Texas primary initial takeaways

The first one is that polls are shit, especially as push polls in disguise. In the Democratic Senate primary, first, many late polls had Jasmine Crockett ahead, though a few tilted for James Talarico. And, Talarico won with room to spare. Said polls also showed Kenny Boy Paxton well ahead of Big John Cornyn, leading Kenny Boy to claim he could win outright. Rather, not only did he not win outright, Cornyn took a plurality.

Even worse, on the GOP side, all the most recent polls showed Sid Miller holding on to his Ag Commissioner seat vs Nate Sheets. In reality, Sheets topped him. 

The second reality is that media thin-outs continue to affect polling. The Trib's last piece on how Miller seemed to have a big lead was based on polling done before Strangeabbott, on top of all others, had endorsed Sheets. So, it was out of date. 

The third is that The Donald's coattails mean less and less. See "Miller, Sid."

The fourth is that even Strangeabbott's coattails, complete with maneuverings, aren't always so long. Look at the Dreamy Don Huffines crushing Kelly Hancock.

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Next, questions. 

Will Talarico continue his R.F. O'Rourke 2.0 strategery and go mosey to Muleshoe in the general? (Yes.)

(I do have to laugh, then call bullshit, with Shitheads on Shitter claiming "Bolsheviks and Marxists" are behind Talarico. No, they're not. But, identitarian politics is — and talking about transgender abortion needs when gender is not sex, and when you've previously claimed that Luke 1 and the Annunciation is about reproductive choice, indicates he'll double down on identitarian politics, especially when it ties to reproductive issues.)  

What will he say about Iran? Or Zionism? (As little as possible.) 

How much on board will Crockett be with any personal support? (She'll be mid.)

Cornyn or Paxton in the runoff? Does Kenny Boy finally get the kiss from The Donald? (I'd give 60-40 odds on Paxton winning, no idea on The Donald.)

Will the Trib or anybody else give any love to Greens and Libertarians in the general?

 

Texas Progressives - the rest of this week and non-primary items

Texas Progressives offer some recent news roundup insights while saluting the Iranian resistance to American imperialism, especially this Zionist-fueled portion of it. I am sure that I'm the only member of the Texas "Pergressuves" to fully oppose this war, and it's a war, Democraps as well as Rethuglicans who are lying.

As The Dissident notes, Iran was prepared for an attempt to force regime change by assassinating Ayatollah Khamenei and adds the likely backfiring effect in that this will increase the likelihood it builds a bomb. Trump now wants to try to get Kurdish militias involved, which risks Iraq and/or Turkey attacking them.

The Monthly interviews Jenny Lawson, aka "The Bloggess," whom I personally think is kind of "mid,"to use a young kids' social media word, about her latest book. 

Forest Wilder gets the Monthly up to speed in talking about Trump's truly stupid desire to run a section of border wall through Big Bend. Per my Monday roundup about primaries, Ag Commish Sid Vicious Miller is all in, of course.

The Barbed Wire takes a both serious and snarky look at White Date, a dating site that's for exactly who it sounds like it's for. 

Neil at the Houston Democracy Project said Republican Houston Councilmember Julian Ramirez left his Republican Party & himself off his list of top election security threats in Harris County.

Saraí Bejarano explains why they are fighting to protect Hispanic Serving Institutions in Texas.  

Tom Palladino and Linda Mais urge better support for caregivers.

The TSTA Blog wonders how the State Board of Education would handle the social studies curriculum standards post-Trump.

 

Texas Progressives offer pre-primary thoughts

Texas Progressives await primary election results and possible runoffs even as this leftist corner reminds you there are more than two political parties in Texas. 

Off the Kuff looks at the most recent pre-primary poll of the Democratic race for US Senate. 

SocraticGadfly asked rhetorically what HAVE Texas Republicans accomplished in the past 25 years?

Black on Black, old vs. young? The Observer dives into the 18th Congressional District primary between incumbent Al Green and Christian Menafee. Note to the Observer? I had no idea that Trump's 2025 pseudo-State of the Union happened in 2024.

Tying in with my piece Monday and his endorsements, the Observer, in "More Money than Greg," notes Abbott's massive war chest:

[I]s at this point a political clearinghouse combined with an investment firm. His campaign regularly invests donors’ contributions into U.S. Treasury notes and CDs from banks. (Yes, this is, per the state’s campaign finance laws, legal, so long as the funds are not converted for personal use.) In 2026, Abbott raised about $42 million and purchased more than $30 million in investments—mostly in T-bills. He also earned a return of over $40 million, campaign finance records show. Not bad for a public servant.

Is far far bigger than Dan Patrick's or anybody else's. The rest of the story is about the massive lack of political ethics rules and enforcement.

Primary election thoughts and predictions and looking ahead

Per this, this and this, by me, let's dig in. Other links follow as needed.

I think the Senate race on the Rethuglican side goes to a runoff between the big two. Sorry, Wesley Hunt. For Democraps, having read the latest polling from the Trib, I guess it's Crockett's race to lose. Did her hit job on Talarico push her up that much? There are other polls, though, putting him ahead.

The Trib gushes that both have a national profile. She had only a backbencher social media national profile before deciding to run; he didn't even have that. The fact that R.F. O'Rourke also gushes shows where Texas Democraps actually are at.

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Both parties' AG, GOP Comptroller and GOP RRC are heading to a runoff.

On all of the above, plus Guv and Lite, I'll undervote the general in all likelihood, though I have said I'd consider Nathan Johnson for AG if he gets the Dem nod. (Crockett is as much a squish on Zionism as Talarico and Greens have no Senate candidate.)

Democraps have nobody for either of the top two executive positions,  and I've heard nothing in terms of special ideas from the Doinks running for Comptroller. Greens have nobody for these offices other than Comptroller and Lite Guv.

Kevin McCormick for Lite Gov sounds interesting but not jazzy. Shehla Fahzi for Comptroller? A Muslim who promises to trash all anti-BDS language in the Comptroller's office, a pledge I am unaware of Dem Sarah Eckhardt making. The Observer has a piece on her, but that issue was not raised.

For Ag Commissh,I won't vote for Alfred Molison, the Green, unless he admits the party was wrong to endorse Prop 4, the water amendment, and explain environmentally what is wrong with it.  

Speaking of? The Donald, going mano-a-mano with Strangeabbott, has endorsed incumbent Sid Miller in the GOP ag race. Abbott, in his first endorsement of a challenger in an executive race, broke for Nate Sheets some time ago. Given Trump's recent track record plus his general cluelessness in such races, along with this coming out after early voting was done make it next to worthless. (Yes, Rethugs more than Doinks vote on election day, but still.) 

He also endorsed the dreamy Don Huffines in the comptroller's race. Abbott, of course, is all in for Kelly Hancock, his nominee to temporarily fill the spot. That that said, the Trib notes that Trump may be a bandwagoner here, as Miller and Huffines hold polling leads. OTOH, the poll the Trib links was run before Abbott's endorsement of Sheets. 

The Observer, in "More Money than Greg," notes Abbott's massive war chest and how he throws it around. 

Texas progressives look toward election day

Off the Kuff rounded up all his interviews and Q&As for the primary cycle, including the late-breaking interview with Rep. Sylvia Garcia in CD29.

SocraticGadfly had a Texas environmental news roundup.

Texas could be the country's largest data center state by 2030. Have fun with all that Proposition 4 water supply that's supposed to flow in abundance.

A federal judge gave student sexual orientation clubs in Houston, Katy and Plano ISDs legal protection, at least for now.

J.W. Wingate broke the color line in minor-league baseball in Texas. Texas Monthly takes a deep dive. Showing how pervasive the reach of minor-league baseball was back then? He played for a team in Lamesa.

Colt McCoy, Strangeabbott's new flunky on the Higher Education Coordinating Board, talked out of his "I'm not up to speed yet ass" about DEI and other things. Michael Hardy could have pushed him more. 

Neil at Houston Democracy Project posted about upcoming protest in Conroe regarding conditions at Texas ICE detention concentration camps, and of course ignores Leqaa Kordia. A local activist group & Harris County Democratic Club are co-organizers. Each day people realize while voting is essential, it won't be enough.

The Texas Signal shows how Austin is fighting homelessness with tiny houses.

The Barbed Wire provided a detailed Ken Paxton scandal timeline.

The Dallas Observer examines the North Texas World Cup host committee's draft plan for human rights issues.

Texas Public Opinion Research investigates the real ideological landscape of the Texas Democratic Senate primary.

So, what HAVE Tex-ass Republicans accomplished in 25 years?

At the end of a piece talking about how Tex-ass Democrats might actually miss Kenny Boy Paxton as state AG, as he profiles his four would-be GOP successors, CD Hooks rhetorically asks something that a former county commissioner in my county — a Republican, no less, told me several years ago on education.

He references the nutbar level of the four in a debate sponsored by the Republican Attorney Generals Association: 

Altogether, the debate painted Texas as a weak and collapsing place under imminent threat from about two dozen outside corrupting forces—Islam, gays, New York Jews, Somalians, the Chinese. Which tends to suggest a question that didn’t get asked. If everything the candidates said is true—if the Big D is being subjugated by the crescent moon—and all these things are the product of a quarter century of continuous, uninterrupted Republican rule, what possible reason could there be for conservatives to continue voting Republican?

Indeed.