Your #USOpen winner for 2017 is?

First, I have confidence that Erin Hills will be much better than Chambers Bay of two years ago, if for no other reason than having real greens. Its particular blind spots may challenge many golfers, but unless the rain there is heavy, it should play "short," despite its stated length, and the wider cuts on some fescue will allow for aggressiveness.

In short, perhaps a bit like nearby Whistling Straits, yet not exactly the same. Even more links-like, perhaps, in some ways.

That said, it DOES have some blind shots, which are very links-like. And, it's going to have a lot of uneven lies.

And, of course, it's a first-time track.

So, how does that factor into picking a winner?

Two stories are a guide.

The first? This, suggesting a top-10 player is the likely winner at a first-time U.S. Open or PGA track. 

The second? This one, suggesting that the blind shots, the sideways lies, etc., will all likely favor a European golfer.

So, European. Top 10.

In order, that's Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia, the hot Alex Noren and the hot earlier this year Jon Rahm. Justin Rose is just outside that list at 11, and gets bonus points for being a previous major winner and his second at this year's Masters.

So, that's six against the field. I'll take that as a prop bet right there.

But, which of the six? Rory's still rebounding from the rib injury. Scratch him. Stenson's been not so hot this year, with five missed cuts. Scratch him.

Sergio may be on a post-Masters high, or he may be locked in, per this piece. Let me think.

The final three?

Rose isn't thought of as a bomber, but he has a slight driving length edge over Rahm and a bigger one over Noren. The three play the same on putting average, too.

So, with that in mind, my money is on Justin Rose.

With Sergio locked in enough for second.

And my money, along with that of the Weather Channel, is NOT on Phil Mickelson playing. Sorry, Philly Mick fans, but weather delays only likely Friday and Saturday.


That said, per Golf.com, maybe rain will be bad enough on Saturday to force a Monday finish if Sunday's start is a problem.

My #USOpen2015 picks, prop bets, etc.

I'm enough of a golf fan that I usually do a blog post ahead of each of the four major tournaments.

And, we're at U.S. Open time this weekend, at a visually stunning course at Chambers Bay, which will not be your father's U.S. Open. I think maybe we should call it "linksy" instead of a full-blown links, but it's similar enough. I think it's more of a true links than Whistling Straits in Wisconsin, home of two previous PGAs as well as this year's.  Certainly, with the possibility of oceanside weather, it's more linksy than any course in Wisconsin.

Between that, its length, and Tiger Woods' impression that every hole feels like it's playing uphill (surely, Tiger, the par-3 with a 100-foot drop doesn't feel that way, does it?) it's going to be a challenge. At the same time, while many applauded, some worried about the tricked-out Pinehurst a year ago, and it turned out tame. Beyond that, there's no rain in the forecast, no wind above 12mph or so, and no full sun until Saturday. And, Rory McIlroy says that lofted irons, rather than run-up ground balls, are still in play.

That said, I mentioned Red Shirt, so off to prop bets.

Tiger I put at 50-50 to make/miss the cut. The same is true for Ian James Poulter, just because he's being Poulteresque.

Winning score? I'll go with 1 over. I'll go with half a dozen snowmen on individual hole scores. I'll go with three scores of, say 83 or worse. But, I don't think this place is going to blow up. Looks like no British Open-type weather. With no full sun until Saturday, greens may stay fairly slow.

Now that I've written TW off, what about some other players?

First, I swat down the touting of Jim Furyk by some. This is NOT his type of U.S. Open. Too, too long. He might not make the cut either. I also don't see this as a Steve Stricker place. Especially on Furyk, national golf writers should know better.

D.J. Johnson? Call me when he actually wins a major.

Ditto for Rickie Fowler.

Jordan Speith? While his caddie has looped the course, no, young'uns like him don't win back-to-back majors. That said, said caddie, Michael Greller, has good analysis of what he thinks will be the toughest holes.

Without picking a winner, or saying it will for sure come from this group, I'm going to tag three.

One is Rory. I'm assuming his Eurotour missed cuts are primarily fatigue. I'll secondly assume that this isn't so linksy as to make him lose focus or whatever, per his own words above. And, if those words aren't enough, he's also talking smack on the level of LeBron.

The second is Adam Scott. Steve Williams back on the bag, slow greens to help him dodge his dodgy putting, and surely a "legacy" desire to win a second major.

The third is Phil Mickelson. Philly Mick finally got links right at Muirfield. He's rounding into shape, has motivation, and could just pull it off.

As for the course? I do agree with Andy North that 1 and 18, which can be set up as either a par 4 or a par 5, should have the day's setup announced in advance, like the day before.

Who will win this year's #USOpen?

Well, we know Tiger Woods won't.

And, I'll guesstimate that Phil Mickelson will find a new way to lose. Probably something involving one of the sandy "collection areas at Pinehurst No. 2.

Speaking of, I'm looking forward to this year's Open, and the set-up that's been compared a bit to a British Open.

And, per the first link, if Johnny Miller hates it, then it must be good. That said, I am pretty sure I'll miss him as part of NBC's coverage team, as this is the last hurrah at the Open for the Peacock. And, Joe Buck on golf? Well, let's see. Greg Norman as his analyst could be good. 

I do NOT want NFL yardage marker type yellow lines superimposed on holes, or any other high-tech crap, which, unfortunately, may be part of why a "new USGA cadre" chose Fox over NBC for a new contract.

Meanwhile, back to Pinehurst.

Frankly, I like the Mike Davis ideas of graduated rough, especially when combined with the risk-reward factor that multiple tee boxes offer. If you're Jim Furyk, you need to open, or focus, your mind a bit more for a potential 100-yard difference on a tee shot. 

And, maybe, since they're trying Pinehurst the "original way," and Chambers Bay is next year's venue, and Erin Hills in 2017 Whistling Straits might be considered for a US Open, after multiple PGA titles. In fact, the second course there, the Irish Course, might be an interesting alternative to the main course for such an event.

And, again, back to Pinehurst. 

My horse for the course is Rory McIlroy. My sleeper is Lee Westwood.

And, my wild hair.

Victor Dubuisson becomes the first Frenchman to win a golf major in modern times.

No sympathy for Phil Mickelson

First of all, I just have to "love" whichever golf scribe talked about the "working class people" at Merion for the US Open were supporting the non-working class Phil Mickelson.

First, Ardmore, Pa., home of Merion Golf Club, ain't close to "working class."

Second, "working class" people don't normally have the ducats for US Open tickets. (The whole issue of live sports tickets outpacing the rate of inflation is a separate topic all its own.)

Realistically, even a Jason Duffner isn't of "working class" background. That's part of why John Daly had his appeal for so many, though. Not for me; blow your life like that, you lose sympathy, too. It's too bad there's no Lee Trevino. Notah Begay, if he'd win a few, would have a chance at that.

Second of all, the dude's got money to fly back on a fractionally-owned private jet or whatever for his daughter's eighth-grade graduation. Yes, good family man, but back to the money. (The whole subject of proliferating graduations at different elementary grades is also a topic all its own.)

Third, Phil whiffed.

It began on 18 on Saturday. He should have hit his 2-wood, or whatever his longest non-driver wood in his bag was, off the tee and not that 4-wood. That leaves him an iron to the green, biting on the green more. He gains an extra stroke there, potentially. I assume that, with my scenario, he gets a par instead of his actual bogey.

Then, "Mr. Wedges" blows two wedge shots, the first badly at 13 on Sunday.

He caps it by criticizing the USGA for its length on one of the long par 3s when he knew the day might be windy, with the wind in his face on that hole, and he chose not to play driver Sunday, but rather, five wedges.

I actually was kind of liking the possibility of him winning, just to see if, with the career Grand Slam then within his sights, he'd change how he approached the British Open.

And, while I like to watch at least the four majors, I actually relate less to golfers as people than I do in most sports. They're definitely more conservative than the national average, among other things. The only blessing is that most of them don't claim Jeebus wanted them to win, when they do.

A couple of other thoughts.

Yeah, I thought Merion would be easier than it was, but I certainly wasn't alone.

That said, I did not join the majority of golf's punditocracy in saying this course shaped up well for Tiger Woods. Frankly, I expected him to have as much, if not more, problems with finding the rough as he actually did.

As for why Phil can't win at the US Open? Cracking wise about his wedge play aside, it's his putter, in my opinion. Yeah, he's won three times at Augusta, but the Masters, while it welcomes a good putter, doesn't require it, especially if one has a good short game.

I just don't think Phil is the greatest putter, or the greatest reader of greens in general.

Looking ahead to Muirfield and the British?

First, I don't expect Tiger to do well there, either. So, Tigerholics, too bad.

I'm going to go out on a limb. The first two majors have featured "nice guy" winners.

So, if you'll allow me two options, I'll take either Lee Westwood or Luke Donald there.

Initial #USOpen thoughts

Who will try to drive the tee on the high-risk, high-reward 10th hole?
Photo via US Open website

And, this is the golfing one; I'm not a tennis fan.

No, we won't get Tiger Woods and Sergio Garcia together, at least not for the opening round.

But, TW, Rory McElroy and Adam Scott will tee it up together instead.

How nice will TW and Rory be to each other? How much gamesmanship will there be? It is the first time the two have played together in a major.

And, speaking of, I think this is the first time Woods and Scott have played together in a major since Tiger canned Steve Williams and he moved over to loop for Scott. How icy are their greetings going to be?

(And, contra Sergio, I don't think Williams' comments of a year ago about using golf clubs in a certain way were racist; I think the "black" was purely descriptive, though it was unnecessary. The rest of the comment not only was not unnecessary, but hilarious.)

I would go with the trend and say that Matt Kuchar is a good bet to become the 14th first-time winner of a major out of the last 17 played. A precision ball-striker like a Mike Weir has some sort of shot, but the last few hole are monsters. I'm not sure somebody of his short length will ever birdie 18 at US Open ruggedness.

And, I will venture that we see at least two eagles, and at least two double-bogeys or worse, on the high-risk, high-reward 10th hole.

Update, June 10: Now, about those scores? After the Andrea-related rains in the area? When the course won't be a normal level of dry until the first round?

The USGA is talking a great game about what a challenge this will be, etc., etc., and putting its best face and foot forward.

But, let's be honest.

There's likely to be a Murder at Merion, of Merion.

And, so, Robert Lusetich of Fox Sports is wrong, and not for the first time, when he says it's about more than distance.

Winning score, with chances of more showers Tuesday and Wednesday, and who knows after we start on Thursday, will be double digits below par.

Take that 10th hole. I can now, especially on Thursday and Friday, bomb it hard enough to clear the front bunker AND a bit left to make sure that, should I go long, it won't be in the far bunker. Why? Especially if I've got the distance to make that an easy 3-wood, I know the green's going to slow it a lot.

Also, if the fairways are slow, shorter hitters will get killed on that monster at 18. They could be hitting a looong second shot. And on that 621-yard par 5? For the shortest hitters, depending on wind and such, their third shot could be what, a 7 or 8 iron, not a wedge? That said, slow greens will still negate some of that disadvantage.

Flip side? Soggy rough on the first two days will be rougher rough. If, whether at 10 or elsewhere, you're going to gamble, the risk side will also be higher.

Actually, per the Lusetich piece, Cypress Point at Pebble Beach would make more sense as a short course. June in California is almost guaranteed to be rain-free, so you know in advance that you can toughen up the course and it will stay that way.

Update, June 13: Well, as of right now, I may be wrong on the scores issue. Phil Mickelson was 1 of just 2 people in the clubhouse under par, with about half the rounds complete on Thursday. Yeah, there's been two eagles on 10, but 18 is playing 3/4 of a stroke above par.

Update, June 14: Looking at players continue to back up, it looks like the cut line could easily be +6. What's happening? First, despite the rain, it looks like greens are still faster than expected. Second, the fairways are cut longer than typical at most majors, or indeed at a lot of courses in general. Merion's crew is spinning this as "sustainability," but the real spin is that a longer fairway means less bounce and roll, so shorter drives, and also means a bit less spin on second shots. In other words, the longer cuts on the fairway, half-inch rather than quarter-inch, are another element in length-proofing the place.

Beyond all the other stuff, we also appear to have a new Tiger Woods story. Injured wrist? If it's true, and he's far enough off the lead after the second round, will he do a WD?

And, speaking of second rounds, there's an outside chance, perhaps, that everybody gets through half the course today. It's going to be close, we know that. That means second round should be completed by 11 local time Saturday, allowing good time for pin placement changes and such, and yet, a relatively unrushed third round.

Could a golf major come to Dallas?

First, it's interesting that the long-proposed idea of a championship-level golf course near Loop 12 and I-45 may finally come to fruition. Could help broader development issues in the area.

It's even more interesting that the Byron Nelson could move there from Los Colinas, starting in 2019. Will there be a bidding war?

More interesting yet is that AT&T is touting the idea of the course hosting a major championship at some point. Well, The Masters ain't leaving Augusta, Ga., and The Open will stay across the pond.

So, that leaves the U.S. Open, in June, or the PGA, in August.

Yeah, I know both have been played as far south as Southern Hills, in Tulsa, but, I'm kind of thinking the PGA and USGA ain't really looking fondly at the idea of golf in the potential summer sweatbox of Dallas.

Usually, the humidity has cut down in August; there, you're just facing the potential of an ongoing heat wave. So, the PGA is a bit more likely.

The U.S. Open? If the spring rainy season carries into early June, then gets followed by a heat wave right near solstice time, I'm sure golfers don't really want that.

KUDOS to NBC on "godless" pregolf Pledge

Before the start of the U.S. Open golf tournament's final round, NBC ran a special video segment of patriotic images and previous tournament winners, with a Pledge of Allegiance voiceover.

One "problem," which Red State wingnuttia immediately noticed. The Pledge was the original, pre-1954, pre-Red Scare version without the added phrase of "under god."

Here it is:



Unfortunately, corporate media NBC/Comcast then felt the need to apologize for this.

Tiger, shut up

Here's a great post-U.S. Open column.

Did Philly Mick choke at Bethpage?

I’d agree with Jeff Passan; that’s a big yes.

Beyond choking itself, as Passan notes, you have his “oh, well” statements after he was done.

Then, as I note, you have his pledge every year to do more in the way of conditioning, then by summer, we see that he’s never come close to matching Tiger, or Vijay Singh, or others, in that effort.

Yeah, he should have half a dozen majors, at least.

But, as I already told a friend of mine a year ago… after his Whiff at Winged Foot, he’ll never win another. And you can make book on that.

Published on ESPN!

Well, not "published" in that sense, but the limerick I e-mailed to Jason Sobel's U.S. Open liveblog:

As rains poured anew at Bethpage
Conspiracists fell into black rage.
Would Tiger not win?
The golf fix was in!
Methinks they lost a big betting wage.

Tiger and U.S. Open get overhyped

First, contrary to an e-mailer to Jason Sobel’s ESPN blog, it was NOT the greatest U.S. Open in 43 years.

Second, Pat Forde, you’re wrong on this, too, especially when you say this was “arguably the greatest golf tournament ever.”

Did you forget about the 1986 Masters? Or the 1997 Masters, arguably? Or the 1999 U.S. Open. Or the 1975 Masters? That's just in 10 seconds thought off the top of my head.

Beyond the sentimentality of Jack’s rally in 1986, the 1975 Masters is NON-arguably the greatest golf tournament of the last 50 years, if not longer.

(And, for all the drama, Jack earned a “measly” $40K for his win. I loved the NBC graphic Sunday saying Tiger had made $82 million on his career. With all of his majors top-10s, Jack would have earned well over $100 million, maybe $150 million.)

Also, Woods’ was not the best injury-ridden performance of all time.

But, in my estimation, neither was Willis Reed’s or Kirk Gibson’s. Reed played half of the game 7 of the 1970 Finals, if that much. Gibby’s pinch-hit homer was his only at-bat in the 1988 Series.

The Injury Ironman? No competition, it’s Jack Youngblood.

My U.S. Open thoughts after round two

Looking at the scoreboard, it’s probably Tiger’s to lose. He can grind out two more rounds on a still-sore knee, then take the whole pre-British summer off if he hurts that bad. Then, he can take off again until the PGA.

But, “can” doesn’t necessarily mean “will.” So, let’s look at the rest of the field.

Phil’s out of it at plus-4 and seven off the lead, and yes, while he might have some chance, I think this was his “last, best hope,” and Master Samwise ain’t carrying his bags this weekend. I think he’s going to have to rethink the idea of not carrying a driver if he wants any shot at a comeback, too.

The Big Easy? Boy, wouldn’t this be a comeback win for Els?

Karlsson — two subpar rounds, playing steady. D Love III could have a last gasp? Jimenez has potential. And, Ogilvy is up there. If Harrington had not had that 78 in the first round, I’d give him more of a shot, but maybe he can make up six strokes. Maybe Goosen can. Luke Donald could break through, too. Westwood has never done much at majors.

And, that's it as far as people with realistic chances, in my book.

I’m still not ready to bet Tiger against the field, so I’ll put one red on the Big Easy to win his third U.S. Open.