RIP Joe Tillotson

No, nobody famous, and not a takedown obit.

Joe wasn't perfect, but when I was at the Today Newspapers group years and years ago, I considered the then mayor of Lancaster a personal friend. He did a lot of good for the city in many ways. I didn't know all the places he lived, let alone that his great-great-grandfather fought at San Jacinto. An interesting story.

It does leave me nostalgic about my time in Lancaster. The city park, with new library and main fire station, was arguably the best use of the land on North Dallas, even if the fire station part of it, especially, didn't quite fit the bill of original plans for the site.

The Dallas Inland Port and related things? Yes, it was in many ways the best use of much of Lancaster's land — at least, best use in terms of the current operations of the American economy.

I don't know how long he remained in the corner of the (in)famous Larry D. Lewis as Lancaster ISD superintendent after I left. However long he did, it was too long. That would be the one real blot on his escutcheon, to use the old phrase.

==

Flip side? Even if a bit naive at times, like over the Ten Mile Creek flood, he had the city's best interest in other ways. That includes the school district under Lewis' predecessor, the widely perceived as racist Bill Ward, per this old Dallas Observer piece. (I recall the incident, the school board meeting, and the difficulty in getting anything close to a straight answer out of Ward.) Sadly, when doing teh Google earlier today, I came across a "Memories of Lancaster, Texas" Facebook group, where someone had posted his obit. One White commenter went racist by saying he turned Lancaster into a ghetto. While not saying said commenter is AS racist as white folks whose actions are noted in the Observer piece, she IS racist by what I see from that comment alone. And ignorant. (Said person, per her profile, now lives in Kaufman County. Sounds about right.)

Why real estate is even worse than claimed, especially in Big D

Many repoed houses that are resold? The official sale price ain't anywhere near being true. Oh, and shock me that this type of sales lying may have its ground zero in Dallas.

That's why Gov. Helmethair's claims about the strength of the Texas economy are bullshit. Unemployment is still going up in most major metropolitan areas, the heavy local reliance on property taxes looks shaky (especially with those fake resale Z prices, eh?)

And, I totally agree that this is part of the issue, too:

Compounding the problem is the seemingly endless prairie that stretches in every direction. Residential real estate in Dallas is all about what’s new, fresh, clean and contemporary, and beyond last year’s farthest-flung suburban outpost there is always more prairie, another slice of raw land on which to build this year’s model of the luxe domestic dream.

And, no, per the quote at the end of the story, nothing will change. Cheap gas prices will lead to more sprawl, not just suburban but exurban sprawl, while inner-ring suburbs on the north and east of Dallas, not just the south, will age ever less gracefully and ever more quickly.

I lived in suburban Dallas just about all of the last decade. Trust me on this one. I told residents of a Dallas suburb, back in late 2006, to vote against a new school bond issue in part because default and foreclosure numbers were already rising.

So, state Sen. Steve Ogden's plan to push more of school funding on a statewide property tax may not work so well, either. Especially if it caps appraisal rises not at 10 percent, but at even less than that.

Lancaster, Texas, takes another economic blow

The Allen Group, the company that was going to develop a 6,000-acre set of warehousing facilities, to build on the two main rail lines and three interstates in the area, has just filed Chapter 11.

This was a case of overbuild anyway.

You have that ProLogis place already fairly built, plus the one on Hampton Road just north of DeSoto. And another one in development on the DeSoto side of I-35/Danieldale. AND, Alliance in Fort Worth, the already-existing warehousing and transportation hub, is only 40 percent built out.

Even without any of the John Wiley Price hassles The Allen Group had, it was a gamble.

Beyond that, I said that if oil stayed at $150/bbl, we wouldn't be importing so much stuff from China anyway.

And, beyond THAT, in an irony, or worse, Richard Allen says that a major potential future investor is ... China Supply and Logistics. Hell, what next — a Chinese company buying a share in Berkshire Hathaway, now that Buffett has purchased BNSF?

Further fallout? Between this and the general economy, Lancaster's airport expansion just got pushed back years.

Charity goes beyond charity to freebie giveaway?

I don’t begrudge ABC’s “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” building people like handicapped Dallas police officer Carlton Marshall new homes.

BUT – the size? A 4,000 square foot home is, in my opinion, well beyond charity and in the neighborhood of giveaway. A 2,000-2,500 square foot model would be more than adequate, with the rest of the money going to a homeless shelter or something.

Now, the show warns people about higher tax bills and other problems associated with a home that size. Or monster-sized utility bills.

Nor the environmental wastefulness of building a home that size. And, a bling-like home won’t change what happened to Marshall nearly two years ago.

Obama to let former Big Oil lobbyist run EPA region?

Having moved to Lancaster, suburban Dallas, not too long after the brouhaha over Hall’s Waste Management work, also mentioned in the story, I agree that he’s a poor choice for Environmental Protection Agency Region 6 administrator.

I don’t know if he has an inside track over Al Armendariz (a better choice), or anybody else, or not, but I don’t want him.

Is Lancaster mayor in Perot family pocket?

It’s hard to find another explanation, unless it involves John Wiley Price

Lancaster, Texas Mayor Marcus Knight appears to continue to be fighting his city’s best interest by stubbornly supporting (along with John Wiley Price) the alleged “need” for Lancaster to join Dallas County and the North Central Texas Council of Governments in an 18-month master plan study for the Dallas Logistics Hub site, which covers Dallas, Lancaster, Wilmer, Hutchins and unincorporated Dallas County.

The 6,000-acre development, proposed by The Allen Group, a major developer of intermodal transportation sites, and partially falling in a proposed federal free trade zone/inland port area, would bring thousands of jobs and millions of tax dollars to the area.

That is, if an 18-month “study,” which appears to be heavily pushed by Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert on behalf of his Perot family buddies.

So, why is Knight so in favor of the study, to the degree that, after a Dec. 8 Lancaster City Council public hearing on the matter got about two dozen comments against the proposed study, and none in favor, is keeping the public hearing “open” until a later date, presumably to get somebody, if anybody, to talk about how good the study is?

I even Googled the name of Knight’s company, “ARC Waste Hauling” + “Perot” and got no hits, thinking there has to be a connection somewhere.

Per the Observer story, we KNOW why JWP is apparently in the Perot’s back pocket. The old political phrases about “it’s all about the money” and “follow the money trail” probably could have a picture of JWP next to them for illustrative purposes.

We know that, in other cases, such as a bridge in Hutchins related to Union Pacific’s intermodal hub, JWP doesn’t like it if other political leaders won’t play ball with him, whether it’s hiring the right subcontractors, stroking him the right way or whatever.

Maybe that’s it with Knight. John Wiley Price has co-opted him in some way and gotten him to play ball, where Hutchins Mayor Artis Johnson never would.

Rather than fling around well-poisoning “carpetbagger” epithets, JWP needs to give a more convincing explanation of why he’s shooting his own constituents in the foot.

And, to avoid further speculation about his motives, Marcus Knight probably needs to do the same.

Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert on Perot dime? What about Royce West and JWP?

Over at the Dallas Observer, Jim Schutze has the goods to expose has Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert is essentially the Perot family’s whipping boy and stalking horse to do about anything he can to stall, delay or damage the prospects of the Dallas Logistics Hub, the centerpiec of trying to get a federal government-sanctioned “inland port,” with trade advantages, established in southeast Dallas, Lancaster, Wilmer and Hutchins.

That includes Leppert’s latest idea, a “master plan” covering the entire area and cutting across government boundaries.

But, why now, Tom? Because your other efforts on behalf of the Perots (who own Alliance Airport and control all the logistics ventures facilities there), have failed? The Logistics Hub has been in the air for a few years by now. You could have proposed a master plan three or more years ago. Instead, Perot tools went to the Lege instead, and lost.

Where then does long-time Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price come in?

Well, his past head-butting with Hutchins Mayor Artis Johnson over bridge-building money says that with JWP, it can at times, many times, be about access, friends and money. An off-the-cuff guess would be that the Perots might be throwing some friends of his some construction work bones. Just a guess. If that's not the correct guess, let's just say that JWP isn't all hot about a master plan because he's got a sudden worry about uncontrolled development.

Besides, like Leppart, where was he four years ago? Butting heads with Artis Johnson, but not talking about a master plan for the logistics hub, that's where.

And what about state Sen. Royce West, who is now also reportedly pushing harder for a master plan for the Dallas inland port area? If he were involved …

Well, we know that Royce’s baby is UNT-Dallas. Maybe a Perot-endowed chair of business management? Hmm, just a guess. Or, maybe he's looking at a run for higher office in two years. But…

Marcus Knight? The Lancaster mayor may just have some sincere concerns. Or, he may be under JWP’s spell, wing or tutelage. Or, maybe his family’s business gets some Perot bones. A Google search on his name + Perot didn't turn up any links, but you never know what can fly beneath the radar.

Is the Allen Group reading this in Lancaster?

I said this already 2-3 years ago, and despite a scoffing idiot or two in the Dallas suburb, soaring oil prices, likely driven by Peak Oil, are crimping the globalization of trade. That, in turn, has to affect the viability, nay, even the necessity of mega-distribution/warehousing centers, like one proposed for a 10-square-mile chunk of land in Lancaster, Dallas, Wilmer and Hutchins.

“If we think about the Wal-Mart model, it is incredibly fuel-intensive at every stage, and at every one of those stages we are now seeing an inflation of the costs for boats, trucks, cars,” said Naomi Klein, the author of “The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism.”

“That is necessarily leading to a rethinking of this emissions-intensive model, whether the increased interest in growing foods locally, producing locally or shopping locally, and I think that’s great.”

This is already starting to play out. Some American countries that had factories in Mexico, but moved to China after the WTO agreements, are bringing work back to Mexico. It’s still not in the U.S., but it’s easier to ship point-to-point when you’re already on the same landmass, rather than constricted to just a few ports.

That, then, lessens the need for such warehouses as the Allen Group.

And, because this is shipping by land, there’s no business for an “inland port” designation, to boot.

Why the move back to Mexico, in numbers? The Times story notes that the cost of shipping a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the United States has risen to $8,000, compared with $3,000 early in the decade. In response, container ships have cut their top speed by nearly 20 percent to save on fuel costs. That, of course, adds significantly to shipping times, which may be of importance in some industries.

Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets says it’s like a 9 percent surcharge or tariff.

Plus, if a “Kyoto II” greenhouse gas treaty includes India and China (and, in essence, stops U.S. companies from exporting pollution), manufacturing costs there will rise even more.

Winners/losers? American wood is staying home for furniture production. U.S. steel production is up.

Winners and losers could include globalization of food. No more cheap Chilean grapes and cherries in winter here, for example.

And, the U.S. might be an overall loser. Too many industries have shuttered too long here; starting them back up in Mexico, even, after more than a decade in many cases, would be difficult.

Booze is coming to Hutchins -- and Wilmer!

Voters in the small southern Dallas County suburb appear to have approved an initiative for package sales of beer, wine, and alcohol..

With all five precincts reporting to Dallas County Elections, the measure was up 58-42 percent. If that holds up, Hutchins would be the only place in the county south of the Trinity River to sell spirits as well as beer and wine.

Meanwhile, an identical proposition passed 51-49 in neighboring Wilmer, with one of two precincts reporting.

Well, Lancaster folks, throw in the towel once and for all. Even without beer-store funded opposition from Clyde Hairston and the Gonzales brothers, you'll never get anything passed now.

Will the Lancaster mayoral truth-teller please stand up?

And avoid the hypocrisy alert?

Morris Mosley claims three different addresses, including giving Duncanville police what may be a false address, as well as the city of Lancaster a possibly false address when he submitted his mayoral candidacy application

Clyde Hairston, meanwhile, claims to have no idea that a $4,800 donation to his anti-alcohol political action committee came from the owner of Cut Rate Beer and Wine.

Unfortunatately, unless smart residents of Lancaster turn out in droves to vote for Marcus Knight, one of these two people will be Lancaster’s next mayor.

Oh, I forgot to mention.

Both Mosley and Hairston are ministers.

American business will crumble with $200 a barrel oil

Just what will America look like if some of the most bearish predictions about oil prices come true? Charley Blaine has some scary thoughts in a must-read, and I’ll add a few of mine in parentheses.

(First, Blaine notes that über-bearish Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun Murti was also right on predicting $105/bbl oil back in 2005.)

Anyway, time to “document the atrocities,” as Atrios says on his blog.

First, if $1/bbl increase equals a nickel a gallon at the gas pump, $150 oil is $5 gas and $200 oil is $7.50 gas. While Europe adjusted to that with high gas taxes after the 1979-80 Iranian oil embargo, such rapid change here would be shock therapy.

• One, the Big Three might fold up. (I have five bucks that says Chrysler does that by the end of the decade. Dunno about Ford and General Misfits. Oh, and unlike 1980, our gummint doesn’t have money to bail out Chrysler, let alone Ford or GM.)

• Two, the “legacy” airlines might try to merge even smaller, if regulators allowed it, or just fold. (Ditto on lack of bailout money. And, I live in the home of one of those “legacy” airlines, American.)

• Three, convention cities are going to be in trouble. It ain’t going to be cheap to convention in Vegas with $500 coach tickets at the cheapest. (That’s Dallas, again.)

• Four, historic/arts type tourist destinations are in lots of trouble.

Beyond that, here’s additional thoughts of mine:

• Logistics hubs for intermodal shipping, like the Dallas Logistics Hub in southern Dallas and neighboring Lancaster, are going to be losing propositions. $200/barrel oil is going to mean a lot less made-in-China stuff. Yes, much of that, if it comes back across the Pacific, will be Mexico-built, not American. Nonetheless, much of it will be shipped via conventional semis, not on intermodal rail. And, a fair amount that is shipped intermodally will probably go to smaller sites. The big intermodal hubs will be like hub-and-spoke legacy airlines.

• American businesses, anti-union issues be damned, are going to come under more pressure from management as well as rank-and-file to stop relocating to sprawled-out Sunbelt cities.

• Lets not forget food prices. Higher diesel for the combines, and grain transportation trucks, down on the farm. Higher diesel costs to ship refined foods, and truck-farmed items, to the grocery. If natural gas starts pressuring upward, higher fertilizer and herbicide/pesticide costs. Maybe 15 percent or more higher than now.

• Just as an increase in gas taxes will become even more necessary for decaying infrastructure, the will to impose it will shrink even more.

• Unemployment will surge above 8 percent in modern faked (per Kevin Phillips) record-keeping, and reach a real rate of at least 12 percent. And, we would be tempted to call that something worse than a recession.

• And, my last thought – GOP wingers will say we need another tax cut because of this.

Alcohol may come to Wilmer-Hutchins

Interestingly, the story made no reference to Lancaster’s Mark or Aaron Gonzales.

Either Wilmer-Hutchins, unlike Anna and Rockwall, are off their non-Lancaster map, or they’re saving their efforts for a last-minute anti-alcohol blitz.

That said, if it does pass there, well, Lancaster will never get beer and wine package sales, and the modest boost in sales taxes.

Dallas beer store owner paid for Lancaster beer opposition?

Did two Lancaster anti-alcohol ministers get nearly $5,000 from the owner of
Dallas' Cut Rate Beer and Wine to oppose beer and wine package sale
referendums in Lancaster?

Looks like it could be that way.

I'm not saying the two are brothers, either, but Lancaster people who are
smart wouldn't be surprised that the two have the same last name.

They also would not be surprised that the two are connected to a third
minister, who just happens to be running for mayor of Lancaster.

(And no, not Morris Mosley.)

That money would explain how the two ministers with the same last name could
afford to send out full four-color mailers opposing the referendums in 2006
and earlier.

South suburban Dallas elections heat up

In Duncanville, which despite claims to the contrary, local elections approach “partisan” status, some candidate surrogates, when they can’t have every printed word go their own way, don’t have a problem media venue shopping, or even, possibly, helping a willing, if possibly naïve, third party, get help setting up an online “media” venue. Not that I’m mentioning any names, like Steve Madison, rather than just speculating into open air.

(Oh, and governments DO “attempt/try” eminent domain, Mr. Madison, because they don’t always succeed. Eminent domain attempts get defeated in court. They get withdrawn by governments as part of settlement processes, as you well know. They get withdrawn because a local government knows it will lose the case in court. Fortunately, Texas law specifies “constitutional manner” for eminent domain.)

As for “evil giants,” IIRC, the city of Duncanville made a lowball offer to the Hodge family, recognized “constitutional manner” wouldn’t fly and backed off.

Plus, there’s the whole controversy over whether Duncanville ramping up its “going Green” drive at just this time has any connection to the re-election bid of David Green. I would say “little,” but, I’m not dumb enough to say “none.” That said, I supposed people can drive Fords when City Councilman Paul Ford runs for re-election.

And, speaking of the mayoral race and partisanship, I’m disappointed “Rose” Renfroe is challenging David Green. Where’s the “Rosita” Renfroe who wanted to challenge Dallas County Commissioner Ken Mayfield two years ago?

I guess Duncanville doesn’t have enough Hispanic voters for “Rosita” to show up. For all I know and some of what I’ve read, Renfroe may actually be a Republican in drag on some of her stances. And, as I’ve said before, Dallas County Democrats have got to still be kicking themselves for not finding a real candidate to run against Mayfield in 2006, given he was about the only county-level Republican to get re-elected in the 2006 Tuesday Night Massacre.

In Lancaster, which I follow less these days, but where I could write a small book about some candidates, I’m sure Morris Mosley is doing plenty of agitating in the mayoral race. That said, it’s interesting that supporters of either Clyde Hairston or Marcus Knight haven’t found any new criminal activity by Mosley.

Speaking of activity that governments frown on, I wonder if any churches have campaign signs up on church property, which the IRS definitely frowns on.

I also wonder how much Larry Lewis is relishing the idea of Joe Kana on the school board. A better-informed, and more level-headed, critic of many of Lewis’ ideas than Carolyn Morris on the Lancaster ISD school board would definitely tip board dynamics.

Could this be the year to end the Lancaster state track streak?

The Lancaster (Texas) high school girls track team has won seven straight state titles. Having been editor of the community newspaper there for most of that streak, I would never sell the team and coach Beverly Humphrey and her teams short.

That said …

Fort Worth Dunbar has better times this year in both the 4x100 and 4x200 relays. And, in Texas high school track, due to double point values, relay performances is where you win team titles.

On individual sprints, Dunbar runners rank higher than Lancaster on 100 and 200 times, too.

Anyway, good luck, Bev; I think you’re going to need some luck this year. I also see that one runner transferred to another school this year. Is that a first?

Motel 6 will accept anybody now as a franchisee

I guess Motel 6 standards have fallen pretty far, or they’re pretty desperate, if one of Lancaster’s I-35 motels is now a Motel 6. Well, Royal Inn isn’t Spanish Trails, I suppose.

Per a questioner in comments, Royal Inn has a certain amount of extended stay traffic not of the executives on business level, probabl a few stays on the one-hour level, a post history of deliquency in remitting hotel-motel tax collections to the city of Lancaster, Texas and so forth.

That said, at least it has not had multiple meth arrests made there in the past, unlike Spanish Trails.

I think Steve Martin has enough to worry about in Duncanville

Without trying to inform Lancaster residents as to which of the three mayoral candidates would be best for bringing “sweeping change” to that city.

(And, he’s wrong on Morris Mosley.)

Sayonara, Medical Center at Lancaster

The closing of the Dallas suburb’s hospital, more than 20 years after it opened, and just two years after corporate ownership of the for-profit facility, in conjunction with Lancaster civic leaders, talked about forming a medical development district around the hospital, is a body blow indeed.

As for redevelopment, a hospital building isn’t readily used for a lot of other things. Besides, you’ve got a half-vacant plaza, a fully-vacant plaza (except for a storefront church) and a vacant grocery store, all rattling around in the city.

Leaders are pinning their hopes to two things: Development at Houston School Road/I-20 related to the growth of the University of North Texas-Dallas, located just across the Dallas city limits, and the Dallas Logistics Hub, in Lancaster, Dallas, Wilmer and Hutchins, estimated to value $5.4 billion at 30-year buildout.

But, hopes for both of those, even if they come to fruition, will be many years in the making.

And, there’s that IF.

First, UNT-D spinoffs.

Will enrollment grow as fast as its top backer, state Sen. Royce West, predicts? Probably not, and definitely not unless Royce can get 15 fellow senators and the majority of the state House to re-regulate tuition rates at state universities. Otherwise, who’s going to afford UNT-D in another decade?

The Logistics Hub? With oil prices now having made a beachhold at $100/bbl and more likely to head further north than south, such transportation centers may be white elephants.

More and more American-incorporated manufacturers will find diminishing profit margins from made in China items, especially items with subassembly here and final assembly there. Also, just in time delivery is going to get m ore overhead.

Result? Less need for massive warehouses covering 6,000 acres. That’s not to mention the possible glut we are already developing, from Fort Worth’s Alliance being only 40 percent filled, to three Dallas Logistics Hub-type products (albeit on much smaller scales) being built in the same area, two in Dallas just north of DeSoto and one other one in Lancaster.

So, Lancaster civic leaders, hold on to hope, but don’t have a runaway elopement with it.

The default beat goes on in Lancaster, elsewhere in southern Dallas County

Of the 1,600 foreclosed homes in Dallas County, many are in the southern sector. In Lancaster, for example, foreclosures are up 116 percent over the last three years.

Here’s how bad it is across all of metro Dallas:

Cedar Hill, DeSoto, Duncanville, Garland, Irving, Lancaster and Mesquite had more than 560 foreclosures among them for August of 2004. While that was bad, the Foreclosure Listing Service now says the numbers are much worse. This August, there were 862 foreclosure postings in the same cities. That's an increase of 65 percent.

It’s bad in a lot of the Metroplex, but Lancaster looks like it’s the worst.

And, former city manager Jim Landon scoffed at me 10 months ago when I said this was coming. And so did the Lancaster ISD head cheese, Larry Lewis. Well, Jim is gone (did he actually recognize this coming himself?) And Crazy Uncle Larry is flying from one idea to the next before the TEA comes to town.

The UNT-Dallas enrollment saga: “Already” at 640 or “just” 640?

I guess the full-time equivalent enrollment at UNT-Royce WestDallas all depends on how you look at it.

The way I look at it, the enrollment growth rate is tapering off and it won’t cross the state-set 1,000-student FTE bar to officially open as a four-year university in its own right until after 2010, if not approaching 2015.

And, that Lancaster development on Houston School Road that’s predicated on this? If there’s just, say, 1,200 students at UNT-Royce in 2015, there ain’t gonna be a whole bunch of higher-end development, whether retail and hotel, or the proposed tech/research stuff on the north side of I-20.

Can you say white elephant?