A preliminary Tex-ass election preview and "Gadfly slate"

Location: Ranch fence line along US Highway 82, Texoma area of North Texas. Author photo.

Yes, I’m a third-party voter, but seeing a Talafreako sign on a ranch fence line is something. That’s even more when it’s not alone, and it’s accompanied by a Hinojosa one.

I think the issue of yard sign counts is overstated, as I said in a comment to another post in last week’s Texas Progressives round-up on my Blogger site. I remember Beto-Bob, aka R.F. O’Rourke, had lots of them in 2018 and some Havana/Cancun/Calgary Ted backers started freaking out. Well, 8 years later, R.F. is trying to make a reputation as a political influencer or whatever the hell he’s doing these days, because he’s not sitting in the upper half of the U.S. Senate.

Anyway, here’s a roundup of stuff from Blogger that I’ve written recently.

On the Talafreako sign? I still have my doubts that rural voters will turn Texas blue, having heard and read a full decade of former Texas Democrats’ jefe Gilberto Hinojosa claim that demographic destiny would turn Texas blue.

Second, I have proof positive that Democratic Comptroller candidate Sarah Eckhardt is a squish on BDS. (Texas Greens are generally dead to me right now over Proposition 4, but I will vote Green in this race.) That said, ANYbody would be better than interim head Dreamy Don Huffines, who has taken the politicization of the office to new levels. (I have filed an official complaint.)

Third, “All things Paxton” (thanks, NPR) details Kenny Boy’s ongoing struggles for money as compared to Talarico, plus his most recent ethics violation.

Democratic Ag Commish candidate Clayton Tucker has a boatload of bad stocks unethical investments, including multiple oil companies.

Here’s part 1 and part 2 on Talafreako the hypocritico.

Next, per one of those Pergressuves roundups, the Monthly mildly called Hinojosa for a recent campaign ad that it noted was essentially a pro-life ad and even more, stressed that her ad that the Tex-ass Lege’s anti-abortion law has pretty much eliminated the medical assistance she had to take a problematic pregnancy to term.

From earlier this summer, I’ll eat my hat, I said, if Texas Dems flip TWELVE state House seats. (That would still leave them one short of a tie.) And, even if Kenny Boy, or Trump’s gas prices, or Strangeabbott’s see-through hypocrisy on data centers and Flock cameras, or all of the above, are boat anchors, I’ll stand by that.

From last week, contra this Siena / Recon poll, which says it polled likely voters, I will doubly or triply eat my hat if Vikki Goodwin defeats incumbent Lite Guv Danny Goeb. It also has a lead for Talafreako outside the polling margin of error and for Hinojosa, right at that. Marist has now released its latest poll and it too has Talarico with a lead outside the margin of error (even as a majority of respondents think Kenny Boy will win) and Hinojosa ahead. In both polls, the Democrat is still at a plurality, not a majority, but as pundits and pundit-watchers know, for incumbents to be underwater this late, even if their opponent does not have a majority, is not good news for them.

On the GOP side, people who know something about Texas probably HAVE heard of the Railroad Commission. And, yes, Bo French is that nuts. Karl Rove, yes, Turd Blossom himself, has said he’s not undervoting the race, he’s voting for Democrat Joe Rosenthal. And, the lying liars at the Texas Monthly claim Republicans as a class have repudiated French when they haven't.

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My preliminary “Gadfly ballot” is:

Undervote Senator

Undervote Congresscritter (gack)

Undervote Gov

Possibly undervote Lite Guv, depending on what answer Green Kevin McCormick has about 2025’s Proposition 4, per my latest callout of Texas Greens on this issue; I webmail contacted him last week.

Possibly undervote AG

Green Shela Faizi for Comptroller

Probably undervote General Land Office.

Probably vote Rosenthal for RRC.

Definitely undervote Ag Commish.

"Iran’s president says Tehran wants a deal with U.S. before midterm elections"

#BigIfTrue but …

But why would you, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, say this out loud? TRUMP saying the similar? No surprise.

But, Iran, which has kept the upper hand? Aren’t you surrendering it?

“We don’t want it to get to the midterm elections,” Pezeshkian said Thursday in a brief meeting with NBC News and other news organizations on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

“We wish Americans to return to the MOU before the midterms,” Pezeshkian added, referring to a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran that laid out plans for a temporary ceasefire.

Sure sounds to me like a surrender.

One option of what’s behind this? Wrongfooting Trump’s comments at the UNGA:

“I believe we’ll make a deal right after the election because it doesn’t make sense for them not to,” Trump said. “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election.”

In this case, we’re in the world of Shrub Bush strategery. Pezeshkian thinks Trump’s comment reflects that he’s worried about the midterms, and somebody is telling him that he’s got one week, no more, left before it’s too late to even mildly and consistently influence downward oil, gasoline and diesel prices before the election, and definitely before early voting starts in many states.

And, that bolded “consistently” is key.

We’re in the world of Trump peddling the latest round of Norman Vincent Peale vs Pezeshkian peddling the latest round of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khoumenei or something. And, since the ultimate audience for Trump’s peddling of Peale is one person — himself — Pezeshkian should know better.

I mean, even during Trump 1.0, it was pretty much a mug’s game for anybody trying to outthink him. Now, in Trump 2.0, the word “think” isn’t even operative.

Option 2 is that Iran is worried that in the “lame duck” session, Trump will be more pissed than now, especially if Democrats retake the Senate as well as the House in midterms. In that case, they must be looking at Kalshi and other predictions markets.

Option 3? Hardliners in the mullahs, Revolutionary Guards or other elements are pushing Pezeshkian and this is ultimately a statement for internal public consumption. Exactly what that pressure might be, I don’t know. I’m not an Iran expert, but, that said, I’ve heard nothing recently about such pressure.

There had been pressure before the UNGA, but that appears to have abated, per this piece. Note this:

A notable signal came from Yahya Rahim Safavi, a former commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who now serves as military adviser to [Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei].

“If the leader of the revolution has now deemed it in the country’s interest and has left the government open to negotiations, that is a very important act of prudence,” Maj Gen Safavi said, leaving room for talks without requiring Iran’s security establishment to describe them as a retreat.

So, right now, he’s OK again. Or is he?

Also from the same piece, note this:

The ultraconservative Kayhan newspaper warned that “New York is not a place for smiles and negotiations”, urging Mr Pezeshkian instead to turn the UN into “a courtroom for American crimes”. Other hardline voices have questioned whether Iran should have attended the General Assembly at all.

There you are.

Option 4 could be trying to further undercut Netanyahu’s UNGA visit, but per this piece, I don’t think that needs much help.

And more Substack blocks — vile Islamophobia and antisemitism

Gary Bolyer, a fundagelical who includes Islamophobia as part of his fundagelicalism.

Boatsailor566, an all-around creeptard. 

Nurit Steinfeld, an Israeli Zionist exceptionalist. 

Shirli Ganske — low-level Zionist, big level Trump Delusional Syndrome parader. 

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Jordan Nuttall. Antisemitic not anti-Zionist with multiple "Rothschild" pieces. General conspiracy theorist about "great families," and adenochrome and other nuttery.

Books Behind Borders. Holocaust denialist. Damn, I need to remember to pull the trigger quicker; she blocked me first, and Substack blocking is non-reciprocal, another teh suck. I did report her before quote-stacking her.

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Ronin: Supports BBB's Holocaust denialism, and is a 9/11 falser. 

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Texas Progressives

Off the Kuff covered the most favorable poll Democrats have seen in many years. 

SocraticGadfly, from taking a wrong turn on summer vacation, wrote about "breeder reactor porn," of relevance with the continued push for data centers and such.

The Monthly notes that many Big Bend businesses are refusing service to people associated with border wall construction, and that this in turn is part of a larger division in the area. 

The Trib profiles the wingnut diaper dandy (and chickenshit friend of Mucus) who is the Dreamy Don Huffines' right-hand man in his overt politicization of the comptroller's office as its acting head. 

Neil at the Houston Democracy Project said upcoming October 17 No Kings protests have themes of early voting & election protection. Just the program. There will be No Kings protests across the Houston region. You can set one up on your corner. The next action is when you organize it.

Your Local Epidemiologist explains what AI can and cannot do in biosecurity.

The Dallas Observer notes Rep. Jasmine Crockett's Chris Brown troubles

 Space City Weather tells you what you need to know about Super El Nino.

Suzanne Bellsnyder reminds us that a state income tax is expressly forbidden by the constitution, no matter what those ads on TV say.

The Current argues that Trump's mass deportation scheme has left us a weaker nation.

Clickbait liars at the Texas Monthly vs Bo French's weaselshits and defenders

Texas media inaccuracies alert! Contra the header, and as the Monthly admits in the body of the story, no "Republicans" (as a body) have NOT NOT NOT "rebuke[d]" Bo French's racism.

More accurate? The Trib notes the awl bidness, the guys he could be regulating, have been largely silent about French's racism. 

More accurate yet? The Observer does a roundup of Rethuglicans still explicitly defending him. 

Among French’s defenders in the GOP is Matt Rinaldi, former chairman of the Texas Republican Party, who lauded French for “pushing the Overton window on immigration.” Texas state Representative Andy Hopper, who represents a North Texas district, attacked Cornyn as a “smug globalist” after the senator spoke out. State Republican Executive Committee member Rolando Garcia wrote that French’s post was not evidence of successful assimilation—the students are all wearing burnt orange and celebrating the sport of American football—but rather the problems of “mass migration” and “ethnic enclaves.” Monty Bennett, the publisher of the Dallas Express and a major Republican donor who has contributed $5,000 to French’s campaign, shared French’s post with a statement that appeared to endorse French’s assessment: “The problem is much bigger than UT. … America must prioritize Americans, always.” Brandon Hall, an elected member of the State Board of Education, wrote that he stood with French and asserted that the issue wasn’t about “skin color” but rather “preserving our Texas way of life.” And Jake Lloyd Colglazier, president of the Fort Worth Young Republicans, who was reported to have ties to white nationalists in 2022 and previously worked for a group Bennett quietly funded, wrote that French’s “perfectly reasonable post demonstrates the deleterious effect of mass immigration on our democratic system.”

And, re the Trib's "silence" of the oil and gas world, the Monthly goes on to note the silent weaselshits in the GOP. 

Instead of clearly picking a side, two of the most influential statewide Republicans also found ways to make statements without saying much about French at all. Governor Greg Abbott, who backed French’s opponent in the primary but has since endorsed him, didn’t condemn French, instead saying “that’s not my message,” calling the photo “selective,” and touting his recent freeze of H-1B visas at Texas universities. Texas Attorney General and U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton condemned “racism in all of its forms” without mentioning French while accusing his Senate election opponent, James Talarico, of being racially divisive.

Finally, there's past backbone, current weaselshit. 

At least once in the past, French backed down in the face of criticism over a similarly offensive post. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick demanded French resign from his role as the Tarrant County GOP chair last year after French published a poll on X asking whether Jews or Muslims were a bigger threat to America. French deleted the post and said he regretted it. (Patrick has so far remained silent on social media regarding French’s latest post.)

There you are. 

Clutching pears, without tots, at Lone Star Left

Lone Star Left, which I consider meh at best, has a callout of Republicans for calling out Bo French's racism in the past while allegedly being racist themselves. Fail on the major premise that mid-decade redistricting was prima facie racist, but not shocked by Michelle Davis making the claim. It's also funny, with a photo showing an anonymous lady clutching "pearls," for Davis' text to repeatedly say "pears." Now, Rethuglicans WILL clutch pears when offering "tots and pears" for people killed in gun violence, but that's about it.

Davis is also one of those tribalist Dems who have quit Shitter but stay on Fuckbook, Hucksterman, or whatever you want to call it. You know, like hypocritical Popehat Ken White. Of course, being on Substack would itself be hypocritical.