Buddy, can you spare $700 million? For Ohtani, or the Dodgers?

Everybody else is writing about Shohei Ohtani's record-breaking contract with the Dodgers, so why shouldn't I?

First, per the header? I think it's a big fat overpay. Got in an argument months ago with a chud on r/mlb about the success rate of pitchers coming back from two TJs. Yeah, the second is not a "full TJ," but still. IMO, he'll be a batter-only player by the time he and Dodger Blue are halfway through that 10-year contract.

I add in a blog post from this summer about "the cautionary tale of Jacob deGrom." Even if he's still raking like currently, that alone should knock the contract down to $50M/year.

That said, as everybody knows by now, this contract is massively eferred

Second, this is Los Angeles. They don't need Ohtani on the team to goose fan numbers, so scratch that.

Third? Does Mookie Betts now think he's underpaid? Regret not having an opt-out clause in his contract? Speaking of? Mookie Betts' best two years by WAR are better than Ohtani's top 2.

Fourth, re small-market teams? Rich teams should not be allowed to defer payments on a contract just to dodge the lux tax line. That's doubly true as we learn the deferment is $68 million per year of the $70M. It's more ridiculous than NFL contracts with guaranteed vs non-guaranteed money. (Question: How much do small-market teams bitch during discussions for the next CBA? How much do mid-tier free agents, if they think about it?)

Yeah, Ben Lindbergh at The Ringer, in his 17 Questions about Ohtani's Contract piece, says that this won't really benefit big-market teams. But, he adds that the current MLB language requires a team to have money to make good on a deferred payment structure within two years of the deferred money starting to kick in. Good luck with that, small market teams.

That said?

Fifth, re small-market teams? MLB needs a salary floor as well as a lux tax line, soft cap, whatever. For the A's/Las Vegas Whazzups, Rays, Marlins, Royals, etc.? If you don't maintain an MLB payroll of $80M or whatever? You get dinged revenue sharing money in future years. Or docked draft choices. Or other punitive actions. After all, the whole point of revenue sharing is that small market teams have extra money to spend to be competitive. (Question: How much do big-market teams bitch during discussions for the next CBA? How much do mid-tier free agents, if they think about it?)

Sixth? After he IS back pitching in 2025, I'd laugh if he joins Clayton Kershaw on the playoff pitching flops roster.

Seventh? If Arte Moreno has an ounce of brains, he looks to trade Mike Trout and accept that it's time to rebuild.

Pujols to Dodgers!? Some untold story in Anaheim, or Phat Albert's revenge porn signing?

I did NOT NOT NOT have the Los Angeles Dodgers on my Albert Pujols bingo/dance card, but reportedly, that is exactly what is happening.

And, that's the subject of this post, per this header.

The Angels released Phat Albert because he wanted more playing time and they wouldn't guarantee it. It boiled down to whether they're better with Taylor Ward in RF and Jared Walsh at 1B rather than Walsh playing halfway out of position in right and Pujols at first. And, the answer is likely the former, and Pujols doesn't want to ride pine, with Shohei Ohtani ahead of him at DH, too, he would ride plenty of pine. Neither did Alex Rodriguez at the end of his career, so one could say "can't blame Pujols."

One CAN question how well he can be self-honest when he told the Haloes he thought he could play every day AT FIRST. That story notes that he wouldn't have been playing there at all had Dexter Fowler not had a season-ending injury.

(Update, June 15: One month in, and small sample size caveats, plus platooning caveats, and all? Phat Albert's Dodgertown time shows him having his best batting since his first year with the Haloes.)

BUT?

The Dodgers have made CLEAR he's coming off the bench.

Red Satan says Max Muncy can slide over to second or third base at times. That, in turn, would let them supposedly rest Justin Turner and/or keep him at third and play Gavin Lux less.

But, that ain't happening THAT much.

Red Satan also ignores the Blue also has Matt Beaty to play first.

And, it ignores in passing that the Dodgers are an NL team with no DH except in interleague play.

So, what gives?

Per the rest of the header, some sort of revenge signing? I mean, this IS a cross-town issue.

If Albert were honest and said "I hate losing and I'm ditching this Coke stand," some people might say, OK. But, he said (per the Angels and he's not denied it) that he wants to play more, and that ain't happening.

And, the Dodgers do NOT need a "veteran presence." They've got plenty of that in the field and on the mound both, with Mookie Betts, Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw, David Price et al. And, shit, they won the World Series last year!

So now, The Machine actually looks worse than A-Rod in the twilight of his career. Now, there could be some unknown story in Anaheim. Maybe, like Aaron Rodgers seeing the Pack draft his replacement Jordan Love and being pissed, he thinks it could have been handled better. (If that's the case, Albert: here's the handwriting on the wall; please read.) 

And, at least he's lucky he just plays 1B. I am old enough to remember Willie Mays, whom Albert passed last year on the HR race, falling down rounding second in the 1973 World Series. It was a sad moment.

Oh, and Albert? Your range factor per game and per 9 innings? WORSE than Miguel Cabrera, for doorknob's sake. You've arguably been about as bad as him for 3-4 years.

Per my notes above, whether this is revenge porn over Haloes issues or just self-delusion? Either case, it's sad. I mean, as I said in my tribute piece last week, I'm pretty sure the man is 42, not 41, and I'm open to him being 43 years old.

===

From the Dodgers' POV, I guess it's better than promoting somebody from the minors. But, when Cody Bellinger comes back, the roster will be even more crowded. Plus, will Albert really accept not playing much, especially when Bellinger DOES come back? Yeah, the Angels talked about his mentorship and such, but ... we'll see. 

And, weirder yet? And further undercutting Pujols getting playing time? A week ago, I suggested the Rays were a good candidate for Pujols because DH Yoshi Tsutsugo sucked. Well, the Rays released him ... and the Dodgers signed him.

===

Now, a request to top baseball reporters.

1. A fairly serious grilling of Pujols on "why the Dodgers," since it contradicts his playing time claims. Since MLBTR was dumb enough to bite on rumors by Jon Heyman and Fansided, when few others were pushing the narrative of "3-4 teams are interested," get some confirmation. Off the records are accepted. (MLBTR, don't say you were "just reporting," even if you did offer a later update from Heyman. You could have had some "couching in skepticism" with the links from the start.) AND, there's no nostalgia involved, unlike this person on baseball Twitter claiming Pujols WOULD ride pine to come back to St. Louis. (And, before DeJong's injury opening playing time for Carpenter at second with Edman moving to short, that would be PLENTY of pine.) And, with all this added news, getting close to doing a new update.

2. Ditto on the Angels. Ask GM Perry Minasian and prez John Carpino (as well as off the records, all being fine) if there was some tension we've not been previously told about. As noted, had Dex not been hurt, he wouldn't have been playing that much in the first place with the Angels, unless Joe Maddon is a sentimental idiot when he makes out lineup cards.

#Twitter smack talk from #baseball history

Old Hoss Radbourn, first
Twitter smackdown artist
and verschizzle master.

Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie getting Twitter smack, from the official Orioles account among other places, for wearing a not totally innocuous, but not highly offensive, T-shirt at the Game 3 ALCS post-game presser reminds me, that in the spirit of Old Hoss Radbourn, we need to look at some great player-to-player Twitter smackdowns of the past, at least of the postseason.

Here's two classics, one from 1932 and one from 1988, to get us started.

@CharlieRoot: That ball’s still traveling. I called it. You blew it. Don't deny it. — @TheRealBabe

Or, here’s some more verschnizzle we should have had on Twitter, from the late 80s:

@TheEckMan: Put that in your ‘stache and smoke it. — @GibbyGotGrit

Moderner times? This should have been a classic, from 2011:

@LilWash @LowerThanLowe: I will see YOU and YOU tomorrow night! — @FreeseFrame

Or, a few years earlier, from 2009:
@MrNovember: Don't gloat yet. I got five rings before you. — @MrOctober

Or even an in-game one, maybe, from 1954:
@ForBetterOrForWertz: Ball, meet glove. Indians, meet the end. — @SayHeyKid

#Dodgers make big move with Friedman; Mattingly firing talk heats up

Andrew Friedman, Dollars-bound / Photo via CBS Sports

After a week or so of rumors, the Los Angeles Dollars, as Ken Rosenthal has called them, have swept in and gotten their hoped-for baseball genius.

(Tampa Bay) Rays executive vice president of baseball operations and GM Andrew Friedman has left the team to join the Dodgers, both teams have announced. Friedman takes over as the Dodgers president of baseball operations and (will?) be allowed to hire his own GM. …
 Friedman's role will presumably be similar to Theo Epstein's with the Cubs. Epstein is the team's president of baseball operations and Jed Hoyer is the GM. Ned Colletti, who had been the Dodgers GM since 2005, will remain with the team as a senior advisor to Kasten.

Very interesting. Of course, a guy named Ned Colletti was holding that position. Kasten and company booted him upstairs to a yet-undefined senior management position. 

Is manager Don Mattingly next? Analysts say that he doesn't fit Friedman's style, whatever that may be. And let's not forget that Magic Johnson is a part owner of the Dodgers. That's the Magic who, as a Lakers player, got Paul Westhead fired as head coach AFTER he'd won an NBA title, in favor of Pat Riley. And, of course, Riley turned out better. So, don't tell me Magic isn't tempted. Semi-jokingly, the #grit-laden hero of the Dollars' last World Series, Kirk Gibson, is available.

And, the Dollars' loss of the National League Division Series this year was capped with a managerial decision that drew plenty of head-scratching, namely,  the benching of Yasiel Puig, still arguably the team's best everyday player despite being in a slump.

I don't know if Mattingly is gone. But, when your managerial decisions make Mike Matheny look brilliant and even Ned Yost above average?

Joe Maddon, your new LA Dollars manager in waiting?
(Reinhold Matay / Associated Press)

The Rays' current manager, Joe Maddon, is getting some speculation, of course. He's under contract for another year, though. A low-market team like the Rays would charge a high price to trade him. Does Friedman want to wait a year? Would Mattingly want to wait a year with the feeling that, short of winning a World Series, he's a very lame duck? If he asked for a buyout, would anybody else want to come in as a full-season interim?

Also, does anybody know if Maddon wants to live in LA half the year (or more) or not? I think that’s the first question newly-elated Dodger fans should be asking; and Tampa fans shouldn’t totally lose heart. OTOH, he was a protege of Mike Scioscia, so he's been in SoCal before.

Maddon, meanwhile, is saying the right things for Tampa fans right now.

Maddon said he and his wife recently moved into a Tampa home once owned by former USC and Tampa Bay Buccaneers Coach John McKay. 

 "I'm really embedded here pretty well," he said. "The roots are pretty strong. We have a great infrastructure here. We have a great operation. We have great people. 

"There's so much to like. There's only one negative. That's the ballpark. It's a big negative. But that's about it." 

That said, how could he do otherwise? If he said "I love LA," then Bud Selig's kicking him, Friedman, or both, in the ass for tampering.

And, per this 2013 ESPN story, he sure seems to be happy where he is now, not just as a manager, but in general.

On the third hand? He can name his price on a new contract. Would it be the moon? Would Tampa pay? Surely not, on the second rhetorical.

My thought? If Friedman really wants him, and he really wants to move, if the price is mainly money (to the degree Rob Manfred will allow) and draft choices, pull that trigger.

Next question is, will Friedman get the Dollars over the National League playoffs hump and into the World Series, whoever his manager is, where they've not been since 1988? In the last decade, their traditional rivals, the Giants, sport two WS wins, and old-time NL foe Cardinals have two wins and two other appearances.

It's not guaranteed. With a Dollars-sized payroll come Dollars-sized expectations to show how "Moneyball" performs on financial steroids. It's my contention that the alleged father of "Moneyball," Billy Beane, turned down the chance to be Theo Epstein in Boston before the Sawks hired the real Theo, for precisely that reason. (Sandy Alderson is as much the actual father of "Moneyball" as Beane.)

And, with a payroll that could approach $250M next year, especially with dead-armed middle reliever Brian Wilson exercising his $9.5M player option, and semi-dead-armed starter Dan Haren an idiot if he doesn't do the same with his $10M player option, that's a lot of lux tax money to pay in Los Angeles. That's not to mention the retirement, and pitching hole that needs filling, of Josh Beckett, and the free agency of Hanley Ramirez, either.

Will the #Dodgers fire Don Mattingly after losing to the #Cardinals?

At places like Hardball Talk, among fans at posts like this, and bloggers with a theme alike, that's a halfway serious question.

(Update, Oct. 14 — With a new VP for baseball operations "stolen" from Tampa, the fire Mattingly talk is heating up.)

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly, for whatever reason, benched Yasiel Puig, still arguably the team's best everyday player despite being in a slump.

And, when Matt Adams hit a 3-jack home run off Clayton Kershaw, bringing home Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta to propel the Cardinals to the National League Championship Series, the second-guessing caught fire.



Donnie Baseball made it worse in the top of the ninth.

The Dodgers get a one-out walk by A.J. Ellis off Trevor Rosenthal. Great place for Puig, right?

Mattingly agrees — as a pinch-runner, not a pinch hitter. Justin Turner pinch hits. And strikes out.

Dee Gordon then singles, with Puig only going to second on station-to-station pinch running. And Carl Crawford then grounds out to end the game.

Unbelievable, not only the benching itself, but not using him as a pinch-hitter.

Jonah Keri said this was Donnie B.'s second mistake. He says that, with Kershaw at 100 pitches on short rest, he would have brought in closer Kenley Jansen to face Adams. It's at least arguable.

I mean, the rest of the Dodgers' bullpen — starting with the Yankees West™ spending, willfully, $10 million in a dead-armed non-closer named Brian Wilson — is teh suck, pretty much.

I don't know if Mattingly is gone. But, when your managerial decisions make Mike Matheny look brilliant and even Ned Yost above average?

As I said on that first Hardball Talk link, Kirk Gibson's available. He's got a boatload of #grit he can teach. That said, I know at least one HUGELY "homer" Tigers fan who thinks Gibby should replace Brad Ausmus after just one season.

Finally, let's not forget that Magic Johnson is a part owner of the Dodgers. That's the Magic who, as a Lakers player, got Paul Westhead fired as head coach AFTER he'd won an NBA title, in favor of Pat Riley. And, of course, Riley turned out better. So, don't tell me Magic isn't tempted.

And, per Ken Rosenthal, the LA Dollars (stealing and saving!) will spend more money, too. (Kershaw's new mega-contract starts next year.)

#Cardinals and Jhonny Peralta, NL MVP?

Jhonny Peralta

Yes, in a year that's a bit skimpy for hitters in the NL, with one exception, and with one incredible pitching year, many touts are touting Clayton Kershaw for the National League's Most Valuable Player award as well as the Cy Young.

There area  few challengers, though.

Giancarlo Stanton is having a big year with the bat, having just socked homer No. 35.

However, on Baseball-Reference, he's only No. 3 in wins above average. He trails the Braves' Jason Heyward.

This is a good pause point for two issues.

The first is whether pitchers should get consideration for the MVP or not since they already have the Cy Young. I'm OK with that, since there is the Hank Aaron Award (as overlooked as it may be) for best hitter of the year. I still lean toward a hitter, if things become a push.

The other issue, as illustrated in the Miguel Cabrera vs. Mike Trout race in the AL last year, is whether team record should be a factor.

That gives a bump to Clayton, a bit of a ding to Stanton, and, if the Braves can nab a wild card, a definite dump to Heyward.

It also gives a bump to the No. 4 on the NL WAR list.

This is a man that St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz has been touting throughout the year for his defense — Cards shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Peralta has the second best oWAR of his career, and far and away the best dWAR, largely, but not entirely, due to the Cards' frequent use of defensive shifts. (His dWAR puts him within half a defensive WAR point of defensive whiz kid and Ozzie Smith impersonator Andrelton Simmons, even.)

Heyward is doing the same, at a position that, while not quite as important defensively as shortstop, is important enough, at right field.

As of today, the Cardinals have a two-game lead in the NL Central over the Brewers, while the Braves are 1.5 games out of the second wild card.

To me, at a minimum, that pushes Peralta into the middle of the discussion.

Clayton Kershaw: The $30M pitcher

"Gentlemen, we can rebuild his contract!"

Far beyond the "Six Million Dollar Man," we have MLB's first full-on $30M per year contract, and, it ain't for a position player.

Clayton Kershaw trumps C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander in the pitching world, along with cruising past Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, and Ryan Howard, with that monster deal from the Dodgers.

And, the craziness may not be over. For all we know, LA may still have an eyeball cast for Masahiro Tanaka, too. If that's the case, they're guaranteed to join the Yankees as a multiple repeater on breaking the pay roll cap and pay ing lux taxes. Even without Tanaka, they're well over this year, and for 2015, already at about $185 million, counting pension obligations. Yes, the cap will rise. So will their 2015 payroll, by then.

Meanwhile, Kershaw is worth approximately the current Houston Astros payroll. How sad does that feel, Stros' fans?

The other question is, can a $30M man be rebuilt if he breaks?

Kershaw has advantages of not carrying Sabathia's weight, but, we've seen Verlander already lose a bit of velocity. And Tim Lincecum certainly offers another note of caution.

Even if Kershaw doesn't fall off the map that badly, what if he's only at, say 115 on ERA+ in his 2017 fourth year?

Kershaw's contract has a five-year out; even with TV deals rising and other things, it remains to be seen which side might be more interested in pulling that trigger after 2018.

My personal thoughts?

Yeah, the Blue have money to burn, but this? I would never give a pitcher that long of a contract. That said, that's why I wasn't joking about which side might want the five-year out.

And, speaking of burning money, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Angels increase their push for Tanaka.  Vernon Wells is no longer an albatross after this year, and they're below cap level right now. Tanaka, combined with Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson is a great front three on the rotation. Yeah, the Angels still need to up grade their pen, too, but, you have to start somewhere, and Anaheim's a pitcher's park, at least moderately.

And, if Tanaka's smart? No Yankees. The splitter's a ground-ball pitch when it's not a strike pitch. Does he want that infield behind him?

#Cardinals teh stupidz at SS: Miller PLUS Freese for Profar?

Yes, you read that right.

Self-proclaimed St. Louis Cardinals expert Ray DeRousse says the Birds should offer BOTH Shelby Miller and David Freese for the Texas Rangers' prospect (or stumbling rookie phenom) Jurickson Profar to get the needed shortstop upgrade from Pete Kozma.

If that is what he thinks is a smart trade, based on the value of Profar's "prospectism," then, why not this, Ray? As I said at his post:

OK, so, if trading a good rookie MLB pitcher plus a so-so infielder for a prospect is soooooooooooo smart? Then the Dodgers should resign Mark Ellis and trade him plus Hyun-jin Ryu for Kolten Wong, right? (Or, adding to what I said there, Carl Crawford instead of Ellis, since, before last year, Freese is a more similar comp to Crawford.) Heh heh. Because that's the exact equivalent of what DeRousse is proposing. And, if I were the Cardinals, I'd take that Dodgers offer in a New York minute.

But, Ray? That ain't never happening. (I'll go back later to watch himself try to explain how this isn't the same deal, even though it is, since Ryu and Miller were almost identical as rookies, and Ellis is an older, 2B-playing rough equivalent of Freese.)

And (Nov. 7) since Miller beat out Ryu for the third finalist spot on the NL Rookie of the Year ballot, this makes my counter-analogy to DeRousse all the more true. Right, Ray?

And, agree or disagree, with me or or DeRousse, I've got a poll up now, and you can make your comment on best shortstop upgrade options.  

Hey, if you think it would take more than just Miller? OK, Miller plus Kozma, since we wouldn't need Kozma then anyway. Or, if the Rangers have to have a non-SS, give them Ryan Jackson, since Memphis had him playing OF. Or Daniel Descalso.

But, DeRousse clearly thinks more than that is needed, per a Twitter exchange and comment exchanges, even though he says he's not exclusively saying Miller plus Freese. However, he is clearly saying Miller plus someone of Freese's level, or else he would have said Miller plus Kozma right away.

It's also stupid for other reasons. Ken Rosenthal notes that the Rangers have got a logjam in the middle infield, with minor-league prospects pushing hard behind both Profar and Elvis Andrus, as well as Ian Kinsler. Even more reason not to overpay.

Anyway, Ray, contra your self-promotion, you're not a genius, either.

Note. This is, to a fair degree, a rewrite and extension of my previous post, my initial thoughts about what the Cards should do during the Hot Stove League. As I was finishing up that post, and looking for a particular player on Baseball-Reference, I came across DeRousse's post. Eventually, with the above comment by me and an exchange of several further comments with him, I decided I wanted to focus on just this issue.

That said, I would certainly consider Miller plus Kozma for Profar. But, even then, I wouldn't automatically make that trade. Whether trying to get Profar to learn how to field other positions caused that much hitting problem or what, I don't know, but ...

He couldn't hit a whole lot better than Kozma did last year. Now, if he sucked it up more to start 2014, and everybody else played the same as in 2013, then, let's talk about something like DeRousse's idea.

But, trading a rookie who actually showed something PLUS a veteran at least a bit above replacement, at an MLB-thin position? Ray, that's fucking nuts. Profar is a "prospect" who's had an initial stumble. And, for longer that Wong's late season call-up with the Cards, to riff on another comment of DeRousse's, when he said my analogy didn't fly.

It didn't fly because Ray, the Cardinals Expert(TM), is so in love with his own idea he can't let go of it.

But, I can.

First, there's another trade possibility. The Cards did a bit of tire-kicking on the Angels' Erick Aybar at midseason. I don't know why it fell through, but I'd certainly look at it again. At the same price that DeRousse proposed for Profar, I'd do this trade much more quickly. Aybar's a solid talent, league-average or better for SS at the bat, and above-average in the field.

Free agency is also a better route than DeRousse's trade idea, by far, especially if the price is right.

The Cards just bought out Jake Westbrook's option, so that's $9.5 million free. Chris Carpenter's presumed retirement frees another $12.5M. So, that's $22M to be spent on a free agent, in part, and "banked" in part.

Stephen Drew is one option. I wouldn't pay more than 3/$36M myself, but we'll see. Another is a shorter-term deal with previous shortstop Rafael Furcal, which, assuming Drew's marquee from being on a world champion leads to him being overpriced would likely be a better option.

Other free agents? Yunel Escobar would also be cheaper than Drew, and Tampa is likely to let him walk. Jhonny Peralta would be more of an offensive upgrade over Kozma. Detroit played him in the outfield when he came back from his PED suspension, but they're probably not that wedded to that as a longer term idea. He'd be more pricey than Escobar or Furcal, but less than Drew, in all likelihood. Furcal, for his age, is still the best base running option.

Update, 11:45, Nov. 4: Escobar is out of the running, as the Rays have picked up his option. That said, the $5M price tells me I'm right on what would be the max price for Furcal, and that there's affordable options out there in free agency that are better than Kozma. That said, the Cards could kick the tires on an Escobar trade.

And, as of Nov. 14, no thanks on Peralta, if he's wanting "much more" than 3/$45M, a massive, massive, overpay. Hell, 3/$45 is an overpay itself, let alone "much more," whatever that means. (What it really would mean is Tulo-range money, and in that case, I'll trade for Tulo if the price is halfway right.) There's also an attitude issue, and I don't care what fellow Tigers players said about his clubhouse presence. There's an attitude issue for him wanting that much money coming off the roiding suspension, and who's only busted 115 on OPS+ twice since 2005? 

As of Nov. 16, Christina Karhl, in her weigh-in, for some reason, ignores Aybar entirely, and also thinks Drew is available for less than $10M/year. I kind of doubt that, but ... if he is, I'd take him over Aybar for sure. Because then, we're near a salary wash, without trading anybody. Sign me up.

Given that, that's my preference, as the free agent market at shortstop is thin after the players mentioned above. And, per my caveat on Wong, I'm not expecting him to come up and move Carpenter to third to start the season. So, if Furcal will take a 1-year deal for $6M, with options taking it to $8M, with a second option year for that price, let's make a deal. (And, given Nick Punto just signed a 1-year, $3M contract, I may have overpriced Furcal. Granted, Furcal is better, but this still moves his likely price to $5M, not $6M, especially if he has some bonus targets.)

DeRousse (shock me) disagrees with all of this, citing age, contract demands, PED history. He also says, in his self-assuredness, that the Cards won't go with "stop-gap players."

Although now he appears to have changed his mind, or updated his tune, all while filtering that through different language:

It might be a wiser option for the team to use its stockpile of talented farmhands to land a less-constraining shortstop ...

I don't know what the difference is between "less constraining" (my emphasis in quote; his comment was in the backdrop of Tulo talk) and "stop-gap," but, there you go. And, there's been very occasional rumors about Furcal and steroids, but I think sensible people treat them even less seriously than the claims that Freese still has a drinking problem. (And, yes, some people make that claim, too.)

The reality on "age"?  Aybar will be 30 next year, Escobar 31, Peralta 32. None of them is "old" if you're looking at, say, a 3-year contract. They're all about the same in terms of bat and glove both. Not smash hits at SS, but more than gap-fillers. That's right, Ray, they're all more than gap-fillers. Contract demands? I said the Cards' willingness to deal should be flexible based on demand.

Well, I ruled out Drew, myself, due to likely contract. Escobar and Peralta probably wouldn't cost that much, and I laid out details of what could be done with Furcal. Aybar, at $8.5M/year, and under contract for three more years, certainly wouldn't cost much.

So, one trade option, and two free-agent options better than yours, Ray. And, a "gap-filler" who was the Cards' starting shortstop in 2012, before injury ended his 2013.

But, I'm not stopping there. I'm calling more bullshit on DeRousse's whole animus about "gap fillers." Didn't you read that the 2013 team only had six players left from 2011? Hasn't Beltran been viewed as a stop-gap player all along?
Beyond that, the idea that the Cards wouldn't have more of a "stop-gap" attitude about some positions other than others? And, why not? Mozeliak doesn't have a Yankee-sized budget. That means, unless your entire roster is near-rookie level, you have to treat some positions as more "secondary" than others. And, shortstop is probably one of them.

Back to DeRousse's own trade idea, though. I think he misreads the Rangers, too. I don't think that, as of this offseason, they would insist on his trade minimum for Profar. Now, per my midseason idea, yes, if Profar's BA is up 15 points, OBP up 20 and slugging up 30, they would. And, per my scenario, I'm OK with such talk then.

But now? No, and Ray, that's just fucking crazy.

And, if the Rangers are as crazy as Ray, I don't want to look at them as a prime trading partner then.

And, I need to start marketing myself as a Cardinals Expert(TM), I guess.

If the sarcasm of that point isn't clear, I'm developing a new level of disliking for DeRousse with every exchange of comments I have with him. Which means, if I do comment at his site in the future, it will be "one and done."

His latest is that he's sure none of these other options will happen.

Well, of course not. He's a Cardinals expert. And we'll see how he reacts to my sarcasm.

Ohh, it's an "insulting tone." Dude, if you'd get off your high horse and stop being condescending, and not just to me, maybe you wouldn't get the sarcasm guns trained on you.

Finally, DeRousse never addresses the issue of why this relates to the need to not pitch Miller more in the postseason for fear of ruining a potential trade, yet, Miller was kept on the postseason roster. Guess this Cardinals Expert(TM) is too naive, or too much a management suck-u, to ever be a skeptic.

And, yet another person, from Yardbarker, who has more sense than DeRousse about trade-making involving Miller.

Baseball at midseason, 2013 version

Other than inexplicably touting Buster Posey over Yadier Molina for National League MVP, Jonah Keri's midseason awards are generally on the money, though I'd give more props to the Tribe as AL surprise, Angels as AL laff, and reject the idea of a Dodgers second-half surge.

More thoughts, from an email message to a friend of mine:

NL:

Wrong on Posey. (And I say that not just as a Cardinals homer, though that's in part it!) I don't overstress the "V" but there is some weight to it. The Gints aren't going anywhere, so that knocks him down a bit. Cards have best record, Molina's having a career year, and for the most part, is doing a great job with the young pitchers.

Agreed that we need to see more Yasiel Puig, even if Shelby Miller weren't otherwise No. 1 in the Rookie of the Year hunt.

Matt Harvey could ultimately win out over Waino, though it will be an uphill challenge, on the NL Cy Young.

I might bump Dodgers ahead of Nats as most disappointing, tho that's tough. And, Zona could go ahead of Pirates, perhaps, as surprise team.

And, I'd put Nats ahead of the Blue as most likely to surge in second half.

===

AL:

Maybe Scherzer on Cy, yes, ahead of King Felix.

Given injuries (plus Bobby V effect) with Boston last year, I'd take the Tribe as most surprising. Might even rank A's ahead.

Would peg Angels as most disappointing, ahead of Jays.

Agreed that Yankees are most likely to slip back.

Here's his NL and his AL awards.

He doesn't mention managers of the year.

Right now, I'll put Clint Hurdle first in NL, then Kirk Gibson, then Mike Matheny. (And, why Baseball-Reference sent me straight to Hurdle's manager's page first, rather than player page, as with the other two, I don't know. And why it won't post blog links to managers' pages, either, is also a mystery.)

AL? Terry Francona first, then John Farrell.

 ===

As for how the second half plays out?

I take the Cards to win the Central. The Pirates will fade enough for the Reds to take the first WC, but Pittsburgh will hold on enough to keep the second.  The Braves will win the East, with the Nats just out of the running. The D-Backs will win the West, and the Dodgers won't have much of a late surge. The Cards are the favorite to go to the World Series.

In the AL? The Tigers win the Central. Boston and Tampa finish as they are now, for a tight 1-2 in the East, and two playoff spots. The Rangers overtake the A's in the West, and both qualify. Cleveland stays above .500, even if missing the playoffs. The Yankees can't even do that. And, the Tigers are the favorite to go to the World Series, giving us an 81- and a 35-year "anniversary" match, if it goes down that way.

Mike Piazza battles #bacne for shot at #Cooperstown and HOF

The header pretty much sums it up.

Mike Piazza, a perennial All-Star catcher, and one who's been underrated defensively (I don't know about Fangraphs, but Baseball-Reference gives him a career positive dWAR) is on the MLB Hall of Fame ballot for the first time.

His opponent? The black cloud of steroids allegations, fueled in his case by reports that he had outbreaks of acne on his back, or "bacne." Given that it was sportswriting curmudgeon Murray Chass who saw fit to play it up, per Deadspin, we really should "bracket" that.

That said, Piazza's counting stats look good, by position, fueled by a catchers record for home runs. On the other hand, that fuels the roiding-suspicious, too.

Other stuff? WAA of 35.9 and WAR of 56.1 are both good for catchers, as is runs by positional scarcity. OPS+ of 143 and OPS of .922, too.

He's a HOFer, for sure, if not for the allegations.

Where do I stand?

Other than the bacne issue, the allegations against Piazza have not flown fast and furious, but more under the carpet.

On the other hand, those are big, record-like sabermetric numbers for a catcher, which again fuels the suspicions.

So, my rhetorical questions test?

Will he get in this year? No.

Will he get in eventually? Yes.

Should he, IMO, get in eventually? I think so.

Should he get in this year, IMO? No. The suspicions are vague, but I can't totally dismiss them. And, when his turn comes, I'll say the same about Pudge Rodriguez.

For both of them, as catchers, the health and longevity issues also raise questions and eyebrows. Let's not forget about HGH as well as steroids.

ESPN Bill James BOTH wrong on Steve Garvey

I don't care if Steve Wulf of ESPN says that Bill James says that Steve Garvey should have been in the MLB Hall of Fame 15 years ago, because they're both wrong.

Yes, the 70s and 80s were low-offense eras, and he played in Dodger Stadium. Still, a 1B with less than 300 HRs and barely 1,300 RBIs? Plus, he didn't deserve a single one of his Gold Gloves. I guess Mr. Sabermetric Guru Bill James missed that he had a negative dWAR every one of his Gold Glove seasons.

He was NOT "an excellent fielder."

Here's the reality. A career Wins Above Average of 7.0. Zero WAR years above 5. That's not even close to a HOFer. I mean, while Keith Hernandez also isn't a HOFer, he's a hell of a lot closer than Garvey.

Hernandez would at least, realistically, make my Hall of the Very Good. Garvey? He wouldn't even get to breathe that room's air.

I grew up in the 70s. In New Mexico. Got KTLA on our cable. Saw Steve Garvey (while hearing Vin Scully). Saw minor leaguers move up from AAA Albuquerque.

And. I. Never. Never thought Garvey was a HOFer. Never.

Anyway, here's the crux of Wulf's stupidity:

But he's also one of the great players from that period who have been hurt by the inflation of statistics fueled by the increasing use of PEDs, which happened to coincide with the HOF eligibility for the earlier era.

Well, maybe that's true for writers who aren't sabermetric-friendly.

But Wulf, and James, both know that WAR and WAA are measured only against a player's peers on the field from year to year. So, to the sabermetrically minded who are also sabermetrically honest, we know that Garvey isn't deserving.

And, per the comments thread, I think James was touting as well as predicting. And, he's been wrong on other touts.

Stuff like this is also why I turn to Yahoo Sports for real sports news and to ESPN, with exceptions here and there, for laughs.

ESPN is better on golf still, I'd say. But, on the major sports? Not even close.

Oh, and despite his guru-like status, this is far from the first "howler" out of Bill James' mouth, too. Indeed, in the same article, Wulf quotes him as touting Dave Parker and Dale Murphy. Both are better candidates than Garvey, but no better than Hernandez, if that.

As for Parker, I think that reflects my stance that James was touting, not predicting. Anybody who looks at Parker vs. Dale Murphy and was a fan back then knows that Parker carries more "personal baggage" than Tim Raines or Jim Rice, as I blogged about.

And, with Murphy, it's clearly an emotional choice.

Anyway, can't some people simply accept the contributions Bill James has made while at the same time not putting him on such a pedestal?

(Beyond this ESPN piece, Dick Allen is another player that James gets TOTALLY wrong on touting — yes, touting, not predicting — him as a HOFer.)

And, click the  "MLB Hall of Fame" tag for more on other candidates on this year's ballot and my thoughts. 

Also, per the commenter below, Bill James gets Jack Morris very wrong. And Bill Mazerowski, too, if James really claimed he was the greatest defensive player of all time.

Leave it to ESPN to fluff Greinke — a No. 2 starter

So, the Ddodgers decided to pay nearly $25M per year, or clear No. 1 starter money, for a guy in Zack Greinke who, except for one year in 2009, has never shown better than No. 2 numbers, if that.

The Baseball-Reference numbers tell us that, out side of 2009, Greinke has never had more than 3.5 WAR. That's No. 2 starter territory, and borderline at that. Yet the fluff machine at ESPN is all over touting how he's worth  every penny. 

Add in that Greinke's career year was three years ago, going on four and, IMO, he's never going to be more than a No. 2 starter. Yes, they're a big-market team in LA, adn doesn 't spending work? Look at the Yanbkees, right? 

Wrong. The Yankees spent and spent and spent from the mid-80s to the mid-90s and went nowhere.

I'll bet Greinke never busts 4 WAR in a year in the first half of the contract and never busts 3 WAR in the second half.

Assuming that's the case, with a payroll already likely to be at $220M next year, and assuming this means Clayton Kershaw gets at least $30M a year if the Dodgers want to keep him, I can see monetary sand being pounded down ratholes right now.

Comparing the two pitchers? Kershaw has, year in and out, had a higher Wins Above Average than Greinke has had Wins Above Replacement. That's a HUGE difference.

I just haven't gotten the sports media's "love" for Greinke in general. ESPN is the worst on this, but I think he's generally been overrated.

It's not just that the Dodgers have an actual No. 1 in Kershaw. Grienke might have been a default No. 1 with the Royals or the Brewers, but he simply is not an "ace."

Update, Dec. 13: The Angels, meanwhile, made a better deal in landing Josh Hamilton.

Crap: It's the Angels for Pujols

Albert Pujols hits his record-tying third home run in Game 3 of the 2010 World Series./From Yahoo Sports

To ESPN, it may have been unexpected. But, I had the Los Angeles Angels of I-5 as a prime suitor a year ago, and didn't waver in that, even after the Vernon Wells trade.

So, not totally unexpected in these quarters, to see Albert Pujols head to the Los Angeles Angels for 10 years and a whopping $260 million.

That said, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that, allowing for Florida having no state income tax, the Marlins' last offer was technically higher. (Why didn't the Rangers use Texas not having an income tax to get in the chase themselves?)

First, even with Kendrys Morales, even with signing Wells, I said Angels owners Arte Moreno still had money to burn. That's why the Angels were listed on my poll at right.

If you want details, the Angels have several contracts that run out soon, including Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu after 2012. (Or the Haloes apparently have a buyout now on Abreu's contract; that said, for $9M, he might be OK still.) Some of their money will go to resigning Dan Haren or Ervin Santana in all likelihood. (I don't expect both to be kept, though.) Wells is around for two more years, but, with a deeper lineup and less pressure, may be come an acceptable 3.5 WAR guy for the rest of that contract. Unless Morales can bounce back and find a new position, he's gone. That frees up money for a midgrade outfielder and a midgrade middle infielder.

As for finding positions for people, we all see that Morales didn't bounce back last year from his 2010 broken leg. So, there's not such a "logjam" for the Angels after all, potentially.

Second, it's a team with a history of winning and a chance to win again, now. Mike Sciosia is a better manager than Ron Washington, and, in the AL West, Jon Daniels will likely regret not making a move. That's doubly true with the Halos taking C.J. Wilson away from him.

Speaking of, per that ESPN story linked up top:

Asked whether life in the American League West had just gotten a little more fun, Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine retorted: "How liberal is your definition of the word 'fun?'

"We just saw him for seven games [in the World Series]," Levine went on. "I think it's safe to say we haven't exactly figured him out yet."

Third, with the Dodgers still in limbo, now was the time for Moreno to strike. I can easily see the Angels drawing 3.5 million next year or more, or near max of 3.65 million in their park.

Add in: Higher TV $$ on next local contract (the Angels were already negotiating a new deal with Fox); Pujols' Angels uniform and other marketing sales; possible hike in ticket prices, etc. Trust me, Moreno will get at least $3-4M a year of this contract back.

Fourth, as far as Pujols' performance, the Angels' ballpark is at least as hitter-friendly as Busch. Per ESPN, new Busch was a smidgen better the last two years, but before that, Angels Stadium was a lot better, probably due to a better lineup. Give him an injury free year, the AL, hitting in parks like Arlington, Boston and New York, and an occasional "rest" day at DH, and I expect his stats to go up. Could be good news for him in career counting stats.

Fifth, let's look at the Cardinals more. As I called it more than a year ago, the "insurance plan" comes into play for the Cards as Lance Berkman shifts to first base. (And, some other Cards bloggers laughed at me a year ago when I said that.)

Sixth, my comment that, based on ticket sales vs. possible dropoff, the Cards had money to do a deal even in this range? Especially if either Adam Wainwright isn't back 100 percent or Chris Carpenter has an "on for injuries" year, adding in the seriousness of Allan Craig's injury, and the Cards lose 200K fans this year.

Seventh, as a Cards fan, it's sad. I don't know, other than straight dollars, what Pujols felt he wasn't getting from the Cardinals, since the offer a year ago reportedly included a small piece of the franchise. Maybe La Russa's retirement was a factor. Maybe he wanted a split marketing deal on milestone memorabilia. Maybe he felt he wasn't being stroked enough. Maybe he felt agent Dan Lozano wasn't being stroked enough. After the Matt Holliday contract, I think all of this is true.

ESPN weighs in, indirectly, on that. It's clear the Cards weren't budging much higher. If Mo/Bill DeWitt refused to modify Pujols' old contract after the Holliday signing, they've reaped the whirlwind.

The Cardinals had planned to talk with Pujols' agent one more time Thursday before heading home. But sources told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney that the Cardinals' latest offer was for nine years and a little less than $200 million. That would have made him the fourth-highest paid first baseman. With the Angels deal, he is tops.

One source who spoke with Pujols' camp Wednesday came away with the impression the two sides were farther apart than had been widely portrayed earlier in the day.

Penny wise and pound foolish in St. Louis, perhaps.

Eighth, on the assumption that Prince Fielder is gone from Milwaukee, and NOT to the Cubs, Cincinnati is the default NL Central favorite for 2012 in my book. And, there's a one-in-three chance the Cardinals don't get the wild card, even. (The second WC doesn't happen until 2013.) Add in the fact that Berkman's just signed for one more year, and has indicated he could decide to retire after that, and the Cardinals, while pitching-rich in the minors, may find themselves scuffing and struggling for some time.

Now, some reflections along with analysis, and a look at the St. Louis reaction, below the fold:

Will 'Sign Pujols' movement work?

As Yahoo's Jeff Passan reports, a small group of St. Louis Cardinal fans has come up with a creative way to try to keep Albert Pujols in St. Louis.

These fans have created a website where Cards fans can buy a high-quality, facsimile-autographed, pencil-sketch picture of Prince Albert and the downtown skyline. Proceeds benefit the Pujols Family Foundation, which, as Passan notes, helps the impoverished in Pujols' native Dominican Republic and families of children with Down Syndrome.

The idea is that, by demonstrating fan loyalty to Pujols, it will persuade him to show his loyalty back by signing a new contract.

Well, unless Bill DeWitt and John Mozeliak's lowball offer of last offseason was only a "placeholder," it's going to take more than the charity efforts of Ron Heinz and other fans to keep The Machine in St. Louis.

The Cubs, for revenge and savior factor options, still stand as the No. 1 alternative home for Pujols in my mind. The Angels are No. 2, still. Now that Brandon Belt has been sent back down to the minors, the Giants may be in play again. For that matter, the Dodgers may be, if the McCourt(s) vs. MLB fight gets settled soon enough. The BoSox are out, with Adrian Gonzales getting locked up.

I still say the Braves are a good outside possibility. Low payroll now, and Chipper Jones won't play, probably, more than one year past this one, freeing up more money and creating more need. His contract runs out after next year, though there is a low-budget vesting option for 2013.

Pujols — D-Day plus 2

According to Yahoo's Jeff Passan, Albert Pujols did just what he needed to do in Jupiter, Fla. Thursday: Go on the PR offensive.

Passan seems to give him a good grade:

It’s not a side Pujols reveals often. He is notoriously focused and routine-oriented. Media means nothing to him. As free agency beckons, though, Pujols needs a conduit to deliver his message, especially since he will balance reaching for high dollars with staying in the good graces of St. Louis fans who naturally side with the team.

Meanwhile, Prince Albert seemed at his best at deflecting guesses on specific numbers tossed around before the deadline:

“That’s so funny,” Pujols said. “Me and my agent talk every other day about you guys throwing numbers out, assuming the Cardinals offered me this, Albert asking for 10 years. We just laugh about it, and I’m pretty sure the Cardinals are, too. You guys don’t have any clue. You’re way off about the numbers you’re throwing out there.”

That said, ESPN has a source confirm that the average salary, more than total years, was allegedly a big deal.

Pujols also spoke, indirectly, to Tony La Russa's claims he was a "tool" of the players union:

Pujols said neither he nor Lozano had been pressured by anyone, and said only five people knew the details of the talks: Him, his wife, Lozano, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak, and Cardinals chairman William DeWitt Jr.

More light on why the tight lips? Pujols specifically cited how recent talks between the New York Yankees and Derek Jeter spilled into public, with acrimony at times.

Yahoo offers its latest take on where he might go, if he leaves, too. As it mentions, I haven't counted the Dodgers in the mix before, because of ownership issues. But with Commissioner Bud "Bud" Selig pushing the McCourts to settle up on their divorce, maybe even jointly selling the team, who knows, nine months from now?

Bud needs to invoke 'good of baseball' clause in LA

As the McCourts' divorce trial reveals new levels of greed, financial chicanery and more, one of baseball's most storied, and most important, franchises is at risk of moral bankruptcy, if not financial insolvency.

Bowie Kuhn barred George Steinbrenner from day-to-day operation of the Yankees in the wake of the Dave Winfield dirt-digging fiasco.

So, if current commissioner Bud Selig wants to push it, I believe he could force the McCourts to sell the Dodgers.

He should.

Now, if Peter O'Malley could just line up a consortium of buyers.

Dodgers not ‘winners’ with Manny trade – and neither is Manny

Maybe they needed Ramirez to make box office splash after the Angels acquired Mark Teixeira, but contrary to Steve Henson, that doesn’t make the Dodgers “trade winners.”

Rather, I agree with Tim Brown on the reasons this trade is overrated.

Dodger Stadium is a clear pitchers park in general, and in spades compared to Fenway. Along with that, his defensive limitations will be more exposed in the larger Dodger Stadium.

Manny’s never played in the NL before.

It will be easier to pitch around him in the Dodger lineup than it was in the Bosox order.

There’s no DH position to give him a rest from OF duties. (After two years of slim duty at DH, Manny has played one-third his games there this year.)

In spite of all that, Manny’s agent, the brilliant NOT Scott Boras, got the Dodgers to waive his two option years, which were for more than $20 mil each.

Manny will not have a good second half of the year, will start looking old, and, even given the stupidity of baseball owners, will be hard pressed to get more than $20 mil on the free agent market next year.

The Bosox?

Well, Jason Bay is a better defensive outfielder. He’s generally healthier than Manny.

And, in the Boston lineup, he WILL get better pitch views than he did in Pittsburgh.

Plus, he adds a touch of speed, not blazing, but mid-level speed, to the Boston lineup.