Trib analyzes duopoly's ad priorities

Here's the details:

A Blast analysis of campaign advertising data from AdImpact shows that, of the $359 million Republicans have spent in Texas since June 2, their top issues are crime, taxation, transgender minors, transgender sports, “character” and LGBTQ+ rights. Of the $156.1 million Democrats have spent in that time, they’ve focused on taxation, healthcare, character, corruption, inflation and bipartisanship. 

Over the summer, Democrats’ leading issues in advertisements were healthcare, inflation, housing and bipartisanship. Since Labor Day, healthcare advertising has fallen to the wayside while ads about crime, corruption and special interests became leading issues. And thanks to a late focus on taxation by Democrats the last two weeks, that topic skyrocketed into the party’s No. 1 most expensive issue of the general election at $35.8 million spent since June 2 — $16.9 million of that since Sept. 29. 

On the Republican side, taxation was their candidates’ leading campaign issue until mid-September, when crime and transgender issues overtook everything else. Republicans have spent $103.1 million on crime-centric advertising, with tax-focused ads at $92.7 million. When combining the three, transgender minors, transgender sports and LGBTQ+ rights take the top spot at $119 million.

And, yes, it may be from an outsider PAC, but as I wrote a week ago, Elmo's PAC has contributed mightily to the GOP and GOP-linked stupidity on this shift.

And, as I said yesterday, on the fake transgender student organization ads, this shift smacks of desperate, despicable and dumb.

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Otherwise, neither duopoly party is tacking environmentalism in any big way. Of course, both halves sold out on Prop 4, and even Texas Greens did. That said, can't believe this isn't being tackled more in non-Senate races, to tar other Rethuglicans with Bo French not having any plans for environmental abandoned well cleanup.

And, of course the Democrats abandoned health care. 

Fake transgender ads under investigation

I forgot that Sarah Stogner — the 2024 Republican primary challenger for a RRC slot, and DEFINITELY not your typical Texas Republican — is now a DA. And, as a DA, she's opened an investigation into possible forgery charges in that fake transgender voter mailing of earlier this month:

Stogner said her constituents are angry and concerned about their children being “exposed” to the material in the mailers. She also said if the pamphlets were sent to motivate conservatives to vote, the effort was self-defeating. 

“If we were actually worried about kids and their safety, no one would be sending propaganda to spread that message further on television ads, in text messages, in written whatever,” she said. “If we are truly trying to protect children, we’d be focusing on how to put pedophiles in jail.”

And, she's not alone:

Stogner’s investigation follows two letters from state Rep. Jeff Leach, R-Plano, that asked Attorney General Ken Paxton to investigate the origin of the mailers as well as a series of text messages that similarly referenced TENT. 

While Leach’s first letter, spurred by the texts, asked Paxton to investigate potential violations of a state law related to student-organized groups and materials taught in public schools, his second letter asked to uncover the identity of the sender. 

“Since sending that letter one week ago, I have received new information raising the possibility that the communications and associated toolkit may not originate from the group whose name it was sent under,” Leach wrote.

That said, Jeff, do you really think Kenny Boy is going to investigate? No way in hell, either before or after he loses to Talafreako Nov. 3. 

And, yeah, Stogner's right. It smacks of desperation, almost as much desperation as "Revive with Vivek" Ramaswamy's despicable ad featuring addled lies (the best I can call them) from the mom of his Democratic opponent in the Ohio gubernatorial race, Amy Acton. 

In both cases, to complete the alliteration trifecta, beyond being desperate and despicable, they're just plain dumb. 

And, speaking of that? Per what I said last week about his own PAC's stupid direct mail fliers, it wouldn't surprise me if Elmo is somehow connected. 

That said, there is a side note to all of this.

Where are are major metropolitan area counties' DAs, you know, from Dallas, Harris and Travis? Were they afraid of being called "partisan" if they opened an investigation? 

Ken Klippenstein, BlueAnon Pander Bear

That's especially if you feel the need to pander to Blue MAGA for fiscal reasons.

And, Klip probably does. As I called him out, here, and here, no, he didn't defend Platner on the rape claims. So, I'm not attacking him on that, though the belief that he was still defending Platner, by his boatload of smug on how he retreated from Platner, and how he retreated ONLY on this, is why I've called him out and will continue to do so. It may be why some more discriminating BlueAnon have stopped paid subscriptions.

Not only did he spin on Platner's Totenkopf? Worse, he spun on a guy going to Hotchkiss as an "everyman" and has never apologized. He doubled down on Platner's lack of vetting and behind shoved in Maine Democrats' face by a consultant with a problematic history. He stood by the whole idea that "owning the New Democrats" was the key. 

Ken, even if some others are misinterpreting you, per the two links above, I am NOT. And, whether misinterpreted or correctly so (I linked to Mike Elk, with Pennsylvania knowledge about the consultant), you have not apologized for what you did get wrong, nor the apparent smug of "owning the New Democrats" even when it blew up on you. And, this IS when your donations fell off a cliff. 

So, how to pander, and get readers back?

A quasi-clickbait headline, "Trump's Finger Gets Closer to Nuclear Button." I deconstructed that over on Substack in this piece.

Bottom line?

As Ken said himself of Elbridge Colby, his own piece looked to try to hit the Goldilocks middle ground. Not too much pandering, not too little. Not too much clickbait. Not too little.

Just right.

No rules, either! 

We'll see if Ken actually can sit tight. I've set this version to go up eight days later than the Substack one. Also, to avoid responses, his name isn't in the title of the Substack version.

Answer is, at least the pre-election answer, that Ken canNOT "sit tight." 

I wound up writing not one but two, or actually three if we count his pandering about Trump and Nidal Hasan's execution, pieces at Substack, a full week before this went up here on Blogger. 

I then added a restack/note to No. 3, after Ken posted yet another piece about Hasan's execution. I quote it:

Klippenstein thinks he needs to write a whole post about how Hegseth is sending a raspberry to uniformed military by having Hasan executed by firing squad, while ignoring the angle that Pete thinks soldiers firing gunz is more manly than dropping a trap door for hanging, and that post-Christa Pike, he's probably worried about the Army fucking up a lethal injection. 

Ken also forgets that the original plan WAS for live-streaming, and soldiers shooting gunz looks much more cool than dropping a trap door or inserting a needle. 

I guess Ken's fixated on this right now, and yes, I'm semi-fixated on wondering why. Actually, I’m not, other than the small bit of me wondering if there’s any angle beyond being a Pander Bear.

Gack, Ken. This isn't even good critical thinking. 

And, a day later, Ken writes about oil company profiteering over the Iran war. The "crack spread" between the price of crude and its various refined products is not new. Evan Rowe wrote about the crack spread and a whole bunch of related issues on Substack two-plus month ago. 

And, as I said in restacking Ken:

Also, don’t forget that a certain percentage of Democrats, even if small, still halfway back the war against Iran, and an even bigger portion back the genocidal country on whose behalf Trump attacked Iran. And, I’m sure many of these people get campaign contributions from the likes of eXXXon too.)

There you are. 

Maybe your subscribers will return. Maybe they won’t. Even after the midterms, if Dems do take control of both sides of Congress, you may still have to eat at least a small plate of apologetic crow for a lot of them to come back.

You made your bed by being a stubborn stack of shit over Graham Platner, Ken. Deal with it. 

And, you may continue to lose unpaid subscribers as well. 

Texas Progressives ready for the start of early voting

Off the Kuff interpreted a poll of Harris County and what level of support James Talarico needs to have there to win statewide. 

SocraticGadfly released his Gadfly slate.

Gadfly also reminds the BlueAnon folks, via the Trib, that Team Red is hitting early voting hard as well, at least on Day 1. Just north of Kuff's Helltown, Montgomery County set a Day 1 turnout record. So did wingnut Ellis County south of Dallas, and also reddish-purple McLennan County (Waco). By the end of this week, some of the demographics mentioned in the Trib's Point 4 will start taking shape. Related? El Paso County, with a large Hispanic population, had its second-highest first-day midterm voting ever, versus 2018, where local son Beto-Bob O'Rourke had his first statewide race, versus Havana Ted Cruz.

Trump doesn't need federal troops at polls for voter repression; all he needs to do is have other states handle new voter registration like Texas DPS, which is being sued over this.

Even the Lite Guv race is heating up, if Danny Goeb is worried enough to mention Vikki Goodwin by name. This is the one statewide race where I said "vote Democrat" on the Gadfly slate.

Talarico personally massively outraised Paxton in the third quarter. Yes, he has to face Elmo's PAC and others that have massively outraised his own PAC support, but still ... will he be spending more of it as he hits the finish line? 

The Monthly talks about how Paxton and Strangeabbott trumped up bogus fraud claims against the East Plano Islamic Center.

Texas Parks and Wildlife is, or was, reportedly looking at selling Boca Chica State Park to Elmo. I'm sure the only, or at least the primary, reason the Nov. 5 agenda got changed is because of Nov. 3. 

A drunken Tex-ass dad fatally shot his daughter, living with his ex-wife in Britain but having come over to visit, at the end of an argument over Trump. He was no-billed after a botched investigation (shock me) and Collin County (shock me) has no interest in re-opening said investigation. 

Neil at the Houston Democracy Project posted about a new well-resourced ICE spy/intelligence service that has Houston on its list of places it will operate.  

The data center oversight that Strangeabbott and Paxton tout? Violations are only $500, so most companies are doing nothing, and for all you and I know, are they even being fined? 

Texas Monthly reviews the most recent "dumbest week ever" in our state's politics.

"Maria Puerto" explains why she sued four members of Students for Life.

The Great God Pan Is Dead finds another example of Jeffrey Epstein's corrosive effect on the art world, some of which have a Houston connection.

Mean Green Cougar Red hopes the Topo Chico shortage of 2026 is finally over.  

Courier Texas summarizes the Ken Paxton audio leaks so far.

Dade Phelan has departing words for fellow Texas Republicans

In confirmation of even Dannie Goeb worried about the Lite Guv race, Matthew McDade "Dade" Phelan, former Speaker of the Texas House says Texas Republicans "are freaking out." Per my piece earlier this week about Elmo's PAC and what's on its direct mail, Phelan calls out this type of advertising stupidity. Talarico's first billboard in my area, on the other hand, talks about health care costs and the percentage of Texans on Medicaid.

Phelan also takes a last shot at how Goeb handled Kenny Boy's impeachment. He adds that, by Patrick doing this and eventually leading to a flawed Paxton getting the Senate nod, it's hurt Republican Senate candidates in other states.

Phelan left open the door for voting for Talarico and said he definitely wouldn't vote for Paxton. Nor for Bo French for Railroad Commish. 

He next brings up the 800-pound gorilla.

Trump is just pushing a lot down on you, and you own it if you’re a Republican. You just do. I’m not a Trump guy. Never have been a Trump guy. If I were running for election, I would be pushing back and calling out all of Trump’s mistakes. But if you’re a Trump supporter, it’s tough to get out from underneath that.

And, of course, zero Texas Rethugs, at least those running for statewide office, have pushed back. 

As for vote results? Without naming any particular races, he said that if the election were to have been held the date of the interview (it published Oct. 14), Republicans would lose statewide races. 

It's a long-form interview worth a read.

Ag Commish race gets sharper elbows

As Clayton Tucker and Nate Sheets tangle for Ag Commish, Tucker finally admits he's a hypocrite for owning Energy Transfer stocks, something I had already called him out for, though it's worse than I thought. Energy Transfer is providing natural gas for a data center in his backyard, per this piece. 

Tucker's response? This:

“Do I plan to divest from Energy Transfer? Probably, yeah,” Tucker said. “Again, when I bought it two or three years ago, I was not aware it was related to AI. But to say you have to completely divest of stocks, I mean, you’re basically telling every American with a 401k to sell 40% of it right now.”

Erm, really?

First, you should know, and probably do, that ethical mutual funds exist. Yes, a 401(k) is usually a company retirement investment, not an individual one, but I'll bet ethical 401(k) accounts also exist. You should pressure your company. 

Second, it appears you actually mean something like a personal mutual fund, albeit structured as a personal 401(k) for retirement. I'm sure such things exist.

Third, you surely knew who Energy Transfer was when you first bought its stocks. 

And, as with Jill Stein, I don't have a problem calling out the hypocrisy. 

As for the data centers themselves? Oh, the irony in the Observer's piece about this race, with Tucker talking about the noise from data centers disturbing livestock. 

Maybe that's one of those claims:

Tucker’s campaign makes walk the line between conspiratorial or, at the very least, dubious. One alarming claim on his website about Flock cameras connecting to personal phones through Bluetooth cites only a Reddit video posted on r/diabetes as evidence. Even anti-Flock activists have called this out as false. And the site’s stated opposition to proposed 765-kilovolt transmission lines in Texas lines warns misleadingly plays up the threat of “electromagnetic radiation.”

Per the Observer story.

And, if we're worried about electromagnetic radiation under high-voltage lines, is Tucker also concerned about 5G cell phones? 

And, while the Observer's story is about Tucker as populist, and focuses on his would-be ties to Jim Hightower, it notes that nationally, the term applies to everybody from Sheepdogger Bernie Sanders to Dementia Donald Trump. And, yes, some of the claims sound Trumpian, like stuff he's said about wind farms. 

Finally, the story notes that Tucker has been missing an opportunity to talk about farmworkers as well as farms.

Maybe it's not missed but deliberate oversight. We all know Tex-ass is a low-voting state even more than a Republican state, and Hispanic farmworkers, even if citizens eligible to vote, aren't a big voting target. 

Beyond the story, I looked at a few of his Facebook videos. Kind of silly, like the one claiming Folgers was overcharging for coffee. First, the price itself, as marked, is the controlling factor. Probably the price-per-ounce is "wrong" because it wasn't updated when the actual price went up. Second, weights and measures issues aren't under the remit of the Texas Department of Ag anyway.