Alternative history: Ronnie is nominated in 76, loses general to Carter

This is the third in a series of counterfactual history articles about Ronald Reagan's presidential quest having an alternative timeline from what happened in reality. All are based in part on thoughts stimulated by Bob Spitz's new Reagan bio, reviewed by me here. Here's the first and here's the second posts.

This one presumes that Reagan beats Gerald Ford for the 1976 Republican nomination — and then loses the general election to Jimmy Carter just like Ford did.

Both portions of that occurrence are quite possible.

Reagan lost New Hampshire, as Spitz notes, for entirely avoidable reasons. Lyn Nofziger bragged to Gov. Meldrin Thompson about how big a lead they were piling up and he then went public with it.

That right there is the alternative history change point.

Imagine that Nofziger keeps his mouth shut. Or that John Sears or whomever never gives Nofziger such info in the first place.

Sears, instead, when any rumored leaks comes out of the campaign, does negative spin.

Reagan wins by 10 points. Turns the heat on in the South more than he actually did. Sears tells him, to like Carter, play up the outsider stuff and make a reference to cleaning up Washington. Keep it subtle while hinting about Ford's pardon for Nixon and distancing himself from his past blank-check support for Nixon. Sears' moderate-conservative GOP centrism is sold in a way to appeal to Reagan.

Reagan narrowly wins, by slightly more than Ford did. He, as Ford actually did, names Dole his Veep.

And, all of this is not enough. Sears, as in the start of 1980, has trouble keeping reins on a fractious campaign, both in terms of general organization and also political message organization. Despite his attempts to moderate Reagan, Carter makes him look like a new Goldwater and wins the election.

Carter faces the Shah-and-mullahs trouble he did in reality, but not to Reagan's benefit. In 1980, moderate-conservative Republicans pick back up on the "new Goldwater" claims of Carter. Hints of age issues also get dropped here and there. Reagan bows out after failing to corral sufficient support in the South.

Reagan centennial — MSM myth vs. reality

Here's some samplings of the AP's myth-reproducing http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_17278940 :

(Many Reagan stories) illustrate what his fans and defenders might call typical Reagan, the mix of determination and optimism that led him to Hollywood, California’s governor’s mansion and the White House, ultimately making him an icon for conservatives.

The region where Reagan grew up — defined by the towns where his salesman father, Jack Reagan, could land a job — gave him a sense of what Reagan biographer Lou Cannon calls rootedness, while his mother, Nelle Reagan, saw to it that he viewed his glass as at least half full.

“Even the experience that was the most searing in his boyhood, which was his father’s drinking, it was almost relentlessly positive what she was saying to him,” said Cannon, who has written five books on Reagan and covered him as White House correspondent for the Washington Post. “‘It’s a sickness, don’t blame your father.’”

The reality? It's in this book http://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Sold-World-Betrayal/dp/1568584423/ref=cm_cr-mr-title, The Man Who Sold the World: Ronald Reagan and the Betrayal of Main Street America by William Kleinknecht.

From my review:

Since a lot of conservatives like to claim Reagan did so much to help small towns' Main Street, and since Reagan himself pitched myths about that, Kleinknecht starts the book off with a brilliant conceit.

He actually visits Reagan's small-town birthplace of Dixon, Ill., and talks to people there about how it has changed since 1980. That includes people who say they'll only talk to him if not asked to comment negatively on Reagan - which is, itself, an indirect negative comment on Reagan!

Kleinknecht then supplements that with data from the Department of Labor, Department of Commerce, etc., showing just what Reagan did do to, and NOT "for," Dixon and by extension, other small towns.

Michael Reagan concern trolls for daddy's legacy

No surprise here. Michael Reagan, Ron's eldest and apparent legacy-preserver, is horrified by half-brother Ron's claim that old man Reagan may already have been developing Alzheimer's symptoms back in 1984, and that his befuddled performance in his first presidential debate against Walter Mondale reflected that.

Now, of course, there's no way to prove Ron's claim. And, it could be that Reagan was suffering another age-related problem besides Alzheimer's, including, perhaps, another dementia.

That said, the general idea I don't find unbelievable at all. Iran-Contra, certainly, looks like Reagan's actions and mindset were influenced in some way.

As for Ron talking about it now? Well, you Reagan centenary wingnuts, it turns out Nancy's OK with Ron talking, too.

As for Reagan having secret surgery while president? It's possible. It would be a lot harder to pull off than it was for Grover Cleveland in 1893, but it's possible.