Texas 2012 primary observations

Just a few thoughts from last night’s fun, or, “fun.”

1. Let’s not forget that, depending on what the DC Court of Appeals eventually says, we could have more redistricting fun in 2014.

2. Name recognition still matters … even if you’re not an incumbent, like Ciro Rodriguez and even Paul Sadler. Maybe even Roger Williams in the “new” Congressional District 25, it seems.

3. At least some Democrats still want progressive options. That doesn’t include you, Silvestre Reyes.

4. Tea party nuttery is alive and well. Will it be “alive” enough to help Ted Cruz in the GOP Senate runoff? I doubt it, but who knows. Will Leppert make a formal endorsement of Dewhurst or not?

5. Let’s see what the Greens do in two weeks.

6. Will Texas be “blue” by 2030 due to Latino influence? First, Latinos aren’t monolithic; Mexican Americans are different from Cuban Americans like Cruz. Second, even, say, Mexican Americans aren’t as solidly Democratic as African Americans. Third, it’s probably overstated, but an old rule of thumb says, that as far as numbers versus actual turnout, one white voter equals two blacks equals three Hispanics. So, I would offer a tentative “no” to that issue.

What's wrong with Texas Democrats? (Updated)

It would be easy to point at state level offices, like uncontested Supreme Court races, or a bland list of U.S. Senate candidates, despite Dems having a few decent names at the Texas Senate level. (Or, to look at the new U.S. House District in the Metroplex and know that, if a Hispanic is to be "the" candidate, the wrong Garcia, Domingo rather than Elba, is running.

But, where the rubber really hits the road is Burnet County.

Yes, pretty conservative. Yes, fairly rural. But, not that far from Austin. And, surely at least a few of the rich retirees on the Highland Lakes would consider voting for a Democrat, seeing the nutty resolutions the Burnet County GOP passed in convention.

But, there are no Democrats running. (Meanwhile, that's not stopping a party "rally"; see below.)

By that, I do not mean that Democrats have no contested local-level primary contests.

I mean that NO DEMOCRATS are running, period, for two county commission seats, sheriff, county attorney, district attorney or district judge. None.

In Burnet County, in all local races, the GOP primary is the general election. (There's no Green or Libertarian candidates listed.)

When you can't get one person to run in more than half a dozen different races, you've got a problem.

Update, May 7: Meanwhile, area Democrats are planning a rally in Marble Falls' Johnson Park May 19.

Really? A rally for what? Or, more accurately, a rally for WHOM?

You have no local candidates.

And, you're holding a rally? What are you rallying for?

Hail to the new Torturer in Chief Obama?

Hmm. Seems like Preznit Look Forward, Not Backward, may have yet more of Bush's War on Terra continuity on his hands.

U.S. troops surrendering captured Afghans to sites where it's known people are tortured?

"There is compelling evidence that at least some U.S. forces or personnel continue to transfer individuals to NDS Kandahar despite not only a widely acknowledged risk of torture but also evidence that detainees transferred to NDS Kandahar by U.S. forces have been subjected to torture," according to the report.

Don't tell me this isn't known higher up the food chain. Exactly how high, on civilian as well as military sides, is the question.

And, let's see how Preznit Look Forward spins this one, with his constitutional law skills. Let's also see how he spins it on the foreign policy side with Our Man in Kabul, Hamid (Don't Say I'm Off My Meds) Karzai.

Ask me again why I'm voting Green again.

Will Preznit Kumbaya talk to House GOP on budget deal?

So now, House Republicans are threatening to derail last year's budget/debt control deal?And, Obama's response? "OOoh, that could cause a shutdown." Duh, that is kind of what they want, isn't it?

That said, the House GOP leadership may not want such a battle, even if rank and file members do. But, the clueless sincerity, or whatever, with which he approaches this issue boggles the mind. This was an immediate opening to pre-empt the political attack angle and he blew it.

Shove those Texas elections back further

It looks like an April primary election in Texas is officially dead. That, in turn, could mean that the state Republican and Democratic parties are on the hook for major hotel and convention center reservation bills, if they have to push back their original convention dates. That's not to mention the waste of state moneys with delayed primaries, etc.

A May primary date would be "less bad" than a June one, and just maybe would allow the state parties to hold conventions on schedule. On the other hand, a June one would mean a shorter general election.


Now, will Texas Dems push this money mismanagement issue in the general election? Oh, I forgot, the Democratic Party is nearly dormant in Texas at the statewide level, so there may not be a lot of protesting from state-level candidates.

At least state senate District 10 appears to have been settled. That means we are primarily looking at Congressional districts, then state House ones.

Bernanke continues to put incremental stamp on Fed

First, with inflation hawks like Richard Fisher now off the Federal Reserve's policy board, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke can stop worrying about their hyperfears about nonexistent hyperinflation.

So, he can also say interest rates will stay near zero, albeit indicating he expects recovery to be slow.

More importantly, in a sense, is this increased transparency:

In a separate set of statements, the Fed said that 11 of the 17 members of the committee expected that the Fed would raise interest rates at the end of that period. It noted that the committee expects growth to accelerate over the next three years, from a maximum pace of 2.7 percent this year to a maximum pace of 3.2 percent next year and up to 4 percent in 2014. 

Alan Greenspan never would have even considered making such an announcement.

Instead, he would have kept inner workings of the Fed secret, mumbled some shit-in-one-hand, St. Alan of Greenspan oracularity to Congress on the other and pretended he knew what he meant.

Of course, Bernanke has prodded Congress to do more for the economy than it has. That's not happening, at the earliest, before most Congressional GOP primary races are out of the way, and even after that, is likely to still have a fair degree of GOP BS, only a shade or two lighter on tea party dogma.

But, without getting specific, Big Ben said the Fed will consider more stimulus moves if necessary. Again, having the likes of Fisher out of the way  helps.

But, not so good news from the Fed for Dear Leader. The unemployment rate is only expected to drop to 8.2 percent during the year. I'm sure Obama would feel better, even with Richie Rich Romney or Newt-bar Gingrich as his opponent, if it were below 8.0.

SCOTUS gives Texas GOP 2/3 a loaf

That's my briefer take on the Supreme Court's ruling on the Texas redistricting lawsuit.

The Supremes said the San Antonio federal district court should have considered the original legislature-drawn redistricting maps, and that it should have confined the focus of its ruling and new map-drawing only to Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, ignoring the Section 5 preclearance lawsuit in the District of Columbia Appeals Court.

The high court was following fairly clear precedent. Between that and the fact that there's no strong, old-e liberals on the court makes it little surprise the ruling was unanimous, even though the San Antonio court had the right ideas in mind.

But it's not a 100 percent loaf for the GOP. The San Antonio court can still do some tweaking, per the ruling, within Section 2, and the preclearance suit could still effect 2014 elections, or, plaintiffs in the district court suit could seek an expedited ruling from the D.C. Appeals Court, maybe.

Of course, a 2012 map in place itself sets precedent.

Basically, the state GOP decided to push the envelope as far as it could and challenge courts to try to do something about it.

Back to ground zero on Texas redistricting

SCOTUS says the federal district court should have taken GOP mapping into account. (Corrected blog below; it's SCOTUS, not the original court, doing the hearing.)

A new hearing is set for Jan. 9, by the nine in black.

So, should we expect a delayed primary? And, wouldn't that affect the presidential primary, too?


I would think the Supreme Court would be able to give a more-than-cursory glance, address the discrimination claims-related issues, hopefully stand with lower courts on findings of discrimination, make some halfway concessions in a few districts, wrap up its ruling in appropriate language, and get that all done in a week. Nonetheless, between that, and appeals, we are probably looking at a push-back to later than March 6.

And, since the Supremes decided to hear all the redistricting cases themselves, rather than remanding them, the hoped-for resolution in the above paragraph is not anywhere near being guaranteed. 


Much more here from Scotusblog, which notes there's little precedent to wonder how this will play out. Will SCOTUS draw new maps itself? Tell the three-judge district panel to do that? Entertain a special session of the Lege, even? Who knows.


And, assuming Texas doesn't want the expense of two primary dates, it could have presidential repercussions, depending on who all is left and how close the race is. Would the state do a split primary system instead?

DFW gets a "Hispanic" Congressional seat

Per another blogger, here's the seat that I've said could be Elba Garcia's for the winning and losing.

That said, I don't know why neither this blogger nor Burnt Orange Report nor others are failing to mention her as a possible candidate.

Green Party news

As promised, good political news, moving beyond bashing President Obama and other neolib Democrats.

The Green Party just got done with its 2011 annual meeting and convention.

Among candidates this year is Cheri Honkala, running for sheriff in Philadelphia on a no-evictions platoform, and Mark Miller, running for a Massachusetts state house open seat taht he almost won in 2010.

Elziabeth May, the first Canadian Green to win a seat in parliament, was also at the convention.

Looking ahead to 2012 races? A reminder: Greens have statewide party-line ballot access in the four largest states of California, Texas, New York and Florida. Don't listen to Democratic fear mongering!

More 'tohu wevohu' for the economy - and for Obama?

For you non-biblical scholars, the words in italics are Hebrew from Genesis 1, about how the Earth was "formless and void" before Yahweh intervened.

Well, an AP survey of economists, while not having a majority predicting an actual second recessionary dip, does predict ongoing tohu wevohu into next year. That said, recession odds have been upped to 26 percent.

Now, what does this mean for 2012 elections?

On the presidential side, as I've said before, it all depends on who wins the GOP nod. Obama likely loses to Romney or Huntsman. Unless the economy tanks, though, he beats any other current GOP candidate - if he runs his campaign right. (Besides the grudge match of Rick Perry, it would be fun to see, for history and laughs alike, Herman Cain against Obama.)

Now, there is the caveat of running his campaign right. A Perry should be absolute poison to independents. And, Obama did sandbag McCain on the TARP vote issue in 2008. (Among many sandbagging acts.)

Of course, I'll still be voting Green, so, other than the chess match, I'm more concerned about Obama's pending jobs program, as to what it does for the country.

What's needed?
1. Direct federal jobs creation, or payments to states for direct state job creation, for infrastructure repair.
2. Targeted tax credits for creation of full-time non-contract jobs.
3. A moratorium on free-trade agreements unless they're proven to boost jobs, i.e., kill the "backdoor to China" non-free trade deal with South Korea.
4. Money for long-term job-retraining and career-vocational programs outside traditional collegiate education.

#RickPerry'sTexasMiracle part 3: new schools, no teachers

Yep, you read that right. In Leander, an exurb of Austin, two brand new schools sit vacant because the district doesn't have the money for teachers for them.

And why is that?

Because of Texas' draconian budget cuts, abetted and augmented by Gov. Tricky Ricky Perry's failed business franchise tax that his fellow GOP yahoos in the Legislature again refused (not just failed but refused) to fix this year. It all seems deliberate, not just in the name of austerity, but to starve one of the few institutions that may still harbor enemies of Perry and other GOP wingnuts.

In Leander, about 27 miles north of Austin, one of the most visible signs of the cuts will be two new schools — a middle school and an elementary — sitting vacant.

“We've got these big beautiful buildings ready to open but we can't afford the teachers to put in them,” said district spokeswoman Veronica V. Sopher, who adds that the buildings were built with bonds approved by voters.

That's the stupidest, but there's plenty more.

Lamar High School Principal James McSwain said his school has eliminated about 29 positions — from clerical to teaching staff. Class sizes for core subjects such as math and English will increase by about 10 students, to about 38 per class. In computer and art, class sizes will surpass 40 students.

Yeah, try teaching a computer class with 40 students in it.

Here's another goodie:

In Keller, about 20 miles north of Fort Worth, students paying to ride the bus will save the district $2 million a year. A district official says they had warned residents of a “pay-to-ride” system if voters in June didn't approve an increase in property taxes to help make up for some of the state cuts to the 32,000-student district.

“We've had over 3,000 phone calls. Many were upset and justifiably so,” said Mark Youngs, Keller's deputy superintendent of finance. “Folks don't pay attention until it touches their front door.”

The story notes that many parents without kids may have led opposition. The fraying of social bonds ... another accidental, or perhaps Social Darwinist-deliberate, effect of the budget cuts.

And, yes, I don't have a problem calling it Social Darwinism. The conservative Christian success gospel, which, sadly, is entrapping too many minorities, too, is Social Darwinism in a garish Christian drag costume.

Anyway, how bad is it? The cuts are even, indirectly, affecting FOOTBALL in places:

Carrollton-Farmers Branch District spokeswoman Angela Shelley says that the cut for this upcoming school year that most people are talking about is one that saves $50,000 in transportation costs: The district's bands will no longer travel to away football games.

But wait. It gets worse next year.

This school year, districts will see a cut of about 6 percent across-the-board. Next school year, there will be a $2 billion reduction that cuts funding for some schools more than others.

Next year may be even harsher for many schools because the cuts were softened a bit by a one-time payout of $830 million in public education funds this spring. School finance expert Lynn Moak of Moak, Casey & Associates said those federal funds helped offset this year's cuts by about a third.

And, let's not forget those cuts are happening to the fastest-growing set of public schools in the nation.

Factor in student population growth, as in the Leander vacant school buildings, and per-pupil cuts are more like 10 percent.

Everybody knows yet another school districts' lawsuit against the state is needed. The problem is (and perhaps that was a deliberate intent of those GOP yahoos), not many districts have the money for that now.

Let's not wait, Texas ISDs. Let's start suing, and start puncturing Rick Perry's national stage balloon more.

2012 election: Total reversal for Prez, Senate AND House ... i.e., no change?

If there's anything the last three presidential elections, plus the last three Congressional elections, should have shown America, it's this:

We are in as volatile a political period as that between presidents Grant and McKinley from 1876 to 1896. So, try this thought out. A 2012 election that sees a non-tea party GOP presidential candidate win, while the GOP also takes back the Senate, but Dems win back the House.

Ridiculous? Not at all.

A large part of this all depends on the tea party's degree of being a factor in elections, given that it's now rated as more unfavorable than Muslims or atheists.

With Obama's poll numbers now starting to edge into the upper 30s, unless he has a jobs program that truly creates jobs and fast, and doesn't just try to wrong-foot the Republicans, he's in big trouble next year. If the GOP nominates a non-nutbar candidate (with Dull-Lenty of Minn. out, that leaves Romney and Huntsman right now), Obama loses the election.

The Senate? Democrats have long known that this year stacks up badly against them. Anybody who gives them a 40 percent chance, even, of holding on, is whistling past the graveyard.

The House? Due to bungling and overplaying of hands by Midwestern GOP governors Snyder in Michigan, Walker in Wisconsin and Kasich in Ohio, and how that may play out in House races, the Democrats have a chance to pick up several Midwestern seats. Add in a few others here and there, and I will put Democrats' chances of regaining the House at at least 50 percent. Here, more than in the Senate, beyond running against those three GOP governors, they also will in many cases have specific tea party candidates to run against.

It won't be easy, but I'd say two seats in Michigan, three or even four in Ohio, and at least one in Wisconsin are there. Pennsylvania, outside the three-state area, could be easy picking for a couple of seats at least. Democrats should have more than six seats they now have in Florida; local-based campaigns could do well there.

Besides, the latest Gallup poll shows Dems have a 7-point lead in a generic ballot for Congress.

Given that Democrats need less than 20 seats to regain control of the House, this isn't out of the realm of possible.

Now, what would this mean?

Probably not a lot different than now.

I'll assume the Democrats have at least 41 senators, and that a couple of conservative Democrats who would be "defectors" too often have lost their seats. I'll also make the less warranted assumption that Senate Democrats are finally willing to practice at least a degree of GOP-style filibustering. Combine that with a Democratic House majority and a Romney-type GOP president, and we really will have little change from today in a number of ways. Don't ask, don't tell will stay disappeared. Romney probably will have about the same degree of activity, or inactivity, on DOMA. Big corporations might find Romney moderately more friendly than Obama, but much of their anti-Obama bluster right now is for show, not reality, and they know it. Besides, many of the issues there are to some degree SCOTUS-informed legal issues.

Foreign policy? Again, not much difference. Romney won't re-escalate Afghanistan, will use any excuse possible, just like Obama, to keep some troops in Iraq, and probably will be "venturesome" in Arabia and the Horn of Africa. Again, no difference.

Loser in Cantor's debt hissy fit: We the people

What's likely to happen in national debt discussions now that House Majority Leader Eric Cantor has walked out?

1. Biden and Obama possibly "chasing" Cantor to some degree, watering down any "compromise."

1. A Wall Street tilt back to Democrats in general and Obama in particular, guaranteeing the re-election of this semi-conservative (or whatever, he's not liberal) Democratic president.

And, that's why we the people lose, if Cantor decides to remain outside the tent.

Obama on A-stan ... timid withdrawal, except to warmongers

President Barack Obama announced nothing new in his Afghanistan speech.

So, Dana Milbank, stopped watch time, I guess, is probably right in calling this Obama's "mission accomplished speech." Enough troops will be withdrawn over the next year to reduce U.S. casualties. We'll continue to lie about Afghan National Army development, Karzai corruption levels, etc.

Contra Richard Cohen, whose stopped clock was last right a month ago, this does NOT mark "America's decline." Not unless you believe we should be empire-building.

Which John McCain is, to the point that George Will has soured on him.

Bottom line is, this speech satisfies nobody ...

Except Obama's 2012 re-election campaign staff.

Huckabee says ...

Ted Nugent is running for president of the United States.

Nugent said he trained the Navy SEALs who took out Osama bin Laden to use deer-hunting crossbows to kill the al-Qaeda leader and that's why President Obama is hiding the Osama photos.

Donald Trump then immediately popped on Huck's show and said HE had killed bin Laden ... with his Trump-over hair.

Our billion-dollar "liberal" president

Yes, you read that header right.

Between primary and general election campaigns, Barack Obama may raise $1 billion in campaign funds.

Disgusting.

So, the man has no effing business criticizing Citizens' United.

He made his campaign finance bed, let him sleep in it.

Will 2012 be a 'normal' election year?

The last three general elections have all been "wave" elections," with strong changes in Congressional representation. It's unusual to have that type of change election after election.

So, will 2012 be a "normal" election? Prominent analyst Charlie Cook thinks so. My first oddsmaking is 50-50 Obama vs. generic GOP opponent, 50-50 on Dems keeping control of the Senate, including by tie, and 3-1 on GOP keeping the House. At the same time, I'll put 50-50 on 15-20 Democratic seat pick-ups there.