America as failed state: Colorado v Trump

Caught snatches of the live argumentation in front of the Supreme Court on NPR. Here's one of the stories from Thursday. SCOTUSBlog has more.

A few thoughts, with an intro before that.

First, not only poor countries "out there" can be failed states, i.e. Afghanistan. The tail end of Weimar Germany was quite arguably a failed state even before Hitler took the oath of office as chancellor.

Second and related? If not a failed state, the USofA, aka Merikkka, is a failing state. Period and end of story, especially to backers of both duopoly parties.

OK, to the story itself.

First, this is obviously a reason to get rid of the electoral college. That's what, reason No. 412 or something?

Second, this is a good reason to move beyond that and officially make the election for president a national, not a "federal," election. If that meant different rules on absentee ballots, etc., than currently more restrictive states, so be it. Arguments by various justices in the SCOTUSBlog piece underscore that.

Third, it's also a good argument to, if possible, truly overhaul our government into a parliamentary system. It's harder to do the Hillary Clinton attempt at controlled opposition when a prime ministerial candidate is already leader of the opposition and depends on coming to power on nationwide vote for MPs. Arguments by various justices in the SCOTUSBlog piece underscore that, too.

That said?

A. Parliamentary systems are no guarantee against becoming a failed or failing nation. On the former, see Weimer Germany, above. On the latter, see post-Brexit Britain. 

B. The mechanics are partly at issue. Westminster-type systems with first past the post single-member districts tend to squeeze out third parties. Systems that are purely proportional and don't have modern Germany's 5 percent hurdle let in all the nutters.

Fourth, and related, we'll likely have more and more Russiagate-type bullshit claims in the future. After all, the NYT tried to revive it for the 2022 midterms. Note also former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, not content with anti-Republican smears, claiming that Russia and president Vladimir Putin are behind pro-Palestinian protestors. (Code Pink and founder Medea Benjamin recently confronted her on this.)

Fifth, it's funny how people can always shape shift on federalism = states as "laboratory of democracy" when their ox is being gored. That includes, per the top link, a possible majority of the black-robed Kourt Klan Konklave thinking Colorado can't do what it did.

As for the black-robed KKK trying to reason its way to keeping Trumpy safe?

The only reason I would agree is "ripeness" grounds. Trump hasn't been directly charged with insurrection, or aiding and abetting. Blame Jack Smith, #BlueAnon. Trump's attorney, Jonathan Miller, tried to put a spin on this by differentiating between an election and actually serving. (Not that he thinks Trump should be disqualified should he be re-elected, of course.)

Otherwise? John Roberts et al seem to have a semi-novel interpretation of the 14th Amendment being written to rein in state powers.

If he, Slammin Sammy Alito et al are worried about different states reaching different conclusions, see the top of this piece. Colorado's attorney, Jason Murray, addressed much of his objections, and his fellow travelers, per SCOTUSBlog. Besides, there's that old Gorsuch ruling.

I will actually credit Alito for discussing what all might count as "insurrection." This gets much deeper, really, and beyond both duopoly parties, to things like undeclared wars and "cold wars."

There's also the issue of general deference to political parties on primary election ballots vs general election ballots. That said, given that Trump's going to win, it would be stupid to put him on a GOP primary ballot, if the Colorado plaintiffs are right about the 14th Amendment in general.

Sixth, doesn't this ultimately show what a clusterfuck the Constitution of the United States is? And, that gets us back to America as failed state.

Texas Progressives round up to start 2021, insurrection free

Let's see if 2021 is better than 2020. So far, it's off to a nutty enough start of its own, and that was even before the invasion of the U.S. Capitol, which is going to get a special header.

With that, let's dig into the first Roundup of the new year, starting with yesterday's nuttery.

Insurrection

Start with my post yesterday about Ashli Babbit, who will surely soon be made into a martyr. Then look at what I said about Jonathan Turley, a kinder, gentler Matt Taibbi in his whataboutism. I started the day with looking at Ted Cruz, 2024 Pander Bear.

Texas

The Trib gives a redistricting overview, and reminds that this will be the first since the Supreme Court and alleged librul umpire John Roberts junked Voting Rights Act preclearance.

Grits looks at rot in the Austin police academy. 

Dos Centavos is proud to unveil DC'sTop 10 Posts of 2020.

Reform Austin looks ahead to education-related bills in the Legislature.  

Michael Conklin studies the question of whether Dan Patrick owes someone a million bucks for his "voter fraud" reward. 

Eric Berger and Matt Lanza look back at the year in hurricanes.

Texana

The Monthly offers up its favorite 2020 photos.

Daniel Vaughn tries the Cornyn brisket recipe so you don't have to.

The Observer offers up its favorite 2020 strange but true.

Texas metro areas

Jeff Balke describes the clash between neighborhood activists and TxDOT over their I-45 expansion plans.

Heywood Sanders advises the city of San Antonio to give up its delusions.

National

Here's the latest on the Russian hacks and how bad they may be. One note: With the Russians allegedly using servers inside the US, many national security hawks may again raise the cry to let the NSA do more inside the US. There's also the possibility that some of the hacking was by people, not computer networks.

Latinos for Trump was a real thing. Will it last beyond Trump? The New Yorker takes a deep look, and it's one that Democrats (and parties of the actual left) should not ignore.

Just how bad is Facebook for democracy? The New Republic takes a look.

David Bruce Collins wants left civility on Twitter. 

Finally, for fans of old-school blogging, Vagabond Scholar presents the Jon Swift Roundup for 2020.

Global

A mix of Brexit and COVID snarled the New Year's travel plans of many Brits trying to either return home or go back to the Continent. 

Tesla has plans to open a German factory with dreams of kicking German carmakers' butt. Turns out, they've been hard at work on e-cars and are instead ready to kick Tesla's butt.

Martin Luther was officially excommunicated 500 years ago, Jan. 3. My thoughts.

Insurrection. Period and end of story (for Ashli Babbit)

That's a good word for it. Will this affect the future of the GOP? Former WaPost columnist Harold Meyerson, the closest thing to an old labor liberal there before getting canned, says it will. I doubt it, and we've been hearing stuff like that for years, about demographic or other "destiny." Right, Gilberto Hinojosa? Here's my brief take on an attempted twosiderism jujitsu by Jonathan Turley. So far, Ted Cruz, 2024 Pander Bear over the electoral vote confirmation, is unrepentant.

We also know who the #MAGA insurrectionist was who got killed. Per San Diego's KUSI, she is Ashli Babbit. "Babbit," how appropriate of a name; I actually initially read it with a second "t" at the end, as in the Sinclair Lewis novel, which would only have been appropriate. Contra her husband, an insurrectionist is not a "great patriot." Also, if she was still in the Air Force, per this story, whether active duty or reserve, she clearly violated her military oath of service, among other things, and should have already been court-martialed. Contra KUSI, I extend no condolence to her family. Would I extend condolence to Peggy Shippen had Benedict Arnold been captured and hung? Per the last link, I feel condolence for her mother-in-law, but not totally, even there. If she really is that puzzled, she hasn't been paying attention to her daughter-in-law, or to Ashli's husband Aaron calling her a "great patriot" when she's been Trump-drunk months if not years.

All of this is just the surface of the iceberg.

In photos of the insurrectionists, I saw a number of people carrying placards that, at least indirectly, referencing things like Pizzagate. Besides the likes of two-faced, or two-anused, Tucker Carlson who a month ago said Sidney Powell had no evidence and today said it was "not their fault" to the insurrectionists, Pizzagate promoters like Jack Posobiec have blood on their hands, too.

Plus, the insurrectionists contributed to three other deaths inside the Capitol.

And, led to performance theater nutters like this:

This guy seen today with fur & horns is
Jake Angeli

His Facebook includes a photo of him shaking hands with Rudy Giuliani, Trump's personal attorney who hours before the violence kicked off today encouraged supporters to pursue a "trial by combat" pic.twitter.com/PrYOViZEVp

— ☇RiotWomenn☇ (@riotwomennn) January 7, 2021

What else is there to say? This:

And here’s “Antifa’s, non-Trump supporting” Jake Angeli speaking himself earlier in the year! 😂 pic.twitter.com/d4GvvEbXsC

— Rino (and sometimes Roy) (@RinoTheBeagle) January 6, 2021

And this at the link. And this link. He's a QAnoner. Hopefully, he loses every gig he has as a voice actor.

===

Also arguably having blood on their hands? The Capitol Police, who had myriad reasons to be better prepared, and more proactive, than they actually were. Today's performance invites questions of political, racial and class bias.

Just in case you're wondering? The federal criminal definition of sedition very much fits the action of leading actors on Jan. 6, specifically bullet points 2 and 3. This is why, contra the admins of the official Green Party Facebook group and people like Charles Keener here, it's important to know what percentage of self-identified Greens are conspiracy-thinking enough to consider this a "psyops." 

Ted Cruz, electoral college Pander Bear

Let's be honest, folks: That's the only reason Havana Ted Cruz decided to follow Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley today and officially challenge elector slates from several states.

Hawley has the 2024 presidential bug, and Cruz has not fully shaken his 2016 bout with that bacterium. Wisconsin's Ron Johnson is just an idiot, and I'm not sure about some of the other senators, but Cruz has that bug, and since 2016 it's mutated and swapped genes with Trumpism.

Cruz never really was a "principled conservative," but he's now made that clear.

Whether he can actually get the nomination in 2024 remains unclear. If he does, he has Texas' LBJ law to mean he can run for Senator again as well as president.

What will Nov. 3, and beyond, actually bring us on presidential election results?

Some very interesting, and possibly scary, thoughts, per the latter part of the post today.

Bill Barr: Officially Trump's fixer, says Norm Eisen. NPR adds more, about how Billy Bob is enabling Trump's BS on voting by mail. Speaking of ...

Despite Trump AND Republicans consistently for years claiming that Democrats, especially minorities, are most likely to "cheat" on voting by mail, many Blacks still distrust it, even during the pandemic. The story notes that Black and Hispanic ballots by mail are rejected at a higher rate than White ballots. (No information on Asian or American Indian ones.) Since Trump's postmaster general is cutting OT pay, and thus further slowing the mail, I can't blame their stance. Speaking of ...

Ben Smith discusses how media in general and TV in particular could botch election coverage. Speaking of ...

Look at all the different ways a transition in a disputed presidential election could play out. Dems lost the EC twice this century and yet, other national Dems haven't pushed Elizabeth Warren's effort to abolish it. (Yet another reason I'm not a Democrat.) Dems continue to fear ANY new traction for Greens more than they do continued Electoral College problems?

Eisen was one of the participants in role-play gaming this, which had one of four possible scenarios:
Each scenario involved a different election outcome: An unclear result on Election Day that looked increasingly like a Biden win as more ballots were counted; a clear Biden win in the popular vote and the Electoral College; an Electoral College win for Trump with Biden winning the popular vote by 5 percentage points; and a narrow Electoral College and popular vote victory for Biden.
In the scenarios, the team playing the Trump campaign often questioned the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, which often boosted Biden as they came in — shutting down post offices, pursuing litigation, and using right-wing media to amplify narratives about a stolen election.
My guesstimated order of likelihood, within the four?
No. 1, 35 percent;
No. 2, 40 percent;
No. 3, 10 percent;
No. 4, 15 percent.

Per Smith, yes, the US not having a national election commission (a real one, not the joke called the Federal Election Commission) is itself a problem.

And, in none of the four scenarios, do I expect Dems to be any more solicitous of getting rid of the Electoral College than they are now.

Texas Progressives talk primary runoffs, other things

Lots of stuff to dig into this week, as we await the results of primary runoffs and continue to watch the surge in Texas coronavirus cases, with more details on that, statewide, nationally, and globally, in the split-off portion of this week's Roundup.

That said, politicization claims aside, COVID and GOP politics do intersect. Let's dig in.

Both Strangeabbott and Danny Goeb have officially confirmed they have no balls, as the Texas GOP has said its state convention remains on to meet in person, but all bigwigs will speak virtually. Abbott has none over facing wingnut-plusers calling him out for "Masks On," and Patrick has none on matching words to mouth on dissing COVID, or on being 70-plus and not considering himself personally dispensable. Surprised? Sadly, since that initial story, Helltown Mayor Sly Turner removed their balllessness excuse by canceling the in-person convention.

That privately built border fence in the lower Valley? A stupidity that's going to fall into the Rio Grande sooner rather than later.

Meet the Texas GOP wingnut political candidates touting Q, whether as true believers or as political grifters. (Also note how many of them refused to talk to Texas Monthly.)

The challenges of being young, liberal (and, overlooked by Texas Monthly) wedded to the Democratic Party in Austin and having to deal with old, white liberals, especially when they demonstrate that they're far from free from implicit bias.

Trump and Cruz have dueling endorsements in the runoff in CD24 to see who will try to replace Will Hurd. Ronny Jackson, Trump's choice in CD13, will almost certainly get smoked. Trump's choice in Colorado CD5 got smoked by someone even more nutbar. Especially for endorsements to the "less nutbar" side of the GOP than Trump's, if they win nominations, whether or not general elections, how many of these will it take for the GOP to distance from Trump? And, if Trump loses re-election, how involved will he personally be in 2022?

SocraticGadfly had two third-party items of note. First, he said RIP to Mimi Soltysik, 2016 SPUSA presidential nominee. Second, he called out losing Green Party presidential candidate Dario Hunter for "going there" with identity politics and various other matters.

Related? The Supreme Court unanimously ruled states can punish so-called "faithless electors" in the electoral college. This is of a piece with state and federal courts boosting the duopoly parties and supporting third-party voter suppression, although mainstream media, and even a Rick Hasen at Election Law Blog fail to recognize this.

Off the Kuff has two more polls to analyze.

DosCentavos' early voting experience was quick, yet harrowing. The moral of the story ... don't leave until you click "CAST BALLOT."

Long read, but Scott Ritter has the nuanced truth about alleged Russian bounties on US troops. Have the MSM been hyping this to try to keep us in the hellhole of Afghanistan?

Federal judge rules the Dakota pipeline must be shut by early August, and stay shut for the duration of a review that's expected to last a full year.

Grits for Breakfast presents a primer for new, local police-reform advocates in Texas.

Dwight Silverman updates the "how to cut the cord" manual.

Christoph Spieler discusses why race is always there when we talk about transit.

Pedro Noguera wants a focus on equity when we reopen the schools.

Gadfly also offered a media analysis of the Democratic Senate runoff between MJ Hegar and Royce West.

Texas Progressives Roundup, part 2 of 2: Uber nuttery, other Texana and the best of the rest

Can't get to spring training?

Can't get some place to heckle the #CheatingAstros?

If you're under 18 and a baseball lover or a baseball team hater, please check with your parents before taking certain modes of transportation.

And, with that, we move beyond the Texas politics nuttery of this week's roundup, so busting at the seams we split it in half. Part 1, about Texas politics in the last week before primary election day, is here.


Texana

A Mount Pleasant mom is suing Uber for one of its drivers giving her under-18 and unaccompanied kid a ride to Atlanta to run the bases at the Barves stadium. No, really. Against Uber rules for sure, and possibly criminal? Also in bad taste. Go to Busch and run the Cardinals bases. Or go to Florida and bean Dusty Baker.

Sulphur dioxide in parts of east and central Texas has fallen 25 percent after the closure of three older, especially dirty, coal-fired power plants. Martin Creek still needs to be closed, and yes, per the Observer, increases in other pollution still need to be tackled.

Per new information from DeSmog Blog about "Peak Permian," many newly fracked wells are producing what's closer to condensate than traditional oil.


National

Congrats offered by Gadfly to four Green Party activists who have (for now) beaten the rap on their Venezuelan Embassy occupation trial. He also notes that, per the judge in the case, this is why he rejects Democrats' "Oh, the SCOTUS" call every four years.

Related? Justice Sotomayor accuses the current majority of pro-Trump bias on immigration. If only the four in the minority (and Tony the Swinging Pony Kennedy before he left) were more vigourous on issues besides reproductive choice and sexual relations freedom, and now, immigration.

Two consolidated "faithless elector" cases, consolidated, go to the Supremes April 28. I see this as a slam-dunk constitutionally; neither state political parties nor state laws can "bind" presidential electors. Period. National popular vote initiatives that are adopted on a reciprocal basis are likewise unenforceable.

In anticipation of Sanders' then-expected, now-finalized win in the Nevada caucuses, Brains analyzed the Dem Debate there.

Speaking of, Sanders pretty much knocked out of the park when interviewed by Anderson Cooper.

With Yang dropping out and Tulsi Gabbard pushing the Basic Income theme, SocraticGadfly again looked at libertarian vs progressive versions of BI and then dove into discussions about just how we should define the "gig economy" and who — within looser definitions of that group and perhaps outside tighter definitions — might benefit from different versions of BI.


Cultural

A Gabriel Garcia Marquez exhibit is running in Austin.

A new documentary, Trans Pecos, looks at the beauty of the greater Big Bend area and its threats from oil fracking.

Mueller Report realities

I have long believed that there has been no collusion between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. (Indeed, per links below, no such federal crime called "collusion" even exists.)

So, as we await the Mueller report, here's a summary of thoughts related to it, most of which have been held by my for many moons.

First, Putin's too smart to trust a flighty weathervane like Trump. And, in any case, Michael Cohen testified that no Steele dossier type of blackmail-able information exists. Frosty Douthat has a good roundup.

Second, Russian government spinoffs doing low-dollar meddling to confuse voters (and by social media activities that were both pro-Trump AND anti-Trump) is NOT "collusion." It IS, though, election meddling of some sort. (I know we've done that, too, but this post isn't about twosiderism or whataboutism. It's about where we're at on the pending Mueller Report.)

Third, yes, Trump may be laundering Russian mafiyya $$$ and rubles through his real estate empire, but that doesn't mean that Putin's masterminding the money laundering, let alone doing it for reasons related to Point the First. Again, he's smart enough to stay generally detached on something like that. Beyond that, he's "got his" to the tune of $200 million or something, so he doesn't need (more?) Russian mob money.

Fourth, although Julian Assange is NOT a journalist (he's not, and neither is Edward Snowden; neither have actually worked as journalists in any old or new media outlets), he's not an agent of the Russian Federation, either. BUT, he has LONG left himself open to that charge by not only not cultivating leakers inside Russia, but also not collating known leaks. As reported by Daily Beast, though, another group, Distributed Denial of Service, IS doing that as part of its work. In turn, while Assange continues to camp out at the Ecuadorean Embassy in London and it's a situation I don't like, it's also not a situation I cry too big a river about. I digress ...

Fifth, I understand how the 25th Amendment works better than Andrew McCabe.

Sixth, a Democratic Party that has lost two Electoral College votes this century should focus on amending the Constitution, not litigating the past election. You too, sheepdogging Bernie.

Seventh, at the same time, contra ShirtLost DumbShit Haller and many others, I do believe that, per points second and fourth above, there WAS an actual Guccifer 2.0. (Not sure what the likes of Mark Ames and Yasha Levine think on this one and it doesn't matter to me.)

Being known, like others, by my online enemies of sort, like Marcy Wheeler and the rest of the Kossack Dead-End Kids, per this, and other vaguely Donut Twitter types, convinces me of whereof I stand. That said, sadly, Bernie Sanders believes much of this, too, it seems.

Eighth, per Aaron Mate, up through mid-March, Mueller had yet to indict anybody for conspiracy with Russia. (That would be the actual charge, since "collusion" doesn't exist.)

With that all said, I present a great in-depth analysis of where we're at on the Mueller Report. Yes, it's the Washington Examiner. But, per Media Bias Fact Check, while they slant stuff at times, the information / facts are usually solid.

Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti largely agrees at Time. And, he says "both sides" (ignoring that there are really more than two sides to the issue) could well be disappointed. That said, the Donut Twitter side has set itself up for its disappointment. As Mariotti notes, there is no such federal crime called "collusion." (That may still be news to Emptywheel, Bmaz and the other Kossack Dead-Enders.)

What we really have, as I see it, is a lot of Donut Twitter wishing criminal law worked like civil law — preponderance of evidence instead of beyond a reasonable doubt. But, that AIN'T the way it works, quite fortunately.