The cautionary tale of Jacob deGrom

Yes, his need for a second arm surgery is also sad, but as I see it, just for him but even more, beyond him, it's cautionary more than sad, whether he needs a full second Tommy John or escapes with "just" a Brock Purdy type surgery.

Taking together several Reddit comments I've made, let's dive in.

First, how do we know the uptick in arm injuries is horrendous or whatever? Related, what's a person's time frame for horrendous uptick? It is last decade? Last 20 years? Last 30? 

Is part of the thinking the old "availability bias"? I mean, in pre-modern, as in, pre-integration times, whether live ball, semi live of the 1910s or fully dead, pitchers had serious arm injuries all the time. Some tried to pitch through it and failed. A few succeeded. More took a year or year-plus off for rest, then came back. A few succeeded halfway well or better, a few succeeded less well, and a few totally failed. A few, whether it worked or not, may have tried Pud Galvin's goat testimacles. A few just retired because, no matter how much they liked baseball, it just didn't pay that much.

And, in all of the above, because it didn't pay that much, contracts weren't guaranteed, and there were plenty of clamoring replacements, owners didn't shell out money trying to fix players. I'm not saying that this is all explained away by availability bias; I am saying that we should think more about things like that, though.

Second? I blame analytics as part of the problem. Pitchers have been taught, in response to the three true outcomes of batting, to increase spin on their pitches as a main tool back. This gets talked about all the time. Baseball beat writers and analysts, especially at the national level, compare different pitchers' spin rates. And, because today's baseball IS all about the Benjamins, pitchers spin, spin, spin. And, the only way you get more spin, assuming everybody's using the same grip for different types of fastballs, etc., is by snapping some part of your arm harder.

One Redditor talked about how today's pitchers can't do like Warren Spahn did, to mention an example. Well, whether a freak of nature, freak of training or bit of both, Nolan Ryan never had major arm problems. Nor did others of the same general era and same general velocity, like Tom Seaver and Bob Gibson. 

Given the plunging batting averages of the last decade or so, maybe it wasn't that pitchers were trying to be like Warren Spahn, or the above trio, but that they were trying to be better. A literal arms race, pun intended. And, kind of like the old USSR vs US on missiles, for many pitchers, it threatened to be MAD indeed — mutually assured destruction.

With this, all the precautionary habits adopted in recent years not only in Little League but at the high school level, like pitch counts, do no good if the pitching is more violent the higher up the ladder you go, as in minor leagues, college, both then majors. And, yes, violent, to keep with the military metaphor. For that matter, how much do pitch counts in high school, even without the "violence" at higher levels, preserve pitcher arms? (I know coaches hate them, and I recently saw a scoreless tie in a high school playoff game become untied after one of the two starters hit his pitch limit.)

Third? There's probably related factors. Another Redditor mentioned that this motion is not natural. Kind of sort of. Our Mesolithic, even Paleolithic, ancestors were throwing spears. They just weren't trying to "snap them off" like cut fastballs.

So, maybe more pitching coaches need to train more pitchers on more off-speed pitches. I don't know if a Jamie Moyer or Bartolo Colon would make it today, but maybe they would. If you have three different off-speed pitches with different movement, and 10mph different speed between the fastest and slowest, and add a decent fastball that's 5mph faster than the fastest offspeed and has some motion, you can probably get by. I mean, going beyond the above duo, Greg Maddux wasn't that fast. He wasn't slow, but he wasn't THAT fast. He also spotted his pitches well.

Third, part two? To the degree that throwing overhand may be less than fully natural, working on pitching mechanics may help. That can include dropping one's arm slot to three-quarters. Or five-eights. Or sidearm. Or submarine. Dan Quisenberry and Kent Tekulve made careers out of that in the bullpen. Eddie Feigner, the "King" of "The King and His Court," made a career out of it, too. And, back in its dark ages, everybody in MLB pitched underhand.

Larger mechanics? Walter Johnson never had major arm problems despite his speed.  Yes, a different era, but still. If you've seen the old clips of him, he pitched with his butt and his back as much as his arm. And sidearmed.

In short, to the degree the rise in pitchers' arm injuries is real, this issue has multiple causes, of which the above are part but not all, and the solution, or partial solution, will also have multiple angles.

Finally, because it is 2023 and not Walter Johnson's GOAT year of 1913?

There are $$$ to talk about.

If deGrom wants to keep pitching without changing his approach, that's on him.

If the stRangers want to sign him to a five-year contract without discussing that with him, and without working with him with their pitching coaching, that's on them.

If whoever insures the stRangers player contracts want to cut a check to do that without batting an eyelash, that's on them. (Update: Via The Ringer [no paywall], per Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic, the contract is NOT insured.)

If fans want to pay more for game tix, RSN subscription or whatever with all of that? That's on them.

==

Sidebar: Without this injury, would he be a probable HOFer? Despite that Ringer piece gushing over his FIP, etc. I think not. Looking at his stats on BRef, everything since 2018 is "small sample size" on number of innings pitched. Given his nagging injury history after the first TJ, even, it's doubtful he would have hit another 20 WAR for 60.

Coronavirus, week 49: Anniversaries and more

I took a week off here and there on blog posting, while actually, I think, starting before this time, but per Skeptical Raptor's 1-year observation, yep, it was when Rudy Gobert was announced as testing positive, followed by the NBA putting its season on hiatus and etc., that "we" realized this might be serious. Raptor admits underestimating the vaccine effort, and also profiles a year of COVID quackery. Remember hydroxychloroquine?

That said, the Raptor also expects the mutation rate to not slow down. He does hope that it becomes milder, and thus, eventually, like today's flu (which used to be the Spanish flu, dreaded by Monty Python and more seriously by others).

• Capitol and Main has a good 1-year overview as well, including noting social issues.

• President Biden has directed states to make all adults vaccine-eligible by May 1. Texas lowered the eligibility age to 50 this week, but, since it's still near the bottom of the nation in vaccine distribution, being eligible for something you can't get is like having shit in one hand and toilet paper out of reach of the other.

At the same time, Biden, while targeting a return to semi-normalcy by the Fourth of July, warned against something we might call "Neanderthal behavior."

More takeaways here.

• And, the Biden Administration has tasked OSHA into looking at national mask standards, mandating employers work to boost COVID workplace safety, easier reporting of COVID-unsafe work conditions, etc. No names, but, in case actions by Neanderthal governors increase the likelihood of Neanderthal capitalism, this is a "marker." In addition, activists are pushing OSHA to officially adopt new mask standards released by ASTM.

• Austin can keep its local mask mandate in place until Kenny Boy Paxton's suit against it goes to trial.

• Sadly, the Texas stRangers, team once led by later-to-be Guv Shrub Bush, is taking a page from current Guv Strangeabbott and says it may open the home opener at 100 percent capacity. 

• Interestingly, men are more likely to get vaccinated than women. That's one of several takeaways about vaccination. That said, two in five are still "vaccine hesitant." Of course, that ties in with seeing a lot more Karens than Karls on antimasking, to be honest, including a maskless woman with baby/toddler at a Denton Kroger. So much for stereotypes of woman the nurturer, eh?

• Also interesting but not surprising? Atheists and agnostics are more likely to get vaccinated than the religious.

• Counting Puerto Rico as well as DC, but not even smaller outlying territories, Tex-ass is up to 42nd out of 52 jurisdictions in percentage of fully vaccinated residents. With that, we MAY be up to "herd immunity" (at 75 percent) by the time school starts in the fall.

• Some new research say more kids may have it than previously believed, and largely be asymptomatic, thus being unwitting spreaders. (And, per discussion on Facebook, yes, doctors wouldn't know how much they're spreaders if they're asymptomatic, and given that they've not been known to have it that much, and that we're behind the curve on adult contact tracing, there's no way we'd ever get close to getting up to speed on kids' contact tracing.)

 

• Meanwhile, many of these kids are getting an inflammatory syndrome that makes them the child equivalent of long-haulers.

• Could a cure, or at least more relief, for "long haulers" be connected to one for chronic fatigue syndrome?

 

• Here's Josh Rogin's latest on the idea that, without claiming lab engineering, we don't know everything about the novel coronavirus' origin, and it could well have been an accident from bad biosecurity at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Sad trombone times for DFW and Houston pro sports?

ESPN regularly runs a "misery index" about how much suffering fans of different teams have. Dallas and Houston fans in general aren't the Cleveland Browns, but? Cleveland as a city has won a title in one Big Three sport (sit down, hockey) and gone to the big dance in another more recently than anybody from Dallas, and more recently than anybody not banging a trash can in Houston.

Cort McMurray, in his take on the Astros cheating, says that the problem is not just the cheating itself, but from a Houstonian point of view, washing away the goodwill the Astros built up. (Here's my long take.)

So, maybe there's some reverse schadenfreude among Texas pro sports fans? Certainly seemed that way during the NFC and AFC title games, as I noted on Twitter:

So, a bunch of Texas pro football fans, knowing the Dallas Cowboys haven't been to the Super Bowl in 20 years & might not go 4 another 20, and ditto for the Houston Texans, are out of butt hurt jealousy tweeting "Dallas Texans" & "Houston Oilers"?

Got it.

Go fuck yourself. #GFY

— reallyDonaldTrump 🚩🌻 (@AFCC_Esq) January 19, 2020

Yep, that's about right. Yes, I know some, per Brains, are trying to claim this was just a riff on the roots of the two teams in the 1962 AFL title game. Lemme see, December 1962 was FIFTY-SEVEN years ago. About 2 percent of Twitter users are old enough to have been alive, let alone old enough to remember, the original game. It's butt-hurt jealousy tweeting, no matter how much of the actual history you can present, if you didn't actually experience it.

(And, at least Dallas fans weren't tweeting "Dallas Texans" during the Super Bowl, at least not enough to hit trending on Twitter. But they WERE obnoxiously Tweeting after the game, with stupid tenuous pseudo-connections like the Cowboys going to SB V after the Chiefs won SB 4. I said the Las Vegas Raiders with Tom Brady had a better chance next year.)

But, let's look at the butt-hurtedness level of Texas sports fans.

After all, before that, the Stros only got to the World Series once, despite Albert Pujols' best efforts to block even that:



I never get tired of playing that, not just because I'm a Cards and a Phat Albert fan.

But, the crush-crunch-crouch of Brad Lidge, Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte kind o numbed out in the Astros dugout, at the 20 second mark, and the combo of deadpan and WTF on the face of Nolan Ryan at 25 seconds all make it worthwhile.

Before that, of course, the last time the Stros were close to winning it all, not counting the year before in 2004, or even getting close to the point of being able to win it all, was the 1986 when Ryan was No. 2 on the mound to Mike Scott. (Interestingly, 2005 skipper Phil Garner was Scrap Iron playing on the 86 team, too.)

OK, so the Stros have hurt, and the idea that they would lose their one winning team due to a stripped title is a fear indeed.

Football?

The old Oilers of Dan Pastorini and Earl Campbell were good in the late 70s, but the Terry Bradshaw Steelers twice blocked them in the playoffs.

Basketball?

The Rockets had their schadenfreude of The Beard and CP3 blowing a shot to take down Splash Bros Steph and Clay. Other than that, it's been a LONG time — 25 years now — since Hakeem the Dream, Clyde the Glide, Mad Max, second-year Sam Cassell (not yet with big balls) and coach Rudy T. actually lifted the Larry O'Brien trophy.

Now, to Big D.

The Boys haven't won it all since Barry Switzer coached Jimmy Johnson's accumulation of talent, namely Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, the Moose, Michael Irwin, Jay Novacek, Prime Time/Neon Deion, Charles Haley and more, to a title that proved Jerry Jones kind of right on the coaching side, while the aftermath undercut him on his "socks and jocks" GM side. That's been almost 25 years — just one shy. And, speaking of Sam Cassell's big balls? It was Jimmy Johnson that pulled the trigger to trade Herschel Walker.

Hoops?

While the Mavericks have an untainted more recent title than anybody else, and while Luka and the Unicorn, and supplemental cast, offer hope for the future, Mark Cuban has an abysmal record of landing A-list free agents, and this was true even before Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, blast connecting to the past J.J. Barea, and team led them to the 2011 title.

Baseball?

The Nolan Ryan who was nonplussed by Albert Pujols in 2005 with the Astros was even more so in 2011 with David Freese ripping World Series victory from the Rangers' grasp (aided by Nelson Cruz showing why DH is a better spot for him than right field).

And let's watch both the triple and the home run, OK, Nolan and Rangers fans?



Since shortly after that time, of course, the Rangers haven't generally even been close to winning it all, though they have been in postseason as recently as 2016.

The fourth, tag-along sport? It's been 20 years and counting since the Stars won the Stanley Cup. Well, you're ahead of Houston, which hasn't had major league hockey since the WHA days 40-plus years ago and doesn't currently even have a minor league team.

Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Pudge Rodriguez make Cooperstown; it's about time

Baggs at bat. Photo via Wikipedia.

For Baggs, it's been more than long enough. The man who ranks sixth all-time among first basement on Jay Jaffe's JAWS system gets in on the seventh ballot. He should have been in about six ballots earlier.

Less than 500 homers in the era of roiding and baseball expansion hurt him, even as many voters didn't look at his on-base percentage and other issues. Relatively early retirement for a first baseman also hurt.

But, he's now in. As is Rock Raines, in his 10th and final year of eligibility, with both getting above 85 percent and Ivan Rodriguez, who has had the occasional suspicion or two of PEDing, just sneaking in at 76 percent. (For the record, I personally believe the Jose Canseco allegations about putting a needle or three in Pudge's butt.)

Rodriguez will, unless I'm overlooking or unaware of something, be the first in Cooperstown with a Texas Rangers hat.

Trevor Hoffman just missed. Vladimir Guerrero, who is not a HOFer in my book (see below) got too damned close. He's certainly less deserving than Larry Walker.

Expansion of note to commenter below, re Vlad vs Larry. It's laughable how even ESPN staffers ignore that OPS+, in Walker's case, is both park-neutralized and era-neutralized. Ergo, if you know sabermetrics, there IS no "Coors Field effect."

Believed users of performance-enhancing drugs Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, while moving up in vote percentages, still fall well short, both still short of 55 percent.. With commish-ex Bud Selig now in, plus three likely knowing managers of roiders, in managers Tony La Russa and Joe Torre managing multiple users, and the third, Bobby Cox, managing at least one suspected user,  I'm softening somewhat on voting players in. No reason they should be screwed more than the commish and managers who profited. The above two were HOFers anyway. Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, among others, are not. Manny Ramirez, with multiple testing violations, is not.

Speaking of Canseco, Mr. Header Homer himself has weighed in on today's vote.

Also not in, and not on the ballot, of course, is Pete Rose. Interestingly, Bert Blyleven, himself a HOFer, recently said he thinks roiders hurt baseball more than Pete and his gambling.

Finally, with Edgar Martinez moving above 50 percent, voters may be softening up somewhat on where to vote career or near-career DHs. That said, he has just two years of eligibility left, and is a borderline case for a power position. And, Mike Mussina also broke 50 percent, which may reopen the debate on "compiler" pitchers.

Note: I am definitely pretty much of a "small Hall" person. For those who claim that cutoffs for a "small Hall" are arbitrary, ANY such cutoffs are arbitrary. Ditto on the 10-vote rule, which "big Hall" people hate. Whether a rule is imposed from outside, or internally developed, unless you believe in divine command theories of ethics, and your "ethics" extends to rules in general, rules of this nature are arbitrary. That includes yours, because you have an arbitrary cutoff rule for your "big Hall," too.

If you claim you don't, I'll ask you why Eckstein isn't a HOFer. You have arbitrary rules, too.

Deal with it.

I see no divinity running around; as for the arbitrary rules, for the ESPNers and a few others who want a "big Hall"? Start your own, if you don't like the rules of the current voting.

Otherwise, the claim that "but my rule is different" is the surest indicator of special pleading and oxen being gored.

Josh Hamilton, Texas Ranger?

Josh Hamilton

According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, with Bill Baer at Hardball Talk rounding up several additional links, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Downey, and Owner Cluelessness are prepared to make a "dump" trade of — no stereotyping words — outfielder Josh Hamilton to the Texas Rangers, the city where he made good.

And, it's reportedly a done deal, with the Angels eating all but $15M of his salary.

Several questions, issues, and thoughts.

1. On that "eating salary," per more information, on USA Today and a Hardball Talk commenter, reportedly this is NOT adding up to $68M + $15M. The Angels are allegedly saying that because Texas has no state income tax, Hamilton:

(I)s also expected to help offset the remaining $15 million, according to a person involved with the talks.

I am sure this is not the first trade of a player from a state with income tax to a state with none, or vice versa, with one party eating contract. On the vice versa, the stRangers ate some of A-Rod's contract, but the Yankees weren't asked to "help Alex out" because he would now be paying state income tax.

To me, this sounds like a violation of the collective bargaining agreement between owners and the players union.

And, it's a bogus argument anyway. Twenty-one states have laws on their books to tax the salaries of visiting athletes in road games, meaning the "tax-free state" argument is bullshit. There's more here on how accountants who specialize in working for athletes have to deal with this. Wikipedia even has a jock tax page.

But, per the latest update on the situation, with Hamilton getting an opt-out after just 2 years (like he's gonna use that), Hamilton is eating $6 million of contract money.

Oh, and does anybody think Josh Hamilton is either:

1. Dumb enough to exercise that opt-out and leave $30M on the table (or $28M, after 1/3 of that $6M "no state income tax" is deducted), or

2. Going to have a banner year in 2015 or 2016 making it worth his while to opt out?

If the MLBPA thinks that's worth eating $6M, the players ought to fire Tony Clark and see if they can get Donald Fehr back, or somebody.

A lot of fans, I'll bet, don't get that the money per se isn't the issue; it's a player voluntarily undercutting a signed contract by renegotiation. See Section 2 immediately below.

2. Grant says originally said a buyout of Hamilton's contract is was being mentioned, with the Rangers then signing Hamilton for the veteran minimum, rather than Angels' owner Arte Moreno eating a chunk of the current contract. Unless the buyout is for 100 percent of what's left on the contract, the Players' Association and current executive director Tony Clark have to get involved, don't they?

Do they have that power? Well, if the attempted trade of Alex Rodriguez by the Rangers to the Boston Red Sox is an indicator, the answer is yes:

And the MLBPA nixed it. The union had to approve any alteration to a player’s contract that would reduce his salary. It also had to look out for the best interests of all its members, for whom Rodriguez’s contract was a benchmark rising tide that lifted all boats. And so it said no.

Sounds simple enough. 

That said, per the update, Tony and the union need to get involved on the "no tax, Josh will help us" issue.

3. What is Commissioner Corleone's role, if any?

We know that Rob Manfred, as former Commish Bud Selig's right-hand man for labor issues, was the person who got the Budster to bring the hammer down on A-Rod over Biogenesis. We know that he's been lackadaisical, even when called out on it, in looking at who leaked about Hamilton being under a potential disciplinary gun. Is he seeing this as a chance to push the union, if buyout is the operative word?

4. Given Hamilton's latest relapse is connected to him filing for divorce, and his sobriety support network starting with his soon-to-be ex-wife and ex-father-in-law — as Christian Right/prosperity gospel wingnutty as they are, as I discussed here — what sort of structure does he have for support, or does he expect to have?

Ron Washington is no longer the manager there, after all. With his own background, even if no addiction was involved, of having used cocaine, perhaps Washington, generally known as a "players manager" in terms of clubhouse chemistry, was part of that previous support — and on-field success — too? Jeff Banister may be a decent enough guy, but he didn't manage Hamilton before.

That said, Grant notes:

The Rangers have worked through a number of scenarios, including how Hamilton would fit back into the clubhouse. It should be noted that Roy Silver, who was hired as a special assistant in player development over the winter, operated the faith-based baseball academy at which Hamilton was reintroduced to baseball in 2007.

So, that may help. Or may not.

After all, just a month ago, Silver said Hamilton should retire.

5. Whether as a buyout for "considerations" or a straight trade, who do the Rangers send back? A few people on Hardball Talk have suggested Shin-Soo Choo. That would be even dumber, IMO, for Moreno than keeping Hamilton. Sure, it's over twice as many years, but Choo's remaining contract is 50 percent more than Hamilton's. I've suggested Elvis Andrus, who's just starting a long-term contract that's a moderate but not humongous overpay. Either he or incumbent Erick Aybar could be moved to second, as I highly doubt that Johnny Giovotella's start this season will last.

6. That said, per other fans, I don't get what's in this for the Rangers, other than a marketing deal. They're nowhere near contending this year, and many thought they'd be lucky to finish ahead of the Astros and stay out of the cellar, especially after losing Yu Darvish for the year to Tommy John surgery. Maybe they want butts in seats that badly, and the price was cheap enough, given that we have yet to hear any names of players going back to the Angels.

7. How will he do? Better than in LA, on non-park-adjusted stats, since Arlington's a launch pad and Anaheim is slightly to moderately pitcher friendly.

Adjusted stats? He'll probably do somewhat better than with the Haloes, but a fair amount worse on both adjusted and unadjusted stats than he did with the Rangers the previous go-round. And with him in left and Choo in right, Leonys Martin will have to bring his A game defensively every night.

#Twitter smack talk from #baseball history

Old Hoss Radbourn, first
Twitter smackdown artist
and verschizzle master.

Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie getting Twitter smack, from the official Orioles account among other places, for wearing a not totally innocuous, but not highly offensive, T-shirt at the Game 3 ALCS post-game presser reminds me, that in the spirit of Old Hoss Radbourn, we need to look at some great player-to-player Twitter smackdowns of the past, at least of the postseason.

Here's two classics, one from 1932 and one from 1988, to get us started.

@CharlieRoot: That ball’s still traveling. I called it. You blew it. Don't deny it. — @TheRealBabe

Or, here’s some more verschnizzle we should have had on Twitter, from the late 80s:

@TheEckMan: Put that in your ‘stache and smoke it. — @GibbyGotGrit

Moderner times? This should have been a classic, from 2011:

@LilWash @LowerThanLowe: I will see YOU and YOU tomorrow night! — @FreeseFrame

Or, a few years earlier, from 2009:
@MrNovember: Don't gloat yet. I got five rings before you. — @MrOctober

Or even an in-game one, maybe, from 1954:
@ForBetterOrForWertz: Ball, meet glove. Indians, meet the end. — @SayHeyKid

The Ron Washington mystery self deepens

The recently resigned manager of the Texas Rangers, Ron Washington, held a news conference today, in which he theoretically addressed why he resigned.



Only thing is, if a rumor of sexual assault is correct, or even close to correct, all he did was dig the hole deeper. And, hence the header of "self deepens."

First, if this were just a case of cheating on his wife, why did he have an attorney there?

Washington entered the ballroom with his wife and attorney Jason Lewis of the Dallas-based Greenberg Traurig LLP.

Greenberg Traurig isn't a penny-ante law firm, either, or even close to it. Not with nearly 50 years of history, 36 worldwide offices including eight outside North America, providing lobbying services in the US, and being publicly traded, per Wikipedia, which also kindly reminds me that this was were Jack Abramoff of vulturedom resided until GT canned him. So, Abramoff's ethics aside, GT is a power hitter.

Second, as for people who say this is all trash-mongering, well, Washington didn't have to hold a presser in the first place, and certainly not one where he tried to sling papier-mâché to cover up cracks in a story line that he didn't have to share anyway.

Third,  Rangers GM Jon Daniels kept Washington on the job after news of his positive drug test in 2009. He and the team did NOT offer a leave of absence in this year’s case, though. Also, nobody from the Rangers was at the presser today.

And, if he does want back in the game, I'm with Tim Cowlishaw — any cloud that still lingers means he gets back in as a coach, not a manager, at least to start.

And, as far as managers? Surely the Rangers could do better than hiring Mr. Super-Utility, Michael Young, next year. I'm sure either Mike Maddux or Steve Buechele would be a better choice. Daniels has also said that interim manager Tim Bogar will get full consideration to be the permanent replacement.

Should the #Cardinals jump on Alex Rios?

Alex Rios / Photo via NBC Sports.

Jon Heyman, actually writing about a player who's not a Scott Boras client (what's up with that?) says that the Royals are kicking the tires on the Rangers' Alex Rios.

I have a better idea, for the team on the other side of the state.

Since he’s actually hitting this year, if the Rangers want to save a few dinero, I’d swap Allen Craig for him straight up. That’s with the idea of the Cards picking up the option.

Rios himself has become somewhat of a defensive liability with age. But, he's not so much so as Craig. And, a park-adjusted OPS of 110 is much better than Craig's 82. Unlike with the Royals (presumably), the idea would be of picking up Rios' option.

First, even with Rios declining defensively, he offers better defense, on both range and arm, than does Craig.

Second, he offers speed, even in decline, something that Craig clearly does not. 

Both are very important as scoring continues to decline. That said, Mike Matheny still appears semi-clueless about how to manage, and even more, manage for, speed, but that's another story.

Craig's contract is three years longer than Rios' is, treating both team options equally. At what seemed like very good cost control two years ago, trading Craig could still be dicey. The Cards would be gambling that he wouldn't rebound.

Because of that, and the salary difference ... a straight-up trade, realistically, would be an overpay.

So, I'd ask one other player in return.

Neftali Feliz.

Since he's not closing now, with Joakim Soria doing that for the Rangers, his next two arb years go cheap. Well, under my domino theory, his 2015 arb year goes cheap, 2016 a little less so.

Next year, with Feliz in spring training, the Cards look at making him the closer and giving Trevor Rosenthal the shot he's wanted at being a starter.

Unbelievable Scott Boras, more unbelievable Jon Heyman, on Kendrys Morales

CBS Sports' Jon Heyman has long been accused of being little more than a mouthpiece for baseball überagent Scott Boras. (It's OK if you spell that with an extra "s" at the end, by the way.)

The saga of former Seattle Mariner first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales is proof positive of that, both being a mouthpiece and as such, being unbelievable, at least until corroborated by another scribe.

Heyman claims the Yankees, Brewers and Mariners are all likely candidates to sign him. 

First, scratch the Mariners. Since they had him last year, they wouldn't have lost a draft pick in compensation to sign him again. The only way we shouldn't scratch the Mariners is if Borass suddenly caved in on his asking price, and that's highly unlikely. It's also unlikely that the M's caved that much out of nowhere, either.

Second, scratch the Yankees, even more than Heyman partially does. Carlos Beltran is back in the lineup.

Third, scratch the Brewers. They're an NL team, so they can't hide his fielding problems at DH. Besides, Aramis Ramirez is back off the DL, which means that Mark Reynolds can play just 1B, where he's clearly better than Lyle Overbay.

Heyman then indicates possible interest from the Rangers. Well, scratch them since Alexi Ogando has joined the mounting injury travails, and like Prince Fielder, whom Morales would replace, is out for the year, or at least possibly so. (Update, June 7: The Boras/Heyman duo have apparently suckered Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, with his "unnamed sources," to drink this Kool-Aid.)

He then talks about a "mystery team." First, this sounds just like a Borass PR line.

(Update: June 7: Surprisingly, there was a "mystery team." Actually, terms I would prefer, as politely noted in my new blog post, would be "head-scratching team" or "WTF team." The Twins DID drink the Kool-Aid.)

Second, given Heyman's one bit of absolute truth in his piece, that Morales is an AL-first player because of fielding limitations, beyond the already-scratched M's, Yankees and Rangers, I can scratch Toronto (no need with Edwin Encarnacion at 1B and Adam Lind at DH), Baltimore (no need with Chris Davis 1B/Nelson Cruz DH), Boston Mike Napoli/David Ortiz), Tigers (Miguel Cabrera/Victor Martinez); Angels (no need with Albert Pujols at 1B and Josh Hamilton back off DL), and the White Sox, with Jose Abreu back off the DL.

Other teams? Rays are out of it. Royals and Twins are price-tag challenged. That's pretty true for the A's, too. Astros are that, plus out of it. And, that covers the AL.

So, Mr. Heyman, at least in the AL, there's NO "mystery team." Period and end of story.

Time for the #Rangers to trade Beltre?

First, we find out that Prince Fielder is having the neck disc surgery and will be gone for the year. Next, we learn that Jurickson Profar has retweaked his teres muscle and will not come up until September, it seems.

No matter Ron Washington's luck, or chemistry production, to overcome his bunting lunacy, his idiocy in playing Fielder ahead of Mitch Moreland on defense at first and other things, his super-Pythagorean can't overcome this.

The Rangers' lineup is now Shin-Soo Choo, Adrian Beltre, kind-of sort-of Alex Rios and a bunch of creampuffs.

Kevin Sherrington suggests Rios is the best trade bait. I think not. He's a free agent after this year on a club option after this year that may be a bit pricey, and medium-level outfielders besides him will be available in trade sometime this year. The Cards may trade out of their outfield surplus with a less pricey outfielder, for example.

So, the Rangers have one smart trade piece to offer.

It's Beltre.

And, there's one team out there ...

A contender ...

With money to take on all of Beltre's salary for this year and next ...

With a current black hole of sorts at 3B ...

With a general manager who likes older players.

Come on down, San Francisco Giants!

Beltre's a big upgrade with both bat and glove over Pablo Sandoval. Only question is what Brian Sabean has to offer in return.

Back-up catcher Hector Sanchez, I would think, would be the starting point for any trade talks. He's a solid hitter in somewhat limited action so far and grades slightly above average defensively. In short, he'd be the best Rangers catcher in at least half a decade, and just starts arbitration next year. Tyler Colvin might be worth being part of the mix; would be easier to take a gamble on letting Rios walk. After that, look for a couple of prospects, one of them a pitcher, since the Rangers are shaky there with the injury situation of Martin Perez and Matt Harrison.

Per Cot's Contracts, the Giants are carrying $149M this year in salaries. In 2015, Sandoval of course would be gone. We'll assume somebody pays him $12M/yr minimum. So, Beltre's $18M is an additional $6M in 2015, and an extra $4M if his option for 2016 vests, as is likely. Other Giant free agents next year are Michael Morse, Sergio Romo, and Ryan Vogelsong. I'll assume that the Giants resign Morse for a decent hike, let Vogelsong walk and resign Romo for a modest hike. I'll assume that's a net wash. In 2016, the likely-retiring Tim Hudson comes off the books, as does Mr. Marijuana, Tim Lincecum, whom the Giants won't resign if they're smart.

As for other possible trade partners? Brew Crew has nowhere near the money to take Beltre's full contract. Braves might not. Yankees certainly do, but what players do they have to offer? Tigers passed on Drew, so I presume they'd not take Beltre's full contract. Giants are best smart bet. (A friend of mine has just suggested the Royals go all-in, but, I don't see that happening. Plus, since Beltre likely has two years left on his contract after this one, if "all-in" falls short, they're in financial iffiness. That said, I'm sure they have prospects the Rangers would like.)

On the Giants' side? They get someone who's definitely playing third better this year, someone who can be more of a clubhouse leader for sure, and someone who, even with a few more years under his belt, is a better defender than Sandoval.  They also get relieved of the headaches of messing with Sandoval.

On the Rangers' salary side? There's several minor free agents next year but no biggies, other than presumably getting Sandoval sent back. With losing Beltre's contract, they'd have money not just for arbitration for Sanchez, but maybe to buy out his arbitration years plus the start of free agency, and to give Colvin, if he were in the deal, a moderate bump over his current $1M. They could then decide how low to price Sandoval.

On the Ranger fandom side? If you're touting Jorge Alfaro, a high-A minors player, as the most likely catcher of the future within the current system, wouldn't you like to have an option or two?

#Sabermetrics: The Pujols advantage over other big boppers at first base

When Miguel Cabrera signed his big new contract with Detroit earlier this year, the response of this blogger and many pro sports writers was: Too long. Specifically, we generally cited the similar contract of Albert Pujols.

There's two other first basemen of roughly the same age to throw into this mix. That's Prince Fielder, traded from Detroit to Texas to let Miggy move from third to first, and Ryan Howard.

But, there's one difference between them.

Pujols is a plus fielder at first; none of the others are. In fact, none of them are close.

A friend of mine scoffed when I called Pujols a plus fielder, but the record doesn't lie. First, there's the two Gold Gloves — and four Fielding Bible awards. But, let's move beyond that into sabermetrics, since FB uses them much more than GG traditionally has.

The basics? Prince Albert has a career total (which includes a few OF and 3B games) of 134 fielding runs. And he has a career positive of 1.9 dWAR. 

For reference, the fielding and mustache god of modern first basemen, Keith Hernandez, has only, yes, only, 117 fielding runs and 0.6 career dWAR.

Now, to the others.

Howard's long been regarded as a statue, and stats don't lie. He weighs in with -46 fielding runs and -12.4 dWAR for his career.

Fielder? A couple of years ago, a lot of allegedly sabermetrically informed writers and bloggers talked about when he'd lose his range at first. I got news for you all — he never had it. At -93 fielding runs and -17.8 dWAR, he's worse than Howard. He's had a slightly longer career, but not that much longer. In other words, on average, each has cost his team a little more than a full point of dWAR, and around 7-10 fielding runs, per year.

Miggy, actually, comes off as relatively not so bad. At -77 fielding runs and -12.0 dWAR, in a career longer than Fielder's, let alone Howard's, and noting that most of this was at third not first, perhaps some of us have been a bit hard on him? 

Actually, no. His first couple of years at 3B in Miami weren't too bad, but he soon looked like crap. Detroit, let us not forget, quickly moved him to first after trading for him, before getting the even more immobile Fielder.

(All Baseball-Reference stats are for all positions for those playing multiple spots.)

Just to dip to Fangraphs, on a cross check, on total zone runs and ultimate zone rating per 150 defensive games.
Hernandez: 121/(no UZR)
Pujols: 96/6.2
Cabrera: -7/-2.0
Fielder: -38/-5.5
Howard: 14/-3.4 (really)
All Fangraphs numbers are for first base only. 

I did not include Joey Votto in any comparisons, for two reasons.

First, he's got an even shorter MLB career to date. Second, he doesn't have the "statue" reputation.

Sidebar: this shows that "we" still have a ways to go in advanced defensive metrics. While Baseball-Reference is my go-to for stats, and I generally rate it over Fangraphs, Fangraphs has its value. This isn't the first time the two have differed a lot on defensive issues. I don't really believe Fangraphs on Howard; on the other hand, I don't totally believe B-R that Pujols is in the same league as Hernandez. On the third hand, B-R's advanced fielding says that Prince Albert has just six fewer ground ball double plays initiated than does the Merry Mex. For comparison, Howard has about 80 fewer and Fielder about 75 fewer, so, maybe B-R shouldn't be doubted quite so much as I think.

Anyway, given all that I wrote above, on fielding, it makes me wonder if Prince Albert hasn't even been underappreciated in some way.

Anyway, moving on ...

Future realities?

Cabrera could go to DH as early as next year, if the Tigers don't resign Victor Martinez, or land another DH-first person. That, in turn probably depends on other things, starting with whether or not they resign Max Scherzer.

Fielder? Mitch Moreland's at DH now, and hits arbitration next year. He could be traded, or not. Why he's not the primary 1B in Arlington now, I have no idea other than two words: "Ron Washington." Of course, we know what he thinks about sabermetrics.

Howard? He should be traded to an AL team, but no trades out of Philly (sorry, Cliff Lee) are happening until Ruben Amaro is finally fired. That said, given that Howard refuses to adjust a lot, he's not that good of trade bait, except to AL teams with a short right field. Calling the Steinbrenner brothers!

Pujols? He's still a plus fielder. He's said he'll take a day here and there of being "spotted" at DH, but, as long as he's an even fielder, as well as a plus fielder (he started a 3-6-3 double play recently) why would you do anything but keep him at first? This is also part of why on overall WAR, and even more WAA, he's a cut above Cabrera and at least that much above the others.

It's also an advantage to the team. If you have someone who's still bringing this level of power and who can at the same time make a positive contribution with the glove or, at minimum, even a few years down the road, not make a negative one, it gives you more lineup flexibility.

Speaking of adjustments, most of Pujols' early home runs have been on high strikes. Whether he's guessing well, has lost a few pounds (it looks possible), has gone to a lighter bat, or is quicker on turning on the ball without the fasciitis, or some combination of the above, I don't know. But something's happened.

This all also shows that, even if Pujols' contract still turns out to be a long-term overpay, and even if 1B is not a defense-first position, it's still going to be much less of an overpay than Cabrera's new one, or even Fielder's current one, in all likelihood; that said, Fielder being younger helps a bit. Howard? We already know the truth about his albatross; the Phillies are just lucky on its shorter length.

And, let's not forget that, with passing the 500-HR mark, he's probably more likely to pass 600 than most the others on this list are to pass 500. 

===

Welcome, visitors from Fangraphs and elsewhere. See some of my other recent baseball blogging, including my touting of a new Kozma Line as a sabermetric replacement for the old Mendoza line and, with the century mark at Wrigley, my take on Babe Ruth's called shot.

Great new bio of Ted Williams out

The Kid: The Immortal Life of Ted Williams by Ben Bradlee Jr.

My rating: 5 of 5 stars


This should be the final word on Ted Williams.

It's more in-depth than anything else I've read about his almost manic (in a clinical psychology sense) depth of anger and the childhood sources of it, namely, anger at his mother for her endless time and monetary devotion to the Salvation Army but lack thereof to him, and anger and embarrassment at his mom and mom's family for being Mexican-American, most of them notably so both by skin tone and, presumably, by language as first-generation immigrants.

Bradlee shows how this anger then seemed to get "transferred" to women in Williams' tumultuous personal life, with wives, lovers and mistresses, and, in the case of wives, bad parenting of, and anger at, his three kids. Yet, for children not his own, as Bradlee shows with things like the Jimmy Fund and more, perhaps thinking of his own childhood, Williams could be unfailingly kind and loving. Indeed, Bradlee compares him, and his family background, to Babe Ruth.

At the same time, primarily vis-a-vis Boston sportswriters, Williams used this anger, often creating slights out of molehills, to fuel his drive as a batter.

Bradlee also covers Ted's politics, his anger at the Marines over his Korea call-up and more, including his ambivalent relationship to his fame, and sometimes sycophancy around him.

Bradlee also knows his sports, though, and writes well about this, including the long-running comparisons to Joe DiMaggio and Ted's relation with teammates like Dom DiMaggio and Johnny Pesky, as well as his call for Hall of Fame induction of Negro League stars like Satchel Paige and his support of Jackie Robinson, Pumpsie Green, Larry Doby and more.

I pictured Ted today, with a Twitter account, after reading this bio. Any player who threw a double bird separately, to left, center, and right fields would be hell on wheels in today's plugged-in world. As for today's sports journalism world, Williams would probably take great delight in pissing off more people than he could have dreamed of 60 years ago.


View all my reviews

This week in MLB: Bad contracts, broken Rangers, good contracts, #Cardinals cockamamie

Bad contracts? Here's my take on the badness of Philly overpaying for A.J. Burnett, especially since we now know it's a two-year deal, not one year. Phillies fans, is it time to place props bets, or over-unders, on GM Ruben Amaro lasting out the season or not?

Broken Rangers? The rotation in Arlington looks pretty shaky to me if Matt Harrison's latest back woes are a harbinger. Will Jon Daniels chase Ervin Santana or Jeff Samardzija? Should he?

Good contracts? It still seems odd, hence my year-early comment, but, all contracts are a gamble and the Braves seem to be doing right by Andrelton Simmons. That said, doesn't this mean that Arte Moreno and Jerry DiPoto realistically have one month left to do something team-friendly and player-friendly both with Mike Trout? And, from the team's point of view, the Orioles' cheap deal for former Ranger RF Nelson Cruz is fairly good, though I think it's not perfect. It also will likely do one of two things: It will either quickly clear up much of the remaining free agent logjam, or it's going to lead a couple of players  (read: agents) to dig in their heels.

Falling between good and bad? I'm not sold on the megadeal for Homer Bailey. That includes arguing that middle-market teams shouldn't put that many contract-egg dollars into middle-level players.

Cardinals cockamamie? Bernie Miklasz cues up the mythical "Cardinal way," with some extra sugar of St. Stan Musial, to implore Ozzie Smith and Tony La Russa to kiss and make up. Read more of my thoughts on why this is quite possibly the worst column Bernie's ever written.

And, speaking of Ozzie, no, Derek Jeter, Yankeedom and all, is not a better lifetime shortstop than him.

Finally, I talk about why I prefer Baseball-Reference to Fangraphs in making those and other observations.

Cruz to Orioles: Price is at least halfway right

So, the Baltimore Orioles, continuing to play small ball in the free agent world, have signed former Texas Rangers right fielder Nelson Cruz on the easy terms of one year for $8 million and incentives change.

Yeah, it's nice to get him on the cheap, and boy, his stock has fallen, eh? But, if you're paying the draft choice price, shouldn't you at a minimum try to have an option year, not a straight one year? Even if that pick is a second-rounder?

From the team's point of view, not getting a team, or a mutual, option on a second year seems unwise also, beyond the comp pick issue. One-year free agents don't lend themselves to team stability. With Cruz, he'll surely have a bigger drop-off some point in the future, but I think he has two decent years in him, and that second year, whether straight or an option, could have been more incentive laced, perhaps with vesting options or something.

Anyway, beyond Cruz, this kind of "slots" Kendrys Morales, too, doesn't it? I'd be more likely to give him a second year, but, at best, is he looking at 3/$35, and that's if he will commit to a 3-yr deal. If a team like Baltimore would only lose an inter-round, or even just a second round pick up him, he could fall to what, 1/$11 or something?

I think this has spill to the pitching market, too. Ervin Santana and his agent need to start reading tea leaves. Could he wind up going back to the Angels? With Mark Mulder not an option, a cheap Santana would firm up their roster. Or, maybe Jon Daniels takes a cheap flier over Matt Harrison worries?

Finally, with this move plus the Ubaldo Jimenez signing, the Orioles, especially if they get the late 2013 Jimenez, are definitely somewhere "in the mix" in the AL East now.

Rangers rotation: Suddenly shaky?

The news that Matt Harrison, he of two back surgeries and some arm issues before that, is having a new set of back issues cannot be good news for fans in Arlington, Texas, and elsewhere.

If Harrison is shelved for any significant time, you have Colby Lewis coming back from hip surgery, Tommy Hanson who's declined every year he's been in MLB, a Martin Perez whom the Rangers may not want to pick up too many additional innings at the age of 22, and a Derek Holland currently on the shelf himself and back who knows when for sure, to try to fill out the rotation after Yu Darvish, Alexei Ogando and various sacks of hammers, including Nick Tepesch as one of those. Add in that Ogando only had a half season last year, and, at the age of 29, that was just his second year as a starter, and that rotation looks pretty thin.

That said, what should Harrison's prognosis be?

Give that his pre-back surgery arm problems were more shoulder than elbow, I wonder if he already had a bit of something in his back, and the shoulder was compensation? The thoracic outlet surgery, in addition to the back surgeries, might indicate that. And, in that case, maybe it's time for Jon Daniels to just write him off?

And, does Daniels make any moves? Ervin Santana's still out there in free agent world, though a lot of Rangers fans might shudder at the idea of him pitching in a gopher ball place like The Ballpark of Lame-Ass Corporate Renamings. Or, there's trading from the prospect pool to the Cubbies for Jeff Samardzija, if you will.

Most prognosticators are pegging the Rangers at around 9-10 among all 30 teams, and "in the mix" for the AL West title with the A's, and a an Angels team expected to improve from last year but still finish out of the money.

Oliver sudden, I'd revise those thoughts, or at least put them on hold, you know?

With Tanaka gone, what about other free agent pieces? And #Cardinals contracts?

Jonah Keri takes a flier on how the rest of the MLB free agent jam might break out now that the Yankees have signed Masahiro Tanaka. I agree with about two-thirds of it.

David Price will be traded to somebody during the season. The Rays have seen Clayton Kershaw's, now Tanaka's contracts; they know that, if he has a good year, he's going to get $20M that final arbitration year, if not more. I can see Arizona as a possible landing spot, yes. However, other teams could push themselves in the mix, too. Boston wouldn't be a total surprise, nor would the Dodgers.

On the fly balls and Ubaldo Jimenez, hmm, yeah, he might not be a bad fit in Anaheim, and yes, it is a bit at least on the pitcher friendly side. 3/$45 could be "fair" on both sides.

I am less certain than Keri about future landing spots on either Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz. The Prince Fielder-Ian Kinsler trade let the Tigers upgrade their D, and this would be a definite step backward for a declining asset. Where Cruz does go, I'm not sure. But, Detroit doesn't dazzle. He, like Boston shortstop Stephen Drew, could wind up settling on a one-year pillow back with the home club.

And, per Keri's analysis, I could see Morales there, but just barely. You hesitate to offer a longer-term deal, but, with the comp picks, short-term deals aren't good either, anymore. If I'm the Rangers, I'd prefer to cut a one-year deal with Cruz, I think.

If I'm the Rangers? I see them chasing Bronson Arroyo before going after Morales. No, he's not Tanaka, but he's a cheap "filler" without a tender offer from the Reds, so the Rangers don't lose a draft pick.

Interesting possible on the Rays, on Ervin Santana. Wouldn't be a bad deal if the price is right.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Mariners make a run at any of the pitchers on the list.

I also expect sidebar fallout in, say, 2016. The Cards will start looking at their young guns and seeing about Allen Craig type contracts on one or two of them -- buying up not just arb years but, say, 1 or 2 free agent years. So, somebody in the mix of Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha could get some nice extensions in 2016; maybe Trevor Rosenthal in 2017.