Top blogging for November

Older posts had the lead in most viewed stories for November, some signal-boosted by me, others not.

An old blog post, from the end of Shrub Bush's first term, my blogging about the Dallas Snooze's take on how Shrub could reinvigorate his Cabinet, has been trending for a full month or so and I have no idea why. It doesn't even have a potential Chinese bot launch-triggering comment. (BTW, if you want an example of how stupid the Snooze was then — and pretty much still is now — on its op-ed page, just click that link. It's a short read.)

No. 2 was signal-boosted and is an September post about coronavirus "vaccine losers," namely, we the people of the US not having a non-mRNA booster, among other things, and why people with bigger popguns than me on Twitter weren't talking about that. It got signal-boosted in part because of a quote-tweet back-and-forth with Dr. Peter Hotez, who talked about what his institute is doing globally with non-mRNA vaxxes, but who went radio-silent when I said globally isn't Merikkka.

No. 3? Fresh stuff. My Texas elections post-mortem (for both Democrats and Greens). Related? No. 9, my take that the Texas Green Party, like I said two years ago about the national party, is past its best-by date.

No. 4 was also election-related, but on a national level. That's my call-out of the New York Slimes for attempting to revive Russiagate just in time for midterms.

And, No. 5? Also election related, and also a post-mortem, this time for one Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke, whom I said, in a visual typographic pun, should be called "Beat-0" for his lack of election prowess the last three cycles.

No. 6 was related. After Greg Summerlin appeared to be trying to make Beat-0 into some wild-eyed radical, I summarized his comments, and expanded on my responses, in a separate post calling out his ConservaDem-ness. And, I may not be done yet.

No. 7 was a Texas Progressives non-election roundup, during election week. Not sure what triggered its popularity, whether it was the part about pro-lifer grifting, Xi Jinping supposedly getting ready to meat MBS or something else.

No. 8? Again, election related. This was my take on Axios undermining its credibility over conflating QAnon with all conspiracy theories, then conflating conspiracy theories with the possibility of an actual conspiracy (while using that word loosely) followed by other thought.

No. 10? My take on the XBB coronavirus subvariant. (Background: I think we're at least moving toward endemic, and that big popguns folks like Walker Bragman have one foot, at least, in tribalism on this issue.)

Can we call Beto "Beat-O"? Or for the pun, "Beat-0"?

Depending on your font, the typographic pun in the header, in the second set of scare quotes to be precise, may not be clear, but it's a reference to the number of races Robert Francis O'Rourke has won in the last three elections.

I mean, the man lost badly to Strangeabbott last night. In fact, he basically lost as badly as Loopy Lupe Valdez did in 2018. And, hyes, she WAS Loopy, in the Dem primary, repeatedly, despite Brains' wrong assumptions about my nickname, and in the general (where she brought bad baggage that was indirectly self-inflicted and others that was fully self-inflicted).

I start by again blaming Beat-0 as a bad campaign strategerist. He only made it worse, for my money, when he decided that, as long as he was chasing wingnuts in Muleshoe, he'd go full Pander Bear.

Meanwhile, will this serve as a wake-up to Gilberto Hinojosa and the rest of the majordomos within the Texas Democratic Party that the non-voters are not secret Dems? Probably not; it's been not quite a decade since I blogged about their ethnic assumptions on "demographics as destiny" and that was already old news then.

Beat-0 couldn't even win Uvalde County.

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For the still-clueless among Texas Dems? Nationally, it looks like Dems will lose less than 30 House seats; maybe less than 25, and just possibly only about a flat 20. A good example next door? A Dem challenger had battled Yvette Herrell to a draw in NM CD-2, largely the southern, GOP-leaning part of the state, tho made more Dem-friendly in redistricting.

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Kuff tries to spin Beat-0's results. (And fails.) Kuff says: "Look, Beat-0 did incredibly better than Wendy Davis!" And somewhat better than Loopy Lupe. "And the best of any Dem since Miss Ann!" In reality, the margin of loss by Beat-0, Loopy Lupe and Bill White, if we put it in terms of polls, would fall outside the margin of error.

Thoughts on this year's races as early voting starts

This will incorporate reflections on the polls at right, and also build on my "Gadfly slate" of last Friday.

First, here in Tex-ass, statewide offices.

I'm not yet ready to say Strangeabbott's odds against Beto-Bob are in above 80 percent, but they are at 70-79 percent. And, barring Kenny Boy Paxton busted for fucking the wife of a Republican official, if Strangeabbott wins, so does every other statewide Rethuglican. Jeebus Shot Sid Miller wins. Wayne "Oil Wells Are" Christian wins. Kenny Boy wins. So do others.

The Lege? I'm not analyzing 150 House races, or even 31 Senate races. Let's say the GOP gains two in the House and holds serve in the Senate. Dade Phelan holds on as Speaker.

Nationally? New inflation concerns, thanks to the latest OPEC cuts, plus tight diesel stocks, have slackened the sails of earlier Democratic tailwinds, as Jeet Heer notes at The Nation, with me discussing in more detail here. So, I've revised downward thoughts I had just a week ago.

And, I mentioned "denialism" in Nancy Pelosi's take on the inflation issue. Susan Glasser at New Yorker applies that word to Warmonger Joe's take on the whole election.

The Senate, I think, odds are about 50 percent it stays 50-50. I had originally had this at a bit above 50-50 that Dems hold serve or improve.

The House poll was the first one I started, when inflation was really bad. Wingnut nominees on the GOP side stand better chances in the House than the Senate. Inflation dipped, but now, gas prices have crept back up. I don't think Dems will lose 50, but, losing 40 wouldn't surprise me.

This could well make Kevin McCarthy as Speaker a slightly loonier, yet ultimately as wingnut-squared-challenged, as Boozing Boehner or Eddie Muenster Ryan. With that big of a majority, the Lauren Boeberts (if re-elected) and Marjorie Taylor Greenes will run wild and might not even be the worst.

Of course, that would relieve Nancy Pelosi of the onus of considering violating her pledge to step down as Speaker. It would also relieve AOC of the onus of having to vote against her, if she did that, in an even tighter House.

Abbott expands lead on Beto-Bob and why? "It's the economy, stupid"

Well, that's not the only reason, but that's a good starting point for why Greg Abbott, aka Strangeabbott, is up 11 points among likely voters in the Texas gov's race vs. Beto O'Rourke, aka Beto-Bob. (Per my "Gadfly slate" post Friday, this confirms that I'm likely to undervote this race. O'Rourke isn't going to win, and he's been a panderer deluxe on the campaign trail; as for options to him, I'm not voting for Second Amendment absolutist Delilah Barrios, even if she is a green. (Hold that thought; I'll have more on the Texas Green Party after the election.)

It may not be fair, per details of the polling, that the environment is the only thing voters trust Beto-Bob on more than Strangeabbott. But, there it is. And, the 50-50 split among Hispanic voters show that, whether it's a real concern or one inflated by Strangeabbott, Hispanics are concerned about immigration, even if Operation Lone Star really isn't doing much.

A 55 percent majority even supports Strange's busing of Ill Eagles out of state.

As for the header? "The state economy" was the second-largest concern among all likely voters, even though it didn't crack the top four among Democrats. Really? In denialism for the sake of a poll, like Passive Pelosi™ trying to pretend inflation doesn't exist (which also comes off as a bit New Agey, and contra Aaron Rodgers, "manifestation" doesn't exist), and Inflationmonger Joe of the frantic SPR releases?

Between various grocery stores last Saturday, I noticed that staples like brown rice are up again. "It's the economy stupid, and it's personal." It's not fair for state politicians to be judged on a national issue they can't control — setting aside the issue of how much or how little presidents can control the economy, and how much or how little they can control specific situations related to the economy. But, it is what it is; and, for both likely voters at the state level, and their candidates, to practice denialism? (That said, Strange hasn't said anything about the economy, but he doesn't need to.)

A 55 percent majority also favors stricter gun control laws, but Beto-Bob the Panderer, or Bob on a Knob, as I've called him before, has backed off that in places like Muleshoe. I mean, four years ago, Loopy Lupe Valdez was clueless. O'Rourke doesn't even have that excuse. Per my hammering O'Rourke as a bad strategerist? Abbott has an 11 point lead in the suburbs. I mentioned more of him needing to visit exurbs rather than suburbs per se, but the general idea applies.

Last note: 1 percent of Dems support Barrios; 0 percent of Rethugs support Libertarian candidate Mark Tippetts. That says something right there, doesn't it? 

Meanwhile, one lady I responded to, on Bud Kennedy's tweeting of the poll, brought out the state-level version of a "Vote for Stein is a vote for Trump." I reminded her (or informed her if she didn't know) that both duopoly parties have engaged in third-party vote suppression, as well as that a vote for somebody is a vote for somebody.

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Update: There's a new poll claiming Beto-Bob has made the race a statistical dead head. I am skeptical.

Is Beto-Bob going to catch up?

Beto-Bob has slightly more money than Strangeabbott. But, he's only very slightly narrowed the polls and remains well outside the margin of error.

Add in that his "let's go to Muleshoe" lunacy means that he's spent weeks, nay months, squandering time, energy, money and, above all, focus.

Winning?

I doubt it. Strange is right that the polls have essentially flatlined. As prognosticators said months ago, abortion isn't a big needle-mover. And, while he's running for gov, not Congress, inflation is a negative needle-mover against Beto-Bob.

And, he didn't make even more hay on electric bills during summer power warnings by ERCOT. He should have been visiting the fast-growing exurbs of our major metros, not Muleshoe, in July and August.

Agree? Disagree? Hit the polls at right.

Texas Progressives: Guns and Visa, Beto-Bob, more

Elizabeth Warren asked for it, then got called out as "fascist" for the request, but Visa will start tracking gun sales as a particular category. It should make it easier to track down suspicious sales, which was her whole intent. And, since Visa is the biggest, let us hope, per the story, that it indeed pressures MasterCard and Amex to follow.

We'll also see if Second Amendment absolutist Delilah Barrios, running for gov for the Green Party, says anything about this.

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Off the Kuff analyzes the latest poll of Texas and Harris County. (Note: See my gov, House and Senate polls at right.)

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SocraticGadfly said Beto O'Rourke needs to fire himself as chief campaign strategist.

Related, from Twitter:

Coming next: Greg Abbott uses the Uvalde Park shooting as an excuse to send yet more DPS, Texas National Guard, etc., to the board.
Coming next after that: Pander Bear Beto O'Rourke says he'd send more people to the border, too, but only if they volunteer. https://t.co/UvVczG4gKU

— TheRealSocraticGadfly (@real_gadfly) September 9, 2022

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I have no idea who Coulda Been Worse is run by. Let's just hope that any new anti-Abbott ads don't engage in child exploitation, unlike Moms Against Greg Abbott. Their first ad is here on Twitter, via Patrick Switek. Not bad, but not great in presentation. The "Coulda Been Worse" needs to be cut in more than just once at the end. A second voice in voiceover, preferably female, should be there.

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DPS head Steve McCraw told CNN he'd resign if it was found that his troopers had any culpability in a delayed response to the Uvalde shooting. He's bullshitting, of course, starting with that he'd set his own parameters on "any culpability."

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Shock me that two North Texas small-town police chiefs belong(ed?) to Oath Keepers. Of course, they, like others statewide and compadres nationally, have spouted the usual bullshit lines like, "I didn't know who they were," or "they changed their mission" or "someone else signed me up."

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Gohmert Pyle reached a new low even for him.

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Per this Tweet:

Glenn Hegar remains full of posturing gasbag shit vis-a-vis Harris County https://t.co/QfdPSNTjTd even after a Travis County district judge TOLD .@Glenn_Hegar he's full of shit. https://t.co/qvVDG01Zov

— TheRealSocraticGadfly (@real_gadfly) September 9, 2022

Glenn Hegar reached a new low, even for him.

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Danny Goeb is in a pissing match, per his news releases, with the authors of a Texas Monthly semi-gotcha piece that's nonetheless good gotcha. Knowing something about Russell Gold and Dan Soloman's writing for the Monthly (and elsewhere from Gold), I was worried Patrick may be at least half right. I shouldn't have been. An updated version of the article notes Patrick's claims, and does further gotcha on the date of passage of SB 13 vs the date of his BlackRock divestiture. Plus, like Ralph Nader (who I didn't vote for in 2000 cuz I knew this, probably due to Al Gore oppo research) and Jill Stein (who I learned about too late in 2016 cuz Hillary Clinton oppo research forgot to allow for early voting) Patrick and his wife also owned Black Rock mutual funds. (Nader and Stein owned oil and gas, defense and tobacco stocks via mutual funds.)

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MANNUUUUU.

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A restart on the Iran nuclear deal looks to be officially on the rocks. That's from the German Foreign Ministry.

Texas 2036 warns that the water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi, could happen here.

The Texas Living Waters Project released a study showing how much water we lose in this state due to old infrastructure. Texas Monthly gives a fond final farewell to Paul Burka.

The Texas Signal reports on the first day of school in Uvalde.

The TSTA Blog argues that it's the disrespect for democracy that disqualifies so many Texas Republicans from holding office.

The Dallas Observer notes the Cards Against Humanity protest against anti-abortion laws.

Federal coronavirus bailout money for cities and counties went to ... cops and courts.

Beto bullshit on teacher pay, and Beto the Pander Bear

As the Chronic chronicled last week, among part of Beto-Bob O'Rourke's attempt to get rural Texas votes is straight-up economic pandering.

No shit, sherlock, on the idea that Muleshoe teachers get $16,000 below national average. And? They don't live in New York City, or even in Dallas. Going by cost of living differences, a Muleshoe teacher should make almost $15K less than one in Dallas, if we took the full $15K in difference and applied it to teacher salaries. Even at 50 cents on the dollar, that's still $7.5K. (And, City-Data says that Dallas' cost of living is below the national average, in case you wonder.) The typical Muleshoe teacher knows that $35,000 there, after 7-10 years of teaching, is a shitload of money, relatively speaking — unless they want to go out in the oil patch.

I've called out media bullshit on teacher pay before; this is Beto bullshit.

It's bullshit for other reasons, too. Probably, the majority of teachers there are from that area. They WANT to be there. They're the part of the typical High Plains / Panhandle town that didn't leave. (Muleshoe itself is actually growing in population, largely due to "Uncle Earl" that R.F. now says he cares so much about.) Unlike a teacher in the Metromess, Helltown, the Big A, or maybe even a Waco or Tyler, the typical Muleshoe teacher also, in addition to knowing 35 large is good money there, has not a single activist bone in them, whether about what books are or are not in the city or school district library or other things.

Between this and his backpedaling on other issues from his 2020 prez run, we're clearly in Just.Another.Politician.™ territory. I'm still almost certainly not voting for Green candidate Delilah Barrios, so, that means I'm moving closer to the likelihood of undervoting.

And, since the Dems' Lite Guv candidate, retread Mike Collier, is even more of a Pander Bear to Rethugs than Beto is, forget about that.

Beto has also gone back to being a Pander Bear himself on oil. The facts on the ground, in reality, are that major operators are automating, automating, automating, and increasing the gap between themselves and independents on low overhead. This has nothing to do with renewable electricity, or with lies vs truth on "drill, baby, drill" Joe Biden or other things.

As for climate change backpedaling on the weak-tea Green New Deal that Democraps ripped off from Greens? The latest drought this year, even as Panhandle Texans continue to further deplete the Ogallala, is all real, Beto. But, if you want to be a Pander Bear?

Beto-Bob needs to fire himself as a campaign strategerist

No, seriously, Shrub Bush reference and all.

Why is Beto-Bob doubling down on his 2018 strategery (sic) of chasing diminishing numbers of overall overall voters in hardcore rural red-dom? Especially on the issue of gunz, actual political strategists know that suburban (and exurban, like say Sherman outside the Metromess 60 miles) "soccer moms" are where the political action is at.

It didn't work then, as, legend aside, Beto didn't do significantly better in any 2018 Texas statewide election than any other Dem candidate with the "memorable" exception of Loopy Lupe Valdez.

This:

O’Rourke lost to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz statewide by 3 percentage points, but the margin was 51 points in counties with fewer than 50,000 people — virtually the same deficit Hillary Clinton had against Donald Trump in those counties two years earlier.

Sums up the problem. It's a waste of money, and even more, in a state the size of Texas, now that we're past the Labor Day traditional start of the political home stretch, it's a waste of time.

Beto should be in the Shermans, the Weatherfords, the Conroes, the New Branfelses, the Sulphur Springses or even more, the Greenvilles, and maybe, say, the Fredericksburgs of the world. Per the photo in the story, stopping in an Abilene is fine. Per the text? Places like Quanah and Junction are not. Per a political analyst quoted in the piece? 

“O’Rourke’s commitment to campaigning in rural Texas is a reflection of the fact that Democrats can’t rely simply on urban and suburban voters and expect to win statewide elections in Texas,” said Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. “And they definitely can’t expect to do this while they continue to lose rural Texas by margins of 3-to-1.”

I simply disagree, per what I just said. Finding new voters in the cities I mentioned, along with doubling down on GOTV in strongholds, are a better strategery. In suburban and exurban areas, that also includes targeting the Californicators and other recent transplants. And, if they have kids, state school funding as well as gunz is low-hanging fruit.

Also, having met and interviewed Bill Brannon before, I'd not put heavy weight on his thoughts, either.

Plus, as the Chronic chronicled yesterday, at least some of the time, what's happening to Beto-Bob is he's getting his ass handed to him by raucous crowds in these places, even as he tries to very publicly backpedal from or soft-soap some of his more voluble statements from campaigns past, mainly the aborted (I see what I did there) 2020 presidential run. (This place? Muleshoe, where he shouldn't be.)

Meanwhile, at the Observer, Justin Miller interviews R.F. O'Rourke. Beto-Bob talks abortion even though post-Dobbs polling (limited so far) shows it's not a dial-mover. Miller also reminds me that, with Beto-Bob's spread-out campaign, contra Blank et al, you can't repeat a local focus once every three weeks. You can't visit Conroe in mid-August, then early September, then end of September, etc. As preachers and the like know, repetition is key to selling a message.

Oh, hit the polls at right.

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Update, Oct. 22: Per my hammering O'Rourke as a bad strategerist? Abbott has an 11 point lead in the suburbs, per the latest UT poll of likely voters. I mentioned more of him needing to visit exurbs rather than suburbs per se, but the general idea applies.

Texas gov: Abbott whipping — or trimming — Beto among independents

Latest poll from CBS: Abbott's kicking Beto's ass by 55-30 among independents. Now Kuff says "pre-Dobbs," but ignores that, in the run-up to that, after the Supreme Court leak, Dems and Dem-leaners said inflation was by far their No. 1 worry.  I suspect that's likely still the case.

 

(See new polling, including the first post-Dobbs one, further down.)

Now, some parts of inflation, notably gas prices, have ameliorated recently, but there's no guarantee that's more than short-term. And, the shock of higher school lunch prices in the fall may bring that issue back before voters who are parents.

These poll results are EVEN THOUGH Abbott's approval rating is underwater right now.

If they hold up, he remains too far out for me to vote for him, despite me agreeing with him on guns. So, since I ain't voting for Green candidate Delilah Barrios, rather than hold my nose and vote Beto, this is likely an undervote as of right now.

That CBS poll up top put the overall gap at 49-41. A couple of days later, but still pre-Dobbs, a UT poll put the overall gap at 45-39. A lot of people still don't want to weigh in, there. It also puts the indy gap at 32-22 in detailed breakouts. Kuff uses that to scoff at the 55-30 above, which would be 55-40 in this case if percentages scale up. I'd just say it shows how soft the race is among indys. Related to the CBS poll? Although UT didn't have a breakout on the gov's race, by their stances on guns and abortion, "independents" in Texas tilt closer to Republicans than Democrats. Kuff can say that this is closer than Shrub's margin of victory over Miss Ann in 1994. BUT? Per Wiki, Bush had a solid if slim lead on Richards well before the election. Remember that in 1990, she got lucky enough to dray Clayton Williams of "lay back and enjoy it" comments. Even with that, she won with only a plurality not a majority. So the tea leaves that Kuff is trying to smoke after reading them don't support his librul thoughts and prayers interpretations.

To be fair, after I had written this in advance, I noticed an hour or two after it posted that Kuff linked to a new Trib piece (with his usual violation of fair-use quoting) there are other factors. At the same time, Bob on a Knob points to GOP-leaning pollster Quinnipiac, that shows him having a 15-point gap in December and now closing it to 5. My only guess at that? GOP support on Abbott's right is still soft post-primary. He'll probably be increasing border stunts and things like that. How much hay Beto can make? Don't know. At the same time, BK ignores that national polling this spring, right after the leak, said that Dobbs did NOT top Dems' and Dem-leaners' concerns. Besides hoping inflation goes back down, at the Texas level, if the continuing long, hot summer leads to power surges and flickers or even brownouts, he's got the ERCOT angle in play.

 

(Update: We now have our first post-Dobbs poll. And? The gap is 49-44, or one percentage point closer than UT. Also of note? Beto-Bob leads by only 9 points among Hispanics. Libertarian Mark Tibbetts gets 2 percent support, while Green Delilah Barrios isn't on the polling radar screen. Re the "Big Two," Abbott's support among Republicans is slightly softer than O'Rourke's among Dems. And, interestingly, Abbott's favorability rating is above water. Beto's is negative.

 

Update 2: From March-June, Beto-Bob has outraised Strangeabbott. He appears to have more small-dollar donors. That said, reading through RF's silence on one issue, Abbott appears to have more Texas donors.)

And, visit the poll at right!

In the Army ... and in the union!

Cue up that old Village People song, even though it's about "In the Navy."

The Justice Department last month greenlighted the right of national guard troops to unionize while on state duty, saying that, during that time, they're state employees, not members of the military. Strangely, Strangeabbott has been silent about this, even though the Texas National Guard has been a leader in this push because of Strangeabbott keeping them called up on long terms for Operation Lone Star, then kicking them in the nads in various ways.

The first meeting of the Texas State Employees Union’s Military Caucus is set for this week.

Update: They have met, are officially organized as part of the Texas State Employees Union and met as the Texas State Employees Union's Military Caucus. Since the meeting, the Texas Military Department has moderately addressed two of the concerns Guardsmen had. 

And Military News profiles Hunter Schuler, the man behind the unionization drive. Also, per this piece, while TMD may have moderately addressed a couple of Guardsmen concerns, it has at the same time gone into anti-union demagoguery and more, all surely at the beck and call of Strangeabbott.

Question: Where's R.F. O'Rourke, aka Beto-Bob, on this? As of a day or two ago, I saw nothing on his Twitter feed after direct questioning about his stance. Per that update, it's clear that many Guardsmen think they're being used as political pawns. Open, outright and vocal support of their unionization would seem to be a no-brainer. That said, per the Military News link, at least in the past, Democrats haven't looked on military unionization much more favorably than Republicans.

I call bullshit on Blue Anon Texas freeze & snowpocalypse claims

(Sidebar: It's certainly possible that not all the "gotcha" was from Blue Anon Democrats, or from Democrats, period.)

First, without posting or embedding any Tweets, already Wednesday, I was seeing Tweets of totally empty shelves. Bullshit!

I live up on the Red, where, in the eastern half of Texas, this baby hit the hardest. My Tom Thumb had lines a-plenty at 2 p.m. Wednedsay, and shelves were thin in some places, but none of them were empty. NONE. I walked to my Walmart at 7 p.m. yesterday, and no empty shelves. NONE.

It's just as much bullshit as when the MAGAts were Tweeting #EmptyShelvesBiden a month ago, and after the initial run on toilet paper in the early days of COVID, or in response to the Trump Train a month ago, #BlueAnon was tweeting #EmptyShelvesTrump.

Political Twitter is more and more a puerile cesspool that would be even more damaging than Hucksterman's Meta-Fuckbook if it were the same size.

Second, I am embedding a Tweet to call bullshit on its author, Nick Wagner.

Toured a San Antonio power station today ahead of a forecasted freeze. Media was shown two methods of winterization at the Braunig plant, including temporary enclosures which appeared to be secured with duct tape and heated by a portable heater. #ERCOT #TexasFreeze pic.twitter.com/S6B4gWgVdl

— Nick Wagner (@WagsPhoto) February 3, 2022

The bullshit, which is shown more in a thread of which that is just one post?

I quote-tweeted, and linked to the San Antonio Report story for which he shot the photos. Lindsay Carnett's story did NOT go down the "Gotcha Abbott" angle. It noted more clearly that the weatherization was NOT limited to temporary enclosures and was not even limited to the power plant per se. It also noted that some of the weatherization was summerization, not winterization. (She didn't note, which I did in the quote Tweet, that ERCOT is supposed to set summerization standards this spring.)

As for the temporary part? People who live up north note that this is just fine for a short-term need. And, it's San Antonio, not the Red. As I also said in my quote Tweet, overnight lows there were predicted to stay well above 20 last night, and are again tonight.

Third? Blue Anon of course invoked the name of Robert Francis O'Rourke, aka Beto, when talking about Strangeabbott, power supply and of course the Railroad Commission.

They ignored, or are ignorant of, even though the Trib wrote about it, as did Splinter Mag working off David Sirota, that, as a Congresscritter, a 2018 Senate candidate and a 2020 Prez candidate, that Beto took himself some oil and gas money, too, including from execs, not just rank and file.

And, folks, things like this are why I remain ... not a Democrat!

Abbott's "the lights stay on" promise to get its biggest test yet (updated)

#WinterStormAbbott as I have hashtagged it on Twitter, is headed to Tex-ass with the coldest weather since the killer Winter Storm Uri a year ago. 

Per Weather Underground, here's what things were predicted to be like in the Texoma area as of last night, when I was writing this:

First, and thank doorknobs, that's a reduction in the initial snow forecast; 24 hours earlier, nearly 8 inches was predicted.

Second, I am already anticipating the wingnuts showing how this means global warming and the larger climate change are both unreal.

It of course does no such thing.

If anything, since we're supposed to, overall, have warmer than average winter this year with the La Niña influence, the repeated irruptions of polar vortexes show just how true it is that climate change is real.

Third, per the header, is Abbott's promise. It's interesting he went on teevee to say that rather than talking to print media, or doing a presser for everybody. But Peter Lake of ERCOT then did a presser and it was Strangeabbott's idea.

Then, there's this surcharge on our electric bills, which R.F. O'Rourke has been hammering as the "Abbott tax."

So, how severe will the challenge be? With a chance of snow and two nights of overnight lows in the teens as far south as Waco? Two lows of a flat 20 with ice down in Austin? Abbott's probably got his fingers crossed. (South of Austin, and definitely on the Gulf coast, it looks like the weather will be inconveniencing, but not more than that.)

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Update, 6 p.m. Monday: Strangeabbott is going to get lucky, it looks like. The storm's power is going to diminish, or coming in more from the west will weaken it or whatever. Temps in Austin stay above 20 with room to spare, and ice out of the forecast. Temps above 15 the full time in Waco, and "wintry mix" but not bad. Ditto for the Metromess.

Up here on the Red? Temperatures warmer ... no single digit problems. BUT? That ice predicted for Austin 24 hours ago? Now it's ours. The amount of precipitation continues to lessen, though.

Update, noon Tuesday: The Weather Service is still predicting single-digit lows Thursday. I'm not buying it. But, even it says winter storm "watch" not "warning" as of this time. That said, it's in more agreement with WU further south in Tex-ass.

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Sidebar: Sadly, Twitter had plenty of seemingly Blue Anon-driven "gotcha."

Texas Progressives talk Cancun Ted, Beto-Bob the politician, Shelley Luther

Off the Kuff presented the primary campaign interviews it has conducted so far.

SocraticGadfly offers some thoughts on Karl Rove, election thuggery and election theft in the wake of Rove's Jan. 6 column.

Shelley Luther is continuing to look for political relevance after getting squashed by Drew Springer a year ago. (With the money and notoriety she has, surprised she didn't take a gander at a state House seat, or even primarying Michael Burgess for the U.S. House with redistricting.) Her latest? Calling for a ban on Chinese university students. That said, yeah, some of them may indeed have CCP connections, and two-party duopolists may not look at the issue with more depth.

Van Taylor is getting bigly primaried for supporting an independent commission to investigate Jan. 6, even though he later opposed the House commission. (Remember, this was one of those ersatz "filibusters" by Senate Rethugs.)

What does "progressive" actually mean in Texas politics, at least in Congressional candidates? The Express-News takes a look.

Gus Bova takes the latest state news sites look at R.F. O'Rourke. He indicated that Beto is at risk of becoming Just.Another.Politician.™ Got news for you, Gus. Beto was long there. Like in 2018. Bova does note that after his "take your guns" screed, he then was part of the Texas Democratic Mafia that cock-blocked Bernie Sanders. So, say that he hit a more thorough version of JAP (a prince, or princess version, I see what I did) in 2020. Meanwhile, at the Dallas Observer, Simone Carter goes full bromance on R.F.

For the unknowing, after actually saying something halfway close to the truth about the Jan. 6 insurrection, Ted Cruz then went on Cucker Tarlson, I mean Socialist Swanson Tucker Carlson, and proceeded to cut his balls off and put them on a plate for Tucker. Per that link, Cancun Ted has actually said things 25 percent of the way to the truth about Jan. 6 for months, even while refusing to admit that his vote not to certify electoral votes contributed to the problem. He should have known Swanson Tucker was going to do just what he did, which means Carlson is wrong about one thing — Havana Ted ain't so smart.

Nature vandalism is getting worse at Big Bend, as at other NPS and general nature sites.

Michael Li explains why the discourse about how Democrats have "won" redistricting misses a lot of the picture.

Glasstire eulogizes Ann Harithas, artist and curator and co-founder of the Art Car Museum.

Rick Casey predicts the future following the ongoing 2020 election fraudit.

National

Just when you think Texas election law is hard for third party ballot access, Georgia says hold my beer.

Michael Lind writes about the strange career of Paul Krugman. (And does so without irony, though possibly with some hypocrisy, given Michael Lind's own peregrinations within a tight box generally focused on left-neoliberalism, as in, yes, left, but still within neoliberalism.) Interestingly, per the next piece, Lind notes that Krugman went on to call Stephen Jay Gould an academic fraud.

Sociobiology, like its successor, ev psych, IS sexist, but it's hard to argue that it's racist. So, I would agree with this guy that calling the late E.O. Wilson racist, AND doing so after his death, AND doing so in a Sokol fashion, was a hit job. Who did that? Per Peter Burns, none other than Scientific American. (OTOH, Burns is wrong in thinking Wilson is Mr. Innocent. Sociobiology, and even more its successor, ev psych, was and is sexist. And, both were/are more pseudoscientific than scientific.) Per the graf above, Gould was one of the first to call out sociobiology.

The Nation has a fatuous mini op-ed on climate change, talking about how expensive it will be but NO actual discussion of the details, Tweeted with an even more fatuous hot take about how this is all Republicans' fault when Status Quo Joe has allowed new gummint drilling leases and Dear Leader publicly pushed his "all of the above." And, that's why, after years of 10 cents on the dollar starter subscription offers for the mag, I've continued to refuse.

Texas progressives wonder if Beto's gonna get Kinky-schizophrenic

A brief Roundup, written in advance of vacation. I'll add anything Kuff has, from the road or at the start of the new year.

Besides the "Abbott Tax" (but remember, R.F. O'Rourke took lots of oil and gas money himself in the past), Beto's going after Abbott for vetoing rural broadband legislation. OK, this? It's "nice," but it ain't where the political money is, especially since R.F. has said he ain't backing off all his prez campaign gunz statements. Beto Bob is not yet nearly as schizophrenic as Kinky Friedman, who infamously in 2006 wanted to both legalize pot and put public prayer and the Ten Commandments back in schools, but he's getting there. (Today, I think Kinky, unlike Jesse Ventura up in Minnesota, was actually afraid of the possibility he might be elected, and so, never would stop some degree of clowning.)

The bullet train to real estate grifting (it IS, that's the only reason there's a stop at Roans Prairie) is in court, with the state saying it can't use eminent domain. The Texas Central honchos claim they're a railroad, vs. Kenny Boy Paxton saying the don't currently have a line or tracks AND they're not likely to secure necessary financing to finish it. It's a cold day in June when I agree with Kenny Boy, but there you have it. Already a year ago, in one of several pieces I've written on this, contra Brains and Kuff, though Kuff's reader-commenters had more brains two years ago, cost estimates had doubled. Meanwhile, Strangeabbott had flip-flopped on it. If R.F. were smart and looking at the 'burbs, not Hale County or whatever, he'd go after this.

==

And now for other stuff.

Tex-ass wingnuts efforts to ban books have moved from school libraries to your local public library, and not just in the reddest of red small rural areas. Places as big as Victoria face this fight. 

Californians ARE Californicating Texas if In-N-Out outnumbers Fuck You the Squirrel, aka Bucee's. That said, the Monthly piece ignores that Rick Perry's Tex-ass Miracle was built on Ill Eagles (along with legal immigration from elsewhere, plus smoke and mirrors), not just the start of Californication. It is interesting in that it notes R.F. beat Havana Ted in 2018 among native Texans, but not really a surprise. Many Californians coming here are NOT from the Bay Area; they're Orange County and Inland Empire who like Texas more than Phoenix.

Read about polluting soap chemical maker BASF and its connection to oil-and-gas refining polluting on the Texas Gulf Coast.

Off the Kuff discusses a couple more redistricting lawsuits, a new one filed by Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer over CD35, and an earlier one filed by a state prison inmate who objected to the practice of counting inmates where they are being incarcerated rather than where they live for the purposes of apportioning districts.

SocraticGadfly noted that Ronny Jackson and other Texas winger Congresscritters want to fight the effects of climate change, but only when it affects cops, and without admitting that the likes of Winter Storm Uri are connected to climate change. 

Rick Casey speculates about what might happen if Donald Trump runs but does not win Texas in 2024.

Mark Pitcavage presents some random facts about white supremacist tattoos.  

Mandy Giles is now blogging at Parents of Trans Youth. Elise Hu looks back on her 2021. InnovationMap presents Houston's top three COVID research stories from 2021.

 Reform Austin introduces us to some school librarians who are fed up with and fighting back against book bans.  

Susan Hays and Nonsequiteuse eulogize the great Sarah Weddington. 

National

Can Colorado River basin states, namely the lower basin, cut 500,000 acre-feet from their annual usage, or more specifically, keep 500K more in Lake Mead? Color me skeptical until it happens. It's a voluntary/incentivized plan, and we've seen how well, or poorly, those work with water. That's even more true because this one does NOT only target junior rights holders. Plus, if Nordhaus-Schellenberger "environmentalist" John Fleck thinks it's a big deal, I'm skeptical right there. Also, per Fleck, while it's not "chump change," it's still less than 7 percent of the lower basin's allocation. It also does nothing to address Lake Powell directly, if it has less and less to send downstream.

RIP Joan Didion, but don't eulogize her too much.

Texas progressives talk turkey on Beto, Gohmert Pyle etc.

At the Monthly, Jonathan Tilove takes a deeper dive on R.F. O'Rourke's gubernatorial announcement and hopes, complete with interview. I wondered last week, in discussing his announcement, whether we'd get Beto 2018 or Beto 2020, especially on gunz. In the wake of the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict and the misframing of the trial, law, etc. by most of #BlueAnon, we're getting Beto 2020! He stands by his "Hell yes, we're going to take your AR-15, your AK-47." Good luck in the general, Beto, if you're the nominee. You'll need it.

It appears that Gohmert Pyle either got chickenshit on challenging Kenny Boy Paxton or, more likely and with Paxton already facing two challengers, would-be donors got chickenshit on him. UPDATE: Turns out that maybe Gohmert is that much of a tech putz, OR, for whatever reasons, somebody told him to freeze out Mark Davis, because, he's IN that race, and that needs a separate blog post. And, it now has that.

Strangeabbott's new Secretary of State nominee, John Scott, is not a Trumpist on alleged election fraud and actually says a priority is "bringing the temperature down" on such nuttery, while insisting that selected county audits will be bipartisan and won't involve outsiders, unlike Aridzona. At the same time, years back, as an assistant AG, he defended the state's voter ID bill; Texas Dems are split on their takes, especially with the feds suing Texas over its new law. The Trib has more on the county audits portion of the new election bill, including noting that the Lege forgot to dedicate funding for it, so the SoS' emergency fund is being raided.

Robert Santos, originally from San Antonio, is the first Hispanic to head the Census Bureau. Texas Monthly has a profile.

A Texas law firm represents Eric Coomer, the Dominion Voting Systems employee suing Sidney Powell, Rudy Giuliani, et al. Here's where they're at right now.

Eddie Bernice Johnson says "she's outta there" on Congress. Even though Peanut Butter and Johnson wants a woman to follow her, I'll put a prop bet on Carl Sherman. He's relatively moderate, like her, but can triangulate off of not being under her thumb, especially if multiple women run. Plus, the Best Southwest suburbs are a growing part of the district vis-a-vis South Dallas, and that's his homeland. (The district changed marginally on the southwest and modestly on the southeast.) Related question? Token Republicans have challenged here in about every general since I first lived in the Metromess itself 20 years ago. A couple of times, IIRC, a Libertarian jumped in. But never, even when the Dallas County Green Party was semi-active in the 2000-oughts, did a Green get in. Could an open race change that?

Speaking of Greens? Hunter Crow is running for Railroad Commish. He's got about two more election cycles to go before entering "perennial candidate" territory.

The battle to succeed Pee Bush as land commish has heated up, and includes a party-switching Kleberg family scion running as a Democrap. Kuff, naturally, likes a likely ConservaDem party switcher entering the race. Not yet heard of any Green names for this race, which, per party core issues should be the most important along with RRC. 

Off the Kuff notes and comments on the seventh lawsuit filed so far over the new redistricting maps.

Stace restarts his Thoughts on Viernes series as there were too many news items on which to opine.

Crystal Mason's appeal of her conviction for voting illegally as a felon may have a chance.

The Lake Highlands Advocate analyzes the racial housing wealth gap in Dallas.

Mean Green Cougar Red provides a final update on the Conference USA membership scramble.

The Texas Observer shows the "domino effect" the state's abortion ban is having on clinics around the US.

National and global

SocraticGadfly offers a twofer on environmental-related issues. First, as promised last week, here's his take on Glasgow COP26. Second, he has a long piece on the National Park Service 86-ing an internal study about a mass of employee complaints about sexual harassment, sexual assault and discrimination.

The percentage of voters registered to minor parties (in states that require such) has hit a century-long new high.

Supply chain problems are starting to ease, ease enough that for American hypercapitalism, good wingnut alleged Christians can fill up on made in China shit.

Or, maybe it's "Made in Serbia" shit, as Vietnamese workers at a Chinese-owned factory there are lobbing a variety of human and labor rights allegations against Beijing.

Counterpunch has gone back to the best, or worst, of Alex Cockburn days with a story about how US POWs claim we did germ warfare against North Korea in the Korean War without, at least before the paywall, noting Chinese and / or North Korean "interrogation techniques" that might have induced such statements. With that, Jeff St. Clair, especially given that the late Alex's younger brother Patrick remains a contributor, is getting closer to being deblogrolled again.

Xi Jinping lies about the People's Republic never having made a territorial acquisition.

Beto throws his hat in the ring against Strangeabbott

Announcement on YouTube:

I had not-jokinging asked rhetorically on Twitter which Robert Francis O'Rourke would run.

Would it be the the neoliberal ConservaDem of 2018 who refused to back Medicare for All? (Despite that, and hoping for a place at the party table, then-insurgent Sema Hernandez endorsed him anyway. Go here for my overall take on that. Go here for Hernandez's transmogrification from insurgent to Just.Another.Politician.)

Or would it be the (likely pandering) wild man of the 2020 presidential run, going far left of his previous position on gunz and other things? (He in reality remained a ConservaDem on most issues, like loving him some oil money. But, since he's running for state not federal office, he can dodge single-payer questions.)

Well, per the video, it appears he's taking a page from Railroad Commish candidate Luke Warford and starting with Winter Storm Uri. The "competence" angle is smart. It avoids the "old Beto" vs "new Beto" issues and gets at something that will come back to people's minds when post-bailout power bills start coming in.

That said, Beto did call, by calling it a matter of focus, for legalizing pot. That must be something poll-tested.

At the Trib, Svitek is right: He IS a weaker candidate than in 2018.

That said, Abbott is vulnerable, and if Allen West and Don Huffines push him, could feel the need to tack yet further right in the GOP primary, which would be an issue in the general.

And, a final political chess question.

Now that Beto is in, where is Matthew McConaughey? In or out, and if in, as a ConservaDem or an independent? And, in or out, when does he give us some word?

Texas Progressives talk this and that

Lots to talk about on various issues, so let's dig in!

State

Texas Monthly discusses what all is behind all the recent American and Southwest flight cancellations. Job loss, pre-vax mandate, is a fair chunk of it. Southwest's workforce is down 10 percent pre-pandemic and American's is off 20 percent. BUT? The Monthly ignores United. Per what I've read elsewhere, Southwest, at least, seems to have a just-in-time crew scheduling software, like the just-in-time scheduling managers that have employees not wanting to go back to restaurants and retail stores.

Off the Kuff discussed the first two gubernatorial polls of the fall.

Not so fast on that one Beto-Abbott poll, the first of Kuff's two links. The Trib has another, discussed in that second link, showing Strangeabbott with a comfortable lead. It also shows a lot of people distrust Matt McConaughey. It also shows that, within Rethuglicans, Strange has little to fear from Don Huffines, Allen West or the two of them combined, even. West is, interestingly, ahead of Huffines, with nearly double his support. Guess the wingnut-squared types recognize Huffines as "all hat no cattle" on claiming to be an outsider. Kenny Boy Paxton has little to fear from Pee Bush, too. Pee is well ahead of other challengers in the AG race. On the Dem side, R.F. O'Rourke well outpaces none of the above; nunya leads the Lite Guv and AG races.

That said, Pee Bush also continues to face flack over Alamo issues. Not noted in that piece is that, in the light of a new book by Chris Tomlinson et al, Lite Gov Danny Goeb felt the need to name a special Alamo protection commission. Among its members is Bush's predecessor, pistol-packing Jerry Patterson.  

DosCentavos recaps the 2021 local election results.

The federal Department of Justice is suing Texas over its special session SB1, the one that lead Dems in the Texas Lege to temporarily flee, but doing nothing else. This might have a chance. The suit is targeted and selective, and focuses on how certain provisions in the bill would affect the elderly and disabled. They arguably affect minorities, too, but in a post-Holder world, that's a tough angle to win.

CD Hooks takes a look at the one state lege special election, and Virginia and New Jersey, on what they might portend for Texas next year.

Another Texas death penalty case is in the news.

About 100 people a year die in Texas jails. Many of these were preventable, often easily preventable. The Observer takes a look, a deep look, including at the lack of enforcement when problems are found.

The Railroad Commission doesn't even make a pretense of being ethical.

The now illegal-in-Texas (under arguably dubious grounds by DSHS) delta-8 is being replaced by delta-9. 

Margaret Spellings and Tim Kopra call for a Lone Star space plan.

The Bloggess talks about depression and smiling.

Therese Odell brings you the best food TV episodes that feature Houston cuisine.

Angela Wilkins explains the health care inequity problem. Lisa Gray writes about the AstroWorld tragedy.

National and world

Hillary Clinton apparently Russiagated herself. One of Christopher Steele's flunkies has been indicted by the FBI, and among Danchenko's contacts and sources was Charles Dolan Jr., an old Friend of Bill. He appears not to have any direct tie, though. Danchenko is the main problem, or co-main problem along with FBI sloppiness, per National Review. The second sloppiness is the likes of Steele relying on a guy like this.

Red states have started criminalizing and prosecuting miscarriages.

Take a deep dive on "separation payments" and Status Quo Joe's fuzzy-headedness on the issue, whether another sign of aging-related mental health issues, ConservaDem political scrambling, or a mix of both.

A Sinclair reporter, whether honestly or via a slip, spills the beans and admits, re the Virginia election, that critical race theory is NOT taught in schools there.

The truth about Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace Prize winner far worse than Dear Leader Obama, and arguably the worst and most megalomaniac since Kissinger.

Zhang Zhan, a Chinese journalist who reported on the truth of Xi Jinping Thought's early response to COVID was convicted and imprisoned in December. She's now on a hunger strike and reportedly close to death, even with forced feedings.  

Latest estimates are that Brexit will cost the UK 4 percent of GNP.

 

Texas Progressives: the Pelosi honeymoon is over

National

Whether or not Movement for a People's Party was trying to game some things with "Force the Vote," the Democratic Congressional establishment is trying to game things with their priority bill by designation, HR1. David Bruce Collins notes that it would (if it actually lives up to that) cut, but not eliminate, so called dark money from races but ONLY at the expense of third-party matching funds, making that MUCH more difficult. He notes other problems with HR1 besides that.

Jimmy Dore has channeled his inner Caitlin Johnstone and red-black alliance wet dreams to try to normalize Boogaloo Bros. fellow travelers.

More evidence is coming in on the coordination of the Capitol riot.

Mark Pitcavage explains the history of the word "sheeple".

 

National-sports

SocraticGadfly explains why he is totally on board with the pending trade of Nolan Arenado to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Texas

Texas Dems have run two real Hispanics for gov in the past 20 years, and they were two two biggest flops in that time, as Loopy Lupe Valdez well underperformed other Dems running for statewide race in 2018, and in 2002, Tony Sanchez turned out to be a former Republican donor. So, instead, maybe Dems will run a fake Hispanic in 2022, as Billy Bob Beto, aka Robert  Francis O'Rourke, has indicated interest in challenging Strangeabbott. And, of course, Beto's a Pander Bear and other things.

Rep. James White, who has an R. last initial, wants TDCJ to rename prisons that are named after former slaveowners and other racist types. It's a start. How about decriminalizing pot next? Or ending arrests for Class C misdemeanors, to further the spirit of Sandra Bland-based reform?

Thanks to the Innocence Project, Rosa Jimenez is finally free (and not deported, either).

Wind energy is nice, but what do you do with all the old blades, which aren't really recyclable? The Observer looks at options.

Ted Cruz supports a constitutional amendment to term-limit senators. Anybody really expect him to voluntarily not run in 2024? (Actually, it's possible he tries to get the prezzie nomination again; it's also likely he fails again.)

Grits for Breakfast expresses cautious optimism about new Travis County DA Jose Garza. Grits also has a roundup of criminal justice issues.

Off the Kuff examines a couple of polls about current political attitudes in Texas.

 

Loren Steffy observes that the oil industry didn't do so well under Donald Trump.  

 

Reform Austin reports from the first Senate Special Committee on Redistricting meeting. 

 

Jef Rouner calls for a MAGA ban at fan conventions. 

 

North Texas

Jenna Ryan, the new Shelley Luther, may face a tougher time grifting for (alleged) legal defense money.

As of the weekend, we were up to seven arrested Capitol insurrectionionists from North Texas.

I agree with TPWD and remain doubtful that it was a mountain lion that killed a Hood County man. Related? I've seen way too many Texans claim to have seen a cougar/mountain lion/panther when almost certainly you saw a bobcat. You're 10 times more likely to see a bear in Texas, and yet, nobody actually claims to see one.

Walmart's bringing robot-fueled warehouses to two North Texas stores to fill pick-up orders, and Kroger is converting one Dallas store to clerk-free. Both are brought to the table by COVID, but likely would have happened soon enough anyway.

Beto batting 0-2 on recent constitutional issues

Just a month after proposing an almost certainly unconstitutional mandatory buyback for guns, Robert Francis O'Rourke is at it again. And on the wrong side of the constitution again. (My take on the gunz issue was NOT based on the Second Amendment; click the link to see why I stand where I do.)

Removing tax-exempt status from churches that oppose gay marriage is surely a First Amendment violation. Now, there IS a good argument to be made that the First Amendment and tax law are being interpreted incorrectly and NO CHURCH should have any tax exemption, or other tax favors beyond what other nonprofits do, but that's an entirely different issue. (It's an argument that, as a secularist, I totally support.)

Give props to Beto for supporting Colin Kaepernick's #TakeAKnee in the middle of his Senate campaign against Booger Ted Cruz. That was a great First Amendment defense. But Bob on a Knob is on the wrong side here.

I find the mix of ardent idealism and blatant pandering to be fascinating, I'll admit.

On the mandatory gun buybacks, I'll put it at 75 percent idealism 25 percent pandering.

Especially given that the churches issue was at an LGBTQ town hall, I'll generously put Beto at only 75 percent pandering, 25 percent idealism, on that one. Generously.

The split the other way around on the gunz may be a bit generous, too. Especially since Eric Levitz has now called out Bob on these two issues and more.

Update: Bob on a Knob has now moved from pandering to lying on gunz when he claims he hasn't promoted confiscation. Yes you have, dude; a MANDATORY buyback is just that.

We as a nation and the Democratic Party have gone BACKWARDS on gun control

The AR-15, 25 years ago, was specifically listed as among weapons banned under the Bill Clinton era Federal Assault Weapons Ban.

Last night, at the third Democratic debate, Robert O'Rourke called for AR-15s, and other guns, to be banned again. And Democrat senator Chris Coon went apeshit.

Coons said he is working with Republicans to pass more modest gun control measures.

Judging by the rest of The Hill's story at the second link, his measures are modest indeed, and like Winston Churchill's one famous putdown in the House of Commons, Coons surely has much to be modest about.

A "notification" when someone banned from buying guns tries to buy one? We should have that already in place federally and in all 50 states.

Here's Coons on O'Rourke:

“I don’t think having our presidential candidates, like Congressman O’Rourke did, say that we’re going to try to take people’s guns against their will is a wise policy or political move,” Coons said.

Whether or not it's a wise political move (and it may be more that than you think, Coons), it's a good policy move — with some editing.

Let's start with the ban part of O'Rourke's call being THE POLICY 25 years ago. A buyback is the logical next step forward off that. That said, given the current Supreme Court, a mandatory buyback would almost certainly be found unconstitutional. But legislation on a Cass Sunstein "nudge" angle could sweeten the pot for buybacks. As part of a new assault weapon ban, declare that the use of a weapon on an assault weapons ban list for any crime automatically federalizes the crime, or even federalizes it and enhances it one felony degree. Or something similar.

That said, and sorry, fellow ardent gun control advocates, I think a mandatory buyback would be unconstitutional, but not on Second Amendment grounds. I think it would be deemed ex post facto legislation. I would consider it that. I do also think a mandatory buyback might lead to other, violent, problems.

But, back to Coons.

Besides, you're almost certainly being played by Pat Toomey and other Rethuglicans anyway, Coons.

To a man, or woman, GOP Congresscritters are either scared shitless of the legendary power of the NRA (which ain't necessarily reality any more) or else, like, say, Dan Crenshaw here in Tex-ass, or Briscoe Cain at the state level, really are gun nuts.

These are the same people who just say "enforce the current laws better" then work to carve out loopholes in those laws that people like eBay use.

Stop following the Overton Window, Chris. 

===

That said, Beto having quote-printed T-shirts for sale shortly after the debate, and having his website updated to show Trump as white nationalist, shows this was all a canned, packaged plan.

THAT that said, how much actual lifting did Bob on a Knob do on gun control when he was in the House? He was kind of a ConservaDem on many issues himself. And, Puff Hoes reminds me that he refused to campaign for Gina Ortiz Jones, or more, refused to campaign against travel buddy Will Hurd, last year. That could be seen as somewhat of a gotcha.

OK, his gun ratings? Both the NRA and the even more nutbar (yes, true) Gun Owners of America ranked Bob very lowly, but neither one ever gave him a zero. And, if he really thought gun rights were this ardent of an issue 12 months ago, he would have done more for Jones and against Hurd than just sharing a donor contacts list.