SocraticGadfly

April 29, 2026

Love me some James Hansen, but I'm more skeptical of nuclear power than he is

Here's Hansen writing about IPCC censorship of climate change warming and forcing last year. And, since the UN is a government, even though it has no First Amendment, that is censorship in the narrow, proper sense.

In parts of the piece, about halfway down, comes the more problematic part.

First, I had this in my "restacking" comments.

Comments are interesting. I’m not deadset against nuclear power, but I’m more skepticaal than many of the commenters, including Hansen. I’m skeptical of nuclear power being as green as claimed (though it’s certainly better than gas, let alone coal). Also, having grown up in Gallup, New Mexico, and being old enough to remember the collapse of the tailings pond dam at the Church Rock mine, I still look carefully at safety issues on uranium mining and processing as well as nuclear plants. I don’t know if most commenters here do that or not. 
As for more modern reactors? Especially the touted thorium ones? If state-capitalist China actually out commercial reactors, or even conclusively demonstrates that its just-launched experimental reactor can scale up, we can talk.

We'll go from there. 

Hansen's first comment, the halfway down, starting with a 1990s starting point on this by him:

Almost unlimited subsidy of renewable energies was adopted in many U.S. states and some other nations via “Renewable Portfolio Standards,” requiring utilities to obtain a growing fraction of their energy from renewable energies. This approach, as contrasted with “Clean Energy Portfolio Standards,” spurred the development of natural gas as the complement to intermittent renewable energy, and, as a consequence, expansion of fracking, pipelines, and methane leakage. Nuclear power, given the costs of the fuel and materials to build a power plant, has potential to be the least expensive among the firm, dispatchable, energy sources, but attainment of its potential, as with other sources, requires extensive R&D and experience. Thus, it is ironic that the COP now suddenly asks for nuclear energy output to be tripled

Well, to be cynical more than skeptical, but, at bottom line, "on the one hand, I have shit, on the other, I have potential." 

Second, per later comments, yes, some of the Gang Green enviros may have been partially "captured" by the natural gas portion of fossil fuels. Sierra certainly was. But, I don't really listen to anybody to the "right" of Center for Biological Diversity, while noting I don't know its stance on nukes.

Third, "intermittent renewable energy"? Maybe not in the 1990s, but there IS today this thing called "battery storage." Also, Hansen should know that in places like Denmark and Norway, the entire country has, for brief periods of time in the last couple of years, "metered backward" because 100 percent of electricity was coming from renewables and overflowing.  

Now, let's jump earlier in that same paragraph:

[F]ailure to support development of nuclear power as a carbon-free source of energy was widespread.

Uhh, totally not true, as far as lifecycle emissions, James. 

This ignores, per this piece of mine, with the aid of Counterpunch, carbon costs of uranium mining, uranium refining, long-term waste storage, and the high carbon costs of concrete containment domes.

Here's your graphic detail:

Per Counterpunch, those estimates come from a professor at Stanford, not exactly a bastion of leftism as a university. Mark Jacobson's whole piece is here, with link to PowerPoint slides that are basis of a book by him being here. Now, per Hansen's rightful bashing of the IPCC on other grounds, the fact that Jacobson references IPCC estimates, even though the numbers are from his own work, may be used to take him down.

I wouldn't do that unless one's on very solid ground. Beyond that, per notes 18 and 19 on his Wiki page, he has responded to critics. 

But, let's say Jacobson is off by a factor of three. Nuclear is still no better than wave or tidal, then. (In case you're wondering, not just because of the massive concrete for a dam, but because of backed-up decaying plant life in the lake behind a dam and other things, yes, hydro is not all that green.)

Beyond that, per Counterpunch, with the global warming portion of climate change, in many places, summertime cooling water for nuclear plants will become less and less available, not just because of potential lack of water, but warming of shallow water in already-warm locations.

Anyway, now, back to Hansen. 

His piece doesn't at all discuss safety issues.

I am NOT primarily talking "Iranian terrarists stealing uranium from a nuclear plant," let alone plutonium from a breeder reactor. 

Rather, I am in part talking long-term waste storage, since we have no Yucca Mountain, and unlike France, have not bribed some rural ghetto part of Merikkka to take the waste, and unlike China or Russia, are not authoritarian countries who can force decisions on where nuclear waste is buried. 

Second, there's mine safety issues.

As I note in that piece, I grew up where the "other" 1979 nuclear safety incident happened.

Gallup, New Mexico, just east of Church Rock, where the dam for a tailings pond broke and dumped radioactive water in the Puerco River, and nobody told rural Navajos, or the city of Gallup, right away.

I also know from that area about the exploitative treatment, especially in early years, of Navajo and Pueblo miners. And, while not a conspiracy theorist in general, per Karen Silkwood, Kerr-McGee was ultimate owner of that Church Rock mine. 

Today, in places like Congo, uranium miners are exploited as bad or worse.

And, on the environmental side, things aren't better today. Modern injection-extraction uranium mining?  It's as nasty, or potentially so, as fracking on steroids. It's also highly water-intensive.

Finally, on uranium, given how low-grade much of current commercially mined ore already is, on the economic side, there's the issue of scalability. 

Thorium-fuel reactors? Yes, per one commenter, the US once had an experimental thorium reactor. Or two; a late 1960s one at Oak Ridge, then a bigger 1970s one at Shippingport. There's others that have been built occasionally in other countries. China just started one. If it's all it's cracked up to be, why aren't there more? Well, per Wiki's piece, thorium reactors have disadvantages as well as advantages. It says China plans to have commercial thorium reactors by 2030. We'll see. It's a country with a state capitalism economy and authoritarian government, and with limited oil and natural gas reserves. If thorium was the bee's knees, don't you think China would be further down this road? On the other hand, China gets only 5 percent of its electric power from nukes today, versus nearly 20 percent in the US.

To put it bluntly? The Shippingport experimental thorium reactor was 50 years ago. If thorium is so damned good, why hasn't some country in the world started a commercial thorium reactor by now? And, no, here in the US it wasn't entirely killed off by chasing uranium breeder reactors,

And, while we're here, contra this Reuters piece, no, nuclear fusion is not just around the corner. 

And while we're really really here?

Ahh, this guy Brent James, apparently trying to play gotcha with this comment, as part of a semi-conspiratorial take on the rise of renewables.

The correct answer is the one I’ve given — both wind and solar themselves have become more efficient, as has battery storage. HOW MUCH more efficient, I don’t know. More efficient? Yes. And, with costs continuing to drop.

I don’t need to be a registered and licensed utility electric engineer to know that. And, if renewables don’t integrate into the grid perfectly, even if not as badly as he insinuates? The fault, dear Brutus, may be in part with the grid, not renewables being tied into it. 

As for the oilfield loving renewables? Even in Texas, there's a push to decarbonize, plus, as the western and more remote part of the Permian becomes ground zero for new fracking, it's a helluva lot easier to drop a few solar panels in the field rather than trying to tie into the existing grid. 

As for another comment of his? I did give him an AI summary off Duck Duck Go's search.

"Renewable electricity storage batteries are improving significantly, with battery storage costs declining by 93% from 2010 to 2024, driven by technological advancements and increased manufacturing. Additionally, the adoption of lithium-ion batteries, particularly lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistries, has surged, enhancing efficiency and lifespan, making them more effective for energy storage applications."

He never responded. And, after I edited and updated my first response to him to note that? He blocked me.

Finally, let me get back to the semi-conspiratorial ideas about Gang Green environmental groups, fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear power, that certainly seem to be held in some degree by Hansen himself, not just this Brent James.

As noted above, I'm well aware of Sierra, and to some degree, other Gang Greens pushing the narrative of natural gas as "clean." I'm also aware that money was behind that, and primarily to be anti-coal. See this piece from Time.

Gang Greens bit on that before renewables really started surging. Gas was better than coal, and nuclear power was back-shelved anyway. Post-2003, and "mushroom clouds" in Iraq, and the disintegration of the old USSR, nuclear proliferation worried had proliferated. Not building nuke plants was one way of lessening that.

Otherwise, even years after 2003, the natural gas segment of the fossil fuels world was just pushing gas, period, as far as I see it. It wasn't pushing renewables behind that, nor was it pushing against nuclear behind that. If anything, it might already then thought it had more to fear from renewables.

As for Hansen's belief? And James' even more? Per this site, yeah, we seem in the land of the conspiracy theory. And, contra it, Jacobson did NOT "lose" his lawsuit. See his Wiki page.

Otherwise, that site (top hit on Duck Duck Go when I asked if natural gas companies were trying to kill nukes through Sierra et al) has no links to its "originating members." Web searches of half a dozen at random left me less than impressed.

One of them, somewhat more impressive on background, Ripudaman Malhotra, thinks that fusion, if not just around the corner, is closer than it's been before. I don't believe it's that much closer, and with Commonwealth CFS, note its CEO's ties to Trump. Follow the money.

Another piece by that guy ignores non-chemical "battery" storage of surplus renewable electricity, such as water systems. In another piece, on nuclear waste, he doesn't scale up the amount of waste that will be produced with a massive nuclear power expansion. Also, contra his implication otherwise, France still has nuclear waste even after reprocessing. (Sigh) See Wiki, which also breaks down waste by radioactivity level and lifespan, and rather than using cute descriptors like:

The total volume of all the spent fuel is 22,000 cubic meters, which would fill one football field (100 yards by 55 yds) to a depth of 13 feet!

Gets straight to cubic meters.

And, in reality, France alone has almost 4,000 cubic meters of high-radioactivity, long-life waste, which could eventually hit 25,000 cubic meters. 

That said, this guy does NOT tout thorium.

One more issue. Union of Concerned Scientists, touted by many of the pro-nuke groups and individuals, per this piece, DOES worry about nuclear waste. It also notes many of today's currently operating nuke plants are marginally profitable to unprofitable. So, a massive nuclear expansion would do what to electric bills? This has LONG been a problem in the industry, and largely ignored by nuke pushers. 

And, that said, speaking of UCS, I suggest Hansen, and people uncritically agreeing with him, I suggest they read Andrew Cockburn, and via him, Edwin Lyman of UCS. Lyman talks about continual weakening (not just by Trump) of US reactor safety standards and more. That includes the abandonment of requirements for concrete containment domes. That and other relaxed standards SHOULD BE scary as hell.

Finally, I don't know about UCS, but none of the other people, including Malhotra, talk about mine worker safety, only power plant and waste safety.

Finally, and yes, while not operating 24/7, wind is as efficient as nukes in producing electricity. 

And, I've wasted enough time. 

April 28, 2026

Texas Tech expands draconian "Don't Say Gay" stance

Texas Tech gets worse, officially adopting a policy that, per Erin in the Morning, is basically "Don't Say Gay," not only for profs, but for students on dissertation and paper subjects and such. And, it's not just for Tech itself, but the whole Tech System, that also includes Midwestern State, Angelo State, and two health science centers.

Here's the nutgraf:

Under the new policy, all majors, minors, certificates, and graduate degrees "centered on" sexual orientation or gender identity will be eliminated. Provosts at each university must identify every affected program and submit finalized lists to the chancellor's office by June 15, 2026, at which point an immediate admissions freeze will take effect—no new students will be allowed to enroll in or declare any of the targeted programs. Currently enrolled students will be allowed to finish their degrees through a teach-out process, but once the last of them graduates, the fields will cease to exist at Texas Tech entirely.

Yikes. 

How much will this affect their bottom line, that is, enrollment? Many public as well as private schools face enrollment problems due to already bulging college costs. Why pay to go to a censorious university that won't let you study what you think you should study, not even for one class, that unconstitutionally tried to censor your right to protest, and will be losing professors?

I mean, just tuition at Tech for an in-state student is more than $10,000 a year. Total attendance cost is $25K or more for an on-campus in-state student.

I went to a private college long ago, with approximately $6K a year paying the full freight. (It wasn't a fancy one by any means.) Even adjusting for inflation, that's $18K a year today. 

I mean, college costs in general are ridiculous today, but add this on top of that? 

Final question: who sues? This clearly strikes me as First Amendment viewpoint discrimination.

Chris Hooks undercuts himself on redistricting battles

Here's CD Hooks' take on the state-by-state redistricting semi-wash (not a wash yet with Virginia's on judicial hold):

When Texas needs something from the Feds—say, disaster aid after a hurricane—it benefits from having both Democrats and Republicans from its congressional delegation in senior positions in Congress. Republican state lawmakers advocated for the gerrymander by arguing that it was in the state’s core interest to ensure that the next Congress was Republican-controlled. But Democrats are likely to win control of the House—likelier to do so now because of what the Texas Legislature did—so the Legislature has weakened the negotiating position of the state in D.C. by shrinking the number of Democrats in the delegation and knocking out at least a few more well-regarded Democratic incumbents.

Sidebar: Ain't it funny to see the number of anti-gerrymandering opinion pieces in places like the NY Post AFTER the Virginia vote? 

That said, Hooks spoils it by entering the land of naivete:

There just might be a silver lining to this mess. If, after the midterm, there is national momentum toward a kind of grand bargain on redistricting, a meaningfully good thing will have come out of the Texas Legislature. The nation could, in theory, work out some kind of compact to limit redistricting to set intervals, say, or task independent commissions with drawing district lines on common criteria—proposals that are already favored by Democrats. But the change will have come from Texas lawmakers themselves learning the hard way that when you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes.

Can I have the hopium you're smoking? Dems are not winning back the state House and certainly not the state Senate. 

Yes, the other half of his narrative is true, that state Rethuglicans screwed themselves. But, the final fallout of redistricting will have empowered Trump, if anything. After the midterms, we'll get even more "fake elections" rants and even more push for state voter data. 

April 27, 2026

Ten Commandments in Tex-ass schools? Constitutional, per Fifth Circuit

In a 9-8 full court ruling, the Fifth Circuit upheld Texas law about cramming the Ten Commandments into public schools. Contra Kuff, I am actually kind of shocked. Wingnuts they may be otherwise, but the court has in the past generally been decent on First Amendment issues.

This quote:

“It does not tell churches or synagogues or mosques what to believe or how to worship or whom to employ as priests, rabbis, or imams,” according to the ruling. “It punishes no one who rejects the Ten Commandments, no matter the reason.”

Is bullshit.

First, it DOES tell children in public schools what they should believe. THAT is the definition of establishment of religion.

Slate notes in detail how it's coercive, riffing on the Supreme Court's support for parental rights in various rulings:

If it’s true that parental rights are so important, then the 5th Circuit has to be wrong in upholding the Texas Ten Commandments law. The court tried to downplay this point by saying that it is just a “poster” and therefore lacks any coercive effect. But posters exist in educational settings so that they can educate. This is not a photo of a kitten saying “Believe in yourself!” A reproduction of a major religious text is bound to have an impact on the classroom experience. What happens when the first student asks a question about that large poster on the wall? If the teacher answers in a manner that showcases approval of the Ten Commandments, won’t the student feel pressured to agree? Or what if the teacher tells the student, as the 5th Circuit suggests, to simply ignore the poster? Could the state then punish the teacher for showing “anti-Christian” bias?

It also notes how it defies Supreme Court precedent:

What’s most remarkable about the decision, though, is not its support for theocracy, but its direct defiance of the Supreme Court. In 1980, justices struck down a law virtually identical to Texas’, forbidding states from placing the Ten Commandments in public school classrooms. By flouting this precedent, the 5th Circuit effectively went rogue, daring the Supreme Court to check its brazen disobedience.

That said, that was 1980, Slate. The Roberts Court has overridden precedent left and right. Somewhat in light of that, Slate notes:

What’s most remarkable about the decision, though, is not its support for theocracy, but its direct defiance of the Supreme Court. In 1980, justices struck down a law virtually identical to Texas’, forbidding states from placing the Ten Commandments in public school classrooms. By flouting this precedent, the 5th Circuit effectively went rogue, daring the Supreme Court to check its brazen disobedience.

 You think the Blind Umpire is really that worried? The only way he and other Catholics get concerned is if the Calvinist/Baptist version, barring graven images, is the only version allowed.

Frankly, per Slate's reference to 2022's Kennedy case, the court might now be looking for a reason to explicitly junk Lemon. We shall see. 

And, even if SCOTUS overturns, the damage will have been done. 

Net zero hypocrisies in Denton

The Observer reports on Denton's hypocrisies of more roads (and other things) versus a carbon net zero pledge. The bottom line:

Population pressure is real, and much of this construction is driven by state and county decisions Denton cannot fully control. But the city still holds levers it is not using. It can prioritize sidewalk and trail funding at the same level of urgency with which it funds road bonds. It can align development approvals with transit access rather than car dependence. And it can ensure that its positions on state-level highway expansion are consistent with its net-zero commitment. 
These choices have concrete costs. Ground-level ozone is already a documented crisis in this region, and every additional lane mile compounds it. The Climate Action Plan already identifies the tools needed to change course. The question is how consistently those tools are applied in practice. The orange barrels will eventually come down. The question is whether Denton will use the years of construction ahead to make different choices, or simply wait for the next plan to also go unread.

There you are. 

Living north of Little D, I find the I-35 expansion in Cooke County totally unnecessary not just for today but beyond, and of course, there's limited mass transit up here. 

April 24, 2026

Mojave National Preserve is full of shit

No really and yes literally. I noticed it myself on vacation last month. I thought I was in Grand Staircase-Escalante or Cascade-Siskyou national monuments, which are respectively, for the not knowing, BLM and USFS lands. I knew it had to be grazing leases and not just inholdings, based on the trail I was on, signage and fencings.

I did the google and got that link above, and it's even more disconcerting 

As of five years ago, at least, cows were even allowed in wilderness areas of the preserve, which, unlike the two sites above, is a National Park Service unit.

Ridiculous. What's being preserved?

It's like Dear Leader when he expanded Cascade-Siskyou because "sensitive habitat" and never made any effort to cut down on grazing leases. 

The issue is that this (under Clinton) and later actions under Obama and Biden are how Democrat presidents pretend to be environmentalists. 

That said, this sign: 

Shows larger problems with the NPS. What's blacked out? Why? How many years ago? Will the services that have been blacked out ever be fixed? If not, will NPS ever pay for permanent new signs?

When I saw this, I was reminded of a restaurant bleeding money that starts cutting items from the menu but is too cheap to print new menus to reflect that.

And no, this isn't "all Trump's fault." I am sure the black tape blackouts were done more than 15 months ago. 

Also, per friend Lyle Lewis, it's not the only NPS unit with grazing leases still active.

Also not Trump's fault, but the fault of both halves of the duopoly in Congress, which refuse to raise federal grazing rates to match that of private land in the West. About 3 percent of all your Merikkkan beef is grazed on federal land of any sort in its life. About 0.3 percent is grazed on (theoretically) protected federal land. In other words, this wouldn't affect the price of your steak at all.

And, I said both halves of the duopoly?

Look at the related issue of mining, where the government consistently refuses to raise rates and fees for hard-rock mining on federal land. For many, many years, the lead opposition to that was Democratic Sen. Harry Reid. I've long said we need to up both.

Then, there's the issue of inholdings.

A lot of NPS units have them, but Mojave is one of the worst. The boundaries of the preserve, as presented on the park's map as shown on the website and printed on the "trifold" slick brochure have little connection to reality. And, most of the inholdings are ranch land. I originally thought that the shit I saw near the Rings Loop trail was due to inholdings, not grazing leases, until I first checked details of how fences ran and knew it couldn't have been an inholding, then did teh Google and got the link above. 

And we haven't even touched on all the National Recreation Areas in the NPS, most of which are damned lakes behind damned dams, all of which violates the Organic Act. I've called them out for this before.

That said, this isn't new and isn't limited to Mojave. Carsten Lien's excellent book on the history of Olympic has a fair amount of discussion of the dirtiness of the Park Service in general. 

And, speaking of cows and cow shit, let's not forget Point Reyes