Latest poll from CBS: Abbott's kicking Beto's ass by 55-30 among independents. Now Kuff says "pre-Dobbs," but ignores that, in the run-up to that, after the Supreme Court leak, Dems and Dem-leaners said inflation was by far their No. 1 worry. I suspect that's likely still the case.
(See new polling, including the first post-Dobbs one, further down.)
Now, some parts of inflation, notably gas prices, have ameliorated recently, but there's no guarantee that's more than short-term. And, the shock of higher school lunch prices in the fall may bring that issue back before voters who are parents.
These poll results are EVEN THOUGH Abbott's approval rating is underwater right now.
If they hold up, he remains too far out for me to vote for him, despite me agreeing with him on guns. So, since I ain't voting for Green candidate Delilah Barrios, rather than hold my nose and vote Beto, this is likely an undervote as of right now.
That CBS poll up top put the overall gap at 49-41. A couple of days later, but still pre-Dobbs, a UT poll put the overall gap at 45-39. A lot of people still don't want to weigh in, there. It also puts the indy gap at 32-22 in detailed breakouts. Kuff uses that to scoff at the 55-30 above, which would be 55-40 in this case if percentages scale up. I'd just say it shows how soft the race is among indys. Related to the CBS poll? Although UT didn't have a breakout on the gov's race, by their stances on guns and abortion, "independents" in Texas tilt closer to Republicans than Democrats. Kuff can say that this is closer than Shrub's margin of victory over Miss Ann in 1994. BUT? Per Wiki, Bush had a solid if slim lead on Richards well before the election. Remember that in 1990, she got lucky enough to dray Clayton Williams of "lay back and enjoy it" comments. Even with that, she won with only a plurality not a majority. So the tea leaves that Kuff is trying to smoke after reading them don't support his librul thoughts and prayers interpretations.
To be fair, after I had written this in advance, I noticed an hour or two after it posted that Kuff linked to a new Trib piece (with his usual violation of fair-use quoting) there are other factors. At the same time, Bob on a Knob points to GOP-leaning pollster Quinnipiac, that shows him having a 15-point gap in December and now closing it to 5. My only guess at that? GOP support on Abbott's right is still soft post-primary. He'll probably be increasing border stunts and things like that. How much hay Beto can make? Don't know. At the same time, BK ignores that national polling this spring, right after the leak, said that Dobbs did NOT top Dems' and Dem-leaners' concerns. Besides hoping inflation goes back down, at the Texas level, if the continuing long, hot summer leads to power surges and flickers or even brownouts, he's got the ERCOT angle in play.
(Update: We now have our first post-Dobbs poll. And? The gap is 49-44, or one percentage point closer than UT. Also of note? Beto-Bob leads by only 9 points among Hispanics. Libertarian Mark Tibbetts gets 2 percent support, while Green Delilah Barrios isn't on the polling radar screen. Re the "Big Two," Abbott's support among Republicans is slightly softer than O'Rourke's among Dems. And, interestingly, Abbott's favorability rating is above water. Beto's is negative.
Update 2: From March-June, Beto-Bob has outraised Strangeabbott. He appears to have more small-dollar donors. That said, reading through RF's silence on one issue, Abbott appears to have more Texas donors.)
And, visit the poll at right!
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