Iran War early fallout, plus fearmongering and handwaving

The world currently produces 100 million barrels of oil per day.

Let us say that the Iran War shuts the spigots on 10 percent of that, or 10 million barrels per day.

Trump's release of 172 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve in the US, plus the International Energy Administration's announcement of 400 million barrels of release from global reserves, detailed here, is 57 days of relief. (That's if the two releases are separate; if not, 40 days.)  More on the IEA move here; if you're wondering, that would be one-third of its reserve. If Iranian damage to Gulf Arab refineries is severe enough, that won't be easily replenished. The US reserve has about 415 million barrels, per CNBC. So, this would be about 45 percent.

Is Trump still hoping he can force Iran's ruling regime to collapse? Won't happen. 

The end of the month until the US can escort tankers? That 10 million barrels of damage by Iran might be small. 

UPDATE: The actual amount of oil going through Hormuz is about 20 million barrels of day. Currently, trans-Arabia pipelines, beyond what they already carry, cannot handle more than about 6 million additional barrels at best. See here for more. 

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 "Iranian drones could strike California!" Change "Iranian" to "Japanese," "drones" to "submarines," and we're right back in 1942. Only this is surely Trump Admin rumor-mongering with even less basis in fact, targeting California cuz California.

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As for the fallout? It's more than oil prices, at least in Merikkka. How direct the connection is, I don't know, but mortgage rates are going up in Middle America. Homeowners will notice that soon after gas prices. 

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Since Sen. Mark Kelly has beat the rap on his unlawful orders comment, due to this thing called the First Amendment, does he think Trump has issued unlawful orders to start the Iran war? You're pretty quiet, Mark. Well, you did say something about how the Senate needs to return to Washington and do its duty, but you're otherwise quiet. 

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Meanwhile, the car ramming of the Dearborn synagogue? Without condoning it? Anti-Zionism is not antisemitism. Blowback, even when indirect, is still blowback. Non-Zionist Jews as well as goys have been warning against this since Oct. 7, 2023. 

Biden's federal oil-drilling reforms — one quick thought

Increasing the royalty payment, per High Country News' list of all that President Biden's proposed reforms include, sounds good.

But?

At the state level, it gets Western states with lots of drilling on BLM or Forest Service land even more addicted to oil money. That's especially if they're relatively low-population and also relatively poor.

Looking at you right in the eyeballs, New Mexico and fake green governor Michelle Lujan Grisham. Note that between federal, state and private land, New Mexico oil drilling has almost doubled in the past five years. It has passed North Dakota into No. 2 on state oil production. (Most the recent explosion in shale drilling in the Permian Basin is on the NM half of the Delaware Basin.)

West Texas continues to be ever-more contaminated

Can "produced water" contaminate aquifers? If so, what are the liabilities of oil companies? If they're real and serious, is the state requiring them (ditto in places like New Mexico) to set aside adequate funds in advance? Is this just an issue with old wells, and lower standards for injection of their leftover produced water, or is it just as much an issue today? The Trib investigates the issue (other than state funding reserve requirements, or lack thereof [it IS a problem in the Land of Disenchantment]) here in Tex-ass. Here's a good pullout:

“This is the worst I’ve ever seen. I’ve been in 102 countries. I have never seen anything like this. And there is nothing in my mind that can fix it,” ... said Hawk Dunlap, an international oil field firefighter ... a fourth-generation oil worker and sixth-generation Texan. “You go around the world telling everybody how great Texas is, then come home and see this. It’s rather embarrassing.”

There you go.

This to fair degree pits two classes of stereotypical Texans against each other: farm and ranch owners vs Big Oil (and not-so-big in many cases, itself a problem).

And, so far, we know whose pocket the Railroad Commissioners are in, and by their inactivity on the issue, whose pocket the Lege is in as well.

Texas Progressives talk oil and baseball

The Roundup was long enough, and I didn't really have a Monday blog piece, so I split it into two. With that, let's dig in.

With oil at and above $100 a barrel, the Monthly explains (most of which I already knew) why Wall Street isn't financing new drilling in the Permian. And, it probably won't be financing new drilling for a while. Paying shareholders will come first. This is MeriKKKa, and even the awl bidness is going to have to accept that. One interesting part is that many Wall Street investors are also trying to greenwash themselves, and that adds more complications.

Chevron has paid to settle Clean Air Act violations, speaking of oil.

With baseball back, SocraticGadfly looked at lockout winners and losers along with season speculation about the Cardinals and other things. I didn't put anything there, but I expect the stRangers will finish out of the money even with a 12-team playoffs. The Stros will finish in, even if they don't resign Correa, but that will make the difference between just making the playoffs and making a post-season run.

G. Elliott Morris explains why it's hard to measure opinions in autocratic regimes.

Texas Monthly notes an upswing at Texas lifestyle clubs.

The Dallas Observer defends Peggy Hill, as a person and as a parent.

The Texas Living Waters Project urges lawmakers to seize this historic opportunity to transform the state's fragile water infrastructure.

The Austin Chronicle eulogizes "Sister" Bobbie Nelson.