Community newspapers, wake up and plan for worst case 2025 now!

Community newspapers, a somewhat vague term but one that starts with small-circulation six-day dailies and goes downward in size from there, face somewhat different concerns in today's world of financial perils than do their larger siblings. This is even more true for the non-daily segment of the community newspaper world.

Non-daily newspapers don't have to worry about people going online to find AP news, because that's never been in their papers. They don't have to worry too much about slashed national advertising money. (They do have to worry about that to a degree, though; retailers and fast-food chains have cut their pass-through money for advertising and marketing to local franchises, and Valassis, the nation's No. 1 publisher of insert advertising, has increased its downward pressure on community newspapers after cutting a sweetheart deal with the United States Postal Service.)

That said, that parenthetical comment shows that community newspapers aren't worry-free. And, given that they can look at their bigger seven-day dailies, they have no excuse to be complacent.

For example, the L.A. and Tampa Bay daily newspaper worlds have hit new levels of crisis, as I blogged earlier this week.

That said, back to the community newspaper world, both the daily and non-daily sides.

First, "programmatic advertising," in which major national ad brokers use computer algorithms to find the cheapest slotting they can for their clients, is likely going to partially trickle down to those five- and six-day community daily newspapers.

And, digital ad revenue will fail to make up for print ad declines. Print ads will decline less at community newspapers, to be true, but digital advertising won't pick up much. With no wire stories, local websites just don't get that much traffic. See here for more on ad issues in general.

And, Valassis, and other major inserters, like Red Plum, will continue to apply downward pressure.

Second, circulation revenue will likely continue to slip. There's a couple of reasons for that. At the daily wing of community newspapers, days that are thinnest on community news will continue to fall in single-copy sales. More six-day dailies will thus look at moving to five-day editions. If they don't provide a slight break on subscriptions with that, they'll lose yet more folks. A fair amount of five-day dailies will look at going tri-weekly (with a mini-wire service feed) or even semi-weekly. That will save money, yes, but subscriptions will have to be adjusted at the same time. (Personal experience: CNHI tried going from five-day daily to semiweekly at the first newspaper where I worked, without crediting current subscribers or extending their subscriptions. By the time the mass of subscriptions cancellations told them what a mistake they had made, they wound up deciding to close the paper.)

Circulation revenue will slip for two other reasons. One, for community papers that have put up paywalls, there's not only no more low-hanging fruit, there's no more fruit, period. Unlike a New York Times, you can't price out mini-subscriptions for just op-eds, or just the books review, or whatever. See here for more on digital subscription issues in general; same link as above.

Also, while old white folks are the most regular newspaper readers, they're also the ones nearest death! Most of the obits in community newspapers are lost subscribers.

Meanwhile, the Postal Service is only going to get worse. Even at the NAA, I don't see anybody picking up the Washington lobbying cudgels for my ideal solution of going back to the pre-1971 United States Post Office, either. By 2025, half of the remaining regional service centers may well be closed. And, the kids of the old white subscribers, especially if the parents are dead, the kids that have moved away, will drop their subscriptions. They'll only do a digital one if it's digital-only, and discounted.

That leads to a related issue. Even if you have a paywall, saying the digital comes free with print, as a sneaky way of saying you don't offer digital-only subscriptions, won't fly forever, either.

And, Facebook in particular and social media in general will not be your salvation! If anything, it will be even less the salvation of community newspapers than it has been for major ones. Community gossip, rumor, and occasional fact are easy to get spread digitally with somebody's "community" Facebook page.

Hence, my header.

Community newspaper owners need to brainstorm what they think could be their worst scenario in 2025 — then start planning for that to happen in 2020. And then, of course, figure out how they can prevent, or at least mitigate that.

The worst case? Per that link above, newsprint prices have held pretty low. Picture them taking a major jump. Picture electricity prices for presses taking a hike as the shale gas "boom" turns out to be pretty much of a bubble by 2025. And, the Postal Service is 3x teh suck of today.

Dear community newspapers: Are you really preparing now to be really digital-first newspapers? I kind of doubt it. Even more, are you preparing for the outside possibility that your best realistic financial move 10-12 years from now might be digital-only? I totally doubt that.

Don’t use UPS – and don’t ship Starbucks except on your own

Why? (Updated at bottom.)

A friend sent me a package — Starbucks. The driver Tuesday, new to the route, never showed at my apartment. My friend e-mails, and when I say, “no show,” she calls the UPS 1-800 tracking number, gives them my cell, and is told they will call me.

Nope; never happens.

Today? Dallas office calls after I call 1-800 number. A person there said if I left a note with my signature, the package tracking number, and the note saying “leave package at door, I accept liability,” the driver would leave it. Well, the driver DIDN’T leave it. Just left standard UPS note.

I call 1-800, raise hell. UPS delivery manager said to sign the back of UPS note to same end as my original note, and the driver will leave the package. We’ll see.

But, wait, that’s not all!

My friend said Starbucks never sent her the promised tracking number at time of shipping. An agent said she’s resend, but never did, so she had to look up the order herself.

Moral? Ship stuff yourself, rather than via third-party company shipping.

And, be a good laborite, as well. Use the U.S. Postal Service instead of FedEx.

Update, July 9: I sign the back of the official UPS note, etc. Leave at my apartment. I come back from the DeSoto library at 8 p.m. NO PACKAGE! Again!

Call 1-800 tracking number. Really unload. Tell person to pass on to Dallas office that I'm a newspaper editor. She claims there was a delivery attempt. Well, either the driver is a liar, incompetent to not take the note, can't read English as an immigrant, or is an illiterate American. She says somebody from Dallas will call me by 10 a.m.

I just e-mailed my friend:

If I don’t get it today (Friday), I suggest you tell Starbucks to cancel UPS shipping AND order. If it is non-responsive, tell them you’ll refuse to pay, if you used credit.

Update 2, July 10: Well, the package is its way back to a warehouse in Ohio, unless I want to try an intercept on it. And, given UPS policies and delivery times, why? And, given contradictions, or possible lies, why?

UPS called this morning and said that yesterday counted as a third delivery attempt, even though the driver did not leave a second note, did not comment on my liability note, etc. I heard lies or contradictions on the phone today, too.

One was that it was a regular driver who made the first attempt. Either that was wrong today, or that was wrong two days ago, when I was told it wasn’t. Finally, the person who spoke to me today admitted that, whoever it was, he/she did not leave a UPS note.

The second was that they don’t leave boxes at apartment manager’s offices. Either that’s a lie, or a change in policy from three years ago.

The third is that it is OK to leave boxes at apartment doorsteps. If it isn't, then why was I told to sign a note to that effect in the first place?

In any case, they said the package was headed back to Ohio. The lady said I could do an intercept on it, but I’m in no mood to do anything but write UPS another 500-character limited webmail. With a link to this blog post as part of that.

Hypocrisy alert – NWF et al join USPS in loving junk mail

NWF and others also hypocrites on gimme gifts

The U.S. Postal Service, though barred by law from official government lobbying, is strongly fighting “Do Not Mail” registries at the state government level. Such registries would be similar to the federal Do Not Call anti-telemarketing phone registry.

Sean Sheehan of the progressive activist group Center for a New American Dream, said state efforts may precede national action, just as they did with the Do Not Call Registry.

Making interesting, if not strange, bedfellows, with USPS, among others, are environmental groups.

A national registry “would affect anybody who mails,” said Laura Hickey, senior director of global warming education at the National Wildlife Foundation, which belongs to the Direct Marketing Association. “I don’t think it would be any different whether you were for-profit or nonprofit.” As an alternative, the National Wildlife Foundation, the Natural Resources Defense Council and other groups have created Catalogue Choice, a program that asks retailers to voluntarily stop sending catalogues to anyone who signs up for its free online service.

Yeah, but NWF and other enviro groups don’t publicize Catalogue Choice enough, I don’t think. AND, Hickey is being disingenuous, because that just covers catalogs, anyway, and not junk mail letters — i.e., enviro groups’ solicitation letters.

Oh, and while we’re on hypocrisy, groups like NWF could stuff sending Made in China gimmes as trinkets for subscription renewers. Not getting something from an American factory costs jobs, and given most Chinese factories, hurts the environment, too.
And the USPS solution of recycling bins in post offices doesn’t help people at home, and it is shutting the barn door after the horses are out.