Buy Nothing Day may not have accomplished much

Per this piece, which is of course very preliminary, and doesn't appear to have looked at shopping AFTER Feb. 28, that's about what I expected when I skeptically mocked the idea, both based on past history and on wondering what oversight John Schwartz has.

Amazon? Actually up slightly. Overall e-commerce down 4 percent from the Friday before and 6 percent from a year ago. But, how much of that is due to this and how much is due to economic fears, from tariffs and other things, who knows? In addition to the People's Union, Target had been targeted (I see what I did) for all of February by Black groups made it rolled back diversity, equity and inclusion measures. These groups may also have thought Schwartz was late to the part, bigfooting them or whatever.

Also, there's the question of will this last. A good comp here is sales tax holidays. Do you buy any more shirts, socks and undies for a full year, or even six months, just because you buy a bunch on a sales tax holiday? I don't.

But, back to Schwarz. His People's Union, or "People's" Union until he has more transparency, is going more grifting:

Starting in the second week of March, I will be releasing exclusive member only video blogs right here on The People’s Union USA website! These will be powerful, inspiring, and detailed video messages covering:

• How we can organize more effectively
  

• Upcoming events & strategic actions
  

• Updates on the movement, website, and progress
  

• Real discussions on where we go from here
  

This is just the beginning of something bigger. Together, we are building a movement that cannot be ignored. Stay tuned, stay engaged, and let’s keep making history.

And, how much will a membership cost?

The TrumpTrain "economic miracle" is about to jump the tracks

Is the economy worse now than Jan. 20, 2019? Via Zero Hedge, unemployment stats say yes.

Wouldn’t it be horrible if the number of Americans without a job was higher today than it was during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009?  Well, that is actually true.

Paging the #TrumpTrain — economic cleanup on Aisle 5; toxic spill is spreading! Michael Snyder adds that, because states have continued to tighten unemployment eligibility, the spike in filings mean that it's really a BIG problem.

Related? The workforce participation rate remains at 63 percent. Per the graph at left, it hasn't budged more than half a percentage point or two one way or the other for almost seven years.

The conclusion seems right. Many people still aren't that financially ready to beat another recession, which odds indicate are likely to happen soon. Worse? Trump, other than wanting to fire Powell as Fed head, is likely to pull a 1920s and double down on tariffs.

The coming recession, without that, probably won't be that bad. But, Trump's volatility will make it worse. How that plays out, and is played, in the 2020 election will be interesting indeed.

The larger problems are structural and, as they have been for 40 years, caused in various degrees by both duopoly parties. Eric Levitz from the NY Mag says but "prime age" labor participation rate is up, without asking why this is the case, if true. Maybe more 20somethings can't afford college? Maybe more mothers are now working mothers? 

Nor does he try to square this with the overall participation rate still being stagnant.

Wall Street vs. Main Street, and also economic robustness vs. fragility

First, a, 1,000-point drop, as in Monday's, on the Dow Jones isn't THAT big. Yeah, 4 percent.

But, I"m old enough to remember the 1987 plunge, and plunge it was. The 508-point drop on the biggest day, as a percentage of the Dow, was far larger. That drop, of 22.61 percent, was also far bigger than any single day's drop during the 2008 financial crisis, though not part of the same type of trend. See Wiki for more, including that Monday's drop didn't even make the top 20 for worst one-day declines. I suspect it doesn't even make the top 40. In fact, the whole set of drops from late last week through Mondy

Second, the market is overheated. This is the reverse of gold going through the roof shortly after Obama took office and anybody with a brain knows that.

Third, Wall Street is not Main Street. Unfortunately, all Republicans, including small-town Main Street ones, I think think that it is. So do a majority of national level Democrats.

This is doubly true when trading is all computer-driven.

Fourth, job quit rates hit a 17-year high last month. Wall Street got butt-hurt over possibly having to pay employees more money.

Fifth, I've said for more than a year now that I expect a recession, probably by the end of this year. And, it may not be bad, but it doesn't have to be bad to be bad.

Despite Republicans, and perhaps grudgingly, perhaps not, centrist as well as conservative economists touting the current economic robustness, it ain't.

Nine years after the big crash and we're just now getting the "upward pressure on wages" that Wall Street purportedly hates.

The current drop is indeed just a correction, not a bear market. But that doesn't mean the Dow will stay here. One thing that will result from the Fed moving interest rates up is that the Dow will naturally fall further as other investments gain attractiveness. Whether Dow doublers-down make the Dow's longer, larger readjustment into a recession cause celebre I don't know. If they do, it's their fault. To riff on Chris Tomlinson, traders and companies have gotten drunk on cheap money.

But, I think a recession is still headed here for other reasons. And, even if it's not bad, per two paragraphs above, we don't have a robust economy. Even a mild recession will hurt hard, given continued growth in income inequality that happened under Obama's watch.

Gallup, public, have good news for Dear Leader

I don’t know how much of a bounce he is going to get from this, or how much of a firewall it already is, but a new Gallup poll reports that for the first time in five years, more people feel better off than worse off, financially. It’s a slight edge, and no more, but, it’s not much less than Bush had in 2004.

And, that includes 34 percent of those independents that are so crucial in the so-called swing states. Obama’s still slightly negative there, with 40 percent of them feeling worse off … but that’s not too bad, he has to figure.

Add in that it’s likely that by election day, if not already, Obama will have presided over a net jobs gains as president, and may be getting help from that, and it all looks good for his re-election.

Especially if you add in the fact, as Nate Silver reports, that he’s apparently fully stopped the bleeding from the Denver debate and Romney has no more momentum.

But, this is about more than just the US presidential election.

Such feeling isn't just for the present term:

Although Americans' evaluations of their current finances, overall, are fairly tepid, 66% are optimistic when asked whether they expect their financial situations to be better or worse a year from now. This includes 80% of Democrats, but also 62% of independents, and 57% of Republicans.

Herbert Hoovers and Barack Obamas aside, "confidence" is part of the issue for a modern economy, especially a capitalistic one. And, it’s “funny” that only 16 percent of Republicans admit feeling better now

This may not give Obama too much of a bounce now, BUT ....

If Preznit Kumbaya will become Preznit Cojones in his second term, this will help him with the GOP.

Also, if this means a bit fewer people on unemployment AND more tax dinero coming into the Treasury, it helps him that way.

It might, just might (but likely not, this is ingrained) lead him to be Preznit Cojones vis a vis his own Catfood Commission.

By a 56-33 margin — higher than for the second debate — people think Obama won the third debate. That includes a 56-27 split among those coveted independents.

Good news for the economy

And for Obama. The unemployment rate has fallen again, to 8.3 percent, and new hiring exceeded expectations.


Not to be too Herbert Hoover-ish, but, expectations are an economic issue in and of themselves. And, therefore, news like this is doubly good. The "expectations" angle should improve more again, if only a bit.


And, as noted, it's good news for Obama. If the unemployment rate can drop another three-tenths of a percent by Labor Day, to 8.0, he will have "momentum" headed into the general election. And, with more people paying more taxes, the deficits will narrow.

Economic good news, it seems

I won't link to the stories, because they're getting splashed everywhere. But, first, November unemployment fell in 41 of 50 states as part of the national drop to 8.6 percent. Second, albeit primarily due to apartment construction, the housing industry is set to be part of the solution, not part of the problem, for the economy for the first time since 2007. Third, a Gallup Poll notes that Americans not only expect to spend more than 10 percent more on Christmas this year than last year, but personally feel more confident about making such spending, not just having a "generic" increasing confidence for the economy in general.

We've still got a ways to go. But, this is a start.

More 'tohu wevohu' for the economy - and for Obama?

For you non-biblical scholars, the words in italics are Hebrew from Genesis 1, about how the Earth was "formless and void" before Yahweh intervened.

Well, an AP survey of economists, while not having a majority predicting an actual second recessionary dip, does predict ongoing tohu wevohu into next year. That said, recession odds have been upped to 26 percent.

Now, what does this mean for 2012 elections?

On the presidential side, as I've said before, it all depends on who wins the GOP nod. Obama likely loses to Romney or Huntsman. Unless the economy tanks, though, he beats any other current GOP candidate - if he runs his campaign right. (Besides the grudge match of Rick Perry, it would be fun to see, for history and laughs alike, Herman Cain against Obama.)

Now, there is the caveat of running his campaign right. A Perry should be absolute poison to independents. And, Obama did sandbag McCain on the TARP vote issue in 2008. (Among many sandbagging acts.)

Of course, I'll still be voting Green, so, other than the chess match, I'm more concerned about Obama's pending jobs program, as to what it does for the country.

What's needed?
1. Direct federal jobs creation, or payments to states for direct state job creation, for infrastructure repair.
2. Targeted tax credits for creation of full-time non-contract jobs.
3. A moratorium on free-trade agreements unless they're proven to boost jobs, i.e., kill the "backdoor to China" non-free trade deal with South Korea.
4. Money for long-term job-retraining and career-vocational programs outside traditional collegiate education.

Another good reason for Obama to get TOTALLY out of Iraq …

And to not dump too many new troops in Afghanistan, either?

Those $1 trillion deficits he expects for several years to come. Of course, since Shrub has put the Iraq spending off budget, technically, Obama cuts in Iraq spending wouldn’t make a difference to the budget. But, such cuts would make a difference to investors from Wall Street, Shanghai and elsewhere.

Even outside of that, the key tell is the deficit as percentage of gross domestic product. Here, Obama’s potential 7 percent deficit would break Ronald Reagan’s 1983 6 percent previous non-war record.

That said, part of this is Bush's fault. Things such as TARP and the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac prop-up, which the Bush Administration labeled as "investments, are counted as part of this $1 trillion by the Congressional Budget Office, and rightfully so.

Oh, speaking of that, I am getting tired of talking heads saying we’re in the worst economic crisis since the Depression. Being old enough here to remember the 1980-82 double-dip recession, I can say that current economic stats aren’t yet close to matching even that situation.

While whistling past the economic graveyard sometimes is just that, at other times, it’s good self-talk. At this time, especially since there’s no evidence to back up media doom and gloom talk, we could use more whistling past the graveyard.

Consumer confidence and home prices plunge

Consumer confidence hit afive-year low. And here’s the worst part — economic analysts were far off on their predictions:

The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. The March reading was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson/IFR.

High gas prices, combined with the continued housing slump, are likely the top culprits. And, speaking of “continued housing slump,” U.S. big-city home prices

were off 11.4 percent in January. It’s the sharpest drop since such information started being collected in 1987

The decline, reported today in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index, means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months, the story reports.

More proof the dollar is going in the crapper – will OPEC follow?

Russian oil and gas giant Lukoil is discussing denominating its sales in rubles by 2009.

OPEC members Iran and Venezuela have already said that oil consortium should switch to the euro for similar reasons, but OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has put the kibosh on that, so far.

However, if other Russian oil and gas companies follow Lukoil into ruble-land, or even the Euro-zone, the pressure on the Saudis to at least do dual denomination, as in the old, pre-1970s OPEC doing dollar-pound sterling dual denomination, will increase.