SocraticGadfly: Warren (Elizabeth)
Showing posts with label Warren (Elizabeth). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Warren (Elizabeth). Show all posts

February 28, 2020

Real Cherokees vs Elizabeth Warren,
VERSUS Black Cherokees vs. Real Cherokees

I'd been threatening to do this on Twitter since Wednesday morning, when the issue of Warren and her American Indian false moves, plural popped up.

I've blogged and Tweeted about Warren plenty, from the exposure of her claims to American Indian ancestry to the stupidity of her doing a DNA test, then over-interpreting it while publicizing it, and all sorts of things in between.

But, I'd also referenced, on Twitter, black Cherokees from time to time.

And now, with Oklahoma's primary coming up on Tuesday, and folks behind a Medium site called "ewarrenisnotcherokee" writing her an open letter about these issues, it's time to fire back.

Since I'm a deliberate contrarian (I'm also at times a troll on Twitter, but columns like this are deliberate contrarian stuff, not trollery), this is right up my alley.

That's in part because the "real Cherokees" behind some of this stuff hoist themselves by their own petard, and most of them know the history they're swimming upstream against when they do this.

Let's start here:

While the average American thinks of Native Americans as a racial category, we are actually political groups.
So, that means you can't exclude black Cherokees on blood quantum grounds. At least not logically and non-hypocritically.

What? What? What? you may be telling yourself. Who are these "black Cherokees" and why have they been excluded from anything and why can't they be?

Well, Wikipedia calls it the "Cherokee freedmen controversy." I'll give you the nickel version.

Slave cabin kitchen, Chief Vann House.
The Cherokees, like others of the white-labeled "Five Civilized Tribes," practiced chattel slavery of Africans, just as did whites. (Set aside that many American Indian tribes, including the Cherokees, practiced other types of slavery before the Columbian contact. It was different in large part because slave status was not generally heritable.)

Chief Vann, the owner of the slaves who lived in that cabin, owned more than 100 by the year 1800. That put him in the top 10 percent of all slaveowners in the U.S. Son Joseph Vann had more than 200.

This also led to things like slave codes in Indian Territory and above all, in Cherokee lands there, just as in southern states. HNN has the details.

Of course, after 1865, this was illegal. These tribes had fought as co-belligerents with the Confederacy. Post-Civil War treaties generally required them to give their freed slaves tribal citizenship.

Starting in the 1980s, the Cherokee, along with Creek and Seminole, started tightening tribal rolls. See more here for "Black Indians" in general. (Specifically, in 1983, Black Cherokees lost voting rights because they were "not Cherokee by blood.")

The hypocrisy grows deeper with the Cherokees, because the efforts to exclude the freedmen used blood quantum as a tool. This process was completed under the (great, or "great") Chief Wilma Mankiller.

In a long and messy legal process with multiple parts that eventually moved from the Cherokee court system to the federal court system, the federal judiciary eventually restored freedmen's citizenship.

Here's my analogy, and where we're going to hear those petards further.

If the Cherokee (and other tribes) are sovereign nations, it is still and nonetheless under a certain aegis of the federal government. That would include the Fourteenth Amendment. As black slaves, sub specie slavo, were members of the Cherokee Nation, I think a correct extension of the Fourteenth Amendment supports the federal court ruling. Wiki also notes that the 1866 agreements, if the Cherokee want to play up the sovereign nation angle, have treaty status and there's an argument to be made that they can't be unilaterally broken. (OTOH, the USofA did just that regularly.)

Beyond that, as Wiki also notes, the Cherokee have willingly incorporated other people, whether individuals or groups, in the past.

This particular issue also seems to be fueling intra-Cherokee conflect between the Cherokee Nation, incorporated after people of the tribe got back full tribal election rights, and the old United Keetoowah Band. The UKB does use, and require, a blood quantum (one-quarter) but, at the same time, offers honorary associate memberships. And, to square the circle, a number of signatories of the open letter specifically identify as UKB members.

Cherokee Chief John Ross,
not a Cherokee if one
follows UKB blood quantum.
And, to throw the circle into total disorder, famed principal Chief John Ross wouldn't meet the one-quarter blood quantum.

In all of this, as some Cherokees also admit, there's a certain amount of racism. What? Racism by Indians? Yes, and click that "black Indians" link above for more, and it exists among Indian tribes who never had slaves, either.

And, given that the court ruling was just six years ago and final acceptance just three years ago, this is still an open issue.

So, I challenge every signatory of that letter to declare his or her personal stance on the Cherokee freedmen issue. That goes double for any hypocrite signatories identifying as UKB.

I've already asked one directly. On Twitter earlier, I responded to a tweet from a friend who had responded to Rebecca Nagle, a signatory of that letter:
Having since, via Memeorandum, seen that letter, I went back to the Tweet, rechecked the name, and of course, did a search down the page on Medium and found her name.

So, I Tweeted back to her, Dave and the other two:
And, I'll either have a response or not. As of the time this went live, I did not.

Yeah, Twitter's low signal-to-noise ratio means one shouldn't read too much into it, if Nagle doesn't respond.

On the other hand, I'm not just tagging her, I'm responding to part of a dialogue. 

So? If she doesn't say anything? Per the old proverb: "Silence gives assent."

Meanwhile, another signee, Santee Dakota Kim TallBear, writes a piece about this for High Country News. Hypocrisy from her for not mentioning the black Cherokees, and what I will only take as willful ignorance from HCN, and not the first time from it on identity politics. This one, with Instagram Influencers in the great, capitalist-invested outdoors, claiming they were being picked on because racism, not capitalism, was a doozy. (And HCN has never pulled back on it.)

Per this New Scientist profile piece about her, it appears the Santee, like the UKB Cherokee, use a blood quantum.

So, both among the Santee and among many Cherokee, we gots us a bunch of fricking hypocrisy.

I want to get back to pre-Contact versions of American Indian slavery, which continued post-Contact. In many such cases, slaves were eventually adopted into the tribe. Which means, of course, no blood quantum for the new adoptee.

I don't agree with Dawes-type termination, but all of this indicates that the federal government would be best behooved by having a uniform policy, not just on tribal membership, but on many other things, with all tribes/nations.

It's true that tribes have had to jump through hoops at times with the federal government, as the modern Cherokee Nation essentially replacing the UKB shows. Having grown up in the Southwest, I know this. That said, in a general sense, the feds have not forced specific methods of tribal membership determination on particular tribes except in cases like this where other legal issues were involved. Nor did Southerners, whether individuals or state governments, force the Cherokee or others of the "civilized tribes," whether qua tribes or qua individuals, to adopt chattel slavery in addition to older non-heritable versions of slavery.

Once again, I agree that fictitious appropriation of American Indian history — whether by Elizabeth Warren or someone else, and Cherokees or another tribe involved — is a real problem.

But, we need to talk about the actual forms of such history, not whitewashed or New Agey versions of such.

And, as for the racism? It's real. Growing up next to the Big Rez, I know plenty a Navajo expressed anti-black comments.

As for HCN? This is just another log on the smouldering fire of why I let my subscription lapse and have no current plans to renew it.

February 19, 2020

#WheresWarren?

That was a hashtag trending on Twitter Tuesday evening.

I've skewered the cults of Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Buttigieg. I've just skewered, period, both Gabbard and Marianne Williamson. I've even, going back to pre-2016, pointed out that while Bernie is the best Democrat, he's still well short of non-duopoly ideals.

But until now, I've not skewered the #StillWithering cult of Elizabeth Warren that much.

I have, along with many, many others, noted the stupidity of her DNA test — something that plays right to Trump's strength. As someone who grew up in the Southwest and is belatedly repenting of some of his father's comments about American Indians, I've commented on her stereotyping and such — while also using the opportunity to skewer Cherokees for their treatment of Black Cherokees.

But, I've not skewered her cult.

Until now, or rather, until last night on Twitter.

Let's dig in!

Starting with presidential history:
Can't go wrong there.

Next, speaking of Warrent, alleged media blackouts, DNA tests, and presidential odds?
That's about the truth. Got some Oklahoma Cherokee Moon Pie in one of those plagiarized cookbooks of yours?

Where's Warren? Well, he could be all sorts of places, but I just listed one of the ones he mentioned:
Ooowww WOOOO!

Well, speaking of President Warrens, besides the one of history, there's two would-be ones:
I'm surprised that he didn't pull the trigger in 2000. Did Clinton talk him out of it? Annette Benning? Past girlfriends?

Where's Warren? Spinning his webs in Nebraska.
Geico geckos, anybody?

Where's Warren? Trying to find a successor to the Expos!
As I said ...

Where's Warren? Six feet under but wishing he could get out, if immaterial souls existed:
Maybe Rob Manfred and John Roberts could be forcibly switched? Couldn't be any worse for either the Supreme Court or pro baseball, could it?

Where's Warren?
Damned if I didn't think of this before!

Where's Warren?

In reality? She's cringing in fear of doze meanie BernieBros, because Culinary 226 claimed somebody threw a chair at their Neera Tanden-loving secretary-treasurer or something. And, of course, nobody's proven anything beyond, as Bernie said, some Twitter yahoos saying something or another.

There is one good thing out of this. It may undercut some Berners' penchant for conspiracy thinking. Yes, many in the MSM may not be enamored of Sanders, and many of them may be ditching Warren on electability grounds. But, some of these things are just .... mistakes.

January 23, 2020

Texas Progressives tackle cheating, missing ballots
and the high cost of Texas living (no really)

This outpost of Texas Progressives reminds an in-state wingnut climate denialists that weather isn't climate, that any cold blasts you feel are normal, and that none of the above refutes the fact that we had the hottest decade on global record, with eight of the 10 hottest years on record, and that last year was the second hottest year on global record. (Even nutters at the Daily Mail admit it!)

Texas sports

SocraticGadfly did a non-political double dip on Texas sports, first talking about the glories of Luka Doncic, then noting why he, along with a majority of other non-Houstonians, thinks the cheating Astros got off light.

And, while we're here, from Twitter:
Yep, that's about right. (Yes, I know some, per Brains, are trying to claim this was just a riff on the roots of the two teams in the 1962 AFL title game. Lemme see, December 1962 was FIFTY-SEVEN years ago. About 2 percent of Twitter users are old enough to have been alive, let alone old enough to remember, the original game. It's butt-hurt jealousy tweeting, no matter how much of the actual history you can present, if you didn't actually experience it.)

Cort McMurray gets to the heart of the Astros' cheating scandal.


Texas politics

C.D. Hooks talks about "schadengreg" on his refugee rejection, which has since been blocked by a federal court.


Texana

Not quite Duke of Duval County George Parr and Landslide Lyndon, but a ballot box that went missing after a November bond vote in Midland ISD finally resurfaced and has now (finally???) flipped the bond vote to "no." And, really? Midland ISD said it needed not one but TWO new high schools? Why?

Trump's lies about wanting to do something about gun control are more fully exposed now that he is allowing 3D printable gun blueprints back online.

The Observer, after a series of stories on rural hospital closures and other country health problems, asked for reader stories. They got plenty. The solution, as I've said before? A British-style National Health System.

Blacks got less favorable coverage than women from Texas newspapers over protests.


Dallas

D Magazine notes that, while Dallas County DA John Creuzot appears committed to bail reform, the reality on the ground is a hot mess. The piece is a good read about Creuzot's efforts, his department's work on the Amber Guyger case and more. Will OK Jim Schuetze be kind enough to reference that Guyger part?

And, interesting indeed, on the civil justice side. Judge Tonya Barker wants to ramp up instructing civil juries, as part of their deliberation instructions, to work to avoid implicit bias.

Bizzy week for problems in Dallas. Due to environmental concerns and other things, the Byron Nelson is leaving Trinity Forest. The course's co-owner, who got a sweetheart deal from the city to build the course, admitted it wasn't the ideal spot. Nelson ticket sales confirmed that. Of further concern is that, although the city incentives required 25 percent of rounds to be offered to the public, ie, nonmembers, that wasn't actually happening.

The Dallas Observer also notes that the city just took it in the shorts on a First Amendment case re the city's panhandling ordinance.


The Metromess and Helltown ain't cheap

When transportation sprawl, and housing and other costs relative to pay are all factored in, both Dallas and Houston are LESS affordable than New York City. For whatever reason, even though the Metromess and Houston are almost dead even on these costs, Texas Monthly writes its story on the issue only about Houston. (Unless it does the rewrite I suggested.) Related? Contra former Houston mayor Annise Parker's past bragging about how Helltown would eventually pass Chicago? The Windy City is cheaper, per the first link. And that ignores the humidity, skeeters and flooding of Houston, along with the climate change that will exacerbate all. Do we file this under "Rick Perry's Texas Miracle" or "Greg Abbott's Texas Miracle"?

The Dallas Observer DID pick up on the Dallas angle.


Houston

Off the Kuff interviewed three Democratic candidates in HD138: Akilah Bacy, Josh Wallenstein, and Jenifer Pool.

John Coby wraps up the 2019 city of Houston finance reports.


National

Brains offers a wrap on the latest Dem Debate, especially its "she said, he said."

Therese Odell revisits Impeachment Corner.


Miscellaneous

The Great God Pan Is Dead revises its Best Comics of the Decade list.

The Lunch Tray looks at a new effort to eliminate "lunch shaming".

September 20, 2019

Dems2020: Candidates ranked by cult level

We had stereotypical (and often overblown by the media, but not necessarily always overblown) Berniebros in 2016. With a crowded Democratic field this year, what levels of cultic behavior do we have among followers of different candidates this year? Conspiracy thinking and refusal to listen to actual facts are my main two criteria.

Tulsi Gabbard's fans are No. 1 with a bullet. They're so bad that one of them claimed all the facts in my original Tulsi Kool-Aid piece were not facts because they weren't about her Congressional votes. Many others simply refused to read. Then, after one of them called "black" as "white" on her anti-BDS vote without even prompting, having already invented the #TulsiTwerkers hashtag, I did a separate piece about the cult level. And it IS a cult, just as much as the cult of the guru Tulsi herself follows. (She hasn't answered Tweets about India's putting Kashmir under martial law, either.)

And, no, she's not "the peace candidate," either.

Second? Mayor Pete, or Mary Pete. As I said in writing him up, if he weren't gay, he wouldn't have this following. Don't believe me? Dale Peck, gay himself, said so for New Republic, in a piece that got so many people pissed off it "had to be" hauled down, but is still archived. The same SJW type folks in and around the LGBTQ world were part of why it was hauled down, but not the only reason. And, no, SJW folks, starting with the fact that Peck himself is gay, it's not anti-gay. And other gays also said it was not homophobic. And, thus, within at least the SJW precincts of the LGBTQ, Mary Pete has a definite cult following, enough to allegedly send Peck death threats. And, although written as a gay-world callout, and with the rudeness deliberate, Mayor "Gays are more diverse than blacks in South Bend" was also called out from the straight side not just by me, but by Slate.

Third? The man who isn't even a presidential candidate, Mike Gravel. Hey, cultists? He openly admitted he was not a candidate (and has dropped out of being even a quasi candidate), but that he just wants a spot in a debate and then he'll exit. GFY any of you attacking the mainstream media for reporting the actual facts. Besides, he's the one open 9/11 falser among actual or fake candidates. (Tulsi might be an under-the-radar one, but that would actually let Mooslims off the hook; she's far more likely to be a Seth Rich conspiracy theorist.) Speaking of, Gravel endorsed Tulsi and Bernie both, then had the alt-Illuminati sector of Twitter (Tulsi or Bust? Tulsi or Bernie or Trump?) parsing Gravel vs. Gravel's non-campaign team and who was endorsing whom. I think Gravel was endorsing Tulsi (shock) and his team was endorsing Bernie as PR. Since then, Gravel has weighed in further, moving outside the duopoly to tell people that they should help Howie Hawkins with Green Party ballot access. I agree, Howie, and Gravel is a more real antiwar politico than Gabbard or Sanders. But don't get in too tight of an embrace with him or some followers.

Fourth? Sorry, Sandernistas, or whatever, but it is the Berniecrats. You're up with the Peteys at times in conspiracy thinking level. Yes, sometimes, the MSM may be targeting him, and Jacobin singles out MSNBC (and it seems rightly so, including Horse Pee-er, I mean Hoarse Whisperer involved) but on other things? Madcow had him dead to rights on guns and many Berners haven't yet fully faced that. Others, though he sounds more peaceable than in the past, have yet to address his own degrees of military Keynesianism for F-35s. (And pulling up the Bernie of 30 years ago, and per Seven Days in Vermont with Bernie on guns as Just.Another.Politician.™, and pretending he's remained static? Uhh, no. Jacobin, as with Liza Featherstone throwing shade at other candidates' families while carefully writing around Bernie's nepotism via Jane, as I note here, is among major promotors of his cult.

Fifth? I would say Elizabeth Warren, but she has a plan for that, too, surely. This cult will surely grow as Nick Kristof earlier this month showed he's a fake pergressive even within the duopoly world with calls for a Warren-Mary Pete ticket and nary a mention of Bernie. At places like Lawyers, Guns and Money, otherwise known to me as The New Daily Kos, the cult factor is high.

Beto? He had a cult nine months ago. He had remnants of one six months ago. He has none now. Or so I thought when I started this a week or so ago. But now? There are second acts indeed in politics. He still doesn't have any big cult, but the guns issue, complete with Meghan McCain stupidity, has revived him.

Marianne Williamson has the orb-ish goofers on Reddit, but that's not a cult, it's a parody of one.

March 14, 2019

Beto2020 — the Kool-Aid is poured
and many are chugging it (newly updated)

The amount of Kool-Aid that's already being poured for a presidential run for ConservaDem Beto O'Rourke is mind-boggling. So is the amount of people — including Texans who I thought were either better thinkers than that or better informed than that — who are willfully drinking.

Update, March 14, as the idiocy level around Beto's loss to Ted Cruz as he runs for president has hit astronomical levels.

Hey, both non-Texans and Texans who should know better?

Beto spent $69 million to lose to Ted Cruz by THREE percentage points.

Know what?


Mike Collier spent about $68 million less to lose to Dan Patrick by just FIVE percentage points, in the lieutenant governor's race.


Kim Olson spent about $68.5 million less to lose to Sid Miller by just FIVE percentage points in the ag commissioner's race.


So, Robert Francis O'Rourke spent about $34 million a percentage point.


Now, Beto may have driven some of the turnout that helped them. But not all of it. Urban parts of Texas have been shifting for years. Dallas County went almost entirely blue in partisan county-level races way back in 2006. Harris County (Houston) had been shifting for sometime before officially tipping slightly blue last year. Bexar County (San Antonio) lags a little further behind, and Tarrant County (Fort Worth) is further back, but the GOP no longer has a full stranglehold in those places.

And, a friendly reminder that R.F. O'Rourke is STILL schwaffling on single payer. Despite Sema Hernandez and fanboys like Scap claiming otherwise. A quick transcript of a March 14 Iowa radio interview.


A few thoughts:

1. Were I voting in the 2020 primary (let's assume I am still in Tex-ass and that I figure Greens have no chance of a successful ballot access petition) while Bernie Sanders' age (if he runs again) would concern me, I would vote him over Beto in a heartbeat. Per what I have seen on Effbook, Beto as a younger, if not totally progressive, than allegedly not ConservaDem, option to Bernie, is nonsense.

2. Among the national neoliberal chattering class (Neera Tanden at Center for American Progress et al) Beto is clearly taking more shape as a stop-Bernie possibility.

2A. Both the 1 and 2 camps tout "winnability." In other words, "lesser evilism." Currently, that's more a lesser evilism from ignorance than willfulness in Camp 1, but it's willfulness more than ignorance in Camp 2.

3. It is true that, because of his near success against Havana Ted Cruz, that wingers and fellow travelers fear him. As I've noted, two such fellow travelers have lied in claiming that Beto is a single-payer guy as part of claiming he ran a bad campaign. The lie is obviously a placeholder to extend nationally Havana Ted's smear. The bad campaign claim is shown to be untrue by the fact that, while he lost, Beto finished closer to Havana Ted than the best poll predictions. (Per Real Clear Politics, only one outlying Emerson poll showed a race closer than 3 percentage points and none ever showed O'Rourke with a lead.)

4. In light of Point 2, while Beto will face a few "takedown" pieces if he leans more toward running, he'll also get plenty of national media puff pieces like he did this year. After all, John Nichols at The Nation showed his hackery by writing a puff piece on someone who not only is not a DSA rose, but actually was non-endorsed by some local chapters of Our Revolution. Anne Helen Peterson's gushing for BuzzFeed is a bit more forgivable on account of biased laziness; Nichols knows better, or at a minimum, he has a history and body of work that shows he should know better.

4A. For at least some of the people in Point 4 writing puff pieces, or attacking those like David Sirota, or little old me further down the list, as with people on Book of Face, the lesser evilism claim of "winnability" will get touted, and the fear of wingers I list in No. 3 will get cited as proof of that.

Meanwhile, Beto, obviously taking a page from Sanders getting a bad rap, has already met with both Dear Leader and Al Sharpton.

That said, there's other Kool-Aid already out there besides Beto.

Kamela Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand are both being image-buffed. Donut Twitter will probably throw both out as women along with complaints that Bernie is anti-woman. Women's issues will remain important, though the rough edges of MeToo will fade in a year.

Anyway, I vote based on foreign as well as domestic policy.

Who is, say, under 65, or better yet, under 60, three-quarters or more as progressive on domestic policy in Dem ranks as Bernie, and even close to him on foreign policy? No Democrat that I see. Elizabeth Warren is over 65, self-damaged goods in some ways, and already criticizing of BDS.

That said, no "name," presidential-aspirant Democrats are great on foreign policy. Bernie's the best of a bad lot. Beyond being iffy himself on BDS, he's dabbled in the collusion Kool-Aid, speaking of that beverage. And, an alleged Texas socialist at Splinter claims its best he should step aside and try to nudge Warren leftward. Jacobin just torpedoed that. And, don't claim Tulsi Gabbard, who remains an Islamophobe as well as a friend of India's semi-fascist BJP and more fully fascist RSS.

Riffing on David's comment:

Dan Derozier, Houston DSA elections committee chair, in a Chronicle-run retrospective, notes clearly that Beto stood for Beto and little else. So true. Even worse than Obama, he left little "apparatus" to build on. (Derozier dodges Beto's stance, or lack thereof, on specific positions, though. Beto is just criticized as a values-free campaigner without noting WHAT values he was free of. I.e., his dodges on single-payer aren't specifically mentioned. Per that, I wonder if he's trying to work intra-DSA factions on Betomania.)

==

This piece, like my original ConservaDem piece, will get updates as warranted.

Dec. 23, 2018: Jonathan Allen and Alex Seitz-Wald, the former long known as a semi-lazy "inside baseball" political writer and the second as simply a hack, have written an opinion piece masquerading as a news story attacking David Sirota above all as representative of a "Bernie-world" move against Beto. I set them straight, or offered to set themselves straight by noting my ConservaDem piece began nine months ago, long before David uttered a word about Beto, among other things, and that as a Green-leaner, I'm not part of any "Bernie-world."

Jan. 3, 2019: David Brock of Mindless Mullets for America is doing the same.

March 08, 2019

2020 Democratic prez race on social media:
Some Berners go conspiracy theory route

Conspiracy thinking? The claims that Amy Klobuchar, Jay Inslee or other candidates, who might indeed be "favorite son/daughter" types and little more than that could well be true. The claims by any progressives that they're nothing other than puppets of the Democratic establishment, maybe Joe Biden, maybe even Hillary Clinton? Sounds kind of far-fetched.

No, actually, it sounds very far-fetched. It sounds like something as far-fetched as Jared Beck's poorly written brief for his DNC fraud lawsuit filing.

And, it WAS poorly written.

Seriously:
Lemme see.

As of the date that Tweet was posted? Bennet had not entered the race. Nor had Brown. Nor Beto. Brown and O'Rourke had been speculated about months ago. And, everybody who's anybody knows that Bennett is a lightweight.

If you want to be all in on the nuttery, mention Buttigieg, as he's from Indiana, Ojeda from West Virginia not getting the message to stay in the race, and others. And, Rob, you also omitted Tulsi Gabbard. I guess Hawaii isn't large enough in delegates to count? Or West Viriginia? But, Buttigieg's Indiana is as big as both combined, or roughly so.

And, it's not that these claimers in some cases aren't left of center — within the Democratic party. But, that's it. You know, a fair chunk of Berners earn a fair chunk of scorn, setting aside Donut Twitter fallacious claims.

I personally would love a Democratic candidate from every one of the 49 states not named Vermont. I'll settle for the 25 largest or so.

In my 2020 Dem presidential candidates roundup, I mentioned the possibility of Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley. But, also from Oregon? Gov. Kate Brown; checks identity boxes as bisexual. There's one. Kyrsten Sinema from Arizona? Ditto on the identity stuff. We've already got John Delaney from Maryland. Bob Casey from Pennsylvania? Pro-life Dem to monkey-wrench. Tammy Baldwin from Wisconsin? Either Tammy Duckworth (veterans vote, bit of establishment ties) or ΓΌber-establishment Dick Durbin from Illinois? Debbie Stabenow from Michigan? Get the women candidates in there!

Sorry, no Dem senators from North Carolina, Georgia or Florida.

So, Debbie Wasserman Schultz from Florida to make Berners' heads explode, right? Or, Andrew Gillum as black, and someone who tried to have one foot in the Berner world, but not both.

Stacey Abrams, still fresh in the mind, in Georgia.

Roy Cooper as governor of North Carolina.

I did, though, mention Terry McAuliffe from Virginia, for another larger state.

And Rob forgot ConservaDem rep Tim Ryan from Ohio. Guess he HAS TO jump in since Sherrod Brown is officially out. Ditto for Kate Brown, with Jeff Merkley out. And, did Sherrod Brown and Merkley not get "The Message™" from the Hilldebergers or whomever is controlling this cabal?

There you go, conspiracy-minded subset of Berners.

THAT WAS FUN!

Let's top this off.

Dancing with the Schultz just sent me my check from the Democratic National Committee, co-paid by the Hillary 2020 campaign. But, since the DNC was hacked by Russia, AND, I'm a Green, representative of a party manipulated by Russia as "we all know," you know where that check really came from.

==

Update, Aug. 27: OTOH, the idea that the MSM may be conspiring against Sanders in some way, fueled by "insider" #Hillbot Tweeters such as Horse Pee-er, I mean Hoarse Whisperer, seems very true.

March 06, 2019

Pandering pink prez candidates

I said, in my original post with my first evaluations of 2020 Democratic presidential candidates and their chances, that at some point, I was going to start evaluating campaign websites. Consider this a first installment on that, about one specific issue.

Per the header, it's a subtake.

It's checking declared women candidates to see how much pandering they do with the use of pink as a color. Links below are to campaign websites.

Kirsten Gillibrand of #MeToo fame in the Senate was bad when she launched and remains bad today. Given her pivot against Al Franken is part of what propelled her into the race, the hypocrisy level is high. But, from Gillibrand, not shocking. Give her an F here. The pandering is simply blatant, when large chunks of the website are black-and-white, except for the pink. That said, Gillibrand comes near to, if not into, SJW territory on this; I believe she supports "Mattress Girl" Emma Sulkowicz uncritically.

New Age guru Marianne Williamson appears to be a fairly close second. If not for that, her website would get some kudos for a sketch drawing of her, not a photo, up front, and some creative font usage. But, no ... as is, still too pandering. C-minus.

Kamala Harris is running third; she was a bit worse, but it looks like she's toned some things down. C for now; would have been D-plus a few weeks back.

Given her beer on Instagram video, I'm surprised in a sense but not in others. Elizabeth Warren appears largely pander-free. B-plus.

And, I initially forgot Amy Klobuchar. While she sux in other ways, she appears to be pander-free on this issue on her website. The blazer she wears in one picture is salmon, not pink, and I'm pretty sure the young girl in the pink dress is dressed that way by her choice. So, a straight A on this particular subissue.

And, I realized I also forgot Tulsi Gabbard! (Derp.) She too gets an A for no pandering. And, among these candidates, at least, she's definitely the most visuals-heavy. I might rank hers as the best overall website by design standards in this group.

And, Klobuchar and Gabbard may not have stuck out for me precisely because of the lack of pandering.

(This is another reason to be glad Hillary Clinton decided not to run; she's probably use pink as the backdrop for her whole damned website.)

January 12, 2019

Ted Rall hits one of his more wrong moments on minimum wage

Besides not fully understanding the First Amendment (charitable version) or being a sort of butt-hurt solipsist (less charitable but more realistic version, based on a long past history of his) in his suit against the LA Times for canning him, petulancy that is now nearly 18 years old (go here for my take on Popehat's takedown), Ted Rall has other moments a-plenty of flat-out wrongness about American issues.

(Notably, the cluelessness is more often about domestic issues. When he takes controversial stands on foreign policy, he's relatively more likely to be right. Not that that means a whole lot.)

His latest? Per the above cartoon? Saying the US "really" should have a $25/hour minimum wage, or "really really" should have one of $80 an hour. Ted has since doubled down on the BS in his most recent syndicated column.
According to ... ShadowStats.com [no actual link to individual piece by Ted] $22 in 2013 comes to at least $35 today.
It does not, except in such a seemingly febrile mind. The idea that an actual inflation rate, per CPI (and not core CPI) which has not gone over 2.1 percent anywhere in the 2014-18 period and had an average during that time of just 1.52 percent, is "really" 10 percent is bullshit. It's like claiming that not only is the Department of Labor's official unemployment rate of 3.9 percent on the U-3 numbers is wrong (and it is), but that the U-6 numbers of 7.6 percent are also wrong, and the "real" unemployment in the US is 15 percent or more.

So, IF I accept Ted's claim that we "really" (that's going in scare quotes every time now, Ted) "should" (ditto) have had a minimum wage of $22 an hour in 2013, your $35 an hour in 2019 still doesn't follow. Per actual CPI, that minimum wage should be $23.71. Even if you claim the CPI is wrong by 100 percent? That minimum wage should still be just $25.44.

His Gollum-precious ShadowStats, to be a bit more generous, claimed an inflation rate of almost 10 percent in 2011, Ted. That's just triple the official CPI for the year of 3.0 percent. So, let's do this once more, tripling the CPI for each year of 2014, normal compounding (unless Ted has some "shadow compounding" to pull out of somewhere) and see what we have.

We still "really" only get up to $27.47.

At this point, Ted is clearly, from my perspective, pulling numbers out of either thin air or his ass. Your choice as to which, Ted. Oh, and to punk and troll Ted just a bit more, your precious ShadowStats is behind a capitalist paywall. Oh, you running dog capitalist lackey.

Speaking of? Ted, if you "really" cared about minimum wage and related employee issues, you wouldn't have donations to you laundered through a charity with heavy ties to USPIRG and to Fund for the Public Interest, which has been successfully (not SLAPP-reverse failed) sued multiple times for employment law violations. And yes, Ted and fanbois, your final stop laundromat, Sustainable Markets Foundation, has just such connections. Not to mention having the word "markets" in its title.

I've broken up my Twitter thread related to his individual cartoon about his stupidity into individual tweets, with bits of commentary in between.
Wishes and reality are two different things, Ted, just as your LA Times suit has shown. I won't repeat old jokes about having one thing in one hand and another in the other.
Also not the first or last time she's been wrong. That said, on this particular issue, per her past, she should know better than Ted for a reason I'll note below.
I am going to post that chart I am talking about, to give us a clear visual.

Seems pretty clear to me, at least.

We should also note that the web post I linked to cites the Economic Policy Institute for some of its discussion. The EPI bats left of center on economic issues in general, so don't claim that I am citing some sort of wingnut piece. 

Tis true that one's a few years old, but here's a table that runs through 2018 that says the same.

Next?
We are now at the point where Ted is simply phoning it in.
And, that's the refudiation, nickel version, to Ted phoning it in.
Actually, not true, but the Tweet stays, to tie in with my point above.

Warren, of course, grew up in small-town Oklahoma, which means that on the sociological side, she has even less excuse than Rall for such uninformed blather.

My stance comes in this last tweet:
I don't know exactly how Oregon defines urban, suburban and rural in its law. Here in Texas, would Collin County be urban or suburban? Grayson County or Hunt Count suburban or rural? The idea is correct in general, though.

After we get something like that nationally? We then, per that table and graph above, institute a COLA. I faulted Nancy Pelosi for not doing that when she and her House Dems last raised the minimum wage.

As for Rall? In this case, in my opinion, it's not "just" the mix of laziness and willfulness that characterizes many of his columns, as well as both the content and drawing style of his cartoons.

I personally can't see this one as anything but deliberate lying. The statistics are out there in factual form, not Rall's distorted versions.

That's only increased by Rall's response on Twitter that he spends plenty of time in small town America. Then, in addition to telling apparent lies about the minimum wage, he doesn't actually care about small-town America, I guess. He's either exaggerating downward the size of places he's visited or else engaged in other exaggeration. Given his clear misstatements on the actuality of the minimum wage, whatever the exaggeration, IMO it's surely deliberate, though.

The per-capital income for the entire state of Mississippi is about $23,000, Median HOUSEHOLD income is about $43,000, less than one person working full time at $22/hour, Ted. So, if you "really" spend a lot of time in small-town America, you haven't "really" learned anything about "real" economic stats you "should" know.

In other words? Ted, I don't trust you. And others who do, the remaining fanboys, shouldn't.

(And, speaking of, per your suit against the LA Times? THIS is why they don't carry you any more. Idiotic mendacities and made-up information.)

Let's look at his past, too.

Among Ted's other larger mistakes in both domestic and foreign affairs?

The biggest was his whopper claiming Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 actually landed safe and sound in Kazakhstan, which he doubled down on for some time.

Then there was claiming Glenn Greenwald is a liberal. (He's become more librul on some things, but like Mark Ames and others, I consider him a libertarian just like his boss, Omidyar.)

Other ideas of his, which sounded deeply different at the time just sound dumb now. Like drafting cops. (That would probably also be unconstitutional, or very close to it. Certainly a violation of the spirit of the 13th Amendment.)

I used to halfway agree with his ideas on abortion, but have moved away from that now. Semantically, he's probably wrong, if he's going to stick that route, on using "murder" rather than "manslaughter" in many such cases. "Human life" may not be defined — or definable — as starkly as he would have it, either.

Trivialization by hyperbole is what he does here, is perhaps the best way to explain it.

Or else, gotcha by outrageous statement, like some of his editorial cartoons.

Basically, because he had, pre-9/11, traveled to Afghanistan as well as Pakistan, and had good insights overall on invading Afghanistan, and because he pissed off Hillbots already in 2008, I read him fairly credulously until the Flight 370 and Greenwald. The flight issue, and his stubbornness revealed on it, showed a new side. Then, per the Popehat link up top, I learned a lot more about him in comments there.

(I'm also in the middle of reading a book about pre 9/11 travels to Afghanistan that is almost certainly more realistic than whatever Rall wrote.)

Finally, if Warren made such idiotic claims, then, as a member of the really reality-based community, I see that as another strike against her presidential campaign. (Hiring Hillary Clinton's 2016 communications team would be another.)

==

This reminds me — once or twice a year I do a blog post when I do a major blogroll cleanup. Maybe I need to do one explaining those who I keep, even or especially when I disagree with them a fair amount.

January 11, 2019

Early 2020 Democratic presidential oddsmaking, desirability

Yeah, yeah.

On one hand, it's way too early for this, amirite?

(Updated regularly, most recently, March 4. Updates include changes in "like factor" and more.)

I am right, per John Dickerson:
Presidential hopefuls used to declare their candidacy in a single speech; now the process is drawn out with peekaboo hints, social-media announcements that lead to explorations, and talk-show teases. It’s like an Advent calendar, but no one gets a square of chocolate.
On the other hand, when a bland neoliberal Hispanic former mayor and former Obama cabinet backbencher named Julian Castro actually thinks he has a shot, no, not too early.

So, three things.

First, I'll give you oddsmaking.

Second, I'll give you his or her likely target audience.

Third, as a Green-leaner, I'll give a letter grade based on my take on the acceptability of their political stances and related issues.

Note: Odds may go over 100 percent total because they would change in reality with candidates dropping out, etc.

Note 2: I have written in-depth takes on selected candidates and will do more in the future. Where available, they're linked.

Note 3: A candidate's name in red means they've officially entered the race. A strike-through means they're officially out.

Note 4: I will also do one or more pieces rating candidates' websites. The first, rating women in the race by how pandering to women's gender stereotypes the websites are, is here.

And, since he liked mine, Gaius at Down with Tyranny also has a ratings/oddsmaking.

(June 29, 2019: Here's my take on winners and losers from the first pair of Democratic debates.)

So, let's start, with ...

Julian Castro! [Officially declared candidates, and those with official exploratory committees are in red.] Odds: 0.1 percent. Target: People with the last name of Castro. Like factor: D. (Laughingly, Nate Silver calls Castro "a major candidate."

(Note: On people with perceived higher odds, I'll give more of a breakout. At least as much as for Julian in the paragraph above.) And so, in no particular further order ...

Joe Biden: Odds 10 percent. (Don't overestimate those early Iowa polls.) Biden has the pluses of being a better establishmentarian candidate than Hillary Clinton and ties to the Obama coattails, and may be seen as more progressive than is actually true. With both her and Bloomberg out, too, he's the only "establishmentarian" heavy hitter left. Minuses are being almost as old as Bernie Sanders, being gaffe-prone, being Sen-MBNA on bankruptcy tightening 15 years ago, and lots of #MeToo baggage beginning with but not limited to the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings. Target: DNC establishment and DNC superdelegates if a brokered convention happens. Like factor: D-minus.

Side observation, now that JoePa is in. Who's hurt? Probably Booker and Harris, to the degree they're seen as more "establishmentarian" than Sanders and Warren. Also, the more conservative young guns trio of Robert Francis Beto! O'Rourke, Mayor Pete and Mayor Julian.

Howard Schultz is also hurt, at least as a Dem candidate. He'll have to go the indy route now if he wants in.

Kamala Harris: Odds 12 percent. Has the pluses of being a minority and a woman both, especially in the MeToo era. Has baggage of outright ConservaDem past on criminal justice issues as Cal AG and playing footsie with Mnuchin outlet on banksters and Great Recession. Has advantage of limited Senate legislation paper trail. Go here for a good roundup of everything about Kamala the Cop; take some of the non-Cop bullet points with a grain of salt. Target: Slightly more liberal Cory Booker voters. Or is it the other way around? Like factor: C-minus and falling, in part due to Donut Twitter rallying to her. Her hypocrisy on smoking pot while later busting kids for it, as well as the lie about smoking pot to Tupac 7 years before his first album came out open her to further hypocrisy charges as well as pandering ones.)

Cory Booker: Odds 7 percent. Has pluses of being a minority. Has baggage of footsie with Big Pharma, of many "poseur" stances (he's a weathervane in a field filled with them), and lack of a Senate legislation paper trail for his length of time in office. Target: Slightly more conservative Kamala Harris voters. Or is it the other way around? Is working on "what to run for" issue by getting New Jersey Legislature to consider an "LBJ bill" so he can also file for Senate re-election. Like factor: D-minus, but perhaps moved up to a straight D.

Robert Francis O'Rourke: Odds: 10 percent. (And dropping as of Feb. 15. While he has some national name recognition, he's not Bernie Sanders, so he can't play Hamlet much longer.) Pluses include recent Senate campaign, Beltway stenos and even more, Beltway neoliberal think tanks rallying to him and vague "winnability" issue. Minusus include issue-free Senate campaign being exposed along with ConservaDem House record. Target: White Obamiacs from 2008 and 2012. Like factor: D-minus. (Per Stephen Young, expect an announcement by the end of January. And, Stephen was wrong, in part because Beto actually was tracing ancestral roots and never went to Iowa. Stay tuned.)

There's a lot of people who are already drinking his Kool-Aid, which started two months ago. Many doing so without even knowing he's a ConservaDem. The Twitter memes about "tough choice between Beto and Bernie" are ridiculously clueless.

I partially blame political ladder-climber Sema Hernandez for endorsing him last August even though he never did unequivocally endorse single-payer and even though there were plenty of other reasons to still see him as a ConservaDem.

Kirsten Gillibrand: Odds: 12 percent. Pluses include MeToo actions to the degree they were genuine and some actual legislation history. Plus/minus is "bipartisanship." Minuses include seemingly unsavory nature of pushing Al Franken out the door and ConservaDem past, especially on guns. Target: Conservative wing of 2016 Sanders voters plus women in general. Like factor: D.

Bernie Sanders: Odds: 16 percent. Pluses include previous campaign history, plus him moving slightly leftward again on foreign policy. (Wake me up a year from now re Israel and BDS issues, as well as the Venezuela coup.) Minuses include the downside of previous campaign history, plus no "Hillary voted for Iraq and spoke to Goldman Sachs" easy campaign targets. Minuses from a Green POV include that he's still way too much of a military Keynesian. Additional baggage of age. See my posts about him and F-35s. Additional baggage for some Dems of being a white male. Like factor: B-minus. (I'm not grading on a curve, but you can compare his grade with other Dems.) That said, he IS a Dem. See this new piece. Or click the Bernie tag below.

Sherrod Brown: Odds: 9 percent. Pluses include being from the Midwest, perception as a kinder, gentler Bernie Sanders and related matters. Minuses include no hot single issues from his Senate time, long enough for him to have developed one, and being more Fauxgressive than Progressive. Like factor: C-minus.

Michael Bloomberg: Odds: 1 percent. (This odds is as a Democrat only; I in no way rule out him making an independent run in the general election — even if he's chided Howard Schultz for thinking of that.) Political, if not real, pluses include perceived liberalism, especially on climate and environment through things such as the soda tax, claims to appeal to centrist independents in general election. Minuses include bankster background and everything related. Target: Democratic establishment, slightly more conservative Howard Schultz voters. Like factor? Hell,. F.

Howard Schultz: (In as independent, theoretically. Schwaffling after his annoucement.) Odds 1 percent. Pluses include perceived liberalism, history of Starbucks, connections with Starbucks patrons. Minuses include downside of Starbucks history, especially with black patrons. Target: Dem establishment, slightly more liberal Michael Bloomberg voters. Like factor: D and dropping like a fricking rock. (I had colored him red, but given the amount of nuancing he was doing 48 hours after his 60 Minutes, he's back in black.)

Elizabeth Warren: Odds 8 percent. Pluses? A woman in the MeToo era, perceived as liberal to left-liberal economically. Minuses include her Cherokee Nation baggage, that she's not as liberal on as many things as believed and that she's anti-BDS. Also, per her "I'm having a beer" NYE Instagram video, a too-transparent sense of earnestness, possibly coupled with a too-transparent sense of pandering to Millennials with that as an Instagram rather than Facebook video. Additional minus is that she reportedly has hired comms staff from Hillary 2016. Politically unastute plus they were hacks. Like factor? C-minus (and dropping with the Hillary news). Thanks to Daily Wire or whoever gave that graphic to somebody connected to Trump, who then Tweeted it.

Steve Bullock: Odds: 3 percent. Pluses include being a governor, and thus an executive and also thus, no Senate paper trail. Minuses start with being a moderate white male. Target: New Dems in general, and specifically, ones who want to target the heartland, and slightly more conservative John Hickenlooper candidates. Does have a potent issue on campaign finance, but in a year of "no PACs" candidates, could be drowned out. Like factor: C. Now in, and the late start means his odds are probably less than 3 percent.

John Hickenlooper: Odds: 4 percent. Pluses include being a governor of a larger, more purplish state than Montana, and thus an executive and also thus, no Senate paper trail. Minuses are more prominent than Bullock's and include his in-the-tank support for fracking, plus his 2008 DNC actions while Denver mayor for those with longer memories. Target: New Dems in general, and specifically, ones who want to target the heartland, and slightly more liberal Steve Bullock voters. Like factor: D-minus.

John Delaney: Odds: Less than Julian Castro. Pluses besides being first to file? None. Minusus? Bland older white guy from exurban Congressional district. Plus/minus: Looks like a bald, blander Will Ferrell. Target: Cabinet position in next Dem presidency and staying in longer than Julian Castro. Like factor: Not even registered. But, the fact that he's worth at least $92M is registered.

Jay Inslee: Odds: 9 percent. Pluses include being a governor and one with more liberal stances on climate issues than Bullock or Hickenlooper. Plugged in more than either of them as well. Minuses include relatively unknown level to many Democrats, being from a fairly "safe" state and not a huge record. Like factor: C.

Tim Ryan: Odds: 3 percent Less than Pete Buttigieg. Pluses include perception of willingness to take on House Dem establishment. Minuses will include his Blue Dog-ish record and trying to run from the House, as well as "Mayor Pete" beating him to the punch. Not to mention he's a New Ager lite. Like factor: D.

Tulsi Gabbard: Odds: 4 percent. Political pluses (note that caveat) include Sanders connections, especially if he does not run, a Kool-Aid stronger than Beto's, perhaps, and definite support from people like H.A. Goodman who haven't done the full Bernie-to-Trump but are definitely the conservative faction of BernieBros. General pluses are willingness to take on Dem establishment. Minuses are basically everything I've said above under political pluses plus the fact she still, Kool-Aid drinkers aside, appears to back Islamophobia, and that she's as much a political re-inventor as Trump. That's all true, and I've blogged about her Hindu nationalist fascist bromance three full years ago, and now, like Beto, about her Kool-Aid drinkers plus Kool-Aid brewer Michael Tracey. Targets: The conservative portion of the Sanders movement. Like factor: D-plus.

Jeff Merkley: Odds: 3 percent. Pluses include being a general progressive for a Democrat and good on climate change in particular. Minuses include being no more than a typical progressive Dem on foreign policy. Target: Sanders voters. Like factor: C-plus.

Hillary Clinton: Odds: 2 percent. (Yes, that high.) Pluses include support of think tanks, Donut Twitter, diehard PUMAs, etc. Minuses include being Hillary Clinton and her past campaign baggage, both 2008 primaries and 2016 general. Additional baggage of age. Target: 2016 Hillary Clinton voters plus a few more voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Like factor: F-minus.

Amy Klobuchar: Odds: 1 percent. Pluses? Lemme think. Minuses would be being behind two or three other women senators and being older than two of them, as well as being seen as less progressive than all three. Target: Hillary Clinton backers who wouldn't vote for one of those other women, along with masochistic lower-level white collar employees who love sadistic bosses. Like factor: D.

Terry McAuliffe: Odds: More than Julian Castro and John Delaney, less than anybody else. Pluses: Was a governor. Minuses: Way too much personal political baggage plus way too much Clintonista baggage. Target audience: Clintonistas.

Marianne Williamson: Odds: Not a ghost of a chance or even a New Agey ghost of a chance. (I'd forgotten that there had been noises about her until she was mentioned on someone else's blog. But she even has an exploratory committee and website.) Pluses: Not a politician. She has, though, made extensive donations, mainly to progressive Dems but also to ConservaDems like Jon Ossoff and Doug Jones. "Peace" imagery. Minuses: All her baggage as a New Age nutter. Target audience: People who think "A Course in Miracles" is real. Like factor: Probably on the non-New Agey angle, a B-minus; including it, a D-minus. Her campaign contributions do NOT include the Green Party, but do include the Natural Law Party. Nuff ced.

Yes, this is longer than for most candidates, but because, like Gabbard, she flies under the radar, and some of her positions are good. My full take is now up.

VANITY CANDIDATES I DIDN'T ORIGINALLY LIST

(That's not to say there aren't vanity candidates on the list already.)

Mayor Ballgag or Pete the Budgie, I mean South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg aka The Maltese Cross to Bear: Odds: The same exact percentage of Julian Castro's odds as South Bend's population is of San Antonio's. Target audience: The future Dem president who gives him a Cabinet seat/Indiana Dem Senate voters. Like factor: D-minus; worked for management vulture McKinsey for three years, for doorknob's sake. Has zero real accomplishments at South Bend and embroiled city in racial issues. No, seriously. Wikipedia. Here's more reasons, with a blog post written just to "out" Beto-Lite, why you shouldn't vote for him.

Eric Swalwell: Yes, a favorite of the collusion-heavy wing of Donut Twitter is hoping he runs. And he reportedly is giving it a thought or four. He's now in, and running on gunz control, realizing post-Mueller Report that collusion goes nowhere. He's Donut Twitter and a bigger vanity candidate than Pete Ballgag with even less to be vain about.

==

Further vanity candidates entering after May 15, and not among early speculation, are listed below, simply by name, with no assessment, because they ain't got shit on chances:
Bill de Blasio
???

Among actual or potential candidates with more of a chance, how do they affect each other? Brown is possibly the main beneficiary of Sanders not running, if Brown does. Gabbard is second (for now) and Warren a distant third. Bullock and Hickenlooper obviously affect each other; both affect and are affected by Inslee to a lesser extent. Booker and Harris, with both being minority candidates, and in somewhat similar political silos, affect each other. Gillibrand interplays with Warren and Harris, and Klobuchar if she runs, and possibly also with Sanders.

Booker and Harris are both in, of course. Speculation in my corner of Twitter thinks Booker drops back out first.

If O'Rourke runs, he probably benefits most from Booker, the only other younger charismatic male in the race, dropping out. Not sure who benefits most if Robert Francis runs then drops out.

The winnowing of these candidates will start with the first official debate in June, which will have a 20-candidate cutoff, should we get that many by then.

==

As of right now, I don't expect Sen. Amy Klobuchar to run. I don't expect any Democratic governors or ex-governors besides those mentioned above, from a thin Dem ranks in statehouses, to enter the race. I think Tom Steyer is less likely than Schultz or Bloomberg. (Update: Steyer has officially said he'd prefer to blow billions, if necessary, on trying to impeach Trump instead of potentially blowing billions on a prez campaign. And Klobuchar, for whatever reason, has decided to jump in, despite a thin and "bipartisan" Senate record and a kind of despicable personal one.)

I think other businesscritters are less likely yet.

And, that includes Mark Zuckerberg, who has too much Facebook mess to clean up in the next 12 months to have a chance. (Notice how buzz about his possible candidacy has died off in recent months?)

==

It's also "amazing" (not really) how narrowly the New York Times defined "diversity" in talking about possible candidates trying to get an early start. Sanders is a secularist of some sort, but there's no real atheists. Harris, despite her part-Indian ancestry, is Christian. Tulsi Gabbard is Hindu, of course. As noted above, none are "diverse" in terms of thinking outside the bipartisan foreign policy establishment. None, despite Bernie's mild democratic socialism and falsely calling himself a socialist in 2016, is there any "diversity" outside of broad tenets of modern neoliberal-influenced capitalism.

There's certainly no huge diversity in governance issues. None of the Democratic candidates has talked about amending the Constitution to abolish the electoral college, despite two presidential split decisions this century. Certainly, none has promoted ideas such as any form of instant-runoff voting or proportional representation among their state's U.S. House or state legislature delegations.

Gallup has polled recent Democratic attitudes. Support for some sort of action on climate change is growing within all divisions. More and more whites identify as liberal than moderate and conservative combined. "Liberal" is also growing among blacks and Hispanics but at slower rates.

==

Finally, with Dem changes on superdelegates, is there some chance of a brokered convention? Yes, but not much Put it at 5 percent; note how wide open the GOP race was in 2016 but how much it converged well before the last round of primaries.

==

No, more finally. What about the Republicans?

Well, Bill Weld has now formed an exploratory committee. If he jumps full in, and if that temps John Kasich to jump full in, then you'll get something.

Update, April 15: He's officially entered.

All candidates for all parties, or independent filings, can be found at the FEC website. (It just takes a one-page form, that's it, so it attracts vanity candidates like bullshit draws flies.)