Ted Williams and Yaz are Red Sox nonpersons

Who would say such an Orwellian thing?

Well, the president and CEO of the Boston Red Sox, Sam Kennedy, that's who:

"David Ortiz is the most important player to ever wear a Red Sox uniform."

There you go.

First, as I blogged late last year, when the BBWAA ballots officially came out, David Ortiz is NOT a Hall of Famer. Certainly not a first-ballot one. And, it goes beyond whether the roided or not. Park-inflated stats at Fenway is why we have things like OPS+ and WAR. His 141 career OPS+ is good but not great for a 1B/DH type. (Albert Pujols is still at 144 after a much longer career and decline and Miguel Cabrera is at 145.)

But, let's go to the "nonpersons" and that statement.

Note who's missing? Well, obviously, Teddy Ballgame, Ted Williams, the Kid, the Splinter. Two-time Triple Crown winner. Arguably the best batter who ever played the game of baseball.

Boston legend in so many ways.

Best player to ever wear that uniform. And, yes, that at least arguably includes two very prominent other players, one entirely from the deadball era and the other with baseball's best career WAR. Certainly the best with the Sox alone.

And Carl Yastrzemski, last guy to post a 12-WAR season. (Ortiz never had a single 7-WAR season, another reason I don't consider him a Hall of Famer.)

Who else is being forgotten?

Well, it's not the uni he's most famous for, but?

Babe Ruth.

Others who didn't play only with Boston, but neither did Ortiz?

Pedro Martinez.

Roger Clemens.

Wade Boggs.

Those, at a minimum, rank higher.

Cy Young.

Tris Speaker.

All of them, in my book, are both better and more important. Well, the importance factor is arguable with Boggs and Speaker, but otherwise? Babe? Important to the history of baseball, the history of the Sawks, and focus of "the curse of the Bambino." Pedro injected new fuel into the Sox-Yankees rivalry. Clemens? Important for injecting other things. Cy Young? Just has an award named after him. 

Could probably even slip the likes of a Dwight Evans in there on the better side, whether or not more important. Maybe even Fred Lynn? That's a maybe because he's behind Papi on WAR, but on importance? He was Rookie of the Year and MVP the same season, and that was WS year 1975.

The noxious Curt Schilling, bloody sock and all. Surely more important. And better.

Quo vadis Albert Pujols: The Angels view, the Red Sox angle, the Cardinals fan view, and ONE outside possibility

With word out that the Angels will designate for assignment Albert Pujols, aka Phat Albert, aka The Machine, as I blogged at the time, likely leading to his unconditional release, what's next?

First, it WILL be his unconditional release. For anybody to seriously pick him up off waivers, it would have to be an AL team flush with money, if they can't get the Haloes to eat most the contract, and to be thin at DH, at a minimum, and maybe there and 1B both. Not happening. The BoSox are fine at DH with J.D. Martinez, although they have a dog's breath at first with Bobby Dalbec listed as tops of the depth chart. The Yankees are loaded at DH with Giancarlo Stanton and OK at first with DJ LeMahieu there and Luke Voit about to return. The Jays are solid at both with Vlad Guerrero Jr. and George Springer. On paper, the stRangers and Astros could both use some degree of help, but I don't see either one shelling out money, certainly not the Arlingtonites.

Yeah, it's possible that he clears waivers AND some team then picks him up for the MLB minimum. But ... is he going to go there, when he'll likely play no more than he would have for the Angels? 

Pujols says he still wants to play. The Angels essentially honored his desire after it being clear there's no room in the inn in Anaheim.

As for the Angels cutting him? It boiled down to whether they're better with Taylor Ward in RF and Jared Walsh at 1B rather than Walsh playing halfway out of position in right and Pujols at first. And, the answer is likely the former, and Pujols doesn't want to ride pine, with Shohei Ohtani ahead of him at DH, too, he would ride plenty. Neither did A-Rod at his end.

Per the top dogs in the AL, if he clears waivers?

It WOULD be weird to see him wearing RedSox togs or Rangers ones, per World Series history. Would be weird in a Stros uni, too, of course. 

And, it's only going to be the AL. He's not playing in the NL, where, except for interleague, he has to play first on a regular basis. Now, that said, I guess AL teams who really think he might have gas in the tank could get in a bidding war about the MLB minimum for his services. He HAS had a long reputation of starting slow, and a week ago, was around .240 on batting and over .700 on OPS.

Returning to St. Louis would be nice and sentimental, and I know Cards fans are saying, "YES" in many cases. But, he's not going ahead of Paul Goldschmidt, not when they also have Matt Carpenter as a backup 1B. So, he'd be riding as much or more pine than in Anaheim. (I'd be fine with him doing the one-day contract and retirement scenario.)

So, my guess is? He clears waivers, and Boston approaches him first, if  anybody does.

(I originally had just "Sox" in the header, but after old manager Tony La Russa said "no room at the inn" on Chicago's South Side, I thought I'd better be more specific. I don't doubt the Pony is right on Albert's desire to play; I do doubt that there's as much in the Machine's gas tank as Pujols claims or that La Russa thinks he's correct in claiming.)

Let us scratch some other ideas. Yes, Phat Albert would be better than Miguel Cabrera, but he's NOT going to Detroit, contra a poster on my original piece. I mean, Detroit is just hoping not to be relegated to AAA level. (Oh, sorry, this isn't the English Premier League.)

Contra this Fansided nuttery (Isn't all of it at Fansided?) which claims Miggy is up there with Pujols and Trout as the three best players of the last 30 years (Albert's WAA is as high as Cabrera's WAR), he's also NOT going to the Reds. Joey Votto will be back in a month and it's an NL team. Also, showing the typical Fansided posting of clickbait, he's not going to the Chisox as La Russa already said so.

The only reasonable place for him? AL, contender, and need? More reasonable than Boston, and where the "veteran leader" might also play?

The Rays. Austin Meadows and Yoshi Tsutsugo are both horrible at DH. Horrible.

Doubling down on his previous Fansided stupidity, Sean Millerick NOW thinks that Albert could sit out the rest of this year, get "recharged," be signed by some team next year AND hit 700 HRs. That's something he's not done in a single season since 2016. He otherwise repeats the stupidity of his previous post, and thereby reinforces stereotypes that baseball-knowledgeable people have about Fansided.

Contra this guy, NO the Rockies are not a landing spot. Again, Pujols, even if he warmed up a modest amount, does NOT have the bat to offset his limitations at 1B on a regular basis. The Royals aren't as bad off at DH as the Rays, or as bad off as he claims. Cleveland? See Colorado.

Beyond that? Colorado's already out of it. Seriously. That loaded of a division? The Royals aren't that bad off, but they're not good. Cleveland would be, if Albert wants to play with a winner, the best of those three. I could halfway buy it as an option while still thinking Tampa's a better bet for both him and a team.

Yay-sayers of him going to a place like Cleveland, or even an NL team, may point that for 2018-21, he played more at 1B than DH. That still doesn't mean it was good. It's just that they had godawful options after trading C.J. Cron after 2017, at least bad options for 2018-19. Walsh was there, and the better option, last year, and Ohtani was of equal value at DH by OPS+.

Cardinals pitching upgrade, let's try this again

So, would another starting pitcher on the mound help the St. Louis Cardinals next year?

I say yes.

They don't need to replace Ozuna in the OF. That's more room for Tyler O'Neill, as well as the challenge to step up. Tommy Edman has already shown he can play there as well as the infield.

Assuming the Cardinals let Michael Wacha walk, they'll have room for a starter. And, with his money (let's assume something like the $6M this year) plus Ozuna's (let's say somebody pays him $16M a year), that's $22M a year.

Not even close to the two priciest pitchers.

But that's not needed.

Jack Flaherty could already be the No. 1 man. But, let's not count long-term chickens. We'll keep Miles Mikolas penciled at No. 2, if that. Maybe No. 3 if he regresses. So, some other pitcher in the Hamels-like tier would be fine. Carlos Martinez may or may not be a starter, and his latest shoulder issues? Don't hold your breath.

So,

Is $22M a year, dependent on contract length, enough to land Madison Bumgarner? Dallas Keuchel? Hyun-Jin Ryu. Possibly, on the first two, probably to certainly on the third. Any of those work at No. 2. MLB.com reports the Birds are interested in Bum. OTOH, it also notes he has high home-road splits the last three years, and some are of real concern.

(OK, I was wrong on Bum. The D-backs, and others, apparently took note of his massive home/road splits.)

Ryu, I'm kind of leery of, due to injury history. Bumgarner (other than in the off-season!), Keuchel and Hamels all have fairly long to long track records of durability. That said, Bum got the QO, so the Cards would have to give the draft pick back.

There's another consideration. Bumgarner isn't represented by a certain Scott Boras. The other two are.

There's another possibility, riffing on David Schoenfield's blockbuster trade idea. To help the Red Sox get under the lux tax line, rather than trading for Mookie Betts plus not-needed-he's-a-righty Nathan Eovaldi, and giving up too much back? Send Matt Carpenter for David Price plus letting the Sox dump enough other salary to be it worth their while but not kill the Cards.

Cards get their lefty starter. Price may have a second gust of energy coming over to the NL.

It would have to be more than a 1-for-1 straight up, in all likelihood. With Carp's extension, the Sox would save "only" $13.5 million per year. Per Cot's Contracts, that move alone gets them close, but not under. But, if they combine that with some judicious cutting elsewhere? They get below the tax line one year, reset, and then maybe resign Betts.

And you know? Jackie Bradley Jr. isn't that expensive for the Cards, but he would be enough to get you just below. And, MLB Trade Rumors says he could be an outfield boost. And that the Cards are looking for lefty bats, which he is one of. (They'd lose one with Carp, of course.) Other minor tweaking as necessary, preferably involving no MLB players except maybe whoever the Cards would dump off the 40-man to make the space.

But, besides him being a righty the Cards just don't need, they just don't need the overpaid Eovaldi.

That's why Redbird Rants is laughable.

First, Mo is not trading for Betts as a rent-a-player. He's traded for players on the last year of a contract before, but with the expectation he could resign them. I don't think Mo has plans to shell out 8/$260 or more for Betts.

Second, Mo is not trading away Edman. Period.

Third, he is not trading for Eovaldi, period.

And, the Sox could use Carp, at his old stomping ground of 2B, where they have a black hole right now.

That said, but, but, but ... Carp has a no-trade clause, right? The way I read it, though, it doesn't kick in until the start of 2020. And we're in the 2019 offseason. As others have noted, though, even if it is in effect now, he might waive it if his 2022 vesting is guaranteed. Right now, that's based on 550 ABs for 2020 and 2021, and he might not hit that with St. Louis.

No Lester — will the Sawks chase Hamels yet?

Cole Hamels —
next stop Boston?

Now that Jon Lester has inked his free agent contract with the Chicago Cubs instead of heading back to Boston, what will Red Sox GM Ben Cherington do next?

The general consensus is that if he wouldn't pay for Lester, then he sure won't pay for Max Scherzer.

And, if he was looking lefty-specific, too, that leaves trading for the Phillies' starter Cole Hamels as his next move.

So, if you're Ruben J. Amaro, with a chance to ask high — but yet realistically and not idiotically (you're wrong in your vote of confidence, Pat Gillick) — who do you want?

Here's a possibility.

I’d “accept” Allen Craig back with Mookie Betts and, say, Jackie Bradley plus top catching prospect Blake Swihart if I don’t push for Xander Bogaerts. (Jimmy Rollins is still OK, at least, so Bogaerts is not a "must," unlike OF upgrades.) Takes multiple OFs off Sawks hands, gambles on any sort of bounce back year from Craig, who can, of course, play 1B against righties if you don’t move Ryan Howard, or play 1B all the time if you do, and theoretically gives you your backstop of the future to replace Carlos Ruiz. And, by taking Craig's not small, but growing, contract, it does a bit of a financial "solid" back to Cherington while still reducing payroll and also building for the future.

Or, if you want to rebuild pitching, see if Matt Barnes might be in the mix.

This isn't set in stone, but something like this is quite realistic.

It's, note to Phils manager Ryne Sandberg? This is enough that it should "blow you away," as well as Ruben. And, it's something where you shouldn't idly sit by, waiting for Cherington to talk to you first, Ruben.

The package that ESPN suggests Theo would offer for Hamels? If it's lacking all three of Betts, Swihart and Barnes, I pass, if I'm Amaro. (And, Phillies fans, don't blame him if he does.) That's written from ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes and is as much PR for the Sawks as it is reality — it offers nothing but lower-level prospects and possibly Bradley as a throw-in.  And, that's far from the first time that Edes has written something that's as much PR as it is straight sports reporting, in my opinion.

For once in the past five years, Amaro is at least halfway in the driver's seat. Ask high, especially if you're willing to take Craig back on a gamble.

Besides, Hamels has better sabermetrics than Lester, albeit with a few more innings on his arm, and costs less, if only a touch less.

Of course, Boston is on Hamels' no-trade list, and may not change his mind.

As for a few fans, on HBT, who think it's ridiculous? "Aceepting" Craig back ... remember, his contract accelerates a lot in 2016 and 2017, and a bounce-back is a definite gamble ... would theoretically increase Amaro's haul. That's part of why I suggested it. It is a bit like eating some of Hamels' salary, but getting a small bit of return back. So, I think my idea is more reasonable than what Edes thinks the Sawks should offer. If Swihart is too much of an "ask" without return, offer Chooch back as part of the deal.

As for fans who would wonder why I could "tell" Theo this or that? I'm just blogging about a realistic trade possibility between two teams.

The #RedSox make no sense to me

Hanley Ramirez;
the Sawks' new
Manny Ramirez
(in their outfield)?
Apologies, Rush.

Signing both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez is what makes no sense.

San Pablo is overrated by many on defense. He had a negative dWAR in 2012 and 2013. He's only a mild career plus on total zone runs and a career zero on defensive runs saved. And, he's below league range factor. He has a career dWAR of just 0.9, and has never won a Gold Glove, let alone a Fielding Bible award. Glove quality may remain solid, but range factor will likely only continue to decline.

Ramirez? We know he's bad on defense. So, the Sawks are allegedly going to put him "out to pasture," so to speak, keep Xander Bogaerts at short and let Ramirez play the outfield. Turning him into a corner OF will be more fun yet. We'll either get to watch him figure out the Green Monster for a full year, looking even more futile than namesake Manny Ramirez, or else remind Sawks fans in right that Dewey Evans should be in the Hall and Hanley Ramirez never will be.

At the plate, Ramirez has about average pop for an AL corner OF. Not worse than, but not more than, either.

Pablo Sandoval, a
poor man's Ortiz
in three-four years.

Beyond that, just a month ago, Ben Cherington et al, including sports writers, were talking about the surfeit of outfielders there. Does this mean they're back-shelving Jackie Bradley? Will Daniel Nava be a non-tender in arbitration and get free agency? It surely means they're not resigning Yoenis Cespedes, but he's on contract for one more year. So is Shane Victorino. And Mike Napoli.

And, on contract for more than 1 year? Allen Craig. And Brock Holt seems to be out of the mix?

This also seems to give credence to the rumors that Boston coaches and manager John Farrell didn't like Cespedes, who is a near-equivalent of Ramirez at the bat, a natural outfielder, a much better defender, and two years younger.

I mean, it looks like Cherington is just throwing crap at a wall to see what sticks. Usually, in such cases, it's crap that sticks. We'll see if this set of moves is any different in about 6-9 months, but I predict there will be crap sticking to a wall called the Green Monster.

Also speaking of crap, given how Cespedes has already been kicked, I can't wait to hear the anonymously sourced comments after he's traded. And, no, Sawks fans, he's not going to draw nearly as much in trade as you think. Officially being coronated a backup outfielder, plus that backbiting from last month, guarantees that.

Well, if nothing else, we will have a good laugh, and an ongoing debate about the worst Ramirez outfielder in Boston history.

#Cardinals allegedly looking at Jon Lester

Jon Lester, the next
St. Louis Cardinal?

First, I have to say "allegedly," because it's Jim Bowden of ESPN making this claim, that the Cardinals and GM John Mozeliak are looking at free agent lefty Jon Lester, via a "source" who hasn't talked to anybody at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and, from what Baseball-Reference tells me, hasn't talked to St. Louis teevee or radio, either.

This is the Jim Bowden who discovered his personal version of the Peter Principle by falling upward from being a baseball GM to working at the Great Red Satan, after all

That said, is it possible? Yes, indeed.

(Update, Nov. 19: The Sawks have made an (initial?) offer of 6 years, reportedly $110-120M. They've come off their "no long term" stance, well above the midyear 2013 of 4 years, and $70M.)

Let's start by clearing up a bunch of factual crapola from Drew Silva at Hardball Talk, which is where I saw the Bowden claim.

Namely, the Cards do NOT have six legit starters.

Marco Gonzales began 2014 in AA at Springfield. He needs to begin 2015 at AAA in Memphis and spend a full season there. He was an emergency call-up last year.

Carlos Martinez has not (yet) proven himself to be a legitimate starter. In part, that's because he hasn't had a lot of opportunity to do so, but that's not the point. The point is that he isn't a legit starter now and Silva's wrong for claiming that.

And, while he's legit, John Lackey struggled a bit after coming over from Boston, and his contract expires after this year. And, he's five years older than Lester.

Adam Wainwright,
about to get a
co-ace in St. Louis?

Otherwise, Shelby Miller was of course traded in the deal earlier this week for Jason Heyward, Adam Wainwright just had (minor, we hope) elbow surgery and Michael Wacha's shoulder condition won't be better known until spring training approaches.

Actually, if one notes that Lester is two years younger than Waino, and has had less in the way of arm problems, kicking the tires on him, with the added advantage of him being a lefty, isn't a bad idea at all. Except for having just 190 innings in 2011, Lester has had at least 200 regular-season innings in every year he's pitched since becoming a full-season member of the Sawks.

I like the possibility — if, as always, the price is right.

I'd go above the four years that Boston offered Lester in the regular season last year, but no more than five — while maybe tacking on a mutual option year for year six.

Price? I wouldn't go much above $25M a year, if I'm going more than four years. Because I have to extend Lance Lynn (not just one arbitration year, Mo, but, say 4/$55 for his three arb years plus first year of free agency) and look at inking Heyward.

And, don't you have to give Waino a bit of bump on his contract to keep him happy? Maybe add $2.5M/year to boost it to $22M and add one option year to it?

#ESPN baseball writers blow it (again) on Peavy to #Cardinals rumors

Only yesterday, ESPN was fanning the flames of rumors that the Red Sox were going to move Jake Peavy to St. Louis and that, according to Jayson Stark, the move could "happen quick."

First, fans who know the Cards know they need an OF bat more than anything. And, that with Joe Kelly coming back from the DL sooner than expected, a rotation of Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Kelly had no room at the inn for an end-of-the-line Peavy.

Indeed, non-Cardinal fans also questioned the reality of this, figuring it was as much a salary dump move by Boston as anything, while perhaps trying to fan the flames of rumor, which on teh Twitter said that the Braves and Brewers both might be interested. (As for the idea that a GM wouldn't try that? Tosh ... and gentlemen do read each other's letters, and emails today, contra Henry Stimson.)

Yes, Peavy was scouted by the Cards last week; so was the whole Red Sox team, as the two play in August.

Underscoring the salary dump angle? The fact that the Sox just gave A.J. Pierzynski his DFA walking papers shows that the Peavy talk, from Boston's part, is at least half salary dump.

Yes, Peavy's long indicated interest in the Cardinals. But, an ERA+ of just 86 (with an FIP of 4.81 showing it is that bad) and a WHIP of 1.437? Peavy is replacing AA (now AAA) callup prospect Marco Gonzales with those numbers, but nothing more. He's not been above average, if that, the last two years, and been a very good or better pitcher since his Padres days. 

But, there is yet more.

As for ESPN's blatantly wrong overtouting of Peavy-to-Cards rumors, I want to take a look at this piece by the Post-Dispatch's Derrick Gould:

That does not resonate with the Cardinals who are "looking for offense" at this point and not a pitcher like Peavy, a source with knowledge of the team's strategy said.

The Cardinals have had an eye on the available pitchers for at least a month leading up to July and the trade deadline because they wanted to see if an upgrade for the rotation was possible, one that would create a trickle-down that also strengthened the bullpen. Their search has expanded to include starters who could also offer the team innings especially if the injuries persisted.

There's a bunch of stuff to unpack here.

First, note "the source." That could be Mo himself, speaking off the record so as not to piss off the Red Sox too much.

My guess is that Mo did a bit of "kick the tires" stuff, but nothing heavy at this time. And he certainly didn't plan on giving the Sox Allen Craig. Peter Bourjos, maybe. But Craig, for a pitcher who couldn't currently start for St. Louis, and would be a No. 5 only if Kelly weren't back? Not a chance. And, he got pissed that somebody in Boston nudged Jayston Stark and Gordon Edes over at ESPN to running something, and something that named the Cardinals first.

Second, note the timetable of "The Cardinals have had an eye on the available pitchers for at least a month leading up to July." Why? Because Kelly's self-believed Bo Jackson hamstring was taking longer to heal than expected, No. 1. No. 2, the Cards had some inkling of Wacha's problems by mid-June, and maybe knew something about Miller's back by then.

Well, Kelly's back, and Miller's back is no worse, at least. Carlos Martinez is continuing to stretch out his innings/pitches per start. So, that last sentence, the "Their search has expanded to include starters who could also offer the team innings especially if the injuries persisted," is pretty close to null and void.

And, the Red Sox knew that as of yesterday. So did Stark and Edes of ESPN, who started this.

Teh brilliants of ESPN swing and miss again!

#Cardinals trade rumors flying — Jake Peavy? Please, no

As the Cardinals struggle with injury to Michael Wacha and an uncertain-to-unlikely return, along with the longer-term loss of Jaime Garcia and the balky back of Shelby Miller, and as it seems that Tampa Bay is being greedy on what it wants in return for David Price, as it showed the A's in rejecting their offer last week, which included hot SS prospect Addison Russell, the Birds are rumored to be looking elsewhere for an arm.

Namely, Boston. Namely, Jake Peavy. (The Post Dispatch has more.)

And, I say, barf me.

That said, I don't think this baby has any legs. Not a peep about this out of, say Rosenthal. It’s prolly more ESPN hot air mixed with a BoSox trial balloon to see what fish bite.


Yes, he's long indicated interest in the Cardinals. But, an ERA+ of just 86 (with an FIP of 4.81 showing it is that bad) and a WHIP of 1.437? Peavy is replacing AA (now AAA) callup prospect Marco Gonzales with those numbers, but nothing more. He's not been above average, if that, the last two years, and been a very good or better pitcher since his Padres days.

Rumored asking price? Allen Craig.

Nope. Even though Craig is still struggling this year, either Boston eats about half of Peavy's contract or else throws in another player.

And, they're not trading Brock Holt, let alone Xander Bogaerts. And, contra one Cards fan commenting at NBC, I'll pass on Will Middlebrooks.

Mike Napoli would replace Craig in platooning 1B with Matt Adams, and could be, theoretically, asked to go behind the plate again, but, he's $16M each of the next two years.

If the Sox want a straight-up trade as a salary dump, I'd give them Peter Bourjos, but not much more.

Or, swap salary dumps. The declining Matt Holliday, if he'll waive his no-trade, for Peavy plus, say, Mike Carp, plus prospects. That opens full-time play for Oscar Taveras for sure. And, since Holliday's contract runs through 2017, this wold be a good long-term move.

I know that's an off-the-wall idea, but, Holliday's back's gotten more balky this year, and his general rate of decline has increased. Plus, without a good defensive CF out there every day, his increasing lack of range becomes more visible too. In the AL, you wouldn't have to DH him every day; you could mix LF and DH and maybe get him to learn 1B.

Anyway, if Cards are lucky, this may not happen for other reasons. Twitter rumors say the Braves and Brew Crew are also both kicking the Peavy tires. 

Also, the ESPN rumor, which Derek Goold has now given a good, swift kick, is coming from ESPN. Take it with a big grain of salt, especially as other sports outlets haven't provided any confirmation.

As for Rays management? Your Price clock is ticking. Not the July 31 clock, which, in your greed, is likely to pass by without result.

No, your March 31, 2015 contract. With the start of next year's season, Price, with a new team losing the QO right, officially enters rent-a-player stage.

It's once again time to swat down the David Ortiz Hall of Fame claims

Craig Calcaterra at NBC is the latest to get on my wrong side regarding David Ortiz and the HOF, with this, over Ortiz's bitching about an official scorer's ruling:

Let’s ... focus of the pettiness of a guy with a Hall of Fame resume throwing a little temper tantrum over a scoring call that will matter not one iota in the course of this season let alone his career.

Is Ortiz already a member of the "Hall of Very Good"? Yes.

Hall of Fame? No. As I said in comments there:

Right now, in my opinion, he’s borderline … or even borderline of borderline. Barely at 2K hits, yet to hit 1,500 RBIs, despite playing AL and almost all at DH. Never has broken 7 WAR in a season per B-Ref, and only once, 4 WAA.

So, nice, but not huge.

I then linked to Jay Jaffe's JAWS list for first basemen, where he's only 33rd. I then noted:

Of the 1B ahead of him on JAWS, who aren’t yet in the HOF, there’s a number who will likely not get there at all. Keith Hernandez, Todd Helton, John Olerud, Will Clark, Mark Teixeira (yes), Fred McGriff, Norm Cash, Dolph Camilli (yes!). 

I added that this did NOT include PEDers like Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire. And yes, with Ortiz's name having been on a certain list linked to the New York Times, and his stats zoom when going from Boston to Minnesota, we (at least those of us who consider this a factor in general) have to take that into account, too. (As for the reality of that factor, I say it's at least "possible.)

Other people then trotted out the "but the World Series" arguments. I countered:

Don Larsen. Kirk Gibson. David Freese. Luis Gonzales.

All great WS performances. All arguably more outstanding than any single WS performance. Freese will be lucky to enter the front doors as a guest with paying double admission. Gibby’s never going to be there (and never made an All-Star team). Ditto for Larsen (and Gonzales, off the ballot after his first year this year).

If you just want “Hall of Very Good” types, I can specifically go there for a few more. Joe Carter. Bill Mazerowski who shouldn’t be in there.

So, not yet, at least, a HOFer. And, for a 1B/DH, where you carry an extra offensive burden to qualify, not THAT close.

As for what he does need to qualify? I said, assuming he plays his two guaranteed years, with enough ABs that his first optional year vests, and then, enough ABs in 2016 his second option year vests:

If he could do his, say, 2010 slashes of .270/.370/.530/.900 (rounded the slugging up 1 percentage point for nice numbers) the rest of this year and the next, and, for his last two, produce, say .255/.350/.500/.850, he’ll probably have a solid case. But, right now, he’s not even on that lower pace this year.

A finish-out like that?

He's likely be at about 2,600 hits, 1,800 RBIs, 510 HRs on counting stats. On sabermetrics, we'll give him 135 on career OPS+,  20 on career WAA and 51 on career WAR. That's allowing for his games played to decline a bit each year.

The WAA is still low in my book, but 1B/DH is a tough competition slot. On JAWS, he'd jump four places, to No. 29.

So, four years from now, at his position, he's not a slam dunk.

And, per yet another commenter on Craig's link, he may be pissed, and scrapping for base hits by scorer's change of mind, because he's not even close to what I noted:

He’s hitting .190/.301/.413 in the month of June and .163/.290/.327 over the last thirty days. Ugly numbers.

Not too good.

Counting stats aren't everything, but, if he finishes below 2,500 hits and below 500 HRs, I don't see him getting in.

Boo-hoo for Scott Boras and Stephen Drew

Looks like superagent Scott Boras and client Stephen Drew, on one side, and the Boston Red Sox, on the other, have mutually imploded.

Boston, frustrated by the play of Will Middlebrooks, has resigned Drew for a prorated percentage of the $14.1 million qualifying offer it gave him as a free agent.

Middlebrooks is below the "Mendoza Line," named after baseballer Mario Mendoza of hitting infamy, but above the Kozma Line, named for Cardinals shortstop Pete Kozma of sabermetric hitting infamy.

I assume that, since Drew is the new kid on the block, he replaces Middlebrooks at third rather than John Farrell moving Xander Bogaerts over from short. Since Middlebrooks is headed to the DL, that's obvious for the short term. But, I assume it stays that way after he comes back.

It's also interesting that Boston decided not to go with Brock Holt as a stopgap during Middlebrooks' injury, or for the longer term. It makes one wonder if Middlebrooks won't be staying in AAA down at Pawtucket even after his rehab is done.

This does have implications outside of Boston in an AL East that so far has been an example of craptacularness.

The Yankees lead, but with CC Sabathia now on the DL, that ain't lasting. No matter how good a manager Joe Girardi is. And, they have nothing to trade with. If Carlos Beltran is also racked up for an extended period of time, forget it.

Tampa? Could increase the pressure to trade David Price, good overall but enigmatic this year with new-found gopherballitis.

Orioles? Color me meh, and Nelson Cruz will come back to earth.

Don't sleep on Toronto, if it can rehab its bullpen.

So, this helps Boston out, but it is nowhere near a "driver's seat" move.

Anyway, back to the world of Scott Boras below the fold.

Great new bio of Ted Williams out

The Kid: The Immortal Life of Ted Williams by Ben Bradlee Jr.

My rating: 5 of 5 stars


This should be the final word on Ted Williams.

It's more in-depth than anything else I've read about his almost manic (in a clinical psychology sense) depth of anger and the childhood sources of it, namely, anger at his mother for her endless time and monetary devotion to the Salvation Army but lack thereof to him, and anger and embarrassment at his mom and mom's family for being Mexican-American, most of them notably so both by skin tone and, presumably, by language as first-generation immigrants.

Bradlee shows how this anger then seemed to get "transferred" to women in Williams' tumultuous personal life, with wives, lovers and mistresses, and, in the case of wives, bad parenting of, and anger at, his three kids. Yet, for children not his own, as Bradlee shows with things like the Jimmy Fund and more, perhaps thinking of his own childhood, Williams could be unfailingly kind and loving. Indeed, Bradlee compares him, and his family background, to Babe Ruth.

At the same time, primarily vis-a-vis Boston sportswriters, Williams used this anger, often creating slights out of molehills, to fuel his drive as a batter.

Bradlee also covers Ted's politics, his anger at the Marines over his Korea call-up and more, including his ambivalent relationship to his fame, and sometimes sycophancy around him.

Bradlee also knows his sports, though, and writes well about this, including the long-running comparisons to Joe DiMaggio and Ted's relation with teammates like Dom DiMaggio and Johnny Pesky, as well as his call for Hall of Fame induction of Negro League stars like Satchel Paige and his support of Jackie Robinson, Pumpsie Green, Larry Doby and more.

I pictured Ted today, with a Twitter account, after reading this bio. Any player who threw a double bird separately, to left, center, and right fields would be hell on wheels in today's plugged-in world. As for today's sports journalism world, Williams would probably take great delight in pissing off more people than he could have dreamed of 60 years ago.


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Should Boston give David Ortiz a 2-year extension?

Red Sox slugger David Ortiz has gotten pretty adamant about this. He now says that he'll look at walking off after this year, when his current contract runs out, if Boston doesn't give him a two-year deal, presumably to end his career after his age-40 season.


That said, he hasn't hinted at numbers he wants, nor indicated if 1 + a player option (albeit at lower $$ than the guaranteed year) will fit the bill.


If I'm Boston, I don't even begin to think about this until midseason. He is 38. Outside of his more obvious dings in 2008 and 2012, he's not had 550 ABs in a season since 2006, or 150 games played since 2007.


About August, I'd start doing assessing. If it looks like he'll at least end above 2010's statistical line, I'm prepared to cut him a two-year check, likely a full two years. If we're in that "vicinity," but not better, I'm leaning one + player option, with that option year less on cash, but perhaps with some incentives. That's definitely true if he's below his 2008 level.


And, if by mid-August, it looks like Boston has the 2009 Ortiz, he only gets a one-year deal, unless he wants a healthy pay cut as part of this.

Post-Tanaka, one pitcher missing in trade rumors

With Masahiro Tanaka now signed, the MLB rumor mill has moved on to not only further free agent dominoes, but the possibility of trades of top pitchers.

We hear plenty about David Price. Some about James Shields. Even a bit about Max Scherzer.

Where's Cliff Lee in the mix?

He's signed for two more years plus an option, so under more control than any of the above three. Generally good health, for another plus. And, a lefty.

All we need now is for Ruben Amaro to finally push the "rebuild" button.

And, here's a "possible."

Sending Uncle Cliffy to the Red Sox.

For whom?

Let's say Will Middlebrooks, Mike Carp, and a minor league pitching prospect and a minor league OF or SS prospect.

That, especially with Jon Lester willing to give Boston a home discount on a contract extension, plus the possibility of rolling over John Lackey's 2015 option into a new contract, gives the Sox a great top of the rotation. And, they can then let both Jake Peavy and Ryan Dempster walk after this year, or trade one of them now. That, in turn, frees up free agent money for 2015.

It also lets Boston address the jam on the left half of the infield by resigning Stephen Drew and going with him and Xander Bogaerts.  And, it certainly lets the Phillies rebuild, and get younger.

If not Boston, I'm sure there are other "possibles." Would the Rangers be interested? It would probably be more prospects and fewer MLB players in a trade from them. The Mariners?

Why don't I think the Phillies would get more?

Lee's 35 this season, for one thing. I noted he's generally been healthy, but, at some point, he's likely to start running out of gas in the tank. 

Second, as runs on pitchers have shown, they're that valuable. So, getting a top minor league prospect, maybe even two, would definitely help for the long term.

Third, Philly is a batters' park. Freeing up his salary lets them focus on restocking on position players in free agency, per the link.