Southwest er Southworst has officially shit the bed

I have not taken a non-Southwest flight anywhere in more than a decade, probably since Southworst decided to not follow legacy airlines in not charging for checked bags.

Well, their clusterfuck decision to do that earlier this year, combined with other David Singer changes?

As of last Thursday, it was $25 cheaper, or $15 less slightly higher prices for a checked bag, to go American for my Christmas-New Year holiday. (Further Googling says the AA charges the same as Southworst if I pay online; at least on its own site, I can't tell if Southworst offers such an option.)

My one brother, long a mild to moderate road warrior for his biz, said that the AA was long cheaper for him out of St. Louis, where he lives. For me, in the past, Southworst had generally been cheaper, period, PLUS the lack of checked bag fees.

What a clusterfuck. 

I promised, in March, that when Southworst announced the end of bags fly free, I'd look at American (and others). Southworst made that easier by listing on Expedia and Travelocity, along with the other legacy airlines. The comparison is made easier there by those sites listing bag fees as you go through the price choice; Southworst doesn't do that on its own site.

Is this clusterfuckery part of the "more changes" vulture capitalist Paul Singer said he wanted in May? 

Don't forget that Southworst starts assigned seating next January. 

I'll probably eat the extra $15 if nothing else changes. Leaving an hour later is of advantage to not feel rushed. Parking at both airports is about the same; hate that Love got rid of that el cheapo remote lot on Harry Hines.

Check that. Yesterday, but a few days after I started writing this? I checked again. American had dropped about $30, and added a flight (or I missed it earlier) that runs an hour later than Southworst. Southworst, meanwhile, went UP on the old flight.

Tweeting again to Southwest with a tag got their attention. Yes, popular fares fill first. Also yes, American added a flight and dropped costs. 

That said, when the bag fee was announced, I thought the corner office people would only charge $15 for the first bag, figuring they'd retain most of their family travel biz that way while still making more money. God, Paul Singer is a Dum Fuq. 

If I'm still here in the Metromess in a couple more years, we'll see if Love's long-term expansion leads to lower parking rates, and more competition on airlines with the new terminal. We'll also see who flies out of McKinney once that has its passenger terminal open. Were I the FAA, United would get first shot among legacy airlines.

As of early this year, here's where that was at:

McKinney is in negotiations with two airlines for passenger service. Fuller says this will mean flights to major markets like Las Vegas, Orlando, Los Angeles, New York, and Denver. He noted that TKI would serve as a regional operations base for one of the airlines.

Denver? That could mean United is indeed one of the two airlines, since that's a hub. I'll take it. 

Especially with the 2023 bond issue failing (maybe they try another after commercial service opens?) this won't be big at all, but it will be something. 

==

Update: Given the above, why does Southwest need to expand by 2,000 employees in Austin? 

Good on McKinney going ahead with a passenger airport terminal

I thought, after McKinney voters rejected a 2023 bond issue, this would be dead.

But, the city has enough money without going through a bond to start work on a commercial terminal, in part through state budget funding and a TxDOT grant, per this story of the airport's history. It's too bad the 2023 Lege hadn't funded this; it would already be open by now.

I'm not ignoring or dissing questions about environmental impacts.

I am saying that the greater Metromess could use a third airport. Now, what airlines are going out there? I think the FAA should put both American and Southwest at the back of the bus on gate requests. I expect UnitedContinental or whatever the hell it's called would love to fly from here to Houston and Denver, two of its hubs. 

I wrote more about that in the run-up to the 2023 bond election, here. One pullout:

Presumably, given Southwest's near monopoly at Love, and American's at D/FW, the FAA would have Delta and United Continental first in line for gate slots. With that, almost all United flights would go either to its big hub at Houston Bush, and anywhere else from there, or secondarily to its Denver hub, with anywhere in the Western states from there. (A few nonstops would go to Chicago.) Delta, of course, would send all sorts of flights to its massive hub in Atlanta (cue old joke) and probably a few to its secondary hub in Salt Lake City. Starter (in the past decade) airlines might get a gate or two. And McKinney Mayor George Fuller says he can't name names, but, the interest is there. His assistant city manager says the same. 

Southwest has first layoffs in corporate history — beyond overreaction and political spinning

After its first, and second, rounds of battling with Elliott Investment Management and its head vulture capitalist Paul Singer last year, it appears that Southwest Airlines is still facing some financial headwinds.

It just laid off nearly 2,000 people. As many people have noted on Shitter and elsewhere, it's never before done layoffs. Not even in COVID.

Now, those are all corporate staff, so airports won't be affected. It's about 15 percent of the head office people.

Meanwhile, at least one BlueAnon is already trying to make this about Trump, even while ignoring that Southworst offered buyouts in November. That, in turn, was caused by aircraft delivery delays from Boeing. Said person claimed that Trump's immigrant roundup would depress international tourism and non-tourism flights, not only ignoring the buyouts, but also ignoring that Southwest has a modest number of Mexican and Caribbean flights and otherwise doesn't fly outside the US.

Per that buyouts link, American also offered buyouts in November. Southwest, through attrition, had been cutting staff since late 2023. And, CEO Bob Jordan said then that he wasn't done reducing staff.

So, this is not "panic time" for Southwest, but it is a new day. 

(Update, March 13: What IS a REALLY new day is Southwest ending "bags fly free." My analysis and hot take is here.)

If it's panicky anywhere, it should be Boeing. 

American, as well as Southwest, has cited delayed deliveries from Boeing as one factor in decision-making, including on employment levels. Southwest added that it expects to take fewer Boeing deliveries this year. And, as I write this, I don't think Boeing has yey cleaned house — or mentalities — as much as it needs to over 737 MAX8 and related issues.

As for Southwest and Elliott? After the airline's current poison pill expires, I expect Paul Singer to be hanging ghoulishly outside the door again.

EDIT: Addendum because MAGAts — none of this is to say that Southwest is not worried about general travel headwinds becoming yet more adverse in the future because of Trump. (The first person who liked this on Shitter was one of them.)

 

The end of an era is approaching at Southwest / Southworst

Last month, the semi-legacy airline announced it would end its famous open seating policy next year. 

Now, first, the seating isn't totally "open." You can pay Southwest to upgrade, if not to an assigned seat, at least to A-section boarding, first of all. Second, families with pre-teen kids not already in A section by how early they checked in automatically board between A and B so parents can keep together with their kids.

The biggie? Does this mean the "bags fly free" domino will drop next?

"Activist" (more vulture-like) investors, led by Elliott Investment Management, have been pushing for this.

If Southworst charged for a second checked bag but kept the first free, I could definitely in summer, possibly in cold weather, find a way to cram all my stuff in one bag. If it started charging for even a first bag?

Well, then, I start looking at Travelocity as well as Southworst's website.

(Update, Sept. 5: Some sort of other shoe may be a lot closer to dropping.)

In a recent Facebook discussion with my brother, he said that "bags fly free" just covered up high prices and that for him, from St. Louis, American was actually cheaper to Orlando. (He didn't say how many, if any, checked bags he had.)

Well, to do a comp to my recent vacation trip, I checked American's prices from DFW to Sacramento a month out from now.

Prices themselves? Even. 

But, American wants $40 one-way for the first checked back and Travelocity didn't even list a price for a second.

So, as long as bags fly free, I fly Southworst — on-time problems and all.

It DOES have that, though. In the past three-plus years, I don't think I've had a single flight, and I know not a single summertime flight, with a delay of less than 15 minutes. This trip? 45-plus, both ways. I think it was crew on the return trip. I know it was outbound. The feds won't let you fly without a copilot.

It was funny, something related to that.

That outbound flight was July 19, the date the Crowdstrike update caused problems for other legacy airlines. (Not sure if anybody considers Southworst "legacy," but it is at least semi-legacy, per top of the piece.) A bunch of people at D/FW couldn't get rebooked on a Double A flight, weren't getting enough compensation of whatever, so hopped over to Love Field.

One of them said that he thought maybe Southworst used Linux and that's why they weren't hit.

I didn't tell him, knowing their history with their crappy crew scheduling software, that it was more likely their flight scheduling system was simply too old to accept the latest Crowdstrike upgrade.

Finally? Southworst PR? You ARE a "semi-legacy," at least. Fifty-plus years old.

Big North Texas bond issue with regional impact causing fallout

That BIG issue, and one that I would love to see pass, is NOT a school bond issue. Rather, it's one to fund the expansion of McKinney's airport — and its development of commercial passenger service.

Indeed, I devoted part of a newspaper column to that. I noted how it would address the growth of the Metromess up the North Central Texas/75 corridor, and to a lesser degree, up the I-35 north corridor. (A decade plus ago, residents of Lancaster did low level preliminary tire kicking on expanding its airport to light commercial service, and an airport in Ellis County got occasional mention, but I don't see the former happening at all and the latter for 20 years, if at all.)

Anyway, even if just at three-quarters the gateage of Love Field, a new commercial airport would be big. Presumably, given Southwest's near monopoly at Love, and American's at D/FW, the FAA would have Delta and United Continental first in line for gate slots. With that, almost all United flights would go either to its big hub at Houston Bush, and anywhere else from there, or secondarily to its Denver hub, with anywhere in the Western states from there. (A few nonstops would go to Chicago.) Delta, of course, would send all sorts of flights to its massive hub in Atlanta (cue old joke) and probably a few to its secondary hub in Salt Lake City. Starter (in the past decade) airlines might get a gate or two. And McKinney Mayor George Fuller says he can't name names, but, the interest is there. His assistant city manager says the same.

Anyway, the possible expansion is not popular everywhere. Neighboring small-town mayors are afraid of noise pollution. McKinney's mayor says the concern is overblown. And, besides, their town's voters don't have a vote. Add in that, 40 flights a day, 15 years from now, is not that much noise being generated. THAT said, contra McKinney's Mayor Fuller, IMO, you need that airport running MANY more flights than that if you want real economic development. (Current projections are here.) At that size, it's still not much more than a vanity project. (And, he may know that and isn't talking all the facts.)

Personally, I still fly Southwest out of Love, but last year's Christmas fiasco has made me ever more leery of it.

UPDATE: Unfortunately, from my perspective, the bond failed.

AA CEO living in dream world

American Airlines CEO Thomas Horton must be smoking the good stuff. He says he and his management team deserve to continue running the show after a likely merger with US Airways. (I will give him reality check credit for admitting a takeover is likely, even if he wants to call it a "merger.")

Reality? American's on-time performance, customer service and safety wee all sinking to new lows even before it entered Chapter 11.

The other reality is that, even if American is improving, it's still the lesser player in any deal.

And, Horton was CFO since 2006, until last year. If he's making all these alleged major changes to American now, was he asleep at the wheel for five years before that? The high labor costs (or "high," if you will) maybe couldn't be fully addressed until recently, but other issues?

Could another airline take over American?

Creditors of American Airlines, now in bankruptcy, reportedly are pushing for US Airways to take it over. It kind of makes sense. The two don't have a lot of overlap. The merged Delta/Northwest and United/Continental have merger growing pains and such a new merger wouldn't pass antitrust.

Beyond that, Southwest surely wants nothing to do with American; likely, the same is true for Jet Blue. Would an off-the-wall mid-sized carrier like Alaska Air venture in? What about a foreign airline, but one not owned by a foreign government? Would the U.S. government waive regulations?

Airline slowdown continues — recession-related?

American is laying off 469 employees, almost all at O’Hare; Southwest’s August traffic dropped 5.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, despite adding capacity. The load factor was its lowest in five years.

Recession-related? Could very well be, especially in Southwest's case, it being a darling of business travelers and all. Vacationers would flock TO Southwest during August, if anything, since it's still not charging for checked baggage.

American stiffs soldiers

Two Guardsmen wound up getting charged $100 and $300, respectively, in checked bag fees by American Airlines for their military equipment.

Needless to say, the Veterans of Foreign Wars, among others, aren’t too happy with old AA.

American may lay off 900

American Airlines says it is looking at furloughing 900 flight attendants next month. That’s combined with retirement packages for those over the age of 50 and with more than 15 years of American service time.

While it has a severance package, I don’t see that that includes a years-of-service credit for those with less than 20, or whatever.

Besides, why are they not being rehired as baggage police?

At American, I have no doubt this is known as “taking an Arpey” on your employees.

American to whip out baggage police

With American Airlines leading the pack on a $15 surcharge, one way, for a passenger’s first checked bag and $25 for the second, well, DUH… obviously people are going to try to take more stuff as carry-on.

So American and United and using in-terminal baggage police to try to keep people from flouting carry-on rules.

And, these employees are being diverted from where? Or paid how much overtime?

Well, it’s worse than that: They may be contract employees hired for this purpose.

If I can find where in the Metroplex American CEO Gerard Arpey lives, I’ll tell you where to mail a big steaming turd.

Bag-check fee catches on — and $2 a pop for pop!!

No. 2 airline United and No. 7 U.S. Airways have joined No. 1 airline American in charging $15 for fliers’ first checked bag.

I’m betting, still, that Southwest doesn’t join the stampede, and winds up using this to actually increase its profit margin.

And, no more free sodas on U.S. Airways — it’s $2 a pop for pop now.

So why is American doing a checked-bag fee at all?

American says it will only affect one out of four customers.

But, those one out of four are, basically, the Travelocity/Orbitz/Expedia ticket buyers. Maybe American wants to push them to either buy first-class, or else buy through American’s website.

American says that if too many people take too much carry-on for airplane bins (and older plans, like a Super 80, can fill up quickly), it will check those bags for free.

That’s going to waste time, waste manpower and delay plane takeoffs.

Is it any wonder that with business acumen like that, American continues to lose money by the bushel basket?

No, that’s no wonder.

The wonder, or the disgust, is that American CEO Gerard Arpey continues to get fat bonuses for such brilliant ideas as the Arpey fee.

Continental joins list of route-cutting airlines

The Houston-based Continental will cut flights “11 percent by the end of this year and ground nearly 70 planes.

With most major carriers now doing this, here’s the ripple effects:
1. Higher prices after this summer, due to limited capacity.
2. Cutbacks in orders from Boeing and Airbus, unless to replace the oldest, most inefficient planes quickly.
3. Opportunities for Southwest, which has trimmed its expansion plans for this year, but still has some expansion plans as of this moment.

We can only hope on No. 3, and also hope here in Dallas that Southwest does not continue its semi-collusion with American as the Wright Amendment continues to undergo its phase-out ending.

United joins American in route and job slashing

Almost by the same percentage as American, United says it will cut domestic flights about 20 percent by the end of this year.

Delta has also, previously, announced route cuts.

But, neither United nor Delta is following American on charging for a second checked bag, let alone a first one.

My guess is that some other airlines look at a more token $10 charge for a second bag at some point in the future and that nobody follows American on charging for the first checked bag.

Will the last airline to go broke please turn out the lights?

U.S. airlines are projected to lose $2.3 billion this year, according to International Air Transport Association.

The main reason? Jet fuel costs are expected to rise 30 percent over last year.

But wait, you’re just getting the sunny side.

Throw out perennial money-maker Southwest, and the rest of the Top 10 airlines are expected to lose nearly $5 billion this year.

And, that 30 percent rise in jet fuel? It’s based on a Brent crude oil price of “just” $106/bbl.

Jamie Baker of JP Morgan expects the legacy airlines to drop a $7.2 billion dime.

Hey, Gerard Arpey, a $15 bag check fee ain’t gonna cover that at American.

And United, you can talk all you want about not being interested in mergers, but you’d better get interested in doing something different.

Call it the Gerard Arpey fee

American Airlines’ $15 fee for your first checked bag went into place yesterday.

Fortunately, I had just carry-ons for my flight back from San Francisco.

And, we actually got back to Dallas 15 minutes early.

But, let my tell you just what the Gerard Arpey fee did NOT get:
1. A boarding agent to run out the skybridge, hook it up, and open the airplane!
2. Working telephones in the flight attendants’ area at the back of the plane to check on when a boarding agent might get there, after the captain’s original call.
3. Flight attendants happy with Gerard Arpey, his big fat bonuses, or the crappy contract offered to various American unions.

Rather than e-mailing just one person, go to American’s website and bitch at a bunch of people. Since it's now 2 a.m., writing this in advance of going to sleep, I'm too tired to look up e-mail addys anyway!

American slashing flights to force up prices

American says it will cut seat miles 11-12 percent in the fourth quarter of this year. Other airlines, to lesser degrees, are likely to follow; it’s a way of raising costs without adding fuel surcharges.

At least it won’t be until the fourth quarter.

The move was recognized as a sign of weakness; AMR stock was off 15 percent.

And, it happened as part of the annual shareholder meeting of American parent AMR:

“The airline industry as it is constituted today was not built to withstand oil prices at $125 a barrel, and certainly not when record fuel expenses are coupled with a weak U.S. economy,” AMR Chief Executive Gerard Arpey said in a statement.

“The industry will not and cannot continue in its current state,” Arpey told shareholders at the company's annual meeting in Fort Worth, Texas on Wednesday.

So, does that mean American’s looking at merger possibilities?

Meanwhile, the move is in stark contrast to Southwest, which announced yesterday it is expanding service out of Denver.

American Airlines could be in more FAA hot water over Paris flight

And it should be.

The Federal Aviation Administration is investigating why the pilot of an American Airlines flight from Dallas to Paris in which the Miami-based captain continued the 10-hour flight even after crew members heard what they believed to be an explosion in the cargo hold 14 minutes after takeoff.

As I blogged yesterday:

An e-mail battle is brewing between American cockpit pilots and management office pilots as to whether an American captain on a Dallas-Paris flight should have turned back to D/FW, or flown on as he actually did, after a 3x6 foot panel fell off the belly of his Boeing 767. Management says it was the best decision with available information.

Excuse me, but when you hear a noise and feel a vibration, shouldn’t you turn around?

Especially given the Federal Aviation Administration’s recent crackdown on safety inspections at American, with more due by the end of this month, this will have repercussions.

Anyway, the noise and vibration are now being called a “very strong vibration” and “a loud explosion,” according to an e-mail from an unnamed American flight attendant. It’s not clear whether or not this person was on the flight in question.

Wunderbar. And I’m flying an American 767 to San Francisco in three weeks. Out of D/FW.

As for the Steve Chapmans of the world who claim recent FAA crackdowns on American and Southwest are just CYAs, well, if CYAs will help safety, I’m all for it.

American Airlines safety alert

An e-mail battle is brewing between American cockpit pilots and management office pilots as to whether an American captain on a Dallas-Paris flight should have turned back to D/FW, or flown on as he actually did, after a 3x6 foot panel fell off the belly of his Boeing 767. Management says it was the best decision with available information.

Excuse me, but when you hear a noise and feel a vibration, shouldn’t you turn around?

Especially given the Federal Aviation Administration’s recent crackdown on safety inspections at American, with more due by the end of this month, this will have repercussions.