Put a dent in #Stlcards hopes for 2013? Carp out for year, likely career

The gutty Chris Carpenter , who rehabbed without deer antler spray to make it back for the St. Louis Cardinals' 2012 postseason run, may have just thrown his last pitch.

The nerve issues that led him to  undergo surgery to remove a rib last year are back again.

So, what's this mean for 2013?

First, Adam Wainwright is going to have to build on last year's return from Tommy John surgery. He was already more of the ace, or getting there, before he went down. Now he has to be, not just in pitching skill but in pitching staff leadership.

Second, the Cardinals' young arms — Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller —  are supposed to be good for a few years. Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch agrees. They're going to have to prove it now.

Third, assuming Waino meets the challenge, John Mozeliak is going to have to decide how much to open the wallet for him after this year.

Fourth, this also raises the issue of what to do with Jake Westbrook.

And, it also, in my mind, raises again the issue of possibly offering David Freese, along with any of those "young guns" as necessary, in a deal for C.C. Sabathia, which I have already blogged about.

Without any changes, we'll say the Cards are losing 3 wins (he had a 3.5 WAR in 2011) off of what might have been hoped, and possibly a couple more indirectly.

#Pujols wears a Halo: #Stlcards fans, team try to adapt

OK, it's officially official, no photoshopping needed. I didn't link his FB page, for those who don't follow it, but did a screen grab of ESPN video from the Los Angeles Angeles of Anaheim and Ticket Turnstiles introducing Albert Pujols today. He's a Angel.

Fans, and fan bloggers, are trying to deal with this in various ways.

On the on-the-field side, one suggests standing pat. Bad idea. With Allan Craig out for some time, things hopeful but not guaranteed on Adam Wainwright, the injury history of Chris Carpenter and all of us still somewhat unsure of just what Jaime Garcia's ceiling is, doing nothing, especially on the batting side (the pitching side is deep and has plenty of prospects in the minors) is not an option.

What IS? Well, Jimmy Rollins is likely to stay in Philly. And, if he wants five years, isn't the answer anyway. Carlos Beltran actually might be, but ... only if the base contract is no more than two years, unless a three-year contract is cheap. If he wants any big money, I wouldn't do it for more than two years. (I'm OK with one, even two, option years.)

Smart could have been resigning Rafael Furcal. Dumb is resigning him ... at $14M for two years. If you're going to nickel-and-dime on Pujols, then you shouldn't waste some of the saved nickels on another contract that's iffy. (Of course, that means Rollins is officially out of the picture now.)

Per Yahoo's free-agent tracker, Michael Cuddyer is another option. So is Josh Willingham. Maybe Jason Kubel. Ryan Ludwick? Only if cheap.

And, that's the bottom line. Pay low where warranted. Look ahead to next year's free agents if you recognize this year is a "gap plugging" year. But, don't insult Cards' fans intelligence by doing nothing, on the one hand, or making cheap bad deals on the other.

Next, by June, wrap up Yadier Molina. Anything reasonable for a great defensive and pitch-calling catcher with a reasonable bat in a pitcher-friendly ballpark is worth it.

Oh, and by the end of 2012, figure out what David Freese is worth, determine if he can avoid nagging injury, and wrap him up for at least the medium term. Determine how healthy Waino is by the end of 2012, too, and see if you can't wrap him up now. But, don't try to lowball him, either.

Off the field? Threatening the Pujols statue? Giving Cards jerseys away for free? Dumb. Move on. But, give yourself some honest reflections, too. This list of Pujols first and lasts as a Redbird is a good starting point.

At the same time, I'm willing to agree, whether from Post-Dispatch insider Bernie Miklasz or SI's Jeff Pearlman, a Pujols ax-grinder, that Pujols was a "load." He did, per the World Series game 2 incident, get "La Russa good old boy" treatment. He was a prima donna. Some of his claimed religiosity may be hypocritical, or at least self-serving.

Crap: It's the Angels for Pujols

Albert Pujols hits his record-tying third home run in Game 3 of the 2010 World Series./From Yahoo Sports

To ESPN, it may have been unexpected. But, I had the Los Angeles Angels of I-5 as a prime suitor a year ago, and didn't waver in that, even after the Vernon Wells trade.

So, not totally unexpected in these quarters, to see Albert Pujols head to the Los Angeles Angels for 10 years and a whopping $260 million.

That said, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that, allowing for Florida having no state income tax, the Marlins' last offer was technically higher. (Why didn't the Rangers use Texas not having an income tax to get in the chase themselves?)

First, even with Kendrys Morales, even with signing Wells, I said Angels owners Arte Moreno still had money to burn. That's why the Angels were listed on my poll at right.

If you want details, the Angels have several contracts that run out soon, including Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu after 2012. (Or the Haloes apparently have a buyout now on Abreu's contract; that said, for $9M, he might be OK still.) Some of their money will go to resigning Dan Haren or Ervin Santana in all likelihood. (I don't expect both to be kept, though.) Wells is around for two more years, but, with a deeper lineup and less pressure, may be come an acceptable 3.5 WAR guy for the rest of that contract. Unless Morales can bounce back and find a new position, he's gone. That frees up money for a midgrade outfielder and a midgrade middle infielder.

As for finding positions for people, we all see that Morales didn't bounce back last year from his 2010 broken leg. So, there's not such a "logjam" for the Angels after all, potentially.

Second, it's a team with a history of winning and a chance to win again, now. Mike Sciosia is a better manager than Ron Washington, and, in the AL West, Jon Daniels will likely regret not making a move. That's doubly true with the Halos taking C.J. Wilson away from him.

Speaking of, per that ESPN story linked up top:

Asked whether life in the American League West had just gotten a little more fun, Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine retorted: "How liberal is your definition of the word 'fun?'

"We just saw him for seven games [in the World Series]," Levine went on. "I think it's safe to say we haven't exactly figured him out yet."

Third, with the Dodgers still in limbo, now was the time for Moreno to strike. I can easily see the Angels drawing 3.5 million next year or more, or near max of 3.65 million in their park.

Add in: Higher TV $$ on next local contract (the Angels were already negotiating a new deal with Fox); Pujols' Angels uniform and other marketing sales; possible hike in ticket prices, etc. Trust me, Moreno will get at least $3-4M a year of this contract back.

Fourth, as far as Pujols' performance, the Angels' ballpark is at least as hitter-friendly as Busch. Per ESPN, new Busch was a smidgen better the last two years, but before that, Angels Stadium was a lot better, probably due to a better lineup. Give him an injury free year, the AL, hitting in parks like Arlington, Boston and New York, and an occasional "rest" day at DH, and I expect his stats to go up. Could be good news for him in career counting stats.

Fifth, let's look at the Cardinals more. As I called it more than a year ago, the "insurance plan" comes into play for the Cards as Lance Berkman shifts to first base. (And, some other Cards bloggers laughed at me a year ago when I said that.)

Sixth, my comment that, based on ticket sales vs. possible dropoff, the Cards had money to do a deal even in this range? Especially if either Adam Wainwright isn't back 100 percent or Chris Carpenter has an "on for injuries" year, adding in the seriousness of Allan Craig's injury, and the Cards lose 200K fans this year.

Seventh, as a Cards fan, it's sad. I don't know, other than straight dollars, what Pujols felt he wasn't getting from the Cardinals, since the offer a year ago reportedly included a small piece of the franchise. Maybe La Russa's retirement was a factor. Maybe he wanted a split marketing deal on milestone memorabilia. Maybe he felt he wasn't being stroked enough. Maybe he felt agent Dan Lozano wasn't being stroked enough. After the Matt Holliday contract, I think all of this is true.

ESPN weighs in, indirectly, on that. It's clear the Cards weren't budging much higher. If Mo/Bill DeWitt refused to modify Pujols' old contract after the Holliday signing, they've reaped the whirlwind.

The Cardinals had planned to talk with Pujols' agent one more time Thursday before heading home. But sources told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney that the Cardinals' latest offer was for nine years and a little less than $200 million. That would have made him the fourth-highest paid first baseman. With the Angels deal, he is tops.

One source who spoke with Pujols' camp Wednesday came away with the impression the two sides were farther apart than had been widely portrayed earlier in the day.

Penny wise and pound foolish in St. Louis, perhaps.

Eighth, on the assumption that Prince Fielder is gone from Milwaukee, and NOT to the Cubs, Cincinnati is the default NL Central favorite for 2012 in my book. And, there's a one-in-three chance the Cardinals don't get the wild card, even. (The second WC doesn't happen until 2013.) Add in the fact that Berkman's just signed for one more year, and has indicated he could decide to retire after that, and the Cardinals, while pitching-rich in the minors, may find themselves scuffing and struggling for some time.

Now, some reflections along with analysis, and a look at the St. Louis reaction, below the fold:

#StlCards re-sign Berkman; Pujols meaning?

The AP reports that the St. Louis Cardinals have announced they have re-signed OF/1B Lance Berkman. And per the story, everybody is wondering: Does this make it more, or less likely they re-sign Albert Pujols?

I would say the tea leaves haven't steeped enough to tell; let's wait until the offseason.

But, not to offer no comment.

I'd say it makes it easier to take a pass on The Machine IF that's the team's choice. Note this comment from John Mozeliak:

Mozeliak said Berkman's contract left the Cardinals flexibility to get a deal done with Pujols.

"Getting into payroll and where we're going to be, I know that's a hot topic for you gentleman, but it's not real relevant at the moment," Mozeliak said. "A lot of factors go into that and where we see that going will really depend on how things trend this offseason."

However, Pujols is making it harder to "pass." He's got his BA back above .300 and is just three  two RBIs short of 100. He's already got "his" 30 HRs, putting him on pace to continue his streak of .300/30/100 years. Except for a 99-run season in 2007, he would have the same streak in runs scored. And, at the same time, Berkman says he's comfortable with one-year contracts:

"I'm at a point in my career where I'm OK going one year at a time," Berkman said. "I don't know how much longer I want to play or that I'll be able to play at a high level.

Translation, if not obvious: Don't lean too much on him.

I think the Cards have to offer a minimum of six years, not counting options, and one year, at least, that's better than that of Alex Rodriguez  if they want to re-sign Pujols Getting Berkman relatively cheaply, even if just a one-year deal, and inking a relatively cheap two-year extension with Chris Carpenter makes that possible, while letting them take a longer look at the middle infield (and NO, re-signing Furcal is not it).

Six years, $160M plus two mutual option years, with second year, say, at a flat $30M? Would Pujols do that? I'd say 50-50, at least. Will Mo offer that? Certainly not to start, and I'd say less than 50-50 as a final offer.

Meanwhile, back to Mo's comments. Was he sending any other message to Pujols, like "it's OK to negotiate in midseason" or ... "we're ready to deal, are you" ...  or "this should be a signal as to our 'numbers' " ... or anything else?

#StlCards: Does Carpenter signing help or hurt #Pujols staying?

First, let me say I like the deal the St. Louis Cardinals made with Chris Carpenter. Rolling his $11 million option year for 2012 into a two-year, $21M deal provides stability and depth on the pitching staff as the Birds wait to see how well Adam Wainwright comes back next year. And, given the shakiness of Jaime Garcia, the crappiness of Jake Westbrook and other issues, the pitching staff could use both stability and depth.

Also, it lets the team boot either Westbrook or Kyle Lohse out of the rotation. Or trade whichever one has more trade value.

As ESPN notes, this deal also impacts the possibility, or likelihood of resigning Albert Pujols, and also, to a degree, Lance Berkman.

And, ESPN is thinking on the lines of what I did this spring, when Fat Elvis was picked up. The team could decide not to pay big for The Machine and move Berkman to 1B. That assumes the team guesstimates a possible fanbase hit, in terms of ticket sales, would be less than a Pujols contract hit.

But, with Pujols making a hard late push to continue his .300/30 HR/100 RBI streak of years, the "he's washed/washing up" argument appears out the door, vs., at least in part, the "he was pressing" part. Don't forget, he was possibly not only trying to prove himself contract worthy, but pick up the slack of the team missing Wainwright.

Beyond the ticket sales vs. contract financials of a popular face, assuming the Cards don't re-sign Pujols and at the same time don't pull a Kansas City and sit on all the money, who do they add? The middle-infield free agent crop is iffy, and that's the biggest need besides more good pitching arms.

The Birds could, I guess, make a run at theoretically mid-priced Jimmy Rollins, if they don't re-sign Pujols. And, if they don't, even if they do re-sign Berkman, I don't think that's enough to halfway mollify the fan base, or, even with the Brewers facing their own free agent issues, to be "content" in the NL Central.

Or maybe the Cards can spend money on getting a better manager than Tony the Pony. I totally agree with ESPN's "overmanaging" assessment.

Speaking of, the Chicago Sun-Times' reporting of what is more wishful thinking, even, than rumor is interesting, namely, the idea that the Cubbies will try to sign the triumvirate of former Cards' GM Walt Jocketty, followed by Pujols and La Russa, is interesting. To you Cubs fans: Two out of three wouldn't be bad.

Jocketty, overall, was better than John Mozeliak is now, for a number of reasons. One of them is that he wasn't as much a La Russa pushover as Mo is. And, he was a good GM overall. Assuming Theo Epstein and Billy Beane aren't magically available (and how dumb is it, in his case with the A's, for ownership to give a GM an ownership stake?) it would be hard to do better than Jocketty. For bolstering the lineup and the fan base, it would be hard to do better than Pujols.

You can do better than La Russa, though. Giving Quade another year's chance would be better. Beyond the over-managing, Cubs fans, you'd probably get a twist on Lou Pinella, an elderly manager who burns out after a couple of years.

Carpenter gone from Cardinals?

Adam Wainwright's need for Tommy John surgery has already been projected to affect how likely the Cardinals are to shell out money to resign Albert Pujols.

Wainwright might not be back until the middle of 2012 and not be back to 100 percent effectiveness until 2013. That would mean the first year of a new Pujols contract is unlikely to show dividends in the postseason. So, management might engage in loss-cutting and rebuilding mode. Trades made during the year this year could be one sign of that.

But, a third player also may be affected by all of this.

Chris Carpenter knows he could be traded if the team doesn't compete.

I've already expressed my guess before, that the Cards will NOT pick up Carp's $15M option for 2012. I could see the team making a two-year offer of about $11-12M a year, with a third-year team option of about $10M. Nothing more than that, though.

But, unless the injury bug hits elsewhere in the division, on paper at this point, the Cards are No. 3 behind Reds and Brewers. If that plays out in reality, it's all a matter of how soon the Cards fall off the pace, and how much, before they look at roster moves.

On the other hand, if the Cards could ink him to an extension of the sort I just mentioned, and he seems healthy enough, they'll certainly hold on to him, I think.

Carpenter waits on Pujols — and his own age

Waiting in the wings for the St. Louis Cardinals after the team makes a decision on whether or not to resign Albert Pujols? One-time Cardinal ace and still 1A starter Chris Carpenter.

Carpenter's contract also runs out after this year, albeit with a $15M club option for 2012 that ain't getting picked up, not at that price. Carpenter discusses his situation here.

Two years at $20-22M total? Third club option year at $8-9M? That sounds about right to me.

Cards pitching looks good going into spring training

Per one St. Louis Post-Dispatch report, the ace of the St. Louis Cardinals staff, Adam Wainwright, is not worried about his elbow. I really wasn't, either, but it's good to hear. And Jake Westbrook is ready to start throwing off a mound.

Speaking of elbows, a P-D roundtable expects Jaime Garcia to avoid any sophomore slump this year.

Now, if Kyle Lohse can find something in the tank, although I'm certainly not holding my breath there, we've got a great rotation. Or, good trade bait on either Lohse or Westbrook.

(No news is good news on the Chris Carpenter front, I figure.)

More seriously, do you trade any starters? With Lohse and Carpenter, especially, there's financial issues for the team. I'm not just talking Albert Pujols; I'm also talking the cost of signing Wainwright to a contract that will befit his pitching status. There's also the question, related, of whether the team picks up Carp's option for next year. Unless he's lights-out, I'd say no; either earlier or later, the team makes a two-, maybe three-year offer, unless this year's team falls apart; then Carpenter becomes trade bait.

Or, it could work the other way around; anybody expect Wainwright or Garcia could become available if the Cards are doing well, but are wanting a middle infield boost at midseason.