Top blogging for July

These aren't necessarily posts from July, but they got the most reader interest in the last 30 days.

My saying that the atrocious Bladensberg Cross ruling, not the gerrymandering case, tops the bad Supreme Court rulings of this term was No. 1.

No. 2 was my speculation about a Joe Straus vs Greg Abbott GOP presidential primary in 2022.

Writing about how Madcow Maddow was more right than wrong on Bernie and GUNZ was No. 3.

A Texas Legislature fairy tale about Drew and Pat's semi-excellent road trip was fourth.

Word-painting about the Simon and Garfunkel-like urban quietude that real climate change battling would bring was No. 5.

Written at the end of the month on July 29, but moving up the list to No. 6 as of yesterday? My calling out of the cult of the #TulsiTwerkers. (Let's get that hashtag trending!)

No. 7 and No. 10 are related and even later. They're about the St. Louis Cardinals refusing to make an MLB trade deadline move, at tenth, and head-faking with some craptaculartude semi-salary dump and full-on just taking a dump on fans in seventh.

In eighth is my piece on Greens, Libertarians, smaller third parties and independents suing the state of Texas over various ballot access issues, given an opening in part by Drew Springer's HB 2504.

The ninth spot goes to my latest round in deconstructing the myth vs reality of Sema Hernandez, related to both her 2018 run for the Senate and her re-run for 2020.

Joe Straus vs Greg Abbott: Who you like?

As reported in brief in a Texas Progressives' roundup of a few weeks back, former Speaker Joe Straus has started a PAC. Supposedly, he might run for higher office in 2022. That would mean Greg Abbott, assuming Straus doesn't settle for a fight against Danny Goeb, as there's no U.S. Senate race in 2022, unless he's looking at a U.S. House run.

So, realistically, what are Straus' odds?

First take? No more than 25 percent, in my book. Strangeabbott has avoided being too closely tied to Goeb, let alone TP wingnuts like Former Fetus Forever Fuckwad Jonathan Stickland. He'll have a huge war chest, plus to the degree such things still exist, patronage, and as we know it still exists, intimidation.

Now, if Straus went against Goeb for Lite Guv? I'll give him a solid 35 percent shot, at a minimum. Plus, given their differing stances on the bathroom bill and Straus' comments about that, wouldn't you rather see this showdown anyway? Goeb is more hamhanded, first, and second, doesn't have the political capital that Abbott does.

Maybe Straus' target is Goeb. But, having been Speaker, I can't see him settling for less than the top job.

If he were — unlikely, to me — looking at the House, that means Joaquin Castro's 20th, Chip Roy's 21st in an interesting primary, or Will Hurd's 23rd, which I doubt he would do, ConservaDem Henry Cuellar's 28th (very interesting) or Lloyd Doggett's gerrymandered 35th, if Straus wants something San Antonio-related, whether or not his current home is in one of those districts.

That doesn't make a lot of sense, though, as he could be running now, unless he wanted that much politics downtime but still wants back in the game. That wouldn't make sense either.

Beyond that, per the Trib link up top, Straus doesn't indicate any interest in federal level politics.

So, it's Straus vs either Strangeabbott or Goeb unless he backs out. Getcha popcorn!

==

Update, Aug. 7: Straus, interestingly, hasn't called out Abbott on gun control issues in the wake of Patrick Crusius' racist shoot-up in El Paso. That said, the ardently pro-life "moderate conservative" Straus has a 93 percent rating from NRA, so, we probably won't hear any such callouts.

And hence, for this, and other reasons, given that the left hand of the duopoly has added enough state House seats, and may add more 15 months from now, per the caption on the picture?

Nope, Joe, not a lot. That said, let's see if the Democritters do add that many more seats, and, if they remain short of a majority, how much Bonnen accommodates them in the next Lege.

TX Progressives talk debates and more

This Green outpost of the Texas Progressives says RIP to Bruce Dixon, co-chairman of the Georgia Green Party and co-founder of the Black Agenda Report.

The Texas Progressives are sure that national pundits didn't win anything after the two Democratic Debate rounds — nor did several Democrats — as they bring you this week's roundup, and wish you a happy, safe, and patriotically rebellious against status quos Fourth of July. And, per John Adams, if you waited until the Fourth, you were two days too late anyway.


Dallas

SocraticGadfly, having read the story about Jerry Falwell Jr., wonders if Trump / Cohen have nekkid pix of Robert Jeffress.

The Metroplex entertainment industry took a hit with the canning of NRATV.

A bunch of Metromess comedians are quite unhappy the Addison Improv booked Louis CK.

No, Bob O'Rourke wasn't at the DMA mistaking it for a What? A Burger? parking lot, but the art museum has closed its sculpture garden after a boarder decided to hang ten on some of the artwork, while the museum no-commented if that's why it shut the sculpture garden.

Big D now has an official tree management plan.


Fort Worth

Gale McCray, aka "Old Man with a Sign," has signed off for now on his anti-Trump sign campaign.


Houston

Jeff Balke accepts the reality of I-45 expansion.


Lone Star Q reports on Harris County adding non-discrimination and anti-harassment policies for its LGBTQ employees.

Texas

Former Speaker Joe Straus has started a PAC. Supposedly, he might run for higher office in 2022. That would mean Greg Abbott, assuming Straus doesn't settle for a fight against Danny Goeb. I'll have a full blog post pullout about this shortly.

A century ago, actual socialism had a foothold in Texas, until a snitch helped undercut it. For those of us who know that the nation's largest Socialist newspaper was once in little rural Girard, Kansas, stories like this are not new. What they mean for today is that "flipping" a state like Texas doesn't mean stopping at neoliberal.

Bexar County Sheriff's Office continues to grow in dysfunctionality level.

Also in Bexar County, Wayne Christian (yes, there are TWO of him among elected officials in the state) is an off-the-rails judge.

The state now has a Quanah, aka Quanah Parker, Day. I'm sure it will be full of Anglo Texas mythmaking bullshit, especially since he only really used the surname "Parker" to try to fit into white society after the Indian Wars ended. That's why I normally refer to him as he was actually named as a Comanche.

Laurie Felker Jones documents her experiences founding a startup and seeking venture capital.

Joe Nick Patoski eulogizes Lonn Taylor.

The Texas Trib has a special page of agencies helping immigrants.

National — SCOTUS

SCOTUS told Wilbur the Talking Horse's Ass Ross to keep a citizenship question off the Census for now. (Prediction here? Despite claiming a June 30 deadline, Commerce plus Justice will try a late end run and seek to flip John Roberts.)

Off the Kuff has two updates on the Census citizenship question lawsuit.

The court was down with gerrymandering, though, and we know how that plays out in the Pointy Abandoned Object State™.

First, the ruling itself? I think it was in a gray zone between right and wrong constitutionally. Roberts is right that the founders probably expected some degree of politicization, while ignoring that those same founders believed America had, or would, transcend petty political parties. At the same time, he also ignores that many state legislatures have vested redistricting power in nonpartisan redistricting commissions, undermining his argument to some degree. At the third time (shades of Idries Shah!) he is right that, unlike, say, race, the courts have nothing close to an objective standard for determining what is too partisan.

So, overall, while not hugely right, it is right constitutionally as I see it.

That said, this blogger has long said the real answer is proportional representation off a national list (or state list for state elections), just like most of continental Europe. But, both halves of the duopoly would rather gerrymander than empower third parties like that.


National

Bob and Julián brought their Dem Debate pissing match back to Texas.

Brains offers a post-debate version of his semi-regular Democratic showdown update.

In your Gohmert Pyle-ism of the week, Louie Gohmert called Robert Mueller an "anal opening."

Nancy Pelosi surrendered again.

Paradise in Hell reinterprets Ozzie Osbourne's Crazy Train for Donald Trump.


World

Trump got his ass kicked royally by Xi Jinping at the G20 summit, over Huawei, and over tariff-related issues as well. Listen to how listlessly flat his voice sounds on the video at that first link. (Sorry, CNN wouldn't let me embed.)

Or try this:


--> --> --> -->

#TxLege — the myth of the 'moderate Republican' and the inside-the-Mopac gaggle

I've mentioned the inside-the-Mopac gaggle a few times before. Texas mainstream media aren't all bad all the time, but, the political reporters, and even more the analysts and pundits from the legacy print media, and the new online folks like the Trib, are often as problematic as their inside-the-Beltway peers in DC. (Some exceptions, like Jonathan Tilove, and Bud Kennedy from his remove in Fort Worth, do bat above average a fair chunk of the time.)

And, of course, that's why I created the inside-the-Mopac phrase.

Yesterday's Joe Straus retirement announcement did just the opposite, by and large, of bringing the cream to the top. Turds in the punchbowl, to use another metaphor, would be more correct.

I think I would have thrown up in Joe Straus' mouth had I seen the phrase "moderate Republican" once more. (The vomitorious feeling was compounded by Patrick Svitek at the Trib, in a clear swipe at Tom Wakely, saying that Andrew White was the "serious candidate" Dems have been waiting for to run for governor.)

Anyway, Joe Straus is NOT a "moderate Republican."

That's because no such thing exists in the Texas Legislature, or in state-level executive offices, whether elected or appointed.

I could accept the phrase "moderate conservative."

But "moderate"? Absolutely not.

I refuse to participate in the inside-the-Mopac's enabling the Texas GOP of today by erecting a glass house of Overton Windows.

Some of them did mention that Straus signed off on the sanctuary cities bill, at least implying that he could have further moderated it, if not blocked it completely, a la the bathroom bill lite that got some traction in the House.

But, the turd-polishing label of moderate Republican still gets attached to him.

This was only added to by Chris Hooks not only calling Straus a moderate, but writing something that looked like Hooks was offering his services as media spin doctor should Straus make the Indy run for governor.

I swear, Bernard and Audre Rapaport must be turning over in their graves every time one of Hooks' pieces runs in the Observer.

Joe Straus retiring as House Speaker in the #txlege (updated)

Frenemies Joe Straus and Greg Abbott

Texans who are political-minded know this is a seismic shift.

Texas Speaker of the House Joe Straus, who is in his fifth term, announced today he is not running for re-election.

First, what next for Joe? He announced he wants to keep influencing the Texas GOP in other ways. But he seemed to rule out any immediate run for political office, as in appearing to say "pass" for 2018.

That would seem to put the kibosh on friend Brains' speculations from earlier this year that Straus might look at an independent run for governor.

But —

1. Never say never with a politician.
2. And always look for their wiggle room.

Straus doesn't rule out future political runs, whether in 2018 or later. Nor does he rule out that his attempts to influence the state GOP could be done as an "independent" governor.

And, that all said, since I put a poll on Twitter, we're gonna have one here. Look right, in the right-hand rail. I've got multiple polls right now, so you might have to look carefully. But, vote in all of them.

In a presser after the Facebook announcement, per the Chronic and elsewhere, Straus said "I don't think so" and "no plan today" about running for governor. He also said he "highly doubt(ed)" he would be on the 2018 ballot.

However, none of those is "no."

My odds right now? About 10 percent that he would do it. It would take a massive war chest, among other things, but Texas Association of Business might well do it, over the bathroom bill if nothing else. And, he's reportedly (as of June 30) got $10 million already in his campaign war chest. And, over the past several years, he's the No. 1 fundraiser among state legiscritters.

And via "Joe Straus Republicans" in the House, he's got a network of ground-level support possibility.

If the door is open a crack, he'll neither open it wider for public consumption nor Katy bar the door  until after Thanksgiving, with the Dec. 11 filing deadline, is my guess.

Second question — who replaces him as Speaker?

I'm guesstimating that Straus is likely to try to line up support for Byron Cook. Would that be enough to put him over the top?

And, scratch that. Per the Chronic, Cook is also bowing out. Sounds like this might have been coordinated. Or, at a minimum, Cook didn't want an Arrow shirt from the tea partiers and when Straus gave him a heads up, he said "I'm outta here too."

John Zerwas, who falls somewhat between the Straus wing and nutbar wing of the Texas GOP, though closer overall to the Straus wing, has announced his candidacy for the Speakership. Phil King, who is most definitely from the nutbar wing, is also in. Eric Johnson has indicated interest in being the token Democrat.

Per Erica Greider, if there are 12 Republicans a top House Dem would support for speaker, then one of those GOPers, if he or she brings the other 11 along, that means Dems need to win 9 net seats in November 2018 or else one of those "dirty dozen" needs to find at least 9 other GOPers plus that group of 12, to pull a Straus.

Oh, and you inside-the-Mopac media? Stop calling Straus a "moderate Republican."

STRAUS FUTURE

Does Straus want the Lite Gov spot, if he doesn't challenge Abbott but wants to keep his thumb on the scale of Texas Republican politics from the inside? I kind of doubt it. There's few Joe Straus Republicans in the Texas Senate and I think he'd face a fair amount of semi-open rebellion, even with his best manipulation of committee assignments.

Of course, there IS one other statewide office.

Since Matthew Dowd already bowed out as an independent candidate, Straus coulllldddd run against one Rafael Cruz for the Senate. I don't see that as likely, as it would remove Joe from state-level politics, but ... you never know.

Brains weighs in with thoughts and links.

==

Update, Dec. 17: JoeBob DID say he was going to stay involved with the Texas GOP's future in some way or another. Strangely, he's been silencio the last few weeks as Strangeabbott's kicked various "Straus Republicans" in the shins.

Empower Texas is limper than Battleground Texas

Hey, Scott Turner? At least Wendy Davis broke 35 percent against Greg Abbott. You couldn't even break 15 percent against Joe Straus. Even if we limit it to your own party, you barely broke 20 percent in the Texas Speaker of the House race.

Apparently a lot of GOPers agree with Straus:

“Small members sought to divide us up with misleading and personal attacks,” Straus said. “But you cannot effectively govern this House by dividing it.

Heh, heh. "Small members." 

Actually, Robert Garrett at the Snooze notes Straus was probably referring in part to two non-members, Michael Quinn Sullivan, the infamous "Mucus," and Tim Dunn.

So, big fail for Empower Texas, which was the pusher behind the Speaker's challenge.

That said, Turner should be one more reminder to state and national Democrats that they don't necessarily have a lock on minority voters.

Next: Seeing if Joe Straus believes Glenn Hegar on how much money the Lege has to spend, or if he believes reality, which is a couple of billion less.

Straus has, in his previous terms as speaker, generally belonged to the reality-based community, at least its slender GOP wing.

Texas Republicans comment on the alleged #BorderCrisis

Dan Patrick, aka The Stinking Anglo Formerly Known as Danny Goeb™, said that he thought all of the alleged juvenile illegals, or Ill Eagles, were actually adults, probably midgets, in the youngest ages, but that adults could look like 10-year-olds.

"Everybody knows that Mexicans are all short, as well as stinky," he said.

Greg Abbott, continuing to remember that he has not a Mexican, but a Mexican-American wife, said that legal entry into the United States made Mexican-Americans taller and cleaner. He also denied that he was using Ill Eagles to dig the conservation-evading water well on his Austin lawn even deeper.

Ken Paxton said that the new criminal ethics complaint filed against him was obviously an attempt to undermine his planned new get-tough-on-illegals policy. He also denied that he had formed a limited partnership company to trade in employment futures of Ill Eagles.

Rick Perry said he was naming Sean Hannity an honorary brigadier general in the Texas National Guard. Actual illegal immigrants, knowing that, even for a wingnut, Hannity can't shoot straight, uttered a collective "Nemo problemo!"

Wendy Davis, stealing a page from Poppy Bush as she continued moving further to the right, promised "kinder, gentler border toughness" if elected governor. She then, in a further bid to keep from fading into irrelevance, said she would allow rich Ill Eagles to cross the border, if they would give her campaign $5,000 and then do five weeks of unpaid volunteer work.

David Dewhurst started thinking silently to himself that he might just have been lucky to lose the Lite Guv primary to The Stinking Anglo Formerly Known as Danny Goeb™. He then checked to make sure the Ill Eagles had mowed the greens at River Oaks Country Club.

Joe Straus, remembering that his ancestors had escaped from Beyond the Pale, kept relatively quiet for other reasons.

David Alameel said that he would spend "whatever it takes" to secure the border if he were elected to the Senate. But, he denied contributing funds to the Dallas Diocese of the Republic of Texas in the past.

Ted Cruz said freeing right-wing repression in a Hispanic country was far different than fleeing left-wing repression in a Hispanic country. Canadian Bacon™ then said that Cubans, unlike Mexicans, never stank.

John Cornyn muttered some senseless shit in another attempt to be as much of a wingnut as Cruz.

Louie Gohmert was strangely quiet, leaving seasoned observers to think he was going to trump everybody else's nutbar level sometime next week.

Davis and Alameel then looked around at being on a list of Republicans and shrugged their shoulders.

Texas early post-runoff election rumors

Kinky Friedman, moving from campaigner to general gadabout (for now), has reportedly borrowed an idea from Dan Patrick for his latest border-patrolling idea. Rather than "Five Mexican generals" being bribed to patrol the border better, it's "Five Mexican generals with bars of Ivory Soap" to keep out stinky Ill Eagles. A Texas Ranger will patrol for stinky Mexicans already here and report direct to The Stinking Anglo Formerly Known as Danny Goeb™. (Feel free to borrow.)

Joe Straus reportedly has bought a tranquilizer gun and Taser, and they're both located under the Speaker of the House's podium, within easy reach, just in case possible future Lt. Gov. Danny Goeb needs to be "managed" if he's ever in the Texas House. There's no word if he has a psychiatrist on cellphone speed dial.

Patrick, meanwhile, would reportedly set strict conditions on debating Democratic lite guv opponent Leticia Van de Putte. He allegedly would ask her to pass a "clean Mexican aroma test." Mental health issues were not going to be allowed to be part of any debate, he allegedly said.

Van de Putte, meanwhile, was rumored to be taking a page from LBJ's famous 1964 campaign against Barry Goldwater, namely, a slogan: "In your guts, you know he's nuts."

David Alameel may have been overheard saying that he would spend "whatever it takes" to not lose to John Cornyn by more than 15 percentage points. 

Ken Paxton allegedly decided he would take Alameel's self-financing Senate campaign one better in his run for state AG. There were rumors he was discussing setting up a private trading site where he could sell investment shares in his campaign.

Greg Abbott denied rumors that The Stinking Anglo Formerly Known as Danny Goeb™ had asked if the wife that Abbott had recently discovered to be Mexican-American stank. He also denied rumors that he threatened to run over The Stinking Anglo with his wheelchair if The Stinking Anglo ever talked about his wife again.

Texas Lege: More #TexasSolutions budget fear-mongering in 2015?

Texas House Speaker Joe Straus

On the surface, Texas Speaker of the House Joe Straus' call for all gas tax revenues to actually be devoted to roads sounds great, doesn't it?

Especially when, a year ago, TxDOT was talking about turning interstate access roads in oilfield-heavy areas back to gravel. But, per this Straus column (hat tip, Bay Area Houston), there's more beneath the surface.

First, Straus notes that money from dedicated funds was sequestered in the past. With that unavailable, wait for GOP wingnuts to talk about the need to cut the rest of the budget even more.

Here's Straus:

This November, voters will also consider a constitutional amendment transferring some revenue from oil and gas production taxes to the highway fund.

Given that surplus oil and gas taxes currently go into the Rainy Day Fund, that means less money there, as John also notes at Bay Area Houston.

But, wait? Didn't we just pass a constitutional amendment last year that said we'd use excess RDF money to fund revolving loan accounts for water infrastructure projects? Er, yes!

Of course, the likes of Straus will say that money's being borrowed, not taken, the water money. And, it's that financial brilliance that illustrates Denial ain't just a river in Egypt. And Straus represents the not-totally-nutbar wing (or back porch, or single piece of decking flagstone) of the Texas GOP.

Of course, as the drought which is NOT caused or abetted in any way by human beings, according to anybody to the right of Straus, continues, Denial ain't a river out in West Texas, either.

Borrowed, stolen, wisely used, whatever, the wingnuts will call it another "run" on the RDF, which they want to protect like Jack D. Ripper's precious bodily fluids.

So, expect fear-mongering over that in 2015, too. Wingnuts withholding vital essence from the state of Texas.

Meanwhile, Eye on Williamson notes the ultimate problem. It's "Texas solutions" that never mention taxes; he's referring to this column by Chuy Hinojosa. Of course, the Pointy Abandoned Object State™never has any trouble coming up with new fees for services, programs, and licenses, but, we can't call any of those "taxes," now, can we?

Note to Chuy,  Battleground Texas, and all others: You ain't getting anywhere if you keep to tiptoe around the manure passing for GOP financial brilliance. If your "solutions" don't involve telling Texans services cost money, they ain't solutions. So, if I hear "Texas Solutions" out of one more Dem mouth, I'll reach for Jerry Patterson's revolver.)

(Note to McBlogger: See, you can write stuff like this stone cold sober and without a single profanity, either.)

And, neither Bay nor Eye mentioned the bigger storm cloud over 2015 budgeting. I'm going to assume that the state loses the final, re-heard version of the school finance lawsuit, and that the financial remedies imposed by Judge Dietz are significant.

Per the reason Dietz decided to re-hear the case, after the 2013 Lege seemed so generous, there's this:

"Any and all funding changes are temporary at best. There is absolutely no requirement they be in existence beyond the year 2015," said Rick Gray, a lawyer for the Equity Center, which represents about 400 school districts, the bulk of them poor, in the sprawling litigation that involves five other parties. "It was an exceedingly small step in the right direction."

Exactly. And, per everything I mentioned above, stand by for some new Pointy Abandoned Object State™solution. For schools. For water. For roads.

And, these problems are all incestuous and intertwined. I already noted that we could have a roads funding state amendment competing with a water one. Well, part of the reason not all of the gas tax is going to roads is that hundreds of million of dollars of it has been going to ...

Wait for it ...

Wait for it ...

Look below the fold for it ...

Dewhurst: Playing politics with juveniles

This op-ed from the Odessa American, pretty much sums it up.

Both Lite Guv David Dewhurst (and Speaker Joe Straus, for that matter), are all about claiming to be fiscal conservatives, etc.

But, almost as much as our state's money-waster in chief, Attorney General Greg Abbott, when fiscal conservativism hits the reality road of political priorities, in this case, paying off political buddies in the Lege, at the expense of not doing right for juveniles under the state's charge, it's a different story. (That said, I'm not sure any of the other blind mice who are challenging Dudley Dewless would be any less political on an issue like this, if it were THEIR political BFFs at stake, or at stakeholders.)

Here's the story, per an Austin American-Statesman piece referenced by the OA. I'm using a long block quote which I will trim as much as I can to fit fair use issues:

The Corsicana Residential Treatment Center is a rather benign name that belies a facility with a troubled history of problems. In 2010, a federal review discovered a high number of assaults in facilities run the Texas Youth Commission, including the Corsicana unit, which notched the dubious distinction of having the second-highest sexual assault rate in the country. ...

There were also reports of problems with staffing and structural problems. ...

To make the facility meet modern standards would cost Texas taxpayers $26 million. That number was for repairs — not for increased staff at a facility that has also encountered shortages of mental health professionals to care for the youth held there.

The Corsicana facility was an ideal candidate for closure, and in 2013 legislators voted to do just that, amid plenty of self-congratulation over a job well done.

There are some Capitol stories, however, that resist a happy ending, and the Corsicana facility is one of them. ...

The institution has powerful friends who include Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who is campaigning for re-election on a record of government frugality, and House Speaker Joe Straus, R-San Antonio. 

Though Straus isn’t given to chest-thumping histrionics, he is loyal to his lieutenants. One of those is state Rep. Byron Cook, R-Corsicana, in whose district the facility sits. Cook chairs the House State Affairs Committee.

Dewhurst is courting the support of state Sen. Bryan Birdwell, R-Granbury. The Corsicana facility is in Birdwell’s district. ...

The Corsicana facility, ... at one time housed 200 youth committed to its care; now it houses 60. ...

But those 60 detainees translate to 280 jobs that would leave Corsicana were the facility to be shuttered as the Legislature clearly intends.

So, Dewhurst and Straus sent letters to juvenile justice officials last month saying the closure decision warrants further review. As co-chairmen of the Legislative Budget Board, they can spend money when the Legislature is not in session

There's one other piece here, which both the OA and the AAS have neglected.

I've long been on record as saying Texas, even if it wants to keep a part-time Lege, at least needs to go to every year, rather than ever other year, legislative sessions. Yes, a lot of those in power want to run Texas like a banana republic, and a Lege that meets every two years makes that easier.

But, do we have to put up with that, including the banana republic issue of the LBB being able to play fiscal kingmaker when the Lege is gone? No.

Of course, the LBB could be reigned in by the Lege as it now stands. Require any spending, or spending shuffling, of more than X dollars without a demonstrable emergency, to require a special session.

Three-party monte in Texas

Good observation here that Texas has three parties, except I'd rephrase it as: Democrats, conservative but not nutso Republicans and nutso Republicans.

On two financial issues, the use of the Rainy Day Fund for the next budget, and further reforming the franchise tax to generate more money for the state in general and education in particular, it's clear that Gov. Helmethair, Rick Perry, is a nutso.

It's pretty clear Speaker Joe Straus is not.

That leaves Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst as the tiebreaker. Dewhurst has in general struck me as suaver, more urbane Perry but not much else.

Now, given his claim that education funding can even be increased in the new budget, without mentioning the Rainy Day Fund one way or the other, he strikes me as also being even more disingenuous than Perry. Selling state land? Outside what's in state parks, most of it's not worth a lot unless the state sells the mineral rights with it, which would be dumb squared.

That said, the first link above says another way of slicing the GOP divide, speaking of Dewhurst being a suaver, more urbane Perry, is between urban and rural constituencies. In light of that, one of the state's two big urban conservative papers, the Morning Snooze, opines that the Texas House is cutting the 2012-13 budget too much. At the same time, the Snooze abdicates editorial responsibility by going Ronald Reagan in talking about looking for "government inefficiencies."

Straus 1, wingnuts 0

Joe Straus was easily re-elected Speaker of the Texas House, on a 132-15 vote.

Wingnuts, anti-Semitic bigotry, hot tempers and more all lose.

As Straus knows:

"Division, threats of retribution, attacks on people's religious beliefs, and distortions of people's records have no place in this House," Straus said after winning the post. "The men and women who are remembered beyond their years are not those who sow the seeds of discord, but those who plant for a future they may never see."

Hmm. Wonder if the Giffords shooting persuaded some waverers to stay with Straus? That said, I still think Democrats should be very careful about working with the GOP, even with Straus in charge, if the party shows little to no realism on budget issues.

Now, if the GOP in the Texas Senate pledges NOT to do what it DID do in 2009 - that is, lowering the supermajority bar from 2/3 to 3/5 - House AND Senate Dems may work more with their GOP counterparts. But, since the GOP now has a House supermajority, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Jewboy, you can't run the Texas House

WTF? Some House GOP Christian conservatives want to depose Texas House Speaker Joe Straus just because he's Jewish.

No, seriously.

Is Texas facing a 25 percent budget shortfall?

It could be. Forget the $18 billion being bandied about. Gov. "Economic Miracle" (only by crony contracts that get unfulfilled) Rick Perry isn't necessarily telling the truth. It could be worse.

First, the bare background:

That central question of the state’s budget debate isn’t answered yet, at least officially. Estimates of the shortfall range from $11 billion on the low side to $25 billion on the high end. At issue is the difference between the comptroller’s assessment of how much money the state will bring in during the next two years, and the budget writers’ determination of how much money it will take to run the state in that same period.

$18 billion has been the normal number. $25 billion will be a lot worse. Bill White needs to run some last-minute ads on this.

But, then, an establishmentarian paper like the Times, perhaps kissing Tricky Rocky Gov. Helmethair's ass, says, "don't worry," so to speak. Or, so this could be read:

The actual shortfall number matters only for rhetorical purposes. The important thing is that it is somewhere between one in four and one in five of the state’s total discretionary dollars.

Well, there's a huge difference between $11 and $25 billion, and huge enough between $18 and $25 billion. The second sentence I agree with, on the percentages; but, percentages are just dollars, expressed differently, in this case, so it's poor writing at best and disingeneousness at worst to print that first sentence.

That said, there's also room for fudging in Texas, just like in California:

The budget writers’ number is a lot looser, because what you think the budget should be depends on what you think Texas should be doing. One idea is to figure the costs of the programs running now, assume they’ll continue to run pretty much the same way and adjust only for variables like population growth and the price tags of various state services, like paying for medical care. ... (I)t’s possible to hide $3 billion or so with tactics like delaying big payments from the end of one budget to the beginning of the next.

Speaker Joe Straus, and everybody else, especially GOP, swears "no new taxes," of course. That said, Texas has increased a number of **fees** in Helmethair's decade in power.

So, if it's a $25 billion shortfall, your next car registration could cost $100, perhaps. Your next driver's license $30. Your hunting license could go up another $10. Nothing "rhetorical" about that.

That said, Comptroller Susan Combs needs to tell us more before Nov. 2, or some staffer needs to leak. We as a state, and as a nation that could see this "confrontational cowboy" run for president in two years, can't afford to wait until December for more detailed budget information.

Speaker Straus a boost for urban Texas

Over at THE Dallas Morning News, William McKenzie has the basic insight on why Texans of any political stripe, whether Repubilican, Democratic, independent or third party, if they’re from around Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio or Houston, should welcome Joe Straus as Speaker of the Texas House rather than Tom Craddick:

Straus' emergence is a good thing. The San Antonio Republican is inclusive, understands modern Texas' challenges and hails from an urban area. The latter part is especially important since so many of the state's problems stem from issues surrounding its cities, whether it's transportation systems, air pollution or water supplies.

Indeed. Craddick’s Midland is smaller than a number of DFW or Houston suburbs. Even Mdiland-Odessa combined is smaller than a few.

Ditto for the Amarillo and Lubbock – previous Speaker Pete Laney living halfway between the two in Hale Center.

Not since the end of Gib Lewis in 1993 has Texas has an urban/suburban central/eastern Texas Speaker, and Fort Worth in 1993 was still Cowtown to some degree that today’s Fort Worth isn’t.

Straus, Perry, Hutchison and 2010

Over at THE Dallas Morning News, William McKenzie has an excellent multi-part column on this year’s Texas Legislature, including thoughts on the apparent new House Speaker, Joe Straus.

And, I got to thinking, after reading the last section, will Straus’ leadership of the House affect the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary between incumbent Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison? Here’s the grafs from McKenzie that got me thinking:

Perry will consider about every bill this year with an eye toward his 2010 primary race against Hutchison. …

Perry will portray himself as something other than a D.C. Republican like Hutchison. Look for him to side with social conservatives and anti-taxers, which could lead to end-of-session problems. For example, would he veto a new way to pay for water projects and harm Texas?

But, we know the gov doesn’t have a lot of power, or always even a lot of legislative throw weight, in Texas. What if Straus is just a little less cooperative with this idea than Tom Craddick would have been?

Or, what if Straus is so successful as Speaker, he gets his own political throw weight and supports Hutchison in some way?

Update: Weighing in on the "demise" of the Trans Texas Corridor, Gov. Helmethair claims he'll have no problems working with Straus. (And, could we just pay some Iraqis to "graciously detain" him for a while?

And, was this all a matter of coincidence, anyway, on "dismantling" and renaming the TTC?

Hutchison thinks not.