48 hours until another round of Trump blather?

Per the Dissident Monday, following up on his Sunday piece, Trump's "48 hours or else" was his second in two weeks to Iran.

And, the "or else" didn't happen the first time. So that's why Iran didn't budge the second time.

Krugman claimed Saturday that Trump wouldn't TACO. Yeah, Paul, but he already did. Even if Hegseth was behind his "Glory be to god," Trump could still TACO.

And, as of last night, per what I could find shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern, Trump did semi-TACO at least.  

Iran? Yes, the Strait of Hormuz gets opened — but only if you pay a toll, whether to Iran or Oman. (How much Iran will crowd Oman, and related factors, remains to be seen.) 

Klipp said, a couple of hours before the deadline, that Trump was afraid. Whether that or other things, I don't know.  

The bigger picture?

China is laughing all the way to the bank, or all the way to the electric recharging station, as Trump gets ever more stupid and mendacious over Iran. Of course, like the US looking at Europe after World War II, China may not want the US economy to go TOO much into the crapper. 

It's getting so bad that even Bari Weiss' minions are worried. 

They should be. Iran shot down that F-15 US plane with a shoulder-fired missile. WHAT? Like we gave the Afghan mujahideen 40 years ago? Damn we're idiots. 

Meanwhile, the current government of Pakistan comes off looking ever more like a US flunky. 

==

Update, April 8: Iran claims that Israel's newest strikes on Lebanon are a violation, per this AP story.  Therefore, it has closed Hormuz again. It has also said that any reopening will be under the management of its military. That said, Trump and "Glory be to Satan" Pete Hegseth claim Lebanon is not part of any cease-fire. Meanwhile, Trump and Karoline Unchristian Leavitt (she refuses to adopt her husband's surname like a good submissive married Christian woman) appear to disagree on what to think about Iran's earlier 10-point proposal.

THAT then said, Iran's Supreme National Security Council is dreaming if it thinks the US has agreed to compensate it for war damages.

So, per Mearsheimer, myself and many others, yes, Trump has his ass in a crack. But, not necessarily as deep a crack as Iran thinks. 

Second, via The Dissident, negative views of Israel in the US have increased since the start of the war, per Pew Research. A big takeaway? Probably in part from the "manosphere," 57 percent of Republicans 18-49 now have negative views of Israel. 

Also via The Dissident, Daniel Levy said on Democracy Now that Trump must be made of less serious stuff than previous presidents, being dragged into this war by Netanyahu. Per Hegseth probably being behind the "glory be to god" of Trump's one Lies Social blast, how much did Bibi triangulate off him? 

Top blogging of March 2026

These were the 10-most-read pieces from last month. As is usual, not all of these were written last month. Those that are older and "evergreen" will be noted as such.

No. 10: "Abortion: A Gordian knot for many liberals" from 2014 dived in depth into how much this is not a black and white issue.

No. 9: My piece about how Edith Hamilton mistranslated one word in Aeschylus famous saying, and then, how Robert F. Kennedy misquoted her deliberately incorrect translation, talked about how this bowdlerized a thought already bad on the issue of theodicy within classical polytheism and made it even worse within Christian monotheism, and how it also is another reason to question to legacies of both Hamilton and Kennedy. 

No. 8 was from way back in 2013, and was a shredding review of Chris Stedman's "Faitheist." The book is no better, and, AFAIK, Stedman is no more intellectually honest, 13 years later.  I did do teh Google, and see that he is now on Substack, natch. As for what he's writing about? Minnesota nice librul humanism of a sort. He does write about ICE, unavoidable in Minneapolis. He does not have a single word about Gaza and Palestine. Fuck off, even more than before.

No. 7? "Global warming may be speeding up" says it all. 

No. 6? A golden oldie from 2006. Again, the title says it all: "Timothy Treadwell WAS really fricking nuts." 

No. 5 was about the largely self-inflicted water crisis in Corpus Christi. 

No. 4, from early March, was my take on the Iran War at one week. Update now that we're at one month, not one week? Trump's gotten stupider and more Norman Vincent Peale stubborn, and may be getting puppeted a bit by Hegseth. Congressional Democraps may or may not find more cojones after Easter. Ditto to even a smaller degree with Rethuglicans. 

No. 3, one week later, was related. It was about red heifers without spot or blemish, including how Israel is slow-walking and suckering Texas ranchers trying to raise them, and it was also about some things the Texas Monthly "shockingly" got wrong on its biblical interpretation. 

No. 2, from 2014? Brian Dunning was intellectually dishonest and also legally guilty just a year after Chris Stedman was an intellectually dishonest glory hound and nothing has changed since then.

No. 1 was a March roundup of environmental news, starting with undercounting of methane leaks. We're looking more and more screwed all the time on climate change. 

Big Bend gets a physical wall reprieve, for now

Building the big boondoggling wall through Big Bend — opposed by local-level, actually knowledgeable Republican elected officials, contra state-level MAGAts sucking up to outgoing Ag Commish Sid Vicious Miller — seems to be on hold for now. 

Sam Karas, a Rio Grande river guide and sometime reporter for the Big Bend Sentinel, tells the Monthly how breaking the story about the wall originally broke him. 

The story notes, which I didn't think of, that arguably a border fence ANYWHERE along the river is illegal under international law:

In 1848, when the United States and Mexico set the slippery boundary between the two countries somewhere in the Rio Grande, the framers of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo wrote that the Rio Grande “shall be free and common to the vessels and citizens of both countries; and neither shall, without the consent of the other, construct any work that may impede or interrupt, in whole or in part, the exercise of this right.” We vessels and citizens had certainly been impeded and interrupted.

Well, there you go. Surprised that argument hasn't been raised more. 

The story talks about other wall stupidities in the area, like trying to fence off every ephemeral wash, creek and arroyo that runs into the river. 

Karas adds more about how she got wind of the story at The Border Chronicle. 

The Observer, with the Chronicle, ties wall building to political resistance. 

The Texas Signal discusses the "smart" border walls in general. 

Science news — more problems with DNA chimeras

Just a fascinating story here. Imagine that a woman has chimeric egg cells and because of that, she's accused of faking a pregnancy to defraud a state welfare system. I have written before about chimeras, but had never before thought about chimeric egg cells. Per the story, the phenomenon, germ-line chimerism, is little known, and can hit sperm cells as well.

Here's one such story: 

One such case involved an American man who learned through a paternity test that he could not be the father of his child, who was conceived via assisted reproduction. He was preparing to sue the clinic, believing himself to be the victim of a semen mix-up, when a more precise test revealed that he in fact shared 25% of his DNA with the child. In other words, he was the child's uncle, genetically speaking. Further research showed that 10% of his sperm contained DNA from a vanished twin brother.

There's a religious side note, too. This gives a further swift kick to Catholic doctrine of ensoulment. 

Per the link, there's a new book out about this, and this piece excerpts from that book.

Beyond people allegedly trying to rip off the government, false DNA reports obviously affect criminal justice. Note that chimeras can result from an absorbed embryo of a "fraternal" twin as well as an identical one. So, DNA from a chimera might match a brother or sister more than the person who should be and might be the top suspect.

Here's that, from the book:

The oft-taught equation of "one individual, one genome" fails to capture the full complexity of reality. What seemed a long-established and unshakable certainty, even to me, has turned out to be imperfect knowledge in need of revision. We know too little about our own biology to have blind faith that DNA profiling will always reveal a person's identity or origins. 

Our ultimate proof is far from foolproof. Yet it is very often used to determine relationships, prove or disprove paternity, evaluate applications for family reunification, or convict persons otherwise presumed innocent.

Per the story, as with the woman at top? You might face fraud charges, as well as a criminal defense problem. You might face medical health problems that can't readily be identified, such as people discovered to be chimeras when needing a transplant. Then there's blood typing and other issues. 

On the science, we know that fetuses can make their mothers into chimeras.  

The author, Lisa Barnéoud, notes it's little known how many cases of chimerism exist in general. At least a dozen of specific germ-line cases are known. As I noted years ago about a Carl Zimmer piece, human chimeras, or chimeras plus the somewhat similar phenomenon of "mosaics," probably make up a lot bigger percentage of the population than most people think.

On the metaphysical and religious issues, as I have said before, this just gives a swift kick in the nads to "intelligent designer" claims. 

These two issues are also a challenge to the classical "dual-omni" god and starkly raise the problem of evil, as well as challenging Catholic (and other) ensoulment at birth ideas. 

Texas Progressives

The Texas Progressive Alliance knows all it needs to know about Mormon wives as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff has one more look at statewide primary voting data. 

SocraticGadfly discussed how global warming may be speeding up.

Neil at Houston Democracy Project said the unelected Houston City Attorney gutted major provision of proposed ordinance to regulate city cooperation with ICE. Still, we should advocate for ordinances in good part to organize ourselves locally for challenging days ahead.

Dustin Burrows is a constitutionally illiterate Pander Bear of a different sort than Dannie Goeb; his pet projects for next year's banana republic Lege include trying to get "Little Texas" counties of New Mexico to secede. Anybody with brains knows the NM Lege and Congress would both have to approve.

Levi Asher wants to see more fight against the algorithms that have alienated some young men from Democrats.

The Barbed Wire says that some "self-deportations" are actually homecomings.

The Bloggess reacts to one of her books being banned by New Braunfels ISD. In addition, The Current wants to know what New Braunfels ISD has against Matthew McConaughey.

In the Pink Texas did not attend JD Vance's Austin fundraiser.

The TPA is sad to hear about the closure of The Leader News, a 70-year-old neighborhood newspaper in Houston. We wish them all well with whatever comes next.

Colorado River Compact states continue to fiddle while the climate burns

The seven states of the Compact (or what's left of it) still refuse to come to a deal, as the clock keeps ticking until the expiration date in September.

And, per the newest reporting on the status of negotiations by Inside Climate News, California and Nevada, at minimum, are pledging to sue. The AP also weighs in, with many of the same talking points about possible lawsuits as the century-old Compact expires in September, the increased likelihood of wildfires, and watering restrictions in places like Denver. But, with the AP speaking, that officially makes it Serious News.

I, like ICN, noted the problems with the deadlock on compact negotiations a month-plus ago.

And, having just gotten back from the greater Lower Colorado area, have experienced the lower-elevation big heat-up already. That, per ICN's story and my knowledge, is not as bad as the heat-up in the Upper Basin combined with the drought. But, it's problematic enough. It means Powell, Mead and reservoirs further downstream on the main stem of the river have started summer evaporation already in early spring. And, though water takes longer to heat up than land, the heating up is happening, and means that when normal summer heat comes, these damned lakes behind their damned dams will be what? Probably 3-5°, or 2-3°C, hotter than normal,  meaning they'll evaporate even more quickly.

As for the Upper Basin? 

Per the Snowpack site, we're at the worst snow levels in a decade. Now, everybody in the Rockies and Uintas know that late snows can happen. Barring an incredible thermometer flip, though, even if the area DOES get any later spring (or early spring for the mountains) precip, it's going to be rain not snow. 

The picture has the details of the 10-year average, but the chart is interactive and will tell you this year is at 60-percent of the 30-year average, another sign this is a long-term drought.

Otherwise, NOAA's 30- and 90-day forecasts offer no hope, albeit slim longer-term precipitation help possibility for a small area from Tucson to El Paso. But that's in the second half of summer, too late for much help, and too far out to be that weighty.

UPDATE: Capital and Main also weighs in. Its focus is on the future of farming in the Imperial Valley.

So, what happens?

In Aridzona, they blame California and alfalfa for Saudi horses grown in-state.

In California, they threaten suits if their first appropriation is threatened. And, Central Valley farmers will continue to attack Gavin Newsom while continuing to give Trump a pass.

Neither follows Nevada's lead in being more aggressive on requiring things like low-flush toilets in new development, renovated commercial development, etc.

Nevada, having done a one-off on conservation, and with the smallest Lower Basin rights, may threaten to sue, but has little angle.

The Upper Basin?

Some governor or legiscritter or Congresscritter will go Vladimir Putin and say that they accept climate change is good and it means more crops can grow up there and so they need to hold on to their water. This is most likely in high-up Wyoming, followed by Utah then the Western Slope in Colorado.

Otherwise?

Utah has somebody to speed up getting water to St. George via the laughable Lake Powell Pipeline — including the laughable claim, as of a year or two ago, that high end on cost would be $2.2 billion. Five times that high is more likely for the LOW end. That said, per ICN 18 months ago, officially, for now, the pipeline is dead.

Colorado has High Plains farmers bickering with Western Slope farmers over cross-Rockies water transfers.

Wyoming, with no people, welcomes warming and pushes a libertarian attitude toward Upper Basin water.

New Mexico, finalizing its Rio Grande water suit settlement with Texas, looks for more cross-basin diversion of its own, slim as what it can do.