#Masters2018 thoughts and semi-predictions

No, Red Shirt won't cover his apparel with a 5th green jacket. (Mono P/Flickr)

First off, straight out of the chute? I'd like Rory to win. Would be great for him to get that career Grand Slam and to put his 2011 collapse out of mind. Would also be great for a game of golf where casual fans either have to eventually let go of Tiger Woods Red Shirt or else stop being even casual fans. If Rory gets his slam (and assuming Philly Mick doesn't get "revenge" at this year's US Open at Shinnecock or wins any US Open) you then have the "rivalry" of Jordan Speith needing the PGA for his slam. And other young guns like Thomas and Koepka to at least add a second Slam win to their games.

That said, bearing in mind what Hank Haney and several others have said about how it's a lefties course today? (There's over 390K hits for that on Google; one piece even notes lefties have a specific advantage at the nerve-rattling 12th. Many people, including triple winner Nick Faldo, say that modern equipment makes a cut easier to hit than a draw. In that same piece, Phil agrees that 12, especially, is better for lefties.) Phil has won again, but I don't think he has the length to contend there. Bubba Watson, on the other hand, has gotten hot and straight himself recently. He might be my No. 1 as far as likelihood, Justin Rose 2, Rory 3, Jason Day 4 .... 

Tiger ... 10th? 15th? He's got the length, and earlier this year has been OK with the putter. But, driving accuracy sucks. Driving is indeed for dough at Augusta National. But, what if accuracy offsets that? Or a small putting sample size goes awry? Or that Augusta's walking length, with hills ... well, if not injures a back, at least tires it a bit? Phil? 15th?

Out of the full field, I don't see too, too many other serious contenders. Speith appears too far away yet from being a contender, even though this course seems to like him. Rain is in the forecast for Saturday, along with winds approaching 20mph, though removed for today. But it did rain fairly hard Wednesday morning. That and a cool start Sunday could hurt a short player like him. OTOH, Zach Johnson won in 2007 when Sunday was almost frigid. And, don't forget that Rory's had a good record on majors with rainy tracks.

It's a small field, once you remove older champs like Olazabel, Langer, Singh, Immelman, Lyle and Woosnam who won't make the cut. Faldo, interestingly, is firmly retired. Maybe in a few years, he'll be added to Nicklaus and Player as an honorary starter.

Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm and Thomas Pieters are the few others that jump out at me for this year. Henrik Stenson and Paul Casey as sleeper picks do nothing for me.

And speaking of lefties, will Li Yuxin take top amateur honors?

Dear PGA, golf writers, Spieth and McIlroy, yes, we have a rivalry

Jordan Spieth (corrected throughout), after winning the Masters, downplayed the idea that he was in Rory McIlroy's league.

Rory, the week before the just-passed U.S. Open, did a LeBron James and claimed to be the best in golf.

Well, Rory couldn't putt well and LeBron James couldn't carry a team forced to start Matthew Dellavedova and others.

That said, let's start with some 21st century golf history.

Since the turn of the calendar, five people have won back-to-back majors. Tiger Woods has done it multiple times, most recently at the 2006 Open and PGA. Phil did it before him once, with the 2005 PGA and 2006 Masters.

We've had three others, all since Tiger's last major.

The first is Padraig Harrington, with the 2008 Open and PGA.

And, in the last year, we've had the last four majors won with two back-to-backs.

And, both McIlroy and Spieth are, at a minimum, better than Harrington and at least as good as Philly Mick. Both of them.

We have a rivalry,  And, yes, per this Irish Times piece, it's what we've been waiting for. And, Spieth is still downplaying it somewhat, but not as much as two months ago. Whether it's true humility, a psychological control mechanism for himself, a bit of anti-Rory or a combo of all of the above and more, I don't know. But, Jordan? You're part of a rivalry now.

Further proof of that? Spieth has closed McIlroy's once-massive gap in the Overall World Golf Rankings to less than two points.

Everybody's been wondering if Rory is the next Tiger or Jack. What if, instead, he's the next Arnie, aka a step up from Phil, and Speith is the next Tiger or Jack? After all, after two early U.S. Open wins, a lot of people thought Ernie Els was the next wunderkind, and Tiger then blew his doors off.

Back to the current rivalry, and Rory's comments a week ago.

Golf is an individual, not a team sport. Rory's not lugging around Delly, the highly inconsistent J.R. Smith, or the players formerly known as Mike Miller and Shawn Marion. He's in this solo.

Sure, Rory's arguably got the best swing in the game today. But, maybe he's not as much a "grinder" as Spieth. Or he may let putting go by the wayside at times. In any case, maybe he needs the focus a real rivalry brings. And, maybe, per the last part of that last link, Jordan will have his own struggles in dealing with a new level of fame. Time's going to tell soon enough.

Spieth is already starting to enter the higher stratosphere, getting some free swag from Lions wideout Calvin Johnson, aka Megatron, after a shout-out to him. (And giving a shout-out to Stephen Curry.)

Finally, Spieth has Michael Greller. Rory doesn't.

It's arguable that Steve Williams helped Tiger indeed on winning a couple of his closer majors. The same may be true now.

My #USOpen2015 picks, prop bets, etc.

I'm enough of a golf fan that I usually do a blog post ahead of each of the four major tournaments.

And, we're at U.S. Open time this weekend, at a visually stunning course at Chambers Bay, which will not be your father's U.S. Open. I think maybe we should call it "linksy" instead of a full-blown links, but it's similar enough. I think it's more of a true links than Whistling Straits in Wisconsin, home of two previous PGAs as well as this year's.  Certainly, with the possibility of oceanside weather, it's more linksy than any course in Wisconsin.

Between that, its length, and Tiger Woods' impression that every hole feels like it's playing uphill (surely, Tiger, the par-3 with a 100-foot drop doesn't feel that way, does it?) it's going to be a challenge. At the same time, while many applauded, some worried about the tricked-out Pinehurst a year ago, and it turned out tame. Beyond that, there's no rain in the forecast, no wind above 12mph or so, and no full sun until Saturday. And, Rory McIlroy says that lofted irons, rather than run-up ground balls, are still in play.

That said, I mentioned Red Shirt, so off to prop bets.

Tiger I put at 50-50 to make/miss the cut. The same is true for Ian James Poulter, just because he's being Poulteresque.

Winning score? I'll go with 1 over. I'll go with half a dozen snowmen on individual hole scores. I'll go with three scores of, say 83 or worse. But, I don't think this place is going to blow up. Looks like no British Open-type weather. With no full sun until Saturday, greens may stay fairly slow.

Now that I've written TW off, what about some other players?

First, I swat down the touting of Jim Furyk by some. This is NOT his type of U.S. Open. Too, too long. He might not make the cut either. I also don't see this as a Steve Stricker place. Especially on Furyk, national golf writers should know better.

D.J. Johnson? Call me when he actually wins a major.

Ditto for Rickie Fowler.

Jordan Speith? While his caddie has looped the course, no, young'uns like him don't win back-to-back majors. That said, said caddie, Michael Greller, has good analysis of what he thinks will be the toughest holes.

Without picking a winner, or saying it will for sure come from this group, I'm going to tag three.

One is Rory. I'm assuming his Eurotour missed cuts are primarily fatigue. I'll secondly assume that this isn't so linksy as to make him lose focus or whatever, per his own words above. And, if those words aren't enough, he's also talking smack on the level of LeBron.

The second is Adam Scott. Steve Williams back on the bag, slow greens to help him dodge his dodgy putting, and surely a "legacy" desire to win a second major.

The third is Phil Mickelson. Philly Mick finally got links right at Muirfield. He's rounding into shape, has motivation, and could just pull it off.

As for the course? I do agree with Andy North that 1 and 18, which can be set up as either a par 4 or a par 5, should have the day's setup announced in advance, like the day before.