RIP Bobby Cox, still getting a roiding pass

The long-time Atlanta Braves (and shorter-time Toronto Blue Jays) manager, voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame a number of years ago, has died at the age of 84.

And, he continues to get a pass on his managing of alleged, certain in my opinion in one case for sure, steroid-using (or other PED-using) players. The two managers voted in with him, Tony La Russa and Joe Torre, have faced much more scrutiny (while pumping out much more denialism). Cox hasn't.

Indeed, ESPN's own story, at the top link, doesn't even mention this, though at that very place, Rick Reilly mentioned all three, and the hypocrisy, when they were voted into Cooperstown.

Why? Maybe it's because, other than the borderline case of Gary Sheffield, Cox didn't manage any clear HOFers, or players with dramatic performances? (As a St. Louis Cardinals fan, I don't think Mark McGwire is a HOFer even with his PED-influenced numbers, but he did have dramatic performances.) But, outside of Barry Bonds, Torre managed both Roger Clemens and A-Rod. Even deducting for the enhancements, all three continue to be shut out by veterans committees in the first two cases, after the BBWAA took a 10-year pass. A-Rod is likely to face the same fate.

Yet the trio of denialist managers plus former commissioner Bud Selig are all in Cooperstown.

It's a big steaming pile of shit.

I think Cox knew, as much as La Russa and Torre, even if Atlanta wasn't as much of a "locus" as Oakland's dugout or that of the Yankees. (The Texas Rangers became another node when Jose Canseco went there but they've not had a HOF manager until Bruce Bochy, who will go in with a Giants hat. And, the Mac/La Russa Cardinals being a possible node has also flown under the radar screen because, of course, that's not the Cardinal Way.)

Riffing off Reilly, by the early 2000s, all three were managerial elder statesmen. Certainly they were after their 2013 elections. Yet all engaged in denialism both before and after. Denialism extends to fans in the case of Cox, per a post on Reddit's r/mlb, where my comments to this end have been massively downvoted.

And, no, "not too soon," either, no more than with a takedown or semi-takedown obit of a politician. 

Ted Williams and Yaz are Red Sox nonpersons

Who would say such an Orwellian thing?

Well, the president and CEO of the Boston Red Sox, Sam Kennedy, that's who:

"David Ortiz is the most important player to ever wear a Red Sox uniform."

There you go.

First, as I blogged late last year, when the BBWAA ballots officially came out, David Ortiz is NOT a Hall of Famer. Certainly not a first-ballot one. And, it goes beyond whether the roided or not. Park-inflated stats at Fenway is why we have things like OPS+ and WAR. His 141 career OPS+ is good but not great for a 1B/DH type. (Albert Pujols is still at 144 after a much longer career and decline and Miguel Cabrera is at 145.)

But, let's go to the "nonpersons" and that statement.

Note who's missing? Well, obviously, Teddy Ballgame, Ted Williams, the Kid, the Splinter. Two-time Triple Crown winner. Arguably the best batter who ever played the game of baseball.

Boston legend in so many ways.

Best player to ever wear that uniform. And, yes, that at least arguably includes two very prominent other players, one entirely from the deadball era and the other with baseball's best career WAR. Certainly the best with the Sox alone.

And Carl Yastrzemski, last guy to post a 12-WAR season. (Ortiz never had a single 7-WAR season, another reason I don't consider him a Hall of Famer.)

Who else is being forgotten?

Well, it's not the uni he's most famous for, but?

Babe Ruth.

Others who didn't play only with Boston, but neither did Ortiz?

Pedro Martinez.

Roger Clemens.

Wade Boggs.

Those, at a minimum, rank higher.

Cy Young.

Tris Speaker.

All of them, in my book, are both better and more important. Well, the importance factor is arguable with Boggs and Speaker, but otherwise? Babe? Important to the history of baseball, the history of the Sawks, and focus of "the curse of the Bambino." Pedro injected new fuel into the Sox-Yankees rivalry. Clemens? Important for injecting other things. Cy Young? Just has an award named after him. 

Could probably even slip the likes of a Dwight Evans in there on the better side, whether or not more important. Maybe even Fred Lynn? That's a maybe because he's behind Papi on WAR, but on importance? He was Rookie of the Year and MVP the same season, and that was WS year 1975.

The noxious Curt Schilling, bloody sock and all. Surely more important. And better.

Cooperstown: Once more unto the Big Hall breach and related

I hadn't planned for half this blog to become sports-related postings, but, between racism about NFL quarterbacks, COVID stupidity and interesting legitimate NBA news, and nuttery by baseball fans AND WRITERS, it has.

And, with that, unto that breach.

The "trigger" for baseball fans and writers who want their Granny, Uncle Leroy and three next door neighbors all voted into their "Big Hall" version of the MLB Hall of Fame in Cooperstown is people like me who call them out on sabermetrics. My post about a bloated new class of veterans inductees, none of whom cleared 55 percent or so with writers, and most of whom who had also failed at least one, if not more than one, previous Veterans Committee election.

And, it's not just Big Hall fans in general. As I blogged a couple of weeks ago, the claim that Adam Wainwright would be a HOFer if not for injury is laughable. It's easy to troll fellow Cardinals fans who like to talk about "Best Fans in Baseball" with nuttery like that. And, when they bring it up? I point out that I'm such a Cards fan from way back that I was at the game where Glenn Brummer stole home. (And, if that doesn't ring a bell, you're not much of a Cards fan.)

To go on a tangent, it's like calling Bernie Miklasz out for puffing a non-existent "Cardinal Way."

At the same time, as a Cards fan, I nave noted my non-homerism in the past by saying that Mark McGwire is NOT A Hall of Famer. Because he's not; de-roided, I said, he's another Dave Kingman.

On recent triggers? I probably further cheesed-off the Uncle Leroy crowd by taking a deeper dive into Tony Oliva's case, or lack thereof.  And I deeper dived on Gil Hodges, too.

That said, it's not just the Hall of Fame. I've written a whole series of posts calling out writers first, fans second, who have bloviated over Shohei Ohtani. Yes, he had a very good season. No, it wasn't THAT good, and that's by 21st-century standards alone.

Frankly, per a meme that Craig Calcaterra used to post regularly, and still does while now working for NBC's Green Satan (I think he still does), I wonder if a lot of both fans and writers really do believe that "Baseball is Dying."

It probably is, and another lockout won't help. Adding the DH to the National League will only further drive away fans like me, not just as traditionalists, but as people who don't want NL games to get as long as AL ones. 

Commissioner Corleone was supposed to do something about that. In part being blocked by the players union, in part just not making it a bigger, more consistent priority, he's let the game drag on.

But, it's the fans as well. Many want the year-round DH, even with four-hour games. And they want Uncle Leroy in the Hall of Fame.

If baseball is dying, you're part of the cause. YOU killed Cock Robin.

Writers? Those of you who were in denial about roids at the time killed it too.

Back to fans, on this issue. If you claim a majority of players roided 20 years ago and so, Uncle Lenny the Roider should "go in," rather than us tossing out three managers? You killed Cock Robin, too.

Actually, capitalism is killing baseball. Capitalism is why, though not on its official job description, the Veterans Committee is unofficially encouraged by the HOF to vote in more players. Cooperstown, New York, as I noted on my original trigger piece, is a lot smaller than Springfield, Massachusetts or Canton, Ohio. Basically, it's a Hall of Fame factory town. (I had a late friend who was born and raised there, a leftist of some sort like me, as my oral history source.) Springfield, 150K. Canton, 70K. Cooperstown, 2,000 in an upstate New York cow pasture. And, built on a legend specifically designed to draw people to this cow pasture, in population decline for a full century. (That said, Canton's had a slower decline for 50 years.) Plus, the HOF totally controls the Veterans Committees. Per that link, sadly, Mike Schmidt is totally a Big Hall guy.

This guy GETS IT:

At the end of the day, it is a plaque in the gallery…and lots of merchandise sold for MLB teams, and the Hall of Fame. It also allows the newly elected Hall of Famer to charge extra for appearances and autographs.

Nothing to add.

The Basketball HOF, per Wiki, arguably both is more exclusive and has a better process for dealing with possibly overlooked veterans. Per Springfield staff, it's more exclusive when you realize it includes WNBA, or will, men's and women's college players coaches, and international ones.

Canton is similarly better in some ways. The Pro Football Hall of Fame, like Naismith, specify more how veterans should be considered and put a cap on their induction numbers.

Now, it's true that, with both these sports, the Halls of Fame control the normal player induction process in a way that Cooperstown doesn't; maybe that, in turn, leads to a sense of frustration that leads it to want various veterans committees to goose the vote.

Let the Jon Lester fellation begin, says Jesse Rogers

Over at Red Satan, Jesse Rogers is talking about the just-retired Jon Lester's Hall of Fame potential.

No, really, despite Lester having under 45 career WAR.

Or, to look at individual seasons, Lester not having a single 7-WAR season, and only barely hitting the 6-WAR mark twice. Or being under the line on all four Hall of Fame guidelines at the bottom of his page.

But, it gets worse. 

Rogers says he's possibly the best playoff pitcher ever.*

This, of course, first ignores that pre-1969, we HAD no playoffs.

Second, while B-Ref doesn't do sabermetrics for postseason pitching (short sample size?) it may be true that he's better there by WHIP and K/BB and K/BB (tho lower in K/9 than the regular season), there's reasons for that. Shorter pitch counts in postseasons. Lefties targeting lefty-heavy lineups. Fangraphs does have some postseason sabermetrics, and with their weird ERA-minus instead of ERA+, Lester appears better on it and ditto on its also flipped FIP-minus. (Although I appreciate the info, the psychological weirdness of going minus rather than plus is another reason to not like Fangraphs.)

But, let's stay in the last 30 years, when we expanded playoffs to a second round, then, of course the wild card play-in.

You taking Jon Lester over Curt Schilling? Absolutely not. Or Pedro Martinez? Or Greg Maddux? Randy Johnson? Or Bob Gibson or Sandy Koufax of pre-playoffs days?

I ain't.

* Nor taking him over Mariano Rivera in the relief side of baseball in today's postseason. (Rogers technically said starting pitcher, whether on the assumption that starters automatically have more value than relievers, or else because he knew there was no way to bullshit Lester over Rivera. No matter.)

I don't know whether this is Chicago Cubs Flubs homerism from Jesse, or just an extension of ESPN "Big Hall" bullshit or a bit of both or what, but?

It's Not.Even.Wrong.

Cooperstown In-Credible on WAR and more

I think that's the best name for the Cooperstown Cred baseball blog.

I'd looked at an occasional post of his before, but gave it my first hard look last month.

That was when I said Danny Murtaugh is WAY OVERDUE to be in as a manager. Two World Series. Had he lived, would have been the 1979 pilot as well. Re Murtaugh? An "interesting" piece here by Cooperstown Cred, who notes Murtaugh's health history and repeated retirements because of it, but does NOT take it into account in touting him. He links to Bill James, who likewise mentioned it but does NOT take it into account. (Bill James was great for giving us sabermetrics, as well as this managerial equivalent of sorts, but he's lousy on following where his own sabermetrics point in many cases. "We" took health into account with Roy Campanella, Sandy Koufax, and Dizzy Dean though not, sadly, Thurman Munson with his premature death. Why not Murtaugh?)

Cooperstown Cred guy doesn't fully understand WAR, IMO, with this observeration on his most recent Albert Pujols piece:

If you believe the calculation, the Angels could have plucked a player from their AAA affiliate in Salt Lake City and the team would have won two more games than they did in reality. I don’t personally believe that.

No, it wouldn't be an ANGELS replacement player, it would be an MLB average replacement player. WAR is compared MLB-wide. As for the realities of what Pujols' stats said? Your "cred" is undercut of you can't accept that. A .672 OPS and severely limited defensive range? If you're talking about "leadership" or "chemistry" or whatever, WAR doesn't account for that for ANY player.

But, it's not just there. He has issues with WAR on his Ichiro Suzuki piece. He also has a poor dichotomy when he said he ran a Twitter poll and the options in Ichiro were "great/unique" HOFer, "borderline" HOFer, or not at all. I commented, why not "solid" HOFer in the middle of the first and second options? (Ichiro would have had 80-85 WAR had he played his whole career in MLB. Among right fielders? That would put him ahead of the likes of Reggie Jackson, but behind Al Kaline and Roberto Clemente, let alone the actually "unique" at right field. It would also put him ahead of Pete Rose.

Dude also thinks Minnie Minoso belongs in the Hall with less than 55 WAR, and right at 50 WAR if we don't count Negro League stats. Which I am dubious about in general, and in his case, given his young age would have had him in MLB minors, even more so. Here's my deeper dive.

I think he also pushes Tony Oliva and Gil Hodges. I now have more detailed looks at the cases against  Oliva and Hodges.

Minoso shows how Chris Bodig, near my age, is clearly a "Big Hall" guy. (He's enough younger than me he should have a better grasp on the realities of WAR.)

Other than triples, he doesn't meet my eye test. (Well, he's got the negative eye tests of "out stealing" league leadership several times, along with poor SB percentage.) He did have one 8-WAR year and was robbed of an MVP. Other than that, though?

He's Hall of Pretty Good, and arguably Hall of Very Good. Not Hall of Fame. His relative lack of power wasn't serving teams well with primarily being played at LF, then 3B. In theory, you put a lower-power person like that in right, but he's below-average in range factor for the few games he did play there. And, that rules out CF.

Where Minoso REALLY belongs is the "Hall of Self-Aggrandizement" for the stunts (they were) of playing one game in 1976 and even worse, the one game in 1980. Of course, Bill Veeck was associated with both. Dunno who owned the ChiSox in 1980. (Oh, it was also a stunt, as I see it, by Nick Altrock, the other five-decade guy.)

Oh, per Chris? Rob Neyer's halfway enlightened about Minoso. "Borderline. At best."

Rob Neyer used to work at Red Satan, of course. And, its past and present baseball writers, with the possible exception of Jeff Passan, whom I haven't seen write about Cooperstown, are to a man, humongous bloated Big Hall guys. Right on cue, and behind the ESPN paywall (a sure sign that it's especially click-baity) Brad Doolittle fellates the case of Minoso.

Sadfly, the "Golden Era" Veterans Committee agrees with Big Hall fellators like Doolittle and odig on Mineso and several other undeserving candidates. I've thoroughly excoriated them.

No, WAR is not perfect, but, in an actually good piece at Red Satan, I quote:

The goal of WAR is to give the most complete sense of a player's value to his team, and it's perhaps the best piece of data to compare the greatness of one player to the next.

There you go. Couldn't have said it better myself. Now, get off my lawn.

Gil Hodges: A 2nd microcosm of Cooperstown veterans committee screw-ups

I simply do not get the fandom for Gil Hodges. It's like a fricking cult, mainly of Brooklynites, but also of others. (See, I didn't even say "fucking," per the tone trolls commenting on my original piece about Veterans Committee screw-ups.)

And, TOTALLY unwarranted as I see it.

His case? Far worse than that of Minnie Miñoso, discussed in more detail here. Pretty worse than that of Tony Oliva, now discussed in detail here.

On my original piece about the VC's screw-ups, I said he wasn't even a AAA HOFer. In the longer body, I pulled my halfway-in-cheek tongue out, and per WAR, amended that to say he wasn't a AAAA replacement HOFer. I stand by that.

OK, the numbers.

43.9 WAR is the biggie.

And right now, I hear the "but WWII" chorus.

He was 19 in 1943 and got a cup of coffee call-up because of the war. No WWII, he's still in the minors in 1944 and 1945. So, you're already wrong. Or, Not.Even.Wrong. 

Now, to details.

First, on the sabermetric side? NO, NONE, ZERO 7-WAR seasons. Only one 6-WAR year. 

No, sabermetrics in general, and WAR in specific, aren't perfect, but it seems like the biggest bashers of them are people who know they can't make a good sabermetrics-based claim for a player's skill level.

Second, let's go non-sabermetrics; per the HOF numbers at bottom left of a player's profile? His only black ink is strikeouts once, sac flies twice. Total black ink points? TWO! Average HOFer? 27.

The rest of those categories? "Gray ink," "Hall of Fame Monitor," and "Hall of Fame standards," on ALL of them, he's somewhat to well below the benchmarks. 

I've never seen a THAT BAD on a player who has yammerers (you are) saying "let him in." Shit, even Jack Morris was above benchmarks on "Gray ink" and "Hall of Fame Monitor." When you're worse than Jack Morris, you're bad.

Third, back to sabermetrics. Never busted 150 on OPS+, which is "not good" for a first baseman. It, like WAR, is park-adjusted. Ebbets Field was not a total bandbox down the lines for a right-handed batter, unlike a lefty, but it was almost as bad a bandbox in left-center as in right-center, and, of course, a sub-400 foot center field covers both batters. And, that's why WAR and OPS+ are park adjusted. 

Yet, even though both black and gray ink are NOT park-adjusted, Hodges was out of the running on both. 

Career OPS+ of 120. Horrible for a first baseman who's an alleged Hall of Famer. Even Keith Hernandez, a lowish-power glove-first first baseman, is at 128.

Now, to Jay Jaffe's JAWS7, a good tool for putting a player heads-up with others at their position on a mix of longevity and peak. Hodges is 40th. He's worse than Frank Chance, someone else who doesn't belong in Cooperstown. (Unfortunately, Jaffe, like Bill James, is a Big Hall guy, and probably an emotion-driven one, too, who doesn't actually look at what sabermetrics says in many cases like this.)

If we click the top of the row for OPS+ on the JAWS7 for 1B, it's worse yet. The only name modern readers would recognize at 120 is Justin Morneau. Mark Grace is at 119. So is Andres Galarraga. (Grace is also ahead of him on WAR.) Part of the argument about Tony Perez not being Hall-worthy? He's only at 122. And, while I'm here, a sidebar to Dodgers bluebloods perhaps thinking this enhances Mr. Playboy's HOF chances? Steve Garvey at 117 OPS+. AND under 40 WAR.

Yep, that's Gil Hodges' company.

As for his managerial skills? IMO, he caught lightning in a bottle once. Having ditched the second, expansion Senators for the Mets, they continued to play as well after he left as before. As for claims that a short managerial career truncated his surely inevitable greatness? Danny Murtaugh won two World Series and two additional NL East titles after 1969 expansion, probably would have been the 1979 WS manager had he lived, but had his career interrupted multiple times by illness before his untimely death, yet can't get the time of day from various Vets Committees ...

Or from alleged sabermetric genyuses like Jay Jaffe, who both hates on Murtaugh as a manger and slobbers over (yes) Hodges as a player. If Jim Kaat's picture is in the MLB Encyclopedia next to "compiler," then Jaffe's is next to "hypocrite." It's next to Bill James, another Hodges slobberer.

Now, some Hodges fellators are probably doing a "player plus manager" bank shot, a la Red Schoendienst. Ixnay on that. Red was approximately the same on player WAR, but, went to two WS, back to back. In addition, he was on the coaching staff for the 1982/85/87 WS appearances and continued to serve as a team executive after that Besides, he lost not only a possible 1944 call-up as a player due to WW2, he also suffered eye damage from the war, per Wiki. Better yet, read Red's obit.

Tony Oliva: A microcosm of Cooperstown veterans committee screw-ups

A week ago, I blogged about how the Early Baseball Committee, and even more, the Golden Days Committee, was wrong, or worse, at times Not.Even.Wrong, on the veteran players it voted into the Hall of Fame.

I'm now going to look at one case in microcosm: Tony Oliva. 

First, he had under 50 WAR. Almost EXACTLY another Harold Baines.

I venture many voters said "but he had three batting titles."

I don't care if he won three batting titles. Bill Madlock won four and he's not in the HOF either, and he shouldn't be in the HOF either. (Madlock might be an even better comp than Baines.)

But, that started me to wondering.

And, here we go. Other players with three batting titles who probably aren't Hall-worthy.

Dead-ball days? Ross Barnes, Pete Browning. Barnes had a way-short career; dunno why. Most of it was short seasons with the pre-NL National Association. So, he's so far in the past that, even had he played longer, it might be hard to discuss him at all. Browning played longer, with somewhat longer seasons, but still is enough in the past to be hard to say much about. 

Modern era? Joe Mauer. And, no, his 55 WAR, with half his career at 1B/DH, not Hall-worthy. True, the injuries not his fault. But, ditto for Buster Posey. Or, in the past, Ray Fosse.

Close? Willie McGee; two titles and a fourth place. Not a HOFer. Dave Parker, two titles and a fifth with five total top-10s. Not a HOFer. (Self-inflicted.)

True that it's not Oliva's fault he was stuck behind Bob Allison his first two years. (Allison had a 7-WAR season himself in 1963. He's actually not THAT distant of a comp to Oliva, for that matter. )

A 1972 season where his bad knees caught up to him spelled the end to his career. (And, the Twins maybe should have flopped their outfielding halves if playing Oliva in left instead of right would have helped his knees at all, with Allison then staying in right.)  He led the league in slugging the year before that, and took his third batting title, but missed a quarter of the year. But, even before that, just one 7-WAR year, along with two 6-WAR ones.

Some pitchers allegedly claim to have feared to pitch to Oliva. They apparently didn't tell writers that; the BBWAA never gave him more than 50 percent. Everybody on that original blog post is the same. Neither writers nor previous Veterans Committee incarnations could see themselves to saying they were "all that."

Final thought and another comp: Larry Walker, also of course, a right fielder, and who got in the Hall on his last year of BBWAA eligibility. Different injuries than Oliva, but a variety of nagging injuries that shortened his career. Also three batting titles! Two slugging titles, not one, and two OBP titles.

MUCH better defensive outfielder. MUCH better baserunner.

Three hundred extra games? That would give you 12 WAR; still leaves a 55-WAR Oliva far short of a 73-WAR Walker. (On that games played? Oliva is closer to Posey than Walker, and outside the top 500. He also played one-third fewer games than Parker, who had notoriously bad wheels, and Oliva was playing on natural grass. Just some sidebars on the injuries issue.) I could even throw in part of sitting behind Bob Allison for another 5 WAR. He's still at just 60 WAR.

Cooperstown veterans committees are fuck-ups again

Buck O'Neil? Hellz, yes. But none of the others they voted in deserve there.

Oh fuck, for fuck's sake.

(And, and to deliberately redouble on something? Contra one commenter, it is NOT the fucking official job description of various incarnations of the veterans committees to "elect" more people. It IS their job to "reconsider" people not elected by the BBWAA.

Now, the capitalists running the HOF will deny that's the unofficial job description; they're deny that's why they tweaked the three committees into four. But, they're lying out their smokestacks.

The whole reason the HOF exists is built on a legend, and the HOF and Cooperstown's wallets are heavily invested in that. I have a late friend who was born and raised there; I know whereof I speak on this sidebar. IMO, overall, hoops and football have better processes.) 

This guy GETS IT:

At the end of the day, it is a plaque in the gallery…and lots of merchandise sold for MLB teams, and the Hall of Fame. It also allows the newly elected Hall of Famer to charge extra for appearances and autographs.

Nothing to add.

Minnie Miñoso ain't a HOFer, and Gil Hodges ain't even a AAA HOFer. Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva don't belong in either.  

(Update, Dec. 22: I now have more detailed looks at the cases against, especially, Oliva and Hodges, and also against Miñoso.)

Same shitheads who voted in Jack Morris and Harold Baines proved they're even more stupid than the Bill Terry and Frankie Frisch veterans committee, notorious for putting in undeserving people like Jim Bottomley. (For that matter, there's a damn good argument writers fucked up voting in Terry, with less than 60 WAR, basically just because .400.)

Seriously, as batters, did committee members Ozzie Smith or George Brett ever think they were watching a HOFer in Kaat? (Sorry, Brett wasn't on this year's committee; Wikipedia's page was kind of confusing. Anyway, he's tagged, and was on previous veterans committees. Besides, that was a sidebar observation that is still valid of Ozzie, who played both with and against Kaat, and doesn't change the larger argument of "you saw X play, did you really think he was a HOFer"?)

Bud Fowler? With basically no stats to consider, he's anecdote and legend. Wouldn't have voted him in. Is he being voted in for being "considered" the first black professional baseball player? That's about as sketchy as his lack of stats. And, yes, I'm being curmudgeonly. Besides, I've always heard Moses Fleetwood Walker was the answer to this question. Fowler only counts if we're talking about minor leagues. Comes off as tokenism, especially if Walker is NOT in. (I had very honestly never heard of Fowler before a week ago.)

Let's tackle these individually, setting aside O'Neil, who we all know should have been in, and Fowler, who I just dealt with.

Miñoso? (Per the third commenter's note, B-Ref's linker runs his name WITHOUT the tilde. But, I have changed that. It still doesn't change my argument or its strength.) 50 WAR. (For various reasons, rightly or wrongly, I don't generally count Negro Leagues numbers on a player considered primarily for his MLB time. A Red Satan piece on Oscar Charleson spells it out for me. B-Ref has scanty enough info on Negro League parks that it cannot park-neutralize OPS+, per the story — and on the flip side, presumably can't park-neutralize ERA+, or calculate FIP, let alone to do a FIP+ like Fangraphs. Because of not having the same minor league structure and individual teams not having minor league systems, B-Ref also can't calculate WAR for Negro Leagues players. For him particularly, he didn't play full time in the Negro Leagues before being signed by the Indians in 1949 at age 23 and put an asterisk on that.)

He was a below-average fielder (he was). He got thrown out on the bases a lot. One 8-WAR, one 6-WAR year. He's not a horrible inductee, but not great.

Back to that asterisk? For anybody talking "but include the Negro Leagues"? Fine. Per B-Ref, he's still under 55 WAR. Given that those were young years, he probably wouldn't have been in MLB's majors most that time were this 20-30 years later and discrimination in playing weren't such a problem, so I still don't see him as much more than 55 WAR. Remember, that when he DID get his initial shot, with the 1949 Indians, he was sent ... to the minors, not back to Negro League ball ... because he wasn't good enough. (The Undefeated, in its fellation of Miñoso, admits that Cleveland was [ahead of the Dodgers!] baseball's most integrated team in 1949. It then raises the "Gold Gloves" argument; well, in two of his three winning seasons, he had a negative dWAR. They didn't exist back then, but that's why cognoscenti look at Fielding Bible awards today.)

Gil Hodges? No 7-WAR seasons. Only one 6-WAR year. Under 45 WAR. Never a top-5 MVP. Not that much as a manager. And, per my response to the first commenter? Alleged sabermetric genyuses like Jay Jaffe are selective on sabermetrics. What good is it appealing to metrics if you're going to ignore or fudge them, Jay? (That's why it's funny as hell to use the cover of his book as illustration for this post.) And, per my crack above? Under 45 WAR and no 7-WAR seasons, yeah, maybe you are a AAA HOFer, but you're NOT a AAAA-replacement level HOFer let alone the real deal.

Would he have been a great manager had he lived? Sabermetrics say no; the 1970 Mets finished 5 games under Pythag; the 1971 Mets were 3 games under. The Senators were over Pythag in 1964-67, but stayed over when jumped to the Mets in 1968.

Kaat? Flat 50 WAR. Look up "compiler" in the MLB Encyclopedia. His picture is there. He even admits it. Falls below 1.10 ERA+, one of my benchmarks besides WAR for a pitcher.Also fails the second, with a WHIP above 1.25. (Black Jack Morris also failed these.) To be a bit charitable, he did have two 7-WAR seasons.

Oliva. Under 50 WAR. Almost EXACTLY another Harold Baines. I don't care if he won three batting titles. Bill Madlock won four and he's not in the HOF either, and he shouldn't be in the HOF either. (Madlock might be an even better comp than Baines.)

I write this as MLBTR's piece on the election has idiots galore in the comments. Beyond the idiots touting candidacies of the undeserving, there's the "greenies were as bad as roids' idiots. They're not and I tackled that six years ago. That said, per the old "Canseco milkshake" and related, there is probably at least one roider already in the Hall. Click the link for my guess on who.

Oh, I've battled the "Big Hall" issue for more than a decade. See here, for example, when Red Satan writers and others complained about a "backlog." Red Satan has tainted a lot of minds, and amplified others, obviously. Jaffe, mentioned above about being sabermetrically selective, was another whiner about an alleged "backlog."

==

Meanwhile, the biggest travesty continues in that Danny Murtaugh was STILL not voted in as a manager. Two WS champs, two other NL East champs, all while battling multiple rounds of the disease that would kill him. 

Bad Bill Dahlen also robbed. Over 70 WAR. Actually deserving.

==

Notes on commeters: "Unknown" had one reasonable comment on Pinson. Other than that, he (I presume) is hitting an increased level of smugness and worse, as well as willfully reading past my comments that I don't want anybody in the Hall, and also not commenting back on the worthiness of those I mentioned, such as Dahlen and Murtaugh on this vote, or Munson and Whitaker elsewhere.

Comment moderation exists for a reason.

No, WAR is not perfect, but, in an actually good piece at Red Satan, I quote:

The goal of WAR is to give the most complete sense of a player's value to his team, and it's perhaps the best piece of data to compare the greatness of one player to the next.

There you go. Couldn't have said it better myself. Now, get off my lawn.

Cooperstown: The case against David Ortiz

You'll find plenty of blogs, especially Red Sox related ones, making the case FOR David Ortiz to enter the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Here's the case against.

First, the PEDing cloud. Big Papi reportedly tested positive in 2003. He then came up with his unique version of the BS in such cases, claiming "regional bias" led to the result being leaked. He later claimed to be "always afraid of chemicals."

Second? He played his career prime in a bandbox ballpark that drove his counting stats up. (He also went there at the same time eventual PEDing repeat offender Manny Ramirez was hitting his peak.) His OPS+, ballpark-adjusted, is just 141. WAR is also ballpark adjusted. For comparison, Albert Pujols, with the much-longer career, more time actually playing the field and suffering wear and tear, etc? Still has an OPS+ of 144.

And so, behind the gaudy counting stats, Ortiz has ... 55.3 WAR.

Never had a 7-WAR season. Even setting aside his defensive liabilities and the DH positional ding? He never even had a 7-oWAR season.

Sure, pitchers didn't want to pitch to him in Fenway, because he was a dead-pull hitter in a bandbox, even beyond the PEDing.

BBWAA younger voters claim to be eyeing sabermetrics more. We'll see how true this actually is. Contemporaneous first-ballot player, and rival, Alex Rodriguez also roided up, and not allegedly, possibly, or leaked, but also posted sabermetric numbers at the same time. (That includes nine 7-WAR seasons.)

Other than A-Rod, who, setting aside the roiding, likely would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer like "clean" versions of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, I don't see a single HOFer among first-year candidates. Mark Teixeira is, after A-Rod, the only first-year player over 50 WAR Jimmy Rollins? Hall of the Pretty Good, no more, and after Tex, the only first-year player over 40 WAR. (Oh, and while I'm here, nobody on the "Golden Days" veterans ballot deserves in AS A PLAYER, but who knows what various committee members will pull? And yes, Dick Allen? Not a HOFer. From the early era, yeah, let's get Buck O'Neil in for his contributions. Blast from the past Bill Dahlen is deserving. Ken Boyer is borderline of borderline.)

Non-players? Danny Murtaugh is WAY OVERDUE to be in as a manager. Two World Series. Had he lived, would have been the 1979 pilot as well. Re Murtaugh? An "interesting" piece here by Cooperstown Cred, who notes Murtaugh's health history and repeated retirements because of it, but does NOT take it into account in touting him. He links to Bill James, who likewise mentioned it but does NOT take it into account.

Back to Ortiz. Another way of putting it? A close comp on WAR, WAR7 and JAWS? Tony Perez. He went in on veterans vote. Scratch that. I had thought it was a Veterans Committee vote; instead, BBWAA voted him in. And probably shouldn't have.

Buster Posey is NOT a first-ballot HOFer

This is an expansion, editing and reframing of my post of three days ago about the retirement of Buster Posey and whether he would make the Hall of Fame, and if so, sooner than Yadier Molina.

The expansion and reframing is necessitated by big Giants homerism from a few MLB Trade Rumors commenters, most notably "AndyHighRoller," as well as some Twinkies homerism tagging along for the case of Joe Mauer, and other things.

So, let's dive in.

On Wednesday, Posey announced he was retiring from the San Francisco Giants, leaving a $22M team option year that likely would have been picked up on the table, and a possible ticket to Cooperstown.

As MLB Trade Rumors noted, a year ago, Posey looked more beat. He also has had many injuries in his career, so it's not a total stunner to see him moving on, and leaving on a relatively high note.

And now, to the discussion in the headline of this post. Has Posey "punched his ticket" to Cooperstown, and more so, is he a first-ballot Hall of Famer, vis a vis Giants homers?

Is Posey's 44.9 WAR enough to make Cooperstown? Possibly, but almost surely not on the first ballot.

As I said in the previous post, there's good reasons why he wont' make it on the first ballot, assuming he's a BBWAA selection any time in his 10-year period. I said he'll be lucky to do it in five years.

Ted Simmons is the last catcher to go in, and he was a veterans committee choice with 50.3 career WAR. He fell off the BBWAA ballot after a single year. You read that right.

Posey is 14th on catchers' JAWS ranking. He does have one 7-WAR season, a benchmark for backstops and an MVP for that season.

OK, let's look at recent BBWAA inductees. We're talking Gary Carter and Mike Piazza, first. I'll get to one other one in a minute.

To put it bluntly? The BBWAA of the last, oh, 25 years has hated catchers. Carter, with 70.1 WAR and second to Johnny Bench on the JAWS list, needed SIX ballots to get in. Pizza Man, fifth on JAWS, needed four. Yes, you read those right. Carlton Fisk, fourth on catchers' WAR, needed "only" two. Maybe Carter and Piazza got backlash from NYC voters just like Munson. Who knows, but that's my one guess. Yogi Berra also didn't get in on the first try. It took Roy Campanella seven votes (including two weird 1960s "runoffs") in five seasons before he got in. (Campy was twice at the edge of 7 WAR in a 154-game season. He's at 42 WAR if you, like B-Ref, include his Negro Leagues. I don't, but the the issue of "the Negro Leagues are now the Major Leagues" is a whole matter on its own. On the issue of including WAR, for players who started in the Negro Leagues but then eventually joined the MLB, given that the Negro Leagues weren't MLB, I'd rather make a reasonable extrapolation backward off MLB time.)

Think that's bad? It was worse yet before that.

Bill Dickey needed 11 tries, 8 if you throw out those runoffs. Mickey Cochrane needed seven/six.

An offense-first, but not bad defensively catcher, Posey will almost certainly be compared and contrasted to defense-first, pitch-framing and intangibles Molina, who will be back in 2022 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Molina, meanwhile sits at 42.1 and is unlikely to pass Posey next year. He might not do it in two years, even.

And, as for his Cooperstown chances? Seven years by writers' vote, if that early, even though people at places like Red Satan have touted his pitch framing and other intangibles. 

Giants homers? I'm a Cards fan, but this is how you do it without being a homer.

It's true that pitch-framing is an intangible. But, Yadi, like Posey and like Munson, does have a 7-WAR season on the books. (Simmons does not, and that may have hurt him.) Posey is also above the HOF average for catchers on WAR/162 games, reflecting his relatively short career. He ranks roughly the same as Munson, ahead of HOFers like Fisk and Berra, and roughly even with Carter. His JAWS7 is roughly the same as the first two. On the WAR/162, he's well ahead of Yadi.

Both Posey and Molina could be helped by being one-team players, though, as well as having had plenty of postseason success.

Ivan Rodriguez, though not a one-team player, but pretty much a two-team player, and with no 7-WAR seasons, but with four 6-WAR ones, but some say with an (ahem) asterisk, is the only catcher besides Bench to be a first-ballot entry in the last 50 years, or ever. He may be good news for Molina, as he's the only catcher to outrank him in dWAR.

MLB Trade Rumors has Yankees fans touting Jorge Posada. His odds? Think not. Even with Molina on WAR, though a bit ahead on JAWS7 and WAR/162. Never broke 6 WAR and not renowned defensively.

Joe Mauer? Too many games at 1B/DH with too little power. (I don't have a paid B-Ref account, but my guesstimates, from when he started the move, are 41 WAR behind the plate and 14 elsewhere. Note also his "runs from positional scarcity" going negative from 2014 on.) Yes, he had concussions that led to him leaving the backstop. And? Posey had concussions, too, and that broken leg. Simmons had a pretty bad broken leg in what was looking to be his best season ever. Molina had that foul tip that bounced just wrong to bounce behind his cup and whack him in the nads. Mauer, due to the amount of games at 1B/DH, would need a minimum of 60 WAR. (And, yeah, there's full-time 1B entries in the Hall below that, but? They don't belong there.)

Basically, we have two issues.

One is BBWAA voters and the likelihood of a player's entry.

The other is the average of fans' thoughts.

The Giant homer, and others like him, are ignorant of the BBWAA, and present their homerism as the average of fan thought. They're wrong on both.

My five years on Buster, and seven on Yadi? That's my guesstimates. I think the BBWAA has probably gotten a bit smarter with, and since, Rodriguez's induction. But, I'm allowing for that. I first wrote that in my previous post because I forgot about how long Carter and Piazza took.

My estimates as to how long they should take also reflect in part what I think about both of them, based on the idea that Fisk and Carter should have both gone in on their first year of eligibility, and that Piazza probably should have. So, yes, I think Posey and Molina are that far behind them.

Sidebar, for fans who visit both? I think Fangraphs is way wrong a lot of time, either too high or too low, on dWAR for players at defense-heavy positions. Posey is NOT a 57.6 WAR guy. Even more so, Yadi is not a 55.6 WAR guy. I also don't like that, unlike B-Ref, it doesn't list oWAR and dWAR separately. (Sometimes, it screws the pooch the other way. Ozzie Smith has 10 fewer WAR at Fangraphs, for example.)

Buster Posey beating Yadier Molina to Cooperstown, if either belong

In a semi-stunner, Buster Posey is reportedly going to retire from the San Francisco Giants, leaving a $22M team option year that likely would have been picked up on the table, and a possible ticket to Cooperstown.

As MLB Trade Rumors notes, a year ago, Posey looked more beat. He also has had many injuries in his career, so it's not a total stunner to see him moving on, and leaving on a relatively high note.

And now, to the discussion in the headline of this post. Has Posey "punched his ticket"?

An offense-first, but not bad defensively catcher, Posey will be touted for the Hall of Fame, and will almost certainly be compared and contrasted to defense-first, pitch-framing and intangibles Yadier Molina, who will be back in 2022 with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Is Posey's 44.9 WAR enough to make Cooperstown? Possibly, but almost surely not on the first ballot.

Ted Simmons is the last catcher to go in, and he was a veterans committee choice with 50.3 career WAR.

Posey is 14th on catchers' JAWS ranking. He does have one 7-WAR season, a benchmark for backstops and an MVP for that season. In that, he compares to Thurman Munson, the best catcher currently not in the Hall, revenge-fucked by NYC writers for the BBWAA, and weirdly, continually, overlooked by the veterans committee in various incarnations. (Oh, anybody who claims it's not a big injustice that Munson's not in? Wrong.)

Molina, meanwhile sits at 42.1 and is unlikely to pass Posey next year. He might not do it in two years, even.

It's true that pitch-framing is an intangible. (Or, theoretically. Fangraphs rates this, and it's probably even more subjective than other defensive ratings, and I trust Fangraphs less on defense than B-Ref.  And, if FRM is framing there, then this guy is wrong about how close Buster and Yadi are; also, Fangraphs says that framing is not part of its version of dWAR anyway.) But, Yadi, like Posey and like Munson, does have a 7-WAR season on the books. (Simmons does not, and that may have hurt him.) Posey is also above the HOF average for catchers on WAR/162 games, reflecting his relatively short career. He ranks roughly the same as Munson, ahead of HOFers like Carlton Fisk and Yogi Berra, and roughly even with Gary Carter. His JAWS7 is roughly the same as the first two. On the WAR/162, he's well ahead of Yadi.

My prediction? He'll get in, by writers' vote, but will need at least five years.

Contra Giants homers on MLBTR? Carter needed six ballots. Mike Piazza needed four. (Given comments at MLBTR and elsewhere, I now have a new post addressing the first-ballot issue for Posey in particular vs catchers in general.)

Yadi? Seven years minimum if writers do put him in. I last tackled his case four years ago. It hasn't gotten any worse in my eyes, but it hasn't gotten significantly better, either.

Both could be helped by being one-team players, though, as well as having had plenty of postseason success.

MLB Trade Rumors has Yankees fans touting Jorge Posada. His odds? Think not. Even with Molina on WAR, though a bit ahead on JAWS7 and WAR/162. Never broke 6 WAR and not renowned defensively.

Joe Mauer? Too many games at 1B/DH with too little power.

Is Yadier Molina a Hall of Famer (repost)?

Yadier Molina, the St. Louis Cardinals' backstop for going on 15 years, and arguably the best defensive catcher since Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez, insists that, like Pudge, he belongs in Cooperstown. So do many Cardinal fan blogs.

But, does he?

 

(Note: This is a repost because the original HTML that I had posted using Baseball-Reference's "linker" was apparently invalid. And that's because they changed the order of some of the specific material within the linking for players' names since I first blogged this in advance two weeks ago.

 

Update to the note: OK, maybe it wasn't invalid. As, now, both this AND the original seem to be getting picked up. Just another bad day from B-Ref's RSS feed for blogs. See bottom of page.)

Yes, he broke a counting stats with 2,000 hits, but let's look at the big picture, as I remain less than fully convinced.

First, WAR. He's right at 40, and given his last three years, he won't cross 42 next year, with him pushing off his retirement another year. He could play two more years and not cross 43.

That would leave him behind, among others, the career-ended-by-death Thurman Munson, who criminally is still not in the Hall. It would put him even with Jorge Posada and behind Bill Freehan.

Does anybody think either of them is a HOFer?

Right now, he's 24th in the JAWS ranks.

BUT his defense?!?!

First, dWAR still remains even more subjective than oWAR.

Second, one of the catches ahead of him in dWAR is ... Bob Boone, not close to being a HOFer. In a near tie? Jim Sundberg, also not a HOFer. Tony Pena and Rick Dempsey, among others, have two-thirds his dWAR. Not HOFers.

Now, Yadi's defenders will be saying, but, all that offense!

Well, he had more than Boone or Dempsey. (That, of course, ain't saying much.) Not Sundberg, who's an almost exact comp. And, someone with less dWAR but again, almost the same total? Darrell Porter. Good player. Compelling personal story. Not a HOFer.

Throw in him still being below 1,000 RBIs, which he'll need two seasons to cross, and under 200 HRs, which he won't, period?

 

Related: Of catchers with 2,000 or more hits, he's second-last in homers, last in OPS, second-last in OPS+.

 

Let me put it another way, fellow Birds fans. Right now, besides some of those older catchers, his closest career comp, among semi-contemporaries? Jason Kendall.

Or to put it a third way? Due to the relative lack of offense, he doesn't even have the best WAR of active catchers. Buster Posey does. And, Posey's peak WAR for his seven best years is eight full points ahead of Yadi.

Not a HOFer.

But, that pitch framing!

How do you know Boone wasn't better? Or, certainly, Johnny Bench? Or, Yogi Berra, who reportedly made any pitcher who joined the Yankees better?

I certainly expect him to break 5 percent with the voters in his first year of eligibility, but I'd be surprised to see him ever get over 35 percent or so.

In the Cardinals pantheon picture? Paul Goldschmidt, in my book, is the only person currently wearing birds on bats who has a 50 percent shot or better at Cooperstown, and post-trade, his chances aren't much higher than 50 percent.

Next catcher? Either Posey or Munson, if the next Modern Era version of the "Veterans Committee" pulls its collective head out of its collective ass. (I hope, and semi-expect, writers will recognize that much of Joe Mauer's career was at 1B/DH, and his numbers are nowhere near 1B HOF level. (Posey is moving out from the plate more and more, but I assume he'll still do a fair amount of catching in 2021, and the year off may have rejuvenated him.)

Meanwhile, Kool-Aid peddling Cards fan blogs talk about things like "most clutch Cardinal." Go away. 

I would, to finish prepping for the future, give Yadi ONE more year at a cut rate, and make it clear that, short of him being named Comeback Player of the Year, a second year ain't in the offing. The Cardinals were wisely unsentimental about Albert Pujols and need to take the same stance here.

===

Oh, per the material in parentheses up top? This is frustrating. Since it went to this "linker," I've also seen B-Ref's RSS feed once be "12 hours slow" and once have a full multiple days of glitchiness.

A weird sidebar on that. There are multiple Tony Pena's in MLB history. The Linker deal doesn't sort them out and you have to wade through the HTML as to whether you want THE Tony Pena, as in the Cards' catcher, or one of two later Tony Penas. Ditto for other named duplicated in MLB history, and the Linker doesn't cue you to ask for one of the three. When adjusting the HTML under the hood at the original blog post, as in replacing it for all players' names, I realized that it wasn't that way for Pena there, and I'm not sure I had fixed it; another clue, if I didn't fix it, that something was wrong with the generated HTML.

Is Yadier Molina a Hall of Famer?

Yadier Molina, the St. Louis Cardinals' backstop for going on 15 years, and arguably the best defensive catcher since Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez, insists that, like Pudge, he belongs in Cooperstown. So do many Cardinal fan blogs.

But, does he?

Yes, he broke a counting stats with 2,000 hits, but let's look at the big picture, as I remain less than fully convinced.

First, WAR. He's right at 40, and given his last three years, he won't cross 42 next year, with him pushing off his retirement another year. He could play two more years and not cross 43.

That would leave him behind, among others, the career-ended-by-death Thurman Munson, who criminally is still not in the Hall. It would put him even with Jorge Posada and behind Bill Freehan.

Does anybody think either of them is a HOFer?

Right now, he's 24th in the JAWS ranks.

BUT his defense?!?!

First, dWAR still remains even more subjective than oWAR.

Second, one of the catches ahead of him in dWAR is ... Bob Boone, not close to being a HOFer. In a near tie? Jim Sundberg, also not a HOFer. Tony Pena and Rick Dempsey, among others, have two-thirds his dWAR. Not HOFers.

Now, Yadi's defenders will be saying, but, all that offense!

Well, he had more than Boone or Dempsey. (That, of course, ain't saying much.) Not Sundberg, who's an almost exact comp. And, someone with less dWAR but again, almost the same total? Darrell Porter. Good player. Compelling personal story. Not a HOFer.

Throw in him still being below 1,000 RBIs, which he'll need two seasons to cross, and under 200 HRs, which he won't, period?

 

Related: Of catchers with 2,000 or more hits, he's second-last in homers, last in OPS, second-last in OPS+.

 

Let me put it another way, fellow Birds fans. Right now, besides some of those older catchers, his closest career comp, among semi-contemporaries? Jason Kendall.

Or to put it a third way? Due to the relative lack of offense, he doesn't even have the best WAR of active catchers. Buster Posey does. And, Posey's peak WAR for his seven best years is eight full points ahead of Yadi.

Not a HOFer.

But, that pitch framing!

How do you know Boone wasn't better? Or, certainly, Johnny Bench? Or, Yogi Berra, who reportedly made any pitcher who joined the Yankees better?

I certainly expect him to break 5 percent with the voters in his first year of eligibility, but I'd be surprised to see him ever get over 35 percent or so.

In the Cardinals pantheon picture? Paul Goldschmidt, in my book, is the only person currently wearing birds on bats who has a 50 percent shot or better at Cooperstown, and post-trade, his chances aren't much higher than 50 percent.

Next catcher? Either Posey or Munson, if the next Modern Era version of the "Veterans Committee" pulls its collective head out of its collective ass. (I hope, and semi-expect, writers will recognize that much of Joe Mauer's career was at 1B/DH, and his numbers are nowhere near 1B HOF level. (Posey is moving out from the plate more and more, but I assume he'll still do a fair amount of catching in 2021, and the year off may have rejuvenated him.)

Meanwhile, Kool-Aid peddling Cards fan blogs talk about things like "most clutch Cardinal." Go away. 

I would, to finish prepping for the future, give Yadi ONE more year at a cut rate, and make it clear that, short of him being named Comeback Player of the Year, a second year ain't in the offing. The Cardinals were wisely unsentimental about Albert Pujols and need to take the same stance here.