SocraticGadfly: Kristof (Nicholas)
Showing posts with label Kristof (Nicholas). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kristof (Nicholas). Show all posts

April 22, 2012

#Friedman needs to talk to #Kristof about #China

Teapot Tommy Friedman, aka "My Head is Flat," has never met a breathless story about the successes of globalization, especially in China, that he hasn't liked, embellished, spun into a column and loved to death.

Therefore, it's ... er ... "interesting" to note that he's said not a column-inch word about the recent news about corruption-laden, possibly  criminal Chinese Communist politico Bo Xilai.

That said, his op-ed partner, Nicholas Kristof, has no problem in so doing, and in spelling out what this really means, and what the likes of neocentrists like Friedman refuse to see, let alone accept: The Chinese bubble is bursting.

First, the corruption problem:
Even good people are on the take in China these days, because everybody else is. Chinese doctors take cash from patients’ families before surgery. Journalists take bribes to write articles. Principals take money to admit students. 
If this were about Mexico, Friedman would be all over it. But, it's China, so you hear the crickets on his column pages.

Second, as I said, Kristof notes that the bubble is bursting. Or, in some ways, it never expanded to include all of China:
The backdrop is the staggering wealth enjoyed by the elite. More than 300 million Chinese lack access to safe water, but one tycoon’s home I visited had an indoor basketball court, a movie theater and a pond with rare fish worth up to tens of thousands of dollars each.  
There's more, about the alleged money-laundering by Bo and his wife, and more. Kristof notes that reform voices are making themselves a little bit heard, but that's nothing new, either.

Zhao Ziyang was doing the same before Tiananmen Square in 1989, and his pains got him exiled from the government and under house arrest.

Contra neocentrists and neoliberals, capitalism of a sort can and will coexist with dictatorial government of a sort. Hell, it wasn't called "capitalism," but look at the Roman Empire.

That said, it will often become corrupt crony capitalism on a scale of the Koch Brothers' wettest of wet dreams.

And, despite Kristof's hopes, I doubt liberalization of Chinese politics, even within the Communist Party, will happen to any great degree in any time soon.

February 19, 2012

#Krugman was WAY too kind to Charles Murray

Coming Apart: The State Of White America, 1960-2010Coming Apart: The State Of White America, 1960-2010 by Charles Murray

My rating: 1 of 5 stars


"Coming Apart" is quite possibly more mendacious than "The Bell Curve." It's certainly more hypocritical, and given that Murray's whole thesis is ultimately a screed against the  Great Society more spiteful.

In this long review, I'm going to list in exquisite detail all the problems it has, which lead me to note that Paul Krugman, in an oped column about the book, was far, far too nice. (I blogged about his and Nick Kristof's columns on this book here.

The single biggest statistical/demographic/historical problem with “Coming Apart” is that the lesser income inequality and narrow class differential of the middle third of the 20th century is something that Charles Murray, with little evidence, assumes is the American norm.

Rather, in reality, large chunks of American history have shown as much if not more class differentiation than today, albeit without a specific knowledge (or alleged knowledge) caste at the top. And, yes, in other periods in history, classes were able to separate themselves, and were not confined to a “Northeastern establishment.” Coastal planters vs. Tidewater and further inland was a staple of the slave-era South. Being able to live further away from work due to ownership of horses or even a coach also allowed for separation.

Ergo, Murray’s relatively narrow slicing of American history is either ignorant or mendacious. Given an almost visceral dislike he has for European social democracy and its paler U.S. cousin that culminated in the Great Society, one must say that mendaciousness is the likely candidate.
In fact, that leads to another lie. Murray claims he’s not primarily discussing the “whys” of this allegedly new class divide. But, in reality, America’s Great Society “wrong turn” lies behind his starting date for all his comparisons and more.

All other errors, misconstruings of fact and misstatements in this book flow from that.

1.    Murray goes wrong from his prologue, claiming illegal drugs were rare in 1963, among other laughers. Heroin was starting to gain underground popularity by then, marijuana never went away, and cocaine never totally did, either. This also shows the problem with arbitrary timelines, something that plagues this book in general. If we want to go pre-1914 and various criminalization laws, of course, cocaine was all over the place among the well-to-do white upper class, which in turn feared blacks’ alleged increased use of pot, etc. Cocaine itself was prescribed by Freud, among others, as treatment for morphine addiction., But, because Murray uses the day before Kennedy’s assassination (and the day before LBJ could be in office to start that evil, individualism-sapping Great Society), you won’t hear about illegitimacy in the 19th century. You won’t hear about the Gilded Age. You won’t hear about a lot of other sociological American history. (One of the few things about which Murray is right is also in the prologue, namely that Camelot was largely a myth and that JFK never would have pushed for a Great Society.)
2.    It’s arguable that the separation of America into upper and lower classes with largely different values, contra Murray, is nothing new. He likes to cite things like rising illegitimacy rates, but again, what about pre-New Deal days, or certainly, pre-Progressive days? (We know from Britain that in Victorian Scotland, 1 in 3 brides was pregnant at her wedding. I don’t know, the story I saw that didn’t say, how many women had their first child, at least, out of wedlock back then.) The point is, Murray’s careful slicing dates give the impression that mid-20th century America was the norm, rather than, quite possibly, an exception of sort, as far as divisions by economic class, social class, and more. (This is certainly true of religiosity; the mid-20th century’s high point is a definite anomaly compared to much of the 19th century.)
3.    In his take on the modern “elite,” Murray claims that the rich of the 1950s likely ate much the same types of food as the rest of America. The Kennedy White House puts a partial lie to that.
4.    In looking at the new upper class and elite colleges, Murray ignores the “legacies” effect of Ivy League and near-Ivy schools. There isn’t a tremendous amount of information to support his claim that elite schools have, in recent years, engaged in major talent segregation vs. lesser ones. Rather, and contra claims he makes against liberals elsewhere, the combination of legacies and the effects for random chance in a population more than 50 percent greater than in 1960 must be taken into consideration.
5.    On marriage being upheld more in the early U.S. than in Europe, Murray again glides over something that should, from the Bell Curve if nothing else, star him in the face – the number of Southern planters having “affairs” with slave women, and even the occasional planter’s wife doing that with a male slave. In many ways, on how early Europeans viewed early Americans, in fact, one wonders whether Europeans, in something similar to poll bias today, weren’t in fact reporting what they thought their fellow Europeans wanted to hear.
6.    His claim that lower crime rates mean nothing, and that, since in part they’re due to high incarceration rates, that means we actually have higher criminality levels among whites, is tendentious at best and mendacious at worst. This ignores that much of the incarcaration is for drugs, which Murray, a professed libertarian (I love staunchly religious people who nonetheless claim to be libertarians) should well know. Also, he knows well that many of those drug-related incarcerations are of minorities, and therefore, the argument about incarceration meaning higher criminality is more tendentious yet in a book focusing on white America.
7.    Second, his statement that it’s hard to believe more Americans are on disability today than in 1960. First, a graying population alone explains it. So too does the fact that while manufacturing as a percentage of jobs has declined, a smaller percentage of manufacturing jobs are unionized than 50 years ago and that federal safety enforcement started declining in the 1980s. Finally, Murray ignores the great rise in depression and lesser rises in other mental health problems, some severe enough to indeed qualify people for federal disability filing.
8.    His lamenting of lower-class whites not taking more involvement in social programs like PTA ignores issues like the possibility of them working more than 40 hours a week, working split shifts or other “non-traditional schedules,” working two jobs, etc.
9.    Yet more cherry-picking – Murray talks about how presidential election voting declined 22 points from 1960 to 1996, and STOPS THERE! (He also ignores the high turnout of 1960.) We know it went up again after that.  In fairness, he stops other data on changes in communitarian participation in the mid-1990s, but that fairness is just a thimbleful – it’s possible that he did that to cherry-pick a lot. He does go to 2008 in a later graph, which also looks at income disparities in voting, but again, presents no “whys.” For a political scientist, this is again, mendacious, or cherry-picking, or, for someone who worked with a professional statistician on The Bell Curve, simple laziness.
10.    He does little to discuss the role of the rise of the Net in “online communitarianism.” He offers little explanation of the “why” of these changes, otherwise. In many cases, most likely, though, these declines are in part due to what I note in point 3, above. If you’re working extra hours, multiple jobs, or whatever, you can’t be so involved. Murray also ignores that, whether many Americans are truly conscious of what it means to live in a nation of 310 million people today vs. less than 200 million in 1960,  and maybe have gotten less involved either because they feel their voice gets less hearing in a bigger population or because “somebody else will do it.” These stats are also mendacious in a book about growing white class divisions because Murray presents them by all races/ethnic groups, ignoring the likelihood in this case that Hispanic immigration, especially of the illegal kind, has an influence on the numbers.
11.    His chapter on happiness is flawed from the start since it has “faith” as one of its four domains of happiness. Arguably, the “vocation” domain relies in part on the “Protestant work ethic,” and on naïve views about how easy it is to find FULFILLING work. He does claim this can include “avocations” or “causes,” but that’s lame. I could say that “ideals” should be a fifth domain, and included avocations, causes, and other things, too. This chapter also ignores the psychological and philosophical fact that some people are more introspective, internally motivated, etc. Besides that, we will always have less desirable jobs. There will never be a Lake Wobegon of the American labor market, where all the jobs are above average. And, it’s not just Europeans who think we work too much; so do Japanese, Australians and others. American “industriousness” could rather be seen as a a fault, or even worse – a symptom of psychological neurosis, of a people culturally unable to relax.
12.    And, two chapters later, when comparing America’s past, present and future to “the European option,” it seems clear that Murray deliberately stacked the deck on how one can achieve happiness. As a libertarian, he hates social democracy. As a libertarian who’s also religious, he hates the fact that many countries of western Europe have higher happiness levels than the U.S. HATE is not too strong of a word, here, since there’s plenty of sociological statistics to undercut Murray, hate is a driver. His claim that European social democracy restricts human freedom is, overall, laughable. Rather, it’s arguable that many aspects of social democracy, such as extended family leave time, are liberating and that they might even encourage some of the communitarianism whose American decline Murray regrets. Even more laughably, in the next breath, Murray exalts the general rise in fortunes of African-Americans and women while ignoring that this happened through massive government intervention.
13.    Related to the two points immediately above, Murray has a simplistic understanding of religion, and certainly of its development. He has zero “informing” from sociologists of religion or psychologists of religion. A Scott Atran would rip his ideas to little shreds.
14.    Murray claims that, at one time, using Jimmy Stewart in The Philadelphia Story as an example, that all American social classes adhered to the same moral codes. Outside of ignoring Jim Crow, etc., this too is laughable. Robber barons and the organized theft, no robbery, of company towns, payment in script rather than money, etc., are just two of many counterexamples.
15.    Related to that, his scolding of today’s upper class for the unseemingly gaucherie of how they parade their wealth ostentatiously? Again, nothing new. Happened in the Gilded Age and later. Murray ignores that the massive government intervention of a federal income tax, making it stronger during WWII, and the start of a true social safety net during the Depression were part of what reined in previous such gaucherie.
16.    Finally, he ignores that his libertarian capitalism is what produces the problems of the two points above, plus other unseeminglyness like massive CEO pay.
17.    Related to that, on the issue of business ethics, he cites the fact of fewer IRS tax fraud actions against businesses. However, this ignores the IRS’s declining audit rate in recent years, especially against businesses and upper-income individuals.
18.    In this chapter on “alternative futures,” he chides opponents of his point of view on some issues for not being able to prove a negative. We all know the response to that in formal logic, at least. And, in excoriating “old Europe,” he ignores that both government and business leaders of old Europe excoriate not only huge CEO pay, but the perceived over-abundance of managers in U.S. businesses. Actually, in a number of ways, in a quasi-Jeffersonianism updated for the 20th century, “old Europe” meets some American ideals from the past in some ways better than America does.
19.    His claims about American exceptionalism ignores the “whys” of it, as well as fatuously claiming Americans have never had “class envy.”

In sum, then, this book, as it progresses, demonstrates again that Charles Murray is not only a liar but also a hypocrite.

It’s also interesting to see how many libertarian types simply can’t bring themselves to openly condemn the New Deal, because of the third rail of Social Security, even though unemployment benefits also stem from then.




View all my reviews

February 11, 2012

Charles Murray is (half) right?

Nick Kristof says that Charles Murray's newest book, on the decline of social structure among working-class whites is half right, but misses the causes.
Krugman, less charitable, says Murray is one-quarter right, missing the causes, and only finding fault while overlooking positives such as lower crime. 
Krugman also goes on to note how some of this has been an ongoing trope among winger economists.
Indeed, I now await the black Bobbsey twins, Thomas Sowell and Walter Williams, to warn that working-class whites are about to become blacks, and that the ultimate reason for all of this is because America has minimum-wage laws.
Both Krugman and Kristof note that it's legitimate to talk about a white "underclass." But, the way the politics of fear go, tea party types will blame:
1. That underclass itself;
2. Obama the socialist;
3. General liberalism.

None will look not just at big biz of today, but the structural problems of capitalism, especially a globalized capitalism with vast income differences around the world. None will look at how their success gospel beliefs or other types of social Darwinist thought are at best like ostriches burying their heads in the sand or at worst, being part of the problem.

And now, Ross Douthat has weighed in. He attacks Murray's libertarian-driven conclusions, but then sets up a liberal straw man, starting with blaming the regressive Social Security payroll tax while ignoring that many real liberals have called for applying it to all income.

But, Ross isn't all bad. He says:
Second, if we want lower-income Americans to have stable family lives, our political system should take family policy seriously, and look for ways to make it easier for parents to manage work-life balance when their kids are young. There are left-wing approaches to this issue (European-style family-leave requirements) and right-wing approaches (a larger child tax credit). Neither is currently on the national agenda; both should be.
Agreed there, as well as with his idea of reducing incarceration rates, something the libertarian Murray apparently ignores.


June 15, 2011

NickKristof - naive about 'lefty military'

Kristof tries to call the U.S. armed forces "the lefty military."

Of course, there is PLENTY of truth he's missing:
1. The religious indoctrination so hugely prevalent at the Air Force;
2. The larger evangelical Christian bias elsewhere in the military, as "Rock the Fort" and the underhanded cancellation of "Rock Beyond Belief" show;
3. Demographic polling that shows the enlisted ranks of the U.S. military, not just commissioned officers, are more religious, and more conservative, than the country as a whole;
4. The strong opposition of many officers, especially in the Marines, to the proposed ending of don't ask, don't tell.

I haven't had this much of a laugh at self-inflicted naivete since Kos claimed the CIA was actually a liberal institution.

===

There's other good stuff from commenters on his column.

Among them:
1. The military is orders-based; it's easy to get "equality" by dictate;
2. It's "socialist" in the amount of money we "redistribute" to it, but, with mercenaries, etc., threatening to become more and more capitalist;
3. Corporations are becoming more militarized in their hierarchical structure;

February 21, 2010

If health care were like media

Go read Nick Kristof's Sunday column; you'll laugh and shake your head in agreement at the same time.

October 22, 2009

Afghanistan troop surge argument continues

Nicholas Kristof is the latest pundit to weigh in on the “no” side. In his nut graf, he directly refutes Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s counterinsurgency-based call for a troop “surge”:
Standard counterinsurgency ratios of troops to civilians suggest we would need 650,000 troops (including Afghans) to pacify the country. So will adding 40,000 more to the 68,000 already there make a difference to justify the additional annual cost of $10 billion to $40 billion, especially since they may aggravate the perception of Americans as occupiers?

Sounds pretty straightforward, no?

Meanwhile, some “boots on the ground” work in Afghanistan looks promising, but, could it hold, even if we put more troops in now, and then pulled back three-five years later?

But, Kristof counters, as far as al-Qaida fears:
Steven Simon, a National Security Council official in the Clinton years who is now a terrorism expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, notes that there may be more Al Qaeda fighters in Pakistan, Yemen and perhaps Somalia than in Afghanistan.

The Afghan Taliban will know we can hit them with cruise missiles, and, eventually, Predators, from offshore, if they support an al-Qaida renaissance, anyway.

September 06, 2009

Yet more reasons to leave Afghanistan

First, Nicholas Kristof notes we’re continuing to inflame the country’s Pashtuns, whether they are actually that supportive of the Taliban or not.

Yet, that’s not his conclusion; Kristof says we should stay, but with a lighter military footprint. What? Fewer troops with less power projection? That means more potshotting at them.

Meanwhile, Mr. Flatliner, Tom Friedman, admits he feels “regulating top financiers’ pay” ambivalence about the idea of doubling down. But, also wants to stay.

That’s close to Einstein’s “insanity” comments.
-END-

December 22, 2008

Kristof: Liberals more charity-cheap than conservatives

I’m sure folks at places like National Review will love the centerpiece of Nicholas Kristof’s new column, where he claims liberals give less to charity than do conservatives, but the column and the studies behind it are fatally flawed.

First, “charity,” “nonprofit” and other words are thrown around without any definition.

Second, and most importantly, churches aren’t separated out from other nonprofits. And we know conservatives go to church more. Ditto on Nick saying conservatives invest more time; that's surely part of the difference if not all of it.

Kristof then says neither side contributes a lot to the neediest. Well, why doesn't he provide a breakout, like money given to food pantries, homeless shelters, etc., vs., say churches by conservatives or environmental agencies by liberals? Or, prrovide a breakout of what percentage of liberals,and of conservatives' donations, per national philanthropy information, goes from these charities to actual causes?

In follow-up comments at his blog, Kristof notes that neither conservatives nor liberals do a lot to help the neediest, conceding my first point of contention. He does note greater conservative involvement with churches, but puts no number on that.

Of course, from where I sit, that is kind of a Kristof M.O. Spin out a great story, but get fuzzy on the details. When it is purely a social-issues column that doesn't need a lot of hard facts, that is fine. But this column did.

December 11, 2008

Change we Need needed at USDA

Nicholas Kristof has an excellent column about how the U.S. Department of Agriculture is so in need of reform that we ought to start by calling it the Department of Food.

And, per his column, you can help push for that reform by signing an online petition to President-elect Obama at Food for Democracy.

Here’s what I wrote to personalize my e-signature:
Anything to reign in Big Ag, control CAFO pollution and give us healthier food!

Don’t wait, go sign.

June 13, 2008

Hillary lost because of the speech she did not give

That’s Nick Kristof’s very interesting theory. Kristof, who can provoke good thought in me even when I disagree with him, says Hillary Clinton should have given a speech on sex similar to the one Barack Obama did in race.

In fact, he considers the matter so important, he calls on Obama to now give the speech Clinton didn’t. (An even better idea might be for Clinton to give that speech at the Democratic National Convention.)

Kristof has several talking points about the need for this speech, too:
Racism is deeper, but sexism may be wider in America today. In polls, more Americans say they would be willing to vote for a black candidate for president than for a female candidate, and sexist put-downs are heard more publicly than racial ones.

That’s probably true even once you allow for the Tom Bradley effect. Beyond that, the fact that there is no “Geraldine Ferraro effect” that has to get factored in for polling about women candidates underscores Kristof’s bottom line.
We aren’t always aware of our own biases. Some of Mrs. Clinton’s supporters are sure that she was defeated by misogyny, while those who voted against her invariably are dismissive. … The catch is that abundant psychology research shows that we are often shaped by stereotypes that we are unaware of.

Or, we get committed enough to our biases to defend them and argue for them.
A conservative may end up the first woman president. The first Catholic president, John F. Kennedy, wasn’t “very Catholic.” In the same way, the first black president probably won’t be “very black,” either in complexion or in any personal history with the civil-rights struggle.

Beyond that, a liberal black like Randall Kennedy might say “so” to the idea that a conservative black could be elected before Obama. I would hope women would say the same.

He’s got more thoughts on the issue at this very good column.

Will Obama be reading?