Dear #BigOil in #Houston — you have a self-inflicted problem

Actually, you have about 4 feet of self-inflicted problem. That's how much sea level rise is already, apparently, irreversible due to global warming's effect on the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Now, Big Oil is everywhere. It's in San Antonio with the Eagle Ford shale play. As the previous presidential administration of Mutt and Jeff showed, it was in abundance in Dallas.

So why pick on Houston?

Well, I could have picked on Port Arthur, or Beaumont, for similar reasons.

Here's why. Many places along the Gulf Coast are contending with subsidence from oil/gas extraction and groundwater pumping as well as beach erosion.

And, some of those could be at or a touch below sea level already. Indeed, some parts of older Houston, with a longer history of both water and oil extraction, may be at current sea level, or a touch below.

Houston area after a 5-foot sea level rise/NYT graphic

In other words, parts of Houston are in a bowl. Perhaps not as bad as New Orleans' lower Ninth Ward, but bad enough. At left is the scenario in Houston with a sea level rise of just about what the West Antarctic meltdown guarantees.

Other than the Ship Channel, but, schadenfreude, home of the refineries, Houston itself isn't in trouble. Galveston is, though.

And, while the West Antarctic meltdown may take as long as 200 years, ice elsewhere at both poles will also continue to melt.

And, this is just with calm seas, whether a prosperous voyage is also included or not, courtesy of Beethoven's muse or anything else.

Let's add in another thought, also from NOLA.

Katrina. Remember, Houstonians, the somewhat similar degree of pants-shitting happening down there over the precise course of Hurricane Ike?

OK, bring on another Ike, with that shoreline above, and give it a worst-course scenario. I'll not paint a totally black picture; Ike 2.0 will be kept at no larger than Category 3 on hurricane strength.

Anyway, Galveston gets obliterated.

The refineries in the Ship Channel get flooded out of operation for two weeks. The lowest parts of the city of Houston become a bowl of mosquito-infested water for the same length of time.

Houston area after a 12-foot sea level rise/NYT graphic

And, that's just with a rise of a little bit above four feet. The New York Times says the loss of these ice sheets could destabilize others enough to make the ultimate rise hit 10 feet or so.

Add in rising sea level from warmer ocean temperatures and other things, and you get something like the 12-foot rise pictured at left. Goodbye, Galveston Island. The entire Ship Channel is also underwater.

And, without Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula as giant breakwaters, Houston itself stares straight into the teeth of hurricanes hitting the upper Texas Gulf Coast.

How's them apples?

Big Oil doesn't care, or it continues the denialism. That's even as it finds it easier to spend big bucks spreading the denialism rather than doing something. And, note to John Roberts, the alleged "umpire" chief justice who needs to buy MLB's instant replay machinery to check his calls — it's this type of "dark money" spending which is the ultimate philosophy driving campaign finance today. If you can't see corruption, it's because you don't want to see corruption.

Anyway, Big Oil and friends has already helped guarantee this 4-foot rise is baked in. Unavoidable. Contra nutbars in the Senate like Ted Cruz, Jim Imhofe, and Tom Coburn, there's no god magically smiling on the USofA to stop this, either.

That said, Ted Cruz's grandson and Pat Robertson's great-grandson will someday blame this on teh gayz or something. Or else they'll claim it's a sign of the Apocalypse. But, sorry, there will be no god magically rapturing you out of your flooded home, either.

As for Big Oil? What do you expect from an industry in cahoots with the railroad industry that has workers cleaning out tanker cars in abominably unsafe conditions?

Reporters to be paid by the page read at new #NOLA?

There's been speculation for several years within the newspaper world that some newspaper might eventually, in its online version, base at least a part of reporters' salaries based on how many page hits their stories get.

And, now, this job ad at the "new" New Orleans Times-Picayune makes me wonder if that day isn't now upon us.

When I see the word "metrics" for a position like this, especially with a newspaper that has just decided to become a non-daily in its hardcover operations, that’s the first thought that comes to mind. This line from the job's description only reinforces that:

As the Staff Performance Measurement and Development Specialist, you will be responsible for developing and implementing performance objectives to keep members of the team motivated and our organization on target and productive. Working closely with the Director of Digital Operations in this high profile, consultative role, you will leverage your strong knowledge of content objectives and data analysis tools to shape actionable goals and metrics for performance. 

Let’s translate and unpack that, while noting that, per the job ad, this is a newly-created position.

Here's what it really means:

1. The person in this role will monitor page views.
2. The person in this role will use tools like Google Analytics to see where such page views are coming from, for different stories, different reporters, etc.
3. The person in this role will, in conjuction with the director of digital operations, discuss how to use SEO keywords in the body of the story and SEO search population boxes, Twitter-trending words in headlines, etc., to maximize page hits.
4. The person in this role will “train,” that is, push reporters and online editors toward doing this.
5. The person in this role will use these metrics to “motivate” the “team,” whomever the team is, that is, will use metrics to tell reporters and editors, if you’re not on target, you’re not here.

In other words, NOLA is now going to be Demand Media. Or maybe even something worse.

That, in turn, explains why there's still no paywall at NOLA. Because they know that nobody would want to pay.

Enjoy!

And, mourn.

Did NOLA dodge a bullet?

Gustav downgraded to Category 2 just before landfall. (But, remember, Katrina did, too. The story of a Category 3 Katrina hitting New Orleans isn’t true, especially out of the mouth of Bush’s FEMA or the Army Corps of Engineers, which had its funding for levee repairs cut by both Bush AND Clinton administrations. (Don’t forget that.)

That said, back to Gustav. The max storm surge appears it will stay below 15 feet, which means levees will not be topped by a surge taller then them. That said, some could still be breached, of course. And, Gustav has widened, along with the bit of degredation.

Did NOLA dodge a bullet?

Gustav downgraded to Category 2 just before landfall. (But, remember, Katrina did, too. The story of a Category 3 Katrina hitting New Orleans isn’t true, especially out of the mouth of Bush’s FEMA or the Army Corps of Engineers, which had its funding for levee repairs cut by both Bush AND Clinton administrations. (Don’t forget that.)

That said, back to Gustav. The max storm surge appears it will stay below 15 feet, which means levees will not be topped by a surge taller then them. That said, some could still be breached, of course.

Gustav update: NOLA will get hit bad, it appears

Location, tide, high storm surge could collude

As of late last night, it looked to me like the eye was set to make landfall somewhere between Morgan City and Houma, close enough to New Orleans to do serious damage with the trailing east-side winds.

Also, landfall will be near high tide, with a spring tide due to the moon near new.

A storm surge of more than 15 feet is possible. Say goodbye to your westside levees.

So, if it is as destructive as Katrina, should we (on the federal dime, to any degree), rebuild NOLA? I say no.

Beyond that, to riff on the other geographically-focused national disaster to which parts of America are prone, we don’t have federal earthquake insurance. It’s high time for Washington to get out of flood insurance, IMO, for both fiscal and environmental reasons.

At the least, require all rebuilding in NOLA, as part of federal flood insurance checks, to be done above sea level. If that means much of NOLA becomes a giant cow pasture, so be it.

New Orleans is effed, just effed, it seems — DON’T rebuild

Here’s the Gustav potential storm surge and here’s how vulnerable a worst-case scenario is. (Via Wired.)

And, with the latest projections being that Gustav will still be Category 4 at landfall, and will hit just west enough of the Crescent City itself to give New Orleans the full-on brunt of its more dangerous east-side winds, this is all likely to happen.

And, with us about at new moon, rather than first or last quarter, high tide will probably run pretty strong, to boot.

Soo… this is not a black/white, liberal/conservative, rich/poor or Bush FEMA/Clinton FEMA issue, at all, but…

We should NOT rebuild New Orleans.

PERIOD.

Especially if global warming and climate change presages longer-lasting hurricanes and a longer-lasting season, we should not rebuild New Orleans. Because, at the same time it faces these climate-change waters, the city itself continues to sink from groundwater pumping, and continues to lose wetland space in large part due to loss of siltation from the channelization of the Mississippi.

It’s time to move, and time to move on.

Beyond that, to riff on the other geographically-focused national disaster to which parts of America are prone, we don’t have federal earthquake insurance. It’s high time for Washington to get out of flood insurance, IMO, for both fiscal and environmental reasons.

At the least, require all rebuilding in NOLA, as part of federal flood insurance checks, to be done above sea level. If that means much of NOLA becomes a giant cow pasture, so be it.

NOLA – 17th Street Canal levee leaking

Oops.

The Army Corps of Engineers claims “no oops.” I’m surprised it isn’t claiming that it is creating a new wetland or something.

Cost? Not quite priceless. Just billions of dollars.

Plus, the reason for the leak could mean other levees aren’t so hot, either.