Texas Progressives talk Dan Patrick's hand-wringing and more

Off the Kuff notes Dan Patrick's electoral blues. My thoughts here.

SocraticGadfly offers his thoughts on what is (for now) Big Bend's reprieve from a physical border wall.

No border wall can stop monarchs in migration. But, per the Observer, climate change and habitat destruction can. For the uninformed, US Fish and Wildlife Service last year FINALLY, after decades of delay, proposed an Endangered Species Act listing for the monarch — but without critical habitat designation. 

Get an overview of the now-open Palo Pinto Mountains State Park. 

Yes, it's too bad the NM Lege gets nothing more than a per diem. But also yes, paying NM Legiscritters $64K a year as though they were working a serious full-time job is laughable. I hope voters there reject that in November. 

Diane Wilson has stopped her hunger strike, but is still battling Dow and other Gulf Coast polluters. 

Elmo Musk wants part of a national wildlife refuge; the exchange would also include a bit of the Palmito Battlefield National Historic Site. Sadly, the Barbed Wire, which linked to that story, was too late; comment period expired March 31.

For 53 state House Democrats, a question: Was it worth it being fined more than $8K each for your walkout last summer? Bonus question for those of you talking about not paying: Will it be worth it to have your member budget cut 30 percent next year, at least if you can't prove Dannie Goeb right? 

The State Board of Ed still wants to force public school kids to read the bible, and yeah, with background of Kelly Hancock being sued over vouchers, this is a First Amendment suit waiting to happen. 

Will pigs fly? The CCA overturned a death sentence. 

Kudos to Mississippi for telling the full truth about its state history under the 250th semiquincentennial. 

Neil at the Houston Democracy Project said in confronting Paxton & Bettencourt attacking Houston over the recently passed City of Houston/ICE ordinance, each of us must lead fight to push back.

El Paso Matters introduces us to the celebrity beaver living at Rio Bosque Wetlands Park.

The Current provides an important ShamWow Guy update.

 Levi Asher shows how campaigns can run an effective and affordable field program.

D Magazine has some notes for the pasta eaters of Highland Park.

Trump and Iran, post-talks breakdown

This is an update and expansion on updates to my piece last week, the one about Trump TACOing on his planned war crimes against Iran.

With the breakdown of talks, Trump says he will blockade Hormuz, now underway, and based that threat on a lie, the lie that Iran had "promised" to reopen it. Will this bring him into a direct collision with China? That might just be called a half-lie, given Iran's and the United States' differing interpretations of what was agreed to before the talks in Islamabad.

Claiming other states will help with the blockade is an even bigger, and fuller, lie, though. It's one that in Britain, Der Starmer has already rejected. 

And, did two US vessels already sail through, early Sunday time in Iran, per the story on the talks failing? I kind o doubt that one, too, especially since the claim comes from Trump's Zionist flunky in the media, Barak Ravid. Then there's the lie by implication that this blockade would happen immediately, when in reality, Trump admitted Sunday morning US time to Maria Bartiromo that it wasn't so. 

Later Sunday, Trump them said it wasn't the Strait, just Iranian ports that would be blockaded. Good luck with even that. 

In an April 13 piece, Mearsheimer says that not only with the blockade not work physically in the way Trump claims, but that economically, it will actually backfire.  

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Related to Mearsheimer is the nutgraf from Responsible Statecraft, which is actually the subhed:

First of all, if Washington establishmentarians like the idea, there must be something seriously wrong with it

Bingo. 

The piece also reminds us, which the normal Nat-sec Nutsacks™ like Dennis Ross, quoted, don't, that this itself illegal under international law. Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations, with his international control idea for the strait, is wanting to further violate international law. 

== 

A major part of the breakdown? Iran claims that Israel's newest strikes on Lebanon are a violation, per this AP story.  Therefore, it has closed Hormuz again. It has also said that any reopening will be under the management of its military. That said, Trump and "Glory be to Satan" Pete Hegseth claim Lebanon is not part of any cease-fire. Meanwhile, Trump and Karoline Unchristian Leavitt (she refuses to adopt her husband's surname like a good submissive married Christian woman) appear to disagree on what to think about Iran's earlier 10-point proposal.

THAT then said, Iran's Supreme National Security Council is dreaming if it thinks the US has agreed to compensate it for war damages.

So, per Mearsheimer, myself and many others, yes, Trump has his ass in a crack. But, not necessarily as deep a crack as Iran thinks. 

== 

Second, via The Dissident, negative views of Israel in the US have increased since the start of the war, per Pew Research. A big takeaway? Probably in part from the "manosphere," 57 percent of Republicans 18-49 now have negative views of Israel. 

Also via The Dissident, Daniel Levy said on Democracy Now that Trump must be made of less serious stuff than previous presidents, being dragged into this war by Netanyahu. Per Hegseth probably being behind the "glory be to god" of Trump's one Lies Social blast, how much did Bibi triangulate off him? 

Breaking off talks, and lying about nuclear weapons being the cause of the Iran war, and of the end of talks, show that Trump remains Satanyahu's sock puppet. 

== 

Will Trump go beyond a blockade, as in boots on the ground?

Not unless he's a bigger idiot than he has shown himself to be, even for himself. 

Via Jeff St. Clair's installment last week of his Friday Roaming Charges, climate change, despite being denied by Trump, may be another reason he wants an early exit from the Iran War:

And, US troops would be weighted down with much more kit than their Iranian counterparts. In addition, how would US machinery like the craptacular, sucktacular F-35 perform in these conditions?

That said, while the Pentagon may be thinking of this, would this actually sway Trump? 

== 

Also, per Jeff, how are Conservative Cafeteria Catholics in the US accepting, or rejecting, Pope Leo XIV's statements on the war to date, including, though not by name, the callout of the likes of Hegseth and also Trump's "Glory be to god"? His latest callout includes "the idolatry of the self." Gee, who is THAT about?  Yes, per the unChristian Karoline Levitt, US Catholics broke for Trump in 2024, but not by a huge margin, and I suspect he's underwater on them today.

Since then, Trump has attacked Leo, claiming he's "soft on crime" (really? other than past financial crimes, what crimes are there in the Vatican?) and also once again lying about how the war on Iran is about nuclear weapons.

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CNN says China is going to supply air defense systems to Iran. I told you who benefited from the two weeks, didn't I, in that original story? That said, Chinese Foreign Ministry spox Guo Jiakun says that's totally untrue. If they're laundered through third parties, per the next graf?

Specifically, if true, it's MANPAD shoulder-launched missiles like the one that shot down the F-15. In further shades of Afghanistan, US intelligence claims the sales will be laundered through third-party countries.

Per the Responsible Statecraft piece above? Would China really escort its own tankers with the Chinese Navy?  Boy, I'd find that hard to believe. That said, RS notes that Trump has an already-delayed meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping set for early May. Delaying it again would be a spicy Szechuan TACO. 

Is Dannie Goeb right to be worried about the state of the Tex-ass GOP?

That's of course Lite Guv Dan Patrick, that Dannie Goeb.

Yours truly's take on Goeb's lament, at the Trib? I think this is a mix of trying to low-key kneecap Kenny Boy Paxton before the primary runoff with Big John Cornyn, shaking the money trees for yet more moolah, and real worry, especially should Paxton prevail. 

First, he's speaking specifically about the Texas Huose, meaning that this is a callout to Speaker Dustin Burrows. Remember that Goeb is quick with a side-eye, followed by being quick with a shiv.

Second, this is all contingent on whether or not the loser of the Senate runoff endorses the winner.

It's not clear how much Goeb is worried about Paxton as standard-bearer should he win and Big John endorse. BUT? Per point the first, it's a side-eye to Kenny Boy should he win, with endorsement, and a shiv should he lose and not endorse.

So, pre-runoff result, it's 20 percent actual worry, 30 percent shaking the money tree and 50 percent the rest. Don't be fooled into thinking Danny Boy is that alarmist. 

That said, per Kuff with more links, don't rate that below 20 percent, either. 

The Colorado River's situation is looking dire as Compact renewal looms

Two snapshots, which I will explain in more detail, in all likelihood, over at Substack.

First, the major drought that hit the Colorado River basin from the start of the year on, if not already late last year, was massively exacerbated, in terms of snow water, by the major heat-up in March. 

As a result? The Upper Colorado is down to just 25 percent of its median normal on snowpack water equivalent. For people unfamiliar with what this means, normally, there's snow melting in the upper Rockies in May and June that's filling the river, and more importantly, the river's damned lakes behind its damned dams, above all Lake Powell behind Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Mead behind Hoover Dam.

There will be little to no such snow this year. What snow is currently left will probably not be bulked up by any major new snowfall before the end of this month. The snow still left was already heated up, as was the surrounding ground, now snow-bare, and therefore it will melt off earlier.

This is going to be problematic, especially for Powell. 

How problematic?

EVERY dam has one red-line point that even a few non-Westerners may have heard of: Dead pool, also the title of a book by James Powell about Lake Powell. That's the point where what's left of water in a damned lake is below the outlet holes in a dam. Short of drilling new holes, that means what you have is something that's in the process of becoming a big silty mud puddle, absent major new water input.

Hydroelectric dams have a second red-line point. That's called "power pool."

That's where water in a lake falls below the top of penstock openings in a dam — the penstocks that feed turbines that generate electricity. This is problematic in two ways. One is the loss of electricity itself. The second is that the penstocks must be monitored for things like cavitation, should something like a major flash flood hit the lake and its drainage area and threaten to send lots of water through air-open feedways. Cavitation is what happened to Glen Canyon Dam's emergency water feed holes in the early 1980s when it had no choice but to draw down water as rapidly as possible. Marc Reisner discussed that in "Cadillac Desert."

That leads to our second issue.

Per BuRec, the old Bureau of Reclamation itself, there's a good chance Powell hits power pool by this August, even as the current Colorado River Compact ends later this year and the squabbling over renewal is only heating up. For government bureaucrats to issue a worry this openly pessimistic is huge.

In March, before the big heat-up, BuRec said Powell might hit power pool by this December. With that heat-up, it's advanced that to August. Before the Compact expired and also, for Phoenicians of Aridzona, before the summer expires. That means no more cheap electricity for AC in 105 or 110 F heat. 

Per the story, they have two main options. First is opening the gates at Flaming Gorge Dam on the Green River, the Colorado's main tributary, as much as possible. Flaming Gorge Reservoir is in northeast Utah and backs into southwest Wyoming. Both states oppose maximum drawdown but probably have little choice. Second is cutting the release of water out of Powell to Mead to the minimum allowable.

But outside agencies say even that won't be enough:

“Those two tools taken together at those levels are not sufficient to prevent Lake Powell from going below 3,500, according to these most recent forecasts,” said Anne Castle, a senior fellow at the University of Colorado’s Getches-Wilkinson Center.

There you are. 

Also, at a water height still slightly above power pool, the story notes, damage to the dam is possible.

For more on power pool and dead pool, complete with graphics, go here. 

BuRec promises another update later this month and you'll get more from me.

Longer term? The "panic button" has always been that one of the two dams has to die, and per private entities like Glen Canyon Institute, Glen Canyon Dam has always been the preferred option in the big picture, though the option vociferously opposed in Aridzona.

Now, per BuRec, Congress has technically said no to that idea.

Because of the many significant benefits provided by Lake Powell, Congress continues to include a direct prohibition concerning any planning actions or expenditure of public funds related to consideration or actions toward draining Lake Powell. Former Reclamation Commissioner, John W. Keys III said, "Previous administrations of both political parties, as well as the U.S. Congress, have said that Glen Canyon Dam is here to stay because it is serving millions of people in the Southwestern United States. Congress, through the passage of the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992, clearly stated that the dam and reservoir have a place in the tapestry of the country." Reclamation is committed to operating Glen Canyon Dam in accordance with the Law of the River and all applicable environmental laws.

But, not all of Congress nor all of Trump's Norman Vincent Peale can get rid of this reality. 

On electric juice, about all of Glen Canyon Dam's goes to Aridzona, while Mead's generally goes to California and Nevada. That Glen Canyon juice not only runs the AC in Phoenix, but pushes Central Arizona Project water uphill from the lower Colorado to farms in southern Arizona, and cities in greater Phoenix and Tucson.

BuRec's apparent pessimism is itself a shocker. Per another story from the Salt Lake Trib, the bureau usually pulls its punches on Colorado River water supply issues. 

If you live there, like my sis and brother-in-law, really, you should be moving. Really really, you should already have moved. 

It's time to face reality, per my previous posting on the subject. 

Maybe Phoenix only gets 5 percent of its electricity from the dam, but in summer, even that eliminates any cushion.

The CAP? The larger Western Area Power Administration, including but not limited to Glen Canyon Dam, supplies 80 percent or so of its electricity. 

 

Texas Progressives

Off the Kuff has another bonkers update from Loving County. 

SocraticGadfly read Reality Winner's new memoir and was less than totally impressed while also having new questions about undiscussed portions of her childhood. 

The latest Kenny Boy Paxton scandal — his office allegedly funneled hotel room vouchers to donors. 

Other Kenny Boy news — a federal judge allowed him to un-represent acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock in a First Amendment suit over school vouchers. 

Qualified immunity wrongly strikes again, letting Starr County officials off the hook in an abortion false arrest lawsuit. 

Saving black lace cactus is nice; can't anybody involved with that stop the dirty coal lignite mining that threatens them as well? And, why can't people also devote this attention to the dunes sagebrush lizard?

Goodbye to Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza, Robin to Eric Berger's Batman, and goodbye to your love for an Ike Dike that won't do everything you claim. 

The Observer has a story about past, present and future of renewable energy in Texas, and doesn't discuss whether or not any of the anti-renewables people quoted in the story, or others, are overgrazing their land right now, or will be in the future with ongoing climate change. Just another failure from a magazine that often punches sideways. 

Neil at the Houston Democracy Project reported on Houston City Council public comment session focused on Salinas/Pollard/Kamin HPD/ICE ordinance & asked if there was any authoritarian threat at all the City of Houston would confront.

Your Local Epidemiologist breaks down the recent jury verdicts against social media companies.

Law Dork analyzes the SCOTUS hearing on birthright citizenship.

Texas Rural Reporter reminds us that a lot of important legislative work is going on right now.

The Barbed Wire talks to a nonbinary educator to check on what it's like for them in the schools now.

John Coby tells of his very positive experiences owning an electric car.

The TPA is sad to hear about the closure of the Fort Bend Star, a local publication since 1977. We wish them all well with whatever comes next.

48 hours until another round of Trump blather?

Per the Dissident Monday, following up on his Sunday piece, Trump's "48 hours or else" was his second in two weeks to Iran.

And, the "or else" didn't happen the first time. So that's why Iran didn't budge the second time.

Krugman claimed Saturday that Trump wouldn't TACO. Yeah, Paul, but he already did. Even if Hegseth was behind his "Glory be to god," Trump could still TACO.

And, as of last night, per what I could find shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern, Trump did semi-TACO at least.  

Iran? Yes, the Strait of Hormuz gets opened — but only if you pay a toll, whether to Iran or Oman. (How much Iran will crowd Oman, and related factors, remains to be seen.) 

Klipp said, a couple of hours before the deadline, that Trump was afraid. Whether that or other things, I don't know.  

The bigger picture?

China is laughing all the way to the bank, or all the way to the electric recharging station, as Trump gets ever more stupid and mendacious over Iran. Of course, like the US looking at Europe after World War II, China may not want the US economy to go TOO much into the crapper. 

It's getting so bad that even Bari Weiss' minions are worried. 

They should be. Iran shot down that F-15 US plane with a shoulder-fired missile. WHAT? Like we gave the Afghan mujahideen 40 years ago? Damn we're idiots. 

Meanwhile, the current government of Pakistan comes off looking ever more like a US flunky. 

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Update, April 8: Iran claims that Israel's newest strikes on Lebanon are a violation, per this AP story.  Therefore, it has closed Hormuz again. It has also said that any reopening will be under the management of its military. That said, Trump and "Glory be to Satan" Pete Hegseth claim Lebanon is not part of any cease-fire. Meanwhile, Trump and Karoline Unchristian Leavitt (she refuses to adopt her husband's surname like a good submissive married Christian woman) appear to disagree on what to think about Iran's earlier 10-point proposal.

THAT then said, Iran's Supreme National Security Council is dreaming if it thinks the US has agreed to compensate it for war damages.

So, per Mearsheimer, myself and many others, yes, Trump has his ass in a crack. But, not necessarily as deep a crack as Iran thinks. 

Second, via The Dissident, negative views of Israel in the US have increased since the start of the war, per Pew Research. A big takeaway? Probably in part from the "manosphere," 57 percent of Republicans 18-49 now have negative views of Israel. 

Also via The Dissident, Daniel Levy said on Democracy Now that Trump must be made of less serious stuff than previous presidents, being dragged into this war by Netanyahu. Per Hegseth probably being behind the "glory be to god" of Trump's one Lies Social blast, how much did Bibi triangulate off him? 

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Update, April 10: Via Jeff St. Clair's installment this week of his Friday Roaming Charges, climate change, despite being denied by Trump, may be another reason he wants an early exit from the Iran War:

 And, US troops would be weighted down with much more kit than their Iranian counterparts. In addition, how would US machinery like the craptacular, sucktacular F-35 perform in these conditions?

Also, per Jeff, how are Conservative Cafeteria Catholics in the US accepting, or rejecting, Pope Leo XIV's statements on the war to date? 

==

Update, April 11: CNN says China is going to supply air defense systems to Iran. I told you who benefited from the two weeks, didn't I? 

Specifically, if true, it's MANPAD shoulder-launched missiles like the one that shot down the F-15. In further shades of Afghanistan, US intelligence claims the sales will be laundered through third-party countries. 

==

Update, April 12: Trump says he will blockade Hormuz, and based that threat on a lie, the lie that Iran had "promised" to reopen it. Will this bring him into a direct collision with China? That might just be called a half-lie, given Iran's and the United States' differing interpretations of what was agreed to before the talks in Islamabad. Claiming other states will help with the blockade is an even bigger, and fuller, lie, though. And, did two US vessels already sail through, early Sunday time in Iran, per the story on the talks failing? I kind o doubt that one, too. Then there's the lie by implication that this blockade would happen immediately, when in reality, Trump admitted Sunday morning US time to Maria Bartiromo that it ain't so.