No 'Twitter revolution' in Iran

As Foreign Policy notes, starting with the fact of the hashtag "#iranrevolution" being in English, not Farsi, Twitter had almost no impact inside Iran during last year's post-election tumult.

A number of opposition activists have told me they used text messages, email, and blog posts to publicize protest actions. However, good old-fashioned word of mouth was by far the most influential medium used to shape the postelection opposition activity. There is still a lively discussion happening on Facebook about how the activists spread information, but Twitter was definitely not a major communications tool for activists on the ground in Iran.

Beyond that, the idea that there was a "Twitter revolution" sounds more like Western blogger/online guru vanity than anything else.

Hashtag this as #socialmediafail. (And not the first.)

Mousavi forms new ‘popular front’ political movement

Up until recently, over the last few weeks, defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mir Mousavi has been pretty quiet.

No longer. He has formed a new political movement, “The Green Path of Hope.” What the story doesn’t mention, though, is what has me most curious – will this light a fire under Grand Ayatollah Akbar Rafsanjani to do more in opposition to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, or not?

Former Iran lawmakers want to investigate Khamenei

This is big news. A group of reform-minded former Iranian lawmakers want to “investigate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei over the aftermath of the country’s June 12 presidential election, including allegations arrested dissidents have been tortured.

Showing how serious they are, their letter calling for the investigation calls Kahrizak prison worse than Abu Ghraib.

Their letter has been addressed to Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who heads the Assembly of Experts, but it’s unlikely he could ramrod such an action through there.
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But WHICH dictator do Iranians want dead?

Iranian protestors are now chanting “Death to the Dictator” – but, which one?

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, inaugurated for his second term just a day ago? Or Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei?

Khamenei ‘formally endorses’ Ahmadinejad

Actually, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, formally endorsed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad two months ago, before he was even re-elected, which is what makes this ceremony today such a farce. That, in turn, is why the event was boycotted by was boycotted by two former presidents — Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, and many prominent clerics.

Plus, it looks like Khamenei and Ahmadinejad aren’t quite as chummy as they were four years ago.

Iran police forbid official mourning of Neda

In the beginning of protests against Iran’s June election results, knowledgeable pundits warned that Iran’s political establishment needed to avoid making martyrs, because of seven-day and 40-day post-death memorials, the latter being especially potent in Shi’ite Islam.

Well, that’s if such memorials happen. The Iranian government forbade a public 40-day memorial for Neda, and brutally dispersed an unofficial one.

Meanwhile, the police reportedly found an underground network of contacts for outside media and shut it down. But, Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, looking back to 1979, said that won’t be enough to stop the movement.

Mousavi – Iran election protests to continue

He’s asking authorities to permit a Thursday gathering; fat chance of that.

Mousavi doesn’t say what he will do, or what the next step is, if the permit is denied. He does say detentions can’t stop the protests.

Oh, let’s hope all levels of federal courts reject the immunity deal then-Senator Obama supported, so we can put Hayden on a witness stand.

Ahmadinejad caves to Khamenei on Veep

After a week of insisting he was his own man, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad showed who runs the country when he caved to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's demands and dumped his first vice president choice, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai. So, there will be no appeal to moderates.

Intra-clerical tussle heats up in Iran

Ayatollah Ayman Khatami, no relation to the country’s former president, warned more reformist clerics over what he called plots to weaken the standing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Khatami’s comments seemed timed for this week’s Friday prayers, given Grand Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s speech last Friday.

Meanwhile, in an interesting change, a majority of Assembly of Experts, chaired by Rafsanjani, called on him to support Khamenei.

Khameneni nixes Ahmadinejad on Veep choice

Earlier this week, I wondered if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s naming Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, a definitely more moderate type, as his first vice president, wasn’t an appeal to moderates.

Well, wonder no more. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, showing who, at this point, still actually runs the country, has vetoed the choice. But, at about the same time, Ahmadinejad said he stood behind Mashai. Stay tuned.

‘People revolution’ – Rafsanjani translated

Based on reaction inside Tehran, it seems Grand Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani spoke elliptically enough, but not too elliptically, at Friday prayers.

Roger Cohen reflects on Iran power struggles

Calling the June election and aftermath a “joke … too foul to stand,” Cohen indicates this is a struggle that is going to continue, driven by a “pathology” in President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Iran election – Khamenei fires warning shot at Rafsanjani

With warnings to an unnamed “elite” that surely includes Grand Ayatollah Akbar Rafsanjani, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told that elite to stop protesting presidential election results.

Upping the ante back on Sunday, former President Mohammad Khatami called for a referendum on whether the government of allegedly re-elected President Mahmoud Ahmadinejadis legitimate, along with asking for a neutral body to oversee the vote

Iran Veep nomination bid for moderates?

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s nomiation for his first vice president at first looks like classic nepotism — his son’s father-in-law. I assume that makes him the old man’s brother-in-law.

But, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai has in the past said Iranians are Israel’s friends, and in both Turkey and Iranian capital Tehran, attended Muslim religious events where women were involved.

I can’t see the nomination as anything else but a blatant play for more moderate supporters.

Rafsanjani speech, his tactics, Iran resistance

With Iranian police engaging in “preventative detention” arrests even before Grand Ayatollah Akbar Rafsanjani’s speech at noon prayers Friday in Tehran, future installations of trouble were guaranteed. But, given that papers like the LA Times got anonymous Iranians to contribute to their stories, in addition to what Rafsanjani actually said to challenge the government, guarantees that the resistance will continue.

At the same time, I’d like to hear more on any guess as to Rafsanjani’s angle. Sure, he’d like to replace Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Sure, that’s obvious enough that many backers of presidential challenger Mir Mousavi don’t trust him.

But, in particular, with his calls for mediation by the Assembly of Experts, on the tactical level, what game is he running right now?

Rafsanjani walks fine line but rebukes Iran govt

Grand Ayatollah Akbar Rafsanjani, without directly questioning the June Iran election results, nonetheless called those results a “crisis,” while also publicly criticizing the Guardian Council backstopping Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He then said he had discussed a possible solution with members of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts; he heads both.

However, as I’ve blogged ever since the “official” election results were announced, Rafsanjani is an opportunist. And, as the LA Times notes, many Mousavi backers agree.

More detailed information when available.

Rafsanjani to lead Iran Friday prayers

Grand Ayatollah Akbar Rafsanjani, spiritual patron of Iranian presidential candidate Mir Mousavi will lead Friday prayers at Tehran University.

Add in the fact that Mousavi will attend.

Boy, you talk about a situation with potential for about anything to happen.

Meanwhile, just because you don’t hear about resistance to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doesn’t mean it isn’t happening:

Passive resistance includes trying to crash the electricity grid by turning on home appliances at appointed times and creating power surges, or stuffing newspapers into Islamic charity boxes reputed to contribute to the upkeep of ideological militias involved in suppressing the protests.

Meanwhile, as the Wall Street Journal notes and I have blogged before, who knows what “the cynical operator” Rafsanjani will even say? He’s not going to do anything overt or stupid, but a crowd looking to parse every subtle inflection could get ideas.

New Iran election protest springs from nowhere

Or so it would seem, on today’s Tehran protest. I think this shows several things.

1. Via Twitter and other electronic means, plus some old-fashioned legwork, protestors have become even more organized than they were a couple of weeks ago.
2. With even older people protesting, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Basijis have not been able to impose total fear.
3. The protest is spontaneous enough to indicate neither opposition presidential candidate Mir Mousavi nor Grand Ayatollah Rafsanjani is controlling it.
4. It’s still relatively peaceful, but unafraid to fight back.

And, those points all have to be of concern to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad.

Hitchens – latest apologia pro Iraq

Christopher Hitchens is never going to apologize for his drunken boo-hooing for Kurds and his blanket support for invading Iraq.

His latest off-the-wall claim? Invading Iraq was the catalyst for Iran’s new reform push.

Oh, that’s a goodie. Not true, but a goodie.

Roger Cohen bids farewell to Iran

One of the last American journalists to acquiesce after most Western media got the boot from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Roger Cohen pens a moving, detached farewell to his home for the past several years.