas for two more years.

That was the same year that she got sued for false imprisonment. (Update: It was eventually denied a hearing in the federal system.) The "whys" of what led to the suit speak of an ongoing lack of organizational skills in the department, and fish rot from the head down.

As noted, I said in 2015 that she could be a good candidate, because of visibility issues and she might be less of a DINO than some in the past. Hell, she'd surely turn out the Hispanic vote better than fake Dem Tony Sanchez did in 2002.

But, that 2015 post was before Tom Wakely threw his Stetson, or Panama , whichever it is, in the race.

Beyond support for LGBT rights, and presumably reproductive freedom, and the right of sanctuary cities to be sanctuary cities to illegal immigrants, what sort of a platform will she have? Wakely's already on the record about supporting not just single-payer health care, but wanting a Texas state level version of a National Health Service, with the state of Texas having government owned health clinics around the state. And more. He wants to legalize pot. He's tough on climate change. He wants stronger gun control.

Until I hear Valdez flesh out some actual policy positions, assuming that Greens either don't run a candidate or don't run someone better than Brandon Parmer, Wakely's got my support. And per Brains' take earlier on initial rumors, how much of a "law-and-order Dem" is she? Specifically, versus Wakely on legalizing pot? Remember, she had years and years at Homeland Security, pre-merger Customs before that, and the federal prison system before that. What's her take on decarceration? Fifth Amendment issues? More? Remember, contra Democrats at the federal level who say "Oh the SCOTUS," that even "liberal" Justices don't always support civil liberties in the face of "law and order."

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Personally, this is the most interested I've been in a Texas Democratic gubernatorial race since being eligible to vote in Texas.

Note: In 1994, I had moved here too late to vote vote Miss Ann, as I presume I would have, against Shrub. With me being a leftist of sorts, not just an evolving liberal, today, I surely still would have voted for her if I had 1994 choices with no Green Party and no viable, interesting independents. In 1998, I'd moved out of state by the general. Not sure I would have voted for Gary Mauro or not. I bought the idea of some state Dems and many national ones to let Shrub have a cakewalk. OTOH, "Democratic" Lite Guv Bob Bullock had already given Shrub a cakewalk path to the presidency. He' the second worst Texas ConservaDem of the last 20 years, behind only John Sharp. Sharp is worse for being less competent. And, speaking of?

Sharp's hand-corralled "dream team" candidate of Tony Sanchez in 2002 was barf-inducing. I can't remember if I voted for Dan Morales in the primary or not.

The late-entered Chris Bell was a bleah choice in 2006, and since then has proved that his "good government" schtick is bullshit. I voted for him over even worse choices in the primary, and over Kinky Friedman, who threw away a semi-serious chance at getting elected.

Bill White in 2010 was only slightly less bland than Bell, and a Dem insider neoliberal. And, with a Green option, I voted Deb Shafto in the general. Since Greens already had ballot access, I can't remember if I voted in the Dem primary or not.

Wendy Davis certainly wasn't bland in 2014. But, between her and Green pseudocandidate Brandon Parmer, I undervoted.

And Wakely's already been co-campaigning with Lite Gov candidate Tom Cooper, more of a dream team than Sharp's. Fortunately, they've not had Beto O'Rourke in their loop; Brains says (and I'm with him) that he's too much of a squish and that Sema Hernandez is the best Dem in that primary.

Speaking of Greens? The state party is reportedly still deliberating whether to seek ballot access. For petition-signing purposes, it had better have a decision before the start of early voting, and if it's a "go," announce it loud and clear. Wakely's got a platform that's as solid as many a Green candidate would put together. And, Valdez may well not be bad.

I'm not just talking about governor, though; what I'm getting at is that this governor's primary is quite possibly going to draw in a bunch of left-winger Dems who can't sign Green petitions if they vote in the Dem primary. And, that then means that if a ballot access drive is started tardily, downballot Greens suffer.

Hat tip to Brains for noting the non-resignation AND for noting how Valdez would very likely boost turnout and jazz up down-ballot Democratic races.

That said, if Greens do decide to do a ballot access drive (which they had BETTER do if Dems don't fill up their CCA card) I'll have to sit out if I want to sign it.

December 05, 2017

Texas Progressives weekly wrangle:
True crime, crappy politicos, more!

The Texas Progressive Alliance wishes everyone Treason's Greetings, and a #BoomerSooner in the CFP, as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff is doing his best to keep up with filing news.

SocraticGadfly discusses three big bits of political news from around the Metroplex area. First, he offers his initial take on Lupe Valdez's possible entry into the Democratic gubernatorial race. Second, he says good-bye and good riddance to Helen Giddings. Third, he offers a bigger good-bye and good riddance to Smokey Joe Barton.

EgbertoWillies.com wants us all to be on the streets and more engaged in combating the Republican tax cut scam.

Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez had a false start to her gubernatorial campaign last week, and once her bid for the Governor's Mansion is official, it will help carry a lot of downballot Democrats to victory, writes PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

Harry Hamid went to the Harris County Green Party’s most recent monthly event but was forced to stage an unintentional walkout — while noting the “toxicity.” David Bruce Collins decided he would rather not attend the meeting in the first place, for similar reasons.

Neil at All People Have Value suggested that personhood be taken away from human beings and extended to guns and bullets instead. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

ProPublica looks at the number of polluted military facilities in Texas and elsewhere.

Jim Schutze discusses a true-crime podcast on Commerce’s public radio station. Schutze also offers a big salute to Dallas' new city manager.

Therese Odell reacts to the Matt Lauer news and the reaction to the Lauer news by Donald Trump.

The Lunch Tray asks you to comment on USDA school nutrition standards.

The TSTA Blog keeps pushing back against school privatization untruths.

RG Ratcliffe stuck a fork in Smokey Joe Barton. The StartleGram notes Smokey Joe’s former chief of staff got to the head of the line to replace him.

Bill Barker urges haste in adopting a Climate Action Plan.

Keep Austin Wonky offers his proposal for a 2018 City of Austin infrastructure bond.

September 20, 2008

Intrade Sept. 20 — Palin on ice; Lupe Valdez campaign and DMN mudslinging

Dallas Morning News op-ed writer Rod Dreher plays bigoted dirty tricks with Lupe Valdez (below)

With Sarah Palin having fundraisers and other appearances cancelled by the McCain-Palin campaign, I offer 50-50 odds that she’s on ice until the vice-presidential debate, given all the different reasons she has for being on ice right now.

If Palin’s rise was worth a boost to Senate GOP hopes of stanching the bleeding, as the Post details here, then how much damage does the bursting of her bubble cause?

I’ll give the Dems a 20 percent chance now of hitting 58 seats, Joementum included. I would still love to see them hit 60, Lieberman counted, to see the carnage of how much Harry Reid would kiss Lieberman’s butt on cloture issues. Hey, I like schadenfreude.

Per the Post story, Liddy Dole’s re-election race in North Carolina will be a harbinger of Senate Dem chances.

That said, let’s go to FiveThirtyEight.com and Electoral-Vote for some presidential and Senate look-see.

The two sites differ pretty significantly on the presidential race. As of early Saturday, E-V was at 265-252 McCain, with Pennsylvania tied. 538 breaks it out at 303-235 Obama, a 50-vote difference. It lists PA as “safely Dem,” the second-highest level, and sees North Carolina less firmly in the Republican camp. I think 538 is a bit too optimistic; it all depends on how the rush of economic-related news plays out politically.

Neither site offers much hope to Rick Noriega against John Cornyn; 538 rates it 93 percent likely Cornyn will win. IMO, I still say Noreiga didn’t do much early other than running on his military career, and that didn’t work for John Kerry in 2004. And, he didn’t have Watts’ personal money to spend on ads. Wrong candidate, Dems, and not the first time in recent years.

Dallas County Sheriff? Earlier this week, I offered an official personal endorsement of incumbent Democratic Sheriff Lupe Valdez, or more, an anti-endorsement of GOP challenger Lowell Cannaday.

I stand firmly behind that, despite, on the horse-race side, knowing that Dallas Morning News editorial writer Rod Dreher’s offensive wedge politics over a sensitivity to sexual preferences survey the Sheriff’s Department used for the first time but that the Dallas PD has used for 15 years.

Even for you, Rod, this is a cheap-shit tactic and you know it, Rod.

Drop Rod a line.

And, as I blogged earlier today, this appears to be the Dallas Metroplex’s version of the “vast right-wing conspiracy” ginning up here.

Metroplex version of ‘right-wing smear machine’ against Valdez?

It certainly seems that way, with Dallas Morning News editorial writer Rod Dreher moving his crunchy con schtick to just plain “con,” and apparently doing so in tag team with former Observer writer Matt Pulle, now working at the pseudo-nonpartisan online newsmag Texas Watchdog.

Dreher’s using offensive wedge politics over a sensitivity to sexual preferences survey the Sheriff’s Department used for the first time but that the Dallas PD has reportedly used for 15 years, or so Resource Center of Dallas says.

Then Pulle claims the Dallas PD says, nope, we haven’t used such a survey, according to Texas Watchdog. (Which is only “nonpartisan” in the sense that it’s not officially part of the Texas GOP; Matt’s boss used to work at a ’winger public-policy shop in Nashville.)

I don’t know what’s going on. I’d like to hear from someone higher up in the DPD than just a “spokesperson.” And, since Cece Cox of Resource Center of Dallas said it’s been handed out to DPD recruits “within the last year,” this may be something new over there, new enough for a “spokesperson” to not be familiar with any changes.

That’s my guess; it’s new, or it is in its latest version and so DPD spokesperson Janice Crowther may not be familiar with it. (It’s unlikely the entire DPD, even if the survey goes beyond new recruits, takes such a survey every year.)

That’s putting the least charitable interpretation on this. The idea that Valdez knew in advance what questions were on the survey, let alone the insinuation that she drafted it, is ridiculous.

Beyond that, the whole section of the survey is only about a dozen questions (PDF).

Also, given the right-wing public policy think-tank background of Texas Watchdog founder Trent Seibert, contra Rod Dreher, I think we have the Dallas Metroplex’s version of the “vast right-wing conspiracy” ginning up here.

The Dallas Voice has more on Matt Pulle’s background with stuff like this.

Which also makes it interesting that the Texas Watchdog PDF ONLY has the one page posted. NOT the whole survey.

September 15, 2008

Vote Lupe Valdez for Dallas County Sheriff

No, she’s by no means perfect. She’s not even close.

But, the campaign, at least, of GOP opponent Lowell Cannaday, or else the Dallas County GOP, is making a collective ass of itself down here in Cedar Hill.

Every October for 71 years now, Cedar Hill has held a big downtown festival called Country Day on the Hill. It starts with a parade led by a flag honor guard, then the King and Queen of Country Day.

Well, Cannaday’s staff, or county GOP, whichever, asked if he could lead the parade. They then offered to throw in nominal chump change money. And, have been intolerably “persistent” ever since…

Ever since April, when this request first came up.

That said, if Valdez wins, I hope she does the smart thing and announces this will be her last term.

And, for the 944th time, this is why it’s stupid to elect sheriffs.

September 08, 2008

Intrade, Gadfly style

Yes, “Intrade” is probably copyrighted by the folks who started the concept but, short of “Horsetrade” or something like that, no eye-catching name has come to me yet.

OK, let’s keep this simple, and in percentages.

First, even though Palin is “started the concept,” that’s not the same as her getting the boot from the ticket.

So, Palin withdrawal/booting odds? 6 percent. With Schmuck Talk Express™ himself striving to quash Troopergate, she's not going away.

Obama vs. McCain? 55-45. I’ll tackle a guesstimate on third-party percentages and such starting in a week, but that will come; can’t have just the duopoly listed.

For more insight yourself, Electoral-Vote is invaluable.

FiveThirtyEight.com is better in some ways, with Intrade-type odds lines. It also isn’t afraid to critique things like ad quality from the presidential candidates.

Meanwhile, of course, the real Intrade is all about wagering, right? Well, some high muckety-mucks from various European Union countries and the EU bureaucracy have also For more insight yourself, placed their bets.

Cloture-proof Democratic Senate? 10-90. (I’m deliberately putting that on the low side, but, honestly, I don’t think it’s going to happen.)

And, what if the Dems get 59 Senators? Rather than boot Joementum out of the caucus, will they instead beg and plead with him to make 60? Or, will they try to get some GOPer to turn… hmmm.

On the Texas state level, now…

Cornyn-Noriega: 57-43. Sorry, but I just don’t feel Rick Noriega burning up the bushes. Psst., Rick… like McCain, you have to run on something more than military service. (FiveThirtyEight.com lists this seat as strongly leaning Cornyn.)

Noriega has not translated his Lege service into a winning campaign message. Also, he does not have Mikal Watts' money, nor much from the DSCC, and also does not have Watts' other pluses, which I thought Noriega would have transcended by now.

Electoral-Vote’s Senate tracker covers Cornyn-Noriega and all other Senate races. Per its link to Texas Senate race polling, you can see why I remain bullish on Cornyn — but NOT personally, of course!

Dems regaining the Texas House? 40-60

And, here in Dallas County?

Valdez-Cannady for sheriff: (Again, a pet peeve — why do we elect sheriffs?) 50-50. This race boils down to what Dallas power broker John Wiley Price does or does not say or do for Valdez.

And, a commodities shot:

Oil below $100/bbl this year? 20-80.

The Guardian tells us OPEC, next week, will fight hard and plot strategy to keep it above $100/bbl.

And, on the personal side?

Odds of me voting Obama instead of McKinney? Less than 10 percent, and that's charitable.

Tune in next week!

July 16, 2008

Lupe Valdez needs to put the shovel down

Sniping at her own employees is the latest example of digging her own hole deeper.

Is John Wiley Price unable to keep a lid on her?

And, I agree with the various employees’ associations. She should be at Commissioners’ Court meetings more during the budget process.

July 04, 2008

Loopy Lupe Valdez gets JWP woodshed spanking

Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price has written a blank check of political support for fellow Democrat, Sheriff Lupe Valdez (and why do we elect sheriffs rather than appoint them?) for the past three-plus years.

But, inviting Discovery Channel to film the magical improvements at Lew Sterrett without a tip-off to him, at the minimum, was too much.

Fortunately, it was just before a long holiday weekend, giving both Loopy Lupe and Just Wanna Play a chance to hash this out, plot damage control, etc.

That said, County Judge Jim Foster, also a Dem, thinks Valdez just needed to notify commissioners, not get formal permission.

But, JWP likes to be stroked. And, just asking ain’t stroking.

As a point of snark, somebody started a MySpace page for Lew Sterrett.

June 08, 2008

Dallas County being sued for false imprisonment

Specifically, the Dallas County Sheriff’s Department and Sheriff Lupe Valdez, for false imprisonment issues.

The plaintiff? Lancaster ISD orchestra director Theresa Dobbs, who made national news headlines two years ago after being “forgotten” in Dallas County’s Lew Sterrett Justice Center, aka the Dallas County Jail, for three days before finally bonding out.

For those of you not familiar with the story, in late 2005, Dobbs got a ticket for driving without a seat belt after being busted in a mall parking lot. She intended to fight the ticket, but entered the wrong court date in her day planner. Well, at the end of August, and the start of the Lancaster ISD school year, a zealous Dallas County constable’s officer, Ronald Bostic (perhaps overzealous, to put it mildly), showed up at Lancaster High School with a warrant.

Then, it got Kafkaesque. Due to paperwork mixups, misfilings, a screwy system, etc., she got forgotten about for three days. Basically, a clerk didn't retrieve her paperwork from a tray, and she wasn't placed on the daily municipal court docket. The morning and afternoon “cattle calls” for bail hearings? She never got called.

It gets worse. A friend came by, thinking she was there, to bail her out. The sheriff’s department said she wasn’t there.

Finally, she asked a person in the next holding cell, when that person got out, to contact the “outside world.”

Lupe Valdez has already faced enough problems over Lew Sterrett that I cannot believe she wouldn’t settle this, even if Dallas County District Attorney Craig Watkins is advising otherwise.

Add to that a $17 million county budget shortfall, and I don’t get why the county won’t settle.

But, nooh. (And I’ve heard that Valdez not Watkins, is the holdup on a settlement anyway).

Instead, with general election season just around the corner, this baby’s going to trial in July.

Not being a registered Democrat, AND someone who thinks the idea of electing sheriff’s is stupid, this is all enough to make one seriously consider pulling the level for Lowell Cannady.

As a point of snark, somebody has started a MySpace page for Lew Sterrett.

May 22, 2008

Dallas County $17 mil shortfall – November fallout

Yes, part of the biggest budget hole in a decade is gas prices and other overhead.

But, as Lew Sterrett is a primary part of the problem:
Sheriff Lupe Valdez's overtime spending is nearly $6 million over budget this year – the largest shortfall in any single category. Her agency is projected to spend a total of $8.3 million in overtime this year, most of it generated by the jails.

A budget report said an average of 70 jail guard vacancies has contributed to the high overtime costs. Commissioners have added new positions throughout the year, and the Sheriff's Department is struggling to fill those jobs. The sheriff is hampered by the fact that there are only so many academy classes that can be held to train recruits.

There’s no way Lowell Cannady doesn’t bring this up in the sheriff’s race against Valdez.

And, while I agree that Dallas, having the lowest tax rate of any county in the state, not counting Parkland’s special taxing district, has room to bump that up, John Wiley Price’s mentioning of that certainly wasn’t said in a politics-free sense.

At the least, Price had better spell out what the next 2-4 years’ budgets, needs, plans and priorities will look like for the Sheriff’s Department if Valdez is to be re-elected.

As of right now, I think she’s fighting an uphill battle, even though the county is moving more Democratic all the time.