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Supposedly the White House is negotiating a transitional government for Egypt. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world/middleeast/04diplomacy.html Will it be led by Mohamed ElBaradei?
Nope:
The Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal for President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately, turning over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military, administration officials and Arab diplomats said Thursday.
The story does note that this decision could be contingent on the mood in the "Egyptian street." That said, for Team Obama to even consider this - and even more, to announce its decision for public consumption - is pure-D dumb.
What could Egypt look like after the departure of President Hosni Mubarak? And how close, or far away, is that day?
A post-Mubarak Egypt, assuming it's not run by son Gamal or CIA-loving thug Omar Suleiman, will probably be a lot like Turkey. Unless you're an American exceptionalist of the bipartistan foreign policy establishment, there's nothing wrong with that. Might even be some good in it.
Anyway, if the bipartisans think we can't live with that, we'll have to learn. And, maybe Israel needs to start being less intransigent with Palestinians about now, if Egypt does become another Turkey. In light of Al Jazeera's Palestine papers, might be some good there, too.
What of the Muslim Brotherhood? Is it eeevvulll like neocons say? Will it co-opt Mubarak, and make him Egypt's Abolhassan Bansadr?
Scholar of religion Scott Atran says it's incompetent, if anything, so such co-opting is unlikely. And, Atran says it's a "carpetbagger" as much as some claim ElBaradei is:
Ever since its founding in 1928 as a rival to Western-inspired nationalist movements that had failed to free Egypt from foreign powers, the Muslim Brotherhood has tried to revive Islamic power. Yet in 83 years it has botched every opportunity. In Egypt today, the Brotherhood counts perhaps some 100,000 adherents out of a population of over 80 million. And its failure to support the initial uprising in Cairo on Jan. 25 has made it marginal to the spirit of revolt now spreading through the Arab world.
That said, Atran adds that this is two wrongs definitely not making a right.
This error was compounded when the Brotherhood threw in its lot with ElBaradei, the former diplomat and Nobel Prize winner. (W)hen ElBaradei strode into Tahrir Square, many ignored him and few rallied to his side despite the enormous publicity he was receiving in the Western press. The Brotherhood realized that in addition to being late, it might be backing the wrong horse.
Very, very interesting.
Meanwhile, if ElBaradei is "the man" ... and it may be somebody flying below the West's radar screen, instead, Juan Cole says Egypt is not Iran 1979.
I know a lot of people have said that's the case because Egypt doesn't have oil.
No, but it does have other resources, like tourism. And, a theocratic Egypt could decide to deliberately cut off the West, while marketing to the Muslim world.
We shall see.
And, let's hope ElBaradei or whomever has a thicker skin than the criticism-sensitive Mubarak. Looks like Hosni has a thin skin.
First, will Egyptians really accept Mohamed ElBaradei as possible leader of a new government, or will they treat him as a Johnny-come-lately and carpetbagger?
Meanwhile, with the Egyptian military, for now at least, not firing on protesters, this may not be just an academic question.
And, Salon has an excellent piece on ElBaradei's partner, for now at least, the Muslim Brotherhood.
Time frame? I would say that, by the end of this week, President Hosni Mubarak is either back in the saddle firmly, or else negotiating an exit.
Both the New York Times and Ha'aretz from Israel report that Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Muslim Brotherhood have reached rapproachment on forming a national unity government, broad based, to include everybody but current Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's National Democratic Party.
From Ha'aretz:
"I have been authorized -- mandated -- by the people who organized these demonstrations and many other parties to agree on a national unity government," (ElBaradei) told CNN.
The NYT notes that ElBaradei is not afraid to call out the Obama Administration for continuing to prop up Mubarak.
“It’s better for President Obama not to appear that he is the last one to say to President Mubarak, it’s time for you to go,” Dr. ElBaradei said.
Given how he refused to sign off on BushCo bullshit in Iraq, while running the IAEA, this should be of no surprise.
It is seeming more and more clear that the police aren't strongly in Mubarak's corner. The military, with hardware largely paid for by the U.S., still seems strong for the moment. But, remember, Nicholas II lost the gendarmes first, then the military, in 1917.
So, too, did a certain Reza Pahlavi in 1979. Will Mubarak's path follow the late Shah of Iran's, who, ironically, lived his last days in Egypt, which led the Muslim Brotherhood to assassinate Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, which put Mubarak in power?
Former President Jimmy Carter, who is certainly in a position to remember Iran and the Shah's fall in 1979, agrees that Mubarak is eventually likely to go.
And, speaking of that, will ElBaradei pull this off? Or, will Mubarak try to co-opt him, to make him, in essence, Egypt's Shapour Bakhtiar? I doubt ElBaradei can be co-opted. If we were talking about former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, that would be different. Indeed, that might be Mubarak's next move.
And, Ross Douthat completes a circle of sorts by reminding us that the U.S.'s continued propping up of Mubarak was surely a major factor in 9/11. Remember, mastermind Mohamed Atta, among others, was Egyptian.
However, it is possible that ElBaradie could be undercut by the Brotherhood at some point, and become Egypt's equivalent of Abolhassan Banisadr.
Meanwhile, here's more on Omar Suleman, the thuggish CIA pal that Mjbarak has lined up to replace him, it seems.
And, further meanwhile, here's Hillary Clinton pushing for "real democracy" in Egypt. (Muslim parties, of course, need not apply.)
