Perry lies like cheap rug; state GOP follows

At the opening of the Texas Legislature today, talking about a projected $27 billion budget shortfall, Gov. Tricky Ricky Perry had this to say:

"We all heard the message Texans sent on election day," Perry said. "They expect us to balance the budget without taking more money from the employers of this state, taking more money from the working families. They want state government leaner, more efficient."

Wrong!

Voters here heard no such message.

Why didn't they?

Comptroller Susan Combs wouldn't release detailed budget numbers until after election day last November. So, they had no idea how out of balance the budget might be.

That said, expect Texas, like California, to evade a truly balanced budget by using all sorts of gimmickry of various kinds.

Especially since some Republicans outside of the Lege, but notable, are practicing deep denialism:

Talmadge Heflin, a Republican former House Appropriations Committee chair now with the limited-government Texas Public Policy Foundation, dismissed the $27 billion figure. He put the shortfall at $12 billion to $16 billion.

Yep, you're one of the GOP goobers who got the state to this point in the first place.

And how can you do anything BUT write a smoke-and-mirrors budget when Tricky Ricky says:
"We will prioritize what's important in this state. We will fund those. And we will craft a budget that meets those revenue projections and not raise taxes nor get into the rainy day fund," Perry said. "And that's been a consistent message for at least a year and a half."
That said, this is the same GOP that has repeatedly raised the price of various "fees" in the last decade.

So, what might you see coming out of this Legislature?
1. A 25-50 percent increase in vehicle registration costs.
2. A 10-15 percent hike in hunting and fishing licenses. (The Rethugs can't go higher than that without rebellion.)
3. A 25-50 percent hike in driver's license costs.
4. The same amount of hike in state park fees, with declining attendance then used as an excuse to cut back on operations.

That's just off the top of my head.

What the midterm elections mean for redistricting

2010 stands out from 1994 for the Republicans, or 2006/2008 for the Democrats, for a big reason. Decadal redistricting, for Congressional seats above all, but also seats in state legislatures, will be conducted by new state legislatures, with veto, or directional power, by governors, in states that don't have special redistricting commissions.

And, it really looks bad for Democrats here.

Here's a scary thought - the GOP holds the most state legislative seats since 1928.

The GOP also won at least seven Governorships on Tuesday, which means that Republicans will now control the entire government in 17 states. ... After the 1990 Census, the GOP had political control of states with a mere five seats in the House of Representatives. This time the GOP will control the process for some 195 seats, or nearly half the House. Democrats have used gerrymandering to preserve their dominance in states like California and Massachusetts—the latter still has no GOP House Members in 10 seats. But Republicans will serve their revenge Tom DeLay-style in other states.

But, the Journal does note the flip side:

This gives Republicans a tremendous opening—and obligation—to show they can tackle the fiscal, tax and pension problems that the departing politicians of both parties have failed to address.

So, if you're a Democratic state legislator, you know who to blame - Preznit Kumbaya.

Again, not for being too liberal, but for not knowing (or caring???) how to sell a fucking message.

More and more, I think his "eloquence" perception is in part due to ... the soft bigotry of low expectations from Volvo-driving, latte-sipping economic neoliberals who heard a black man from the North speaking standard American English.

The non-audacity of cluelessness

If Obama thinks truly more liberal opiners like Krugman are going to stop laying the wood on him because of the crushing Democratic midterm losses, or because Preznit Kumbaya keeps adding new verses to the song, he'd be wrong. Krugman's still laying on the wood.

Texas Greens guarantee 2012 ballot access

Yahhhh! Texas Greens got more than 5 percent of the vote for
Edward Lindsey's performance in the Texas State Comptroller race. Automatic ballot access in 2012!

When Texas Hispanic Dems in the Valley lose ...

It's really, really a bad night for Democrats.

And, lose they did, at least, for national offices.

Two long-term Democratic Congressmen, Ciro Rodriguez and Solomon Ortiz, both went down.

With Rodriguez, his loss was due in part to how much of his district is in metropolitan San Antonio. His numbers in rural southwest Texas just couldn't offset that.

With Ortiz, I'm not sure what apparently tripped him up in particular.

In general? The economy, which is bad down in the lower Valley, compared not only to much of the rest of Texas, but much of the country, and Obama, of course. Also, his district is white majority, with permanent retirees plus voting-eligible snowbirds making it somewhat tea party friendly.

But, Ortiz had held his seat since 1983. This is a biggie.

That said, this race may get a recount before all is said and done, or Ortiz may pick it up now.

Would Ben Nelson switch parties?

And, along with that, would Lieberman switch caucuses? In his latest post at 538, Nate Silver gives the GOP about 50-50 odds of getting its Senator count up to 49, and suggests that, should that be the case, its charm offense on those two senators will start soon.

Let's take Nate one farther. What are the odds of those two events happening?

First, on Nelson. I think he might be as much as 60-40 in favor of it, UNLESS he's not going to run for re-election himself, in which case he might punt that down the road. Lieberman? Given how much a weather vane he can be, I'd put the odds anywhere from as low as 20 percent to as high as 80 percent. That said, with him on abortion, especially, will tea partier types fight back against this idea?

And, if Nelson is convertable, is there any other senator other than Lieberman that could be persuaded to switch? I really can't think of one.

So, if the scenario played out this way, would the GOP approach both at the same time? Nelson first? Lieberman first?

Obama "has failed the authenticity test"

That's no teabagger saying that. It's from the NYT op-eds page.

And, no, it's not Brooks or Douthat.

It's a straightforward, insightful, garden-variety liberal, Ed Cohen, who thusly opines.

He makes that comment in comparison to the newly-elected David Cameron in the UK as well as the just-departing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, in noting both those leaders also have/had a "narrative" that Obama doesn't.

And, it's not just on domestic policy, Cohen says:
Obama is confronting an international conviction that he’s hesitant. The agonizing review that led to the Afghan surge left an impression of uncertainty. In the end we got what some have called the Groucho Marx Hello, I Must be Going! plan, a brief reinforcement to be reversed in time for the 2012 campaign.
So, whenever I get frustrated at the MSM, I sometimes get some hope restored with a column like this. It's a good insight.

Is 'framing' part of the midterm elections battle?

Incumbent Members of Congress are most endangered, it seems, in areas not so bad off.

Maybe, as the story notes, many of the worst-hit areas are high-minority urban districts that aren't switching parties anyway.

Or, the election is in part about perceptions. Of course, if that's the case, I expect mainstream liberal pundits to trot out George Lakoff any minute now to talk about "framing."

One good reason to vote Democratic in Minnesota

At least in state-level elections, that is. If the Democrats control the state legislature and the governorship and, as expected, Minnesota loses a Congressional seat, Dems can undistrict Michelle Bachmann's Congressional district.

Should Obama "let" the GOP win the House?

Well, in terms of political chess, at first glance, I think this advice is about the stupidest thing he could listen to. At second glance, I note that Obama put himself in this position.

At third glance, I note that if he were to go back to being Preznit Kumbaya, rather than acting the way he has the last two weeks, it would be disastrous for his reelection and for We the People to boot. And, since I can't trust that his recent change will "stick," I don't know.

At fourth glance, I recognize having a Democratic House post-November, AND having a continued sluggish recovery, if it has one other problem added to it (a self-inflicted problem like Obama's debt commission certainly counts) then we get whatever nutbar the GOP nominates in two years as our next president.

At fifth glance, I think the Democratic Party would only move even further to the right at that point, and too many Democratic voters would keep enabling it.

So, at sixth glance, I think instead, Obama should have a heart attack so Joe Biden can become president and win the sympathy vote election in 2012.

Sharron Angle or Stephen Moore - who is nuttier?

After reading Moore's puff piece "interviewtorial" (help me out if you have a better word) with Angle, it's a semi-open question.

I know, Moore is pushing the WSJ op-ed party line. But, how much of the puffery does he actually believe?

Beyond the puffery is the, not ignorance, but outright refusal to ask obvious questions.

Now that polls show Reid has a lead over Angle of 7 points and likely climbing, how can you not ask a question of her about her dropping-like-a-rock poll numbers? Sure, Moore mentions it, but no questions asked about it.

Of course, there's also some of the physical descriptors never mentioned about men

She is petite, has Irish red hair with and a pretty round face.

And, we have her trying to latch on to Palin's beartails, too:

"I was just a mother, and the government had gotten between me and my child, and that's like getting between a mother bear and her cubs," she says.

Unintentional humor from the unreality community.

Texas, Tricky Ricky Perry face huge budget holes

First, a deficit as high as $15 billion by 2011 can't be cured by 5 percent budget cuts. Neither, unless a lot of Texas voters are even dumber, or more hypnotized by Gov. Helmethair than I think, can the gap be filled by "fees."

So, Tricky Ricky, and Speaker Joe Straus, having to pick up after former Speaker Kid Craddick, that means either budget slashes or new taxes.

Meanwhile, showing both the stupidity and dangerousness of an every other year Legislature, the state has a shortfall of nearly $2 million in the current budget.

As for the next budget, John O'Brien, the Legislative Budget Board's director, who oversees a large staff serving 10 key lawmakers who track fiscal matters, said the shortfall will be at least $11 billion and could be as high as $15 billion.

"We have a deficit that's larger than the rainy day fund," he said, speaking of an emergency fund that he said will have slightly more than $8 billion by next session.

And, we're just six months into the current two-year budget cycle.

Will Tricky Ricky be forced to call a special session before November?

Why Kay Bailey Hutchson lost - and her future

Kay Bailey Hutchison folded like a house of cards, unable to even send Rick Perry to a runoff in a three-way race with a tea partier challenging Tricky Ricky on the right. How weak is that?

Very weak, from where I stand. BUT ... not unexpected.

She ran about the lamest major-level state office campaign I've seen in my journalist history. It was clear, a month after her entering the race, why she ducked out of a challenge to Perry four years ago. She simply wasn't ready to, at first, and then refused to mentally get ready to, trade gut-level punches, or below.

When your most memorable TV commercials involve TxDOT electronic traffic billboards, you have a media campaign staff that should be fired. Other weak-tea commercials? The ones that had the pull quotes from newspaper editorial endorsements come immediately to mind.

Wayne Slater of the Dallas Morning News offers his take, summed up in a one-liner:

She had a dozen messages and no message.

That said, you can have multiple messages, if they're ultimately submessages of, if more than one, no more than three main messages. AND, if you're ready to play political hardball in selling them.

If you wanted more moderate GOP voters to be more enthusiastic, you should have targeted younger, suburban voters. Targeted them better. And, gotten more troops involved with GOTV efforts.

That said, I don't totally blame campaign manager Terry Sullivan. He worked with the material he had. But, so much for his reputation as a "hardball strategist," eh?

Now, do Debra Medina supporters vote for Tricky Ricky in November, or stay home? It depends in part on whether he decides to tack to the center or stay far right. That, in turn, depends in part on whether or not Bill White can gin up a legitimate "Republicans for Bill" organization.

And, yes, that's possible. Some of Kay's financial big guns actually, per the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, seem to kind of welcome it:

"I can assure you that I will not be a financial supporter of Rick Perry, and I can assure you that most of the people I talk to are not going to support him either," said Fort Worth oilman Dick Moncrief, Hutchison's financial chairman in North Texas, predicting that Republicans who are "fed up with Perry" may wind up supporting White if Hutchison fails to get the nomination.

Stay tuned. And, I hope Bill White can pull this off.

Kay's Senate seat
Now, what's in Kay's future?

Now that she stands exposed, will she get a primary challenger for her Senate seat two years from now? I'd give you 50-50 on that. No, it won't be a Debra Medina-level nutbar, just a Rick Perry-level one.

Now, will she stay, or go through with the "pledge" of leaving early?

Burnt Orange Report offers four options:

She resigns respectfully, campaigns for the Republican, and walks off the stage with little fanfare and no big applause. Her legacy then is the same as it is today.
She stays in the Senate, finds a bipartisan cause to champion, and passes an historic piece of legislation. Strong legacy, especially if Perry loses to White in the fall -- which would amount to a vindication for Hutchison's campaign.
She endorses Rick Perry. The weakest of her options, because it makes her less than Perry.
She endorses Bill White. The most unlikely of options, but the one with the highest reward.

I offer option five: She stays in the Senate, licks her wounds, does little, and stays in Washington after January 2013.

Let's look further at why all four of Burnt Orange's options are wrong.

No. 1? Too painful for even "Miss Good GOPer," I think. Plus, if Tricky Ricky plays to the base and tacks right in the general election, he might not want her.

No. 2? Nope. First, of course, no big bipartisan issue is getting past the rest of this Congress. And, depending on how many Senate seats the Dems lose in November, and who fills them from the GOP, the next Congress is likely to be even less bipartisan. Doorknob bless Burnt Orange Report, but their "options" are kind of clueless on this one.

I presume, though it's not clear, that Options 3 and 4 also presume she resigns. I don't think it's likely, as said. But, if she does, 3 is more likely than Option 1. Option 4 ain't likely.

Per the StartleGram link above, it's clear Options 1 and 3 ain't what her financial backers want, either.

Meanwhile, CQ Politics looks further at how her different possible decisions play out for others.

Perry panders to Medina voters with EPA attack

So, Texas is now officially the first state to, in essence, try state nullification of federal laws by legal entanglement with its challenge of the EPA's greenhouse gases endangerment finding from last year.

It's by no means the last, as Virginia has immediately followed suit.

Her in the Lone Star Numb Nuts GOP state, Gov. Perry is clearly pandering to Debra Medina backers on the nullification issue, as she has staked out a firm ground on this issue.

Second, Virginia jumping in shows that, as with the public healthcare issue of a month, that this is a coordinated offensive. It's getting energy from the recent minor to minor-moderate errors by the IPCC and the Daily Mail's (UK) hack job on the East Anglia climate center's director.

Texas governor's ad watch, Feb. 5

The Rick Perry ads, claiming how much he's cut taxes? Conveniently overlooked the expansion of the business franchise to fund lessening local school district property taxes. Overlooked how much state "fees" have grown in the last decade. Slamming Hutchison on earmarks? Overlooks any credit Perry may claim for them.

Hutchison's Nolan Ryan ad? Great feel-good ad. But, if she's trailing by very much, doesn't she need to "go negative" and soon?

On the Dem side, Bill White's first TV ad that I've seen is clearly aimed at the general election. Rightly so; Shami's not going break single digits, probably.

Kay Bailey — I hate TTC, but I love toll roads!

That's why Kay Bailey Hutchison is soooo glad to take campaign money from The Zachry Group, and deny it to Tricky Ricky Perry.

While the Trans-Texas Corridor is the biggest problem, the push for toll roads in general is a big enough problem in Texas.

It's part of the GOP's ongoing process in this state of taxing people more and more all while hiding the taxes by calling them "service fees" and similar things. Toll roads in particular are also a mark of the disorganized fashion in which state government is run in Texas. If the Texas Department of Transportation were ever authorized for real multi-year budgeting, we wouldn't have any need for toll roads.

Well, that is, if the Lege would apply ALL of the gas tax to transportation.

KBH is a kinder, gentler, dishonest than Tricky Ricky.

Oh, and her anti-TTC ads? Beyond being deceitful, they're lame-o.

Your Texas Green Party candidates

Remember, we have more than two political parties!

Bart Boyce Governor
Deb Shafto Governor
Herb Gonzales, Jr Lieutenant Governor
Edward Lindsay Comptroller of Public Accounts
Art Browning RR Commissioner
George Reiter US Congressional Representative, District 9
Jim Howe US Congressional Representative, District 11
Ed Scharf US Congressional Representative, District 23
Phil Snyder, PhD State Board of Education, District 4
Paul Cardwell State Board of Education, District 9
J D Porter State Board of Education, District 10
Ryan Seward State Representative, District 94
Joel West State Representative, District 144
Don Cook County Clerk, Harris County
Roger Baker County Clerk, Travis County
Earl Lyons County Clerk, Bexar County
kat swift County Commissioner, Pct 2, Bexar County
Chuck Robinson Justice of the Peace, Precinct 1, Place 1, Bexar County
Joy Vidheecharoen-Glatz Justice of the Peace, Pct 3, Dallas County
Jeffrey Dale Glatz County Surveyor, Dallas County
Esther Choi County Clerk, Dallas County

A swing state swing this fall?

Although Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele doesn't believe the GOP will take over the House, it looks like that could, nonetheless, still be a possibility.

Why? An anti-incumbent mood, perhaps, especially if the economy doesn't show more signs of life soon. Anger over national health care, maybe. Ongoing, and expanding, wars.

Of course, what this all boils down to, Bob Herbert notes, is that promised "change" is not being delivered. That's you, Obama.

Oh, but with the number of House Republicans retiring, maybe they have no more confidence than Steele.

More 2009 elections post-mortem

First, should Democrats worry? Well, besides independents breaking GOP, which quaisi-Democratic bloggers try to write off as “conventional wisdom” or whatever, per Larry Sabato, there’s the matter of horrendous turnout, at least in Virginia. (That said, Sabato partially localizes that.)

The economy per Larry Sabato, and, how will Democrats deal with it next year? Second stimulus? I look at the 1982 midterms and House GOP losses, wondering if Democrats are doing that too. For Blue Dog Dems, it means deficits-vs-unemployment worries; will they be hypocritical enough to blandly worry about the deficit, after many of them approved many Bush-era deficit spending bills, or will they actually explain the need for more unemployment and economic help?

Regardless of his political views in general, Michael Barone may be right that union issues took a hit.

On the lighter side, Gail Collins pokes fun at Republicans trying to nationalize local elections.

Hutchison – I’m more ‘enlightened’ than Perry; and shows it

Well, that kind of goes without saying in my book, but Texas’ senior U.S. Senator and gubernatorial challenger went ahead and said it about Gov. Rick Perry.

Better yet, she did what President Barack Obama lacks the intestinal fortitude, or cojones, or whatever to do — she called him out on secession and nullification talk:

“Silly rhetoric about secession from the Union being an option is not a good image for Texas, in America or in Texas,” she said.

About time someone in a position to be heard said something like that.

That of itself proves her claim.
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