Quick and dirty thoughts from Texas and beyond about the 2026 midterms

OK, we’ll start in Texas.

Although not all Republicans have conceded yet, it looks like Democrats have swept every statewide office.

To add to this, as of the time of writing, in an even bigger shocker to me, Democrats were within five seats of claiming a majority in the Texas House.

Republicans will still control the Texas Senate, but that will now be run by a Democrat, Vikki Goodwin, and not Dannie Goeb, aka Dan Patrick.

Speaking of, to extend a quote from “somebody” during the COVID years?

“Old Republican politicians have a duty to die.”

With that, this is an edited version of selected small bits from what will be my editorial column in my newspapers next week along with additional commentary.. Per part of what I said about Suzanne Bellsnyder yesterday, it, for reasons of journalistic ethics, will not be a straight-up run of that column. That column is essentially an open letter to both duopoly parties in Texas and nationally.

First, Dems winning the state House may be one of those “could be good, good be bad” things of that old pseudo-Chinese proverb.

The good is that she can now put forth a full agenda, rather than rounding up coalitions of the moment on individual issues and otherwise playing defense.

The bad is that if House Dems have a majority, they’re going to want stuff and it will be like herding cats. Senior House Dem Senfronia Thompson has already thrown her hat in the Speakership ring. Given previous speaker races, some young buck or doe may challenge her within the Dem caucus but will likely get nuked in a floor vote, as most Democrats will accept having a pair of stable hands at the tiller.

The good is that, on matters that are not of actual social principle, (whether real social principle or fake/but are overstated by Texas Rethuglicans anyway) Hinojosa will be able to put the screws to Senate Republicans.

For fellow Texas denizens, “data centers” to me is shorthand for “local control,” and ultimately the 2023 “Death Star” bill. Half the Senate is up for election in two years; Republicans in that half, per the likes of Bellsnyder, can either listen to their actual consultants or pricey self-proclaimed anti-RINO consultants. Your choice.

The bad? Hinojosa is the most ConservaDem of the statewide Dems. Per her one campaign ad, she’s not going to attempt to even modestly modify the state’s draconian laws on reproductive choice. She likely won’t back anything close to Lite Guv-elect Vikki Goodwin’s push to legalize marijuana. Structural changes be Strangeabbott, like the 15th Appeals Court, may stay in place, too.

Downballot? Per the Trib link on statewide races, the biggie is Nathan Johnson winning the state AG race to replace Kenny Boy Paxton. No more suing the feds to back Trump’s agenda, especially via court-shopping. This was one race I actually voted in and for the D. Nothing objectionable about Johnson re what he wants to actually do.

Will either he or Comptroller-elect Sarah Eckhardt undo the state’s official anti-BDS and anti-ESG stances? Will Hinojosa take any lead on this? Sadly, probably not. What happens if, say, a pro-Palestine group has a lawsuit against the state? How vigorously will Johnson defend the state? Still unknown.

Next?

Will Rethugs in Texas and beyond finally realize that, while words like sticks and stones can hurt, at the same time, vapid repetition of some words eventually make them empty?

Probably not.

“Socialist” had diminishing returns, so “communist” was unveiled. But, despite Elmo Musk’s direct mail fliers, no, Karl Marx was not hiding behind every tree and under every bush.

And, as Bo French showed, straight-out Islamophobia had him running no better than any other Rethuglican. It also didn’t help Haley Stevens block Abdul El-Sayed’s Senate run in Michigan. For whatever reasons, some conservative Muslims here in Texas still want to vote Rethuglican even as you slapped them in the face.

Republican Party of Texas chairwoman D’rinda Randall said last night:

[T]onight, we accept the results. Tomorrow, we begin rebuilding.

Will you learn WHY those results happened, and accept that, in the first step of rebuilding? Not just on bigotry, but on the local control issue and more? Color me skeptical until I see it happen.

Now, one other word.

An hour after Strangeabbott conceded, Trump called him a RINO. Let’s tackle that first.

Those consultants I mentioned above, versus constituents, will see dollar signs still looming if they double down on RINO in 2028 primaries. Overton Window shifting is a thing within political parties, too, and these people will push it one last time.

Beyond that?

I mentioned the magic name: Donald John Trump.

He may be feared inside Republican elected and infrastructure circles, but I certainly don’t picture him as liked the way Ronald Reagan was, or even George W. Bush. He’s already older now than Reagan was when he left the presidency.

Once the fear subsides, to riff on an old saying Lyndon B. Johnson reportedly had as president about his vice president, Hubert Humphrey:

I want his pecker to be in my pocket.

Or the longer version about staff assistants:

I don't want loyalty. I want loyalty. I want him to kiss my ass in Macy's window at high noon and tell me it smells like roses. I want his pecker in my pocket.

Republicans can either decide to reclaim their body parts — or not. This seems less true nationally, but even there, not totally untrue, versus Texas.

As for national Democrats?

To riff on Dan Boguslaw, new Church Committees, but broader focused ones, on things like ICE/DHS, will be nice.

But, on what caused Trump to lose?

It’s called the War Powers Resolution. But?

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and presumable new Speaker of the House Hakeem Jeffries are both Zionist. They may well do their best to neuter such resolutions, let alone kill attempts to block Trump shifing Merikkka’s $4 billion in aid to the Zionist genocidalists running Tel Aviv into indirect dark money channels.

As I said to fellow leftists on Shitter last night? Beyond those two, there’s a lot of ConservaDems who will need their feet held to the fire, including holding their feet to the non-duopoly fire.

I thought Suzanne Bellsnyder had more integrity

Than to be bought and paid by Gina Hinojosa. Or, even more, to not disclose it.

Sadly, Monty Bennett's Dallas Express broke the story on Bellsnyder, who is the publisher of the Sherman County Reporter, a former Republican Lege staffer and runner of a profitable Substack, ran an op-ed in the Dallas Morning News supporting Ginojosa.

But, rather than a Republican disgusted with Strangeabbott? This:

The Dallas Morning News continues to display Suzanne Bellsnyder’s endorsement of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa despite acknowledging that Bellsnyder had an undisclosed paid consulting relationship with Hinojosa’s campaign. Financial records show the campaign paid Bellsnyder’s firm $57,000 in 2026.

Oops. 

And, Bennett is also right on the Snooze being wrong for not hauling down the online version.

I have no problem with Bellsnyder endorsing Ginojosa. 

I have huge problems with her not disclosing that she was, essentially, paid to write that op-ed. I have big enough problems with her not disclosing the paid consultancy in general.

It's a matter of journalistic ethics, since she runs a traditional newspaper as well as a Substack. And, she's probably getting roasted in Sherman County. 

I've had previous reasons to say "gack" to her as a newspaper publisher, and as a pseudo-environmentalist. 

And, perhaps it's because it was written after she got busted, but her Substack yesterday had just a voting guide with no endorsements.  (The guide was pretty bare-boned, too.)

The money? Chump change with what Elmo's spending.

The reach? Judging by the number of comments on most posts on her Substack, maybe not that many. That said, this summer, she had an apparently paywalled piece about Ginojosa. And, I'm not sure how much her Substack overlaps with the semi-syndicated columns she does for other newspapers. Was she paid for that? What else?

As for the overlap? If it's too tight, that may be an instance of self-plagiarism. And yes, such a thing is also talked about in journalism. And, her Nov. 2 voting guide piece appears to be a word-for-word of the column she sent out to newspapers last week; I checked one. (I don't run it myself.) Personally, I have once or twice dropped an EDITED version of a column of mine on Substack. Never here, because I can put it behind the paywall at Substack. And, it's always been non-political stuff, and non-time-sensitive stuff, so I can delay it, oh, 2-3 weeks.

Finally, from my own investigative side, why just Hinojosa? Does Bellsnyder think Talarico's brand of Christianity is a no-go vs. Paxton? That Vikki Goodwin wanting to legalize marijuana is a no-go against Dan Patrick? 

Further downballot, she clearly favors at least one Republican, Nate Sheets, versus Clayton Tucker, in the ag commish race, per this post. 

Texas Progressives drop an election tea leaves preview / postview

The Texas Progressive Alliance awaits all the tea leaves falling to the autumnal election floor with this week's Roundup.

Off the Kuff gives a final EV turnout report from Harris County.

SocraticGadfly, riffing on an old union TV commercial jingle, talks about looking for the no-Israel label (which is not the only boycott strategy he has).

Related: Mondoweiss reviews "Don't Say Palestine: How the Media Manufactured Consent for Genocide." (So do some allegedly pergressuve blogger media, by silence if nothing else, including silence about protests in Texas. People like Charles Kuffner.) The book's entree is wrong headlines in mainstream media, starting with the New York Times.

Kenny Boy Paxton, rather than sit complacent at the Alamo Monday night, pivoted to try to scrounge up votes in his Collin County Texas home turf and elsewhere in North Texas. Plus, it would have been Ill Eagle for him to do anything political on Alamo grounds. Selling bogus securities would still be OK, I guess.

Presumably,  he was looking for the mythical Texas moderate Republican, a rare bird that the Trib said was the target of last minute focuses in Tarrant County. (The bird is so rare that it should have an Endangered Species Act listing; the trope, on the other hand is common that it's a species of least concern. As for the Trib's story itself, many of the interviewed people are not "moderates" themselves, it has name spelling errors, and other things.)

The Monthly reported on how UT's official Tea-Sippers used legalese on student organizations to prohibit them from mentioning Bo French's racism, and how that legalese appears to be one-way hypocrisy.

The Monthly profiles the start of the Schitz, Nate Schatzline, working as Strangeabbott's elections guru, as a Christian nationalist deep Islamophobe, election conspiracy theorist and more.

Early voting statewide set a midterms, if not overall, record by percentage as well as numbers, breaking 2018's mark with more than 40 percent of registered voters casting early ballots.

Update on the bogus "transsexual and transgender" mailer: The Republican Women's Caucus Fund and John Braun (not Eva Braun in a pre-transition life) have been identified, per the Observer. 

Neil at Houston Democracy Project says be certain who to know to vote for in HCAD races, share that information with someone before or on 11/3, & be ready for low-turnout HCAD runoff(s) later in 2026.

The Great God Pan Is Dead hopes the latest report on Jeffrey Epstein will lead to some real consequences. 

The Dallas Observer looked at how Dallas County has made voting easier and how that may be playing out this year.

Mean Green Cougar Red has some bad news about the cost of Halloween candy.

The Barbed Wire talks to trans and queer Texans about the brutal campaign ads they're enduring.

If Darlene Graham loses in South Carolina, as Responsible Statecraft said was still possible Monday morning, ALL bets are off. Riffing on Krugman, all bets are off on how Götterdämmerung Trump goes on Iran, or on things in general. All bets are off on how a GOP minority in the House and Senate doubles down on MAGAt bunkering. And, yes, we've heard this before, but all bets are off on at least the medium-term as well as short-term future of the GOP. 

A Green Party troll blocked

I very rarely talk about blocks on Shitter because so many MAGAts get the banhammer.

This is different. One Andy Lee Parker didn't like the answer that I gave Proud Socialist Ryan Knight, from 2024, about why I did not vote for Jill Stein, but did, eventually, for nominal communist Claudia de la Cruz of the PSL. Stein's investment hypocrisies with mutual funds of her choice are well documented as I discussed.

Like Brains, but much more vehemently, she didn't like this, and beyond him, it wasn't just an issue of "ethical" mutual funds existing.

Instead, she asked if I paid taxes on things I didn't agree with.

I said that was a red herring, as mutual funds are an investment of choice. I also noted I'm an independent, critical leftist.

She then, when I was away from the computer, asked a "yes or no," then "I take that as yes" followed by blocking me.

I blocked her back.

I don't think she's on Substack, but this is her Wordpress — where he hasn't actually written in 7 years, so, not that skeptical or critical beyond the 280 characters of Shitter.

And, her Green anti-evangelism was only offputting in terms of 2028. 

Beyond everything else, the arguments about "perfection" she was using on me? Besides telling her de la Cruz wasn't perfect, either, these are arguments that Democrats have long used against Green types and other leftists in general. Totally not impressed. (At least she didn't tell me that I "really" voted for Kamala Harris.) 

Ken Klippenstein goes Fat Bear Pander Bearing

After writing about this on Blogger a week ago, with links to two Substack longer pieces and some roundup after that, I threatened to write a Round 2. And, yes, per the header, since Klippenstein said he was dropping stories every day this week, it's not just Pander Bearing, it's Fat Bear Pander Bearing.

Let's dig in with the snark. 

"Why you're not allowed to vote for the Michigan populist" is the subhed of a big Oct. 27 Klip Pander Bear about Abdul El-Sayed.

As I snarked:

Sweet! There’s now a law against voting for Abdul El-Sayed. Klippenstein forgot to provide the link to the sekrut NSA file. 

Ken, this is getting weak. And, the Pander Bear is getting stronger. There are no sekrut links. Just a quote from his opponent Mike Rogers and a letter to the editor of the Moonie Washington Times from a former Defense Intelligence Agency official wondering if El-Sayed could pass a security check. The fact that somebody from the Nat-Sec Nutsacks™ world is raising this is itself a matter for concern, but Klip then undercuts himself by snarking about forklift skills.

The real issue Ken misses on this one is conservative Muslims still supporting the GOP in spite of this type stupidity, in even more Islamophobic Tex-ass. 

Beyond that, my snark is better than yours. 

===

It started Oct. 26, when he talked about how three sekrut sources at the DOJ kept saying something about a "doomsday scenario." As I said in restacking? That same day, a federal judge — a TRUMP APPOINTED federal judge — rejected DOJ's attempt to get voter records from red-state Utah. And, this directly ties to Ken name-dropping nutter Harmeet Dhillon, who runs DOJ's Office of Civil Rights as an Assistant AG. In the Utah case, federal district judge David Barlow rejected the idea that the Civil Rights Act of 1960 compels Utah to turn over the files. 

Hartmeet Dhillon also lost on Oct. 27, when a grand jury no-billed Cassidy Hutchinson.

And Dhillon et al lost in California Oct. 28. And doubled the loss there on appeal two days later. And on Nov. 2, lost with the Supreme Court.

==

Oct. 28, Ken drops what he later admits is a semi-nothingburger about the National Guard being involved in election monitoring. He says that seven states so far have publicly admitted their national guard being involved. And, here's the data from the last two elections:

2022: 14 states used the Guard: Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Washington and West Virginia. 

2024: 15 states used the Guard to monitor cybersecurity and assist local authorities. They included Delaware, Illinois, New Mexico and West Virginia, none of which has publicly announced its involvement this year.

Remind me who was president then, Ken? 

Add this. As far as the "red" vs "blue" duopoly divide, how many of those states are "blue" states, Ken? More than zero, at a minimum. 

Add this from earlier this year, quoting Ken:

And in Colorado back in June, Governor Jared Polis ordered his Colorado National Guard to assist with election cybersecurity.

What initial does Polis, also allegedly a mild libertarian, have after his last name, Ken?  There's other govs with his last initial also listed, for this year, as acting that way.

Meanwhile, as I said on restacking his piece on Substack? Apparently none of Klip's sources gave him an advance notice about the MASSIVE leak of ICE-related information, as reported by Wired, Tech Crunch and many others. 

==

No post Oct. 29? But we were promised one every day leading up to the election! 

==

Oct. 30, Ken talks about Seb Gorka's comment in what he calls a "little-noticed Tuesday interview" about the First Amendment.

“We have that knee-jerk: ‘Oh, First Amendment, don’t do anything’ — but there are things we have to do if there’s a threat to national security that actually comports with the U.S. Constitution.”

Oh, stop the presses!

First, it was little noticed because it was with the E-Pooch Times, which is indeed little noticed even in East Wingnutistan. 

Second, the concept is nothing new.

Third, you took a day off and this is the best you could do? 

==

I may start a post-election Pander Bear Round 3, but Ken's already at again on Monday, Nov. 2. This piece about Trump's post-election Iran plans falling apart, looked like it might be halfway good, per the headline. Then, the first sentence of body copy? This:

Trump’s dream of a third term runs through a cinematic attack on Iran that decisively ends the war and wins back public support.

Ken, you know that's not happening and this is your biggest-ass Pander Bear to date. 

IF Ken were really doing leaks right now, rather than Blue Anon Pander Bear stuff, he’d have reported on this massive hack of ICE agents by name done over in Europe last week, even if he didn't get first dibs on it. Yes, as the piece I link notes, it's got a lot of old, out of date names. But, a lot are not out of date, nor are ICE groups they belong to and other things.

== 

Finally, Ken, I don't take a dime of corporate money either. Basically, you tried to jump outside the sandbox of the 80-20 power law for social media, followers and money, and lost. 

What wins will Texas Dems actually get?

From last week, on Texas Public Radio, Mark Jones of Rice, who's in most Texas political reporters' Rolodexes, weighs in. 

First, Talafreako:

Mark Jones of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, who coauthored the report, said Talarico's performance is the strongest late-campaign performance he's seen from a Texas Democrat in decades. 

"Even in 2018, [Democratic nominee and then-U.S. Rep.] Beto O'Rourke was trailing [Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz] in virtually every poll at this point in the race," Jones said. "In contrast, in most polls being done, Talarico has an advantage. Sometimes it’s as small as two [percentage points], like in this poll, or one. In a few, it’s as high as three or four, but it’s rare to find a poll that’s not linked to some party or some organization which is at least implicitly or explicitly towards Ken Paxton that has Paxton up." 

While the survey shows 98% of likely Democratic voters planning to vote for Talarico, only 88% of likely Republican voters said they plan to vote for Paxton. Six percent of Republican voters said they plan to vote for Talarico, compared to 1% of Democratic voters who plan to vote for Paxton.

I agree. For a full month now, Talarico has never trailed, and in most cases has had a polling lead at or outside the margin of error, as is the case in the UH/Hobby poll cited in the piece. Barring something extremely weird, I would say Kenny Boy Paxton is semi-toast. I won't go as far as Kuff and say this race is baked in, but it is semi-baked. 

Jones talked to Newsweek last week as well, this about Libertarian Ted Brown's presence in the race. Jones and Mark Rottinghaus note that he's a refuge for Republicans wanting to not vote Paxton but also not undervote. That said, even though Jones said polling shows about half of Brown's supporters are Republican and about half are the mythical "independents," and very few are Democrats, Brown claims Talarico supporters as well as Paxton backers have been pushing him to step aside.

They're not "vote Talarico" ads, but I have heard "don't vote Paxton" ads even on country music stations.

== 

Next, a briefer thought from Jones on most other statewide races:

"I think the only unknown for Republicans is will they be able to ensure that their voters actually turn out to the vote [this] cycle," Jones said. "And to the extent to which Republicans vote instead of staying home, Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, [state Sen. and Attorney General candidate] Mayes Middleton, [state Comptroller] Don Huffines, and others should be in good shape, although they may be sweating a bit until midnight passes and they see where most of the early vote and Election Day vote has been cast."

Semi-agreed. Dannie Goeb has claimed to be semi-sweating, but is he really? I don't totally agree with Jones on the gov's race, as, even though most polls have had Strangeabbott ahead, in his case, that's often been INside the margin of error.

He's probably got more sweating to do than any other Tex-ass statewide candidate, with one exception.

Step on up, Bo French:

The one other potential trouble spot Jones sees for Republicans is in the race for Texas Railroad Commissioner. Republican nominee Bo French has been embroiled in multiple scandals over social media posts over the past year and a half — the most recent being a screenshot of students of color at a University of Texas football game, which he claimed was evidence that "foreigners" were displacing Americans. 

The new survey shows French leading his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Jon Rosenthal, by 45% to 43%, with Libertarian Arthur DiBianca at 2% and 10% of voters still unsure who they'll support. 

"We do know that the more people learn about Bo French, the less they like Bo French," Jones said. "But if more than half of voters don’t know who Bo French is, that’s good for both French and bad for Jon Rosenthal, who by comparison also is not at all well-known, with close to three out of four likely voters having no idea who Rosenthal is."

Agreed there. Rosenthal has lamented the lack of money in his campaign coffers. (That said, he got about 75 percent as much as French in the third quarter, the Trib says.) Other than money, the biggest thing that would help him? Talafreako co-campaigning at several events. Or, especially in metropolitan areas, Jasmine Crockett hitting a couple of his events. But time is running out.

I have looked at the Ag Commish and RRC races last week. I've written plenty about the Senate race and a fair amount about the governor's tilt.

In the Lege, I'll give Texas Dems eight House pickups, maybe 10 at the outside. I'll still eat my hat if they win a dozen, contra a dumb Trib article that I wrote about a while back. I'll eat Kendall Scudder's hat and say he's not all bad, contra my most recent of many takes otherwise, if they take control of the House. 

Per this decent-sounding prognosticator recommended by CD Hooks at Texas Monthly, as of last Tuesday, it appeared EV was giving Democrats a strong edge, especially as rural voting trailed previous elections. 

I may do a second update of this on pre-Election Day Monday, or may not. 

== 

Anyway, I'll give you some percentages.

Talafreako is more than odds on.

Hinojosa is about 30 percent, and Goodwin about 20 percent.

If either or both lose by less than 2 percentage points, as I said on Wednesday, part of the blame will either be on them for not trying to land joint campaign appearances with Talafreako or else on him for dismissing those attempts.

Otherwise?

First, pollsters claim they are adjusting for MAGAts deliberately spoiling polls. Are they adjusting enough?

Second, it's more than a cliche or stereotype. Tex-ass is a low-voting state until proven otherwise, and that helps Rethuglicans.

Third, despite somewhat "wired" rural Republicans like Suzanne Bellsnyder hinting that it's OK to vote Democrat (while having one hand on the bible and the other on the Constitution of course!) many rural voters are still locked in to pulling the R lever, metaphorically speaking since we don't have straight-ticket voting any more. Some may undervote Paxton, but that's it.

Fourth, Strangeabbott has shown he has no problem passing out empty promises like Halloween candy, such as his vacuous "audits" of and "pause" on data centers and his "pause" on Flock grants. Indeed, the Observer notes that the state has continued permitting data centers even after his pause, and then lying about it.

Fifth, for the rurales, Trump has shown that, via Brookie Rollins at USDA, and trying to get some of Putin's diesel, he's ready to pass out all sorts of ag bribery — even as he pisses off ranchers with his imported beef orders and rounding up alleged Ill Eagles at feedlots and meatpacking plants. 

==

Update, Oct. 31: 538's Reddit claims many polls (doesn't say whether that includes its aggregations or anything else) have overreacted to underestimating Trump 2024.