All the presidential candidates offering broader options on post-bailout economics issues and more will be at Columbia University at 8 p.m. Sunday.
Well, all but one. Independent Ralph Nader, Green Cynthia McKinney and the Constitution Party's Chuck Baldwin will be there, but Libertarian Bob Barr is bailing.
His staff claims a scheduling conflict, but organizers say he wanted a one-on-one with Nader.
It will also be on C-SPAN if you have cable and get it.
It will also be streamed at www.thirdpartyticket.com.
Amy Goodman is moderating.
Showing posts with label 2008 presidential debates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 presidential debates. Show all posts
October 18, 2008
October 16, 2008
Neibuhr-TR debate not Obama-McCain
At the British newspaper The Independent, Johann Hari takes a fascinating look at the presidential campaign through Obama’s and McCain’s professed heroes.
First, Hari gets a lick in at McCain’s choice of Teddy Roosevelt:
Want proof? Hari quotes McCain:, speaking about Teddy’s charge up San Juan Hill:
Indeed he did.
Hari then notes that Reinhold Neibuhr, by temperament and more, has some close parallels to Obama.
Read the full column for more of this insight.
First, Hari gets a lick in at McCain’s choice of Teddy Roosevelt:
It is the aggression that he loves in his Teddy, not the reform.
Want proof? Hari quotes McCain:, speaking about Teddy’s charge up San Juan Hill:
‘He surveyed the awful carnage, the torn earth, the trenches filled with enemy dead, and pronounced himself delighted with the day.”
Indeed he did.
Hari then notes that Reinhold Neibuhr, by temperament and more, has some close parallels to Obama.
(A)s you probe Niebuhr's thought, you see that his contradictions and complexities intriguingly mirror Obama’s.
Read the full column for more of this insight.
October 15, 2008
Presidential debate III – candidate grades and final overall thoughts
“Game-changer” opportunity for McCain; sales pitch “closer” chance for Obama; grades below
And, was Obama too scripted?
My liveblogging of the debate is here, and my initial wrap-up on pundit analysis, etc, is here.
I’m putting a little more thought into this one, since it was the last of the three debates, and since this is the closest a debate has been to Election Day since Reagan-Carter in 1980. Between the two, this debate had the potential to be a game-changer.
And, it needed to be a game-changer for McCain.
But, it was also an opportunity for Obama to “close the sale,” and not just a time to play rope-a-dope.
How did each one do?
For McCain to have a game-changer, he either needed to energize the GOP “base,” particularly the social conservative side, to the moon, or else make a serious bid for independents. Other than his “no litmus test” claim for SCOTUS nominees, he clearly went for the base, not the center.
The $42,000 tax bottom line was swatted down before, and Obama addressed it more carefully this time. Besides, that’s not red meat for the base, although taxes are a big enough issue.
But, that led into McCain’s “redistribution” line. Obama deflected that by reminding listeners McCain voted for the bailout; I doubt that got much traction.
The Ayers connection? McCain could have done more with that, maybe pulling up some of the grants that the He had enough time to do that, and he didn’t. Bad debate prep, or was McCain indeed pulling back from the brink when it came to eye-to-eye time? A bit of both, I suspect.
Could he have done something? Yes; to many Americans, some of the grants might be questionable. Not to agree with truth value of all of Sol Stern’s claims, but questions about what Bill Ayers is doing today with Annenberg money and afterward might have.
But, I suspect the nation is indeed that tired of what might be perceived as negative campaigning that it would be tough to sell this to independents.
But, McCain had no problem being a junior Alan Keyes with his accusation that Obama let babies die. That was definite “red meat” to the base, but the “mother’s health” scare quotes is almost universally seen outside of diehard social conservatives, I think, as potentially being hugely off-putting to independents.
McCain gets a C.
He did a pretty good job in his goal of firing up the winger base, but it was the wrong choice, especially when done in a way that will be off-putting to independents.
Obama, as I said before, primarily needed to do rope-a-dope. He did that pretty well, with some good counterpunching. That said, he was fortunate, and he also missed a couple of blows. On Joe the Plumber, oe Wurzelbacher, he could have called McCain out for confusing or conflating total business earnings of $250K or so with individual income. He kept his cool, but, didn’t do as well as he could with this.
The Ayers issue? Got lucky McCain didn’t really go trolling there. As I indicated, I think that was the one area where McCain could have had his red meat for the base and ate it with independents as well.
The abortion issue? Worries, actual or alleged, about “angry black man” aside, a little more fire from Obama would have been nice.
And, that leads to the conclusion.
While not quite at Mike Dukakis level, that was definitely worse than McCain’s closing.
And, since Obama had the second close, it was a big whiff.
In answer to my rhetorical question above, I think Obama WAS too scripted, and nowhere did it show more than here.
This was his golden platter opportunity to close the deal, especially having the second closing. He knows that the kitchen sink is coming back out from the McCain campaign; he had a good chance to almost put his campaign beyond reach.
And, he didn’t.
If I were an undecided independent voter, I wouldn’t be wondering about his qualifications for the office. I might still be unsold on either his fire in the belly or his big-picture view.
Obama gets a C, too.
Barring a mistake, the election is his. But probably for only one term.
(Oh, Bob Schieffer did not appear in the tank for McCain; I would give him a decent B overall.)
And, was Obama too scripted?
My liveblogging of the debate is here, and my initial wrap-up on pundit analysis, etc, is here.
I’m putting a little more thought into this one, since it was the last of the three debates, and since this is the closest a debate has been to Election Day since Reagan-Carter in 1980. Between the two, this debate had the potential to be a game-changer.
And, it needed to be a game-changer for McCain.
But, it was also an opportunity for Obama to “close the sale,” and not just a time to play rope-a-dope.
How did each one do?
For McCain to have a game-changer, he either needed to energize the GOP “base,” particularly the social conservative side, to the moon, or else make a serious bid for independents. Other than his “no litmus test” claim for SCOTUS nominees, he clearly went for the base, not the center.
The $42,000 tax bottom line was swatted down before, and Obama addressed it more carefully this time. Besides, that’s not red meat for the base, although taxes are a big enough issue.
But, that led into McCain’s “redistribution” line. Obama deflected that by reminding listeners McCain voted for the bailout; I doubt that got much traction.
The Ayers connection? McCain could have done more with that, maybe pulling up some of the grants that the He had enough time to do that, and he didn’t. Bad debate prep, or was McCain indeed pulling back from the brink when it came to eye-to-eye time? A bit of both, I suspect.
Could he have done something? Yes; to many Americans, some of the grants might be questionable. Not to agree with truth value of all of Sol Stern’s claims, but questions about what Bill Ayers is doing today with Annenberg money and afterward might have.
But, I suspect the nation is indeed that tired of what might be perceived as negative campaigning that it would be tough to sell this to independents.
But, McCain had no problem being a junior Alan Keyes with his accusation that Obama let babies die. That was definite “red meat” to the base, but the “mother’s health” scare quotes is almost universally seen outside of diehard social conservatives, I think, as potentially being hugely off-putting to independents.
McCain gets a C.
He did a pretty good job in his goal of firing up the winger base, but it was the wrong choice, especially when done in a way that will be off-putting to independents.
Obama, as I said before, primarily needed to do rope-a-dope. He did that pretty well, with some good counterpunching. That said, he was fortunate, and he also missed a couple of blows. On Joe the Plumber, oe Wurzelbacher, he could have called McCain out for confusing or conflating total business earnings of $250K or so with individual income. He kept his cool, but, didn’t do as well as he could with this.
The Ayers issue? Got lucky McCain didn’t really go trolling there. As I indicated, I think that was the one area where McCain could have had his red meat for the base and ate it with independents as well.
The abortion issue? Worries, actual or alleged, about “angry black man” aside, a little more fire from Obama would have been nice.
And, that leads to the conclusion.
While not quite at Mike Dukakis level, that was definitely worse than McCain’s closing.
And, since Obama had the second close, it was a big whiff.
In answer to my rhetorical question above, I think Obama WAS too scripted, and nowhere did it show more than here.
This was his golden platter opportunity to close the deal, especially having the second closing. He knows that the kitchen sink is coming back out from the McCain campaign; he had a good chance to almost put his campaign beyond reach.
And, he didn’t.
If I were an undecided independent voter, I wouldn’t be wondering about his qualifications for the office. I might still be unsold on either his fire in the belly or his big-picture view.
Obama gets a C, too.
Barring a mistake, the election is his. But probably for only one term.
(Oh, Bob Schieffer did not appear in the tank for McCain; I would give him a decent B overall.)
Post-debate III pundit wrap
See this post for my liveblogging of the debate.
Candidate grades are here, in a look not just at this debate, but in context of the looming election deadline.
“Obama did not sit on his lead; it was not a game-changer … for McCain,” Mark Shields says on PBS. Both he and Brooks note Obama’s coolness.
Wonder “what will move him.”
Brooks: “McCain seemed tight.”
Both note little new ground, and neither had much of a big picture.
Clarence Page: Both came out stronger.
Michael Beschloss: McCain hurt himself with the negative attacks. Bush I and Dole diminished themselves against Bill Clinton, he said. Beschloss says the roundtable format makes it worse.
Jim Lehrer: But, Schieffer brought it up.
Page: The issue has largely been put to rest, on Ayers.
Brooks: Palin actually a negative factor. Boy, the rats are deserting the ship.
Looking a bit at other blogs, etc. --
TPM? I don't think McCain looked "seething," but being on the phone and leading an online meeting at the same time as the second half of the meeting, I'm not sure.
FiveThirtyEight says focus groups lean Obama:
Joan Walsh: Palin is driving away more people than she’s bringing in, and McCain didn’t counter that, especially on abortion.
Well, put a fork in Schmuck Talk, he's done.
On the right wing, over at The Corner, Ramesh Ponnuru, perhaps one of few National Review people with a semi-objective brain, says McCain was “spluttering.” Everybody else there is on a McCain tire swing. Will they boot Ramesh just like Christopher Buckley?
As for V.D. Hansen’s complaint that nobody knows who Obama will be… he’ll be a cooler, smoother Bill Clinton neoliberal. Unfortunately.
Candidate grades are here, in a look not just at this debate, but in context of the looming election deadline.
“Obama did not sit on his lead; it was not a game-changer … for McCain,” Mark Shields says on PBS. Both he and Brooks note Obama’s coolness.
Wonder “what will move him.”
Brooks: “McCain seemed tight.”
Both note little new ground, and neither had much of a big picture.
Clarence Page: Both came out stronger.
Michael Beschloss: McCain hurt himself with the negative attacks. Bush I and Dole diminished themselves against Bill Clinton, he said. Beschloss says the roundtable format makes it worse.
Jim Lehrer: But, Schieffer brought it up.
Page: The issue has largely been put to rest, on Ayers.
Brooks: Palin actually a negative factor. Boy, the rats are deserting the ship.
Looking a bit at other blogs, etc. --
TPM? I don't think McCain looked "seething," but being on the phone and leading an online meeting at the same time as the second half of the meeting, I'm not sure.
FiveThirtyEight says focus groups lean Obama:
CNN poll: Obama 58, McCain 31.
CBS undecideds: Obama 53, McCain 22.
Joan Walsh: Palin is driving away more people than she’s bringing in, and McCain didn’t counter that, especially on abortion.
Well, put a fork in Schmuck Talk, he's done.
On the right wing, over at The Corner, Ramesh Ponnuru, perhaps one of few National Review people with a semi-objective brain, says McCain was “spluttering.” Everybody else there is on a McCain tire swing. Will they boot Ramesh just like Christopher Buckley?
As for V.D. Hansen’s complaint that nobody knows who Obama will be… he’ll be a cooler, smoother Bill Clinton neoliberal. Unfortunately.
Presidential debate blogging - Debate III
Candidate grades are here.
How much of THESE:
did we see tonight?
I think it's a no-brainer that Obama simply needs to be Muhammad Ali and play rope-a-dope by leaning back, absorbing blows without letting them tell, and counterpunching when the time is right.
In the "knights of the round table" format, Obama may have a chance of bringing out Mad Jack, especially since McCain is the one who has to come out swinging.
8:02 McCain makes at least an effort at eye contact. (Obama looks more sincere later).
8:04 McCain attacking Paulson, going for “maverick” stance.
8:06 Obama reminds audience that McCain voted FOR bailout.
Then does a good “I agree but I disagree” with McCain’s mortgage plan. And says his plan is broader.
8:11 McCain trying to pin "socialist radical" label on Obama. I would guess it might have a bit of effect, but not much.
8:13 Schieffer is right... good question. We do not have the money.
8:17 Obama does good job of rejecting idea of “across the board freeze” and scalpel vs. hatchet.
8:20 McCain lie No. 1 – state-level “across-the-board freezes” are NOT across-the-board freezes. They exempt many actual and alleged “essential services.”
8:21 McCain – I’m not Bush… can Obama provoke McCain at some point?
8:22 Obama stakes himself as also a “maverick.” And says even Fox News agrees with him on tax issue. Obama seems lighter but yet serious.
8:24 Schieffer asks about campaign nastiness issue – and the “look him in the eye” moment.
8:25ff McCain goes back to “town hall” idea and blames Obama’s rejecting that.
Lie No. 2 McCai goes back to whacking at John Lewis statements, and claims he has always repudiated GOP negativity. NOT TRUE, per the Virginia GOP chair’s unrepudiated statements.
8:28 Obama’s turn – Cites polls thast 2/3 vs. 1/3 on who thinks has the negative campaign. Rejects the town hall idea, and calls up McCain campaign quote about economic policy being a political loser.
8:31 Obama shows just how he DID repudiate Lewis.
8:33 McCain "a few people like that" at every campaign event? I can't think that will fly well with independents. Then, repeats Lie No. 2 about "repudiating everything."
8:33 Three more McCain lies. McCain throws “Hail Mary” with Ayers and ACORN. “Worst voter fraud in history”? Count Ayers as Lie 3, and ACORN as lies 4-5, both for what ACORN is NOT doing and for Obama’s association with them.
8:37 Obama does good counterpunch on Ayers. Then, on ACORN, good distancing.
8:39 McCain – “all the issues.”
Then, “my campaign is about the issues.” Obama laughs… chuckles in the background.
I know time was an issue, but I wonder why Obama didn't bring up Keating Five ... or Gordon Liddy. Forget? Think not important? Or want to hold that for ads only?
8:40 Veep question – excellent!
8:42 Biden defended for policy issues;
8:43 Palin a “role model to women”? Gas pipeline? Even as Russian oil bigwigs are in Alaska as we speak? Old boy network and cronyism?
8:44 Obama’s non-judgmentalism on Palin good, then does a bit more judo.
8:46 Schieffer asks about energy
Duplicity by both by focusing on “Middle East and Venezuela” for oil. Oil is fungible.
8:47 McCain has a bit of a NAFTA comment, but today’s state of the economy prevents him from going down that road. McCain then laundry-lists alt energy sources.
8:49 Obama: “We can’t drill our way out of the problem.” Justifies govt “investment” in Big Three.
Obama then: BushCo with McCain support – “Any trade agreement is a good trade agreement.” Mentions lack of enviro and labor standards. Cites South Korea deal.
8:51 McCain “Obama has never traveled south of our border.” Not even with Bill Ayers?
That said, McCain voted for NAFTA and WTO; Obama gets a pass from not being in the Senate.
8:52 GOOD for Obama on assassinated Columbian labor leaders.
“We have to stand for human rights and make sure people aren’t being targeted for exercising their human rights.”
Then notes he voted FOR Peru deal.
And, that said, I disagree with Big Three loan guarantees. NO, Obama. They’ve been irresponsible for 35 years.
8:55 McCain.. Obama is Herbert Hoover?? Will that play well with Florida seniors, or will it make McCain look old?
8:56 Schieffer on healthcare
8:57ff Obama doing his best to explain a complicated issue in the format of a time-challenged debate. That said, his lack of a mandate means his program won’t work.
8:58 McCain… says Obama will penalize small businesses.
9:03 McCain ... mandates, big government, etc.
9:065 Schieffer on courts, etc.
9;06 McCain says no litmus test. His one possible real appeal to independents, but not believable in light of the debate as a whole.
9:09 Obama – right to privacy should not be subject to state referendum. Other good comments on this issue. "Nobody favors abortion."
Sorry, I’ve been a bit distracted… in an online chatroom and talking to my best friend on the phone. But, catching up from other blogs, I see McCain basically jumped the shark on the abortion issue. Far more than he did with Ayers, even more than he did with ACORN...
Accusing Obama of letting babies die. Sure, that will play to the base, but I think that has to turn off independents who aren't dyed-in-the-wool pro-lifers.
Here’s the background to the McCain bomb-throwing. And, when McCain is borrowing a page from Alan Keyes, it’s not very good.
FactCheck, while broadly agreeing with the NYT on the 2001 and 2002 versions of the Illinois bills, is a bit more critical of Obama’s 2003 vote explanation.
Closings:
McCain – ultimately goes with “service” and riffing on military record.
Obama “Can’t afford failed policies and politics.”
After that, though? Too wonky…. And not passionate enough at the close. Especially with him having the last word.
McCain did look much more personable during this debate, especially the post-debate handshake, than the first two. And, he was more angry than Obama, but I don't think quite as angry as some bloggers claim.
How much of THESE:
did we see tonight?
I think it's a no-brainer that Obama simply needs to be Muhammad Ali and play rope-a-dope by leaning back, absorbing blows without letting them tell, and counterpunching when the time is right.
In the "knights of the round table" format, Obama may have a chance of bringing out Mad Jack, especially since McCain is the one who has to come out swinging.
8:02 McCain makes at least an effort at eye contact. (Obama looks more sincere later).
8:04 McCain attacking Paulson, going for “maverick” stance.
8:06 Obama reminds audience that McCain voted FOR bailout.
Then does a good “I agree but I disagree” with McCain’s mortgage plan. And says his plan is broader.
8:11 McCain trying to pin "socialist radical" label on Obama. I would guess it might have a bit of effect, but not much.
8:13 Schieffer is right... good question. We do not have the money.
8:17 Obama does good job of rejecting idea of “across the board freeze” and scalpel vs. hatchet.
8:20 McCain lie No. 1 – state-level “across-the-board freezes” are NOT across-the-board freezes. They exempt many actual and alleged “essential services.”
8:21 McCain – I’m not Bush… can Obama provoke McCain at some point?
8:22 Obama stakes himself as also a “maverick.” And says even Fox News agrees with him on tax issue. Obama seems lighter but yet serious.
8:24 Schieffer asks about campaign nastiness issue – and the “look him in the eye” moment.
8:25ff McCain goes back to “town hall” idea and blames Obama’s rejecting that.
Lie No. 2 McCai goes back to whacking at John Lewis statements, and claims he has always repudiated GOP negativity. NOT TRUE, per the Virginia GOP chair’s unrepudiated statements.
8:28 Obama’s turn – Cites polls thast 2/3 vs. 1/3 on who thinks has the negative campaign. Rejects the town hall idea, and calls up McCain campaign quote about economic policy being a political loser.
8:31 Obama shows just how he DID repudiate Lewis.
8:33 McCain "a few people like that" at every campaign event? I can't think that will fly well with independents. Then, repeats Lie No. 2 about "repudiating everything."
8:33 Three more McCain lies. McCain throws “Hail Mary” with Ayers and ACORN. “Worst voter fraud in history”? Count Ayers as Lie 3, and ACORN as lies 4-5, both for what ACORN is NOT doing and for Obama’s association with them.
8:37 Obama does good counterpunch on Ayers. Then, on ACORN, good distancing.
8:39 McCain – “all the issues.”
Then, “my campaign is about the issues.” Obama laughs… chuckles in the background.
I know time was an issue, but I wonder why Obama didn't bring up Keating Five ... or Gordon Liddy. Forget? Think not important? Or want to hold that for ads only?
8:40 Veep question – excellent!
8:42 Biden defended for policy issues;
8:43 Palin a “role model to women”? Gas pipeline? Even as Russian oil bigwigs are in Alaska as we speak? Old boy network and cronyism?
8:44 Obama’s non-judgmentalism on Palin good, then does a bit more judo.
8:46 Schieffer asks about energy
Duplicity by both by focusing on “Middle East and Venezuela” for oil. Oil is fungible.
8:47 McCain has a bit of a NAFTA comment, but today’s state of the economy prevents him from going down that road. McCain then laundry-lists alt energy sources.
8:49 Obama: “We can’t drill our way out of the problem.” Justifies govt “investment” in Big Three.
Obama then: BushCo with McCain support – “Any trade agreement is a good trade agreement.” Mentions lack of enviro and labor standards. Cites South Korea deal.
8:51 McCain “Obama has never traveled south of our border.” Not even with Bill Ayers?
That said, McCain voted for NAFTA and WTO; Obama gets a pass from not being in the Senate.
8:52 GOOD for Obama on assassinated Columbian labor leaders.
“We have to stand for human rights and make sure people aren’t being targeted for exercising their human rights.”
Then notes he voted FOR Peru deal.
And, that said, I disagree with Big Three loan guarantees. NO, Obama. They’ve been irresponsible for 35 years.
8:55 McCain.. Obama is Herbert Hoover?? Will that play well with Florida seniors, or will it make McCain look old?
8:56 Schieffer on healthcare
8:57ff Obama doing his best to explain a complicated issue in the format of a time-challenged debate. That said, his lack of a mandate means his program won’t work.
8:58 McCain… says Obama will penalize small businesses.
9:03 McCain ... mandates, big government, etc.
9:065 Schieffer on courts, etc.
9;06 McCain says no litmus test. His one possible real appeal to independents, but not believable in light of the debate as a whole.
9:09 Obama – right to privacy should not be subject to state referendum. Other good comments on this issue. "Nobody favors abortion."
Sorry, I’ve been a bit distracted… in an online chatroom and talking to my best friend on the phone. But, catching up from other blogs, I see McCain basically jumped the shark on the abortion issue. Far more than he did with Ayers, even more than he did with ACORN...
Accusing Obama of letting babies die. Sure, that will play to the base, but I think that has to turn off independents who aren't dyed-in-the-wool pro-lifers.
Here’s the background to the McCain bomb-throwing. And, when McCain is borrowing a page from Alan Keyes, it’s not very good.
FactCheck, while broadly agreeing with the NYT on the 2001 and 2002 versions of the Illinois bills, is a bit more critical of Obama’s 2003 vote explanation.
Closings:
McCain – ultimately goes with “service” and riffing on military record.
Obama “Can’t afford failed policies and politics.”
After that, though? Too wonky…. And not passionate enough at the close. Especially with him having the last word.
McCain did look much more personable during this debate, especially the post-debate handshake, than the first two. And, he was more angry than Obama, but I don't think quite as angry as some bloggers claim.
Schieffer promises to be debate bulldog
CBS’s Bob Schieffer, tonight’s debate moderator, has indicated he will call out McCain and Obama if they don’t sufficiently answer debate questions.
On the other hand, how much of all of this is about getting the candidates to provide more information, and how much is about debate moderators looking good to their peers?
Jeff Greenfield weighs in on the benefits of the “Knights of the Round Table” format, which will be used tonight.
On the other hand, how much of all of this is about getting the candidates to provide more information, and how much is about debate moderators looking good to their peers?
Jeff Greenfield weighs in on the benefits of the “Knights of the Round Table” format, which will be used tonight.
October 08, 2008
Commission on Presidential Debates needs to adapt to ’Net
So say a wide group of bloggers, both the Obama and McCain campaigns and more.
Take last night’s town hall debate. Why not have much more Internet question submission, and other ijavascript:void(0)nteractivity.
Bloggers? They want the commission to loosen its copyright on debate footage further.
Congresswoman Rosa L. DeLauro and Congressman John Dingell wrote the FCC, saying the Communications Act requires that sponsors of such programming be identified.
Take last night’s town hall debate. Why not have much more Internet question submission, and other ijavascript:void(0)nteractivity.
Bloggers? They want the commission to loosen its copyright on debate footage further.
Congresswoman Rosa L. DeLauro and Congressman John Dingell wrote the FCC, saying the Communications Act requires that sponsors of such programming be identified.
October 07, 2008
Presidential town-hall debate analysis
The more I reflect, the less satisfaction I have with Obama’s healthcare answer
First, Brokaw gets the same gentleman's C that I gave Gwen Ifill last week. I don't think he was totally in McCain's pocket.
Second, David Brooks was not in McCain's pocket, saying Obama won on points. Brooks was the first of many who noted McCain did not "take the gloves off."
Is McCain tired? Second-guessing himself a bit? Willing to let Em-Barracuda fight bare-knuckles?
McCain's one new proposal? Sounds nice, but Obama can counter in a commercial that McCain didn't propose that in the Senate bailout discussion.
FiveThirtyEight.com, on its debate live-blogging, says CNN’s focus group of voters broke well for Obama.
All Obama needed was a tie in a debate format that probably did favor McCain somewhat.
That said, both Sean and Nate at FiveThirtyEight (a Democratic-leaning website, I should note) said they thought Obama won more convincingly than in the first debate.
Final thought here.
Both McCain and Obama were weak on healthcare. In my liveblogging, I noted that Obama has left himself exposed on the “mandate” issue without getting to full coverage, which Hillary Clinton exposed.
If there was one area that called for passion from him, this was it and he whiffed.
He also whiffed by not noting that McCain plans major whacks to Medicare to finance tax cuts elsewhere.
McCain didn’t rebut the robbing Peter to pay Paul charge, but he sped past it well enough he didn’t come off too badly.
So, Sean and Nate, gotta disagree. A tie to a slight win for Obama, with any sort of a win, beyond a tie, being gravy for him, sure. But, a big win. Not a chance.
That said, we’re at four weeks and counting.
First, Brokaw gets the same gentleman's C that I gave Gwen Ifill last week. I don't think he was totally in McCain's pocket.
Second, David Brooks was not in McCain's pocket, saying Obama won on points. Brooks was the first of many who noted McCain did not "take the gloves off."
Is McCain tired? Second-guessing himself a bit? Willing to let Em-Barracuda fight bare-knuckles?
McCain's one new proposal? Sounds nice, but Obama can counter in a commercial that McCain didn't propose that in the Senate bailout discussion.
FiveThirtyEight.com, on its debate live-blogging, says CNN’s focus group of voters broke well for Obama.
All Obama needed was a tie in a debate format that probably did favor McCain somewhat.
That said, both Sean and Nate at FiveThirtyEight (a Democratic-leaning website, I should note) said they thought Obama won more convincingly than in the first debate.
Final thought here.
Both McCain and Obama were weak on healthcare. In my liveblogging, I noted that Obama has left himself exposed on the “mandate” issue without getting to full coverage, which Hillary Clinton exposed.
If there was one area that called for passion from him, this was it and he whiffed.
He also whiffed by not noting that McCain plans major whacks to Medicare to finance tax cuts elsewhere.
McCain didn’t rebut the robbing Peter to pay Paul charge, but he sped past it well enough he didn’t come off too badly.
So, Sean and Nate, gotta disagree. A tie to a slight win for Obama, with any sort of a win, beyond a tie, being gravy for him, sure. But, a big win. Not a chance.
That said, we’re at four weeks and counting.
Presidential town-hall debate blogging
My wrap -- from second half of debate, I'd say Obama B/B-minus and McCain B-minus/C-plus-plus.
Catching up, from TPM and WM, I wouldn't call Brokaw a whiner.
I'd call him auditioning to be the next John McLaughlin.
I think, from what I've seen so far, Obama's key here is to be "less cool" and to be personable. That includes reaching out to people, talking about things in a non-wonky fashion, and disagreeing with McCain, sharply where needed, without sounding sharp.
8:52 Obama does a great one, saying Chamber of Commerce sez McCain plan wrong.
8:56 Obama -- right is good, especially when tied in with size of American economy. That said, his "mandate" idea is tough, tough to explain in town hall format.
9:01 Obama good verbal judo on "I don't understand" foreign policy.
9:08 Great question by Katie... I'm not sure how close the Cambodia analogy is, let alone if she really believes that or if she's a McCain sympathizer trying to monkey-wrench Obama, but it's still a great question.
9:12-14 Not sure whether Obama should have tied Palin's support for his POV in with the statement on Pakistan -- which I still disagree with. That said, the "bomb, bomb Iran" riposte was good.
9:17-18 Both candidates lie like a lazy dog on Brokaw's Afghanistan follow-up. They ignore the question, they ignore how serious the situation is, they ignore how much effort it would take to even possibly reverse the current situation, they ignore how vulnerable that would leave our high-tech, oil-guzzling armed forces, they ignore British and Russian history, etc.
They're both wrong six ways from Sunday.
9:27 Iran and nukes -- both are schlepping for votes here. And neither has a better answer than in the first debate.
Summary? No gaffes by Obama, at least as far as the mainstream POV. Obama came off reasonably personable; also, the height advantage helps more here than when both candidates are behind podiums.
Catching up, from TPM and WM, I wouldn't call Brokaw a whiner.
I'd call him auditioning to be the next John McLaughlin.
I think, from what I've seen so far, Obama's key here is to be "less cool" and to be personable. That includes reaching out to people, talking about things in a non-wonky fashion, and disagreeing with McCain, sharply where needed, without sounding sharp.
8:52 Obama does a great one, saying Chamber of Commerce sez McCain plan wrong.
8:56 Obama -- right is good, especially when tied in with size of American economy. That said, his "mandate" idea is tough, tough to explain in town hall format.
9:01 Obama good verbal judo on "I don't understand" foreign policy.
9:08 Great question by Katie... I'm not sure how close the Cambodia analogy is, let alone if she really believes that or if she's a McCain sympathizer trying to monkey-wrench Obama, but it's still a great question.
9:12-14 Not sure whether Obama should have tied Palin's support for his POV in with the statement on Pakistan -- which I still disagree with. That said, the "bomb, bomb Iran" riposte was good.
9:17-18 Both candidates lie like a lazy dog on Brokaw's Afghanistan follow-up. They ignore the question, they ignore how serious the situation is, they ignore how much effort it would take to even possibly reverse the current situation, they ignore how vulnerable that would leave our high-tech, oil-guzzling armed forces, they ignore British and Russian history, etc.
They're both wrong six ways from Sunday.
9:27 Iran and nukes -- both are schlepping for votes here. And neither has a better answer than in the first debate.
Summary? No gaffes by Obama, at least as far as the mainstream POV. Obama came off reasonably personable; also, the height advantage helps more here than when both candidates are behind podiums.
October 01, 2008
Debate watchers notice ‘OLD’ John McCain
Pew asked registered voters who watched last Friday’s presidential debate for one-word impressions of both candidates. “Old” was the second-most common word for McCain, at 38 percent.
That said, the No. 1 word for McCain is “experienced,” which can at times, for better or worse, be the flip side of “old.”
Oh, and Mr. “Experienced,” we’re still waiting for your full medical records. As for Mayor Whazzup,
Trig Palin’s birth certificate would be a good starting point.
That said, the No. 1 word for McCain is “experienced,” which can at times, for better or worse, be the flip side of “old.”
Oh, and Mr. “Experienced,” we’re still waiting for your full medical records. As for Mayor Whazzup,
Trig Palin’s birth certificate would be a good starting point.
September 28, 2008
‘Horseshit’ John McCain
Did Mad Jack actually use that word not once, but twice, sotto voce, during Friday’s debate?
At the Guardian, Michael Tomasky thinks he said it too, and wonders if this cold be the equivalent of Al Gore’s infamous “sigh.”
At the Guardian, Michael Tomasky thinks he said it too, and wonders if this cold be the equivalent of Al Gore’s infamous “sigh.”
September 27, 2008
Intrade Gadfly-style for the week of Sept. 27
Both FiveThirtyEight.com and Electoral-Vote give Obama a majority in the electoral vote, with FiveThirtyEight.com giving him an outright majority in the popular vote, too.
That said, Electoral-Vote now projects the Senate breakout for the 111th Congress as 58-42. That’s 52 strong, 3 week and 3 barely. The GOP’s projected 42 has 1 barely and 2 weak, so, it is possible.
So, I’ll bump odds of 60 Senate Dems counting Lieberman to 15 percent. And, I’ll put 60 without him on the radar screen at 3 percent.
That’s still as high as I rank Rick Noriega’s chances here in Texas. National Guard down time for Ike, lack of money, and a less-than-dynamic campaign style mean sure defeat unless Cornyn has a huge gaffe in debates or Obama parachutes into Texas for more than just big-donor checks.
My odds on Obama-McCain are 56-44; as for the first debate, I give Obama a slight edge while saying neither one did that well. McCain had five or so clear lies of his own alone, to Obama’s one.
We had three bipartisan lies, on who started the Georgia-Russia war, on mistranslating Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and on throwing around tax breaks we can’t afford.
That said, Electoral-Vote now projects the Senate breakout for the 111th Congress as 58-42. That’s 52 strong, 3 week and 3 barely. The GOP’s projected 42 has 1 barely and 2 weak, so, it is possible.
So, I’ll bump odds of 60 Senate Dems counting Lieberman to 15 percent. And, I’ll put 60 without him on the radar screen at 3 percent.
That’s still as high as I rank Rick Noriega’s chances here in Texas. National Guard down time for Ike, lack of money, and a less-than-dynamic campaign style mean sure defeat unless Cornyn has a huge gaffe in debates or Obama parachutes into Texas for more than just big-donor checks.
My odds on Obama-McCain are 56-44; as for the first debate, I give Obama a slight edge while saying neither one did that well. McCain had five or so clear lies of his own alone, to Obama’s one.
We had three bipartisan lies, on who started the Georgia-Russia war, on mistranslating Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and on throwing around tax breaks we can’t afford.
September 26, 2008
Live-blogging the first presidential debate
Obama shows "competence" on foreign policy vs. McCain "experience," but whiffs or passes on numerous chances to pin tail of Bush to plans of McCain
8:00 McCain tries to avoid talking about lenders' bailout and go for sympathetic father figure by talking about Ted Kennedy being rushed to hospital.
8:07 First McCain lie – that House GOP was excluded from lenders' bailout discussion.
8:10 McCain doesn't go POW, but does invoke Ike in a way totally unconnected to matters at hand.
8:14 McCain trying to separate himself from "GOP."
8:17ff Obama misses BIG opening to bring up Palin pushing for Alaska earmarks.
8:22 Obama nails McCain on effective tax rates for business taxes.
8:23 Obama also gets McCain on taxing healthcare.
8:23ff... Obama seemed stiff at the start and loosening up now.
8:24 When has McCain ever before mentioned supporting a flat tax, or a quasi-flat tax?
8:24 Second clear McCain lie, that Obama wants to start tax hikes at $42K.
8:26 I thought this was a foreign policy debate? Lehrer's determined to get into domestic policy.
8:29 McCain third lie, that Obama is "the most liberal member of the Senate."
8:33 "Freeze spending" a typical conservative gimmick.
8:33 McCain now goes Jesse Helms on looking to cut foreign policy.
8:34 Reprocessing nuclear fuel opposed by a LOT of people, Sen. McCain.
8:34 McCain drops, subtly, the Hillary Clinton card.
8:35 Obama does good framing job, "When I am president..."
8:37 Obama pins Bush tail on McCain.
8:40 McCain won't admit Iraq a mistake; still defines it in Vietnam "win" terms.
8:43 McCain oversells the Surge; the reason it appeared to have worked is primarily because rebels laid low/moved around the country.
8:44 "John, you like to pretend like the war started in 2007 ... you said the war would be quick and easy ... you said we would be greeted as liberators. ...
"So, if the question is about ... using our military ... we can look at our judgment."
8:48-49 I think Obama still has given too much daylight on whether the Surge succeeded or not, but his past words, giving too much credit to the Surge, are on the record.
8:53 McCain seems to score a point by saying "You don't just announce things like (unilateral strikes against Pakistan)."
But... he ignores that George Bush did just that.
8:57 Pakistan a failed state? I disagree, McCain. That gives Musharraf way too much credit, as well as giving authoritarian government a thumbs-up.
That said, regular readers here know that I think BOTH ARE WRONG on Afghanistan.
9:00 Obama "No soldier dies in vain," as a refute of McCain playing a backdoor version of the "patriot card."
That said, I'll go Ted Rall and say, hell, no, PLENTY of soldiers do die in vain. About 57,000 died in vain in Vietnam. Ho Chi Minh in 1954 was nationalist first, communist second, and about 20 years of U.S. intervention got nothing in terms of geopolitical settlement that we couldn't have had in 1954.
9:04 Time for vote pandering – Jim Lehrer brings up Iran.
McCain rises to the bait with "second Holocaust" comment.
Fourth McCain lie – that Iran is responsible for the rise in improvised explosive devices in Iraq. That was shot down a full year ago.
9:08 Fifth McCain lie – that Iranian President Ahmadinejad is talking about the "extermination of Israel" in New York tonight. First, he didn't do that this spring, despite the wet dream misquoting/mistranslating of previous statements of his. And, he's not doing that tonight, nor did he do that in the UN General Assembly earlier this week. (Lie repeated at 9:13.)
9:12 Obama punks McCain over his Zapatero "misstatements" of last week.
9:15 McCain is either repeating lie No. 5 or just an idiot.
9:16 Lehrer goes to Russia – get ready for both candidates to lie about Georgia.
9:16 Obama tells his first lie, about who started the Russia-Georgia war. He does qualify it by saying he doesn't want a Cold War.
9:18 McCain tells the lie more strenuously, although he then gets at a major truth – it's about energy. That's why both want Georgia in NATO. So, here, Obama has a hypocrisy factor – Georgia is Iraq in the middle of the Caucacus.
9:22ff Wrangling over alt-energy. McCain is on the side of Big Oil through tax breaks if nothing else, and is not as "green" in general as he makes himself out to be.
9:26 Lehrer asks about 9/11.
9:27 McCain talks about 9/11 commission. That would be the commission whose chair, Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, deliberately stalled out Part II of its investigation and report due to political reasons.
9:30 McCain lie six – that Reagan's Star Wars forced the Soviet Union to his knees.
9:34 Good closing by Obama to tackle a bit of his foreign heritage before the national audience. Should he have gone further?
Postgame - on PBS. I do agree with David Brooks that Obama can still be a little distant at times.
That said, McCain seemed determined to talk around, rather than talk about, the economy in the first part of the debate.
Michael Beschloss is right that Obama didn't tie Bush to McCain as well as he could have.
Mark Shields follows that up with noting how much McCain strived to separate himself from Bush.
Overall grade? Obama a B, McCain a C++. But, because Obama didn't score that high, and didn't score any telling points, I don't expect much of a bump out of this.
It's a good thing Obama's camp soft-pedaled their expections of him, because, whether due to flop sweat or his singing a hymn from the gospel of Kumbaya, he blew some opportunities.
Finally, both candidates are lying in their tax reduction talk; we can't afford it.
8:00 McCain tries to avoid talking about lenders' bailout and go for sympathetic father figure by talking about Ted Kennedy being rushed to hospital.
8:07 First McCain lie – that House GOP was excluded from lenders' bailout discussion.
8:10 McCain doesn't go POW, but does invoke Ike in a way totally unconnected to matters at hand.
8:14 McCain trying to separate himself from "GOP."
8:17ff Obama misses BIG opening to bring up Palin pushing for Alaska earmarks.
8:22 Obama nails McCain on effective tax rates for business taxes.
8:23 Obama also gets McCain on taxing healthcare.
8:23ff... Obama seemed stiff at the start and loosening up now.
8:24 When has McCain ever before mentioned supporting a flat tax, or a quasi-flat tax?
8:24 Second clear McCain lie, that Obama wants to start tax hikes at $42K.
8:26 I thought this was a foreign policy debate? Lehrer's determined to get into domestic policy.
8:29 McCain third lie, that Obama is "the most liberal member of the Senate."
8:33 "Freeze spending" a typical conservative gimmick.
8:33 McCain now goes Jesse Helms on looking to cut foreign policy.
8:34 Reprocessing nuclear fuel opposed by a LOT of people, Sen. McCain.
8:34 McCain drops, subtly, the Hillary Clinton card.
8:35 Obama does good framing job, "When I am president..."
8:37 Obama pins Bush tail on McCain.
8:40 McCain won't admit Iraq a mistake; still defines it in Vietnam "win" terms.
8:43 McCain oversells the Surge; the reason it appeared to have worked is primarily because rebels laid low/moved around the country.
8:44 "John, you like to pretend like the war started in 2007 ... you said the war would be quick and easy ... you said we would be greeted as liberators. ...
"So, if the question is about ... using our military ... we can look at our judgment."
8:48-49 I think Obama still has given too much daylight on whether the Surge succeeded or not, but his past words, giving too much credit to the Surge, are on the record.
8:53 McCain seems to score a point by saying "You don't just announce things like (unilateral strikes against Pakistan)."
But... he ignores that George Bush did just that.
8:57 Pakistan a failed state? I disagree, McCain. That gives Musharraf way too much credit, as well as giving authoritarian government a thumbs-up.
That said, regular readers here know that I think BOTH ARE WRONG on Afghanistan.
9:00 Obama "No soldier dies in vain," as a refute of McCain playing a backdoor version of the "patriot card."
That said, I'll go Ted Rall and say, hell, no, PLENTY of soldiers do die in vain. About 57,000 died in vain in Vietnam. Ho Chi Minh in 1954 was nationalist first, communist second, and about 20 years of U.S. intervention got nothing in terms of geopolitical settlement that we couldn't have had in 1954.
9:04 Time for vote pandering – Jim Lehrer brings up Iran.
McCain rises to the bait with "second Holocaust" comment.
Fourth McCain lie – that Iran is responsible for the rise in improvised explosive devices in Iraq. That was shot down a full year ago.
9:08 Fifth McCain lie – that Iranian President Ahmadinejad is talking about the "extermination of Israel" in New York tonight. First, he didn't do that this spring, despite the wet dream misquoting/mistranslating of previous statements of his. And, he's not doing that tonight, nor did he do that in the UN General Assembly earlier this week. (Lie repeated at 9:13.)
9:12 Obama punks McCain over his Zapatero "misstatements" of last week.
9:15 McCain is either repeating lie No. 5 or just an idiot.
9:16 Lehrer goes to Russia – get ready for both candidates to lie about Georgia.
9:16 Obama tells his first lie, about who started the Russia-Georgia war. He does qualify it by saying he doesn't want a Cold War.
9:18 McCain tells the lie more strenuously, although he then gets at a major truth – it's about energy. That's why both want Georgia in NATO. So, here, Obama has a hypocrisy factor – Georgia is Iraq in the middle of the Caucacus.
9:22ff Wrangling over alt-energy. McCain is on the side of Big Oil through tax breaks if nothing else, and is not as "green" in general as he makes himself out to be.
9:26 Lehrer asks about 9/11.
9:27 McCain talks about 9/11 commission. That would be the commission whose chair, Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, deliberately stalled out Part II of its investigation and report due to political reasons.
9:30 McCain lie six – that Reagan's Star Wars forced the Soviet Union to his knees.
9:34 Good closing by Obama to tackle a bit of his foreign heritage before the national audience. Should he have gone further?
Postgame - on PBS. I do agree with David Brooks that Obama can still be a little distant at times.
That said, McCain seemed determined to talk around, rather than talk about, the economy in the first part of the debate.
Michael Beschloss is right that Obama didn't tie Bush to McCain as well as he could have.
Mark Shields follows that up with noting how much McCain strived to separate himself from Bush.
Overall grade? Obama a B, McCain a C++. But, because Obama didn't score that high, and didn't score any telling points, I don't expect much of a bump out of this.
It's a good thing Obama's camp soft-pedaled their expections of him, because, whether due to flop sweat or his singing a hymn from the gospel of Kumbaya, he blew some opportunities.
Finally, both candidates are lying in their tax reduction talk; we can't afford it.
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