DSAcrats and the Bradley Effect and the Klippenstein Kronicle

It's clear that the the DSA Roseys are self-inflating expectations (while running away from past social media statements). Barring some new piece by Ken Klippenstein, per his most recent one, it seems many fellow travelers, per an old Deep Purple song, think it's not about the kill, but the thrill of the chase.

That seemed true enough after Abdul El-Sayed's much narrower than self-projected win of the Democrat nomination for U.S. Senate in Michigan. It seems more true than ever after Francesca Hong's loss for the Democrat gubernatorial nod in Wisconsin.

And, yes, BlueAnon, leaving off the "-ic" is deliberate, from the left, not the Rethuglican world.

So, why?

Part of it, per CNN, is crappy polling. Mainstream media — and not just print media, but national cable teevee people like, er, CNN — are spending less and less on polls. That means partisan polling rises to the front. Add in the corruption of prediction markets like Kalshi, and partisan polling then feeding back off that to try to create a narrative that may often be almost as fallacious as The Donald claiming he's winning in Iran, and there you go. 

As for Ken claiming "The Rebels Already Won," er, no they didn't, and this comes off in hindsight as flat-out performative spin. Especially with your ongoing refusal by silence to admit even a partial political mea culpa on Graham Platner, you come off looking less and less like a political analyst on Democratic party elections and more and more like the Substack version of a talking head. 

If that's what you want to be, fine. Be honest about it, because if you aren't, I'll keep hanging that label on you. As I read you more and more, I see less and less in the way of actual political analysis in actual electoral races. (For example, Ken in that piece, and notes after the election so far, has said nothing about Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez both refusing to endorse Hong, and why he thinks they didn't.) 

Beyond that, as I noted off this Time piece, per the parentheses in the first paragraph, Hong was looking like a Pander Bear even before Wisconsin primary day. That said, my concerns about that Time piece includes Hong not being quoted, whether the author chose not to reach out, or she chose not to respond, while Crowley was. (I'm assuming lack of reach-out; the author never mentions the old journalistic "We contacted Francesca Hong but she chose not to respond.")

So, Wisconsin didn't even have a rebel running, not in all aspects. 

Speaking of all of the above? Here's a Substack restacking note I had to Ken's Aug. 14 piece about The Third Way ready to label certain Democrats, whether restricted to the DSA or not, as "extremist":

If only Ken recognized that third parties exist, and as part of his talking-head-ism, encouraged more readers to think about that. 

Also, wouldn’t this have been a good chance to ask AOC and Bernie, since he’s using their picture, why they didn’t endorse Hong, and what they think about this new Third Way policy statement, if they know about it?

As is, I think Ken wants the sweet spot of putting talking-headism on top of investigative reporting leaks, but without always getting into actual analysis behind those leaks. 

The Bradley effect? The degree of its effect, and even its existence, have been debated since it was first posulated. And, to the degree it exists, if at all, is it primarily or only about race? This:

While there is widespread belief in a racial component as at least a partial explanation for the polling inaccuracies in the elections in question, it is not universally accepted that this is the primary factor. Peter Brodnitz, a pollster and contributor to the newsletter The Polling Report, worked on the 2006 campaign of black U.S. Senate candidate Harold Ford, Jr., and contrary to Edelman's findings in 1988, Brodnitz indicated that he did not find the race of the interviewer to be a factor in voter responses in pre-election polls. Brodnitz suggested that late-deciding voters tend to have moderate-to-conservative political opinions and that this may account in part for last-minute decision-makers breaking largely away from black candidates, who have generally been more liberal than their white opponents in the elections in question

Offers definite food for thought, as it can apply within primary races as well as general elections. Plus, with much wider use of early voting today, election-day voting, especially outside of senior citizens, still continues to break Republican.

So, if Abdul El-Sayed does lose in Michigan, you heard it here first. (The state has a minimum of nine days of early voting.)

On Hong? Per Ken's interview of her, she won a seven-way primary (presumably for a safe Democrat seat — Wiki confirms with noting it's the east side of the People's Republic of Madison) for the Wisconsin Assembly in 2020, with 28 percent. As for her "consistently leading polls"? Well, per the above, WHOSE polls, first? Ken doesn't say. Second, even if by quality independent pollsters, sure, when other candidates keep dropping out, you might float to the top.

Also per that Wiki page on Hong? Ken doesn't tell you she was a carpetbagger into that district in 2020, first. Second, it discusses those polls, saying her rise only really took off in July — after the Dem straw poll endorsed Sara Rodriguez, then other candidates dropped out, then she dropped out. There was nothing inevitable about her before that.

Third, the bottom portion of her Wiki page confirms what I say above and already said on Shitter: She was turning into a Pander Bear. (Ken didn't tell you that, either, in his interview story. It's true that this only started happening after the date of his interview, but Ken didn't append a note to that piece, do a follow-up or anything else.)

I'll thank Don Huffines to stop further politicizing the Texas Comptroller's office

Glenn Hegar, the last regular elected comptroller, was bad enough. Strangeabbott-shenaniganed interim comptroller Kelly Hancock was worse.

And now, here's Huffines with the normally halfway anodyne news release about monthly sales tax allocations:

Texas Comptroller Don Huffines said many cities and counties can reduce property taxes due to increased sales tax revenue as local governments will receive $1.4 billion in sales tax allocations for August, 13.6% more than in August 2025. 

These allocations are based on sales made in June by businesses that report tax monthly and on sales made in April, May and June by quarterly filers. “The increased sales tax revenue distributed to local governments is a strong sign the Texas economy continues to grow,” Huffines said. 

“It is also a clear signal that many local governments with increased sales tax revenue can dedicate much of that to property tax reduction. Lowering property taxes is one of the best ways to make housing more affordable and help Texans with the cost of gas, groceries and other living expenses.”

First, as I noted, school districts don't have sales taxes.

Second, property taxes are high because .... capitalism, which Tex-ass Rethuglicans don't like when it gores their ox.

Third, they're high because no income tax.

Fourth, Dannie Goeb, with repeated jackings of the homestead exemption, rather than putting a reasonable increase on that, then a COLA, has played politics with property taxes for years. 

Fifth, the cost of living is up right now because of Warmonger Don's Zionism-driven illegal war against Iran. 

I can haz AOC's babies? Especially if they're presidential ones?

You know, like the old "I can haz cheezburger?"

AOC publicly announced she's freezing her eggs so the world has a long-term future possibility of little AOC-lets popping up. 

The piece has all the other funness you'd expect.

First, there's her distancing herself from the radical Democratic Socialists of America while still trying to triangulate off them for support of a lot of people who do back them. That said, per my riff on Klip, she was already creating her own Overton Window on Israel on official foreign policy a full year ago. And, even before that, she was one of the leading Pergressuve Cucks in the push to throw Ilhan Omar under the bus over "the Benjamins." THAT, in turn, was way back in 2019; a full year before that, she showed herself a squish on BDS.

Second, there's the attempt to thrust herself into the headlines by saying she's "open" to running for US Senate or President. She is old enough to be already eligible for the former, and for the latter as of 2028.

On the Senate? Chuck Schumer's seat comes up in 2028. To successfully primary him, she'd definitely have to fully claim an anti-Zionist line she's been reluctant to grasp. Frankly, I don't think she can pull it off. She'd also probably have to be honest, and not merely performative as in the past, on any "tax the rich" angle vs Chuck being in bed with Wall Street. He'd still be under 80 and would surely run for re-election. Kirsten Gillibrand comes up again in 2030.

Indeed, AOC the presumable pretendian JAP might shift yet more right vs Schnorrer Schumer. 

President? With her tacking right while Kamala is a Zionist Cop pretends to tack left on Israel, two women of color will have overlapping lanes. 

If you really want to understand the world of oil and gas

Read this piece, "Nobody is Denied Energy," then this piece, "A Barrel of Crude is Not Just a Fuel," to understand how both hydrocarbons play out in the global economy, and what's likely ahead for the short-term future.

In terms of "shocks" on both fuelstocks, and the Cold War 2.0 that both US duopoly parties produce, and aim even more at China than Russia? In the short term, China is pretty insulated on both. In the longer term, it is increasing its insulation on oil with EV buildout. Its exposure on gas is primarily on gas as feedstock for foodstuffs, whether fertilizer, pesticide or herbicide. But, it's ongoing pivot to Brazil as food exporter versus the US gives it some degree of insulation from US-based gas shocks.

Here is my Substack comment on the first piece:

Well put all around, especially on the coda of China and EV build-out. Yeah, five years from now, the oil window will look differently there. And, per what I said elsewhere on gas issues and food, China is free to continue to import more foodstuffs from places like Brazil and less from the US.

And on the second:

Great stuff all around. And, on 1941, Roosevelt underlings, while he was hobnobbing with Churchill, were the ones who actually tightened the screws on Japan on aviation fuel, and by the time he found out, a couple of months of screw-tightening were deemed too much to reverse. 

On fracking, you know like I do that much of it the 2010s was financially underwater, ergo, contra American exceptionalists, oil division, did not disprove Hubbert's Peak. And, per the general theory behind Hubbert, the fracking portion of America's oil and gas both will get tighter in the future. How much tighter and how quickly, I don't know? 

Per your one linked piece, on "Fortress America" pivoting to Latin America? Still won't affect China in Cold War 2.0, right, and also, under the current American regime, will be the old Dual Monarchy's "hotbed of nationalities." This sets aside continuing Chinese efforts at increasing inroads in Latin America. Then there's the issue of how much more sharply Japan and South Korea eventually look at the American alliance, kind of like the smaller Gulf states today, and what they can actually do, or try to do, to slip it. (Shorter answer is: It all depends on how much more rapproachment they want with China, right?) Pakistan? Already a failing state (that's a continuum, not a single point) a few steps down the road in the wrong direction toward failed state.

Go read both, along with pieces linked off them. 

Texas Progressives talk this and that

As I did last week, I have split this week's Texas Progressives roundup into two parts.

SocraticGadfly, with last Thursday being Aug. 6, did a roundup of old thoughts, with some new additions, on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Houston-area parents' bid to get an immediate hold placed on the Texas Senate's 10 Commandments bill failed, but a hearing on an injunction is set for Aug. 17.  

The Porvenir massacre site is under threat from a Big Bend-area portion of Trump's border wall. (I was last in Presidio County before the marker erection, but via Doug Swanson and others, am familiar already with the story.) 

The Observer says Mike Miles appears to be resorting to cheats to inflate campus accountability ratings in Houston ISD. 

Neil at the Houston Democracy Project visited the site of the ICE murder of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo.

Steve Vladeck strongly questions the notion that this SCOTUS is somehow "independent" from Donald Trump.

Mustafa Tameez observes that AI has developed intelligence faster than it has earned legitimacy.

The Houston Press urges the passage of a real immigration reform law to reduce the chances of more ICE killings.

Texas Public Opinion Research reports on what the people want with a variety of policy ideas.

Texas Progressives talk Paxton and Talarico and call out both halves of the duopoly

As with last week, I've split the weekly roundup into two parts.

Off the Kuff is following the polls in the Senate and other races. 

Related? Outgoing Ag Commish Sid Miller says Republicans will lose statewide races because of Strangeabbott's support for data centers and backlash to that. He thinks Abbott is trying to game the banana republic Texas Lege system to pass out favors within data centers, to boot.

Christofascist Tim Dunn is back in the arena to at least indirectly and in a small way support Ken Paxton financially per what Texas Monthly reports. Farris Wilks remains AWOL.

Kenny Boy failed again in his attempt to force gunz into the State Fair of Texas.

James Talarico, like Paxton, has a voting registration issue. (It makes me wonder if the top tier of non-duopoly candidates nationally has a similar problem anywhere. Dr. Jill Stein, have you always lived where you've claimed?) It makes me not wonder if Kuff will wrote about it, at least with a non-spinning take, because, unless snowballs freeze in hell, I know the answer is no. And, as of the afternoon of Aug. 9, the answer was indeed no. Shock me. The Trib story went up Aug. 5, plenty of time for him to write.